Not all banks are greedy: Wells Fargo shares up 25%

[Dawoofdaddy]

QL, ive made thousands of posts here and if you dont know what im bullish about now, I dont suspect you ever will.

I used to post more about shorter term moves, but I realized it was more about an ego stroke to post up to the minute updates, so for the most part I no longer do that.

Frankly, other than posting cut/pastes you find about whatever bullish news you want to post, I dont really see where you have added any actual insight from your own mind/knowledge about the economy whats going on or going to happen.

You act as if everything Ive posted here I found in a box of Cracker Jack.

I dont post to impress you...never have, never will. What is it that you really need supporting evidence about? Record home foreclosures, gold at record levels, oil well above $100, $5 diesel fuel, layoffs, bear stearns going bust, dollar being smashed...Im pretty sure I posted about all those things LONG BEFORE it happened.

Our govt printed unprecedented amounts of money to keep market from plunging. they got dow jones (which is only 30 stocks anyway) to record high last year. meanwhile nasdaq was still half what it was 8 years prior, s&p unchanged. now alot of that move has vanished, home prices fell, dollar in tank, debt has soared, and various commodities also soared.

Ive posted about these financial crises three years ago here. Nobody is correct 100%. You disagreed then, so there is no reason to expect anything different from you today.

One would think you would have opened your eyes by now, but apparently you still havent. I dont really think it will matter what I post, since you and I look at things differently, thats just how its going to be regarding your attitude about me.

Reality is that while you are working your regular job, people like myself are closely watching numerous markets.

Ive made my living for many years now trading markets. I dont work at some firm (other than my own company), I dont make my living via someone elses timeclock.

I really find it strange that guys like yourself that are professionals in other fields actually think you know as much as people that have studied the subject in depth.

You havent understood something as basic as inflation and how it alters whats really going in the economy and stock market.

Its similar than if I decided to read a few articles online about computers and actually believe I knew as much about the subject as yourself. That would be quite foolish imo.

Ive allowed myself to miss part of happy hour replying to you, but I wont miss it all.

Later.

:drink:

 

[tiznow]

ge's big problem near term is they do rely on financials quite a bit reason they getting routed with everybody

think sub 10 p/e in their future before its all said and done

they sell their CCs yet? think they were up for sale not sure if anybody bought um

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

But an honest question here, I see that in the mid-90's the banking sector shot up to the low 90's and stayed there even during the crash of 2001+. Any reason that it stayed buoyant during that time? Just wondering.

Last post. Honestly, for Im thirsty.

This post is being fired from the hip via what Ive learned, so sorry no links are being posted to verify what Im typing.

Part of it was that the market discounted the interest rate cuts and thats why banks and brokerages did well.

For the most part, the stock market in present time, discounts (predicts) the future.

When the nasdaq bubble collapsed, the fed had to create another bubble to keep the entire economy from collapsing.

What did they do? They artificially cut interest rates, ran huge deficits, printed alot of money, relaxed loan oversight, which in turn sucked everyone into believing they could become the next donald trump borrowing easy money to buy homes and forever make 100% every few years.

Also, they were involved with the real estate, subprime, cdo, scams.

Bear Stearns was front and center and we now see what happened to them.

Same things regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

People were using home equity (which we see now was a lie) to subsidize their lifestyle and thus keep economy afloat.

The govt cannot allow the stock market to collapse in nominal terms, for unlike your early adult years, today everybody has a stake in the stock market.

401k, personal accounts, state pension funds, universities, etc...all in on the gag.

Thus, if the govt has to print money to keep the gag from failing, thats what they have been doing and thats what they will continue doing.

There are no bailouts without something else happening. If so, we would all be billionaires.

In the end none of what they are doing is going to matter. As doom & gloom as you want to call it, the American economy is going to have to go through an extended downturn.

Ive posted this before, if they decide to continue inflating the money supply to keep markets afloat and/or not collapsing, the dollar will continue tanking, commodities will continue rising, and thus any return you think you are getting owning things such as bank stocks should be weighed vs the actual inflation rate.

You may find individual gems like WFC has so far held up relative within its sector, but the overall market is not going to outperform inflation until the larger problems such as real estate overcapacity and excess debt are resolved.

 

[tiznow]

Thus, if the govt has to print money to keep the gag from failing, thats what they have been doing and thats what they will continue doing.

There are no bailouts without something else happening.

In the end none of what they are doing is going to matter. As doom & gloom as you want to call it, the American economy is going to have to go through an extended downturn.

japan did the same thing

the end result?

deflation

:howdy:

and japanese actually had some savings :smoking:

greenspan honestly was correct when he said he was fighting deflation and what did he get an inflationary bubble

this time i don't think the fed can win the fight as there are no more bubbles to create

they just have to deflate :nohead:

enjoy your beers :toast:

 

[quantumleap]

QL, ive made thousands of posts here and if you dont know what im bullish about now, I dont suspect you ever will.

I used to post more about shorter term moves, but I realized it was more about an ego stroke to post up to the minute updates, so for the most part I no longer do that.

Frankly, other than posting cut/pastes you find about whatever bullish news you want to post, I dont really see where you have added any actual insight from your own mind/knowledge about the economy whats going on or going to happen.

You act as if everything Ive posted here I found in a box of Cracker Jack.

I dont post to impress you...never have, never will. What is it that you really need supporting evidence about? Record home foreclosures, gold at record levels, oil well above $100, $5 diesel fuel, layoffs, bear stearns going bust, dollar being smashed...Im pretty sure I posted about all those things LONG BEFORE it happened.

Our govt printed unprecedented amounts of money to keep market from plunging. they got dow jones (which is only 30 stocks anyway) to record high last year. meanwhile nasdaq was still half what it was 8 years prior, s&p unchanged. now alot of that move has vanished, home prices fell, dollar in tank, debt has soared, and various commodities also soared.

Ive posted about these financial crises three years ago here. Nobody is correct 100%. You disagreed then, so there is no reason to expect anything different from you today.

One would think you would have opened your eyes by now, but apparently you still havent. I dont really think it will matter what I post, since you and I look at things differently, thats just how its going to be regarding your attitude about me.

Reality is that while you are working your regular job, people like myself are closely watching numerous markets.

Ive made my living for many years now trading markets. I dont work at some firm (other than my own company), I dont make my living via someone elses timeclock.

I really find it strange that guys like yourself that are professionals in other fields actually think you know as much as people that have studied the subject in depth.

You havent understood something as basic as inflation and how it alters whats really going in the economy and stock market.

Its similar than if I decided to read a few articles online about computers and actually believe I knew as much about the subject as yourself. That would be quite foolish imo.

Ive allowed myself to miss part of happy hour replying to you, but I wont miss it all.

Later.

:drink:

WOOF, I think everyone here knows that you are knowledgeable in the world of economics. When you post statements without support those statements can be taken multiple ways. Without support your points can be mistaken for something other than what you mean or may be one-sided as your posts often are without taking into consideration the other side. People take this to be your opinion, not necessarily fact. Hey, everyone has their own opinion and I'm glad to hear yours.

As far as I am concerned, I am only bringing up the fact that the entire economy is not gloom and doom. Too many people get the wrong idea and think the entire economy is in trouble when it is not. I have admitted that there are some sectors that are in trouble. However, the entire economy is not going to deflate. That is the point I'm trying to make.
:toast:

 

[quantumleap]

Last post. Honestly, for Im thirsty.

This post is being fired from the hip via what Ive learned, so sorry no links are being posted to verify what Im typing.

Part of it was that the market discounted the interest rate cuts and thats why banks and brokerages did well.

For the most part, the stock market in present time, discounts (predicts) the future.

When the nasdaq bubble collapsed, the fed had to create another bubble to keep the entire economy from collapsing.

What did they do? They artificially cut interest rates, ran huge deficits, printed alot of money, relaxed loan oversight, which in turn sucked everyone into believing they could become the next donald trump borrowing easy money to buy homes and forever make 100% every few years.

Also, they were involved with the real estate, subprime, cdo, scams.

Bear Stearns was front and center and we now see what happened to them.

Same things regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

People were using home equity (which we see now was a lie) to subsidize their lifestyle and thus keep economy afloat.

The govt cannot allow the stock market to collapse in nominal terms, for unlike your early adult years, today everybody has a stake in the stock market.

401k, personal accounts, state pension funds, universities, etc...all in on the gag.

Thus, if the govt has to print money to keep the gag from failing, thats what they have been doing and thats what they will continue doing.

There are no bailouts without something else happening. If so, we would all be billionaires.

In the end none of what they are doing is going to matter. As doom & gloom as you want to call it, the American economy is going to have to go through an extended downturn.

Ive posted this before, if they decide to continue inflating the money supply to keep markets afloat and/or not collapsing, the dollar will continue tanking, commodities will continue rising, and thus any return you think you are getting owning things such as bank stocks should be weighed vs the actual inflation rate.

You may find individual gems like WFC has so far held up relative within its sector, but the overall market is not going to outperform inflation until the larger problems such as real estate overcapacity and excess debt are resolved.

Good stuff WOOFER. I have learned a few things from this post. I look forward to reading more of your posts.

 

[Anonymous1]

"this time i don't think the fed can win the fight as there are no more bubbles to create"

so, you don't think the feds will continue to print pesos in vast amounts and let a bubble develop on its own-whatever it would be, are they then going to keep things status quo...

 

[tiznow]

japan tried didn't work

obviously they gonna try and are doing so you can see it in living color

question is can they get it done

so far no luck

stocks deflated from 14000 to 11000 thus far

japan trying it since 1990 finally got some inflation going in japan now (40k to 12.5k since than)

only wild card is our consumer is much more sheepish and not big savers like the japanese

likely easier to get drawn back into no money down flat screens and cars and such.....but some will have learned their lesson

 

[quantumleap]

I really find it strange that guys like yourself that are professionals in other fields actually think you know as much as people that have studied the subject in depth.

You havent understood something as basic as inflation and how it alters whats really going in the economy and stock market.

Its similar than if I decided to read a few articles online about computers and actually believe I knew as much about the subject as yourself. That would be quite foolish imo.

Just wanted to touch on this point as I missed it earlier. As I mentioned in my previous post, even experienced economists can have quite different viewpoints on the same subject. Just because you are an expert in your field doesn't mean everything you say is right and cannot be contested. Perhaps your viewpoint is correct but stresses one aspect and people get the wrong idea as to what you are getting at from your posts.

As far as my field, or any other complex field goes, I don't know the complete ins and outs of the computer world. It would be possible for you to read up on aspects of the computer field and to be more knowledgeable on those aspects than I am. Same thing for doctors. They don't know the complete knowledge of every aspect of being a doctor. That's why they specialize.

 

[Anonymous1]

reading the released fed minutes of may today, seems to point to a much more hawkish view of needing a rate increase than a decrease, and that is not a deflationist view as i understand. japan just continued to reduce rates chasing consumers who, as you mentioned, are much more likely to save then spend as j6p...besides the us economy is much more diversified than japan and obviously larger...

 

[tiznow]

well other than necessities food, oil etc....alot of things (low dependence on oil) currently deflating in the shit you don't need realm

thus the reason inflation isn't reported as humongous

this christmas expect to see massive deflation in the shit you don't need zone

shirt at banana republic costs probably a buck to make in china yet it goes for 60 bucks.....that will change and is right now

 

[tiznow]

the inflation numbers IMO only relevant to mulimillionaires that tend to participate in every sector of the economy

for J6P that is living paycheck to paycheck trying to just put food on the table, cool his home, fill up his car to commute to work on crowded highway infrastructure, and pay the mortgage/rent inflation is astronomical....for now

 

[Anonymous1]

thats okay, supply and demand are one thing and their elasticity is much different than food, and the necessities...

 

[tiznow]

yeah i don't see oil and food plummeting big time

especially food at least this year as mother nature not helping with that...

heating bills this winter gonna be nuts too...although natty gas has fallen from 13.5 to 11.5 since the peak....still high though was 8 last year

but i think the reported inflation numbers which takes into consideration all parts of the economy will start going negative eventually

 

[Anonymous1]

Either oil is too expensive or America is too cheap.

The value of the U.S., in barrels:
<TABLE><CAPTION></CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH>Year</TH><TH>Household net worth* </TH><TH>Price of oil</TH><TH>Barrels to buy America</TH></TR><TR><TD>1970
</TD><TD>$3.4 trillion
</TD><TD>$3.18
</TD><TD>1.1 trillion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1975
</TD><TD>$5.1 trillion
</TD><TD>$7.67
</TD><TD>670.3 billion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1980
</TD><TD>$9.5 trillion
</TD><TD>$21.59
</TD><TD>438.6 billion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1985
</TD><TD>$14.2 trillion
</TD><TD>$24.09
</TD><TD>589.7 billion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1990
</TD><TD>$20.3 trillion
</TD><TD>$20.03
</TD><TD>1.1 trillion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1995
</TD><TD>$27.7 trillion
</TD><TD>$14.62
</TD><TD>1.9 trillion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>1998
</TD><TD>$37.4 trillion
</TD><TD>$11.18
</TD><TD>3.3 trillion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>2004
</TD><TD>$48.1 trillion
</TD><TD>$42.00
</TD><TD>1.1 trillion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>2007
</TD><TD>$57.7 trillion
</TD><TD>$120.00
</TD><TD>481 billion
</TD></TR><TR><TD>2008
</TD><TD>$56 trillion**
</TD><TD>$140.00
</TD><TD>400 billion
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Check this out, this may give you some insight as to what is happening...

 

[tiznow]

foreign consumption/tourism a major factor in helping out our economy now as far as too cheap goes

you'll continue to see much more of that

that said in the life of a day to day american things in the shit you don't need arena are overpriced relative to income

the big problem with our economy going forward is that that eventually is all the overcapacity that was allowed to expand due to the easy credit, using home as ATM days needs to get flushed out

we are gonna have to change the landscape to fit a paycheck to paycheck living off income type economy....and that's not easy since our job market is now very dependent on the service sector and all the manufacturing is gone and not coming back any time soon

 

[tiznow]

gonna be a super super rough environment (already is) for your J6P that doesn't have much upstairs blue collar worker

 

[Anonymous1]

foreign consumption/tourism a major factor in helping out our economy now as far as too cheap goes (cheap dollar)

you'll continue to see much more of that (if rates stay down, otherwise no)

that said in the life of a day to day american things in the shit you don't need arena are overpriced relative to income (basic supply and demand)

the big problem with our economy going forward is that that eventually is all the overcapacity that was allowed to expand due to the easy credit, using home as ATM days needs to get flushed out (taking place as we converse)

we are gonna have to change the landscape to fit a paycheck to paycheck living off income type economy....and that's not easy since our job market is now very dependent on the service sector and all the manufacturing is gone and not coming back any time soon

(wages are not likely to drop, in time this will reinvent itself)

 

[quantumleap]

well other than necessities food, oil etc....alot of things (low dependence on oil) currently deflating in the shit you don't need realm

thus the reason inflation isn't reported as humongous

this christmas expect to see massive deflation in the shit you don't need zone

shirt at banana republic costs probably a buck to make in china yet it goes for 60 bucks.....that will change and is right now

Already happening in some areas such as SUVs.

 

[ScottL]

Hmmm...Someone's posts have vanished from this thread.