Nick The Greek's 2009 MMA Picks

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I don't get the point in gambling on every single fight. Some fights just don't have any value.

To each it's own I guess.
 

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you guys are morons. let him make his picks, if you're some schlep who can't do their own research, then you deserve it.

seriously, shit like this:

You should try betting, it makes a world of difference when selecting picks, and is probably more relevant to gamblers.

In gambling, its not so much about taking the right fighter to win, its about taking the right bets to make money.

is ridiculous. how exactly do you make the right bet to make money if you don't pick the right fighter to win? value is in winning. +800 bagillion on a fighter that's going to lose, just send me your money.
 

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I'm just picking the fights. Whether they're favorites or dogs, as long as you pick the winner, you win.

Went 6-3 on my DREAM.11 picks.

MMA YTD: 143-76 (65.3%)

UFC 104 Picks to Win
Rob Kimmons(-170)
Kyle Kingsbury(-125)
Chase Gormley(-250)
Yushin Okami(-270)
Antoni Hardonk(-150)
Ryan Bader(-450)
Josh Neer(+105)
Joe Stevenson(-270)
Anthony Johnson(-450)
Cain Velasquez(-350)
Lyoto Machida(-375)

DREAM.12 Picks to Win
Marius Zaromskis(-450)
Katsuyori Shibata(-250)
Kuniyoshi Hironaka(-275)
Zelg Galesic(-170)
Chase Beebe(-145)
Eddie Alvarez(-450)
Alistair Overeem(-1800)

Full breakdowns here: http://www.picksology.net/
 

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you guys are morons. let him make his picks, if you're some schlep who can't do their own research, then you deserve it.

seriously, shit like this:

You should try betting, it makes a world of difference when selecting picks, and is probably more relevant to gamblers.

In gambling, its not so much about taking the right fighter to win, its about taking the right bets to make money.

is ridiculous. how exactly do you make the right bet to make money if you don't pick the right fighter to win? value is in winning. +800 bagillion on a fighter that's going to lose, just send me your money.

LOL. You clearly don't know much about long run statistics thus long run value in underdogs. A gambler can go 50-50 on their record and still make money. Just because you pick right 70% in straight picks, doesn't mean you'd make money. Value is in the RIGHT RISK AT THE RIGHT PRICE, not winning alone. Keep betting your heavy favorites and tell me how you do.
 

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you guys are morons. let him make his picks, if you're some schlep who can't do their own research, then you deserve it.

seriously, shit like this:

You should try betting, it makes a world of difference when selecting picks, and is probably more relevant to gamblers.

In gambling, its not so much about taking the right fighter to win, its about taking the right bets to make money.

is ridiculous. how exactly do you make the right bet to make money if you don't pick the right fighter to win? value is in winning. +800 bagillion on a fighter that's going to lose, just send me your money.

Bet on value. Don't just bet on who you think will win. The way to make money is to find where the odds are wrong and exploit it. If you think a guy should be favored MORE, bet on him. If you think he has a better chance to win then what they are giving him, bet on him.

With all the juice just betting on who you think will win will not work in the long run. You could be 80% betting on only favorites and still lose money.

Your logic fails and I'm sure you lose lots of money gambling on MMA that way.
 

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Eliot Marshall(+110)
Vitor Belfort(+110)
Hata(+120)
Minowa(+145)

3 of my last 4 underdog picks won. I take dogs who I believe will win. I don't pick underdogs for the sake of picking underdogs or because a line is tempting.

And it needs to be clear that these aren't plays by me. These are simply predictions.
 

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Eliot Marshall(+110)
Vitor Belfort(+110)
Hata(+120)
Minowa(+145)

Minowa to beat Sokodjou?

I love Minowa and will be rooting for him, but I don't think that line is right (not questioning if it's the real line, I just think it's a bad line). I think he should be at least a 2/1 underdog. Soko trains with Team Quest and I think he is too explosive for Minowa. I'm sure he's training his leg lock defense exclusively as well.
 

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Minowa to beat Sokodjou?

I love Minowa and will be rooting for him, but I don't think that line is right (not questioning if it's the real line, I just think it's a bad line). I think he should be at least a 2/1 underdog. Soko trains with Team Quest and I think he is too explosive for Minowa. I'm sure he's training his leg lock defense exclusively as well.

No. That was from the Minowa/Hong Man fight. I was just showing it as an example of some successful underdog picks I've made.

11-7 combined record on UFC 104 and DREAM.12

UFC/MMA YTD: 154-83 (65%)

Strikeforce Picks to Win
Silva(+120)
Mousasi(-650)
Shields(-325)
Fedor(-625)

BTW, you can now follow me on Twitter.
 

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3-1 on last week’s Strikeforce picks.



UFC/MMA YTD: 157-84 (65.1%)

My UFC 105 Picks to Win - Breakdowns here

Winner(-500)
Hathaway(-250)
Etim(-450)
Riddle(-300)
Siver(+300)
Hamman(-160)
Riley(-205)
Brown(155)
Kang(-130)
Hardy(+190)
Vera(-110)
 

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Went 6-5 on my UFC 105 picks, don't worry these picks will be better.

UFC/MMA YTD: 163-89 (64.7%)

UFC 106 Picks to Win
Brock Larson(-600)
Fabricio Camoes(+150)
George Sotiropolous(-500)
Marcus Davis(-220)
Jake Rosholt(-185)
Jacob Volkmann(+190)
Amir Sadollah(-200)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira(-160)
Anthony Johnson(-125)
Tito Ortiz(+110)

Read the breakdowns here.
 

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Not so hot on my UFC 106 picks, just went 3-7. I promise you that won’t happen again.

UFC/MMA YTD: 166-96 (63.4%)

Mark Bocek(-500)
Darrill Schoonover(-105)
Justin Wren(-500)
Dennis Hallman(+190)
Brian Stann(-125)
Frank Edgar(-625)
Marcus Jones(-340)
Kimbo Slice(+260)
Jon Jones(-325)
Roy Nelson(-220)
 

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I would really like to see your unit breakdown. You are betting big dogs and favs so you should have your unit breakdown too.
 

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5-5 on the TUF 10 Finale. Did get the Kimbo upset.

UFC/MMA YTD: 171-101 (62.9%)

UFC 107 Picks to Win
Hendricks(-500)
Grant(-130)
Palhares(-350)
Garcia(-250)
Wiman(-340)
Buentello(EVEN)
Belcher(-125)
Fitch(-500)
Florian(-220)
Kongo(+180)
Penn(-275)
 

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I had a very strong performance on last week’s UFC 107 card going 8-3 in my picks. Expect more of the same on these picks for tomorrow’s MMA action.

UFC/MMA YTD: 179-104 (63.3%)

WEC 45 Picks
Rani Yahya(+160)
Scott Jorgensen(+145)
Chris Horodecki(+150)
Donald Cerrone(-500)
StrikeForce Picks
Ronaldo Souza(-270)
Mo Lawal(-800)
Cung Le(-500)
Gilbert Melendez(-115)

COMPLETE BREAKDOWNS HERE.
 

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I had a very strong performance on last week’s UFC 107 card going 8-3 in my picks. Expect more of the same on these picks for tomorrow’s MMA action.

UFC/MMA YTD: 179-104 (63.3%)

WEC 45 Picks
Rani Yahya(+160)
Scott Jorgensen(+145)
Chris Horodecki(+150)
Donald Cerrone(-500)
StrikeForce Picks
Ronaldo Souza(-270)
Mo Lawal(-800)
Cung Le(-500)
Gilbert Melendez(-115)

COMPLETE BREAKDOWNS HERE.

Wow Lawal is now -800? wow.......
 

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These will be the final picks of the year as 2009 draws to a close. I went 5-3 on my combined WEC and StrikeForce pick’s from a couple weeks back. Expect me to go out on a high note as I breakdown the biggest Japanese MMA show of the year.

UFC/MMA YTD: 184-107 (63.2%)

Dynamite 09 Picks to Win
Alistair Overeem(-1100)
Rameua Thierry Sokoudjou(-285)
Hiroshi Izumi(+105)
Hiroyuki Takaya(-135)
Akihiro Gono(+175)
Hideo Tokoro(-215)
Kid Yamamoto(-550)
Tatsuya Kawajiri(-550)
Mizuto Hirota(+300)
Melvin Manhoef(+160)
Gegard Mousasi(-1100)
Satoshi Ishii(-280)

Read Full Breakdowns Here
 

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I went 7-5 on the Dynamite 09 NYE show to end up with a record of 191-112 (63%) in my MMA picks for 2009.

Thanks to everyone for following and check out my new 2010 MMA Picks thread.
 

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