Some betting ideas
Under 5.5 goals
With both of these teams being off for over a week, don’t be shocked if we see a little offensive rust and tighter play right off the bat. A more rested Hurricanes team played far tighter games against the
Islanders in Round 1, with three of the six games featuring five or fewer goals. The season series between the Panthers and Hurricanes also trended toward the under with each team posting one shutout over the three regular season games they played. Finally, the Hurricanes were also one of the stingiest teams to play against at home this season and as a team hit the third most unders for betting purposes when playing at home.
Despite Florida being a high-powered offense — and Carolina showing much better in the goal-scoring department in Round 2 — the goaltending should also be a difference maker for under bettors with Sergei Bobrovsky and Frederik Andersen having posted save percentages of .931 and .918, respectively, this postseason. With solid +105 odds and offenses that may lack sharpness, it’s a good time to be contrarian and take the under.
The Hurricanes top line center should play a huge role in this series. Aho averaged over 20:00 minutes a game in the final two games against New Jersey and with us only a series away from the Stanley Cup, I would expect that kind of usage to become the norm going forward. While his shot totals were down against New Jersey it’s worth noting that the
Devils were one of the best at limiting shots against both in the playoffs and regular season. However, the Panthers are a different story.
Florida has allowed over 35.0 shots per game against this postseason and nearly 32.0 shots per game during the regular season. Aho totaled 11 shots on net in three games against the Panthers during the regular season and with solid -105 odds is a great over target in this department for Game 1.
Over 5.5 goals -110
The Western Conference series doesn’t start till Friday but that doesn’t mean we can’t start planning out our bets for Game 1 now. Dallas and Vegas have both been extremely up and down in the net this postseason and there is every chance that we once again see those cracks lead to scoring outbreaks in Game 1. Jake Oettinger stepped up with a great Game 7 7 performance against Seattle but has just a .903 save percentage and ranks 23rd among goaltenders in goals saved above expected.
On the other side, Vegas’ rotating goalie situation seems likely to combust at any point with Adin Hill, who has been a backup for most of his career, now manning the net. Five of Dallas’ seven games against Seattle saw seven or more goals scored while Vegas scored four or more goals in each win against Edmonton. The 5.5 total on tap Friday could be underrating the offenses and looks worth going over in Game 1.
Hintz comes into Round 3 of the playoffs averaging 1.46 points per game and leads all non-eliminated playoff scorers in both goals and points. Despite that, he’s been overshadowed a bit in terms of attention by the center on the other side of this series, Jack Eichel — who trails Hintz by five points. Hintz’s path to a potential MVP is also slightly easier than any of the forwards in the Eastern Conference series as his goaltender, Jake Oettinger, has been up and down thus far in the playoffs and has not been nearly as dominant as Bobrovsky or Andersen.
If Dallas gets through Vegas and Hintz continues to lead the league in playoff scoring, there is a great chance he’ll move into one of the top two favorite positions for this award — and potentially offer a great hedging opportunity as well if there’s a clear favorite on the other side. Hintz’s odds are still inflated at the moment just due to the Stars being underdogs against the Golden Knights but if they get out fast in this series, you’ll likely see them get shorter. Now is a great time to jump on Hintz, especially if you like the Stars to get past the Golden Knights.