vic,
I had to against you with the NYI, My local had LA Kings + 1 -110. He often does this & modifies standard vegas odds...seems like exceptional value if you like the dog...I usually bet against his 'favorite juicing' & do quite well
FYI he also has Atlanta + 1 -110 this afternoon....
If you can recall Saturday nites action he had
Toronto -1 -110
Ottawa -1 -130
Tbay -1 -130
St Louis -1.5 -130
Vancouver -1 -130
I Took all the dogs & went 3-1-1....Now he deals a 20 cent line so in the cases where the favorite was -130 I got +110 back on the dog.
So Pitt, Anaheim, Mtl, & FLa were all +110.
vic, or anyone else if you were presented with this unique betting opportunity how would you handle it?
I had to against you with the NYI, My local had LA Kings + 1 -110. He often does this & modifies standard vegas odds...seems like exceptional value if you like the dog...I usually bet against his 'favorite juicing' & do quite well
If you can recall Saturday nites action he had
Toronto -1 -110
Ottawa -1 -130
Tbay -1 -130
St Louis -1.5 -130
Vancouver -1 -130
I Took all the dogs & went 3-1-1....Now he deals a 20 cent line so in the cases where the favorite was -130 I got +110 back on the dog.
So Pitt, Anaheim, Mtl, & FLa were all +110.
vic, or anyone else if you were presented with this unique betting opportunity how would you handle it?
Savant,
I’ve heard so many different ratios for what constitutes good value when converting a ½ puck to a money line.
The old book from over ten years ago used to be that ½ goal generally equaled .50
Today I believe that .40 seems to be the consensus. But as you’re well aware no two situations are the same and every game should be handicapped on it’s own merit.
To keep this short.… in the case of L.A. +1/-110, the opening line when I took the other side, (NYI) would have been L.A. +.5/+125. Little doubt where the value was there with thirty five cents buying you another ½ goal. You have to feel that in your mind you believe the game is going to be close. If your correct, the only real fear you should be concerned with is a empty net goal. Any other scenario, (outside of a lopsided win by the Islanders), gives you no worse than a push. When you consider the high amount of regulations ending in a deadlock you have to seriously consider getting a full goal.
However as the line slowly moved to favor of the Islanders at -.5/-165, by the time the game went off , you could be getting a ½ goal and +145. Now your buying a half goal for 55 cents. Not good value to me.
This being said I believe it’s still a individual thought process on how you believe a game will be played out. As the year comes into it’s stretch drive games will get tighter and tighter and the only thing you should be sweating is the empty net goals. I guess in answer to your question I would certainly look at the tie and one goal records of the teams involved. Especially as the year goes on. I think come crunch time that getting a full goal as opposed to a half will be more like a fifty cent value or more.
Whew1 sorry if I rambled…I was thinking about this as I was writing it and kind of playing a personal game of point/counter point.
V V
I’ve heard so many different ratios for what constitutes good value when converting a ½ puck to a money line.
The old book from over ten years ago used to be that ½ goal generally equaled .50
Today I believe that .40 seems to be the consensus. But as you’re well aware no two situations are the same and every game should be handicapped on it’s own merit.
To keep this short.… in the case of L.A. +1/-110, the opening line when I took the other side, (NYI) would have been L.A. +.5/+125. Little doubt where the value was there with thirty five cents buying you another ½ goal. You have to feel that in your mind you believe the game is going to be close. If your correct, the only real fear you should be concerned with is a empty net goal. Any other scenario, (outside of a lopsided win by the Islanders), gives you no worse than a push. When you consider the high amount of regulations ending in a deadlock you have to seriously consider getting a full goal.
However as the line slowly moved to favor of the Islanders at -.5/-165, by the time the game went off , you could be getting a ½ goal and +145. Now your buying a half goal for 55 cents. Not good value to me.
This being said I believe it’s still a individual thought process on how you believe a game will be played out. As the year comes into it’s stretch drive games will get tighter and tighter and the only thing you should be sweating is the empty net goals. I guess in answer to your question I would certainly look at the tie and one goal records of the teams involved. Especially as the year goes on. I think come crunch time that getting a full goal as opposed to a half will be more like a fifty cent value or more.
Whew1 sorry if I rambled…I was thinking about this as I was writing it and kind of playing a personal game of point/counter point.
V V
