NFLX Week #1 (Aug 14)

[olddog]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Billick is a strong ps coach.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ppeter - the last three years Baltimore is 4-7 ATS in pre-season, so I'm not sure if Billick still places that much emphasis on pre-season games althogh his overall pre-season record is 11-7-1.

I did read that rookie Schaub will replace Vick after one series and play into the 4th Q.

 

[bblight]

Wasn't Schaub a HeismAn Trophy candidate?

 

[ppeter]

bblight

I am stuck with Balt -3.5 since that is what the line was at when I made the bet. The line has been steadily coming down since then. I hope I don't get hooked

Thanks for the info Dog. I am not bullish on Schaub as I thought he was WAAYYY overrated at Virginia. In the wild early PS, I like Kordell Stewart and Josh Harris' mobility and improv ability over Schaub traditional dropback role.

 

[ppeter]

adding Jets +2.5 3 units

NO is really banged up at the qb spot, Jets backup qb Bollinger is fighting for his career and Dungy will be doing everything in his power to showcase him.

 

[ppeter]

Adding 2 units Jets +125 ML

Adding 2 units Jets + 1 1st half
Confirmed that Aaron Brooks will not play, top backup Bouman is also injured. I will take Pennington and Bollinger vs. a hurting Bouman and O'Sullivan.

Adding 4 units Phil +1.5 1st half
Brady will only get one series before giving way to Rohan Davey for about the rest of the game. Philly gets McNabb for a qtr and seasoned vet Jeff Blake for the 2nd qtr.

Adding 2 units Phil/NE ov 16 1st half
I know the weather sucks up there, but this is sort of a hedge play because all Phil has to do is score one measly TD in the first half with their superior qb rotation to ensure at least a split of the side and total plays.

 

[ppeter]

BUYING BACK SD + 2 for 5 units

I see that Manning is only going to get one series now while Brees may play the entire first half. Given the Colts superior depth, they may still win this despite the lousier qb rotation, but I am going to kill this play and make it a "hunch" only. Sorry guys.

 

[olddog]

Be careful with the Phila bet.

In the past 3 preseasons NE has been 3-1 Under the total each year. Last year, this (pretty much the) same NE defense held the NYG to 6 pts, Wash to 13 pts, and Phila to 12 pts at Phila, before surrendering 23 pts to Chico in the last preseason game when they rested their starters. I don't remember Phila's QB rotation in last yr's preseason game. (NE also held Phila to 10 pts during the 2nd week of the regular season).

NE scored at least 20 pts in each pre-season game last yr and beat every opponent by at least 7 pts incl a 24-12 win at Phila.

Rohan Davey has been in the NE system for 2+ years and gets lots of preseason playing time. Davey played a big role in the Pats going 4-0 in the 2003 preseason.

 

[ppeter]

Thanks Olddog, but unfortunately I was in Vegas at the Bash and did not read your post in time. I sure went down in flames with the Eaglets.

Adding

Denv -2.5 3 units
Seattle +3 3 units

both system plays

 

[ppeter]

I need to sweep those two plays to finish in the black for this week....

 

[ppeter]

Adding

Seattle/GB over 7.5 1st qtr +145 (Royal) 1 unit