NFLX Week #1 (Aug 14)

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Rx Wizard
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I know it is early, but I always believe in getting the best line (and the line usually moves in my favor). I reverse off plays a lot and eat the juice if I am wrong about a line movement. Anyway, here are two plays I made already for week #1 of the preseason. I grade my plays from 2-10 units with an average play in the preseason 3 units.

Tenn -3 6 units
I always remember the Titans in the NFLX as Billy "Bookie Killer" Volek is probably the king of the preseason. (THE PRESEASON CASH MACHINE, IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN). Plus Jeff Fisher is so anal about winning. Tennessee will be anxious to try out Chris Brown and their new WR's. Cleveland annually shows NOTHING under Butchy Davis in the preseason.

Chi +4 4 units
Think Lovie Smith is anxious to face his former team? Brand new head coaches usually do well in their first preseason game as the Coach wants to remember for the rest of his life that his first nfl "game" was a winner. The team usually puts in a better effort to bag that win for the new regime. Chi should be giving Grossman plenty of time on the field to work out the kinks in the new O; much more time than Bulger will get for St.L. The rams have always kept things very vanilla in the preseason under Martz. Just take a look at their most recent offensive outputs in the preseason. The Rams are expected to be a SB contender this year and that usually spells "going through the motions and try not to get injured" in the preseason. The only thing that keeps this from being a top play is the fact it is in the Dome. I would have much rather laid pk in Chi's new stadium.
 

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Ariz +4 3 units
Ariz/Minn ov 37 2 units

Denny Green will be pumped to get it on for this one--bottom feeders like Ariz have been preseason spread winners over time. Ariz won a high scoring shootout in the Dome last year, and I expect more of the same.
 

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Wash/Denv un 34 3 units
Denv +2.5 (WWTS) 2 units

Joe Gibbs has made it clear this is a meaningless game and he will play call appropriately. Shannahan and Denver in general "care" about the pre-season as Denv is 20-3 ATS in week 1 since 1980 (per Marc Lawrence). Denv and Wash both have strong "under" trends in week #1 of the preseason.
 

Rx Wizard
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Adding Jax +3 4 units (WWTS--but off the board in some places due to Dolphin injury situation)

Write up to follow
 

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Just wondering if you think the Vikings will be extra motivated for this game to avenge getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Cards last season??

I like the Denver selection. they also started camp a few days before Wash.
 

Rx Wizard
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No. Preseason handicapping requires evaluating 6 major factors: 1)gameplan (e.g. win at any cost? rest starters? take a long look at backups and rest starters? keep simple gameplan because will face same team again in reg. season?), 2) coaching tendancies (some coaches are rabid about winning period, even if it is a "meaningless" preseason game, some don't give a shit about preseason, period--see Mike Tice under that catagory), 3) qb rotation, 4) amount of time for starters, 5) situation (new coach playing first game? new owner that needs to sell season tickets?), 6) technical trends and angles.
 

Is that a moonbat in my sites?
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ppete, How did you get Denver under?

I have them at 37 o more.
 

Rx Wizard
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Hi Blight

good to see you, my man. Hope the sky is not falling too bad on wallstreet...

I don't quite understand your post, but I will assume you are implying your numbers show 37 should be the total? (Note it opened at 35 and has moved down to 34).

I read Joe Gibbs gameplan as keeping it on the ground and keeping it simple with little playing time for the starters. Shanahan will be playing the starters even less, as half the starters won't even play and the other half are only going to get ONE SERIES. Still, given Shanny's record in the preseason, I think Denvers backups will put out a little better effort and they are getting the points. Otherwise, I was looking at a pass on the side.
 

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Peter- Good luck in your first week picks. I was just wondering if this Billy Volek guy has services to buy if he is so good, and if he does where do I go to get it. I am really looking to make some money this preseason so I was trying to find somebody worth my money.
 

Rx Wizard
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Thanks for the props

Billy Voleck is not a scamdicapper. He is the Titans backup qb. I call him the "bookie killer" because he has made me a ton of coin in preseason over the years. He could probably start on about 1/3 of the teams in the NFL and got a fat contract new contract with the Titans because they know Steve McNair is brittle.


Bookie Killer would be a cool name for a service, though!
 

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im laughing my ass offf this is so funny. im on the titans too. im also on kc,jets,cardinals too. its a 4 team parlay i hope to hit my 1st preseason ticket.ever.i have to bet something since the wnba shut down for the olympics. damn,i was on a major roll and winning huge bucks due to oddsmakers being clueless about what the lines should have been.
 

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"I read Joe Gibbs gameplan as keeping it on the ground and keeping it simple with little playing time for the starters. Shanahan will be playing the starters even less, as half the starters won't even play and the other half are only going to get ONE SERIES."

Would you pls tell me what site provided this info - I've been looking for hours and haven't found anything on QB rotation or how long starters will play - I need this important info.

Thanks in advance,
OldDog
 

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Latest from The Washington Post

Sports > NFL > Index > Redskins
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Getting Down to Business
Gibbs Back on Sideline Tonight In Redskins' Preseason Opener

By Jason La Canfora
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, August 9, 2004; Page D01

Canton, Ohio, was supposed to be the end of the line for Joe Gibbs. On this very weekend eight years ago, Gibbs was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, capping a brilliant coaching career with the Washington Redskins that included three Super Bowl titles. He had retired after the 1992 season and was content with that decision, his desire to win quenched by his rapidly rising NASCAR racing team. So he came to Canton with friends and family for one final celebration of his accomplishments, never dreaming he would stalk the sidelines again.

Gibbs returned to Canton on Saturday afternoon, leading a very different group of Redskins to town for their preseason opener, and tonight he will coach his first game in 12 years when Washington faces Denver in the Hall of Fame game before a nationally televised audience. While the results of this preseason game will be largely irrelevant, the jitters are back for a coaching staff that includes many of the same men who assisted Gibbs in his first stint with the Redskins. After so many years away, it is Game Day for Gibbs once again in a town that provided him with one of the fondest memories of his professional career.

_____5 Things to Watch_____

Coach Joe Gibbs said he will be nervous on the sidelines, but will be focused and fiery as well, in his first game back.

The quarterback battle between Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey will heat up; Brunell will start.

Gregg Williams's all-out attacking defense will get going, with linebacker LaVar Arrington likely to line up all over the field.

Running back Clinton Portis nursing a sore groin, will play against his former team in his first start for Washington.

Gibbs is adamant about the importance of special teams and will not tolerate mistakes from units that have received abundant attention in practice.

"I'll tell you what was really enjoyable at [the induction] for me," Gibbs said, "was a lot our family and friends -- we had a lot of people come -- and as a matter of fact there were a lot of Redskins fans there, and it was fun. The party, they really do that first class, and I really had an enjoyable time, and I kind of thought -- and rightly so -- that that was it for me, and I enjoyed that part of it because it was probably the closing of a door there on my coaching career. And so I think about all those emotions, but mostly what I remember is our family had a great party that night, and everybody was out there and, of course, I went in with Dan Dierdorf and Charlie Joiner, and those are two guys I coached."

Gibbs would be the first to admit he did not return to Washington to relive the past and bask in sentimental moments; he came back to win and gauge whether he and his staff can duplicate their success in an era in which both the league and its players are quite different. The first real measure will come tonight, and Gibbs spent the last two days of practice ensuring there will be no embarrassing miscues, going over minutiae -- such as how the team will stretch during warmups, halftime procedures and rehearsing substitutions. There is a legacy to uphold and massive expectations to meet, and although the bulk of this game will be played by journeymen with little likelihood of opening the regular season with the team, Gibbs will be evaluating every player on every play.

The opponent is a perennial playoff threat with dynamic talent at key positions and a staff, led by Coach Mike Shanahan, considered among the most prepared in the game.

"We're just going to go out there and play the best we can," Gibbs said. "I think we're playing a veteran group and coaching staff -- one of the best -- and they're very creative, so I think it's probably good that we're playing against somebody who is a little bit the opposite of what we are, with a new staff and new players trying to get everybody together. That's pretty much a proven group over there, so it'll be interesting to us, and I'm sure it'll be a real challenge."

The battle between quarterbacks Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey for the starting job also will intensify. Brunell, a veteran of 11 NFL seasons and a former Pro Bowl player, will start the game, but Gibbs has not divulged how long Brunell will stay in the game with the first team. Ramsey, the starter last season, likely will follow him. Ramsey is expected to start the second of five preseason games, Saturday night at FedEx Field. Gibbs is looking for as smooth a performance as possible, with an emphasis on limiting penalties and turnovers.

"We'd like to win the football game," Brunell said. "But there are other things we're shooting for as well. We want to move the ball and play well, of course, and just be effective and get the season off in the right way."

Running back Clinton Portis, who has been bothered by a groin injury the past few days, likely will start against his former team; Portis was acquired from Denver in the offseason in exchange for stalwart cornerback Champ Bailey, who no doubt will look to disrupt the offense of his former team regardless of who is behind center or in the backfield. "He's happy in Denver, I can tell you that," said cornerback Fred Smoot, Bailey's former understudy who speaks with him three times a week.

But the evening will be most special for Gibbs. He will be the center of attention on the field and one of the most watched figures over this entire NFL season. All of the old feelings are back again.

"I know I'm going to be more nervous," Gibbs said. "It's like I'm going back and starting all over again, and I'd hate to look bad, and I think the players feel that way, too."
 

Rx Wizard
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Dog, believe it our not, Jim Fiest's website is an incredible source of info for the PS. I won't post the address here due to Rx regulations, but do a google and you will eventually find it.
 

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Now I remember - you are exactly right - Feist site is good for preseason info.....but it is not always correct, so be careful to correlate with newspaper articles if possible.

Thanks ppeter
 

RX Senior
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the under is 7-1 the last 2 years in broncos pre season games. . it is also 4-1 for under in non confrence wash nflx games. . and 6-0 non confrence denver nflx games.

that is 3 fairly strong stats for under. tough call though, as the game is a monday nighter in canton ohio on national television, not exactly a typical pre season game. GL
 

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Balt -3.5 3 units
Vick will only get 1 series, Atl 2nd stringer Detmer is out. Billick is a strong ps coach.

NYG -2.5 4 units
Much stronger qb rotation for NY, Coughlin is a known ps winning coach.

Oak -1 5 units
This line will be moving on up. Stonger qb rotation for Oak as all backups have significantly more experience than any of SF's starters. SF has been beset by the injury bug more than most teams. Regional rivalry.

Indy -1.5 7 unit POW.
SD is short on qbs with Flutie hurt and Rivers holding out. At is stands, rookie Cleo Lemon might have to play 3 qts. Admittedly, Indys backup qbs are no great shakes, (Sauter, Sorgi, Hamilton) but they have more experience than Lemon. Strong ps coaching trends in favor of Indy here.
 

Is that a moonbat in my sites?
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ppete, it's none of my business, but is there a reason you don't bet down to 3 for games like the Baltimore -3.5?

No intent, just asking a 'capper who I respect.
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> At is stands, rookie Cleo Lemon might have to play 3 qts. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ppeter - FYI - SD picked up Joe Germaine, lately a BU in the AFL. Germaine has NFL experience --- he played three games for St. Louis in 1999 and completed nine of 16 passes for 136 yards. Germaine bounced around the NFL after that, getting looks with Kansas City and Cincinnati. He was out of the league two years and was the backup quarterback with the Arizona Rattlers of the Arena Football League in 2004."

As for Lemon - Lemon went to camp with the Baltimore Ravens in 2002 and spent all of last season on the Chargers' practice squad. The 6-foot-2, 226-pounder out of Arkansas State played in three preseason games for the Chargers last season, completing 17 of 29 passes for 229 yards. He threw one interception and had a touchdown pass against Arizona.

"Schottenheimer didn't want to speculate on how much Lemon and Germaine will play Saturday in relief of Drew Brees in the preseason opener against Indianapolis, but both should play."

"Cleo Lemon has made a lot of progress the last two years," Schottenheimer said. "And he has really improved from a year ago.

"He has a quick release, a good arm, he's mobile and he's a fine athlete.

"With Flutie out, Germaine has been a big help. We brought him in because he knows our system."

After Manning plays a series of two(?), the BU Indy QBs aren't much better/more experienced than the chargers, but Indy's defense is better than the Chargers.
 

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