NFL Week 13

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

uscmd said:
SDS

I like all 4 of your sides.

Over the last 5 weeks the average number of dogs covering has been 8-9.

Looking at the games, I (like you) see mostly favorites covering. Thur was 3-0 fav's. 13 games left, either lots of dogs come through or its a giant statistical aberration.

Thanks Doc. I always appreciate you stopping by and like it even more when we are sharing similar thoughts.

As far as the whole fav vs dog thing, I guess that's just the way the cookie crumbled this week in regard to the picks. I pick each one isolated from the other and I try to avoid entering with preconceived notions about it being a "dog week" or vice versa. But yes, now that I am exiting the mico-analysis phase of my due diligence and able to resurface to a more maco-analysis, I agree 100% with you ~ that this is certainly shaping up for looks to be a "week of favorites". Let's hope we're both spot on with our perspectives.

BOL with all your action in Week 13 Doc!!

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

Sunday Week 13

3* IND -4.5 -110
3* TB -4 -100
2* MIN -3.5 +105
1* NYG -3.5 -110
1* SF OV 43.5 -110

Season Record: 76~58......+30.55 units

More to come.....

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

sds23 said:
Sunday Week 13

3* IND -4.5 -110
3* TB -4 -100
2* MIN -3.5 +105
1* NYG -3.5 -110
1* SF OV 43.5 -110

Season Record: 76~58......+30.55 units

More to come.....

Here's an interesting trend that I read about in SI:

Since 1940, when a democrat has won the presidency, the Redskins have only had one single winning post-Election Day record (in 1976). Bye-bye playoff hopes?

(This does not necessarily mean that they are any more likely to lose tomorrow, but it does likely mean that they will have a losing record going forward from week 13 through week 17).

ajreeb · Nov 29, 2008

sds23 said:
Yes, let it ride until you are down to just 1 play pending. I rarely play parlays but when I do I always try to enter any parlay with the frame of mind that I will be hedging in some way. There’s nothing worse than seeing the last leg fall off on the last game on Sunday or on MNF. I’ve always thought that making a side bet for about half the size of what I could possibly win on the parlay was smart. This way you are assured with a decent sized profit in the event you find yourself staring at the last leg of a sizeable parlay win.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
I always preferred keeping the number of teams in a parlay down to about 3 teams, maybe 4. Let’s say I really like 5 or 6 plays on a given week. I always felt it was better to take the best 3 plays and play a 3-team parlay for twice as much as one might casually play a 5-team parlay.<o></o>
<o></o>
The other advantage of smaller parlays is another great hedge strategy, which is to wager on the most solid game inside your 3-team parlay. While this may not work every single week, one would assume that the designated best play inside of the parlay would hit at least 2 out of 3 weeks, and if wagered upon for twice the amount wagered on the parlay, would assure you a winning day on the days it hits, the freedom to be playing with house money going forward and hopefully the ability to stay within an extremely comfortable betting level.

Nice looking parlays AJ. BOL with all of them my friend!

Ahh, both went south early today. Oh well, thanks for the advice though. I like your idea of doubling up on the strongest play and hoping to end up with a free-roll on the remaining, then hedging the last if still in play. May try that Sunday.

Good looking card tomorrow, I'm with you on Indy and NYG. I'm also looking at NYJ-8. If Farve continues to play as well as he has, I think the Denver secondary is in for a long day. Plus the whole west-to-east travel deal...

Thanks again, and good luck with all your plays, my friend.

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

ajreeb said:
Ahh, both went south early today. Oh well, thanks for the advice though. I like your idea of doubling up on the strongest play and hoping to end up with a free-roll on the remaining, then hedging the last if still in play. May try that Sunday.

Well said! That was the perfect way to say that without so many words. I am too damn wordy!!

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

ajreeb said:
Good looking card tomorrow, I'm with you on Indy and NYG. I'm also looking at NYJ-8. If Farve continues to play as well as he has, I think the Denver secondary is in for a long day. Plus the whole west-to-east travel deal...

Thanks again, and good luck with all your plays, my friend.

Thanks AJ. Glad to hear you are already on some of the same. I am still debating the Jets. I agree with your analysis but have a funny feeling about that game ATS for some reason.

I am also having a hard time with the GB / CAR game. I will watch the latest weather updates locally as game time approaches. It is supposed to be windy here. I do NOT like GB's chances versus a stronger, more physical line (both on defense and offense) on a day that may come down to field position and running. Everybody and their brother is on GB it seems and I am really leaning CAR right now if the wind proves to be blowing at 20-mph or more.

Also.....CAR is a False Dog System Play this weekend (team with better points getting points ATS). So is ATL and PIT.

Other leans: SF, BAL, ATL, NE, HOU

BOL to you my friend !!

I_Need_Money · Nov 29, 2008

Really like your SF/Buff Over play man.
I took it big on Monday at 42.....and then immediately got mad at myself when I realized I should have waited to see what the weather would be.

hno:

I'm guessing since you're on it the forecast isn't too bad huh?

Good luck man.

ajreeb · Nov 29, 2008

sds23 said:
Thanks AJ. Glad to hear you are already on some of the same. I am still debating the Jets. I agree with your analysis but have a funny feeling about that game ATS for some reason.

I am also having a hard time with the GB / CAR game. I will watch the latest weather updates locally as game time approaches. It is supposed to be windy here. I do NOT like GB's chances versus a stronger, more physical line (both on defense and offense) on a day that may come down to field position and running. Everybody and their brother is on GB it seems and I am really leaning CAR right now if the wind proves to be blowing at 20-mph or more.

Also.....CAR is a False Dog System Play this weekend (team with better points getting points ATS). So is ATL and PIT.

Other leans: SF, BAL, ATL, NE, HOU

BOL to you my friend !!

I agree with you on CAR if it comes down to a rushing battle, but if the wind subsides and it's a high scoring game I'd give the edge to your Pack. Delhomme has be average at best this year and prone to throw a pick or 3. As far as the public goes, it isn't too bad. Right now sportsinsights.com is only favoring GB 63%.

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

I_Need_Money said:
Really like your SF/Buff Over play man.
I took it big on Monday at 42.....and then immediately got mad at myself when I realized I should have waited to see what the weather would be. hno:

I'm guessing since you're on it the forecast isn't too bad huh?

Good luck man.

I really like this play too INM. I wanted to play it as a 2*, and still may if the weather holds as forecasted. The forecast appears to "mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of snow" but the key is the winds, which will only be "5 to 10-m.p.h." and a "game time temp of 40 degrees ."

Here's a link to a decent weather site for the entire NFL each week: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/wx/weather.htm

I still prefer to get a local forecast when I really, really need to know, but that website gives you a nice quick overview of the entire league on one page.

I will post some weather-related info that I posted sometime ago if I can manage to dig it up. It's getting to be that time of the year and I think people sometimes misunderstand which portions of the forecast will affect scoring the most.

BOL with all of your week 13 action INM !!

dxn0401 · Nov 29, 2008

I also like the Buffalo San Fran Over got it at 43.

Indy -5 is my favorite pick this week, thought the line should have been something like -7.5 and I think they win by at least 10.

Giants -3.5 and Pittsburgh +1 are my other plays.

Upset of the week if you want to really call it that is Buffalo +3

BOL to all!

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

ajreeb said:
I agree with you on CAR if it comes down to a rushing battle, but if the wind subsides and it's a high scoring game I'd give the edge to your Pack. Delhomme has be average at best this year and prone to throw a pick or 3. As far as the public goes, it isn't too bad. Right now sportsinsights.com is only favoring GB 63%.

Totally agreed buddy. GB is good for about 27 or 28 points if the wind is manageable tomorrow. In which case the best bet might be the OVER here. But if this forecast that I saw yesterday holds, I think it will be lower scoring, field position type of game. I will keep an eye on the weather and psot some info later.

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

dxn0401 said:
I also like the Buffalo San Fran Over got it at 43.

Indy -5 is my favorite pick this week, thought the line should have been something like -7.5 and I think they win by at least 10.

Giants -3.5 and Pittsburgh +1 are my other plays.

Upset of the week if you want to really call it that is Buffalo +3

BOL to all!

Solid plays dxn. BOL with all of your action!

dxn0401 · Nov 29, 2008

sds23 said:
Solid plays dxn. BOL with all of your action!

Thanks!

I'm still torn on the GB game and being from Milwaukee and a life time Packer fan it's hard to put personal feeling away from decision making.

Having seen every Packer game it just will depend on which teams show up to play tomorrow. The line at three tells me they aren't sure either and are just giving the edge to the home team. I don't really see this being a close game. Either GB shows up at home with their backs against the wall and plays like they did vs Chicago and win by 13+ or they play like last monday and lose by 10. Seems like its GB's game to win or lose but I'm staying away from this one.

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

dxn0401 said:
Thanks!

I'm still torn on the GB game and being from Milwaukee and a life time Packer fan it's hard to put personal feeling away from decision making.

Having seen every Packer game it just will depend on which teams show up to play tomorrow. The line at three tells me they aren't sure either and are just giving the edge to the home team. I don't really see this being a close game. Either GB shows up at home with their backs against the wall and plays like they did vs Chicago and win by 13+ or they play like last monday and lose by 10. Seems like its GB's game to win or lose but I'm staying away from this one.

That may be the best play dxn. BOL with whatever you decide and the rest of your plays.

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

sds23 said:
Here's a link to a decent weather site for the entire NFL each week: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/wx/weather.htm

I still prefer to get a local forecast when I really, really need to know, but that website gives you a nice quick overview of the entire league on one page.

I will post some weather-related info that I posted sometime ago if I can manage to dig it up. It's getting to be that time of the year and I think people sometimes misunderstand which portions of the forecast will affect scoring the most.

Here's something I posted last season in another thread that may be helpful to some people:

<TABLE class=tborder id=post4539112 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">

10-01-2007, 06:44 PM </TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right> #7 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 0px solid" width=175>sds23<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_4539112", true); </SCRIPT>
RX Wizard

Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 5,672

</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_4539112 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by CaptFlippy

I was always under the impression that rain caused games to stay under, In the beginning of the season I read somewhere here on the RX that rain actually causes games to be highert scoring because of the missed tackles, slipping defenders, and other items. I thought about it and it makes sense, remember cold and rain is different than 60 to 65 degree rain. I wish I had some facts or stats on this, do you? I like the under, probably won't touch it because I love the Pats this game, Good Luck!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Three things to always consider when factoring weather conditions: wind, rain/snow and coldness.

It is wind, if bad enough, that seems to affect scoring the most. A really bad side-to-side wind (as opposed to endzone-to-endzone) really affects passing and field goals (and consequently the overall score).

Rain can hurt, but there are factors and degrees when it comes to slippery footing and ball control. Really bad footing, one would think, makes it tough for everyone, but we've all heard players say that the offense has an advantage since they know where they are going and the defense needs to react.

When it comes to ball control, who's to say that turnovers don't occur in situations where the recovering team gets a short field? Kind of a crap shoot I guess if you expect bad ball control to be an issue. But you also need to take account of "how wet" it really is. Many QBs have said that "just a little bit" of rain can actually improve their grip. Things like this need to be qualified and never generalized.

Snow, unless it is really slushy and messy has the least affect IMO. Snow usually tends to be powdery...and has little affect.

The worst conditions, are a mix of cold / rain or cold / slushy snow. Cold itself is negotiable, but cold and wet is pretty rough.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

I_Need_Money said:
Really like your SF/Buff Over play man.
I took it big on Monday at 42.....and then immediately got mad at myself when I realized I should have waited to see what the weather would be. hno:

I'm guessing since you're on it the forecast isn't too bad huh?

Good luck man.

Here's tomorrow's forecast for Buffalo:

National Weather Service Hourly Forecast for Sunday at 14201 (Buffalo)

<TABLE class=full id=hourlyTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=sectionTitle><TD colSpan=8>Wind (mph):</TD></TR><TR><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

5 mph SSE
(150°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

6 mph SE
(130°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

6 mph ESE
(120°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

6 mph ESE
(120°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

9 mph ESE
(110°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

12 mph ESE
(120°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

12 mph East
(80°)
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

11 mph East
(90°)
</TD></TR><TR class=sectionTitle><TD colSpan=8>Conditions:</TD></TR><TR><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

</TD><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">

Chance of Light Rain , Chance of Light Snow </TD><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

Likely Light Rain </TD><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

Definite Light Rain </TD><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

Definite Rain , Definite Snow </TD><TD class="taC vaT" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">

Definite Snow </TD></TR><TR class=sectionTitle><TD colSpan=8>Probability of Precipitation (%):</TD></TR><TR><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">10% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">10% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">10% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">90% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">90% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">90% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">90% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">100% </TD></TR><TR class=sectionTitle><TD colSpan=8>Cloud Cover (%):</TD></TR><TR><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">30% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">45% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">59% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">79% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">99% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">99% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">100% </TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e8effc">100%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

sds23 · Nov 29, 2008

Sorry ~ the times above these weather categories might be useful.....

National Weather Service Hourly Forecast for Sunday at 14201

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database
<TABLE class=full id=typeTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=inactiveTab>Friday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Saturday</TD><TD class=activeTab>Sunday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Monday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Tuesday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Wednesday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Thursday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Friday</TD><TD class=inactiveTab>Saturday</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=full id=hourlyTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff0">1 AM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff0">4 AM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff0">7 AM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ff0">10 AM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #fff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #172c6c">1 PM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #fff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #172c6c">4 PM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #fff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #172c6c">7 PM
</TD><TD class="taC vaB" style="WIDTH: 12.5%; COLOR: #fff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #172c6c">10 PM
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=full id=hourlyTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=sectionTitle><TD colSpan=8>Wind (mph):</TD></TR><TR><TD class="taC vaB" style="COLOR: #000; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffc">