Dallas Cowboys: Taco Charlton is Defensive Rookie of the Year.
No rookie is in a better position to help his team immediately than Charlton -- and no team needs more help from a rookie than Dallas does from Charlton. The Cowboys recorded 36 sacks last season, a so-so figure made decidedly less relevant by the fact that opposing quarterbacks attempted 633 passes against them. Moreover, the team's leading "edge rusher" (a term I use generously), Benson Mayowa, garnered six whole sacks. Get excited. Charlton was an impact player at Michigan, a football powerhouse. He's a full-time player. He will also get every chance to play, and earn those Taco Bueno deals. Side note: They have the best bean burritos. Better than Taco Cabana or Taco Bell.
Detroit Lions: They win the NFC North.
Admittedly, this is a tough sell. Predicting the Lions will win a division they haven't ever won (the NFC North was formed in 2002) already feels shaky after two sentences. Yet, there are reasons to think Detroit could pull off beating out Green Bay for the top spot. Start with addition by subtraction, as the Lions signed former Packer guard T.J. Lang in free agency. General manager Bob Quinn further bolstered the offensive line by adding tackle Ricky Wagner. Each should help running back Ameer Abdullah stay on course. Abdullah merely needs to stay healthy. This team was on its way toward winning the NFC North last year until Matthew Stafford injured his middle finger. How many teams can survive their starter hurting his throwing hand in the midst of a playoff run? No major injuries and no Hail Marys might mean an end to the days of merely sneaking into the postseason.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers' production takes a dip.
Rodgers played lights-out the back half of last season. It was an epic run: 18 touchdowns and no picks over the last seven games. He averaged over 8 yards a throw, with nary an outing in which he completed less than 60 percent of his passes. That accuracy has additional meaning because he wasn't nibbling at the defense with 3-yard outs -- he was throwing downfield to anyone who would look up. So could he toss 40 touchdown passes again in 2017? Sure. But would that make Green Bay win more? Mike McCarthy knows the Packers need to run the football to close out games. Ty Montgomery has been switched to RB, while the club drafted three more backs. The Packers also play a tough schedule. So don't be surprised if Rodgers' numbers fade slightly.
Los Angeles Rams: Aaron Donald wins Defensive Player of the Year.
So you're probably thinking, This bold prediction isn't that bold. Yet, considering Donald plays defensive tackle, it really is a stretch. No interior lineman has won the top defensive honor since Y2K. Since the award became official in 1971, six defensive tackles have received the award. ("Mean" Joe Greene won twice.) However, as the NFL morphed into a 60-40 pass-run league, the impact of interior defensive linemen diminished. Fans and media look at sacks. While 10 sacks is a phenomenal number for a DT, it fails to stack up to the totals compiled by the likes of Khalil Mack (15 in 2015) and Von Miller (18.5 in 2012). That said, Donald's game has been noticed by everybody. Presumably, the Rams won't be terribly behind in as many games this year, meaning opponents will be running out the clock less and throwing more. Donald could increase his sack total (eight last year) while still blowing up plenty of run plays ... and entrenching himself firmly on everyone's radar.
No rookie is in a better position to help his team immediately than Charlton -- and no team needs more help from a rookie than Dallas does from Charlton. The Cowboys recorded 36 sacks last season, a so-so figure made decidedly less relevant by the fact that opposing quarterbacks attempted 633 passes against them. Moreover, the team's leading "edge rusher" (a term I use generously), Benson Mayowa, garnered six whole sacks. Get excited. Charlton was an impact player at Michigan, a football powerhouse. He's a full-time player. He will also get every chance to play, and earn those Taco Bueno deals. Side note: They have the best bean burritos. Better than Taco Cabana or Taco Bell.
Detroit Lions: They win the NFC North.
Admittedly, this is a tough sell. Predicting the Lions will win a division they haven't ever won (the NFC North was formed in 2002) already feels shaky after two sentences. Yet, there are reasons to think Detroit could pull off beating out Green Bay for the top spot. Start with addition by subtraction, as the Lions signed former Packer guard T.J. Lang in free agency. General manager Bob Quinn further bolstered the offensive line by adding tackle Ricky Wagner. Each should help running back Ameer Abdullah stay on course. Abdullah merely needs to stay healthy. This team was on its way toward winning the NFC North last year until Matthew Stafford injured his middle finger. How many teams can survive their starter hurting his throwing hand in the midst of a playoff run? No major injuries and no Hail Marys might mean an end to the days of merely sneaking into the postseason.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers' production takes a dip.
Rodgers played lights-out the back half of last season. It was an epic run: 18 touchdowns and no picks over the last seven games. He averaged over 8 yards a throw, with nary an outing in which he completed less than 60 percent of his passes. That accuracy has additional meaning because he wasn't nibbling at the defense with 3-yard outs -- he was throwing downfield to anyone who would look up. So could he toss 40 touchdown passes again in 2017? Sure. But would that make Green Bay win more? Mike McCarthy knows the Packers need to run the football to close out games. Ty Montgomery has been switched to RB, while the club drafted three more backs. The Packers also play a tough schedule. So don't be surprised if Rodgers' numbers fade slightly.
Los Angeles Rams: Aaron Donald wins Defensive Player of the Year.
So you're probably thinking, This bold prediction isn't that bold. Yet, considering Donald plays defensive tackle, it really is a stretch. No interior lineman has won the top defensive honor since Y2K. Since the award became official in 1971, six defensive tackles have received the award. ("Mean" Joe Greene won twice.) However, as the NFL morphed into a 60-40 pass-run league, the impact of interior defensive linemen diminished. Fans and media look at sacks. While 10 sacks is a phenomenal number for a DT, it fails to stack up to the totals compiled by the likes of Khalil Mack (15 in 2015) and Von Miller (18.5 in 2012). That said, Donald's game has been noticed by everybody. Presumably, the Rams won't be terribly behind in as many games this year, meaning opponents will be running out the clock less and throwing more. Donald could increase his sack total (eight last year) while still blowing up plenty of run plays ... and entrenching himself firmly on everyone's radar.