I've decided not to release the NFL pick 5 based on other opportunities that interest me.
Oshkosh...for now. Florida is on the table...but I just can't decide yet.
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A New NFL season is here! @)
I will have 3 Picks a week here, for the entire regular season as I have done in the past.
Just to answer a few questions before they are asked.
I'm a stats guy...I have no opinion when it comes to picking the games. I truly believe having a predetermined opinion is very dangerous for handicapping.
I have developed and refined a system ...its actually a matrix in which I use 12 key stats or indicators that predict ATS wins.Last year I added a new stat to the mix...it is always changing and adapting.
The beauty of the system is that it is dynamic and adjusts to each season...and to what works best. It is very flexible and it is often contrary to the standard public opinion at the time.
The best picks often seem to worry us the most...I've learned to just trust the system. In general, injuries do not worry me too much.
Another unique aspect of the system is that I have attempted to quantify emotional factors that lead to ATS wins. People say that you can't do that...I say you can.
Professional football in particular is a game determined by emotion, in my opinion. At least as far as consistently beating the spread is concerned.
I have a reputation as a pretty straight forward kind of guy with all this.
I don't hype, I don't worry about bad beats and I could care less what anyone else thinks about a game. I only look at MY numbers.
It's hard to explain...but after a few years of doing this...I actually see the games in numbers...it's hard to explain but anyway.
I tend to avoid the BIG games...and the National televised games. There seems to be much more value in the games under the radar for me. I tend to hate Monday night games in particular...I think the extra emotion on both teams screws up my indicators...but who knows?
I'm not a line chaser either...I document my picks at Wagerline and use their lines....sometimes I get a bad line...sometimes it's a little better. It all evens out in the end. I've never felt a need to hedge the lines and quite frankly I hardly pay much attention to them.
My other pet peeve is the super duper unit guys. I flat bet everything...no gimmicks. What you see is what you get.
Lastly...I like to put out the picks on Fridays, in the past. I'm usually not in a hurry...that seems to work best for me and it has not effected my ATS record in any way that I can see.
I'll have the picks for week # 1 later in the week. I haven't ruled out the Thursday Opening Night game yet...but I usually don't pick that kind of game.
Good luck to us this year! :toast:
</td></tr></tr></tbody></table>A New NFL season is here! @)
I will have 3 Picks a week here, for the entire regular season as I have done in the past.
Just to answer a few questions before they are asked.
I'm a stats guy...I have no opinion when it comes to picking the games. I truly believe having a predetermined opinion is very dangerous for handicapping.
I have developed and refined a system ...its actually a matrix in which I use 12 key stats or indicators that predict ATS wins.Last year I added a new stat to the mix...it is always changing and adapting.
The beauty of the system is that it is dynamic and adjusts to each season...and to what works best. It is very flexible and it is often contrary to the standard public opinion at the time.
The best picks often seem to worry us the most...I've learned to just trust the system. In general, injuries do not worry me too much.
Another unique aspect of the system is that I have attempted to quantify emotional factors that lead to ATS wins. People say that you can't do that...I say you can.
Professional football in particular is a game determined by emotion, in my opinion. At least as far as consistently beating the spread is concerned.
I have a reputation as a pretty straight forward kind of guy with all this.
I don't hype, I don't worry about bad beats and I could care less what anyone else thinks about a game. I only look at MY numbers.
It's hard to explain...but after a few years of doing this...I actually see the games in numbers...it's hard to explain but anyway.
I tend to avoid the BIG games...and the National televised games. There seems to be much more value in the games under the radar for me. I tend to hate Monday night games in particular...I think the extra emotion on both teams screws up my indicators...but who knows?
I'm not a line chaser either...I document my picks at Wagerline and use their lines....sometimes I get a bad line...sometimes it's a little better. It all evens out in the end. I've never felt a need to hedge the lines and quite frankly I hardly pay much attention to them.
My other pet peeve is the super duper unit guys. I flat bet everything...no gimmicks. What you see is what you get.
Lastly...I like to put out the picks on Fridays, in the past. I'm usually not in a hurry...that seems to work best for me and it has not effected my ATS record in any way that I can see.
I'll have the picks for week # 1 later in the week. I haven't ruled out the Thursday Opening Night game yet...but I usually don't pick that kind of game.
Good luck to us this year! :toast:
Good luck this season. I'm firmly conviced that over time the only way top win consistently is to remove all of the emotion out of gambling (which should be diffeentiated from failing to analyze emotional factors between two teams in a game) and make the process 100% mechanical. You seem to do that as well as anyone.
Along those lines, I do have one question if you care to answer. I also try and stay away from Thursday night, Monday night, and other special games. However, if the system is purely sta
tically based, why would the system avoid those games?
Thanks.
Along those lines, I do have one question if you care to answer. I also try and stay away from Thursday night, Monday night, and other special games. However, if the system is purely sta
tically based, why would the system avoid those games?Thanks.
Good luck this season. I'm firmly conviced that over time the only way top win consistently is to remove all of the emotion out of gambling (which should be diffeentiated from failing to analyze emotional factors between two teams in a game) and make the process 100% mechanical. You seem to do that as well as anyone.
Along those lines, I do have one question if you care to answer. I also try and stay away from Thursday night, Monday night, and other special games. However, if the system is purely sta
Thanks.
I believe he alluded to the reasons in his post. There may be so much emotions in the players during those games that the numbers/stats tend to matter less. Perhaps the Lions don't care they have the worst offense and turnover margin in the league and go out and kill the Patriots with the nation watching Monday night.
Also, there tends to be less value on the national games because Vegas knows action will be heavy and you know they are gonna put out a high quality tight line - especially MNF because it's a prime avenue for people down on the weekend to chase and get unstuck.
Fair enough, DS, but I wonder if there is more value sometimes on an exclusive national Tv game because those games bring out all sorts of gamblers and they might push the lines towards a public favorite and away from the team with a statistical advantage vs. the spread.
But this isn't worth taking up too much space in MJ's thread. Whatever MJ's system's bases, I'm not going to argue with them.
But this isn't worth taking up too much space in MJ's thread. Whatever MJ's system's bases, I'm not going to argue with them.
Good luck this season. I'm firmly conviced that over time the only way top win consistently is to remove all of the emotion out of gambling (which should be diffeentiated from failing to analyze emotional factors between two teams in a game) and make the process 100% mechanical. You seem to do that as well as anyone.
Along those lines, I do have one question if you care to answer. I also try and stay away from Thursday night, Monday night, and other special games. However, if the system is purely sta
Thanks.
The system doesn't avoid the National games or Monday night games.
I have learned to avoid them from observation...other than possibly a starting QB injury or very special situation...that is the only manual over ride I will do.
Mj
win or lose, your efforts vare appreciated.
I, too, believe in numbers. No such thing as
good luck, or how do you feel about.... Or
who do you like between a and b. Emotions
or feelings have no part in gambling--this
mindset brings profits to the books. Numbers,
stats, etc--that's the way to go.
Best wishes, mj
peace
win or lose, your efforts vare appreciated.
I, too, believe in numbers. No such thing as
good luck, or how do you feel about.... Or
who do you like between a and b. Emotions
or feelings have no part in gambling--this
mindset brings profits to the books. Numbers,
stats, etc--that's the way to go.
Best wishes, mj
peace
Here we go. Good luck!
I recommend flat betting all of these for 1 unit...that's how I do it. No pick is any better than any other pick.
Determine what your unit size is for your size of bankroll.
For record keeping purposes only, I use $500 per wager.
I use Wagerline to document the picks. You may find a better or worse line at your book.
Wagerline usually gives a pretty fair line that is available at any good book, and that is what I will use.
Thanks,
MJ
Sunday, September 13
<table class="thepicks"> <tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Philadelphia </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Under 43.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Denver </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Cincinnati -4</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Dallas </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Under 39</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end leftcol --> <!-- rightcol -->
I recommend flat betting all of these for 1 unit...that's how I do it. No pick is any better than any other pick.
Determine what your unit size is for your size of bankroll.
For record keeping purposes only, I use $500 per wager.
I use Wagerline to document the picks. You may find a better or worse line at your book.
Wagerline usually gives a pretty fair line that is available at any good book, and that is what I will use.
Thanks,
MJ
Sunday, September 13
<table class="thepicks"> <tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Philadelphia </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Under 43.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carolina </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Denver </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Cincinnati -4</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Cincinnati </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Dallas </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Under 39</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end leftcol --> <!-- rightcol -->
