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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New hands-off NFL makes for tough totals betting in Week 1
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Led by a Denver Broncos team that posted an NFL-record 606 total points, the 2013 season featured more scoring in professional football than any that had come before it.

No-huddle, up-tempo attacks featuring a pass-first mentality coupled with the abandonment of the “workhorse running back” have played an integral role in the rise of scoring averages over the last 10 years.

The 256 regular season games played during the 2004 campaign resulted in an average of 42.96 points per contest. In 2013, that number skyrocketed to 46.81 points per game, good for an increase of 8.96 percent.

For their part, bookmakers have been quick to stay on top of the situation. Despite a 2.85 percent increase in scoring from 2012 to 2013, over bets went just 130-122-4 last year. When you factor in the juice, there’s no profit to be made by simply backing the Over or the Under during the course of a five-month season.

But what if we shrink our target size down from five months to just the first week of the regular season?

Week 1 of the 2004 season featured an average Over/Under of 42.12 with a scoring average of 38.81 points, which resulted in Under bets going 9-7. Contrast that with the 2013 campaign, where the average total for Week 1 was 45.3 and the scoring average was 46.4, which resulted in Over bets going 9-7. That’s an increase of just 7.54 percent in the Week 1 totals market, but a staggering leap of 19.55 percent in scoring.

Viewing the results of Week 1 over the last 10 years in the aggregate, Overs have gone just 72-86-2 (.455). But the per-year increase in average totals for Week 1 has failed to pace the increase Week 1 scoring.

Over the last five years, Overs have gone 42-36-2 (.538) during the first week of the NFL regular season. That number skyrockets again when you look solely at the last three seasons, where Week 1 Overs have produced a record of 29-18-1 (.617). If you had blindly laid $110 to win $100 on every Over played during Week 1 from 2011-2013, you would currently be up $920 entering the 2014 season.

This data certainly doesn’t guarantee Week 1 success for the upcoming season, as bookmakers have once again bumped the average of their Week 1 totals, this time from 45.3 in 2013 to 45.8 this year. But the big question is whether or not that will be enough, especially when you consider the fact that NFL referees are expected to throw more flags for illegal contact thanks to a push from the league office.

“As the league changes the rules and the quarterbacks and receivers continue to be more protected, you are going to see an increase in scoring and linemakers will have to adjust,” Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn & Encore in Las Vegas tells Covers.

There’s absolutely no doubt that bookmakers both local and abroad have been paying very close attention to the recent adjustments made to illegal contact penalties. But does that mean there’s no value to be had when it comes to betting Week 1 Overs?

Maybe, maybe not. That doesn’t change the fact that at least one subset of Week 1 totals has been extremely profitable to backers in recent years.

From 2004-2013, totals lined at 39.5 or fewer points in Week 1 have gone 22-30-1 (.423) to the Over. But as scoring has outpaced the increase in Week 1 totals over the last five years, that record improves slightly to 11-12-1 (.478) to the over.

Break this subset down further to the last three years and you get a record of 7-2 (.777), which makes playing the over in the Oakland-New York Jets (39.5) and Carolina-Tampa Bay (39.5) games an enticing proposition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football opening line report: "Right number" in marquee game
By COLIN KELLY

College football is finally going to have a playoff this year – sort of, with four teams getting a shot at the national title come season’s end.

A few teams that expect to be in the mix will get things rolling when the 2014 campaign kicks off this week, led by Thursday night’s clash between No. 21 Texas A&M and No. 9 South Carolina.

The host Gamecocks opened as 12-point chalk one month ago, with the number now at 10.5 as Aggies bettors have moved the needle a little bit, despite losing star quarterback Johnny Manziel to the NFL.

But South Point oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro says his place hasn’t seen any line shift.

“We painted the game at -11 and have never moved off of it,” Vaccaro said. “This is a great way to start off the season, with two name-recognition teams. But there’s been nothing to make us move the line either way.”

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5)

This border battle was also the season opener for both teams last year, with Clemson winning a shootout 38-35 as a 1.5-point home underdog. The Bulldogs are ranked 12th in the preseason, and the Tigers enter Saturday’s game at No. 16. Vaccaro said the South Point opened the game at Georgia -8.5, but a $2,000 bet on Clemson tightened it a notch to 8.

“In a game like this, there will be plenty of support for both sides – both are marquee teams,” he said. “I feel like there’s a buzz with Georgia, with (coach) Mark Richt in a make-or-break season. It’s the right number, right where it should be.”

Florida State Seminoles (-17.5) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Defending national champion Florida State is coming off a 14-0 season, and with Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston back at QB, the Seminoles are a consensus No. 1 in the preseason polls.

The game is Saturday night at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys.

“We have the game at -18. It’s all small stuff. If the number goes up any higher, the smarts will get on Oklahoma State,” Vaccaro said, noting he indeed expects the number to jump. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the game went to -20.”

Despite the Cowboys playing not too far from home?

“I’ll bet a ham sandwich that there are as many Florida State fans in the stadium as Oklahoma State fans,” Vaccaro said.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Louisiana State Tigers (-4)

It’s another neutral-site game, with both squads traveling to Houston’s NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Texans. And it’s another top-25 battle, with LSU ranked 13th and Wisconsin 14th.

“There’s not that much play on the game yet,” Vaccaro said. “Once again, it’s a great game, and it will draw plenty of attention, with a great time slot (9 p.m. Eastern kickoff). I’m gonna guess it closes at LSU -3.5. There will be plenty of Wisconsin money on game day.”

Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Navy Midshipmen

Ohio State opened as 19-point favorites for this quasi-neutral-site game, at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium. But that was before the Buckeyes lost superstar QB Braxton Miller for the entire season due to a shoulder injury.

“We opened at 17.5, went to 18, saw the injury report and went back to 12.5, and now we’re back to 14,” Vaccaro said. “I don’t know where this one’s going. If it goes up anymore, then you’re saying Miller is only worth 2 to 3 points. I would consider him worth more than that.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The easiest and hardest opening schedules in college football
By KEVIN CAUSEY

One of the most discussed aspects of college football is scheduling and, more specifically, how a teams' schedule can have a great impact on their season.

Let's take a look at some teams that will take it easy at the beginning of the season and some that will jump right into it...

Easiest Schedules

Arizona State

Opponents: Weber State, at New Mexico, at Colorado

The Sun Devils' opponents combined to go 9-27 last season. The game to watch from a betting perspective is the Colorado game because the Buffs will be better than last year and ASU may be looking forward to their next opponent, UCLA.

Mississippi State

Opponents: Southern Miss, UAB, at South Alabama

These teams also combined to go 9-27 with Southern Miss and UAB splitting just three wins between them. The game to watch is South Alabama because it's on the road and the Jaguars tend to play their opponents close, only losing one game by double digits in 2013.

Duke

Opponents: vs Elon, at Troy, vs Kansas

With this opening schedule, the loss of offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will be minimized as his replacement will have time to ease into position. Keep an eye on the Troy game as they played the Blue Devils close in 2013, only losing by seven in Durham.

Hardest Schedules

Clemson

Opponents: at Georgia, South Carolina State, at FSU

Even though there is a cupcake stuck in the middle, it doesn't get much tougher than this. Florida State has won the last three games in this series in Tallahassee against Clemson. Georgia will be looking to return the favor from last year when the Tigers won by three in Death Valley. From a betting perspective, remember that Georgia is 2-7-2 ATS in it's last 11 games and both Clemson and Georgia have a recent history of going over on points.

Georgia

Opponents: vs Clemson, at South Carolina, vs Troy

The opener against Clemson will have a potential impact on the college football playoff and the last two times Georgia traveled to Columbia to play South Carolina they came up short. One thing to keep in mind is that Georgia gets a week off after the Clemson game while the Gamecocks will host East Carolina.

South Carolina

Opponents: vs Texas A&M, vs East Carolina, vs Georgia

One thing Carolina's first three opponents have in common is that they can score points in a hurry and that will be something to watch with the Gamecocks losing Connor Shaw this year. Another thing to watch is the ECU game as it's a classic trap game stuffed in between two conference games with one of those being a rivalry game. Don't forget that ECU beat two ACC teams last year and only lost to Virginia Tech by five.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Trojans backers should act fast
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans (-21)

Southern Cal opened as 22-point home favorites, but the line has come down to a favorable number to back the Trojans. These two teams closed last season by playing in the Las Vegas Bowl and USC cruised to a 45-20 win. Fresno State lost QB Derek Carr to graduation along with five other offensive starters. With their best team in over a decade (11-2), the Bulldogs were no match for the Trojans.

USC has a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian, and reports out of Los Angeles say the team is focused and motivated for the upcoming season. The Trojans have a wealth of talent on hand, and their defense will be outstanding. This is a big statement game for the Trojans, and it comes against a team they simply dominate at every position. Lay the three touchdowns now before the sharp bettors take out the good number.

Spread to wait on

Arkansas Razorbacks (+20.5) at Auburn Tigers

Auburn is currently a 20.5-point home favorite over Arkansas, but this line is likely to go higher as we get closer to kickoff. Public bettors often remember what they last saw, and that was Auburn a minute away from winning the National Championship last season.

Arkansas slogged through a miserable 3-9 season last year; the Razorbacks were 0-8 in SEC play, including a 35-17 home loss to Auburn. But in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema, Arkansas will be a much improved team. We expect this line to reach the important number of 21, and at that price and preferably with another half point, we suggest taking Arkansas in this game.

Total to watch

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (57.5)

This total opened at 58, and early money has come in on the Under. Clemson has to replace a lot of their potent offense of a season ago (40.4 points per game), and they will be starting an inexperienced QB under center. Clemson’s defense returns seven starters from a unit that only gave up 22.2 points per game in 2013.

Georgia’s offense is also an unknown commodity, and that unit has been fighting nagging injuries during camp. The Bulldogs’ defense has the potential to be one of the best in the country, and they should limit Clemson’s production in this game. This total is quite high considering the makeup of both teams, and it will likely continue to drop as we get closer to game day.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five college football teams on upset alert in Week 1
By KEVIN CAUSEY

Every year we see upsets during the first week of the season. Here are five games to keep on upset alert during the opening week of the college football season.

Portland State Vikings at Oregon State Beavers (-31)

If history is any indication, then Oregon State is in trouble in their opener. Last season, the Beavers lost to Eastern Washington 49-46. In 2011, they fell to Sacramento State 29-28. Portland State lost four games last season but did play Cal close (lost 37-30) and their biggest loss from 2013 was 28 points so even if they don't pull the upset, they could cover the spread.

Likelihood of upset: Small

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5)

With the exception of 2012, under Brian Kelly, the Irish have been bitten by the upset bug. In 2010 it was Navy and Tulsa. In 2011 it was USF. In 2013 it was Pitt. Notre Dame is in the midst of an internal investigation into academic misconduct and you have to wonder if their attention will be elsewhere when they face off with the defending Conference USA Champions.

Likelihood of upset: Medium

California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats (-10)

In 2013, Cal was flat out awful. Last year, Cal lost over 50 starters to injury, they broke in a new QB and they had a coaching change so they had to adjust to a change in schemes. On the flip side, Northwestern just found out that their top receiver, Christian Jones, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both of these teams are coming off of very disappointing 2013 seasons and it was be an interesting game to watch.

Likelihood of upset: Medium

Utah State Aggies at Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)

The Vols lost every player on their offensive and defensive line. They also just named Justin Worley their starting quarterback, which seems like a disappointment based on his past performance. Can talent at RB and WR overcome the question-marks the Vols have? Another big factor in this game will be Utah State's star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who will be returning from injury.

Likelihood of upset: XL

Youngstown State at Illinois (-10)

Tim Beckman's era at Illinois has been a huge disappointment through two years. The Illini have gone 6-18 overall and 1-15 in Big Ten play. In Illinois only game against an FCS opponent in 2013, they won by just eight points. Youngstown State went 8-4 last season and isn't a team to be taken lightly. Remember 2012 when the Penguins went to Pitt and came away with a 31-17 victory?

Likelihood of upset: Jumbo

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three live long-shots to win 2014 NFL Most Valuable Player
By JASON LOGAN

Since 2000, the NFL Most Valuable Player Award has been given to a quarterback 10 times, with running backs picking up the other three MVP nods. And, heading into the 2014 season, oddsmakers have given football bettors little reason to believe that’s going to change.

Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck all top the NFL MVP props board, but for those NFL offseason bettors looking for value, here are three live long shots to earn NFL’s top individual honor:

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+5,000)

There are rumblings in the Motor City that 2014 could finally be the year the Lions live up to expectations. Detroit is strong on both sides of the ball but Stafford headlines one of the most dynamic scoring attacks in the NFL, with Calvin Johnson (+2,000 to win MVP), Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate.

If the Lions take the NFC North, we wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford’s name pops up in MVP chats – perhaps even splitting the honor with Megatron, like a Stockton-and-Malone dynamic.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (+5,000)

The AFC North is up for grabs and the Steelers come into 2014 with a bad taste in their mouths after missing out on the postseason the past two years. Roethlisberger watched his numbers skyrocket when Pittsburgh injected its offense with a no-huddle attack, throwing for 4,261 yards and 28 touchdowns.

Big Ben still needs better protection from his offensive line, which allowed 2.7 sacks per game in 2013. But with Pittsburgh adding some pop to the running game, thanks Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, defenses won’t be able to tee off with the pass rush like they did when the Steelers stumbled for 86.4 rushing yards per game – fifth lowest in 2013.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans (+15,000)

If the Texans are going to rise from the dead in the AFC South, a lot of that burden will fall on the injury-prone shoulders of Arian Foster. Houston’s defense should take care of business, so the offense won’t need to score a ton of points.

However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the starting job, the Texans are hoping Foster can return to his form of the previous three seasons, when he rumbled for a combined 4,264 yards and 41 touchdowns. A postseason return for Houston and a healthy, productive year from Foster could make him a very live long shot for MVP.

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.

 

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

125 key betting notes for 125 college football teams

College football is almost here. And, if you spent most of your summer partying like a college kid instead of studying like one, you could be feeling the crunch as you prepare your Week 1 wagers.

If you need some key betting info – and need it now – Covers has the hurry-up offense you’re looking for, offering a key betting tidbit for all 125 FBS college football programs.

AAC

Central Florida Knights (2013: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Yes, the Knights lose significant talent from last year's squad, including QB Blake Bortles. But the cupboard is by no means bare. George O'Leary has built this program to last,and the Knights should find themselves at the top of the AAC heap if everything goes according to plan in 2014.

Cincinnati Bearcats (2013: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The schedule should allow for that with three of their first four games coming at home, against beatable opponents (the lone road game comes at Ohio State). Expectations aren't all that high this year and that could be a good thing.

Connecticut Huskies (2013: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Forty-one year old Bob Diaco takes over the team and things can only get better, right? After finishing last season on a high note, and with plenty of returning talent, the Huskies could make some noise - provided they can catch a few breaks here in 2014.

Houston Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Simply put, the Cougars were one of the best bets in the entire nation last year - a feat that teams are rarely able to repeat. The betting marketplace will likely catch up with Houston in 2014. Will the offense be able to mix things up enough to keep defenses honest?

Tulane Green Wave (2013: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Losing WR Ryan Grant hurts immensely. Not only is Grant gone, but there's no sure thing at quarterback. Defensively, the Green Wave always seem to be facing an uphill battle and 2014 should be no different.

Memphis Tigers (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

There are too many question marks on offense, not just at the quarterback position, but all over the field. Maybe this is the year we start to see progress. But I believe too much is going to be asked of the Tigers ground game and they simply don't have the horses to thrive in that regard.

East Carolina Pirates (2013: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

For those that have followed this program in recent years, it should come as no surprise that the offense will once again pave the way to any success. The duo of QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy will be one to watch throughout the 2014 campaign.

South Florida Bulls (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Don't be fooled by last year's poor record, this is a program that is headed in the right direction under the guidance of Willie Taggart. The Bulls played their best football near the end of last season and have a roster loaded with players ready to take a big leap forward in 2014.

SMU Mustangs (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

After a truly mediocre 2013 campaign, the Mustangs aren't going to grab much attention from bettors, and that's not a bad thing. June Jones has the personnel in place to get the offense humming again, even with the departure of QB Garrett Gilbert.

Temple Owls (2013: 2-10 SU, 8-4 ATS)

I hate to oversimplify things, but the bottom line is that the Owls aren’t going to win many games. If you like hoping and praying for backdoor covers, by all means, get behind the Owls. But expectations are low for a reason again this year.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2013: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

After going through some serious growing pains in 2013, there's no reason to expect an immediate rebound in 2014. Losing three offensive linemen and two running backs will further stall the progress of this unit and ultimately keep the Hurricane from breaking through.

ACC

Florida State Seminoles (2013: 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS)

The two-time defending ACC champions are the odds on favorite to win a third straight title, and for good reason. Even after winning a national title, the sky is still the limit for this program. They’re loaded with returning talent – including Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston - and the rest of the ACC should be at least a step behind.

Louisville Cardinals (2013: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The winning pedigree is firmly entrenched in this program and it enters the new season with a big chip on its shoulder, as it certainly draws its share of critics. The cupboard is never bare at Louisville and new head coach Bobby Petrino will have his squad motivated.

Pittsburgh Panthers (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Is there enough talent on board to compete with the big boys? The Panthers are at least a year away from making a big splash. Putting points on the board consistently could be an issue against the conference’s better defenses.

North Carolina State Wolfpack (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Things are looking up for the Wolfpack and they should have an upset or two in them once ACC play begins. Injuries played a big role in their struggles a year ago. But as long as they can stay healthy, they can make a major leap and quite possibly win five or six games.

Syracuse Orange (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Most are down on the Orange, even after they’ve reached a Bowl game in three of the last four years. The program will be a little more settled in the second year of the post-Doug Marrone era and another winning ATS mark is well within reach under the guidance of the underrated Scott Shafer.

Boston College Eagles (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Few were paying much attention, but the Eagles enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign a year ago and are poised to take another step forward in Steve Addazio’s second year at the helm. How many bettors will be interested in supporting the Eagles without star RB Andre Williams? The lighter the bandwagon, the more value we’ll likely see.

Clemson Tigers (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

If Florida State slips up, Clemson will be right there to take over the ACC throne. The Tigers will once again field an elite squad, thanks to stellar recruiting in recent years. With a number of key pieces moving on to greener pastures, bettors might not be so quick to back the Tigers this year, providing some early season value.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

This is still a program that has its work cut out for it personnel wise. Any success this year would be considered a bonus, as the Deacons are probably looking at another two or three years before they can make any sort of splash in an extremely tough conference.

Virginia Cavaliers (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

There’s no question the Cavaliers are going to be an ACC bottom feeder this year, and probably next year as well. If you don’t have a high pain threshold, you’ll probably want to steer clear of a team that won’t put many points on the board on a weekly basis.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2013: 7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

This is a year for the Yellow Jackets to make a move, as the schedule affords them such an opportunity. Of their first 10 contests, only two will come against Top 30 teams from a year ago. I don’t mind supporting teams that bettors aren’t all that high on and Georgia Tech falls into that category in 2014.

Duke Blue Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Duke’s schedule starts rather light, with four very winnable games right off the bat. In fact, it never really reached a fever pitch, meaning the potential is there for the Blue Devils to repeat last year’s 10-win performance. The offense should continue to roll along, with continuity where they need it most.

North Carolina Tar Heels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

North Carolina’s defense remains a weakness and that’s a problem in the ACC. While the offense will be explosive, it isn’t without a few question marks. After an extended run of success, opponents will most definitely gunning for the Tar Heels in 2014.

Miami Hurricanes (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

The Hurricanes have seen their win total improve in each of the last three years. Turning that trick for a fourth consecutive season is a tall task to be sure. The quarterback position needs to be settled - never a good thing. Neither is replacing a pair of anchors on the offensive line.

Virginia Tech Hokies (2013: 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)

The Hokies have the element of surprise working for them coming off two bad seasons (by Blacksburg standards). Even without a proven quarterback, Virginia Tech is still capable of contending for the Coastal Division title. The defense could be downright nasty and if the Hokies catch a few breaks, they could shake up the ACC.

Big 12

Oklahoma Sooners (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The overwhelming favorites to win the conference are also legitimate National Championship contenders. Oklahoma gets all of its toughest games at home this season, and have the best defense in the Big 12 - one of the best stop units in all of college football.

Baylor Bears (2013: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Baylor’s offense is dynamic and virtually unstoppable. Quarterback Bryce Petty returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s nation-leading offense that averaged 52.4 points and 618.8 yards per game. Baylor head coach Art Briles has led the Bears to a 30-10 record over the last three seasons.

Texas Longhorns (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The Mack Brown era is over as Charlie Strong comes over from Louisville. Texas was stale under Brown and the coaching change is definitely a positive. With 15 returning starters, Strong has the pieces to make Texas relevant again this season. The Longhorns’ defense will keep them competitive in every game.

Kansas State Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Kansas State has a lot of momentum after winning six of its last seven games to closeout 2013. The Wildcats will have a potent offense with QB Jake Waters and all of the playmakers returning. Bill Snyder rarely gets out-coached and with lesser expectations this season, Kansas State will surprise.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

The team returns just eight total starters and its road schedule is brutal in conference play. Trips to TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially late in the season when injuries and fatigue take their toll.

TCU Horned Frogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

TCU’s defense returns nine starters from a unit that was one of the best in the Big 12 last season. The Horned Frogs will be even better this season with experience, especially since their best players return. Despite eight losses in 2013, TCU was competitive in six of those games while losing by 10 points or less.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Texas Tech closed the 2013 regular season by losing five straight games. The defense allowed 38 points or more in every one of those games. The defensive line is inexperienced with JuCo transfers and the overall youth on defense will limit Texas Tech’s season.

West Virginia Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS)

West Virginia plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and it’s going to be extremely difficult for WVU to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers open with Alabama in Atlanta and then face Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Kansas State over a 10-week stretch.

Iowa State Cyclones (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Iowa State has a lot of positives working in its favor. Expectations are extremely low in Ames, so the Cyclones may catch some teams by surprise. The offense is in “remodeling mode” according to new coordinator Mark Mangino. Iowa State has 15 returning starters and its toughest games are at home. Five of its nine losses last season came by eight points or less.

Kansas Jayhawks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

The Jayhawks have been embarrassingly bad on offense the last two years. They averaged just 18.3 points per game in 2012 and 15.3 points per game in 2013. The Big 12 has some strong defensive teams and unless Kansas’ offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish in the cellar once again in 2014.

Big Ten

Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.

Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.

Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.

Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.

Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.

Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.

Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)

Braxton Miller is just the one person this team cannot lose and feel that they will not struggle to win 10 games this season. Their schedule is still favorable but it will be difficult for them to win four Big 10 road games without the two-time offensive conference players of the year.

Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.

Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.

Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.

Conference USA

Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.

UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.

North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.

Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.

Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)

The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.

Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.

UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.

UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)

UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.

Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.

Independents

Army Black Knights (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Army went 7-6 in 2010 for its only winning season since 1996. It has won a grand total of eight games the past three years and in 13 of its last 16 campaigns it has won no more than three games. A dreadful defense in 2013 gave up at least 21 points in all nine of the Black Knights’ losses, including at least 33 points in seven of the nine. The coaching regime changed, which should be a good thing in the long run but does not bode well for the immediate future as the program looks to establish a new identity.

Brigham Young Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Their experienced backfield notwithstanding, the Cougars have some rebuilding - or reloading - to do. The top three wide receivers from 2013, including all-time leading receiver Cody Hoffman, graduated. Mitch Mathews (23 catches, 397 yards) is their top returnee in that department. On the defensive side of the ball, BYU lost starting linebackers Uani Unga, Tyler Beck and second-round NFL Draft pick Kyle Van Noy. As for the schedule, the Cougars will pay visits to Texas, Central Florida, Boise State, and California.

Navy Midshipmen (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Navy has been one of the most consistent programs in college football, with 10 winning seasons in its last 11 campaigns and borderline domination of its fellow service academies during this stretch. The team’s triple-option offense racked up 33.5 points and 411.3 yards per game last year and returns most of its key pieces, including quarterback Keenan Reynolds. A rising junior, Reynolds is well on his way to becoming one of Navy’s greats. This is the Midshipmen’s final season as independents before moving to the American Athletic Conference in 2015. They will want to send a message to their new foes before joining the fray.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Golson is a year removed from competition and Zaire is obviously unproven at the college level. Even so, quarterback is nowhere near Notre Dame’s biggest question mark. The team will have to overcome a plethora of big losses. In addition to Rees, defensive tackles Louis Nix III and Stephon Tuitt, offensive linemen Zack Martin, inside linebacker Carlo Calabrese, and tight end Troy Niklas -to name just some - are all gone. The Irish once again have a tough schedule with few “gimme” games. Among the tests are vs. Michigan, Stanford, North Carolina, and Louisville, and at Florida State, Navy, and Southern Cal.

Mid-American

Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.

Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.

Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)

Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.

Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.

Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.

Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).

Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.

Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.

Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.

Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.

Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mountain West

Air Force Falcons (2013: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS)

The overall talent level just isn’t on par with the rest of the Mountain West. It’s quite simply an uphill battle for the Falcons and you might not want to be along for the ride. Size and speed are an issue, particularly on the defensive side of the football.

Boise State Broncos (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The sky isn’t falling in Boise. Sure, there’s a change at the helm and the Broncos are coming off back-to-back down years. But things are looking up heading into 2014 with a wealth of returning talent, not to mention the fact that the Mountain West is wide open. Defense could turn out to be the biggest difference-maker for the Broncos this season.

Colorado State Rams (2013: 8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS)

There could be major problems in the trenches with the Rams losing key cogs on both the offensive and defensive lines. That’s not to mention a gaping hole that needs to be filled in the backfield. How those positions are filled could determine whether Colorado State takes a step forward or shows regression.

New Mexico Lobos (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

It’s not easy to work out the kinks in a conference as tough as the Mountain West. If the passing game struggles and the offense remains completely one-dimensional, reaching a Bowl game will be nothing more than a pipe dream. There are areas where the defense is stout, but not enough talent across the board.

Utah State Aggies (2013: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Two words: Chuckie Keeton. He’s quite simply one of the biggest game breakers in college football, and he’s back after suffering a devastating injury last season. Getting running back Joe Hill back on the field is another major plus.

Wyoming Cowboys (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

This is still going to be a transition year for the Cowboys, and with a difficult schedule, outright wins will be few and far between. Last year’s team had a better offense and still only managed to go 5-7 ATS. The defense will need to be a lot better, and while Bohl will make a difference, a complete turnaround will take a lot of time.

Fresno State Bulldogs (2013: 11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS)

If Fresno State can ‘survive’ a brutal three-game stretch to open the season, they could flourish the rest of the way, with a very manageable nine-game slate. This team plays extremely fast – on both sides of the ball, and with expectations at a reasonable level, they could over-achieve.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2013: 1-11 SU, 7-5 ATS)

The Warriors are probably staring at a pretty long rebuilding phase, and likely at least a year away from what they hope is a return to contention, if not for an unlikely conference title, at least for a Bowl berth. You have to wonder where the Warriors heads are at after suffering through two seasons that couldn’t have gone much worse.

Nevada Wolf Pack (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Fajardo won’t have an envious job given his lacking supporting cast. Nevada’s defensive line got flat-out bullied from start to finish a year ago, and without an infusion of size and strength, a similar story could unfold in 2014.

San Diego State Aztecs (2013: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

The Aztecs have recruited as well as any team in the conference over the last few years, and they’re likely to reap the rewards again this season. You won’t find many weaknesses on the Aztecs roster, with just enough returning, not to mention young talent. Another Bowl bid is a virtual lock.

San Jose State Spartans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

We’ve seen the Spartans evolve into a Bowl contender on a seemingly yearly basis, but they’ll be in bounce-back position after a .500 campaign in 2013. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. This is a team that seems to perform better when it has a chip on its shoulder, and I expect that to hold true this year.

UNLV Rebels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

We could see the defense get pushed around up front, putting a little too much pressure on the secondary to carry the load. Even with a wealth of talent at wide receiver, the offense will only go as far as the quarterback position can carry it and that’s an issue with the personnel available under center.

Pac-12

Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.

Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.

California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.

Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.

Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.

Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.

Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.

UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)

UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.

USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.

Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.

Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?

Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)

The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.

SEC

Alabama Crimson Tide (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Alabama will be a motivated team after failing to get to the National Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide has the most talented team in the country and they’ll be ready to play from the get-go after losing the Sugar Bowl to finish a disappointing 2013 season.

LSU Tigers (2013: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

LSU has a strong team every year and 2014 will be no different. The Tigers have an easy path early on this season and they could very well be undefeated when they host Alabama in November. Their offensive line is one of the best in the country and they’ll pave the way for one of the top rushing attacks in the nation.

South Carolina Gamecocks (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

South Carolina has gone 11-2 in each of the last three years, so it’s been an ultra-consistent team. The Gamecocks return 14 starters and a quarterback (Dylan Thompson) that has plenty of playing experience.

Auburn Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 12-2 ATS)

Auburn’s run in 2013 was a big surprise and it will be hard pressed to catch any team off guard this season. The Tigers won six games by eight points or less last season and will be tough to win all the close games this year. Auburn’s road schedule is brutal and it’s likely to regress in 2014.

Georgia Bulldogs (2013: 8-5 SU, 3-9-1 ATS)

Georgia was besieged with injuries in 2013 and it simply did not have a fair season. The Bulldogs’ defense will be tremendous and they will be an overall improved team in 2014. Despite losing quarterback Aaron Murray, Georgia will be led by sophomore Hutson Matson, who gained valuable experience when playing as a true freshman last year.

Mississippi Rebels (2013: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Mississippi will be a very good team this season. It returns a loaded team that includes 15 starters. Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford and his teams improve as the years go on. The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball and they are a true dark-horse contender in the SEC in 2014.

Florida Gators (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Florida had a dismal 2013 but signs are pointing up for the Gators in 2014. Injuries played a major role in their losing season, but a reversal of health figures to grace the Gators. Half of Florida’s losses last year came by six points or less, so it was competitive despite playing with an undermanned team.

Tennessee Volunteers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

They are the only team in the country that lost all of their starters along the offensive and defensive lines. Tennessee also needs a quarterback to step in and lead the offense. This will be another rebuilding season for the Volunteers and they’ll be on the border of the six-win mark in 2014.

Missouri Tigers (2013: 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS)

The team returns only eight starters and off their best season in years, it’s unlikely they can repeat that success. Missouri’s defense will have the spotlight on it but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed only 23.1 points per game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Mississippi State has had a winning record in four consecutive years and with 16 returning starters, 2014 should be another successful campaign. The Bulldogs play a favorable schedule and their defense will be a stout unit.

Texas A&M Aggies (2013: 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Quarterback Johnny Manziel is gone along with big playmaker Mike Evans. Texas A&M’s defense does return nine starters, but that unit allowed an ugly 32.2 points per game last season. They also play six road games this season compared to playing just four away games last year.

Arkansas Razorbacks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Arkansas holds value this season after going 3-9 in 2013. The Razorbacks will be much improved in the second year under head coach Bret Bielema. With 14 returning starters and two bye weeks on a tough schedule, Arkansas will pull an upset or two this season.

Kentucky Wildcats (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Coming off back-to-back 2-10 seasons, Kentucky should be a much better team in 2014, especially with the return of 15 starters. The Wildcats will be in their second year under head coach Mark Stoops and will have a solid defense that will keep them competitive in 2014.

Vanderbilt Commodores (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Head coach James Franklin left for Penn State and his departure will have a major impact on Vanderbilt’s future. The Commodores only return 10 starters and they lost five all-conference players. Vanderbilt will likely regress significantly in 2014.

Sun Belt

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.

South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)

South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.

UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.

Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.

Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.

Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.

Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)

There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.

Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.

New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)

New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.

Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)

The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.

Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.