Hmm, I knew the line would move up, but must admit I didn't expect this line to move up so drastically. Vegas put up a bad line last week with Pats @ Dallas -- but the Pats/Indy matchup is incredibly lopsided. Of course, under most circumstances laying a ton of points on the road is a bad strategy. But this isn't most games. I don't like a lot this week. I like the Lions, I think at -3. Maybe Washington now that the line is 7. But not a lot sticks out.
Spring line was IND -1. Something to keep in mind. Like ATL @ NWO, thats a TD + line move.
No wat you're saying the Pats/Colts game is more lopsided than the Pats/Dallas game? Are you?
The Colts will give better offensive game, but the Colts defense sucks.....Dallas has a better defense.
Patriots should win 38-21
NFL 2015: YTD: 37-21-2: (+34.8 units)
4 unit plays: 3-1 (+7.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-1 (+5.7 units)
2 unit plays: 16-4-1 (+23.0)
1 unit plays: 15-15-1 (-0.1 units)
Week 6
(I went 1-1 on one unit plays Thursday for a total of -.1 units)
NE -7 (-120) 4 units (ie, 4.8 units to win 4)
I posted this a week ago about getting on this one early. A long write-up probably isn’t needed. The Patriots have won by an average of 29 the last 4 times these teams have played. They are playing extremely well on both sides of the ball, while the Colts have looked rather bad and were lucky to squeak by Jax and Tenn. This may be the last week there is any value in betting the Patriots as a big victory will start to put an even larger tax on their games in future weeks. Betting on Den and the NYJ, especially at home, might be great weeks to fade NE, but this week isn’t. Let’s squeeze at least one more week from this Pat’s squad, for my max bet: 4 units.
Tenn -1 (3 units)
The Titans are only 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 at home. But I think they are still being taxed like a laughing stock when are a competitive team. While they are 1-3 SU this year, they lost two Indy by 2 and Buff by 1 and are 3-1 ATS. The Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. This line should be at least Titans -3. The team is facing an interim coach in his first game and, knowing Indy is likely to lose, has a chance to stay in the race. This is my favorite 1 am play.
Wash + 7 (1 unit)
Washington might not be a great football team, but they are a fiesty dog. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8, so they are not to be taken lightly. But Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets laying a TD against any team is probably too high. And the Skins have only lost by more than 1 score 1 time this season. Too many points, so I will grab them.
I am leaning heavily toward Pitt and maybe Cinci as well, but I am still mulling those games.
4 unit plays: 3-1 (+7.6 units)
3 unit plays: 3-1 (+5.7 units)
2 unit plays: 16-4-1 (+23.0)
1 unit plays: 15-15-1 (-0.1 units)
Week 6
(I went 1-1 on one unit plays Thursday for a total of -.1 units)
NE -7 (-120) 4 units (ie, 4.8 units to win 4)
I posted this a week ago about getting on this one early. A long write-up probably isn’t needed. The Patriots have won by an average of 29 the last 4 times these teams have played. They are playing extremely well on both sides of the ball, while the Colts have looked rather bad and were lucky to squeak by Jax and Tenn. This may be the last week there is any value in betting the Patriots as a big victory will start to put an even larger tax on their games in future weeks. Betting on Den and the NYJ, especially at home, might be great weeks to fade NE, but this week isn’t. Let’s squeeze at least one more week from this Pat’s squad, for my max bet: 4 units.
Tenn -1 (3 units)
The Titans are only 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 at home. But I think they are still being taxed like a laughing stock when are a competitive team. While they are 1-3 SU this year, they lost two Indy by 2 and Buff by 1 and are 3-1 ATS. The Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games. This line should be at least Titans -3. The team is facing an interim coach in his first game and, knowing Indy is likely to lose, has a chance to stay in the race. This is my favorite 1 am play.
Wash + 7 (1 unit)
Washington might not be a great football team, but they are a fiesty dog. The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8, so they are not to be taken lightly. But Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets laying a TD against any team is probably too high. And the Skins have only lost by more than 1 score 1 time this season. Too many points, so I will grab them.
I am leaning heavily toward Pitt and maybe Cinci as well, but I am still mulling those games.
