Easy Pickins
OREGON (-24.5) by 31.53 over Maryland - Saturday, November 9. The computer trend line has the Ducks by 28.77 in the first-ever meeting between these schools. The Terps are extremely reliant on the passing game to move the ball with 72.5% of their yardage coming through the air. Oregon can be pass-centric, as well, but it's a 64% clip. The Ducks rank 5th in pass defense in the B1G and Maryland ranks last.
TULANE (-26.5) by 35.50 over Temple - Saturday, November 9. The computer trend line adds a couple points for the Green Wave to make it a 37.17-point margin. Tulane is ranked 4th on total offense in the American and Temple is last. The Green Wave are 3rd in total defense and the Owls are 8th. Tulane is 3-1 ATS at home, while Temple is 1-3 ATS on the road.
Iowa (-5.5) by 11.24 over UCLA - Saturday, November 9. The computer trend line raises the margin to 13.18 for the Hawkeyes who rank 1st in the B1G in rushing offense and face UCLA's No. 3 rushing defense. But the Bruins rank 16th on offense (out of 18 teams) against Iowa's No. 8 total defense.
Army (-5.5) by 7.36 over NORTH TEXAS - Saturday, November 9. Army's No. 3 offense faces UNT's No. 13 defense (out of 14 AAC schools). UNT's No. 1 offense faces Army's No.1 defense. Even without QB Bryson Daily, who is questionable, Army should be able to cover a rather small spread. The computer trend line puts the margin at 8.77.
Hold Your Horses
Clemson (-6.5) by 1.77 over VIRGINIA TECH - Saturday, November 9. Both teams are coming off losses with Clemson falling 33-21 at home to Louisville and Virginia Tech dropping a 38-31 OT game at Syracuse. Clemson has won 6 straight in the series, but the last 3 were under Justin Fuente (0-3) as these teams haven't met since the Covid season of 2020. The concern is the questionable status of RB Bhayshul Tuten and QB Kyron Drones, but they had neither last week at the 'Cuse and should have won the game. With those two, we'd be tempted to the Hokies as the outright favorite. Without them, we can see this a 3 or 4-point ballgame.
Upsets
Central Florida by 3.94 over ARIZONA STATE (-2.5) Saturday, November 9. The computer trend line favors the Sun Devils (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) to cover the spread with a favored margin of 7.17 points over the visiting Knights (4-5, 2-4), but that only adds more confusion to a game where some numbers point one way, and others take you in a different direction. Behind new QB Dylan Rizk, UCF snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 56-12 blowout of Arizona in Orlando in the Space Game that pays homage to the school's many graduates working in the space industry on the nearby Space Coast at Cape Canaveral. ASU was a 42-21 winner at Oklahoma State after getting a week off to recover from a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. UCF brings an offense that tops the conference while ASU ranks 4th in the Big 12 in total defense. The Sun Devils are 8th in the Big 12 on offense and the Knights are 9th on defense. Both teams feature a dangerous runner attack with the Knights led by RJ Harvey (133.44 yards per game) at No. 3 in the nation, and the Sun Devils' Cam Skattebo (129.86 per game) at No. 7. UCF ranks 3rd, and Arizona State 2nd, in rushing defense. The Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS at home, while UCF is 2-1 ATS on the road.
West Virginia by 5.47 over CINCINNATI (-4.5) - Saturday, November 9. The Mountaineers (4-4, 3-2) were a 14.22-point preseason favorite to win this game. Now, they rare only a 5.47 pick, and the computer trend line flips this game to Cincinnati by 3.27. The Bearcats (5-3, 3-2) average 32 more yards per game but give up 30 more. WVU is 17-3-1 all-time in the series, including last year's 42-21 win in Morgantown which was the first meeting between these schools since 2011.
TEXAS TECH by 0.06 over Colorado (-3.5) - Saturday, November 9. Deion Sanders takes his Heisman candidates to Lubbock with a bowl bid secured, but hungry for more. His QB son, Shedeur, is 7th in passing yards per game and 10th in QB rating. Famed two-way starter Travis Hunter is universally regarded as the best player in the college ranks this season. But Texas Tech ranks 2nd in the Big 12 in total offense and Colorado is only 12th. On defense, the Buffaloes are 8th and the Red Raiders are 15th out of 16 teams. The computer trend line takes Colorado by 8.83.
OLE MISS by 4.42 over Georgia (-2.5) - Saturday, November 9. It always feel like a stretch to bet against Georgia, but the 'Dawgs are even bigger underdogs on the computer trend line at 7.81 points. Georgia won 52-17 over Kiffin and Company last year in Athens so they would, no doubt, love to exact some revenge. Prior to last season, the teams had not met since 2016 when Ole Miss won 45-14 in Oxford. Hugh Freeze was in his last season as the HC of the Rebels and Kirby Smart was in his first season at Georgia. Ole Miss is No. 1 in the SEC in passing offense and total offense. Georgia is 7th in total offense and 3rd in passing offense. Georgia is 3rd in total defense and Ole Miss ranks 7th.
Kennesaw by 2.74 over UTEP (-3.5) - Saturday, November 9. Kennesaw (1-7, 1-3 CUSA) derailed Liberty's unbeaten season two weeks ago by upsetting the Flames 27-24 in Kennesaw for the first win of the Owls' FBS existence after moving up this year. UTEP (1-8, 1-5) is nothing to fear, but the computer trend line still likes the Miners by 3.82 points.
USF by 4.42 over Navy (-3.5) - Saturday, November 9. The computer tend line has Navy favored by 5.02 points to snap a 2-game losing streak after opening with 6 straight wins. The first loss, of course, was a blowout to Notre Dame, which as followed by last week's 24-10 shutdown at Rice. The Owls have the No. 7 rushing defense in the American Athletic Conference, while the Bulls rank 6th, so this could be another difficult outing for the Midshipmen, regardless of the spread and the trend line pointing in their direction.
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