Stanford Steve and The Bear: College football bowl game picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview the 2022 college football bowl season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Check back each week for more Bowl Season picks from Stanford Steve and The Bear and all of our Daily Wager talent.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-0. Season: 44-22-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 1-0. Season: 30-22-1)
The plays
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force Falcons vs. Baylor Bears (-3.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Stanford Steve: I have no idea what the stats are behind this but one of my stubborn bowl theories I have is that I always take the service academies when they are playing in a bowl game. The weather conditions in Fort Worth looks like will feel like degrees in the teens. Add to that, Baylor is on a three-game losing streak and playing a bowl game in one of their rival's stadiums, while that rival (TCU) is prepping for the College Football Playoff. I'll take the points.
Pick: Air Force +3.5 (Air Force 24 Baylor 23)
Dec. 23
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl - Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs. Houston Cougars (-6.5)
Friday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana
The Bear: This was a Houston team disinterested for much of the year that underachieved. Now it heads to Shreveport to face a Louisiana team that lost one-score games to two of the best teams in the league -- South Alabama and Troy. And who knows whether
Clayton Tune will even play (Tank Dell has said he will, which likely means Tune will). Given the way Louisiana improved throughout the year and the history of Dana Holgorsen's teams not showing up in bowl games, this is a strong play on the Ragin' Cajuns plus the points and a dash on the ML.
Pick: Louisiana +6.5
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl - Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2) vs. Missouri Tigers
Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Stanford Steve: Plenty to try and unfold in this one. Mizzou has plenty of meaningful guys out on their defense, more specifically, their defensive line, which was one of the biggest surprise units of the year. On the other side, you have Wake Forest, who went 1-4 to end the season and allowed over 1,500 yards of offense in their past three games, allowing 30 or more points in their past five games and have their two starting CBs in the transfer portal. Sam Hartman is starting at QB for Wake Forest and he'll be the difference in the game. We'll take the Deacs on the moneyline.
Pick: Wake Forest ML -$125 (Wake Forest 31 Missouri 28)
Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl - Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-7, 49.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN, Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii
The Bear: San Diego State's offense was a little better after the change on the coaching staff but still managed just a field goal vs. Air Force and 14 points vs. UNLV. This team isn't on the level of teams we had been accustomed to seeing from the Aztecs. Middle has blown out Miami and won four of five down the stretch to secure bowl eligibility, so as long the Blue Raiders aren't just headed to Hawaii for vacation -- which we won't know until the game kicks off -- they should be right in this one vs. an average-at-best offense.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +7
Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl - Georgia Southern (-3.5, 67.5) vs. Buffalo Bulls
Tuesday, Noon ET, ESPN, Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
The Bear: Buffalo staggered home down the stretch and needed a near miracle to beat Akron at home just to get bowl eligible. Injuries have really hampered the Bulls' backfield, and now they have to face former QB Kyle VanTrease and an Eagles team that put up 51 on Appalachian State to get to six wins. You'd have to think whatever fans are there will be Georgia Southern fans. Look for Clay Helton's team to score a good bit here and end the year on a high note.
Pick: Georgia Southern -3.5
Dec. 28
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton - Central Florida Knights vs. Duke Blue Devils (-3)
Wednesday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN, Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Stanford Steve: I am really fired up for this matchup. Two teams that had good seasons but feel like they are coming in at different levels. Duke won five ACC games this year after going winless in conference play last year. While UCF comes in losing two of three, including their conference championship game. On top of that, John Ryhs Plumlee's status is unknown. Duke will be ready to go, and we'll take them and give the points.
Pick: Duke -3 (Duke 31 UCF 24)
Dec 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl - No. 23 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Maryland Terrapins (-1)
Friday, Noon p.m. ET, ESPN, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Stanford Steve: I just love how NC State regrouped after losing their QB, Devin Leary to injury this season. They ended up playing four different quarterbacks enroute to eight wins. Now I know the goal wasn't that prior to the season, but to find a way to get there was pretty darn impressive. There's a toughness that Dave Doeren has instilled in this program and a mindset that they will out tough you when times get tough. As, motivated as the Terps were for last year's bowl game, I don't get the same feeling this year. I'll take the 'Pack.
Pick: NC State +1 (NC State 20 Maryland 17)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl - UCLA Bruins (-3.5) vs. Pitt Panthers
Friday, 2 p.m. ET, Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Stanford Steve: From what I gather, all hands on deck for the Bruins. That's all I need to hear with this matchup. I'll take the Bruins and lay the points.
Pick: UCLA -3.5 (UCLA 29 Pitt 19)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Stanford Steve: Really sad. No Mackey Award for Michael Mayer. And no more Michael Mayer in college football. I think the Irish play inspired ball without #87. I'll take the guys from South Bend and lay the points.
Pick: Notre Dame -2 (Notre Dame 23 South Carolina 17)
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 2-0, +2.65 units
Season: 15-37, -14.5 units
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +205
Ohio State Buckeyes +220
Kansas State Wildcats +130
Oklahoma State Cowboys +130
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +225
Bear bytes
- If you are going to play underdogs in bowl season, make sure you play them on the money line for a portion of your play. Since 2008, 36% of bowls -- 182 of 509 -- were won outright by the underdog. 254 underdogs have covered, so that means 71.6% (182-of-254) of underdogs that have covered have also won the game outright.
The numbers are even greater if you limit it to single-digit underdogs. Single-digit dogs have covered less than half the time (49.1%), but 38% (166 of 440) of them have won outright and 76.9% (166 of 216) of them that have covered have also won the game outright.
- If you really like a favorite, don't be afraid to play an alternate line. In the past 10 years, 184 favorites covered the number (49.2), but 128 of the favorites that covered beat the closing number by at least seven points (69.6%).
- Favorites in the College Football Playoff semifinals are 12-4 straight up -- Clemson has won twice as an underdog, and Ohio State has won twice as an underdog. Three of those upsets came in the first three years of the playoff. In the past five years, favorites are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
- Only three of the semifinals have been decided by single digits, and over half (nine) have been decided by 20-plus points, so searching for an alt spread might be the way to go.
- Each of the past three title games have pitted No. 1 vs No. 3.
- There have been just three No. 1 teams favored by single digits or that entered the semis as an underdog -- two lost outright (Alabama 2014 and Clemson 2017).
Air Force
In the past 10 years, service academies are 13-3 ATS (5-1 as an underdog with three outright wins).
Houston
Dana Holgorsen teams are 2-7 ATS and 3-6 SU in bowl games. Holgorsen's teams have lost by at least 14 points in four of their past five bowl games. The five bowl games in which Holgorsen's team was favored resulted in three losses -- two by double digits -- and wins by one and four points.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 7-1 in its past eight bowl games with its only loss coming by one point to Oregon in the 2020 Rose Bowl.
Penn State
Under James Franklin, Penn State is 2-15 vs. top-10 teams and since upsetting Wisconsin to win the 2016 Big Ten championship, the Nittany Lions are 0-11 vs. top-10 teams; however, five of the losses have come by four points or fewer.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes are 3-13 ATS with four outright losses in their past 16 games vs. ranked teams.
Iowa
This will be just the second time in the past 12 bowl games that Iowa enters as a favorite. The bowl game last year vs. Kentucky landed right on the number of three and went under 44 (20-17).
Utah
Utah has lost each of its past three bowl games. Prior to that, the Utes went 11-1 in bowls under Kyle Whittingham.
North Carolina
Last year, UNC lost to South Carolina by 17 as a 12.5-point favorite. This year, the Tar Heels are a 14-point underdog to Oregon.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys covered six straight bowls, winning five outright. The Cowboys' past five bowls have all been decided by single digits and the past four have been decided by a combined 13 points.
Minnesota
The Gophers have won and covered all three bowl games under P.J. Fleck, including twice as an underdog.
Michigan
Michigan is 1-5 ATS and SU in bowl games under Jim Harbaugh, losing its past three by 23, 19 and 26.
MAC
MAC teams have gone 8-9 the past three years in bowl games (10-6-1 ATS). The previous three years, MAC teams went 2-15 (6-10-1 ATS).
ACC
Since 2019, ACC teams not named Clemson are 4-15 in bowl games (2-12 vs. other Power 5 leagues). Of those 19 games, ACC teams were favored just five times (1-4 ATS, 2-3 SU).
Pac-12
Pac-12 teams have lost seven straight bowls dating back to Oregon's 2020 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin. Since 2016, Pac-12 favorites are 4-13-1 ATS in bowls (9-9 SU).
SEC
Last year, unranked SEC teams went 1-6 in bowl games. All three that were favored lost outright. On the flip side, since 2019, ranked SEC teams are 13-3 (excluding games in which SEC teams faced each other). Fifteen of the 16 were favored (9-5-1 ATS).
Big 12
Big 12 teams are 10-2 (9-3 ATS) in bowls over the past two years, with six of the nine wins coming over ranked teams.
Big Ten vs. SEC
Since 2015, the season after Ohio State won the first CFP title, Big Ten teams are 6-16 vs. SEC teams in bowl games, including 0-3 in the CFP, losing by 23, 28 and 38 (124-35 combined score). The seven Big Ten favorites went 2-5 ATS (3-4 SU). The 15 Big Ten underdogs went 4-10-1 ATS (3-12 SU).
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