Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 8 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 8 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-4. Season: 25-13-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 2-3. Season: 15-14-1)
The plays
Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars (-3, 46.5)
The Bear: Two teams that are largely going unnoticed in the grand scheme of things. Troy would be undefeated in league play if not for a Hail Mary by Appalachian State. Meanwhile, South Alabama is a last-second field goal by UCLA away from being undefeated. Both of these teams have had a knack for forcing turnovers this season, but I'll side with the better defense getting points on the road.
Pick: Troy +3
UL Monroe Warhawks at Army Black Knights (-6.5, 55.5)
Stanford Steve: Who wants to take an over in a game with a service academy? I do. The Warhawks come in on a three-game losing streak where they have given up an average of 38 points in those games. Army has lost three straight games to FBS teams, giving up an average of 39 points in that trifecta of games. Those numbers, combined with the differences in styles, tells me it will be a high-scoring game on the banks of the Hudson at Michie Stadium. We'll take over the total between these two teams in the noon eastern window Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Over 55 (Army 38 UL Monroe 24)
West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6.5, 65.5)
The Bear: The Red Raiders have lost two straight since the improbable comeback vs. Texas and had some injury concerns as well. But I'm not sure it matters who plays QB here against a WVU defense that's allowed 757 yards and 7 TD the last two games. The Red Raiders are rested off the idle week, and it seems like a good spot to back them at home against a team coming off an upset win over Baylor.
Pick: Texas Tech -6.5
Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-2.5, 54)
The Bear: Yes, Stanford snapped its FBS losing streak last week, but I think that was more about Notre Dame than Stanford turning the corner. I just have a hard time getting behind a team which was a 16.5-point dog last week and is now favored. ASU has shown some life since the coaching change, capped off by an upset win over Washington two weeks ago, and I think the Sun Devils can win again here.
Pick: Arizona State +2.5
Houston Cougars (-3, 51) vs. Navy Midshipmen
Stanford Steve: Who wants to take another over in a service academy game? I do. The expectation here is that Navy will do what it loves to do, which is possess the ball more than the opponent and be a problem in the run game. The problem with this game plan is that the pass defense, which allows more than 274 yards thru the air, ranks 111th in the country, so time of possession hasn't worked in Navy's favor lately. The strength of the Cougars' offense is the pass game, and after seeing the Navy never-say-die effort last Friday night against SMU (which was featured on Bad Beats this past Monday on SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt), we'll take over the total between these two American Athletic Conference foes on what should be a beautiful day in Annapolis.
Pick: Over 51 (Houston 31 Navy 28)
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks (-6, 70.5)
Stanford Steve: This streak of great games between ranked Pac-12 teams has been awesome to watch, and this matchup up should also be fantastic. But watching USC and Utah play that classic last week and trying to compare it to this matchup, I found myself believing that the Ducks' and Bruins' defenses are better and more physical than those two teams. Both Oregon and UCLA average over 41 points per game, but with both teams coming off a bye, their defenses will be more prepared. With a total this high, it's going to be a hold onto your butts special. We'll take the under.
Pick: Under 70.5 (UCLA 35 Oregon 34)
Florida Atlantic Owls (-4, 51) at UTEP Miners
Stanford Steve: The last time the Miners played a home game, they pulled off a huge upset and beat Boise State. Since then, they have gone on the road and split two games. Having the chance to go to El Paso earlier in my life, I'll just say it's not the most comfortable and normal place. Things will get weird in this one for sure, as both teams give up more than 27 points per game, and both offenses average more than 378 yards of offense per game. We'll take the home team plus the points. Go Miners!
Pick: UTEP +4 (UTEP 19 FAU 17)
Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers (-2, 51.5)
Stanford Steve: The Boilermakers are in the middle of October, and they control their chances of going to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game for the first time in program history. Now, there are a couple of bumps in the road, the first one a trip to Madison. The Badgers have won 15 in a row in this series. The Boilers are 1-18-1 all time vs. Wisconsin as an underdog. The time is now Boilermakers. Let's take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Purdue +2 (Purdue 22 Wisconsin 21)