Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 3 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 3 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-2. Season: 7-3-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 1-3. Season: 3-6)
The plays
UTSA Roadrunners at No. 21 Texas Longhorns (-12.5, 61,5)
Stanford Steve: Well, well, well. What a situation we have here. Big brother (Texas) is fresh off a 15-round fight versus the No. 1-ranked team in the country. On the other side, we have little brother (UTSA) coming into Austin for the first time in the history of the program. Texas impressed the hell out of me last week, as its defensive line gave it to Alabama's offense for 60 minutes; but in the end, it wasn't enough. Now, the Longhorns have what looks like a less than 100 percent Hudson Card under center in this matchup. I just think it's a lot to ask the Longhorns to cover 12.5 points. We'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: UTSA +12.5 (Texas 31, UTSA 23)
California Golden Bears at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11, 40.5)
The Bear: A peek at Notre Dame's schedule reveals not too many gimme wins now that quarterback Tyler Buchner is out. I still think the Irish's defense is a good unit. And even though signal-caller Drew Pyne isn't very mobile, he should be able to function in this offense. Notre Dame's issues last week were turnover-related. And while Justin Wilcox's Golden Bears might force the Notre Dame offense to turn the ball over once again, I also don't have much faith in Cal's offense to score in the red zone or even put together many drives that threaten the end zone. It's a good week to buy low on the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame -10.5
No. 12 BYU Cougars at No. 25 Oregon Ducks (-3.5, 58)
The Bear: I don't have a ton of faith in Oregon's offense, but I think the Ducks' defense is very good. I also believe there's a good chance BYU will again be without Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney; the Cougars were able to overcome the loss of their wide receivers last week at home, but this will be a tougher ask on the road.
The pick: Oregon -3.5
Stanford Steve: This is a big-time matchup in Eugene between two ranked teams. I'm excited to see how it plays out. The Cougars are fresh off a win versus ranked Baylor in overtime, while the Ducks rebounded from an ugly Week 1 loss by scoring 70 points against Eastern Washington. I am not a believer that the Ducks' offense is "fixed" after that performance versus the Eagles. Nor am I believer in the BYU offense, not after last week, when the Cougars had to play without their top two wideouts but only rushed for 83 yards on 33 carries, averaging 2.5 yards per rush. I think both defenses will dictate the game. I'll take the under for the game.
Pick: Under 58 (Oregon 23, BYU 22)
Nevada Wolf Pack at Iowa Hawkeyes (-23, 39)
The Bear: Iowa's Spencer Petras has a 3.4 QBR. Brian Ferentz and the Hawkeyes' offense are a laughingstock in the college football world. So, yes, it's the perfect time to lay 22.5 with Iowa. (Can you sense the sarcasm?) If the Hawkeyes don't turn the ball over, Nevada will have a difficult time scoring. It feels like most will be on Nevada here using "how can Iowa score four TDs" logic, so this number might come down even more.
Pick: Iowa -23
San Diego State Aztecs at No. 14 Utah Utes (-21, 50)
Stanford Steve: Payback is a ...
Pick: Utah -21 (Utah 38, San Diego State 9)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-17.5, 44) at Temple Owls
Stanford Steve: Rutgers is 2-0 and has rushed for 540 yards and eight touchdowns, while the defense is allowing 0.8 yards per rush. Temple needed to block three punts to beat Lafayette last week. I'll lay the points with Rutgers as coach Greg Schiano will look to be impressive in front of all the Philadelphia-area recruits.
Pick: Rutgers -17.5 (Rutgers 29, Temple 3)
Florida State Seminoles (-2.5, 56) at Louisville Cardinals
The Bear: Louisville showed me a little something last week in a game it very easily could have lost. The Cardinals played much better defensively in the second half versus John Rhys Plumlee and the UCF offense while cutting down on the crushing turnovers that plagued them in the loss at Syracuse. While Florida State did get the win in Louisiana versus LSU, I think that might have been more about the Tigers botching things and high-variance aspects like turnovers and the Noles going 11-for-17 on third-down efficiency. I'll take the points and the home team.
Pick: Louisville +2.5
Colorado State Rams at Washington State Cougars (-17, 53.5)
The Bear: This is a brutal spot for Wazzu. The Cougars pulled off the huge upset at Wisconsin last week despite turning the ball over three times and having just 253 total yards. Now, they face a terrible team here and host a huge game with Oregon next week. Remember, this is a squad that struggled with Idaho in the opener, also turning it over three times there. Hold your nose and grab the points.
Pick: Colorado State +17
Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State Wildcats (-14, 48)
The Bear: With Kansas State having Oklahoma on the schedule next week, this could be a bit of a look-ahead spot for the Wildcats. Tulane is one of the teams nationally that doesn't take a back seat to K-State on the special teams front and has an experienced QB in Michael Pratt, who ranks 80 spots higher than Adrian Martinez so far this year. Remember, Tulane went to Oklahoma last year and was right in it late prior to the Green Wave losing a bunch of close games. I don't expect this to be easy at all for K-State.
Pick: Tulane +14
Purdue Boilermakers at Syracuse Orange (-1, 60)
The Bear: Whatever Dino Babers and Robert Anae have done for quarterback Garrett Shrader, they should just keep doing it. This was a make-or-break year in Syracuse, and the early returns have been good as it has been opportunistic on defense and has yet to commit a turnover. A win here likely means the Orange will be 5-0 while hosting NC State, and between the combo of Shrader, Sean Tucker and that defense, I think they'll get it.
Pick: Syracuse -1
