Thank youMarc Lawrence's Playbook September 1-5
Marc Lawrence's Playbook September 1-5.pdf
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Recap
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GoldSheet Week1.pdf
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Marc Lawrence's Playbook September 1-5.pdf
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Pointwise September 3.pdf
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Powers' Picks September 1-5.pdf
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Victor King's Totals Tipsheet September 8-12.pdf
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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 1 college football picks, bets and nuggets
Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 1 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 1-0. Season: 1-0)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 0-0 Season: 0-0)
The Plays
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers (-1.5, 46)
Stanford Steve: Really liked what I saw from the Illini in their Week 0 win and cover over the undermanned Cowboys from Wyoming. The impact of Barry Lunney Jr. (new offensive coordinator) calling plays was made evident pretty early as Chase Brown got loose early. I thought the offensive line looked in sync and will only be better in Week 1. I love the idea the Illini have a week to fine-tune things after having a win already under their belts. We'll take the road team getting the points.
Pick: Illinois +1.5 (Illinois 23, Indiana 22)
Fallica: Indiana's offense was, well, offensive last year in Big Ten play, averaging 10.4 PPG. Is it better with Connor Bazelak and a new group of unproven WRs and RBs? I'm not sure it is. The Illinois defense had its way with one bad offense last week (Wyoming) and should do pretty well this week. Between the defense, running game and competent quarterback play from Tommy DeVito, I'll take the points and the road team.
Pick: Illinois +1.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5, 53.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Fallica: Feels like this will be a game where most tickets will be on the short road favorite, given that Purdue must replace co-defensive coordinator Brad Lambert and its best offensive player (David Bell) and defensive player (George Karlaftis) from a year ago. But Penn State is going to need some of these great recruiting classes to step up and produce. Purdue has home field, the better QB and a hunger to prove there's more depth to the program than the stars who have departed.
Pick: Purdue +3.5
UTEP Miners at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (-30.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: I can't wait to see Brent Venables run out on the field for the first time as a head coach. I can't wait to see Dillon Gabriel taking snaps with Jeff Lebby calling plays again, and I can't wait to see if UTEP can score 10 points. I think the Miners can. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 57 (Oklahoma 49, UTEP 10)
Pick: Over 57 (Oklahoma 49, UTEP 10)
Rice Owls at No. 14 USC Trojans (-32.5, 61.5)
Stanford Steve: I just have to.
Pick: Rice +32.5 (USC 69, Rice 37)
North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5, 56) at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Fallica: I'm probably on an island here, which is fine, but I'm not going to overreact to one game vs. Florida A&M that UNC was unsure it was even going to play. UNC does need to clean up some issues defensively, but the QB play showed promise, and I think the line's move toward Appalachian State will give the Tar Heels a bit of a chip on their shoulder that a Power 5 school usually doesn't have in a road game like this vs. an in-state Group of 5 team.
Pick: North Carolina -1.5
Bowling Green Falcons at UCLA Bruins (-23.5)
Fallica: If there's one guy who's sitting back, taking notes and just being quiet while the Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison, Travis Dye to USC offensive hype train runs wild, it's Chip Kelly. You don't think Chip would come out and put up 50 on a MAC team in the opener to make a little bit of a point? Nah, me neither. This line has moved about 10 points, so I have to bite at this number.
Pick: UCLA -23.5
Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 57) at Syracuse Orange
Stanford Steve: Not really a fan of giving points with a favorite, especially in Week 1, but I feel the need to do it here. Expectations are higher in Louisville, as they should be with what the Cardinals return. They were really bad on defense last year, so I only see them improving on that side of the ball. The offense should be pretty special for the Cardinals, led by QB Malik Cunningham, so they have the goods if they have to outscore the Orange.
Pick: Louisville -4.5 (Louisville 31, Syracuse 20)
Kent State Golden Flashes at Washington Huskies (-23, 59.5)
Fallica: The Jimmy Lake era at UW wasn't a good one. In comes Kalen DeBoer and his former QB at Indiana, Michael Penix Jr. After a season-plus of offensive debacles, expect DeBoer and his offense to make an impression against a MAC team the Huskies should be able to dominate up front. Pour one out for Kent State, which begins its athletic department-supporting triple of nonconference games vs. Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia.
Pick: Washington -23
Largest Spreads in Top 5 Matchups (since 1979)
| Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Alabama | Notre Dame | -18.5 | Won by 17 |
| 2018 | Alabama | Oklahoma | -15 | Won by 11 |
| 2018 | Alabama | LSU | -14 | Won by 29 |
| 2001 | Florida | Tennessee | -17.5 | Lost by 2 |
| 1996 | Nebraska | Colorado | -18 | Won by 5 |
| 1993 | Florida State | Nebraska | -16.5 | Won by 2 |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles (-7, 48)
Stanford Steve: Should be a lovely day in Chestnut Hill. Shadows falling over half the field. If you don't know where to sit there, the sun just blazes your eyes for three hours. But, in all seriousness, I'm excited to see what these two coaches' teams look like. They are both buttoned up, and I think both defenses will dictate both offenses, so it will be a tightly contested game. I'll take the points with the road team.
Pick: Rutgers +7 (Boston College 20, Rutgers 17)
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 1 college football picks, bets and nuggets (continued)
The Bear's money-line parlay
-118 to win $100Clemson Tigers -2100
Washington Huskies -1800
Mississippi State Bulldogs -600
Ohio State Buckeyes -800
Georgia Bulldogs -850
UCLA Bruins -3500
Maryland Terrapins -2400
Michigan Wolverines -8000
Ole Miss Rebels -1800
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Purdue Boilermakers +145Temple Owls +220
Illinois Fighting Illini +130
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +235
Bear bytes
Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue BoilermakersUnder Jeff Brohm, Purdue is 19-8 ATS with 12 outright wins. Narrow it down to the 12 instances as a home underdog and the Boilermakers covered eight of them. In its most recent game as a home 'dog, Purdue beat previously undefeated Michigan State 40-29 as a 2.5-point underdog last year.
Boise State Broncos at Oregon State Beavers
In its past 14 games vs. Pac-12 opponents, Boise State is 10-4 outright. The Broncos were an underdog in three of those wins.
No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
On paper, the Las Vegas oddsmakers don't expect a close game. Since 1979, there have been just six top-5 matchups with a spread of 14 points or more. However, blowouts have been rare. Only one favorite covered the spread, and in 2001, Tennessee upset Florida in Gainesville, shaking up the national title race.
Notre Dame big-game struggles away from home
| Time frame | Type of opponent | Average margin of loss |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 vs. Top 10 | 0-10 | 16.4 PPG |
| Last 11 vs Top 5 | 0-11 | 9.6 PPG |
| Last 18 vs. Top 5 | 1-17 |
Last 5 games vs. Power 5 Non-Conf Opponents
| Time frame | Record | Average margin of loss |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 vs. Top 10 | 0-10 | 16.4 PPG |
| Last 11 vs Top 5 | 0-11 | 9.6 PPG |
| Last 18 vs. Top 5 | 1-17 |
Utah State Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
Over 21 games from 2011 to 2019, Alabama went 5-15-1 ATS as a favorite of at least 35 points vs. nonconference opponents. However, things have changed in recent years. Alabama has covered each of its past four games in this situation, outscoring its opponent 237-27.
Utah Utes at Florida Gators
This is the first time Florida is a home underdog in a nonconference game against someone other than Florida State or Miami since 1982, when the Gators were a 2.5-point 'dog to No. 10 USC and pulled a 17-9 upset.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
Since 2019, Georgia has held its five Power 5 nonconference opponents to a total of 35 points, covering all five games. If you take out the two games vs. Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs won the three games vs. top-10 opponents by a 70-28 margin.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Appalachian State Mountaineers
The Mountaineers' past five games vs. Power 5 opponents have been decided by a combined 18 points. App State has won two of them.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers
Since going 7-0 ATS in the abbreviated 2020 regular season, the Hoosiers have failed to cover 11 of their past 12 games, and their only FBS win has come vs. Western Kentucky (by 2).
No. 23 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 19 Arkansas Razorbacks
Under Luke Fickell, the Bearcats are 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in the regular season vs. Power 5 opponents.
No. 4 Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Clemson covered each of its final five games last year as a favorite vs. Power 5 teams. Prior to that, Clemson had failed to cover seven straight games as a favorite, a streak that dated back to the 2020 CFP semifinal loss to Ohio State.
Arizona Wildcats at San Diego State Aztecs
Over the past six years, San Diego State is 7-2 vs. Pac-12 teams. Only one of those games saw the Aztecs as the favorite -- a 2015 SDSU win vs. Cal in which the Aztecs didn't cover.
Pac-12 in SEC country
In the past 20 years, there have been seven ranked Pac-12 teams who faced an SEC team on the road -- sorry, Oregon, this is a road game. Five of the seven won the game. Two of the three that faced a ranked SEC team won -- 2003 USC at Auburn and 2001 UCLA at Alabama. The 2006 Cal team lost at Tennessee.
New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last year the Gophers lost to Bowling Green as a 30.5-point favorite. They are a 36-point favorite Saturday vs. the Aggies.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Old Dominion Monarchs
In 2018, the Hokies lost at Old Dominion as a 29-point favorite. This year Tech is an 8-point favorite. The game pits former Penn State assistants Brent Pry (VT) and Ricky Rahne (ODU) against each other.
UTEP Miners at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
In last year's season opener, Oklahoma was a 31-point favorite over Tulane and won by just five (40-35). The previous time OU was a 30+ favorite vs. an FBS nonconference opponent was vs. Army in 2018 when the Sooners won 28-21. So the past two times OU was a 30+ point favorite vs. an FBS nonconference opponent, the Sooners won by five and seven points.
Florida State Seminoles at LSU Tigers
Brian Kelly has won 40 straight games as a head coach when his teams were favored. His last loss as a favorite came in 2017 vs. Stanford.
Thanks Buzz for posting these, much appreciated. Now if we can just get the beggars of this site. They should be thankful for what they’re getting!Recap
GoldSheet Week1.pdf
Marc Lawrence's Playbook September 1-5.pdf
Pointwise September 3.pdf
Powers' Picks September 1-5.pdf
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet September 8-12.pdf
