"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" have broken down bowl game after bowl game, and now we're down to the biggest one of them all.
Alabama and Georgia will square off once again, this time for the national championship. The guys break down the matchup as only they can and offer their picks for Monday night's game.
Records
Fallica: This game feels a little like the 2011 championship game where LSU won the regular-season meeting in Tuscaloosa, but you knew if they met again Alabama would win; or the Clemson-Notre Dame rematch last year after the Irish beat a shorthanded Tigers squad in South Bend. In the long run, maybe that loss in Atlanta was the best thing that could have happened to Georgia. The Bulldogs appeared to be a completely refocused, dialed-in squad in the Orange Bowl blowout of Michigan.
In Atlanta, the Tide had seven 20-yard completions, averaged 10 yards per dropback and Bryce Young's off-target percentage was 7%. In the semifinal vs. Cincinnati, the Tide had just two 20-yard completions, averaged less than six yards per dropback and saw Young's off-target percentage climb to 19%. Of course, the million dollar question is, was that because of game plan and the Tide knowing it could run at will, because of Cincinnati's secondary or because John Metchie III was/is out of the lineup? Jameson Williams' yards per reception was four yards less than his previous low vs. an FBS opponent this year.
I think in this game, Georgia will get back to playing more complementary football to assist its defense -- high-percentage passes to offset the run and build Stetson Bennett's confidence. I'd also look for the Bulldogs to show a little more presnap movement and motion to try to confuse Alabama's defense.
I thought this number would stay right at three and that if it dropped to 2.5, Georgia money would come pouring in. If it goes to 3.5, Alabama money will be plentiful and books would have that liability, in addition to underdog ML money, which we always see in title games like this. So you may even get a bit of a discount on a Georgia ML price here. We've also seen six of 11 CFP games with a spread less than seven points ultimately decided by 17 points or more. So if you're thinking alternate price at a nice plus number, that's not a bad idea.
Yes, Georgia has blown leads in each of the last four games vs. Alabama, with three being double-digit leads. But I've felt Georgia was the best team in the country all season and I think the Bulldogs will show it Monday night and finally slay their nemesis.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
Stanford Steve: The biggest question I had coming into all of the bowls was how would Georgia come out in the Orange Bowl after last seeing the Bulldogs get dismantled by Alabama in the SEC title game. Boy, did they impress, with Bennett going for 313 yards through the air with three TDs. The defense made Michigan look small, slow and not physical, which was just as impressive. Another question I had was what would Alabama do to replace star Metchie and what would it look like. For the most part, it was WR, Ja'Corey Brooks taking Metchie's place in those 10- and 11-personnel groups, and he caught four balls for 66 yards and a touchdown. But I also think Bama knew it had a big advantage on the line of scrimmage vs. the Cincinnati defensive line, and that's where they went, as they rushed for 301 yards, led by Brian Robinson and his 204. We can look at the matchups all we want. For me, I'm taking the QB and the head coach, and Bama has the advantage at both those positions. I'll take the points with Bama.
Pick: Alabama +2.5 (Alabama 28, Georgia 27)
Alabama and Georgia will square off once again, this time for the national championship. The guys break down the matchup as only they can and offer their picks for Monday night's game.
Records
- Stanford Steve (4-3-1 in bowls; 43-32-1 overall)
- The Bear (6-4-1 in bowls; 43-48-2 overall)
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 52)
8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)Fallica: This game feels a little like the 2011 championship game where LSU won the regular-season meeting in Tuscaloosa, but you knew if they met again Alabama would win; or the Clemson-Notre Dame rematch last year after the Irish beat a shorthanded Tigers squad in South Bend. In the long run, maybe that loss in Atlanta was the best thing that could have happened to Georgia. The Bulldogs appeared to be a completely refocused, dialed-in squad in the Orange Bowl blowout of Michigan.
In Atlanta, the Tide had seven 20-yard completions, averaged 10 yards per dropback and Bryce Young's off-target percentage was 7%. In the semifinal vs. Cincinnati, the Tide had just two 20-yard completions, averaged less than six yards per dropback and saw Young's off-target percentage climb to 19%. Of course, the million dollar question is, was that because of game plan and the Tide knowing it could run at will, because of Cincinnati's secondary or because John Metchie III was/is out of the lineup? Jameson Williams' yards per reception was four yards less than his previous low vs. an FBS opponent this year.
I think in this game, Georgia will get back to playing more complementary football to assist its defense -- high-percentage passes to offset the run and build Stetson Bennett's confidence. I'd also look for the Bulldogs to show a little more presnap movement and motion to try to confuse Alabama's defense.
I thought this number would stay right at three and that if it dropped to 2.5, Georgia money would come pouring in. If it goes to 3.5, Alabama money will be plentiful and books would have that liability, in addition to underdog ML money, which we always see in title games like this. So you may even get a bit of a discount on a Georgia ML price here. We've also seen six of 11 CFP games with a spread less than seven points ultimately decided by 17 points or more. So if you're thinking alternate price at a nice plus number, that's not a bad idea.
Yes, Georgia has blown leads in each of the last four games vs. Alabama, with three being double-digit leads. But I've felt Georgia was the best team in the country all season and I think the Bulldogs will show it Monday night and finally slay their nemesis.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
Stanford Steve: The biggest question I had coming into all of the bowls was how would Georgia come out in the Orange Bowl after last seeing the Bulldogs get dismantled by Alabama in the SEC title game. Boy, did they impress, with Bennett going for 313 yards through the air with three TDs. The defense made Michigan look small, slow and not physical, which was just as impressive. Another question I had was what would Alabama do to replace star Metchie and what would it look like. For the most part, it was WR, Ja'Corey Brooks taking Metchie's place in those 10- and 11-personnel groups, and he caught four balls for 66 yards and a touchdown. But I also think Bama knew it had a big advantage on the line of scrimmage vs. the Cincinnati defensive line, and that's where they went, as they rushed for 301 yards, led by Brian Robinson and his 204. We can look at the matchups all we want. For me, I'm taking the QB and the head coach, and Bama has the advantage at both those positions. I'll take the points with Bama.
Pick: Alabama +2.5 (Alabama 28, Georgia 27)
