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Let's go Brandon!
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Nov 6, 2012
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Let's go Brandon!
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
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Stanford Steve and The Bear: College football bowl picks, bets, nuggets


What's in store for this holiday season in college football?

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down the bowl season as only they can, offering their top bets, teasers to look at and betting nuggets for the games.

The guys are ready to continue their prognostications and will do so throughout the bowl season.

Records

  • Stanford Steve (2-2 last week; 39-29 overall)
  • The Bear (7-0 last week; 37-44-1 overall)
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

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PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 18)​

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UTEP Miners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-11.5, 51.5)​

Stanford Steve: One team is playing in their first bowl game since 2014 (UTEP) and the other is playing a game with an interim head coach (Lee Marks) and a quarterback (Jake Haener) who was going to transfer but is now staying at Fresno State. I do expect UTEP to be plenty motivated and possibly build an early lead before Fresno State figures things out and gets the offense going. The two best offenses UTEP faced (Boise and UTSA) combined for over 1,000 yards in those two games. I think Fresno State's offense is better than both of those. I don't want to have a side here, so we'll just take the over.

Pick: Over 51.5 (Fresno State 41, UTEP 20)

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Dec. 18)​

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Oregon State Beavers (-7, 67.5) vs. Utah State Aggies

(at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA)

Fallica:
The Aggies capped a magical season with an upset win over shorthanded San Diego State in the MWC title game. I have to wonder if this game is kind of an afterthought after the high of that win. Maybe it won't be, but I think the Oregon State offensive line and running game might be too much here and will keep the ball out of the Aggies' hands. After losing a rivalry game to end the regular season, winning a bowl game for the first time since 2013 and finishing with eight wins would be considered a successful season for the Beavers.

Pick: Oregon State -7

LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 18)​

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Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Liberty Flames (-9.5, 58.5)​

Stanford Steve: The Flames finished the year losing their final three games to three bowl teams: Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army. Now, the Eagles aren't in those teams' tier, but I think they are pretty capable of hanging around this game. What will Malik Willis and that Hugh Freeze offense look like? They turned the ball over 11 times in those final three losses. Not sure what the motivation will be playing in Mobile, Alabama after starting the year with so much promise. We'll play it safe and take the points, even though Eastern Michigan has only one bowl win in school history... but we don't need them to win the game. Just cover the number.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +9.5 (Liberty 28, Eastern Michigan 21)
Fallica: About the only thing the Eagles haven't been able to accomplish under Chris Creighton is winning a bowl game. In their three bowl games, EMU has lost by 4, 2 and 4 as 12.5, 3 and 5-point 'dogs. So three close losses as a short dog, a medium dog and a big dog. Liberty has slumped home to end the regular season -- granted it was against Ole Miss, UL Lafayette and Army -- but the offense didn't do much in those games. Willis threw 12 INT in the final eight games, so we'll see if the turnovers stop here. Now the EMU defense shouldn't be confused with any of those, as its 111th nationally in Adjusted Expected Points. But offensively the Eagles should more than hold their own -- EMU ranks 68th in offensive EPA; Liberty is 61st. At the very least I expect EMU to score enough points to be right in this.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +9.5

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl (Dec. 21)​

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San Diego State Aztecs vs. UTSA Roadrunners (-2.5, 49.5)​

Fallica: This one hurts as the Roadrunners have been one of "my teams" this season. But this will be by far the best defense UTSA has faced this year -- San Diego State is 19th in EPA. Middle Tennessee is the previous best at 32nd and UTSA managed only two offensive TD in that game. After an embarrassing loss in the conference title game with an extremely shorthanded roster, I expect the Aztecs to end the season on a positive note here.
Pick: San Diego State +2.5

Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)​

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Missouri Tigers vs. Army Black Knights (-3.5, 58)​

Stanford Steve: I'm not saying we're gonna see a repeat of the Wake Forest/Army game from earlier this season, where the Knights lost to the Demon Deacons 70-56, but I can see a back and forth game to an extent. Mizzou was last in the SEC in rush defense, and we know what Army loves to do. Mizzou has shown plenty of capability on the offensive side of the ball, with wins over Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt down the stretch to get bowl eligible. The expectation is a lot of kickoffs. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 58 (Army 35, Mizzou 31)

Underdogs to Play on ML​

Last Week: 3-0, +5.2 units
Season: 31-50, +6.5 units

San Diego State Aztecs +115
Eastern Michigan Eagles +290
 

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