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exploited17 · Oct 25, 2021

Betcha don't kniw
Power Plays best pick NCAAF 4.5*

Power Pick sbest play 3*

Only thing worth considering it seems

Thanks to Buzz and all those who have contributed to the section

Cody · Oct 29, 2021

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SteponaDuck · Oct 29, 2021

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.

Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-4. Season: 15-23)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-4. Season: 22-21)

Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

The Plays

North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5, 62.5)

Stanford Steve: It was said here last week -- the Irish still have a chance to have a very successful season with what lies ahead on their schedule. In comes one of the most disappointing teams in the country in North Carolina, and the Tar Heels have not been good on the road. They are 5-13 in their last 18 road games straight up. The Irish have covered four of their past five and I like the direction the offense is going; they are getting the run game going as RB Kyren Williams went for 138 yards and 2 TDs last week in the win over USC. We'll buy the half-point and get off the 3.5 number.

Pick: Notre Dame -3 (-$120) (Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 29)

Fallica: I went into the season with good intentions in picking a team that would beat Clemson for the ACC title. While I was right that Clemson was there for the taking, I landed on a team that's seemingly incapable of stopping anyone. So of course I'm chasing with UNC here! It's an opportunity for the Tar Heels to save a little face with a win over a highly ranked team and an offense that might not be able to completely expose it.

Pick: North Carolina +3.5

No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18.5, 60)

Stanford Steve: Sometimes you know you're wrong as soon as you make a decision. This is one of those times. I'll take the road team plus the points.

Pick: Penn State +18.5 (Ohio State 38, Penn State 21)

Kansas Jayhawks at No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-30.5, 54.5)

EDITOR'S PICKS

Week 9 CFB best bets: Michigan's defense too much for Michigan State?
2dCollege Football Betting Insiders
CFB trends to monitor and how they might impact betting lines
2dBill Connelly

Stanford Steve: You look at the situation of the Cowboys, being so close last week in Ames and coming up short. They still have plenty to play for, but are they gonna get up to play the Jayhawks? From what I saw last week from Kansas, I loved the belief and fight that head coach Lance Leipold has instilled in this team in such a short time. I think the Jayhawks have enough to hang around inside of the 30.5 points.

Pick: Kansas +30.5 (Oklahoma State 31, Kansas 13)

Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs (-1, 44.5)

Stanford Steve: Both teams come into this game off big wins in big conference games. I like the matchup for the Bulldogs and how that offense (averaging 341 in the air and just under 140 on the ground) matches up with the great defense of the Aztecs. I think the Aztecs' lack of offense catches up with them this week. The Aztecs burned me last week, as they played great at Air Force, so I might be stubborn going against them again this week. But we are. We'll take the road team.

Pick: Fresno State +1 (Fresno State 24, San Diego State 19)

SteponaDuck · Oct 29, 2021

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-14, 51) at Florida Gators

Fallica: The Gators' defense has a lot to answer to after that abomination in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. Now they face a better run game and a better offensive line. They may not get too many stops against the Bulldogs, but I do think the potential is there for the Gators to reach 17 and for Georgia to get a non-offensive score, and that should be enough to put this one over the total.

Pick: Over 51

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (-9.5, 47)

Stanford Steve: I don't have much to say here. It's the last stand with Clemson. Clemson hasn't scored over 20 vs. any Power 5 team in regulation this year. I think that ends this week and they take care of business. Lay the points.

Pick: Clemson -9.5 (Clemson 27, Florida State 13)

No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (-1.5, 47) at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sports Betting

NFL: MVP, Super Bowl futures watch
NFL: Notable bets: Public on hot streak

CFB: Best bets for this weekend's games
CFB: Stanford Steve & The Bear's picks
CFB: Stock up/down: Impact on lines
NBA: Nets favored; bettors back Lakers
NBA: Best bets for the 2021-22 season
MLB: World Series betting guide
NHL: Best future bets for the season

ESPN Chalk home

Fallica: Kentucky has four one-score wins this year, which means it very easily could be, say, 4-3 as opposed to 6-2. The Bulldogs are 2-2 in close games, so their record could be a game better. I'm a fan of going against line moves across zero as well. Will Rogers looked like his shoulder was fine last week. We're gonna cash that UK over ticket, but given its struggles offensively vs. Florida, South Carolina and Chattanooga, I can see the Cats coming up on the short end of the stick here.

Pick: Mississippi State +1.5

No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 48) at West Virginia Mountaineers

Fallica: Iowa State's defense played really well, especially in the second half of last week's win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State. Now they are laying the same number at a West Virginia side which has struggled running the ball much of the year and might be a little overvalued off a win at a beaten-up TCU last week.

Pick: Iowa State -7

Boise State Broncos (-2.5, 51.5) at Colorado State Rams

Fallica: The Rams may have butchered the end-of-game situation last week, but they also went to Iowa, played the Hawkeyes tough and are determined to run the ball -- something Boise has had problems with this year. This is a 3-4 Boise team, not one close to the great Boise teams of 10-15 years ago.

Pick: Colorado State +2.5

Purdue Boilermakers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5, 52)

Fallica: I deserve whatever I get here. And I'm at peace with that.

Pick: Nebraska -7.5

SteponaDuck · Oct 29, 2021

The Bear's money-line parlay

Last Week: -100
Season: -609
$100 returns $230

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1000
Buffalo Bulls -550
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -800
Arizona State Sun Devils -700
Oregon Ducks -4000
Oklahoma Sooners -1200
Ohio State Buckeyes -1000
Georgia Bulldogs -600
Iowa State Cyclones -260

The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line

Last Week: 2-5, -2.3 units
Season: 21-30, +10.15 units

Iowa Hawkeyes +140
Virginia Cavaliers +115
Mississippi State Bulldogs +105
Texas Longhorns +135
Colorado State Rams +115
North Carolina Tar Heels +155

Bear bytes

NFL & CFB Best Bets

NFL: Best Eliminator picks for Week 8
NFL: Notable bets: Public on hot streak
NFL: Futures look: Cards in Super Bowl?

CFB: Best bets for this weekend's games
CFB: Stanford Steve & The Bear's picks
CFB: Current trends and impact on lines
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Chalk home | NFL home | CFB home

Since 2019, there have been 10 regular-season meetings of top-8 teams. In all 10, the winner of the game covered the spread. Four underdogs won outright and six favorites covered the number.

Stanford Steve asked the question on the pod and we're here to deliver. The last time the AP No. 1 had a loss entering the first week of games in November was 1990, when 7-1 Notre Dame was No. 1. The last time a team currently not considered a Power 5 team was No. 1 was BYU in the final poll of the 1984 season, when the Cougars were voted national champions.

Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six Mountain West games and has lost three of four outright.

North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame has won each of its past 35 games as a favorite. Its last outright loss as a favorite came in 2017 vs. Stanford. This is the sixth time in that stretch the Irish were favored by fewer than seven points -- they won the previous games by 14, 24, 22, 21 and 29 points.

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators

This is the first time Georgia has been favored by 14 points or more over Florida. The most Georgia has been favored over Florida was 13 in 2017, when the Bulldogs won 42-7. The largest upset in the series came in 1997, when the Gators were a 20.5-point favorite and were beaten 37-17 by Jim Donnan's Bulldogs.

No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats at Tulane Green Wave

The Green Wave were a 31-point underdog at Oklahoma earlier this year in a 40-35 loss. The Bearcats are 24.5-point favorites this week.

No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes

Under James Franklin, Penn State is 0-7 in true road games vs. top-10 opponents (2-5 ATS). Penn State has been an underdog in all seven games.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers

In the last two years, Clemson was favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points over FSU, winning the two games by 31 and 49. The Tigers are a 9.5-point favorite over FSU on Saturday.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners

In its last seven games vs. FBS opponents as a favorite of at least 19 points, OU is 5-2 SU and 1-6 ATS. Since the start of 2019, the only other team to lose twice as a favorite of at least a 19 points is Penn State.

No. 6 Michigan Wolverines at No. 8 Michigan State Spartans

Despite being favored in all six meetings with Michigan State under Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines are just 3-3 outright. All three losses have been by four points or fewer, while the three wins have been by 34, 14 and 9.

Michigan State has failed to cover any of its last seven games vs. top-10 opponents.

Boston College Eagles at Syracuse Orange

This snaps Syracuse's 21-game streak vs. FBS teams in which the Orange were an underdog. The last time Syracuse was a favorite vs. an FBS team came in 2019, when the Orange lost 58-27 to Boston College as a 3-point favorite.

No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

The last three times Iowa has been an underdog, the Hawkeyes have won the game outright by double digits.

Another week, another unranked team is a favorite over a ranked team -- a position the Badgers found themselves in last week when they beat Purdue. This is the 12th time an unranked team has been favored over a ranked team this year. There hasn't been any pattern, as they are 6-5 outright and 5-6 ATS.

However, the Hawkeyes are also the third AP top-10 team this year to be an underdog vs. an unranked team. Last week, Oregon beat UCLA and Oklahoma State covered in this scenario. And going back to 2004 (15 games), top-10 underdogs vs. an unranked team are 12-3 ATS (9-1 in last 10.)

No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers

The Cyclones have won and covered each of the past three vs. WVU, winning by a combined score of 110-34. Iowa State was favored by 6 and 9.5 and a 4.5-point dog in the three games.