Newsletters

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

 

[Knightrofins]

Do we have updated records from the newsletters as of week 12? At least the good ones?

thx

 

[danstiller]

Gridiron gold sheet
college football 36-25-2 59%
nfl football 26-17-1 60%

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

 

[BuzzKill]

Power Plays (includes last week's issue)
NCAA 4.5* (14-8) Ohio State, Northwestern, Oregon
NCAA 4* (20-22-1) Wyoming, Auburn, Baylor, Kentucky
NFL 4* (7-4) Minnesota

 

[BuzzKill]

Year to Date Newsletter Tracking Through November 18, 2019

Grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter. The record is based on newsletters we have gotten.

Confidential Kick-Off
11* (5-6)
10* (24-25)
o/u (10-11)

Gridiron Gold Sheet (partial record)
NCAA Best Bets (29-26-2)
NFL Best Bets (12-8-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (5-6-1)
4* (3-9)
3* (7-4-1)
Upset pick (7-5)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-10-1)
Awesome Angle (5-6-1)
Incredible Stat (5-6)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (6-4-1)
4* (2-8-1)
3* (4-7)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (10-12)
2* (4-8)
3* (4-8)
4* (12-12)
5* (17-7)

Pointwise NFL
3* (7-4)
4* (13-9)
5* (12-9-1)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (7-4)
3* (11-13)
2* (15-9)
Underdog Play of the Week (5-7)
Tech Play of the Week (5-6)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-6)
Situational Play of the Week (4-3)
Series Play of the Week (6-2)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (7-4)
3* (5-6)
2* (7-4)
NFL System play (6-6)
4* Pro Angle (6-5)
3* o/u play (6-5)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (8-10-1)
2* (19-19-1)
1* (0-0)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (5-6)
2* (14-7-1)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (24-18)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (12-10)

Red Sheet (5-1 overall this week)
90* (1-0)
89* (9-13)
88* (29-18-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (5-7)
NCAA 3* (7-5)
NFL 4* (4-7)
NFL 3* (6-4-1)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (3-1)
MTI 4.5* (5-2-1)
MTI 4* (6-4)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-3-1)
SBB 4* (10-8)
Cajun NCAA (10-3)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (5-6)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (7-6)
2* (13-8)
Team Total of the Week (9-2)

Power Plays (includes last week's issue and the previous week's issue)
NCAA 4.5* (14-8)
NCAA 4* (20-22-1)
NFL 4* (7-4)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (21-24-3)
NFL Key Releases (20-13)

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters:
Winning Points
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Winning Points
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's November 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[theSleeper]

Anyone have an opinion on the VSIN All Access Package? Specifically this- *'Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights from the day's programs.'
I am wondering if the newsletter includes Mike Palm picks, as well as others, with time to spare before game starts. Thanks https://www.vsin.com/subscribe/

 

[rxpert]

Vsin

Anyone have an opinion on the VSIN All Access Package? Specifically this- *'Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights from the day's programs.'
I am wondering if the newsletter includes Mike Palm picks, as well as others, with time to spare before game starts. Thanks https://www.vsin.com/subscribe/

emailed about 5:15pm EST today

[h=2]In Case You Missed It on VSiN[/h][h=3]Here is your subscriber-only email summarizing the plays from guests and hosts from earlier shows.[/h][h=3]The Edge[/h]

• Howard Bender NO PLAYS
• Dave Cokin Syracuse +10 v Louisville CFB
• Dave Cokin TCU +19 v Oklahoma CFB
• Dave Cokin Utah -23 v Arizona CFB
• Dave Cokin Colorado St +6.5 v Wyoming CFB
• Adam Hill Bengals +6.5 v Steelers NFL
• Adam Hill Packers +3 v 49ers NFL
• Jonathan Von Tobel Jets (+3) v Raiders NFL
• Jonathan Von Tobel Wizards (+2.5) v Spurs NBA

[h=3]Follow The Money[/h]

• Pat Forde Penn State +18 @ Ohio State CFB
• Pat Forde Texas +5.5 @ Baylor CFB
• Pauly (in pocket) Arizona State +16 vs Oregon CFB
• Pauly (in pocket) Arizona +22 vs Utah CFB
• Pauly (in pocket) Steelers/Bengals UNDER 39.5 NFL
• Mitch (in pocket) Toledo/Buffalo OVER 54 CFB
• Bruce Marshall Nevada +14 @ Fresno State CFB
• Bruce Marshall Tennessee +4 @ Missouri CFB
• Bruce Marshall Wake Forest -7 vs Duke CFB

[h=3]A Numbers Game[/h]

• Todd Wishnev Steelers vs Bengals Under 39 NFL
• Mike Palm Steelers vs Bengals Under 39 NFL
• Mike Palm Taking -3.5 with the Lions vs Redskins NFL
• Todd Wishnev Rams covering -3 vs Ravens NFL
• Adam McClintock Taking Cinncinati +10 vs Temple CFB
• Adam McClintock Nebraska -5 vs Maryland CFB

[h=3]Betting Across America[/h]Greg Peterson
Chattanooga +20 @ Florida StCornell +20.5 @ Syracuse
Little Rock @ Memphis Over 144
Arkansas St @ Colorado St Over 138
Bryant @ Drexel -4
[h=3]My Guys in the Desert[/h]Mike Palm Playbook
Group 1:
N/A
Group 2:
Washington Caps P/L +135

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Playbook Midweek Alert
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's November 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Playbook Midweek Alert
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's November 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[SportsBookData]

Killer Sports? Thank you!

 

[rxpert]

Mike palm

Anyone have an opinion on the VSIN All Access Package? Specifically this- *'Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights from the day's programs.'
I am wondering if the newsletter includes Mike Palm picks, as well as others, with time to spare before game starts. Thanks https://www.vsin.com/subscribe/

palm’s picks are on Twitter also

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
Playbook Midweek Alert
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbookhttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZYpfmjjKX2xaUuq51qzOb9OifEPJD9tw/view?usp=sharing
Playbook Wise Guys Contest

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's November 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[BuzzKill]

Killer Sports? Thank you!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1H3GFIL1wJp9Zl99y2iWrPhPBGR8UAen2/viewKiller Sports

 

[BuzzKill]

marc lawrence news letter

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
Killer Sports
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oCv5K2-uteyaMKmR0ETvrUdccROnyvkN/viewGold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Sports Reporter
Gaming Today
Power Plays
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
[URL="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hn027X8DBt0vZEFaS6-FY_FXyplQow-A/view"]Playbook Midweek Alert
[/URL]Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet

Records:
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's November 20 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 13 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]What's in store for this week in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 13 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 13 picks.

---

[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (4-2 last week, 33-27-2 overall)[/h][h=3]The Bear (2-2 last week, 29-25-1 overall)[/h]

---

Air Force Falcons (-22, 55.5) at New Mexico Lobos
Stanford Steve: The Lobos have been decimated by injuries this season. They most recently lost running backs Bryson Carroll and Ahmari Davis and are down to 57 scholarship players after enduring 14 season-ending injuries. They don't have enough scout-team running backs to help prep for the vaunted Air Force rush attack. New Mexico started the season 2-1 and has since lost seven in a row. It seems like the Lobos don't have enough to keep it close.
Pick: Air Force -22; Air Force 45, New Mexico 15

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-5, 62.5) at Maryland Terrapins
Stanford Steve: The Huskers come in losers of four in a row, but they have been competitive since they got quarterback Adrian Martinez back under center. Last week, Martinez and running back Dedrick Mills combined to rush for 277 yards against a very good Wisconsin defense. I also think it's important to point out that Nebraska still has a bowl berth to play for, as the Huskers sit at 4-6 with two games left. Maryland, on the other hand, has been eliminated from postseason play, and therefore, I think the Terps might not be putting their best effort forward. I'll take the road team on the money line and not have to give any points.
Pick: Nebraska ML -180; Nebraska 38, Maryland 34

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-4, 41.5)
Stanford Steve: This game basically depends on who has the better backups because both teams have suffered many, many injuries. The Bears come in losers of five of their past six after a 4-0 start, and Stanford comes in needing wins against Cal and against Notre Dame next week to qualify for a bowl game. Both teams will be starting backup quarterbacks, and the defenses should dominate the game, as the offenses also lack skill talent on both sidelines. Many will say the under is the play in the game, and it's hard to argue with that. But I will say the underdog keeps it close enough, due to motivation to avoid losing 10 in a row in the Big Game. I'll take the points.
Pick: Cal +4; Stanford 21, Cal 20

Colorado State Rams at Wyoming Cowboys (-6.5, 50.5)
The Bear: CSU has played pretty well the second half of the season and certainly deserved a better fate last week vs. Air Force. Wyoming's defense -- especially at home -- will probably give the Rams' offense some problems, but the Cowboys' lack of a passing game should allow CSU to hang around. Six of Wyoming's 10 games this season have been one-possession games, and that's all we're looking for here.
Pick: Colorado State +6.5

Michigan Wolverines (-9.5, 52.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
The Bear: The Hoosiers play hard, and one of these days, it's going to result in an upset win over a ranked opponent. I wish I had more info on the status of Whop Philyor, as his absence would hurt the Indiana offense, but getting close to double digits here is enough for me, as Michigan has had a run under Jim Harbaugh of not covering the week before playing Ohio State. I expect the Hoosiers to make things much tougher on the Wolverines than Michigan State did in the second half.
Pick: Indiana +9.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4, 51.5)
The Bear: USM has been blowing people out in Hattiesburg this season and, thanks to suspensions at Louisiana Tech, has a shot to play for the conference title. The Hilltoppers have been a pleasant surprise this season and probably played their best game of the season last week in the win at Arkansas. But in their final home game, with a healthy backfield and playing their best ball of the season, I'll go with USM.
Pick: Southern Miss -4

UCF Knights (-6, 70) at Tulane Green Wave
The Bear: Tulane was sloppy last week in a loss at Temple, but this offense could give the UCF defense fits. The Knights have been burning money at the windows most of the season, and I expect that run to continue here against a team hungry to make amends for a poor effort last week.
Pick: Tulane +6

Ball State Cardinals (-3.5, 67.5) at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Bear: We saw Buffalo bounce back Wednesday after giving the game away to Kent State. How will the Golden Flashes handle getting a win they probably shouldn't have had? On the other side, Ball State blew a huge lead to Central Michigan, so I would expect the Cardinals to come out with a strong effort.
Pick: Ball State -3.5

---

[h=3]Stanford Steve's worst Thursday game of the year, and you want to bet it because you know you'll be watching[/h]

NC State Wolfpack at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2, 49)
Take the home team on the money line. NC State has been decimated by injuries, and the Wramblin' Wreck still has a chance to make its season with a win here and an opportunity to ruin No. 4 Georgia's season next week.
Pick: Georgia Tech ML -140; Georgia Tech 17, NC State 16

---

[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $41.
Virginia -900
Wisconsin -4000
Utah -2500
Notre Dame -1600
Ohio State -1200
Air Force -2500

---

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML[/h]Colorado State +210
Texas A&M +420
West Virginia +200
Oregon State +310
Tulane +190

---

[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]

Georgia Southern Eagles (-1, 55) at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Both these teams have plenty to play for, and both have been playing well lately. Therefore, I will sit back and watch and enjoy this one.
[h=3]The Bear[/h]

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-9, 62)
Where did that come from last week, Syracuse? It probably can't be replicated this week against Louisville. But now that UL is bowl-eligible and has Kentucky next week, is this a flat spot?

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-4, 45.5)
Missouri's defense played well enough for the Tigers to win last week, but the offense again struggled. Now the Tigers get surging Tennessee and are 4-point favorites. It sure looks like the Vols might have square 'dog written all over them.

---

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Zoned out
Each of Oregon's past four trips to the state of Arizona to take on the Sun Devils and Wildcats have been eventful. The Ducks have lost three of the four games, including all three in which they were favored. Oregon's lone win in the stretch was a controversial 61-55 OT win at ASU in 2015 that they needed to rally from a double-digit second-half deficit.
Oregon's past four Pac-12 games in Arizona:
2018: Arizona -8, lost by 29
2017: Arizona State -15, lost by 2
2015: Arizona State +2, won by 6 (OT)
2013: Arizona -20, lost by 26
Sun Devils a live 'dog?
As an underdog under Herm Edwards, Arizona State is 8-5 ATS, with six outright wins. In three games as a double-digit 'dog, ASU is 2-1 ATS, with one outright win. In those three games, ASU allowed a total of 55 points.
Dating to 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit underdog 11 times. The Sun Devils have won six of those games outright and are 9-2 ATS.
Huge spread in top-10 matchup
Penn State is currently an 18-point underdog to Ohio State. In the past 40 years, only seven top-10 matchups have seen a point spread this big. All seven favorites won, and they went 5-2 ATS.
Largest point spreads in top-10 matchups (past 40 years):
2016: Alabama (-18) vs. Texas A&M, won by 19
2013: Florida State (-21.5) vs. Miami, won by 27
2000: Florida State (-19.5) vs. Clemson, won by 47
1999: Florida State (-18) vs. Georgia Tech, won by 6
1996: Nebraska (-18) vs. Colorado, won by 5
1995: Nebraska (-25) vs. Kansas, won by 38
1995: Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Kansas State, won by 24
Buckeyes, Wolverines caught looking ahead?
Michigan and Ohio State have not fared well ATS the week prior to playing each other. Michigan hasn't covered any of the past three years, including two non-covers as a favorite vs. Indiana. The Buckeyes haven't covered any of the past six, despite being two-TD favorites in all six.
Michigan the week prior to Ohio State (past three years):
2018: vs. Indiana +28, won by 11
2017: at Wisconsin -7, lost by 14
2016: vs. Indiana +25, won by 10
Ohio State the week prior to Michigan (past six years):
2018: at Maryland +14, won by 1
2017: vs. Illinois +41.5, won by 38
2016: at Michigan State +21, won by 1
2015: vs. Michigan State +14, lost by 3
2014: vs. Indiana +35.5, won by 15
2013: vs. Indiana +34.5, won by 28
Who wants to lay 40-plus on the road with BYU?
BYU is currently a 41-point favorite at UMass. It's the second straight week in which a road team is a 40-point favorite; Ohio State was -52 at Rutgers. Prior to that, one has to go back to 2015 to find the most recent 40-point road favorite: Baylor -45 at Kansas.
Irish far from a cinch vs. BC?
This marks the fifth straight meeting in which Notre Dame is at least a 14-point favorite over Boston College. The Irish have covered only one of the four; they won two of the games by two and three points.
Struggling Spartans
Since the start of last season, Michigan State has been a favorite of at least 14 points eight times. MSU is 1-7 ATS in those eight games, including outright losses to Arizona State and Illinois this year as 15.5-point favorites.
Indiana, we're all for you ...
In its past six games vs. ranked opponents, Indiana is 5-1 ATS. Indiana was 2-7-1 ATS in its previous 10 games vs. ranked teams. The Hoosiers have dropped 17 straight straight-up vs. ranked opponents and are 2-41 in their past 43 games vs. ranked opponents.
Big game, small number
In the past 40 years, there have been 10 meetings between Cal and Stanford in which the line was three points or fewer. The Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in those eight games and won seven of the 10 outright (7-2-1). Both times under David Shaw that the Cardinal were favored by a field goal or less over Cal, the Cardinal won by double digits.
UCF burning money at the windows
UCF has dropped six of seven ATS, with three of those losses coming outright as a favorite.

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Best bets for Week 13 college football games[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the 13th full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly record: 25-12-2 (3-1 last week)
Steele record: 29-34 (5-0 last week)
Johnson record: 33-23-1 (2-0 last week)
Kezirian record: 41-32-1 (4-3 last week)
Note: Lines displayed are Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.

[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]

[h=3]No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18)[/h]Kezirian: I'm not concerned about laying this kind of lumber against a top-10 team (not a big rankings guy). This is about Ohio State being historically dominant and Penn State being a bit of a mirage. I'm surprised the Nittany Lions rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but this is a straight play from the eye test. I think the Buckeyes will successfully throw deep, just as we saw Minnesota do against Penn State. With the return of Chase Young, I trust the defense can keep the Nittany Lions in check here. I expect a rout.
Pick: Ohio State -18

[h=3]No. 7 Utah Utes (-23) at Arizona Wildcats[/h]Kezirian: Oregon is getting all the hype as a potential CFP participant, but Utah is also in the mix -- and I think the Utes are better. They have a smothering defense, and the offense is better than people realize. QB Tyler Huntley has battled some injuries, but he is reliable and has thrown only one interception all season. The Utes just dominated UCLA 49-3, and I think we are in store for a similar outcome Saturday. Arizona is lifeless right now and likely playing for only next week's rivalry game against Arizona State. The Wildcats mustered just two field goals last week in a blowout loss at Oregon, and I expect similar ineptitude against Utah. The Utes have covered six straight games, including two with a 21-point spread. I trust them to handle their business against such a finesse team as Zona.
Pick: Utah -22.5

[h=3]No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (-13.5) at Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Connelly: Let's lean on SP+ for some quick math. Since conference play began for the Gophers -- we're ignoring their early nonconference performances because they are clearly a different team now -- they have played the teams ranked 51st (Illinois), 55th (Nebraska), 61st (Purdue) and 80th (Maryland) in SP+. They won those games by an average of 24.8 points.
Northwestern is 84th. The Wildcats averaged 6.3 yards per play against UMass last week, which sounds fine until you realize it was the second-lowest average UMass' wretched defense has allowed this season (ahead of only Akron). Northwestern needed a special-teams score to get to 45 points, the third-lowest total UMass has allowed. This is still a miserable offense, and Minnesota probably won't need to top 24 or 27 points to cover a two-score spread. Even counting the Gophers' sketchy early games, SP+ sees this as a three-touchdown Minnesota win.
Pick: Minnesota -13.5

[h=3]No. 18 Memphis Tigers (-15) at South Florida Bulls[/h]Connelly: SP+ has been in love with Memphis this season, picking the Tigers to cover in all but one game and going a solid 6-2-1 ATS in Memphis games overall. I've included them multiple times in this column, and I'm going to keep doing so here.
USF nearly upset Cincinnati last week -- should have, actually -- but my first inclination is to think that had more to do with the suddenly slumping Bearcats (who nearly lost to ECU in their previous game) than the Bulls. They've got a rock-solid defense, but only one team in the past nine games has held Memphis under 35 points. Meanwhile, the Bulls have averaged 9.6 points per game in five games against SP+ top-50 opponents. I smell blowout, and SP+ says Tigers by 22.9.
Pick: Memphis -14.5

[h=3]No. 6 Oregon Ducks (-14.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils[/h]Connelly: This a huge test for Oregon. The Ducks were, per SP+, lucky to beat both Washington and Washington State back in October and remain ranked in the teens, but they certainly seem to have picked up the pace of late. They outscored USC and Arizona by a combined 90-30. Meanwhile, ASU has lost four games in a row (including one to USC).
Why do I feel good about Arizona State in this one?
1. ASU QB Jayden Daniels has looked fantastic in three of his past four games. Utah destroyed him, as tends to happen, but against Wazzu, USC and Oregon State, he completed 69% of his passes with nine TDs and no INTs. The Sun Devils averaged 35 PPG in those three contests.
2. Oregon's defense has been trending downward. After peaking briefly at No. 1 in defensive SP+, the Ducks allowed 30 PPG to Washington, Wazzu and USC before rebounding last week against Arizona. ASU's defense has been trending downward, too, but if the Sun Devils can get to 28-31 points, covering +14.5 starts to look pretty good.
3. SP+ says Oregon by about 10. Granted, it's only .500 ATS on Oregon and ASU games, but I like that 4.5-point cushion.
Pick: ASU +14.5

[h=3]UCLA Bruins at No. 23 USC Trojans (-14, 66)[/h]Connelly: Once again, I'm listening to SP+ here. It's hard for me to trust the Trojans, if only because they're extremely young and occasionally flaky, but the metric loved USC's chances of whomping Cal last week, so I made it a best bet and won. It's telling me the line should be more like USC -17.5 here, so I'm listening to that as well. (Plus, only one of UCLA's losses to power conference teams this season has been even slightly close. The Bruins either win or get blown out.)
Pick: USC -13.5
Kezirian: I'm focusing on the total, and I don't expect many punts. UCLA's defense has posted decent numbers against shaky offenses but has been lit up by explosive offenses. Those all ranked among the top 25 in offensive efficiency, and so does USC's offense (18th). The Trojans should score at will, given their premier talent at wide receiver, but I don't like them necessarily to cover because I don't trust their defense, especially with some key injuries. UCLA will play hard, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make enough plays.
Pick: Over 65.5 and USC team total over 39.5 (FanDuel)

[h=3]Texas Longhorns at No. 14 Baylor Bears (-5)[/h]Steele: Texas lost at Iowa State last week 23-21 on a field goal on the final play of the game. The Longhorns' defense has been getting a little healthier and has held the previous three opponents to 36 yards per game below their season average. Baylor led Oklahoma 28-3 last week but let it slip away at the end in a tough, all-out effort that ended in a home loss. The past three times Baylor has been favored, it needed overtime to get past Texas Tech and TCU and beat West Virginia by only three. Tom Herman is an outstanding 16-3 ATS as an underdog during his head-coaching career, including 11 outright upsets.
ATS pick: Texas +5.5

[h=3]Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-4)[/h]Steele: Missouri had been two different teams this season, as the Tigers are 5-1 at home and 0-4 on the road. The past four weeks, Missouri is 0-4, losing by an average score of 25-7 with an offense that has produced just 259 yards per game. Tennessee has won three in a row and needs only one more win to wrap up a bowl bid. The Volunteers' defense has held its past four foes to 85 yards per game below their season average. My average game grades have Tennessee playing at a 99.6 level the past four weeks, with Missouri at an 85.4 grade in that span. Factor in the home field, and that would have Tennessee by 10.2, yet the Volunteers are catching four points.
ATS pick: Tennessee +4

[h=3]Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-9)[/h]Steele: A few weeks ago, I picked Boston College (+3) over Syracuse, and BC destroyed the Orange 58-27, dropping Syracuse to 3-6. That ugly loss was the fifth straight loss against the spread for Syracuse, and it figured to get extra line value the rest of the season. But Dino Babers is a master motivator, upsetting Clemson in 2017 and nearly doing so again the following year. He had a bye to convince his team that it could win the last three games and get to a bowl. Last week showed that the team bought in, as the Orange beat Duke on the road 49-6. One of their top defensive players, defensive tackle McKinley Williams had been out all season but returned in that game and was disruptive.
Louisville was generally picked last in its division and last week was outgained by NC State 377-326 but took advantage of a Wolfpack team missing its top five defensive backs and won 34-20. That clinched a bowl bid for the Cardinals and sparked a celebration, and on deck, they have their in-state rival Kentucky. Three of the Cardinals' ACC wins have been by two, three and seven points, and they are laying nearly double digits here.
ATS pick: Syracuse +9.5

[h=3]Boston College Eagles at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-19)[/h]Steele: Boston College is fresh off a bye, and Notre Dame is playing for a fifth straight week. The Irish are just 1-5 ATS their past six home finales. Boston College has an explosive offense with an underrated offensive line opening holes for 282 rush yards per game and allowing just five sacks all season. Teams load the box to stop the run, but the Eagles are passing for 202 yards per game. Notre Dame has faced seven Power 5 teams this season and is plus-15 yards per game in those. Steve Addazio is 13-3-1 ATS as an away underdog the past six season, and I will side with the Eagles as nearly three-touchdown underdogs.
ATS pick: Boston College +19

[h=3]Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3)[/h]Steele: Houston has been giving reasonable effort versus some solid teams in recent weeks but appeared to run out of gas in the second quarter versus Memphis last week. The Cougars were outgained 531-256 to fall to 3-7. Houston has a banged-up offensive line and has numerous players redshirting for next season. Tulsa is also 3-7 but could have a much better record. In its most recent game, Tulsa upset a strong UCF team at home 34-31. The Hurricane defense is holding foes to 44 yards per game below their season average, and Tulsa is fresh off a bye.
ATS pick: Tulsa -3

[h=3]UCF Knights (-6) at Tulane Green Wave[/h]Kezirian: Professional bettor Paul Stone brought this game to my attention. The situation is ideal for Tulane, which has covered all five home games this season. It's also a fade on UCF, which is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games. The Knights are already bowl-eligible, and this game means nothing for them. I'll grab the points with the home 'dog.
Pick: Tulane +6

[h=3]BYU Cougars (-40) at UMass Minutemen[/h]Kezirian: The horrible, one-win season for UMass comes to a merciful end Saturday. It has been a pitiful season, which is understandably taking its toll on the players. At the end of last week's 39-point loss to Northwestern, the Minutemen had an opportunity to find the end zone for the first time all game. Coach Walt Bell neglected to call timeouts, the players didn't increase their tempo, and they walked off the field with possession inside the 10-yard line. The beatdowns seem to have broken their spirits, and next they face a BYU team full of grown men. It should get ugly at McGuirk Stadium in the regular-season finale.
Pick: BYU -40

[h=3]SMU Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 66)[/h]Johnson: I remain astonished by the market love Navy -- a team whose best win is a three-point home victory over Tulane -- got last week against the Irish. A few sportsbooks reached +6.5 for a period of time on game day. I didn't get the Navy love, and we saw Notre Dame absolutely expose the pass defense to the tune of 13.9 yards per pass attempt and 52 points (the Irish went into prevent offense for the entirety of the fourth quarter, too). On the season, SMU ranks top 20 in passing efficiency behind Shane Buechele (which grades better than the Irish on the season). Navy will struggle on the defensive side of the ball again, and the Mustangs have had two weeks to prepare for the Midshipmen option attack.
If SMU is unable to slow Navy's run game, then the scoring will be back and forth, and that lends to a bet on the over (think SMU-Memphis or ECU-SMU in their past two contests). The Mustangs can still cover 3.5 points either way in this instance, and I project taking the points and betting the over will go 2-0 more often than 0-2. My projections for the game are Navy -1.2 with a total of 70.0, and I'll be betting both.
Pick: SMU +3.5 and over 66