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Let's go Brandon!
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The current leader in the Playbook Wise Guys Contest is JH-Sportsline:

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Wiseguys contest …Week 11 COLEGE PICKS



Top 9 :WK11 , SN: 47-39 ..

Picks: Kan st, duke, mich st, tcu, w va, tex tech, ga southern, Utah st, wash st
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Next 7 WK11 Picks: , 22-20 on SN …

Picks: Ky, ga state, LSU, Louisville, Minn, Purdue, UTEP
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[SUB][SUP]<strike></strike>[/SUP][/SUB]
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Fade 3:WK10 Picks: , SN: 12-17 …

Picks (Fade these) : Hawaii, San Jose st, (haw/sjs cancel out), La tech, Wis, BC, Cal

GL & thx again Buzz
 
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Wiseguys contest …Week 10 NFL PICKs



Top 9 :WK 10 , SN:43-28 ……….

PICKS: Oak (2), Pitt, Minn, Sea (2), Sea Ovr, Tenn, TB
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Next 7, WK10 picks: , 42-33on SN … ...

Picks: GB, Car, (GB/Car Cancel out), Chi, Minn, Nyg, Buff
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Fade 3, WK10 PICKA: , SN: 18-11 …

Picks: No Picks


Once again Thx BUZZ ...
 

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[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 11 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 11 picks.

[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (3-2 last week, 27-22-2 overall)[/h][h=3]The Bear (1-3 last week, 22-20-1 overall)[/h]
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (-16, 46)
The Bear: The Yellow Jackets have improved throughout the year, especially over the past couple of weeks -- on the defensive side of the football -- against Pitt and Miami, but the offense isn't up to speed yet. Virginia got a brilliant game from Bryce Perkins in the win at North Carolina, but I can see a bit of a slow start in an early kickoff for the Cavaliers, who are two wins away from a berth in the ACC title game. Virginia has five games with multiple turnovers, and half of the turnovers that the Cavaliers have forced this season came in one game, against Duke. Virginia has struggled against the run recently too, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Jackets hang around here after the Cavs posted a season high in yards and a turnover-free game last week.
Pick: Georgia Tech +16
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UAB Blazers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4.5, 50.5)
The Bear: I don't get the line move here at all. Our FPI numbers have Southern Miss by about nine here. Also factor in an off week last week for the Golden Eagles -- allowing some injuries to running backs to heal -- and it likely would help some red zone issues they've had. UAB was blown out by Tennessee and likely lost QB Tyler Johnston III in the process, adding to the list of Blazer injuries. UAB has played the worst schedule in the FBS, and on the road here versus a team that has lost to Alabama, at Mississippi State and at Louisiana Tech, the Blazers might be up against it.
Pick: Southern Miss -4.5
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Temple Owls (-2, 49) at South Florida Bulls
The Bear: Our numbers have South Florida as about a 4-point favorite here. Give the Bulls credit; sitting at 1-3 and looking like the season was headed downhill, they rolled off three wins in four games to keep hope alive for a bowl game. But a win here is a must, as they will have to pull upsets of Cincinnati, Memphis or UCF, as well, to get there. Temple could use a win after consecutive blowout losses to SMU and UCF, but the Owls didn't stop the run at all in those games, and USF has run the ball very well as of late.
Pick: South Florida +2
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Baylor Bears (-2, 47.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: I'm going back in on a TCU game after losing with the Horned Frogs last week. History says 8-0 or better teams on the road favored by a field goal or less against an unranked team fare pretty well (see Bear Bytes below). And I would expect Baylor to play a much sharper game than it did last week against West Virginia, despite the looming showdown with Oklahoma next week. The expectation is that TCU quarterback Max Duggan will play after being injured last week, but I would expect him to be shy of 100 percent. And if he can't go or reinjures himself, the TCU QB situation gets even muddier. After two earlier wins this year by a field goal or less, Baylor bounced back immediately to post a pair of 17-plus-point wins. It might not be a 17-point win, but Matt Rhule should have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Pick: Baylor -2
Stanford Steve: Watching the end of TCU's loss last week, I noticed Duggan went down with an awful-looking injury to his throwing hand, so his status is unknown. His backup, Mike Collins, also was injured in the last couple of minutes. The Frogs also had another QB transfer this week. So, if Duggan does play, I don't expect him to be 100 percent. I was on Baylor last week, and the Bears put forth their worst effort of the year and were fortunate to beat West Virginia, not even coming close to covering the 17.5 points they were favored by. I think the Bears, with the extra days of prep after playing on a Thursday night, will be ready for this road test. I'll lay the points with the road favorite.
Pick: Baylor -2. Baylor 27, TCU 17.
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Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 48)
Stanford Steve: Just really like the situation here. Louisville is off a bye with a head coach who I trust a lot. "The U" is coming off an impressive win over rival Florida State in Tallahassee. Letdown spot for Miami? I think so.
Pick: Louisville +6.5. Miami 24, Louisville 23.
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Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (PK, 42)
Stanford Steve: The Vols come in off two wins in which they scored a combined 71 points. The Wildcats are off a bye and will bring a ferocious defense, along with a seriously hostile atmosphere. Plus, if Mark Stoops really wants the Florida State job, a win here would help that cause immensely.
Pick: Kentucky PK. Kentucky 21, Tennessee 17.
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Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-12, 48)
Stanford Steve: The Cowboys head to the "Smurf Turf" a week after losing starting QB Sean Chambers. I don't like the matchup for the Pokes here. I will provide you some useless information though. Broncos head coach Bryan Harsin allowed freshman QB Hank Bachmeier to meet with the media for the first time this week. Not one question asked of him was about this game.
Pick: Boise State -12. Boise State 31, Wyoming 14.
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[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $80.03.
BYU -900
SMU -2000
Wisconsin -400
San Diego State -1100
UCF -850
Clemson -8000

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines, parlays, round robins[/h]South Florida +105
Florida State +110
Louisville +205
Duke +265
Wyoming +400

[h=3]Stanford Steve's four-team, 14-point teaser[/h]I'm not sure I want to take the favorites and the over separately, so we have this:
Clemson Tigers (-31.5, 53.5) at NC State Wolfpack
You think Dabo Swinney will have his team's attention after the College Football Playoff rankings released earlier this week had the Tigers at No. 5? It's the first time since 2014 that they haven't been in top four. The team that always finds a way to punch in a score late might just try to make sure they punch in a couple of more.
Prediction: Clemson 51, NC State 10.
UMass Minutemen at Army Black Knights (-34, 62.5)
Just because.
Prediction: Army 51, UMass 14.
Pick: Clemson -17.5 and over 39.5, Army -20 and over 48.5.

[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]
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Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5, 39.5)
I strongly suggest watching what could be an offensive masterpiece of a game. But I highly advise not wagering on it.
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Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans (-14.5, 45.5)
It looks like Illinois will be a very public 'dog. The Illini have been playing much better ball. And it's always tough to lay north of two TDs with an inconsistent Michigan State offense. So why am I so worried about taking the points here?
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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5, 52.5)
You deserve whatever you get for getting involved here.
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]
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Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 60) at West Virginia Mountaineers
Lubbock at Morgantown? No thanks.

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]All you need to know about Alabama-LSU
The last time Alabama was favored by less than seven points at home was for the 2011 LSU game, which the second-ranked Crimson Tide lost 9-6 as 5-point favorite vs. No. 1 LSU. As of Thursday, Alabama was a 6.5-point favorite for Saturday's matchup.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been less than a 7-point favorite four times. The Tide has lost three of the games outright and pushed the other.
2011: -5 vs. LSU, lost 9-6
2010: -4 vs. Auburn, lost 28-27
2007: -3.5 vs. Georgia, lost 26-23
2007: -3 vs. Arkansas, won 41-38
And the past six times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-3 straight up, and they covered only once.
2018: -5.5, vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
In the past 40 years, there have been five regular-season games between the AP Nos. 1 and 2 in which the AP No. 1 was an underdog. The AP No. 1 won outright all five times, including LSU as a 5-point 'dog at Alabama in 2011.
2011: No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama (-5), won 9-6
2006: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 2 Texas (-2.5), won 24-7
1989: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Michigan (-1), won 24-19
1988: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Southern California (-4), won 27-10
1985: No. 1 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan (-3), won 12-10
LSU is averaging 46.8 points per game this season, but the Tigers have had trouble putting up points against Alabama recently.
Past three years: 10 total points scored by LSU vs. Bama
Past four years: 26 points
Past five years: 39 points
Past six years: 56 points
Post-Florida State letdown is real
Miami is 1-5 against the spread (ATS), with four outright losses, the week after playing Florida State over the past six years.
Tough to lay points with Spartans
Since the start of last year, Michigan State has been a favorite of at least 14 points seven times. MSU is 1-6 ATS in those seven games, including an outright loss to Arizona State earlier this year as a 15.5-point favorite.
Iowa not a good road 'dog
In Iowa's past 15 games as an underdog, the Hawkeyes are 4-11 ATS with three outright wins. All three wins came when Iowa was a 'dog of at least seven points (+7 vs. Mississippi State in a bowl game last year, +20.5 vs. Ohio State in 2017 and +21 vs. Michigan in 2016). However, in Iowa's past seven games as a road underdog, the Hawkeyes are both 0-7 straight up and ATS. The last time Iowa won as a road underdog came in 2016 at Minnesota.
Bad spot again for Arkansas?
Under Chad Morris, Arkansas has lost three of five games against Group of Five opponents, including two at home; one came earlier this year as a 19.5-point favorite vs. San Jose State.
Bet on Baylor?
In the past 40 years, there have been nine teams 8-0 or better favored by a field goal or less on the road against an unranked team. Those nine teams have gone 7-2. The last such game came in 2015, when 11-0 Iowa won 28-20 at Nebraska as a 2-point favorite. This is the spot Baylor is in this week.
Historic day in Minneapolis
This is the first time since 1985 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent. That year, Lou Holtz's 20th-ranked Golden Gophers lost 23-19 to No. 9 Ohio State. It's the first time since 1961 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent in November. No. 5 Minnesota beat No. 7 Purdue 10-7 that year. And it's the first time since 1968 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-5 team. No. 16 Minnesota lost 29-20 to No. 2 USC that year.


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[h=1]Best bets for Week 11 college football games[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the 11th full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Johnson record: 29-21-1 (1-1 last week)
Connelly record: 18-11-2 (2-0-1 last week)
Steele record: 22-31 (4-1 last week)
Kezirian record: 35-26-1 (3-1 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
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[h=2]Friday's games[/h]
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[h=3]Washington Huskies (-10) at Oregon State Beavers[/h]Kezirian: This is all about the letdown spot for a Washington team that put everything it had into last week's home game against Utah. The Huskies lost a heartbreaker at home, and now they must hit the road to face an Oregon State team that provides minimal excitement. Meanwhile, the Beavers have won back-to-back games in the underdog role, and I think they're a live 'dog here, as well.
The Beavers are two wins away from bowl eligibility, and their best chances are the next two games at home, before closing out the season on the road at Washington State and Oregon. I think it is a great spot to back Oregon State -- with a raucous home crowd on national television -- catching a flat Huskies team. Now, the Beavers' defense is pretty weak, so I have much more confidence in their ability to score points. In my eyes, a high-scoring non-cover is more likely than a low-scoring cover, so I am opting for the team total.
Pick: Oregon State team total over 27.5 points (FanDuel)

[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
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[h=3]LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5)[/h]Johnson: I'm going to zag while everyone is anticipating a ton of points in this season's LSU-Alabama matchup. Look, I'm as pro-Joe Brady and Joe Burrow as anybody. I discussed their impact on the LSU offense at length in my top 25 preseason futures bets article. My projection for the full game total is 59.8, so I think the market perception is a little overblown. The narrative is that the Alabama defense isn't very good this season; the Crimson Tide "aren't very good" because they aren't No. 1, like most years. They still rank 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency -- and that's pretty good.
Both teams had a bye week to prepare for the other defensively (LSU ranks 14th on the defensive side of the ball, by the way), and with teams likely feeling the game out early, I'm angling in on the first half total at 31.5. The game will open up in the second half with either squad trailing, and I do respect the offenses enough to realize it could be back-and-forth late in this game. It's also worth noting that Tua Tagovailoa has been hurt, and we aren't even sure how effective he will be. What if Nick Saban approaches the game with a run-first mentality to avoid putting Tagovailoa in spots with an injured ankle, similar to last year's SEC championship game (when he threw multiple interceptions against Georgia)? There's even a chance Tagovailoa doesn't play in the game at all. Everything points to an under here for me.
Pick: 1H under 31.5 points (DraftKings)
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[h=3]Clemson Tigers (-31.5) at NC State Wolfpack[/h]Kezirian: My colleagues are stricter about their numbers, but I am a sucker for a narrative, and this game fits that mold. Dabo Swinney not only loves to play the underdog card, but he orchestrates Clemson's best performances in such situations. The undefeated defending champs are ranked fifth in the CFP's first rankings, and that plays right into the hands of Swinney. For example, after nearly losing to North Carolina, the Tigers covered against their next FBS opponents. They also combined to outscore those opponents by a 83-10 margin in the first half. I think Swinney pushes all the right buttons of a team that feels slighted by the committee. On top of that, North Carolina State is pretty weak, and its best win is Syracuse at home. This should be a blowout from the start.
Pick: Clemson -17.5 1H (DraftKings)
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[h=3]USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)[/h]Kezirian: This is a similar situation to what I explained with Washington in that it is a flat spot for Southern California. However, instead of a gut-wrenching loss, the Trojans got undressed by Oregon. USC head coach Clay Helton is likely on the verge of being fired, and I just don't see how this team rallies to play a competitive road game in what is usually a tough stadium. Plus, the Trojans' defense has been hit hard with injuries, and that is a dream for Arizona State and quarterback Jayden Daniels. He is a true freshman, and he showed his limitations early in the season, but the offense has picked up in the past few weeks (except when it faced Utah's top-notch defense). I expect the Sun Devils to have a productive day, and the defense will create some opportunities against a USC offense that might be checked out. I prefer the team total because USC has such talent at wide receiver and that concerns me a bit.
Pick: Arizona State team total over 29 points (FanDuel)
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[h=3]Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans (-15)[/h]Kezirian: Respected bettors have continued to back Michigan State this season, and I cannot figure out why. Perhaps I will learn the hard way on Saturday, but I must continue to fade this overrated squad that is getting by on brand and reputation. They're 2-6 against the spread (ATS), including 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The offense is extremely limited, and now it will be without two key players. Center Matt Allen and senior wide receiver Darrell Stewart Jr. will both miss this game due to injury. Stewart accounts for 37% of Sparty's receiving yards. With all that being said, I think we see their best effort off a bye, and while I do expect them to win, 15 points seems like a ton. Illinois has burned me a couple of times this season, but I just cannot say no to Lovie Smith and his immaculate beard. The Illini seemingly have turned the corner in his fourth season, thanks to an upset over Wisconsin and flirting with another one against Michigan. When QB Brandon Peters stays healthy, they have several weapons to hang with most teams. Illinois has won three straight, and I anticipate another good showing in East Lansing.
Pick: Illinois +15
Connelly: All right, if Kezirian and Lovie's beard are giving me cover, I'll lean into this one too. Michigan State is still capable of excellent performances -- beating Indiana by nine certainly seems like a far more impressive win now than people realized at the time -- but that was quite a while, and a few key players, ago. State's biggest strength (run defense) should negate Illinois' preferred style enough to win the game, but (A) SP+ still only projects an 11.5-point win; (B) linebacker Joe Bachie is suspended and, as mentioned, the Sparty receiving corps is a shambles; and (C) 15 points is indeed a big number.
Pick: Illinois +15
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[h=3]Baylor Bears (-2) at TCU Horned Frogs[/h]Connelly: TCU has proved it can randomly put together something brilliant at home this season -- a 37-27 win over Texas and a 51-14 win over Kansas that looks more impressive now than it did then -- but I'm going with the numbers on this one. SP+ likes Baylor enough to project the Bears a 5.7-point favorite, and that's not taking into consideration TCU's potentially iffy QB situation.
Freshman starter Max Duggan got hurt late in TCU's loss to Oklahoma State, and then backup Mike Collins came in and got hurt, as well. Duggan probably will play, but he'll be going up against a Baylor pass defense that gives you no big plays and pressures you pretty well. If Duggan's health is worth an extra point or two in BU's favor, that makes this a pretty comfortable projected difference between SP+ and Caesars.
Pick: Baylor -2
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[h=3]Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes (-6.5)[/h]Connelly: Sigh, OK, fine. I'll bite. SP+ maintained extreme faith in Miami in recent weeks, never dropping the Canes below 32nd overall despite their 3-4 start and intensely frustrating losses to North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It saw a team that was dramatically, unsustainably unlucky and projected them as favorites at both Pitt and Florida State. I didn't make either one of those picks a Best Bet despite the huge difference between projection and Las Vegas. I was a coward. Two weeks late, then, I'm publicly jumping on the bandwagon. Miami still is far too inefficient offensively, but the -6.5 number is lovely, the Canes are making tons of explosive offensive plays and the Miami defense is still the Miami defense. Louisville is improving (from 70th in SP+ after five weeks to 53rd after 10), but there's enough space between the spread and the SP+ projection (Miami by 11.3) to carry the day here.
Pick: Miami -6.5
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[h=3]Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-7)[/h]Connelly: Eventually the number sucked me in. After opening around Texas -5.5 or -6, I expected it to drift a point or two toward Kansas State once bettors realized that (A) the Wildcats are 6-2 ATS and smoking hot and (B) Texas' defense has been getting worse and worse. It didn't happen. The Horns have had a bye week to get healthier, but it's really hard to ignore that they are 86th in defensive SP+ and haven't given up under 30 points since Week 3. And while the Texas offense is awesome, it could be without deep threat Brennan Eagles and tight end Cade Brewer, as both are listed as questionable. SP+ projects Texas as a 1.8-point favorite, and even taking into account that KSU's excellent DB AJ Parker is also listed as questionable, any injury adjustment is either neutral or moves that number in KSU's favor, not the Horns'.
Pick: KSU +7
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[h=3]Liberty Flames at BYU Cougars (-17)[/h]Kezirian: It's a lot to ask of Liberty, and I think this is too much. The Flames are playing their third straight road game, and this comes in altitude. Liberty has some respectable losses this year, but it also fell at Rutgers. According to Sagarin rankings, it has played the 143rd toughest schedule in all of college football. Given FBS has 130 teams, that means some FCS schools have played more difficult schedules. All that while the Cougars have won consecutive games and seem on their way to bowl eligibility. I have some concern with the BYU quarterback situation, with the top two on the depth chart unlikely to play. Baylor Romney will probably get the call, given both Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall are not fully recovered from injury. That has played a role in this spread coming down from 20.5 points. I still like BYU to overwhelm Liberty.
Pick: BYU -17
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[h=3]Georgia State Panthers (-2.5) at UL Monroe Warhawks[/h]Steele: Two years ago, Georgia State went from 3-9 to a surprising bowl bid, as the Panthers went 4-0 on their Sun Belt road games and put up a school-record 670 yards in their trip to UL Monroe that year. This years' squad is much stronger, with an upset win at Tennessee and a win over Army at home. The Panthers not only beat two of the SBC's preseason favorites in Troy and Arkansas State, they are plus-147 yards per game in league play. Georgia State is led by dual-threat QB Dan Ellington (1,771 pass yards, 66%, 18-4 ratio, 512 rush yards), and the Panthers average 321 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry against Sun Belt foes. ULM is at the other end of the spectrum at minus-71 yards per game in Sun Belt play, and the Warhawks' defense is allowing 235 yards per game on the ground and 5.6 yards per carry. The Panthers are the much better team, and they are laying less than a field goal.
ATS pick: Georgia State -2.5
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[h=3]UAB Blazers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4.5)[/h]Steele: Last week, UAB coach Bill Clark said the focus was on C-USA play and he rested numerous players, yet the Blazers still were only outgained by 65 yards at Tennessee. UAB is allowing just 224 yards per game and is plus-184 yards per game in C-USA play. UAB also is an impressive 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 conference games. The visitor is 4-1 straight up in this series, covering the past five, and there have been four outright upsets in the previous six meetings. This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so I will side with the defending C-USA champs as an underdog.
ATS pick: UAB +4.5
Johnson: I'm surprised by the early move this week on UAB. This opened +7 and has moved down to as low as +4.5 in the current market. For me, this is a buy on Southern Miss at this number. My projection is -8.5, and I just faded a UAB team last week against Tennessee that lost its starting QB, Tyler Johnston III, after going down 30-0 before scoring a garbage TD late in the fourth quarter. Johnston's status remains a question mark, but my 8.5-point projection assumes he is playing anyway. This is a list of the schools that this six-win UAB team has beaten this season: Alabama State, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and Old Dominion. The two semi-reputable teams they faced were Western Kentucky and Tennessee, and Johnston struggled mightily in each. Southern Miss is the better team coming off of their bye week for extra preparation and extra rest. I laid the 4.5.
Pick: Southern Miss -4.5
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[h=3]Wyoming Cowboys at No. 22 Boise State Broncos (-12.5)[/h]Steele: Last year, Boise jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead with a 286-73 yard edge and coasted to a 34-14 win at Wyoming. Boise still has a great shot at the Group of 5's New Years' Day Six bowl game, but it needs to impress down the stretch. Last year, Wyoming was 0-4 in Mountain West play, averaging just 11.5 points per game when Sean Chambers took over as starting QB with four games to go, and the Cowboys won their final four games, putting up 31 points per contest. Wyoming is 6-2 but has lost Chambers for the rest of the season. His mobility (567 rushing yards, 10 TDs) was a big part of a Cowboys offense that is completing just 40.6% of their passes. Boise got back QB Hank Bachmeier last week after he missed the Broncos' lone loss at BYU. He threw for 213 yards, and Bachmeier should be even better this week. Boise is plus-148 yards per game at home and has gone 12-1 in the series with their average win by 24.4 points per game. Wyoming has been outgained in all three road trips this year (-98 yards per game), and this is its toughest road opponent yet.
ATS pick: Boise State -12.5
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[h=3]North Texas Mean Green at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-5.5)[/h]Steele: Louisiana Tech is 26-11 straight up at home under Skip Holtz. While North Texas QB Mason Fine gets all the publicity, Tech QB J'Mar Smith is having a very quiet, solid season in hitting 67% with a 13-3 ratio, and running back Justin Henderson averages 7.0 yards per carry. Tech already has beaten C-USA contenders FIU and Southern Miss at home by 12 and 17 points, respectively. North Texas has not traveled well this year, losing all four road games by 12 points per game, and the Mean Green are being outgained by 73 yards per game. Tech is the stronger team, has a solid home edge and is in a good situation fresh off a bye with North Texas playing for a fifth straight week.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech -5.5
Johnson: There isn't much to this one for me. My projection is 76.3, and I'm going to bet discrepancies of a touchdown versus the market in most cases that weather and injuries aren't factors. Take a look at some of the scores against worse competition for each team this season. North Texas and Tech rank No. 23 and No. 29 in passing frequency. There are going to be a lot of plays run in this matchup, and I'm trusting my numbers and going with it.
Pick: Over 70
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[h=3]Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles (-2, 63)[/h]Steele: This is an important game for both teams' bowl hopes. Boston College has by far its most explosive offense under Steve Addazio, and it is gaining 85 yards per game more than its opponents typically allow. The Eagles' offensive line is a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award and has allowed just four sacks, and Boston College also has AJ Dillon, who is one of the top running backs in the country. Florida State is allowing 434 yards per game on defense. Boston College is at the other end of the spectrum on defense, as the Eagles allow their opponents to gain 94 yards more than average. Florida State has plenty of explosive athletes, led by running back Cam Akers, who has rushed for 983 yards, and receiver Tamorrion Terry, who averages 19.6 yards per catch. Interim head coach Odell Haggins also was the Seminoles' interim head coach in 2017, and Florida State scored 42 points in both of his games. The weather forecast is sunny with light winds, which makes me like the over.
Pick: Over 63
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[h=3]New Mexico State Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels (-28, 63)[/h]Johnson: After facing the Auburn, Texas A&M and Missouri defenses over the past three weeks, the Aggies will feel like a breath of fresh air for this Ole Miss offense. I'm still very bullish on new Rebels quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Most weeks he is the fastest player on the field, and we have seen flashes of brilliance in Rich Rodriguez's offense (remember Khalil Tate at Arizona in Rodriguez's final season?). I also will be betting the Ole Miss team total over, which based on the current market projects to be lined 45.5. The Rebels are going to light it up on Saturday, and their defense has been quietly stellar against stiff SEC competition. I'm thrilled to be laying just 28 points.
Pick: Ole Miss -28


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