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Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
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Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
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Here’s what we got so far
CKO
11* (2-0)
10* (6-6)
o/u (1-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0) UConn, Syracuse, Tulsa, Ohio, N. Texas
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0) Dallas, NE, NYG, SF
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-1-1) Texas
4* (1-2) SDSU
3* (2-1) Pitt
Upset pick (2-1) SMU
Betcha Didn't Know (3-2) Iowa St, SDSU
Awesome Angle (1-1-1) Cleveland (NFL)
Incredible Stat (2-1) Pitt (NCAA)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (0-2) Balt
4* (1-1) Cle
3* (0-2) GB
Pointwise NCAA
1* (2-3) UCF, Wazzu
2* (1-2) Wisky
3* (1-2) Air Force
4* (3-3) NW, TCU
5* (5-1) OK St, Wyoming
Pointwise NFL
3* (2-0) Minn
4* (3-1) Dallas, NE
5* (2-1-1) Houston, NYG
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (1-1) Ohio
3* (4-2) Georgia, Nebraska
2* (3-3) Pitt, Wazzu
Underdog Play of the Week (1-2) Michigan
Tech Play of the Week (1-2) TAMU
Revenge Play of the Week (0-3) Mich St
Situational Play of the Week (1-2) Ball St
Series Play of the Week (0-0)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (1-1) Indy
3* (2-0) Arizona
2* (1-1) Detroit
NFL System play (3-0) Dallas
4* Pro Angle (2-0) Indy
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (0-1-1)
2* (8-3)
1* (0-0)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-1)
2* (3-2)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0) Temple
NCAA Best Bets (5-4) BYU, App St, Oregon
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (4-1) Baltimore, Arizona
Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (3-3) Temple, UCF
88* (6-5-1) Nebraska, Wazzutbl Air Force, Baltimore
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-3) Temple
NCAA 3* (2-1) Oregon
NFL 4* (0-2) Baltimore
NFL 3* (2-0) Minn
Killer Sports, not including teasers (record does not include NFL Week 1)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-0)
MTI 4* (2-0)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-1)
SBB 4* (0-1)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-1)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (1-3) Panthers/Cards OVER
2* (2-1) Titans/Jags OVER, Rams/Browns UNDER
Team Total of the Week (2-0) Raiders u17
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (2-2) Tulsa
NCAA 4* (0-9) Miami FL, Kent St
NFL 4* (2-0) Dallas
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (8-4)
NFL Key Releases (3-3)
Tech Play (2-1)
CKO
11* (2-0)
10* (6-6)
o/u (1-2)
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0) UConn, Syracuse, Tulsa, Ohio, N. Texas
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0) Dallas, NE, NYG, SF
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-1-1) Texas
4* (1-2) SDSU
3* (2-1) Pitt
Upset pick (2-1) SMU
Betcha Didn't Know (3-2) Iowa St, SDSU
Awesome Angle (1-1-1) Cleveland (NFL)
Incredible Stat (2-1) Pitt (NCAA)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (0-2) Balt
4* (1-1) Cle
3* (0-2) GB
Pointwise NCAA
1* (2-3) UCF, Wazzu
2* (1-2) Wisky
3* (1-2) Air Force
4* (3-3) NW, TCU
5* (5-1) OK St, Wyoming
Pointwise NFL
3* (2-0) Minn
4* (3-1) Dallas, NE
5* (2-1-1) Houston, NYG
PowerSweep NCAA
4* (1-1) Ohio
3* (4-2) Georgia, Nebraska
2* (3-3) Pitt, Wazzu
Underdog Play of the Week (1-2) Michigan
Tech Play of the Week (1-2) TAMU
Revenge Play of the Week (0-3) Mich St
Situational Play of the Week (1-2) Ball St
Series Play of the Week (0-0)
PowerSweep NFL
4* (1-1) Indy
3* (2-0) Arizona
2* (1-1) Detroit
NFL System play (3-0) Dallas
4* Pro Angle (2-0) Indy
Powers Picks NCAA
3* (0-1-1)
2* (8-3)
1* (0-0)
Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-1)
2* (3-2)
1* (0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0) Temple
NCAA Best Bets (5-4) BYU, App St, Oregon
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (4-1) Baltimore, Arizona
Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (3-3) Temple, UCF
88* (6-5-1) Nebraska, Wazzutbl Air Force, Baltimore
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (0-3) Temple
NCAA 3* (2-1) Oregon
NFL 4* (0-2) Baltimore
NFL 3* (2-0) Minn
Killer Sports, not including teasers (record does not include NFL Week 1)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (0-0)
MTI 4* (2-0)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-1)
SBB 4* (0-1)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-1)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (1-3) Panthers/Cards OVER
2* (2-1) Titans/Jags OVER, Rams/Browns UNDER
Team Total of the Week (2-0) Raiders u17
PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (2-2) Tulsa
NCAA 4* (0-9) Miami FL, Kent St
NFL 4* (2-0) Dallas
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (8-4)
NFL Key Releases (3-3)
Tech Play (2-1)
Newsletters:
Sports Reporter
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Gaming Today September 18-24
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Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
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Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
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Sports Reporter
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
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Pointwise
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Gaming Today September 18-24
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Winning Points
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Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
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Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN
Latest from top handicappers Last 3 uears in Playbook contest.
CFB
the 9 who had the top records & finished top 20 LY went 5-2-1 LW in college. Season to date record: 12-5-1.
this weeks plays: Okla St, Syram , ND, Texas (2), miss state, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee.
the 7 who had good records L3y but didn't finish in top 20 LY. went 2-3 LW. season to date: 3-5.
This weeks plays: S diego ST, ND, Utah, Ky, UNC
3 worst records L3y's. went 1-1 LW. 2-5 to date.
This weeks plays: UCF, Louisville, Syracuse
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFB
the 9 who had the top records & finished top 20 LY went 5-2-1 LW in college. Season to date record: 12-5-1.
this weeks plays: Okla St, Syram , ND, Texas (2), miss state, Washington, Michigan, Tennessee.
the 7 who had good records L3y but didn't finish in top 20 LY. went 2-3 LW. season to date: 3-5.
This weeks plays: S diego ST, ND, Utah, Ky, UNC
3 worst records L3y's. went 1-1 LW. 2-5 to date.
This weeks plays: UCF, Louisville, Syracuse
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the 9 who had the top records & finished top 20 LY went 4-4 LW in NFL. Season to date record: 8-8
this weeks plays: GB und, Balt, KC(2), IND, NE und, CLE und, DET, MINN
the 7 who had good records L3y but didn't finish in top 20 LY. went 2-3 LW. season to date: 3-5.
This weeks plays: IND, DET, BALT, DEN, HOU, NYG, GB und, PHI und
3 worst records L3y's. went 0-4 LW. 2-5 to date.
This weeks plays: Wash, Phi, KC Ovr
GL & thx for posting the contest picks Buzz !!!
this weeks plays: GB und, Balt, KC(2), IND, NE und, CLE und, DET, MINN
the 7 who had good records L3y but didn't finish in top 20 LY. went 2-3 LW. season to date: 3-5.
This weeks plays: IND, DET, BALT, DEN, HOU, NYG, GB und, PHI und
3 worst records L3y's. went 0-4 LW. 2-5 to date.
This weeks plays: Wash, Phi, KC Ovr
GL & thx for posting the contest picks Buzz !!!
Newsletters:
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Gaming Today September 18-24
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Winning Points
Power Sweep
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Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
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2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN
Sports Reporter
Gold Sheet
Gold Sheet Extra
Confidential Kick-Off
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Powers' Picks
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Gaming Today September 18-24
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Winning Points
Power Sweep
Power Plays
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Records:
2019 Newsletter records by week
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
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2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report
Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's September 18 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
VSiN
[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 4 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 4 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 4 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 4.
[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]The Bear (4-2 last week, 5-9-1 overall)[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (6-0-1 last week, 11-5-1 overall)[/h]
Wyoming Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: At 1-2, Tulsa is a small favorite over 3-0 Wyoming, so that immediately grabbed my attention. The Cowboys have a negative passing game in terms of expected points, are 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and now face a defense that's 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge for Tulsa over Wyoming, which is 70th on defense. I'm thinking Wyoming's opening-week victory over Missouri is a bit of a fluke, based on close calls the past two weeks against Idaho and Texas State. After putting up 21 on Oklahoma State last week, look for Tulsa to get a home win here and feel good entering its idle week.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Stanford Steve: I love everything about the Wyoming football program ... but I think Wyoming is the most overrated undefeated team in the country.
Pick: Tulsa. Tulsa 27, Wyoming 20.
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 47.5)
The Bear: Texas A&M really hung in there at Clemson a couple of weeks ago -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- and Jimbo Fisher has gotten A&M to play well in big games at Kyle Field, something the Aggies didn't do under Kevin Sumlin (3-9 vs. ranked teams at home). I wonder about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix against that A&M defense on the road here. And looking at A&M's schedule -- yes, Auburn has a difficult slate, too -- the Aggies really need a win here.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Stanford Steve: I like what I've seen from both of these teams to start the season, even though the Aggies have a loss. Plenty of eyes will be on Auburn's Nix in his first true road start, as he will take on the atmosphere of Kyle Field and the 12th Man. I think back to last season when these two teams met and Auburn rallied for an unthinkable win. That day at Auburn, the Aggies held the Tigers to 19 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Also in that game, A&M quarterback Kellen Mond struggled, completing 50% of his passes for 220 yards. Mond was a different player in road and home games last season, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions on the road and 19 TDs and four INTs at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5. Texas A&M 30, Auburn 21.
Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-3, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: This is the first time in the Bobcats' 39 games at the FBS level that they are favored. They win, but they don't cover.
Pick: Georgia State +3. Texas State 29, Georgia State 28.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: If you want to bet the game where College GameDay is going ... the Irish cover.
Pick: Notre Dame +14.5. Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24.
[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 44)
The Badgers' defense has been great against nobody, while the Wolverines' offense has sputtered. Michigan has more talent than Wisconsin, but it's hard to back the Wolverines until we see them put a complete game together. While it wouldn't surprise me to see them play well Saturday, what if the Badgers are for real? Too many questions for me to get involved.
Utah Utes (-4, 52) at USC Trojans
We know the numbers on Clay Helton as a 'dog (they aren't good), but I thought USC played OK last week at BYU. The world will be on Utah here. I'll sit and watch, and if things start going south, in-game betting will be the way to go.
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]
UCF Knights (-12.5, 61) at Pittsburgh Panthers
No clue how Pitt gets up off the deck after last week.
California Golden Bears at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 41)
The stat about ranked teams that are underdogs on the road vs. unranked teams scares me (see the Bear Bytes below), because Cal feels like the right side.
[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Boston College blew it up Friday night, so hopefully you reloaded Saturday, as the remaining 10 won. Here's this week's edition. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $43.16.
Iowa State -1150
Indiana -3700
Miami -6000
Virginia -6000
LSU -2200
Baylor -3500
Georgia -650
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML or in a parlay or round-robin[/h]Last week four of the five won, and if you played a $10 round-robin, you would have made roughly $1,100. Hopefully a couple of these can get home this week.
Pitt +375
Western Michigan +185 (FPI has WMU favored in the game)
Kentucky +200
Appalachian State +135
Louisville +200
SMU +280
BYU +200
[h=2]Stanford Steve's big-game money-line parlay[/h]A $100 bet wins $497.
Utah -180
Texas A&M -160
Wisconsin -160
Texas -220
[h=2]Stanford Steve's three-team, 10-point teaser for Friday[/h]Utah +6
Florida International +18
Air Force +18.5
[h=2]Stanford Steve's favorite team total over[/h]Alabama over 49
[h=2]Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the ML[/h]Northwestern +310
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h][h=3]Not much fight[/h]Under Clay Helton, USC is 1-12 outright and 2-11 against the spread as an underdog. Eleven of the 12 losses have come by double digits, and eight of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. The average margin of defeat in USC's past 12 losses as an underdog: 18.8 points per game. USC as an underdog under Helton:
2018 vs. Notre Dame (+12), lost by 7
2018 at Utah (+7), lost by 13
2018 at Texas (+3.5), lost by 23
2018 at Stanford (+5), lost by 14
2017 vs. Ohio State (+10), lost by 17 (Cotton Bowl)
2017 at Notre Dame (+3.5), lost by 35
2016 at Washington (+8), won by 13
2016 at Utah (+3), lost by 4
2016 at Stanford (+7), lost by 17
2016 vs. Alabama (+12), lost by 46 (Arlington, Texas)
2015 vs. Stanford (+4.5), lost by 19
2015 at Oregon (+4), lost by 20
2015 at Notre Dame (+6), lost by 10
[h=3]Michigan struggles as an underdog[/h]Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Four of the six losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first season at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-6) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-14).
[h=3]Mike Gundy excels in this role[/h]In its past nine games as an underdog, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS, with seven outright wins. One of Gundy's squad's losses came by one point against Oklahoma last season as a 21.5-point 'dog.
[h=3]Odds are Notre Dame at Georgia will not be close[/h]We all love big regular-season games between top-10 teams. But lately, those games haven't necessarily lived up to the hype or produced many upsets. In the past 13 pre-bowl meetings between top-10 teams, favorites are 10-3 ATS. The only underdog to win during that stretch was Ohio State (+4) last season at home vs. Michigan.
Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games against top-five teams. The Irish are 1-18 SU in their past 19 against top-five teams, with a scoring margin of minus-20.6 PPG. Fourteen of the 18 losses have come by at least 14 points and 10 by 20-plus points. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 0-4 in this spot, with three of four losses by at least 14 points.
Worst win percentage vs. top-five teams since 2000 (minimum 10 games):
Wake Forest 0-16
Vanderbilt 0-15
Indiana 0-13
Boston College 1-17
Notre Dame 1-17*
*0-4 under Kelly (three losses by 14-plus points)
Since 1978, there have been 28 top-10 matchups where the spread has been at least 14 points. The favorite has won 24 of them and gone 16-12 ATS (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS in the 20 regular-season games). The four 'dogs to win outright, two of which came in a conference title game:
2015, No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-14), W, 17-14
2001, No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Florida (-17.5), W, 34-32*
1998, No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5), W, 36-33*
1994, No. 6 Auburn at No. 1 Florida (-17), W, 36-33
*Conference championship game
[h=3]Northwestern a live 'dog?[/h]Few teams perform better in the underdog role than Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern Wildcats. The Cats are 13-4-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 18 games as a 'dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018, one of which was a 29-19 victory at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog. In the Spartans' past five games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has three touchdowns and nine turnovers in 67 drives. During that span, MSU has one 80-yard drive, has been held to single digits in four of five games and failed to score a touchdown in three of the five games.
[h=3]Unusually high spread for Florida-Tennessee[/h]This is the largest spread (Gators -14) in the Florida-Tennessee series since 2013. Florida won 31-17 that season as a 16-point favorite in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to cover four of the past five games in which they were favored.
[h=3]Which way will Ole Miss vs. Cal go?[/h]As an underdog at Cal, Justin Wilcox is 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins. Since 2015, there have been 25 instances in the pre-bowl season where a team ranked 20th or lower entered a game against an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-21 SU during that span. Last season, there were six instances, with Northwestern's victory at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose. Two weeks ago, unranked Maryland and USC both knocked off ranked underdogs in this spot. Add it all up, and since the start of last season, unranked favorites against teams ranked 20-25 are 8-1 SU and ATS. If you think that trend will continue, Ole Miss is your play this weekend.
[h=3]Bad home 'dog vs. bad road favorite[/h]Last week's win over USC was the only time in seven tries as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered the spread (1-5-1 ATS). However, Washington is 2-4 (1-5 ATS) in its past six games as a road favorite. Included in that are two losses as a double-digit favorite.
[h=3]Pitt typically hangs around in these games[/h]In its past five games as a regular-season double-digit underdog, Pitt, which hosts UCF on Saturday, is 4-1 ATS with one outright win and three losses by seven points or fewer. The only game Pitt didn't cover during that span was a 31-point loss at UCF last season as a 13.5-point underdog.
[h=3]Rare favorites[/h]This is the first time in 39 games Texas State is favored over an FBS opponent (-3 vs. Georgia State). The last time Texas State was favored over an FBS opponent was Nov. 19, 2015, vs. Louisiana Monroe. Dennis Franchione's team beat Todd Berry's team 16-3 as a 6.5-point favorite.
[h=3]Kansas isn't a big 'dog![/h]Saturday marks the first time since 2014 that Kansas is an underdog of less than a touchdown in a Big 12 game (West Virginia -4.5). The last time Kansas was a 'dog of less than a TD was Nov. 8, 2014, when the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 34-14 as a 3.5-point 'dog. That was 40 games ago.
[h=3]North Carolina on upset alert?[/h]Appalachian State has covered each of its past two games against Power 5 teams. Last season, the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn State as a 24-point underdog in a game they probably should have won. And in 2017, App State lost 20-19 to Wake Forest as a 5.5-point 'dog. The Mountaineers are 3-point underdogs at North Carolina.
[h=3]Fade Florida State?[/h]Florida State is 2-6 ATS with three outright losses in its eight games as a favorite under Willie Taggart.
[h=3]Trust the Ducks or Cardinal?[/h]Oregon (-10) has been a brutal road team in Pac-12 play lately -- 3-13 both straight up and against the spread since 2016. But can you take Stanford with any confidence?
In this file, they break down Week 4 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 4 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 4.
[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]The Bear (4-2 last week, 5-9-1 overall)[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (6-0-1 last week, 11-5-1 overall)[/h]
Wyoming Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: At 1-2, Tulsa is a small favorite over 3-0 Wyoming, so that immediately grabbed my attention. The Cowboys have a negative passing game in terms of expected points, are 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and now face a defense that's 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge for Tulsa over Wyoming, which is 70th on defense. I'm thinking Wyoming's opening-week victory over Missouri is a bit of a fluke, based on close calls the past two weeks against Idaho and Texas State. After putting up 21 on Oklahoma State last week, look for Tulsa to get a home win here and feel good entering its idle week.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Stanford Steve: I love everything about the Wyoming football program ... but I think Wyoming is the most overrated undefeated team in the country.
Pick: Tulsa. Tulsa 27, Wyoming 20.
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 47.5)
The Bear: Texas A&M really hung in there at Clemson a couple of weeks ago -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- and Jimbo Fisher has gotten A&M to play well in big games at Kyle Field, something the Aggies didn't do under Kevin Sumlin (3-9 vs. ranked teams at home). I wonder about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix against that A&M defense on the road here. And looking at A&M's schedule -- yes, Auburn has a difficult slate, too -- the Aggies really need a win here.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Stanford Steve: I like what I've seen from both of these teams to start the season, even though the Aggies have a loss. Plenty of eyes will be on Auburn's Nix in his first true road start, as he will take on the atmosphere of Kyle Field and the 12th Man. I think back to last season when these two teams met and Auburn rallied for an unthinkable win. That day at Auburn, the Aggies held the Tigers to 19 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Also in that game, A&M quarterback Kellen Mond struggled, completing 50% of his passes for 220 yards. Mond was a different player in road and home games last season, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions on the road and 19 TDs and four INTs at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5. Texas A&M 30, Auburn 21.
Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-3, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: This is the first time in the Bobcats' 39 games at the FBS level that they are favored. They win, but they don't cover.
Pick: Georgia State +3. Texas State 29, Georgia State 28.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: If you want to bet the game where College GameDay is going ... the Irish cover.
Pick: Notre Dame +14.5. Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24.
[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 44)
The Badgers' defense has been great against nobody, while the Wolverines' offense has sputtered. Michigan has more talent than Wisconsin, but it's hard to back the Wolverines until we see them put a complete game together. While it wouldn't surprise me to see them play well Saturday, what if the Badgers are for real? Too many questions for me to get involved.
Utah Utes (-4, 52) at USC Trojans
We know the numbers on Clay Helton as a 'dog (they aren't good), but I thought USC played OK last week at BYU. The world will be on Utah here. I'll sit and watch, and if things start going south, in-game betting will be the way to go.
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]
UCF Knights (-12.5, 61) at Pittsburgh Panthers
No clue how Pitt gets up off the deck after last week.
California Golden Bears at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 41)
The stat about ranked teams that are underdogs on the road vs. unranked teams scares me (see the Bear Bytes below), because Cal feels like the right side.
[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Boston College blew it up Friday night, so hopefully you reloaded Saturday, as the remaining 10 won. Here's this week's edition. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $43.16.
Iowa State -1150
Indiana -3700
Miami -6000
Virginia -6000
LSU -2200
Baylor -3500
Georgia -650
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML or in a parlay or round-robin[/h]Last week four of the five won, and if you played a $10 round-robin, you would have made roughly $1,100. Hopefully a couple of these can get home this week.
Pitt +375
Western Michigan +185 (FPI has WMU favored in the game)
Kentucky +200
Appalachian State +135
Louisville +200
SMU +280
BYU +200
[h=2]Stanford Steve's big-game money-line parlay[/h]A $100 bet wins $497.
Utah -180
Texas A&M -160
Wisconsin -160
Texas -220
[h=2]Stanford Steve's three-team, 10-point teaser for Friday[/h]Utah +6
Florida International +18
Air Force +18.5
[h=2]Stanford Steve's favorite team total over[/h]Alabama over 49
[h=2]Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the ML[/h]Northwestern +310
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h][h=3]Not much fight[/h]Under Clay Helton, USC is 1-12 outright and 2-11 against the spread as an underdog. Eleven of the 12 losses have come by double digits, and eight of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. The average margin of defeat in USC's past 12 losses as an underdog: 18.8 points per game. USC as an underdog under Helton:
2018 vs. Notre Dame (+12), lost by 7
2018 at Utah (+7), lost by 13
2018 at Texas (+3.5), lost by 23
2018 at Stanford (+5), lost by 14
2017 vs. Ohio State (+10), lost by 17 (Cotton Bowl)
2017 at Notre Dame (+3.5), lost by 35
2016 at Washington (+8), won by 13
2016 at Utah (+3), lost by 4
2016 at Stanford (+7), lost by 17
2016 vs. Alabama (+12), lost by 46 (Arlington, Texas)
2015 vs. Stanford (+4.5), lost by 19
2015 at Oregon (+4), lost by 20
2015 at Notre Dame (+6), lost by 10
[h=3]Michigan struggles as an underdog[/h]Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Four of the six losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first season at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-6) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-14).
[h=3]Mike Gundy excels in this role[/h]In its past nine games as an underdog, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS, with seven outright wins. One of Gundy's squad's losses came by one point against Oklahoma last season as a 21.5-point 'dog.
[h=3]Odds are Notre Dame at Georgia will not be close[/h]We all love big regular-season games between top-10 teams. But lately, those games haven't necessarily lived up to the hype or produced many upsets. In the past 13 pre-bowl meetings between top-10 teams, favorites are 10-3 ATS. The only underdog to win during that stretch was Ohio State (+4) last season at home vs. Michigan.
Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games against top-five teams. The Irish are 1-18 SU in their past 19 against top-five teams, with a scoring margin of minus-20.6 PPG. Fourteen of the 18 losses have come by at least 14 points and 10 by 20-plus points. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 0-4 in this spot, with three of four losses by at least 14 points.
Worst win percentage vs. top-five teams since 2000 (minimum 10 games):
Wake Forest 0-16
Vanderbilt 0-15
Indiana 0-13
Boston College 1-17
Notre Dame 1-17*
*0-4 under Kelly (three losses by 14-plus points)
Since 1978, there have been 28 top-10 matchups where the spread has been at least 14 points. The favorite has won 24 of them and gone 16-12 ATS (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS in the 20 regular-season games). The four 'dogs to win outright, two of which came in a conference title game:
2015, No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-14), W, 17-14
2001, No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Florida (-17.5), W, 34-32*
1998, No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5), W, 36-33*
1994, No. 6 Auburn at No. 1 Florida (-17), W, 36-33
*Conference championship game
[h=3]Northwestern a live 'dog?[/h]Few teams perform better in the underdog role than Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern Wildcats. The Cats are 13-4-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 18 games as a 'dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018, one of which was a 29-19 victory at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog. In the Spartans' past five games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has three touchdowns and nine turnovers in 67 drives. During that span, MSU has one 80-yard drive, has been held to single digits in four of five games and failed to score a touchdown in three of the five games.
[h=3]Unusually high spread for Florida-Tennessee[/h]This is the largest spread (Gators -14) in the Florida-Tennessee series since 2013. Florida won 31-17 that season as a 16-point favorite in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to cover four of the past five games in which they were favored.
[h=3]Which way will Ole Miss vs. Cal go?[/h]As an underdog at Cal, Justin Wilcox is 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins. Since 2015, there have been 25 instances in the pre-bowl season where a team ranked 20th or lower entered a game against an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-21 SU during that span. Last season, there were six instances, with Northwestern's victory at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose. Two weeks ago, unranked Maryland and USC both knocked off ranked underdogs in this spot. Add it all up, and since the start of last season, unranked favorites against teams ranked 20-25 are 8-1 SU and ATS. If you think that trend will continue, Ole Miss is your play this weekend.
[h=3]Bad home 'dog vs. bad road favorite[/h]Last week's win over USC was the only time in seven tries as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered the spread (1-5-1 ATS). However, Washington is 2-4 (1-5 ATS) in its past six games as a road favorite. Included in that are two losses as a double-digit favorite.
[h=3]Pitt typically hangs around in these games[/h]In its past five games as a regular-season double-digit underdog, Pitt, which hosts UCF on Saturday, is 4-1 ATS with one outright win and three losses by seven points or fewer. The only game Pitt didn't cover during that span was a 31-point loss at UCF last season as a 13.5-point underdog.
[h=3]Rare favorites[/h]This is the first time in 39 games Texas State is favored over an FBS opponent (-3 vs. Georgia State). The last time Texas State was favored over an FBS opponent was Nov. 19, 2015, vs. Louisiana Monroe. Dennis Franchione's team beat Todd Berry's team 16-3 as a 6.5-point favorite.
[h=3]Kansas isn't a big 'dog![/h]Saturday marks the first time since 2014 that Kansas is an underdog of less than a touchdown in a Big 12 game (West Virginia -4.5). The last time Kansas was a 'dog of less than a TD was Nov. 8, 2014, when the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 34-14 as a 3.5-point 'dog. That was 40 games ago.
[h=3]North Carolina on upset alert?[/h]Appalachian State has covered each of its past two games against Power 5 teams. Last season, the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn State as a 24-point underdog in a game they probably should have won. And in 2017, App State lost 20-19 to Wake Forest as a 5.5-point 'dog. The Mountaineers are 3-point underdogs at North Carolina.
[h=3]Fade Florida State?[/h]Florida State is 2-6 ATS with three outright losses in its eight games as a favorite under Willie Taggart.
[h=3]Trust the Ducks or Cardinal?[/h]Oregon (-10) has been a brutal road team in Pac-12 play lately -- 3-13 both straight up and against the spread since 2016. But can you take Stanford with any confidence?
[h=1]Best bets for Week 4 college football games[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 8-1 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 12-7 (5-3 last week)
Johnson: 8-8 (5-2 last week)
Steele: 6-11 (3-2 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=3]No. 11 Michigan Wolverines at No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5)[/h]Steele: Michigan was nearly a touchdown favorite in the Games of the Year lines this summer, but it now is getting slightly more than a field goal. In the opener against Middle Tennessee, the Wolverines gave up two short touchdown drives after fumbles and trailed early, but they won 40-21. And just like Army did versus Oklahoma last year, the Cadets took the Wolverines to overtime, and Michigan barely escaped. Oklahoma bounced back from that and made the College Football Playoff, and I expect a similar result from the Wolverines.
Last year, Michigan dominated the Badgers, leading 38-7 before allowing a late score. Wisconsin has been terrific so far but has faced two weak teams and takes a considerable step up in the level of competition. I look for Michigan to play its first complete game of the season and grab a big conference road win.
ATS pick: Michigan +3.5
Score: Michigan 23, Wisconsin 20
Johnson: I was about as pro-Wisconsin in the preseason as anybody, making wagers on the Badgers' over eight wins and +1500 to win the Big Ten. I thought Nebraska was overhyped and projected the Badgers to be the best team in the West division. However, this line is too high.
As bad as Michigan has looked in its first two games this season, Wisconsin shouldn't be laying over a field goal. Just a month ago, in the Games of the Year lookahead market, the Wolverines were laying anywhere from -5 to -6.5 in this matchup. I know that Wisconsin pounded USF and CMU to the tune of 110-0, but this is an overreaction. I'd like to see quarterback Jack Coan play a reputable defense before I anoint the Wolverines the second-best team in the conference. My projection is Wisconsin -1.2, so I'm taking the +3.5 with Michigan.
ATS pick: Michigan +3.5
[h=3]Charlotte 49ers at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-41.5)[/h]Kezirian: This game won't be close, but I expect the 49ers to score some points. Clemson's defense is awesome, but this is a classic spot for that unit to be flat, coming off a 41-6 win over Syracuse. Charlotte has an up-tempo offense, so I expect at least two scores, even if it requires garbage time.
Pick: 49ers over 9.5 points (-127) (DraftKings)
[h=3]Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 12 Texas Longhorns (-5.5)[/h]Kezirian: This line surprises me. Oklahoma State has shown some offensive flashes, but this team is a couple of notches below Texas. The Pokes' most impressive win came at Oregon State, which isn't exactly a statement game. And for all the points the Cowboys have scored, their offense still has limitations with freshman QB Spencer Sanders. Meanwhile, their defense has been extremely leaky. Texas showed top-level quality with its loss to LSU and should win by double digits.
ATS pick: Texas -5.5
[h=3]No. 16 Oregon Ducks (-10.5) at Stanford Cardinal[/h]Kezirian: Look beyond the Stanford brand: This just isn't a very good football team. The Cardinal just got drilled by pass-happy teams (UCF and Southern California) in back-to-back games, and next they face an Oregon squad led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. Stanford has given up more than 1,000 total yards in its past two games, and I envision Herbert having a field day. The Ducks blew last year's game a couple of times, and now they're looking for blood on The Farm. Lay the points.
ATS pick: Oregon -10.5
[h=3]Boston College Eagles (-7) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Connelly: This line feels like an overreaction to Boston College's 48-24 debacle against Kansas. And to be sure, it was an amazing debacle. But Rutgers has stayed within a touchdown of only three of its past 14 Power 5 conference opponents, and my SP+ ratings still project the Eagles as 10-point favorites. I'm terrified of BC's miserable defense, but Rutgers hasn't exactly proven that it can score points reliably. Plus, Scarlet Knights QB McLane Carter is listed as doubtful because of a concussion.
Pick: BC -7
[h=3]Baylor Bears (-26) at Rice Owls[/h]Connelly: It's tricky to call a giant line a "best bet" when it so frequently depends on when the favorite decides to call off the dogs. It's also tricky when the underdog is a team such as Rice, which plays at a snail's pace. But I'm feeling pretty good about this one for the following reasons:
1. Baylor beat a similarly bad team (UTSA) by 49 two weeks ago.
2. Rice just lost to a similarly good team (Texas) by 35.
3. SP+ projects Baylor as a 34.7-point favorite. That's a gap of nearly nine points between SP+ and the line. Even if Rice's tempo keeps it closer than that, are we talking nine points better here?
Pick: Baylor -26
[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers (-4) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]Connelly: This also feels like an overreaction to last week's Kansas-Boston College game. But WVU also scored a surprisingly easy win over an overrated ACC foe last week, beating NC State by 17, so those overreactions should cancel out if nothing else. West Virginia's run defense is, shall we say, lacking (129th in rushing success rate allowed), and that should keep things reasonably close against a Les Miles team. Still, the Mountaineers' offense showed major signs of life last week, and Kansas' defense isn't very good. SP+ projects the Mountaineers as 10.8-point favorites, and that sounds about right to me.
Pick: WVU -4
Johnson: As proud as I was to be a Kansas Jayhawks fan last week as a Boston College season wins under ticket holder, this is a fairly significant overreaction in the market to a game that I think should be lined closer to Mountaineers -7. WVU coach Neal Brown decided to go up-tempo on offense against NCST this past Saturday, and it was successful. Quarterback Austin Kendall threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, and the team as a whole averaged 6.4 yards per carry. I do think that Les Miles is making a positive impact on the Kansas football program, and I never thought I would be selling high on the Jayhawks in Week 4 of the season, but this number is too low to pass up.
Pick: WVU -4
[h=3]Utah State Aggies (-4) at San Diego State Aztecs[/h]Steele: At the start of the season, I had San Diego State favored at home, and the Aztecs have played to my expectation level in the first three games, with their defense allowing just eight points and 248 yards per game. Last season, the Aztecs opened 6-1 but lost five key players and struggled down the stretch, going 4-4 in Mountain West play. Head coach Rocky Long usually saves his best for conference play and the previous six years is 40-10 straight-up in Mountain West play and an even more impressive 34-15-1 ATS.
The past six times that Long has been a home 'dog, he is 5-0-1 ATS, including upsets of Arizona State, Stanford and Boise State. I think the Aztecs are the stronger team, and they are at home.
ATS pick: San Diego State +4
Score: San Diego State 26, Utah State 23
[h=3]Appalachian State Mountaineers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)[/h]Steele: Both teams have new head coaches, but Appalachian State was a dominant team in 2018 that lost its head coach to Louisville, and it hasn't been as dominant under first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Charlotte had a 526-458 yardage edge at Appalachian State two weeks ago, and this is the Mountaineers' first road trip.
Mack Brown is an experienced, winning head coach, his team has bought in, and it has talent. The Tar Heels pulled comeback upsets in each of their first two games over South Carolina and Miami and last week came up just short. UNC is back at home and, unlike most Power 5 teams, probably feels like an underdog to a Group of 5 team that is 43-11 the past five years.
ATS pick: North Carolina -3
Score: North Carolina 35, Appalachian State 24
[h=3]Michigan State Spartans (-9.5) at Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Steele: Betting the underdog in games involving Northwestern has gone 12-1-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons, with the only loss being when Stanford recovered a fumble in the end zone with 20 seconds left to win 17-7 at home as 6.5-point favorites. Pat Fitzgerald always has been a great underdog coach (and poor coach when favored), as he is 4-1-1 ATS in his past six tilts as a home 'dog, with three of those outright upsets.
Northwestern is the defending Big Ten West champion and is not only 26-9 SU in Big Ten play during the past four years but also on a current 15-1 SU in Big Ten regular-season play. Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS as an away favorite the past five years. Michigan State's offense has averaged only 13.3 points per game in its past 10 games versus Power 5 opponents and now must cover more than a TD on the road.
ATS pick: Northwestern +9.5
Score: Michigan State 16, Northwestern 13
[h=3]South Alabama Jaguars at UAB Blazers (-10)[/h]Steele: Two years ago, Bill Clark had a young squad that hadn't played football in two years. The Blazers opened slowly the first two games, then went 7-1 ATS their next eight games, covering by 14.3 points per game. Clark has a young team again this year, but it covered on the road against Akron and now is coming off a bye and at home. UAB is not only 13-0 SU at home since its return, but the Blazers are also 10-2-1 ATS and have allowed just 290 yards per game at home in that span. They have a blitzing defense that will face a similarly young South Alabama squad.
The Jaguars used two quarterbacks last week who combined to hit nine of 26 passes at home versus Memphis. South Alabama is 3-4 ATS on the road under coach Steve Campbell, losing by 30 points per game.
ATS pick: UAB -10
Score: UAB 33, South Alabama 16
[h=3]Western Michigan Broncos at Syracuse Orange (-5.5)[/h]Johnson: This is another market overreaction that stands out to me in Week 4, as my projection is Syracuse -8.6. I'm aware the Orange have been trounced in their past two games against Clemson and Maryland, but they also beat a fairly respectable Liberty team in the season opener 24-0. (Liberty just beat Buffalo 35-17.) Tommy DeVito is certainly a step down from Eric Dungey at QB, but I still believe in Dino Babers and a program that returned a good amount of its production from the past couple of seasons.
Western Michigan deserves credit for beating Georgia State 57-10 this past Saturday, but it benefited from three red zone turnovers from the Panthers as well as a turnover on downs. It's probably a combination of the Broncos' performance in Week 3 and the lack of Syracuse firepower early that is giving us this number under a touchdown. I'm laying it.
ATS pick: Syracuse -5.5
[h=3]Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)[/h]Johnson: I was surprised to see this game bet down from +8.5 to +6.5 early this week. I'm assuming it means that Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass (questionable in Week 4) is playing, but even if he does, my projection for this game is FSU -8.5. The Seminoles brought in Jim Leavitt last week to help coach a defense that had struggled getting stops against UL-Monroe and Boise State. I thought his impact made an immediate difference this past Saturday against Virginia (with the best offense of that group). With the explosiveness of Kendal Briles' new offense and the Seminoles continually getting more accustomed to its intricacies, I anticipate a win and cover over an inferior Louisville squad with question marks at quarterback.
ATS pick: Florida State -6.5
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 8-1 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 12-7 (5-3 last week)
Johnson: 8-8 (5-2 last week)
Steele: 6-11 (3-2 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]
[h=3]No. 11 Michigan Wolverines at No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5)[/h]Steele: Michigan was nearly a touchdown favorite in the Games of the Year lines this summer, but it now is getting slightly more than a field goal. In the opener against Middle Tennessee, the Wolverines gave up two short touchdown drives after fumbles and trailed early, but they won 40-21. And just like Army did versus Oklahoma last year, the Cadets took the Wolverines to overtime, and Michigan barely escaped. Oklahoma bounced back from that and made the College Football Playoff, and I expect a similar result from the Wolverines.
Last year, Michigan dominated the Badgers, leading 38-7 before allowing a late score. Wisconsin has been terrific so far but has faced two weak teams and takes a considerable step up in the level of competition. I look for Michigan to play its first complete game of the season and grab a big conference road win.
ATS pick: Michigan +3.5
Score: Michigan 23, Wisconsin 20
Johnson: I was about as pro-Wisconsin in the preseason as anybody, making wagers on the Badgers' over eight wins and +1500 to win the Big Ten. I thought Nebraska was overhyped and projected the Badgers to be the best team in the West division. However, this line is too high.
As bad as Michigan has looked in its first two games this season, Wisconsin shouldn't be laying over a field goal. Just a month ago, in the Games of the Year lookahead market, the Wolverines were laying anywhere from -5 to -6.5 in this matchup. I know that Wisconsin pounded USF and CMU to the tune of 110-0, but this is an overreaction. I'd like to see quarterback Jack Coan play a reputable defense before I anoint the Wolverines the second-best team in the conference. My projection is Wisconsin -1.2, so I'm taking the +3.5 with Michigan.
ATS pick: Michigan +3.5
[h=3]Charlotte 49ers at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-41.5)[/h]Kezirian: This game won't be close, but I expect the 49ers to score some points. Clemson's defense is awesome, but this is a classic spot for that unit to be flat, coming off a 41-6 win over Syracuse. Charlotte has an up-tempo offense, so I expect at least two scores, even if it requires garbage time.
Pick: 49ers over 9.5 points (-127) (DraftKings)
[h=3]Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 12 Texas Longhorns (-5.5)[/h]Kezirian: This line surprises me. Oklahoma State has shown some offensive flashes, but this team is a couple of notches below Texas. The Pokes' most impressive win came at Oregon State, which isn't exactly a statement game. And for all the points the Cowboys have scored, their offense still has limitations with freshman QB Spencer Sanders. Meanwhile, their defense has been extremely leaky. Texas showed top-level quality with its loss to LSU and should win by double digits.
ATS pick: Texas -5.5
[h=3]No. 16 Oregon Ducks (-10.5) at Stanford Cardinal[/h]Kezirian: Look beyond the Stanford brand: This just isn't a very good football team. The Cardinal just got drilled by pass-happy teams (UCF and Southern California) in back-to-back games, and next they face an Oregon squad led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. Stanford has given up more than 1,000 total yards in its past two games, and I envision Herbert having a field day. The Ducks blew last year's game a couple of times, and now they're looking for blood on The Farm. Lay the points.
ATS pick: Oregon -10.5
[h=3]Boston College Eagles (-7) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Connelly: This line feels like an overreaction to Boston College's 48-24 debacle against Kansas. And to be sure, it was an amazing debacle. But Rutgers has stayed within a touchdown of only three of its past 14 Power 5 conference opponents, and my SP+ ratings still project the Eagles as 10-point favorites. I'm terrified of BC's miserable defense, but Rutgers hasn't exactly proven that it can score points reliably. Plus, Scarlet Knights QB McLane Carter is listed as doubtful because of a concussion.
Pick: BC -7
[h=3]Baylor Bears (-26) at Rice Owls[/h]Connelly: It's tricky to call a giant line a "best bet" when it so frequently depends on when the favorite decides to call off the dogs. It's also tricky when the underdog is a team such as Rice, which plays at a snail's pace. But I'm feeling pretty good about this one for the following reasons:
1. Baylor beat a similarly bad team (UTSA) by 49 two weeks ago.
2. Rice just lost to a similarly good team (Texas) by 35.
3. SP+ projects Baylor as a 34.7-point favorite. That's a gap of nearly nine points between SP+ and the line. Even if Rice's tempo keeps it closer than that, are we talking nine points better here?
Pick: Baylor -26
[h=3]West Virginia Mountaineers (-4) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]Connelly: This also feels like an overreaction to last week's Kansas-Boston College game. But WVU also scored a surprisingly easy win over an overrated ACC foe last week, beating NC State by 17, so those overreactions should cancel out if nothing else. West Virginia's run defense is, shall we say, lacking (129th in rushing success rate allowed), and that should keep things reasonably close against a Les Miles team. Still, the Mountaineers' offense showed major signs of life last week, and Kansas' defense isn't very good. SP+ projects the Mountaineers as 10.8-point favorites, and that sounds about right to me.
Pick: WVU -4
Johnson: As proud as I was to be a Kansas Jayhawks fan last week as a Boston College season wins under ticket holder, this is a fairly significant overreaction in the market to a game that I think should be lined closer to Mountaineers -7. WVU coach Neal Brown decided to go up-tempo on offense against NCST this past Saturday, and it was successful. Quarterback Austin Kendall threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns, and the team as a whole averaged 6.4 yards per carry. I do think that Les Miles is making a positive impact on the Kansas football program, and I never thought I would be selling high on the Jayhawks in Week 4 of the season, but this number is too low to pass up.
Pick: WVU -4
[h=3]Utah State Aggies (-4) at San Diego State Aztecs[/h]Steele: At the start of the season, I had San Diego State favored at home, and the Aztecs have played to my expectation level in the first three games, with their defense allowing just eight points and 248 yards per game. Last season, the Aztecs opened 6-1 but lost five key players and struggled down the stretch, going 4-4 in Mountain West play. Head coach Rocky Long usually saves his best for conference play and the previous six years is 40-10 straight-up in Mountain West play and an even more impressive 34-15-1 ATS.
The past six times that Long has been a home 'dog, he is 5-0-1 ATS, including upsets of Arizona State, Stanford and Boise State. I think the Aztecs are the stronger team, and they are at home.
ATS pick: San Diego State +4
Score: San Diego State 26, Utah State 23
[h=3]Appalachian State Mountaineers at North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)[/h]Steele: Both teams have new head coaches, but Appalachian State was a dominant team in 2018 that lost its head coach to Louisville, and it hasn't been as dominant under first-year coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Charlotte had a 526-458 yardage edge at Appalachian State two weeks ago, and this is the Mountaineers' first road trip.
Mack Brown is an experienced, winning head coach, his team has bought in, and it has talent. The Tar Heels pulled comeback upsets in each of their first two games over South Carolina and Miami and last week came up just short. UNC is back at home and, unlike most Power 5 teams, probably feels like an underdog to a Group of 5 team that is 43-11 the past five years.
ATS pick: North Carolina -3
Score: North Carolina 35, Appalachian State 24
[h=3]Michigan State Spartans (-9.5) at Northwestern Wildcats[/h]Steele: Betting the underdog in games involving Northwestern has gone 12-1-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons, with the only loss being when Stanford recovered a fumble in the end zone with 20 seconds left to win 17-7 at home as 6.5-point favorites. Pat Fitzgerald always has been a great underdog coach (and poor coach when favored), as he is 4-1-1 ATS in his past six tilts as a home 'dog, with three of those outright upsets.
Northwestern is the defending Big Ten West champion and is not only 26-9 SU in Big Ten play during the past four years but also on a current 15-1 SU in Big Ten regular-season play. Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS as an away favorite the past five years. Michigan State's offense has averaged only 13.3 points per game in its past 10 games versus Power 5 opponents and now must cover more than a TD on the road.
ATS pick: Northwestern +9.5
Score: Michigan State 16, Northwestern 13
[h=3]South Alabama Jaguars at UAB Blazers (-10)[/h]Steele: Two years ago, Bill Clark had a young squad that hadn't played football in two years. The Blazers opened slowly the first two games, then went 7-1 ATS their next eight games, covering by 14.3 points per game. Clark has a young team again this year, but it covered on the road against Akron and now is coming off a bye and at home. UAB is not only 13-0 SU at home since its return, but the Blazers are also 10-2-1 ATS and have allowed just 290 yards per game at home in that span. They have a blitzing defense that will face a similarly young South Alabama squad.
The Jaguars used two quarterbacks last week who combined to hit nine of 26 passes at home versus Memphis. South Alabama is 3-4 ATS on the road under coach Steve Campbell, losing by 30 points per game.
ATS pick: UAB -10
Score: UAB 33, South Alabama 16
[h=3]Western Michigan Broncos at Syracuse Orange (-5.5)[/h]Johnson: This is another market overreaction that stands out to me in Week 4, as my projection is Syracuse -8.6. I'm aware the Orange have been trounced in their past two games against Clemson and Maryland, but they also beat a fairly respectable Liberty team in the season opener 24-0. (Liberty just beat Buffalo 35-17.) Tommy DeVito is certainly a step down from Eric Dungey at QB, but I still believe in Dino Babers and a program that returned a good amount of its production from the past couple of seasons.
Western Michigan deserves credit for beating Georgia State 57-10 this past Saturday, but it benefited from three red zone turnovers from the Panthers as well as a turnover on downs. It's probably a combination of the Broncos' performance in Week 3 and the lack of Syracuse firepower early that is giving us this number under a touchdown. I'm laying it.
ATS pick: Syracuse -5.5
[h=3]Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5)[/h]Johnson: I was surprised to see this game bet down from +8.5 to +6.5 early this week. I'm assuming it means that Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass (questionable in Week 4) is playing, but even if he does, my projection for this game is FSU -8.5. The Seminoles brought in Jim Leavitt last week to help coach a defense that had struggled getting stops against UL-Monroe and Boise State. I thought his impact made an immediate difference this past Saturday against Virginia (with the best offense of that group). With the explosiveness of Kendal Briles' new offense and the Seminoles continually getting more accustomed to its intricacies, I anticipate a win and cover over an inferior Louisville squad with question marks at quarterback.
ATS pick: Florida State -6.5
