Consistent with years gone by, any preferred team in a game will be UNDERLINED or in RED.
Monday, January 7[SUP]th[/SUP]
CFB National Championship Game
Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, CA
Clemson (+6) vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET ESPN
A strange thing happened on my way to counting chickens of a 26-14 ATS Bowl Season with ratings on every game. Ohio State left the backdoor wide open for Washington to crawl in to get the cover in a game the Buckeyes controlled with a lead of 28-3 with 12 minutes remaining. That was one of few downers in the 15-3 ATS finish to the Bowl Season this past weekend. With the CFB thinking in fine form, I look to close out the season in style with this selection on the Cats as Dogs. It is well documented that this is the 4[SUP]th[/SUP]consecutive season these two will meet in the Playoffs. Saban holds a 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS in the meetings including last year’s Semifinal 24-6 victory. That was a rare post season failure for Dabo who had entered that contest with an 8-0 ATS Bowl and Playoff record since 2012. One of the major edges that Bama holds over many of its opponents is the fear factor presented by their persona. If familiarity breeds contempt, the revenge factor will have a major influence on the outcome of this game. Clearly, Swinney has no fear of the Big Stage and is quite possibly even more motivated (if possible) because he is an Alabama Alum. Nit picking from the superlative statistics across the board from each of these two would be a fruitless task. Plenty of respect for Tide QB Tua but unless Tigers Frosh QB Lawrence suddenly become infected with the deer in the headlights syndrome, Tua may not be the better signal caller on the field. This TD impost is the same as it would have been opening night. Some of that, both then and now, is the continuing over ration for the perception of Alabama’s excellence. In recent years, however, Clemson has proven they are the equal of the Tide. With a +107 AFP for the year to a +50 AFP for the Crimson Tide, there is further reason to believe this impost remains bloated. No surprise to this bureau if Clemson wins the game outright.
NFL Playoffs
Saturday, January 5[SUP]th[/SUP]
Wildcard Playoffs
Houston Texans (-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts 4:35 PM ET ESPN
The Colts had “NO GOOD LUCK” in 2017 as their signal caller recuperated from injury. With his return and the addition of new HC Reich, (former Philly OC), the Colts transformed from an offense that averaged 16/285 to one that averaged 27/386. They punched the final Playoff ticket of the season last Sunday night with their 33-17 win at Tennessee in which they outrushed the Titans 158-93. It was a similar type of turnaround season for Houston who had drifted to an identical 4-12 SU record last year when injuries struck across the board. It looked like a potential repeat of that type of season when the Texans began the year 0-3 SU, ATS. Beginning with their Game #4 OT win at Indy, however, fortunes began to turn for Houston. With QB Watson returning to health at the controls, Houston reeled off a 9 game winning streak before the Colts got their revenge on this field on December 9[SUP]th[/SUP] with a 24-21 victory. Key to the Houston turnaround was an improved defense that went from allowing 27 PPG last year to just 20 PPG this season. Hard to deny the 9-1 SU finish of the Colts (only loss a mysterious 6-0 shutout at Jax). But the superior Houston ground game, which runs an average of 30 times a game for a 126-83 overland edge, combined with a home field where Houston has lost to only Indy in the last 3 months, makes this the odds on spot for Houston to garner the victory.
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Dallas Cowboys 8:15 PM ET FOX
This is the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] of 2 Playoff games which features 9-7 SU squads from last year who were winning teams last year but did not make the Playoffs (Detroit was the only team who failed in that role this season). It is also a matchup of teams who enter off consecutive victories to finish the year with 10-6 SU records. When these teams met earlier this season in Seattle, the Seahawks used a +3 net TO margin to garner a 24-13 victory (despite being outrushed 113-66). Last week’s 27-24 squeaker vs. Arizona, closer than the stats would suggest, as Seattle outrushed Arizona 182-85. Dallas, meanwhile, with their own narrow victory vs. NYG was outrushed 143-51. That Seattle dominance at the point of attack has been consistent through the latter part of the season with running numbers in reverse order of 182, 210, 168, 214, 168, 173, 273, 154, 176, 155, 190 and 171 dating back to Week #3. Respect the own powerful ground game of the Cowboys which averages 123 RYPG. The Seahawks, however, appear unstoppable overland and with edges on the sideline in Carroll over Garrett and at the signal callers spot with Wilson over Prescott, I will call for the upset in Big D tonight.
Sunday, January 6[SUP]th[/SUP]
Wildcard Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs. LA Chargers 1:05 PM ET CBS
In a major statistical anomaly, Baltimore survived the pressure of “win and in” last week with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland. That narrow margin came DESPITE THE FACT THEY HELD A 296-50 OVERLAND EDGE AND HAD A +2 NET TO MARGIN. That combination will consistently result in an over 90% chance for a pointspread victory. NOT FOR US LAST SUNDAY! When these two met earlier this season, Baltimore was dominant over the Chargers with a 159-51 overland edge. Respect is given to the fact the Chargers have been solid all season behind the leadership of QB Rivers and HC Lynn. Baltimore, however, has been a hungry Playoff team since the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] week in August. They shifted it into another gear since the insertion of QB Jackson following their bye week. Since that time, they have gone 6-1 SU rushing in reverse order for 296, 159, 242, 198, 207, 242 and 265. Along with the West to East time change for the Chargers in a 1:00 PM ET start, it will be Baltimore all day long.
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Chicago Bears 4:40 PM ET NBC
Last year, the Bears went 5-11 SU making it their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] consecutive season with 6 or less wins. Enter new HC Nagy (former OC at KC) and the emergence of QB Trubisky. Along with a defense that allowed just 18/299 including only 80 RPG on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears stormed to a 9-1 SU, ATS finish. That included shutting the door on the season for the Division rival Vikings last week when they outrushed Minn 160-63 in a 24-10 win. Major question here is if the Bears will be caught in the Peter Principle of having reached their goal of the Playoffs after such a recent history of failure. Philly is clearly at the other end of the spectrum. A magical season all came together for the Eagles last year with a 16-3 SU record culminating in a 41-33 Super Bowl win against New England. Much like last season, QB Foles has stepped in for injured QB Wentz in leading the Eagles to a 5-1 SU stretch drive which climaxed with a “win and in” scenario last Sunday with a 24-0 whitewash of the Redskins. This year, it is clearly the Bears who are going through that magical season. At this price point, however, the Eagles will surely feel disrespected and thus motivated to continue their late season surge behind last year’s Super Bowl MVP. Do not expect the Defending Champs to go quietly.
Following a Holiday hiatus, Roger Larson returns to grace these pages with his NFL Playoff Teaser of the Week. As always, win or lose, we welcome his wit and charm to these pages.
BONGO'S 6-POINT TEASER FOR PLAYOFF WEEK ONE--
SEATTLE +8 1/2 AND PHILLY +12
If I win this one I will be back with one more pick. If I lose I will be out behind the barn trying to warm up over a winter fire and drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon with my neighbor Grover Stump. Grover doesn't have a TV and thinks football is stupid. He says, "You hurt your knee for life and how you gonna work the farm? Huh?" I don't argue with Grover, especially after we have been pounding PBR's for 3/4 hours.
Even though the line indicates that Sea/Dal are roughly equal in talent I believe the Seabags and their hysterical coach, Pistol Pete Carol, will prevail. Why do I believe this? I have no idea. I just like Seattle to win the game and I would take +3 in a heartbeat if it ever shows up. Am I making this pick because I dislike the car dealer owner of the Cowgirls? Maybe. What is there to like about him unless you are a Dallas' area plastic surgeon or maybe a part-time hooker/cheerleader?
The Eaglets had a disastrous season after their magic SB win but they sneaked in here (thanks to the hapless Viqueens) by winning 5 of their last 6 and getting in the playoffs with 7 losses! I am going to follow their momentum against this very strong Bears' outfit and look for a tight game. If I get crushed, I have been crushed before. (Usually by a woman.).
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