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Zcode NFL Public Fades - Week 5

Sweep! Another 3-0 ATS in Week 4 which improves our YTD to 10-2. Lets see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 5.The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners
by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/4) so always

keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.

BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI

The Bills are coming off an impressive win over Atlanta and the public has taken notice.
This is a potential letdown spot for Buffalo after a big win and now having to travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals quietly got their first win of the season
and are in a great spot at home to give a big effort. Cincinnati -2.5 (5Dimes)


GREEN BAY @ DALLAS

Dallas laid a huge egg at home last week and the betting public has jumped off the band wagon.
While Green Bay has looked solid, they have played the Bengals and Bears in back to back weeks so the Cowboys will be a big upgrade in opponents.
Dallas, after a bad loss at home, will be hungry for a win and we should see a great effort from them. Dallas -1 (5Dimes)

KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON

The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the league and the public is all aboard the KC train.
Winning on the road is hard in the NFL and, with a short week to prepare, this could be the week Kansas City picks up their first loss.
Houston, and Deshaun Watson, had a breakout win last week and will be riding a wave of momentum at home once again. Houston +1 (BetOnline)
 

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Bad week for tout sheets-Pointwise and Red Sheet seem to be doing the best. CFB Advisior-did not have a winner. Once again-theses come out at Westgate at 6 on Sunday night-Fresno State opened at 14.5-sharps got on it moved it to 16.5-by 8. Next day it was 17 and then 17,5-when we got tout sheet-it was 17-but CFB will count it as a winner. Lesson learned-in future when number is on 3-7-10-14-17-21-28-buy the halve point!!!!!!!!
 

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Less is more - one bet a week strategy

Bad week for tout sheets-Pointwise and Red Sheet seem to be doing the best. CFB Advisior-did not have a winner. Once again-theses come out at Westgate at 6 on Sunday night-Fresno State opened at 14.5-sharps got on it moved it to 16.5-by 8. Next day it was 17 and then 17,5-when we got tout sheet-it was 17-but CFB will count it as a winner. Lesson learned-in future when number is on 3-7-10-14-17-21-28-buy the halve point!!!!!!!!

Less is more I think. My one bet this week Beerman is a big bet on the Packers/Cowboys OVER (the number is currently 53), the top rated pick this week in Victor King's Totals Tipsheet .

I have been suggesting a betting strategy of large percentage of the bankroll bets on one game a week, and that is Victor's top newsletter pick. That pick lost last week but he is 3-1 on these picks so far this year which is 75%. This week the pick is Packers/Cowboys OVER. Now if this strategy fails, we probably should shut down this thread as a service to the betting public :):):

From Mendoza Line Tracking:
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (3-1) (these were 13-5 last season)
2* (3-4-1)
 

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Bad week for tout sheets-Pointwise and Red Sheet seem to be doing the best. CFB Advisior-did not have a winner. Once again-theses come out at Westgate at 6 on Sunday night-Fresno State opened at 14.5-sharps got on it moved it to 16.5-by 8. Next day it was 17 and then 17,5-when we got tout sheet-it was 17-but CFB will count it as a winner. Lesson learned-in future when number is on 3-7-10-14-17-21-28-buy the halve point!!!!!!!!


Right around midseason in CfB tipsheets typically take a nose dive and the good cappers that make up the tip sheets make adjustments. Sports Report Winning Points have underperformed this year while Gold Sheet has over performed in CFB but underperformed in the NFL, Playbook the past 3 years is a great fade material in CFB/NFL/NCAA hoops & NBA.

Always use your own capping method and compare to the tip sheet picks, it may help you become a better capper, when to fade and when to play.

GLE!! Thanks for posting!!
 

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Bad week for tout sheets-Pointwise and Red Sheet seem to be doing the best. CFB Advisior-did not have a winner. Once again-theses come out at Westgate at 6 on Sunday night-Fresno State opened at 14.5-sharps got on it moved it to 16.5-by 8. Next day it was 17 and then 17,5-when we got tout sheet-it was 17-but CFB will count it as a winner. Lesson learned-in future when number is on 3-7-10-14-17-21-28-buy the halve point!!!!!!!!

Beerman.. I agree with usually regretting not buying the half point more times than not. As Buzz Kill will verify is that we have to use the line/spread that is listed in the newsletter for tracking purposes tho.. but real life results of course depend on where and when you place the bet.

Red sheet had the only positive week that I've seen at 3-1-1 on cfb picks.. now he had auburn -21 which I know many books had it at -21.5 so that could've been a loss for some folks. but on here its a win.

You also mentioned point wise.. they did not have a good week at all.

5) Air Force +7.5 vs Navy: Won +$500
5) Bama -25.5 vs TxAM: Lost -$550
4) SMU +5.5 v Houston: Lost -$440
4) VA Tech -16 vs BC: Lost -$440
3) Northern Illinois -23 vs Kent State: Lost -$330
2) Auburn -21 vs Ole Miss: Push $0
1) Georgia -16.5 vs Vandy: Won +$100
1) UCF -16 vs Cincy: Won +$100

$(1,060.0)


Need a good day in the NFL or MLB.. somehow.. some way .. Good Luck everyone!

check out 'the Real deal' for baseball picks!
 

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Your doing that wrong-his number 1 picks is his best picks-Central Flordia and Georgia best picks. What i do with pointwise-2 number 1 picks i do-then -then i put less on Auburn and Northern Illinios-never take the next four-last week on top 4 he went 3-1-this was another winning week for me with Pointwise.
 

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I am having a good week-i went with top 4 on Pointwise-a plus-on Baseball-i am 5-1 this week. Got a big future on Dodgers plus 450 to win World Series and Got a future on Indians to win world series at plus 550. Last year i had two weeks before season a future on Cubs-got it at 9-1 at Venition
 

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Your doing that wrong-his number 1 picks is his best picks-Central Flordia and Georgia best picks. What i do with pointwise-2 number 1 picks i do-then -then i put less on Auburn and Northern Illinios-never take the next four-last week on top 4 he went 3-1-this was another winning week for me with Pointwise.

ok if you isolate that only..pointwise "1 picks" this year are 6-5
 

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Buzz-having a good week-i am at Westgate-took your advice -put 500 on over Dallas Game-Hope your right!!!!!
 

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Thank you buzz!!!!

Its over 52

Well yeah!

2ldvtbs.jpg
 

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Lawrance went 3-1. I can't remeber the last time that guy made a profit in NFL.

Screw capping games just fade Lawrance all year in NFL and you will make money for sure.

Zcode 2-1 for CFB and 1-2 for NFL, that GB last seconds TD killed a good weekend for them.
 

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Newsletter Tracking Through October 8

Mendoza Line cumulative year to date record, through October 8:

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO
11* (1-4-1) (pushed with Auburn -21)
10* (12-11)
Totals (5-5)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-4-1)
4* (4-2)
3* (3-3)
Upset pick (1-4-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-4)
Awesome Angle (4-4)
Incredible Stat (3-3)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (went 3-0 this week)
5* (3-2)
4* (2-3)
3* (1-4)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (5-5) (one 1* pick counted as "no action" as the UCF game was called early)
2* (5-0-1)
3* (2-4)
4* (3-9)
5* (8-4)

Pointwise NFL
3* (1-3) (Chicago +3.5 pending for Monday night)
4* (3-7)
5* (4-6)

PowerSweep NCAA
4* (1-4)
3* (6-6)
2* (9-3)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-4)
Tech Play of the Week (1-3)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-2)
Situational Play of the Week (1-4)
Series Play of the Week (2-2)

PowerSweep NFL
4* (4-1)
3* (3-2)
2* (1-4)
NFL System play (3-2)
4* Pro Angle (1-1)

Powers Picks NCAA
3* (2-9)
2* (8-8-1)
1* (1-1)

Powers Picks NFL
3* (1-3)
2* (5-5)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (1-0)
NCAA Best Bets (8-13)
NFL Best Bets (6-4)

Red Sheet
89* (5-4-1)
88* (10-9-1)

Winning Points (went 0-4 overall this week)
NCAA 4* (0-6)
NCAA 3* (4-1-1)
NFL 4* (1-4)
NFL 3* (2-3)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (went 4-0 overall this week)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (4-1)
MTI 4* (3-2)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (2-0)
SBB 4* (2-6)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-1)
2* (3-5-1) (Minn/Chi Under 40 pending for Monday night)

PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (6-9-2)
NFL 4* (1-4)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (15-8)
NFL Key Releases (5-10)

Last Year's Newsletter Records
 

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Good news on the NFL front. I've been keeping track of VSiN's NFL Consensus and Matt Youmans is 33-15-2 (14-10-1 O/U and 19-5-1 against the spread). When him and the 'Power Rating' have the same pick the record is 19-3-1 (8-2-1 O/U and 11-1 against the spread). I will continue to keep track of their plays and post them here as well.
 

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Good news on the NFL front. I've been keeping track of VSiN's NFL Consensus and Matt Youmans is 33-15-2 (14-10-1 O/U and 19-5-1 against the spread). When him and the 'Power Rating' have the same pick the record is 19-3-1 (8-2-1 O/U and 11-1 against the spread). I will continue to keep track of their plays and post them here as well.

thanks, good info. Decent newsletter they have going.
 

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<body id="cke_pastebin">Zcode NBA Future Bet: Boston Celtics


The 2017-18 NBA season tips off on October 17th. On opening night, the Cleveland Cavaliers will travel to Beantown to play the Boston Celtics, while the NBA champion Golden State Warriors will battle Houston.
The NBA offseason saw a number of players move from the Eastern Conference to the Western Conference. The teams out west have strengthened while the east has become weaker due to the leaving talent. However, there is one team that is the exception.
[h=1]Boston Celtics are the exception[/h]While teams like the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks lost players to the Western Conference, the Boston Celtics were the exception. Danny Ainge re-tooled the team during the offseason by signing No. 3 NBA Draft pick Jayson Tatum. Ainge then traded the team’s best player, Isaiah Thomas, to Cleveland for Kyrie Irving. The team also traded away Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley.
Eight other players were not retained, including former first round draft pick Kelly Olynyk. However, the team made a huge splash by signing Gordon Hayward for max money. He became one of the few big stars to go from the west to the east.
The combination of Irving and Hayward have many dreaming of an NBA Finals appearance for the Celtics. But the question remains, is the team worth the hype?
[h=1]Hype this![/h]With all of the moves the Celtics made in the offseason, it can be forgiven for bettors to think Boston was awful in 2016-17. That couldn’t be further from the truth, as the Celtics were top seed in the Easter Conference playoffs. The team finished above LeBron and the Cavs, who tanked late in the season.
The Boston Celtics starting line-up should be Irving, Brown, Morris, Hayward and Horford when the season tips off. A strong starting five to say the least. Boston is -400 to win the NBA’s Atlantic Division, +240 to win the Eastern Conference and +800 to win the NBA title.
Yes, sportsbooks have jumped on the team’s bandwagon. But Boston must still prove it can win games on the court.
[h=1]The poor Atlantic Division[/h]The Celtics will have competition from Toronto in the Atlantic as the team has made a few upgrades. Overall, the Raptors have stayed the course with the team they had last season.
As for the rest of the Atlantic Division? The division is lacking talented teams and elite NBA players. Philadelphia is being tipped by many to have a good season. The 76ers are at odds of +750 to win the Atlantic, but there is little to expect the team to outplay the Celtics right now.
As for the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets, both teams will bring up the rear of the division. Neither has been good in recent time. Both teams have holes that make the playoffs a bit of a stretch this season.
Sportsbooks have the Celtics at +120 to win over 55.5 games. The team is -150 to win under 55.5 games. Boston won 53 games last season, fourth most in the Association.
The Celtics are an improved team on paper with Irving and Hayward. However, King LeBron and the Cavs are still the team to beat in the east. After the NBA’s opening night, we will know a little more about Boston’s chances to go the distance.





</body>
 

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Thanks Mendoza Line!

Mendoza Line cumulative year to date record, through October 9:

Updated to include MNF and to fix two errors


Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO
11* (1-4-1) (pushed with Auburn -21)
10* (12-11)
Totals (5-5)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (1-4-1)
4* (4-2)
3* (3-3)
Upset pick (1-4-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (4-4)
Awesome Angle (4-4)
Incredible Stat (3-3)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL (went 3-0 this week)
5* (3-2)
4* (2-3)
3* (1-4)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (5-5) (one 1* pick counted as "no action" as the UCF game was called early)
2* (5-0-1)
3* (2-4)
4* (3-9)
5* (8-4)

Pointwise NFL
3* (2-3)
4* (3-7)
5* (4-6)

PowerSweep NCAA
4* (1-4)
3* (6-6)
2* (9-3)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-4)
Tech Play of the Week (1-3)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-2)
Situational Play of the Week (1-4)
Series Play of the Week (2-2)

PowerSweep NFL
4* (4-1)
3* (3-2)
2* (1-4)
NFL System play (3-2)
4* Pro Angle (1-1)

Powers Picks NCAA
3* (2-9)
2* (8-8-1)
1* (1-1)

Powers Picks NFL
3* (1-3)
2* (5-5)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (1-0)
NCAA Best Bets (8-13)
NFL Best Bets (4-6)

Red Sheet
89* (5-4-1)
88* (10-9-1)

Winning Points (went 0-4 overall this week)
NCAA 4* (0-6)
NCAA 3* (4-1-1)
NFL 4* (1-4)
NFL 3* (2-3)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (went 4-0 overall this week)
MTI 5* (0-0)
MTI 4.5* (4-1)
MTI 4* (3-2)
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (2-0)
SBB 4* (2-6)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-1)
2* (4-5-1)

PowerPlays
NCAA 4.5* (5-10-2)
NFL 4* (1-4)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (15-8)
NFL Key Releases (5-10)

Last Year's Newsletter Records
 

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