PLAYBOOK TUE/WED MAC WRITE-UPS
Tuesday, November 14
EASTERN MICHIGAN over Akron by 1
The MAC-a-thon continues! While we can’t offer up a 6-pack of games in two days like we did last week, we can conjure up five contests that will go a long way in determining the final order of finish in the conference. As in years gone by, Akron is in the running for landing in the MAC basement, but the Zips still have a shot at avoiding last place if hapless Kent State continues its losing ways or if Joe Moorhead’s team can bag a win in one of its final two games. The ‘winning’ part sounds like a tall order considering the 2-8 / 1-5 Zips are basically going through the motions at this stage of the season. However, Eastern Michigan owns just one more conference win than Akron and the 4-6 Eagles are the only team in the nation that has yet to outgain an opponent, going
0-10 ITS (In The Stats). We look at them like the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL – they get pushed all around the field, yet somehow find a way to stay relevant. Still, to lay points with a team of this caliber is like hoping you won’t catch COVID while visiting a hospital wing filled with COVID patients. We realize they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last eleven MAC contests, but the two losses came in the last two games. Don’t consider that as a recommendation for the Zips, though, who have been held to 14 points or less in five of the last six games and are on a 1-4 ATS slide in series meetings with EMU. Decisions, decisions. In the end, we’ll abide by our
‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX fade on the Ypsilanti Eagles and advise you to take it or leave it.
Toledo over BOWLING GREEN by 14
How far has Toledo run away from the other teams in this year’s MAC West race? By the time those other five squads made it to the launch pad, the Rockets had already blasted off and achieved sufficient speed to leave earth orbit. In fact, Toledo is one of only five remaining teams in the nation that have outgained every opponent this season. As a result, the Rockets are winning the stats +125 net yards per game, while BGSU is losing them -142 net yards per game. So, we ask, do you want to be on the short end of a game with the Projectiles holding a +267 net yards per game advantage? We didn’t think so. Toledo head coach Jason Candle has won five of his seven meetings with Bowling Green on the scoreboard, but he’ll put special emphasis on tonight’s contest considering the Falcons upset the Zips 42-35 last year, denying the Rockets their first double-digit winning season since 2014. The BeeGees are also a jive-talkin’
1-7 ATS when coming off a double-digit SUATS win which, by the way, was their bowl-eligible clinching 6th win of the season. Tough to ask Toledo to close out the campaign with back-to-back road wins and covers but the Rockets are certainly capable of running the table. You know what to do.
Western Michigan over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 1
You’ll find both of these teams on our BOWL RUSH list on page 4 as each need a pair of wins to gain bowl eligibility, meaning the loser of this contest becomes a dead man walking. Having been stuck on four wins for almost a month, Northern Illinois can no longer afford lifeless efforts like their previous two games, both losses, as the Huskies were consistently victimized by drive-killing penalties, critical turnovers and a defense that could not get off the field on 3rd down. Against Ball State, Northern Illinois blew a 24-7 lead to lose in overtime and a week earlier against Central Michigan, the sled dogs were whipped from the get-go, trailing 21-0 at the half while managing 15 first downs in the game compared to the Chippewas’ 26. All the while NIU head coach Thomas Hammock has worn the befuddled expression of someone who just woke up from a year-long coma. We all know the Huskies are in their comfort zone when taking points rather than laying them: an
0-9 ATS mark as chalk of late, and an
0-8 ATS log on Tuesdays confirms our thoughts. Meanwhile, Western Michigan is at least riding a 2-0 SUATS streak and they bring a bawdy
10-1 ATS mark in this battle when both teams are coming off a MACtion contest. The bottom line is we don’t want NIU tonight. Neither should you.
Wednesday, November 15
MIAMI OHIO over Buffalo by 14
The 3-7 Bulls will be headed out to pasture in another week and we have little to no interest of putting them in front of the best team in the MAC East tonight. Miami Ohio has not quite clinched the division title yet, needing just one more win against Buffalo or pitiful Ball State (also 3-7), but only a total collapse will keep the RedHawks away from a showdown with Toledo for the conference championship. When it comes to recent ATS history Miami holds all the cards, currently riding an
8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS streak, and bringing a salty
8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS streak on Wednesdays into the fray. Difficult to take that on with Buffy’s money-burning 2-8 ATS mark in games coming off a SUATS loss. Lay it or leave it.
Central Michigan over OHIO by 1
Though Ohio is not completely out of the running in the MAC East versus leader Miami Ohio, the Bobcats must win here and next week against Akron, then hope the RedHawks stumble against both Buffalo and Ball State – not very likely (Miami owns the tiebreaker against Ohio, as the Bobcats have already taken it on the chin against the Hawks earlier this season). CMU is also under pressure tonight, residing in our 5-win list of BOWL RUSH teams, and the Chippewas will have a better shot at springing the upset versus Ohio here as opposed to next week’s season-ender against mighty Toledo. The Chips do sport a nifty 17-3-1 ATS record on Wednesdays to boot, including 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS away. We also like that the CMU coaching staff has lit a fire under the running game, as they’ve churned out 544 rushing yards in the last two outings while gaining 6.5 yards per carry. Should that ground assault continue, it will be a strength-versus-strength matchup as Ohio’s stalwart rush defense allows just 95 YPG and 3.3 yards per carry. The deal breaker appears to be the Bobcats horrid 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS skid in this series of late, so we’ll take as many points as we can get and back the Chippewas here.