I think Gold Sheet and Red Sheet are the only newsletters that posted winning records last year.
And I believe this year NFL picks by GS are 7-3. Don't think anyone else is close to having a handle
on the NFL this year. Marc Lawrence and Sports Reporter, so far on track with NCAA, nothing to
show in NFL, at least not significantly. GS is certainly worth a glance for pro's.
And I believe this year NFL picks by GS are 7-3. Don't think anyone else is close to having a handle
on the NFL this year. Marc Lawrence and Sports Reporter, so far on track with NCAA, nothing to
show in NFL, at least not significantly. GS is certainly worth a glance for pro's.
Inside the Pressbox NFL Week 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Inside the Pressbox CFB Week 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox NFL + NCAA
Good records last year:
Gold Sheet NCAA (36-22-0)
Sports Reporter NCAA (33-20-0)
Powers Picks NFL 2* (28-13-1)
Playbook NCAA 5* (9-4-1)
Bad records last year:
Power Sweep regular season NCAA 4* (3-9-0)
Power Sweep 4* Pro Angle NFL (2-13-0)
Totals Tipsheet 3* (10-22-0)
Winning Points NFL 4* (5-13-0)
Power Plays NCAA 4.5* (16-24-1)
Pointwise regular season NFL 4* (13-22-1)
FYI, Winning Points records last season:
NCAA 4* (10-4-0)
NCAA 3* (8-6-0)
NFL 4* (5-13-0)
NFL 3* (6-10-2)
Recap
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Red Sheet - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.1254892/page-16#post-14275444
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Records, this year - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.1254892/page-15#post-14275035
Records, last year - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.1254892/page-17#post-14276969
American Turf Club #1478.pdf
drive.google.com
Inside the Pressbox CFB Week 4.pdf
drive.google.com
Inside the Pressbox NFL Week 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Issue #5.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Midweek Alert Issue #1.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Wise Guys Contest Report #3.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise Issue #4.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep Issue #5.pdf
drive.google.com
Powers' Ratings CFB Week Four Issue.pdf
drive.google.com
Sports Reporter Issue #4.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #3.pdf
drive.google.com
Winning Points Issue #4.pdf
drive.google.com
Records, last year - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.1254892/page-17#post-14276969
Newsletter writers learned long ago to offer various types of bets. 5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars and then promote their best
results among those stars to the public. And there is a logic to it. Some games you simply have a wider projected
spread than the line you are offered, for example. Or maybe it's that one team is far more likely to run a point differential
to "higher than reasonably necessary" to win the game (as in college football) But in reality these differences aren't as
significant as one believes.
The other sleazy promotion is (assume this is true) "The last three weeks we've gone 23-10" or similar.
You wouldn't believe how unimpressive that is. It literally means almost nothing.
Here are a quick few things that have shown some real life results in smarter betting.
If you predict the flip a (fair) coin 7 times what are the chances you will go in forecasting the results each time. The chance of going
7-0 is 1/126. That's the same chance as going 0-7. Yet, in almost all cases neither is more than luck.
If you predict the flip of a coin 7 times what are the chance you will predict the right results 4 or more times?
It's 50%. Exactly 50%. The chances of getting 3 or fewer is exactly 50%. i.e. 4-3 means nothing.
What about the newsletter that was 0 - 10? Someone wrote, "don't fade the newsletter picks." That was absolutely good advice.
The chances of going 10 - 0 is 1/128. The chances of going 0 - 10 is 1/128. The chances of going at least 7-3? About 18%.
The Gold Sheet was 7 - 3 in NFL, going into this week (I think). If all games were random their chances of being 7-3 or better is
only 18%.
What we don't know yet about the Gold Sheet is whether that 7 - 3 means anything or not. We have to know what amount of
luck (randomness) is in the result. I assume it's 100% luck until we can do the math on what the chances of being able to do that
the next two weeks are, and then the next two weeks and on and on.
What if a newsletter releases two 7 * picks this week? (Maybe they believe they have a 70% chance of being right on their picks, who knows) What are the odds they will get BOTH 7 * picks correct in real life? Let's say they REALLY are right and there is a 70% chance for each game What are the chances they will with both wins? .7 x .7 = .49. So it's about 50/50 they'll win both which means they lost money for their subscriber.
HERE'S WHAT WE REALLY WANT TO KNOW: What are the chances that a newsletter releases ten picks with their highest rating
this year. 10. What are the chances that they will go 60% or better against the spread at the beginning of the season.
Those games are the same as flipping coins until we have more information. "I get about 60% every year."
Yeah, they don't. The odds of getting 60+% on those 10 picks promised and paid for at the beginning of the year, is almost 21%
BUT WAIT? What are the odds of going greater than 60% with 100 picks?
It's the same percentage right? Same thing?
No. It's < 3%.
Not many sports services will release 100 picks to bet on, (the release just their best bets) because they are fairly certain they won't hit 60+% and their clients won't renew.
So why pick up the newsletters?
It's not in their predictions for most. It's in the reading. You might get an idea. You might find out that going 4th and 1 which you intuitively knew for 30 years before there was analytics ...well it's a pretty good idea for most teams.
You can also figure which newsletters might be able to offer good handicapping advice.
Example 1) Home field in the NFL is worth 3 points (or whatever). It's not. This service is a dis-service.
Example 2) Home field varies from about - 2 to +6 in the NFL and the average is around 1.5-2.0 on any given day. They have done
some basic math and figured out that the Cowboys and Bills really have an advantage at home...and that other teams are likely to
worse simply because they are at home. And we actually know these numbers to be pretty accurate, for this year and this part of the season.
Example 3) Some refs will see pass interference and not call it. That's worth knowing who those refs are and what ref team they are on.
Someone who has figured out just the HFA chart has a newsletter that might be worth reading. JUST knowing the correct HFA
and shifting the public line accordingly will be enough to break even for most bettors.
The odds of having a streak (good or bad) are much much easier and meaningless. Almost every newsletter should have streaks of 60 or 70% in a season. (Save the math for another day)
I've lurked in this forum for quite awhile and really appreciate buzzkill and the folks who post the newsletter results. I take
that info and compare it with the various rating systems that have historically performed well (about 56%) like Massey Ratings
and a few others.
BTW So far in college football this year, looking at almost 30 services that pick all or most of the games, there are ZERO that are at break even with the line.
Keep posting those results. It's really interesting when you add up all the newsletter results and combine them into one final win/loss record.
results among those stars to the public. And there is a logic to it. Some games you simply have a wider projected
spread than the line you are offered, for example. Or maybe it's that one team is far more likely to run a point differential
to "higher than reasonably necessary" to win the game (as in college football) But in reality these differences aren't as
significant as one believes.
The other sleazy promotion is (assume this is true) "The last three weeks we've gone 23-10" or similar.
You wouldn't believe how unimpressive that is. It literally means almost nothing.
Here are a quick few things that have shown some real life results in smarter betting.
If you predict the flip a (fair) coin 7 times what are the chances you will go in forecasting the results each time. The chance of going
7-0 is 1/126. That's the same chance as going 0-7. Yet, in almost all cases neither is more than luck.
If you predict the flip of a coin 7 times what are the chance you will predict the right results 4 or more times?
It's 50%. Exactly 50%. The chances of getting 3 or fewer is exactly 50%. i.e. 4-3 means nothing.
What about the newsletter that was 0 - 10? Someone wrote, "don't fade the newsletter picks." That was absolutely good advice.
The chances of going 10 - 0 is 1/128. The chances of going 0 - 10 is 1/128. The chances of going at least 7-3? About 18%.
The Gold Sheet was 7 - 3 in NFL, going into this week (I think). If all games were random their chances of being 7-3 or better is
only 18%.
What we don't know yet about the Gold Sheet is whether that 7 - 3 means anything or not. We have to know what amount of
luck (randomness) is in the result. I assume it's 100% luck until we can do the math on what the chances of being able to do that
the next two weeks are, and then the next two weeks and on and on.
What if a newsletter releases two 7 * picks this week? (Maybe they believe they have a 70% chance of being right on their picks, who knows) What are the odds they will get BOTH 7 * picks correct in real life? Let's say they REALLY are right and there is a 70% chance for each game What are the chances they will with both wins? .7 x .7 = .49. So it's about 50/50 they'll win both which means they lost money for their subscriber.
HERE'S WHAT WE REALLY WANT TO KNOW: What are the chances that a newsletter releases ten picks with their highest rating
this year. 10. What are the chances that they will go 60% or better against the spread at the beginning of the season.
Those games are the same as flipping coins until we have more information. "I get about 60% every year."
Yeah, they don't. The odds of getting 60+% on those 10 picks promised and paid for at the beginning of the year, is almost 21%
BUT WAIT? What are the odds of going greater than 60% with 100 picks?
It's the same percentage right? Same thing?
No. It's < 3%.
Not many sports services will release 100 picks to bet on, (the release just their best bets) because they are fairly certain they won't hit 60+% and their clients won't renew.
So why pick up the newsletters?
It's not in their predictions for most. It's in the reading. You might get an idea. You might find out that going 4th and 1 which you intuitively knew for 30 years before there was analytics ...well it's a pretty good idea for most teams.
You can also figure which newsletters might be able to offer good handicapping advice.
Example 1) Home field in the NFL is worth 3 points (or whatever). It's not. This service is a dis-service.
Example 2) Home field varies from about - 2 to +6 in the NFL and the average is around 1.5-2.0 on any given day. They have done
some basic math and figured out that the Cowboys and Bills really have an advantage at home...and that other teams are likely to
worse simply because they are at home. And we actually know these numbers to be pretty accurate, for this year and this part of the season.
Example 3) Some refs will see pass interference and not call it. That's worth knowing who those refs are and what ref team they are on.
Someone who has figured out just the HFA chart has a newsletter that might be worth reading. JUST knowing the correct HFA
and shifting the public line accordingly will be enough to break even for most bettors.
The odds of having a streak (good or bad) are much much easier and meaningless. Almost every newsletter should have streaks of 60 or 70% in a season. (Save the math for another day)
I've lurked in this forum for quite awhile and really appreciate buzzkill and the folks who post the newsletter results. I take
that info and compare it with the various rating systems that have historically performed well (about 56%) like Massey Ratings
and a few others.
BTW So far in college football this year, looking at almost 30 services that pick all or most of the games, there are ZERO that are at break even with the line.
Keep posting those results. It's really interesting when you add up all the newsletter results and combine them into one final win/loss record.
Really good info Dr. Kevin, and we can take this chat over to the college FB forum as to not clog the newsletter forum...use the newsletter publications for INFORMATION...not ATS picks. Only thing I would add to what you are saying is this: I firmly believe that if you know football; like really know the game of football and the nuances within it, either from playing at the college level or higher, scouting, studying, betting, etc....you should be able to pick out stats, situations, tendencies, series history, etc. and improve the odds in your favor greater than 50/50. If you know what you are doing, 50/50 isn't the benchmark. In otherwords, over 100 plays I know I am going to go 55-57% ATS or slightly higher, so my 50/50 is not going 50%, it is more like 50/50 on if I go over or under 57%...Ive Moved the math in my favor substancially. How do I do this.
by betting every sport I can and being in expert in hockey, NFL, MLb...nope...JOKE. ITs by avoiding all of those leagues. I dont (I mean DO NOT) bet NFL, or MLB, NBA, hockey, golf, cricket, soccer, F1, tennis, horse racing, etc...I DO NOT DO IT. I focus 100% of my time and attention on the college leagues, spending countless hours digesting, formulating, line tracking, watching injuries, beat reporters, coach weekly pressers, practice performance, tendencies, blah blah bllah. and I have Strict money management where my bankroll consists of enough money for 70-100 "units" and 75% + of my bets are "ONE UNIT" 7-10% are 2 unit, 7-10% are .5-.75unit...maybe 3-5% of my best are 3-4 units. nothing above that.
specialization, being in the trenches doing the grunt work, and money management can move the odds in your favor to greater than 50/50...there is NO OTHER WAY, including fading or playing the newsletters.
by betting every sport I can and being in expert in hockey, NFL, MLb...nope...JOKE. ITs by avoiding all of those leagues. I dont (I mean DO NOT) bet NFL, or MLB, NBA, hockey, golf, cricket, soccer, F1, tennis, horse racing, etc...I DO NOT DO IT. I focus 100% of my time and attention on the college leagues, spending countless hours digesting, formulating, line tracking, watching injuries, beat reporters, coach weekly pressers, practice performance, tendencies, blah blah bllah. and I have Strict money management where my bankroll consists of enough money for 70-100 "units" and 75% + of my bets are "ONE UNIT" 7-10% are 2 unit, 7-10% are .5-.75unit...maybe 3-5% of my best are 3-4 units. nothing above that.
specialization, being in the trenches doing the grunt work, and money management can move the odds in your favor to greater than 50/50...there is NO OTHER WAY, including fading or playing the newsletters.
