POINTWISE RED SHEET
Wisconsin 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00 EST) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 11, and is still minus 11. We
have been a bit leery of backing the Badgers over the last season or so, due to the fact that
their defense hasn't held up its part of the bargain, allowing 28 ppg in 10 lined games previous
to last week, when they pitched a shutout over the always dangerous Boilers of Purdue.
But it was only a matter of time, as they've held their last 4 foes to 15, 8, 16, & 8 FDs, & that
includes holding OhioSt to 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs, at Columbus. Hoosiers have had their
moments, but "D" is crumbling, & won't contain Clay & Co here.
RATING: WISCONSIN 89
KANSAS STATE 37 - Kansas 27 - (12:30) - Line opened at Kansas minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. The
Jayhawks have certainly had their way with the Wildcats since the departure of Snyder, with
3 wins & covers, taking KSt by a 52-21 count last year. And despite his return, the 'Cats
hardly opened impressively, with SU & ATS losses to Lafayette & Ucla, sandwiched with
wins over the likes of UMass & TennTech. Then a 66-14 lambasting at TexasTech. But 3-0
ATS since (by 79½ pts), while compiling a 62-20 pt edge in their last 2 HGs. The Jays are
struggling (0-3 SU, 0-5 ATS), have no running offense, & QB Reesing is hurting.
RATING: KANSAS STATE 89
Byu 34 - WYOMING 30 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 13, and is still minus 13. Quite a turnaround for
the Cowboys, who opened this season on a seemingly impossible 4-22 spread slide. Well,
thus far in '09, only Temple matches their 6-1 record vs the pts. Incredible. After a shaky
start, the 'Pokes have held their last 3 opponents to just 15 ppg, & that includes AirForce &
Utah, who managed only 3 & 9 pts respectively, thru 3 quarters. The Coogs, of course, can
score with the best of them (43 ppg 6 of last 7), behind the leadership of Hall (2,231 PYs), but
that BYU "D" is another matter (32 ppg last 6 outings). A dog call.
RATING: WYOMING 88
Maryland 33 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 30 - (12:30) -- Line opened at NoCaroSt minus 6½, and is now
minus 7. Much like the BYU Cougars above, the Wolfpack of NCSt has little trouble in
moving the ball (30.4 ppg in their last 5 contests), but have been absolutely skewered by
their uncomplimentary defense, which has allowed 41.4 ppg over those same 5 games.
Sure, 'Pack QB Wilson is in off a 349 PY, 5 TD showing vs FloridaSt, but nonetheless, a 45-
42 loss. The Terps have dropped their last 3 games, but were in all 3, & are amazing 12-1
ATS off a pair of SU setbacks. Rested off bye, & note series dog covering 18-of-23!
RATING: MARYLAND 88
SMU 44 - Rice 17 - (3:00) -- Line opened at SMU minus 18½, and is now minus 17½. Circle this one as
atonement for the Ponies, after last year's embarrassing 56-27 loss to the Owls. As a
matter of fact, Rice posted a 56-7 pt edge over one span of that game. But things have a
way of coming around, & with Rice owning the worst scoring defense in the land (45.5 ppg),
while scoring at only 15 ppg, compared to last year's 41.3 ppg offense, now is the time. As
noted early in the season, with 7 starters gone from that "O", there is no way that the Owls
can be competitive, as that "D" has always been suspect. 'Stangs nail revenge.
RATING: SMU 88
Arizona 27 - CHICAGO 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 3, and is still minus 3. Bears came in
nicely for us a week ago, as our Top Play on Pointwise, which snapped mini 0-2 slide, both
SU & ATS. But that one was against the horrid Browns. Another matter here, as they catch
the Cards off an atrocious performance, both offensively, & defensively, and when that happens,
'Zona simply bounces back. LW, Warne tossed 5 INTs vs Carolina, which had '08
playoff revenge in its favor. But Bear QB Cutler is hardly the epitome of steadiness (11
INTs). Cards Plus 87½ pts ATS in their last 4 RGs. Can't be dismissed.
RATING: ARIZONA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): MichSt, Duke, GaTech, OklaSt, AirForce -- NFL: GBay, Houston, Denver
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Missouri (-14½ to -17); Pitt (-18 to -20½); TCU (-22 to -24½);
UtahSt (-1 to -3); WesternKy (+26 to +24); Boise (-19½ to -21); NoCarolina (-7 to -8½) - NFL: Giants (-3 to -
4) -
TIME CHANGES: Cincy/UConn: 8:00; Md/NCSt: 1:00; GaTech/Wake: 3:30; Kent/Akron: 3:30; Miami/Va:
12:00; Clemson/FlaSt: 7:45 - NFL: None -
KEY INJURIES: Arizona RB Grigsby (shoulder) doubtful; Cal RB
Best (ankle) ??; Cincinnati QB Pike (forearm) ??; UConn QB Endres (shoulder) out for season; Fla-Atlantic
QB Smith (shoulder) ??; FloridaSt QB Ponder (ribs) prob; Georgia WR Green (ribs) doubtful; IowaSt QB
Arnaud (hand) prob; LaTech RB Porter (concussion) ??; Memphis RB Steele (leg) prob; Minnesota WR
Decker (ankle) out for regular season; Navy QB Dobbs (knee) prob; Nebraska RB Helu (shoulder) prob;
NoIllinois QB Harnish (knee) ??; Northwestern QB Kafka (leg) prob; NotreDame QB Clausen (toe) prob;
OhioSt QB Pryor (leg) prob; OklahomaSt RB Hunter (ankle) ??; SMU QB Mitchell (shoulder) ??; Syracuse
star WR Williams quit team; TexasTech QB Sheffield (foot) ??; Toledo QB Opelt (thumb) prob; WakeForest
QB Skinner (concussion) ?? - NFL: Buffalo QB Edwards (concussion) prob; Carolina QB Delhomme (chest)
prob; Detroit RB Smith (shoulder) prob; GreenBay QB Rodgers (foot) prob); KansasCity RB Johnson (disciplinary)
doubtful; Philadelphia RB Westbrook (concussion)......
Wisconsin 38 - INDIANA 14 - (12:00 EST) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 11, and is still minus 11. We
have been a bit leery of backing the Badgers over the last season or so, due to the fact that
their defense hasn't held up its part of the bargain, allowing 28 ppg in 10 lined games previous
to last week, when they pitched a shutout over the always dangerous Boilers of Purdue.
But it was only a matter of time, as they've held their last 4 foes to 15, 8, 16, & 8 FDs, & that
includes holding OhioSt to 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs, at Columbus. Hoosiers have had their
moments, but "D" is crumbling, & won't contain Clay & Co here.
RATING: WISCONSIN 89
KANSAS STATE 37 - Kansas 27 - (12:30) - Line opened at Kansas minus 2½, and is still minus 2½. The
Jayhawks have certainly had their way with the Wildcats since the departure of Snyder, with
3 wins & covers, taking KSt by a 52-21 count last year. And despite his return, the 'Cats
hardly opened impressively, with SU & ATS losses to Lafayette & Ucla, sandwiched with
wins over the likes of UMass & TennTech. Then a 66-14 lambasting at TexasTech. But 3-0
ATS since (by 79½ pts), while compiling a 62-20 pt edge in their last 2 HGs. The Jays are
struggling (0-3 SU, 0-5 ATS), have no running offense, & QB Reesing is hurting.
RATING: KANSAS STATE 89
Byu 34 - WYOMING 30 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 13, and is still minus 13. Quite a turnaround for
the Cowboys, who opened this season on a seemingly impossible 4-22 spread slide. Well,
thus far in '09, only Temple matches their 6-1 record vs the pts. Incredible. After a shaky
start, the 'Pokes have held their last 3 opponents to just 15 ppg, & that includes AirForce &
Utah, who managed only 3 & 9 pts respectively, thru 3 quarters. The Coogs, of course, can
score with the best of them (43 ppg 6 of last 7), behind the leadership of Hall (2,231 PYs), but
that BYU "D" is another matter (32 ppg last 6 outings). A dog call.
RATING: WYOMING 88
Maryland 33 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 30 - (12:30) -- Line opened at NoCaroSt minus 6½, and is now
minus 7. Much like the BYU Cougars above, the Wolfpack of NCSt has little trouble in
moving the ball (30.4 ppg in their last 5 contests), but have been absolutely skewered by
their uncomplimentary defense, which has allowed 41.4 ppg over those same 5 games.
Sure, 'Pack QB Wilson is in off a 349 PY, 5 TD showing vs FloridaSt, but nonetheless, a 45-
42 loss. The Terps have dropped their last 3 games, but were in all 3, & are amazing 12-1
ATS off a pair of SU setbacks. Rested off bye, & note series dog covering 18-of-23!
RATING: MARYLAND 88
SMU 44 - Rice 17 - (3:00) -- Line opened at SMU minus 18½, and is now minus 17½. Circle this one as
atonement for the Ponies, after last year's embarrassing 56-27 loss to the Owls. As a
matter of fact, Rice posted a 56-7 pt edge over one span of that game. But things have a
way of coming around, & with Rice owning the worst scoring defense in the land (45.5 ppg),
while scoring at only 15 ppg, compared to last year's 41.3 ppg offense, now is the time. As
noted early in the season, with 7 starters gone from that "O", there is no way that the Owls
can be competitive, as that "D" has always been suspect. 'Stangs nail revenge.
RATING: SMU 88
Arizona 27 - CHICAGO 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 3, and is still minus 3. Bears came in
nicely for us a week ago, as our Top Play on Pointwise, which snapped mini 0-2 slide, both
SU & ATS. But that one was against the horrid Browns. Another matter here, as they catch
the Cards off an atrocious performance, both offensively, & defensively, and when that happens,
'Zona simply bounces back. LW, Warne tossed 5 INTs vs Carolina, which had '08
playoff revenge in its favor. But Bear QB Cutler is hardly the epitome of steadiness (11
INTs). Cards Plus 87½ pts ATS in their last 4 RGs. Can't be dismissed.
RATING: ARIZONA 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): MichSt, Duke, GaTech, OklaSt, AirForce -- NFL: GBay, Houston, Denver
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): Missouri (-14½ to -17); Pitt (-18 to -20½); TCU (-22 to -24½);
UtahSt (-1 to -3); WesternKy (+26 to +24); Boise (-19½ to -21); NoCarolina (-7 to -8½) - NFL: Giants (-3 to -
4) -
TIME CHANGES: Cincy/UConn: 8:00; Md/NCSt: 1:00; GaTech/Wake: 3:30; Kent/Akron: 3:30; Miami/Va:
12:00; Clemson/FlaSt: 7:45 - NFL: None -
KEY INJURIES: Arizona RB Grigsby (shoulder) doubtful; Cal RB
Best (ankle) ??; Cincinnati QB Pike (forearm) ??; UConn QB Endres (shoulder) out for season; Fla-Atlantic
QB Smith (shoulder) ??; FloridaSt QB Ponder (ribs) prob; Georgia WR Green (ribs) doubtful; IowaSt QB
Arnaud (hand) prob; LaTech RB Porter (concussion) ??; Memphis RB Steele (leg) prob; Minnesota WR
Decker (ankle) out for regular season; Navy QB Dobbs (knee) prob; Nebraska RB Helu (shoulder) prob;
NoIllinois QB Harnish (knee) ??; Northwestern QB Kafka (leg) prob; NotreDame QB Clausen (toe) prob;
OhioSt QB Pryor (leg) prob; OklahomaSt RB Hunter (ankle) ??; SMU QB Mitchell (shoulder) ??; Syracuse
star WR Williams quit team; TexasTech QB Sheffield (foot) ??; Toledo QB Opelt (thumb) prob; WakeForest
QB Skinner (concussion) ?? - NFL: Buffalo QB Edwards (concussion) prob; Carolina QB Delhomme (chest)
prob; Detroit RB Smith (shoulder) prob; GreenBay QB Rodgers (foot) prob); KansasCity RB Johnson (disciplinary)
doubtful; Philadelphia RB Westbrook (concussion)......
LOGICAL APPROACH
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 10 Games through November 9, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: UNLV - 1 over Colorado State - It's been a disappointing season for UNLV as the rebels were projected by some experts to be a Bowl team but 1t 3-6 they must win out to become eligible. Yet a look at their schedule shows they pretty much have performed as expected, losing to the much better teams on their schedule for the most part, especially at home. Colorado State is also 3-6 but the Rams started 3-0 and are winless in conference play. The teams are fairly close statistically with UNLV having the more potent offense but also the more porous defense. UNLV was in a similar position last season and made a late run but finished 5-7 after dropping their season finale. They should also be motivated to get their first win over CSU on their home field. With CSU in perhaps even a worse frame of mind than the Rebels, UNLV's goals are achievable and they should outlast this foe. UNLV wins 34-27.
Other Featured College Selections
Lsu + 8 over ALABAMA - Alabama is working on a second straight perfect regular season but needs a win here to earn the SEC West Title, at 5-1 in conference play, an upset by LSU would give the Tigers the edge for the right to play Florida in the SEC title game. 'Bama is rested after a Bye week although LSU had pretty much a scrimmage last week in beating Tulane 42-0. LSU is 7-1 overall with their lone loss coming at home to Florida, 13-3. Both teams have outstanding defenses. Alabama has been a bit more productive on offense but neither offense turns the ball over. LSU had won 5 straight in the series before 'Bama won 27-21 at LSU last season. The talent level is fairly even and both teams are loaded with speed, especially on defense. The home field is an edge for the Tide although LSU has played well on the road since Miles took over for Saban as coach. This should be a typical low scoring and physical SEC game with more big plays made by the two defenses. An upset would not shock, but Alabama should win a tight one. Alabama wins but by just 20-16.
KANSAS STATE + 3 over Kansas - Kansas started 5-0 but has dropped 3 in a row with 2 of the 3 coming away from home. Their lone road win came early at weak UTEP. Bill Snyder has returned to coach K State after a 3 season hiatus and he built the program from nothing in the 1980's into a perennial Top 10 team for much of the 1990's and into this decade. He always made a point of winning this intra-state rivalry and had great success in doing so, often winning by 5 TDs or more. Since he "retired" Kansas has won all 3 meetings, including 52-21 last season. A win here maintains their lead in the Big 12 North which could lead to a BCS Bowl should they get by Texas. KSU has had several impressive efforts this season and last week showed no quit despite trailing 21-0 in the first quarter at Oklahoma, closing to within 28-23 before falling 42-30. The talent level is fairly even but the motivation and intangibles are very strong on the K State sideline, especially as they take to the field named for their coach in their most important game. Kansas State wins 31-23.
STANFORD + 5 ½ over Oregon - Oregon was extremely impressive in routing USC 47-20 last week and they have been receiving kudos and "atta boys" all week on campus. Meanwhile Stanford had a Bye and has had extra time to prepare for perhaps the nation's hottest team. And the Cardinal is more than capable of hanging in against the Ducks. The have a better balanced offense, rushing and passing for over 200 yards per game. Oregon has the better defense but that defense could be slowed on the grass surface. In their only game on grass this season Oregon struggled to a 24-10 win at UCLA, basically winning the game with 4 great minutes of football at the start of the third quarter. Stanford is improving under coach Jim Harbaugh and they need one more win to become Bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. Oregon has won 7 in a row over Stanford, covering the first 6 before Stanford covered as + 14 in last year's 35-28 road loss. The gap between the teams has narrowed and Oregon is in a natural flat spot, ripe for the upset. Stanford wins 28-27.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
BUFFALO - 3 over Bowling Green [1]
TEMPLE - 17 over Miami Ohio [2]
Illinois + 6 ½ over MINNESOTA
NORTH CAROLINA STATE - 7 over Maryland
South Carolina + 7 over ARKANSAS
Oklahoma State - 7 ½ over IOWA STATE
Byu - 13 ½ over WYOMING
Navy + 11 * over NOTRE DAME
Kent State - 3 over AKRON
Army + 17 over AIR FORCE
PENN STATE - 3 ½ over Ohio State
SAN DIEGO STATE + 25 over Tcu
Fresno State - 7 ½ over IDAHO
UTAH - 27 ½ over New Mexico
Oregon State + 7 over CALIFORNIA
COLORADO + 3 over Texas A&M
Houston Pick 'em over TULSA
ARIZONA STATE + 10 ½ over Usc
MICHIGAN - 6 over Purdue
HAWAII + 2 over Utah State
Florida Atlantic + 6 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over Florida Internt'l
The Rest (Leans)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 21 over E. Michigan [2]
EAST CAROLINA + 12 ½ over Virginia Tech [2]
LOUISIANA TECH + 21 over Boise State [3]
Western Michigan + 18 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
CINCINNATI - 16 ½ * over Connecticut
Syracuse + 22 over PITTSBURGH
IOWA - 16 over Northwestern
WEST VIRGINIA - 19 over Louisville
Wake Forest + 16 over GEORGIA TECH
Duke + 9 over NORTH CAROLINA
Wisconsin - 10 ½ over INDIANA
MISSOURI - 14 over Baylor
Vanderbilt + 35 over FLORIDA
SMU - 18 over Rice
Utep - 7 over TULANE
Central Florida + 35 ½ over TEXAS
Oklahoma - 5 ½ over NEBRASKA
ARIZONA - 33 over Washington State
UCLA - 4 over Washington
MIAMI FLA - 14 over Virginia
TENNESSEE - 25 ½ over Memphis
CLEMSON - 8 over Florida State
NORTH TEXAS - 1 over UL Monroe
Troy - 24 ½ over WESTERN KENTUCKY
ARKANSAS STATE - 13 ½ over UL Lafayette
Nevada Reno - 13 over SAN JOSE STATE [4]
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SAN FRANCISCO - 4 over Tennessee - Tennessee finally got their first win last week but still allowed over 200 yards rushing as the defense continues to struggle following the departure of long time defensive coordinator Schwartz to Detroit. San Francisco followed up their strong second half in Houston a week earlier with a solid effort in an 18-14 loss at Indianapolis, forcing the Colts to settle for 4 field goals and holding QB Manning without a TD pass. The change to Smith at QB has been promising and the Niners return home looking to end a 3 game losing streak that started with a blowout loss to Atlanta on this field three weeks ago. Fundamentally the Titans # 2 rushing offense will face the Niner's # 2 rushing defense. Neither team has much of a passing offense although both pass defenses are vulnerable. The overall defensive strongly stats favor San Francisco. Tennessee QB Young has a history of inconsistent play. The Niners are 5-1 ATS and in favorable circumstance. San Francisco wins 27-14.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
CINCINNATI + 3 over Baltimore - Baltimore plays to avenge a last minute home loss to the Bengals from earlier this season. Cincinnati is rested following their Bye and playing with confidence on both sides of the football. The Ravens ended their 3 game losing streak with an impressive second half against previously unbeaten Denver last week. The Bengals have already defeated the Steelers at home and have a rematch at Pittsburgh next week. Here they have a chance to improve to 4-0 in Division play. As favorites the interest might not be there. But as home underdogs it's a different story, especially with Baltimore allowing at least 26 points in all 3 road games. Surprisingly both teams are allowing the same 88 rushing ypg. Both teams have played a similar level of competition with their foes an identical 29-22. The perception remains that the Ravens are clearly the better team but this season's performances show these teams are pretty even. Thus despite Baltimore's revenge motive, this game should be priced closer to pick 'em. Cincinnati wins 23-16.
Washington + 10 over ATLANTA - Atlanta played well at Division rival New Orleans Monday night but lost despite a +1 turnover edge and slightly outgaining the Saints in total yards. Washington is off their Bye which should have given them time to implement changes to the offense. The loss of TE Cooley further weakens that unit. The Redskins' defense has performed well and that unit will be called upon to keep them in most games. Atlanta is allowing just 13.7 points per game at home although their basic defensive stats are rather ordinary. Whether Washington can capitalize is debatable. Atlanta QB Ryan is starting to show signs of regression in his second season and that plays to Washington's strength, their # 3 ranked pass defense. The matchups suggest Atlanta prevails in a more competitive contest than expected. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Dallas + 3 over PHILADELPHIA - Since their shocking loss at Oakland the Eagles have played two excellent games in defeating their other two NFC East rivals Washington and New York by a combined 67-34. Dallas has also won a pair of games following their Bye, outscoring Atlanta and Seattle 75-38. Both teams' offenses are clicking and in 3 of their last 4 meetings the Cowboys and Eagles have scored at least 50 points. At the end of last season the Cowboys needed simply to win on this field to make the Playoffs, even after Oakland shocked Tampa Bay to give the Eagles the same opportunity with a win. The result? Philly won 44-6, so the Cowboys have a revenge motive in a game that will see the winner alone atop the NFC East. Dallas has the better rushing and passing offense while Philly has put up the better defensive stats. Dallas may have the best defensive player on the field in LB Ware. Both teams are playing their best football and in such an evenly matched game any points are worth taking with either team capable of winning. Dallas wins 31-27.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
INDIANAPOLIS - 9 over Houston
TAMPA BAY + 10 over Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND - 10 ½ over Miami
The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE - 6 ½ over Kansas City
CHICAGO - 3 over Arizona
Carolina + 14 over NEW ORLEANS
SEATTLE - 10 over Detroit
N Y GIANTS - 4 over San Diego
DENVER + 3 over Pittsburgh (Monday)
Byes --
Buffalo
Cleveland
Minnesota
N Y Jets
Oakland
St Louis
Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 43
Houston/Indianapolis UNDER 48
Washington/Atlanta UNDER 42
San Diego/N Y Giants OVER 47 ½
Dallas/Philadelphia OVER 47 ½
Pittsburgh/Denver UNDER 39
Money Line Recommendations
College: Illinois
KANSAS STATE
STANFORD
COLORADO
Pro:
CINCINNATI
SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas
DENVER
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 10 Games through November 9, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: UNLV - 1 over Colorado State - It's been a disappointing season for UNLV as the rebels were projected by some experts to be a Bowl team but 1t 3-6 they must win out to become eligible. Yet a look at their schedule shows they pretty much have performed as expected, losing to the much better teams on their schedule for the most part, especially at home. Colorado State is also 3-6 but the Rams started 3-0 and are winless in conference play. The teams are fairly close statistically with UNLV having the more potent offense but also the more porous defense. UNLV was in a similar position last season and made a late run but finished 5-7 after dropping their season finale. They should also be motivated to get their first win over CSU on their home field. With CSU in perhaps even a worse frame of mind than the Rebels, UNLV's goals are achievable and they should outlast this foe. UNLV wins 34-27.
Other Featured College Selections
Lsu + 8 over ALABAMA - Alabama is working on a second straight perfect regular season but needs a win here to earn the SEC West Title, at 5-1 in conference play, an upset by LSU would give the Tigers the edge for the right to play Florida in the SEC title game. 'Bama is rested after a Bye week although LSU had pretty much a scrimmage last week in beating Tulane 42-0. LSU is 7-1 overall with their lone loss coming at home to Florida, 13-3. Both teams have outstanding defenses. Alabama has been a bit more productive on offense but neither offense turns the ball over. LSU had won 5 straight in the series before 'Bama won 27-21 at LSU last season. The talent level is fairly even and both teams are loaded with speed, especially on defense. The home field is an edge for the Tide although LSU has played well on the road since Miles took over for Saban as coach. This should be a typical low scoring and physical SEC game with more big plays made by the two defenses. An upset would not shock, but Alabama should win a tight one. Alabama wins but by just 20-16.
KANSAS STATE + 3 over Kansas - Kansas started 5-0 but has dropped 3 in a row with 2 of the 3 coming away from home. Their lone road win came early at weak UTEP. Bill Snyder has returned to coach K State after a 3 season hiatus and he built the program from nothing in the 1980's into a perennial Top 10 team for much of the 1990's and into this decade. He always made a point of winning this intra-state rivalry and had great success in doing so, often winning by 5 TDs or more. Since he "retired" Kansas has won all 3 meetings, including 52-21 last season. A win here maintains their lead in the Big 12 North which could lead to a BCS Bowl should they get by Texas. KSU has had several impressive efforts this season and last week showed no quit despite trailing 21-0 in the first quarter at Oklahoma, closing to within 28-23 before falling 42-30. The talent level is fairly even but the motivation and intangibles are very strong on the K State sideline, especially as they take to the field named for their coach in their most important game. Kansas State wins 31-23.
STANFORD + 5 ½ over Oregon - Oregon was extremely impressive in routing USC 47-20 last week and they have been receiving kudos and "atta boys" all week on campus. Meanwhile Stanford had a Bye and has had extra time to prepare for perhaps the nation's hottest team. And the Cardinal is more than capable of hanging in against the Ducks. The have a better balanced offense, rushing and passing for over 200 yards per game. Oregon has the better defense but that defense could be slowed on the grass surface. In their only game on grass this season Oregon struggled to a 24-10 win at UCLA, basically winning the game with 4 great minutes of football at the start of the third quarter. Stanford is improving under coach Jim Harbaugh and they need one more win to become Bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. Oregon has won 7 in a row over Stanford, covering the first 6 before Stanford covered as + 14 in last year's 35-28 road loss. The gap between the teams has narrowed and Oregon is in a natural flat spot, ripe for the upset. Stanford wins 28-27.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
BUFFALO - 3 over Bowling Green [1]
TEMPLE - 17 over Miami Ohio [2]
Illinois + 6 ½ over MINNESOTA
NORTH CAROLINA STATE - 7 over Maryland
South Carolina + 7 over ARKANSAS
Oklahoma State - 7 ½ over IOWA STATE
Byu - 13 ½ over WYOMING
Navy + 11 * over NOTRE DAME
Kent State - 3 over AKRON
Army + 17 over AIR FORCE
PENN STATE - 3 ½ over Ohio State
SAN DIEGO STATE + 25 over Tcu
Fresno State - 7 ½ over IDAHO
UTAH - 27 ½ over New Mexico
Oregon State + 7 over CALIFORNIA
COLORADO + 3 over Texas A&M
Houston Pick 'em over TULSA
ARIZONA STATE + 10 ½ over Usc
MICHIGAN - 6 over Purdue
HAWAII + 2 over Utah State
Florida Atlantic + 6 over ALA-BIRMINGHAM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over Florida Internt'l
The Rest (Leans)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 21 over E. Michigan [2]
EAST CAROLINA + 12 ½ over Virginia Tech [2]
LOUISIANA TECH + 21 over Boise State [3]
Western Michigan + 18 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
CINCINNATI - 16 ½ * over Connecticut
Syracuse + 22 over PITTSBURGH
IOWA - 16 over Northwestern
WEST VIRGINIA - 19 over Louisville
Wake Forest + 16 over GEORGIA TECH
Duke + 9 over NORTH CAROLINA
Wisconsin - 10 ½ over INDIANA
MISSOURI - 14 over Baylor
Vanderbilt + 35 over FLORIDA
SMU - 18 over Rice
Utep - 7 over TULANE
Central Florida + 35 ½ over TEXAS
Oklahoma - 5 ½ over NEBRASKA
ARIZONA - 33 over Washington State
UCLA - 4 over Washington
MIAMI FLA - 14 over Virginia
TENNESSEE - 25 ½ over Memphis
CLEMSON - 8 over Florida State
NORTH TEXAS - 1 over UL Monroe
Troy - 24 ½ over WESTERN KENTUCKY
ARKANSAS STATE - 13 ½ over UL Lafayette
Nevada Reno - 13 over SAN JOSE STATE [4]
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: SAN FRANCISCO - 4 over Tennessee - Tennessee finally got their first win last week but still allowed over 200 yards rushing as the defense continues to struggle following the departure of long time defensive coordinator Schwartz to Detroit. San Francisco followed up their strong second half in Houston a week earlier with a solid effort in an 18-14 loss at Indianapolis, forcing the Colts to settle for 4 field goals and holding QB Manning without a TD pass. The change to Smith at QB has been promising and the Niners return home looking to end a 3 game losing streak that started with a blowout loss to Atlanta on this field three weeks ago. Fundamentally the Titans # 2 rushing offense will face the Niner's # 2 rushing defense. Neither team has much of a passing offense although both pass defenses are vulnerable. The overall defensive strongly stats favor San Francisco. Tennessee QB Young has a history of inconsistent play. The Niners are 5-1 ATS and in favorable circumstance. San Francisco wins 27-14.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
CINCINNATI + 3 over Baltimore - Baltimore plays to avenge a last minute home loss to the Bengals from earlier this season. Cincinnati is rested following their Bye and playing with confidence on both sides of the football. The Ravens ended their 3 game losing streak with an impressive second half against previously unbeaten Denver last week. The Bengals have already defeated the Steelers at home and have a rematch at Pittsburgh next week. Here they have a chance to improve to 4-0 in Division play. As favorites the interest might not be there. But as home underdogs it's a different story, especially with Baltimore allowing at least 26 points in all 3 road games. Surprisingly both teams are allowing the same 88 rushing ypg. Both teams have played a similar level of competition with their foes an identical 29-22. The perception remains that the Ravens are clearly the better team but this season's performances show these teams are pretty even. Thus despite Baltimore's revenge motive, this game should be priced closer to pick 'em. Cincinnati wins 23-16.
Washington + 10 over ATLANTA - Atlanta played well at Division rival New Orleans Monday night but lost despite a +1 turnover edge and slightly outgaining the Saints in total yards. Washington is off their Bye which should have given them time to implement changes to the offense. The loss of TE Cooley further weakens that unit. The Redskins' defense has performed well and that unit will be called upon to keep them in most games. Atlanta is allowing just 13.7 points per game at home although their basic defensive stats are rather ordinary. Whether Washington can capitalize is debatable. Atlanta QB Ryan is starting to show signs of regression in his second season and that plays to Washington's strength, their # 3 ranked pass defense. The matchups suggest Atlanta prevails in a more competitive contest than expected. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Dallas + 3 over PHILADELPHIA - Since their shocking loss at Oakland the Eagles have played two excellent games in defeating their other two NFC East rivals Washington and New York by a combined 67-34. Dallas has also won a pair of games following their Bye, outscoring Atlanta and Seattle 75-38. Both teams' offenses are clicking and in 3 of their last 4 meetings the Cowboys and Eagles have scored at least 50 points. At the end of last season the Cowboys needed simply to win on this field to make the Playoffs, even after Oakland shocked Tampa Bay to give the Eagles the same opportunity with a win. The result? Philly won 44-6, so the Cowboys have a revenge motive in a game that will see the winner alone atop the NFC East. Dallas has the better rushing and passing offense while Philly has put up the better defensive stats. Dallas may have the best defensive player on the field in LB Ware. Both teams are playing their best football and in such an evenly matched game any points are worth taking with either team capable of winning. Dallas wins 31-27.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
INDIANAPOLIS - 9 over Houston
TAMPA BAY + 10 over Green Bay
NEW ENGLAND - 10 ½ over Miami
The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE - 6 ½ over Kansas City
CHICAGO - 3 over Arizona
Carolina + 14 over NEW ORLEANS
SEATTLE - 10 over Detroit
N Y GIANTS - 4 over San Diego
DENVER + 3 over Pittsburgh (Monday)
Byes --
Buffalo
Cleveland
Minnesota
N Y Jets
Oakland
St Louis
Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER 43
Houston/Indianapolis UNDER 48
Washington/Atlanta UNDER 42
San Diego/N Y Giants OVER 47 ½
Dallas/Philadelphia OVER 47 ½
Pittsburgh/Denver UNDER 39
Money Line Recommendations
College: Illinois
KANSAS STATE
STANFORD
COLORADO
Pro:
CINCINNATI
SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas
DENVER
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
CHRIS THOMAS’S…
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
THIS WEEK'S TOP HITS...
HIT THIS HARD...Oklahoma -6 over Nebraska! Cornhuskers are still a year or two away from renewing this rivalry in a top fashion. Sooners still an elite team despite multiple losses. No contest even in front of the "Husker nation."
HIT THIS MEDIUM... Florida Atlantic (+6 1/2) OVER UAB . Blazers broke through in win over UTEP at El Paso. Returning home, they might lay an egg.
HIT THIS SMALL... Florida Intl (+13 1/2) OVER Middle Tennessee State. They beat BCS schools. They've played everyone tough. Middle Tennessee just needs to not take this one for granted to grind out a two touchdown or more victory... I'm thinking FLINTL .. might sneak in the back door cover
NFL ADVANCE HIT...
Chargers (+4) OVER GIANTS.. Giants are running out of real estate here .. after loosing two big games they are desperate to find a win .. Chargers are now in mid-late season form .. I almost made this my "Hit Big" game this week
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
THIS WEEK'S TOP HITS...
HIT THIS HARD...Oklahoma -6 over Nebraska! Cornhuskers are still a year or two away from renewing this rivalry in a top fashion. Sooners still an elite team despite multiple losses. No contest even in front of the "Husker nation."
HIT THIS MEDIUM... Florida Atlantic (+6 1/2) OVER UAB . Blazers broke through in win over UTEP at El Paso. Returning home, they might lay an egg.
HIT THIS SMALL... Florida Intl (+13 1/2) OVER Middle Tennessee State. They beat BCS schools. They've played everyone tough. Middle Tennessee just needs to not take this one for granted to grind out a two touchdown or more victory... I'm thinking FLINTL .. might sneak in the back door cover
NFL ADVANCE HIT...
Chargers (+4) OVER GIANTS.. Giants are running out of real estate here .. after loosing two big games they are desperate to find a win .. Chargers are now in mid-late season form .. I almost made this my "Hit Big" game this week
Nelly's Greensheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 OHIO STATE (+3½) over Penn State
RATING 4 CLEMSON (-8½) over Florida State
RATING 3 OKLAHOMA (-6) over Nebraska
RATING 2 MARYLAND (+7½) over NC State
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-19) over Syracuse
RATING 1 KANSAS STATE (+2½) over Kansas
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9) over Lsu
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2009
BUFFALO (-3½) Bowling Green 6:00 PM
Both MAC squads are 3-5 entering this Tuesday night match-up but Bowling Green is 2-2 in
MAC play although the Falcons are well out of the division lead. Bowling Green has played a
more difficult schedule than Buffalo and these teams have had the same result every week,
winning the opener before four-game losing streaks. Back-to-back wins then followed but both
enter this game off losses in the last game. Buffalo is the vastly superior running team as
Bowling Green rushes for just 61 yards per game but the Falcons feature one of the most
productive passing attacks in the nation. In a charmed 2008 season Buffalo won at Bowling
Green 40-34 in double-overtime en route to the MAC title. The trends favor Bowling Green as
the Falcons have covered in 12 of the last 14 road games but Buffalo may be the better
defensive team and cold weather should favor the rushing team. BUFFALO BY 7
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2009
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-21) Eastern Michigan 7:30 PM
Both teams received misleading cov ers last week as the Huskies trailed most of the way
against Akron before rallying for a deceptive 27-10 win and cover. Eastern Michigan was
never close against Arkansas but against the reserves the Eagles found a few scoring
opportunities and actually took the ATS win late in the game. NIU is now 5-3 on the season
and comfortably in second place in the MAC West and the Huskies should have a good
opportunity at making a bowl game while they still have a chance to face MAC leader Central
Michigan for the division title. Eastern Michigan is still winless and the best opportunities for
wins have already passed. That said NIU has struggled the last two weeks against losing
teams and also lost to a Toledo team that handed Miami, OH its first win last week. NIU is
strong rushing team but the Huskies have benefited from one of the top turnover margins in
the nation. Although NIU won 37-0 last year, Eastern Michigan has played a much tougher
schedule and Northern Illinois does not appear reliable as a big favorite. NIU BY 17
TEMPLE (-13) Miami, OH 6:30 PM
The Temple Owls are now bowl eligible and now at 4-0 in MAC play leading the East division.
The top East foes remain on the schedule and after a very big non-conference win the Owls
can not afford a letdown against 1-8 Miami. The Redhawks have covered in four of the last
five games and picked up that first victory last week against Toledo. Temple has defeated
Miami each of the last two seasons but has had the yardage edge as turnovers have been a
problem. Miami has one of the worst rushing offenses in the country and this is a team that is
averaging just 13 points per game, with a lot of that scoring coming late in games after the
outcome has been decided. Coming off the first win of the season Miami could be in for a
touch match facing a Temple team that is playing well and winning the games they should
despite opening the season with a FCS loss. Temple’s offense does not suggest blowout
potential but the Owls have played great defense, albeit through a very suspect schedule.
Miami has played the toughest schedule in the MAC and it has shown. TEMPLE BY 20
Virginia Tech (-12½) EAST CAROLINA 6:30 PM
Last season East Carolina started a great season with a 27-22 upset of Virginia Tech, holding
the Hokies to just 243 yards. Both teams also played midweek games last week but met
different results as the Pirates won easily at Memphis and Virginia Tech was upset at home
against North Carolina. Virginia Tech now has three losses to end any hopes of being in the
national picture and they would need a lot of help to make another conference title game
appearance. This is still a Hokies team with elite talent and two of the three losses came to
top ten teams. East Carolina is at the same place as last season through eight games and the
Pirates are in good position to make another C-USA title game appearance. The Pirates can
not let this game take too much out of them with more important conference games ahead.
East Carolina has been out-gained on the season and although the Virginia Tech numbers do
not look dominant they could be poised for a rebound. VIRGINIA TECH BY 14
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2009
Boise State (-20) LOUISIANA TECH 7:00 PM
Louisiana Tech has endured a disappointing year by any measure coming off a bowl season
last year and now 3-5. A golden opportunity for a win was wasted last week as huge lead was
given up in a one-point loss at Idaho. The Bulldogs had decent yardage production against
Boise State last season but lost 38-3 and in 2007 the Broncos barely escaped Ruston in a
narrow win. Louisiana Tech has covered in six straight games as home underdogs and
although Boise State will aim to tack on as much scoring as they can this could be a tough
match-up especially with a greatly improved state rival next on the schedule. It is tough to
justify going against Boise State but this will be long travel and the third road game in four
weeks to a historically difficult venue. BOISE STATE BY 17
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2009
MICHIGAN STATE (-18) Western Michigan 11:00 AM
Michigan State lost to a MAC team earlier this season so there will be no taking this match-up
lightly although the Spartans could be in a questionable emotional state follow ing back-toback
tough losses. Michigan State had Iowa beat two weeks ago before losing on the final
play and last week the Spartans came back after falling behind early but ultimately fell to 4-5
on the year. Western Michigan is also 4-5 and this has been a disappointing Broncos team
that was expected to be a threat in the MAC West. Western is just 2-6 ATS on the season and
lost S/U and ATS against two Big Ten schools early in the year. This will be the second
straight week on the road for Western Michigan and the Broncos are on a 14-22-1 run as
double-digit underdogs. Michigan State has been a very difficult team to run against this
season and there have been a lot mistakes in the passing game for Western despite
experience on the team. If the Spartans were playing well this might be a tough situation and
a game that gets overlooked but with bowl hopes likely hinging on this game a solid
performance should be expected. MICHIGAN STATE BY 24
CINCINNATI (NL) Connecticut 11:00 AM
As if the emotional toll was not enough for the Huskies they have suffered brutal losses the
past two weeks in close games. The Huskies scored to take the lead late last week but then
quickly surrendered the go-ahead score in the final minute. Connecticut had a dominant
yardage edge last week but lost starting QB Cody Endres early in the game and the early
season starter Zach Frazer came in and threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is now 8-0 and
clearly the team to beat in the Big East while in the thick of the national picture. There are
difficult games ahead and last season Connecticut beat Cincinnati 40-16 as turnovers played
a big role. Back-up QB Zach Collaros has played well for the Bearcats and starter Tony Pike
could be available soon. Both teams have been outstanding ATS performers on the year and
Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS the last 17 home games. Connecticut has proven the ability to play a
close game regardless of the foe and the Huskies have played the tougher schedule on the
season. The Bearcats appear on the verge of being overvalued. CINCINNATI BY 10
PITTSBURGH (-19) Syracuse 11:00 AM
The Panthers have had a week off to prepare for this game and soak in a 7-1 start including 4-
0 in conference play. Two big conference tests are waiting at the end of the season and a
non-conference match-up next week against Notre Dame could overshadow this game.
Syracuse has three wins on the season but the Orange sit 0-3 S/U and ATS in Big East play.
Syracuse has featured a solid run defense that will go up against a Pittsburgh rushing attack
that is averaging 179 yards per game. The Pitt defense also leads the nation in sacks while
allowing just 18 points per game and creating a lot of turnovers. This will be the first
conference road game for the Orange and the offense had very little produc tion in the only
other road game faced all year. Although Syracuse has played a slightly tougher schedule
Pittsburgh has been thoroughly impressive at home and the Panthers can keep a great
season going with another win. PITTSBURGH BY 27
IOWA (-17½) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Not only did the Hawkeyes rally back to win last week they inexplicably covered a lofty spread
despite trailing by ten entering the fourth quarter. In just as remarkable fashion Northwestern
failed to cover getting a big number despite being tied entering the fourth quarter. Wildcats QB
Mike Kafka left the game in the second quarter and that contributed to the Northwestern fade
as the Wildcats ventured deep into Penn State territory several times without getting points.
Iowa QB Ricky Stanz i had five interceptions last week but has proven to be a clutch fourth
quarter performer. Northwestern beat Iowa 22-17 last year holding on with an incredible late
game defensive stand to open the Big Ten season. Northwestern is 5-4 but will have an uphill
battle to get back to a bowl game but last week’s effort against a quality opponent was
encouraging. Losing Kafka really hurts Northwestern but the Wildcats are team that generally
hangs around and can put up points. Iowa continues to survive but another close call could be
in order particularly looking ahead to the huge Ohio State game next week. IOWA BY 10
MINNESOTA (-6) Illinois 11:00 AM
The Gophers picked up a big win last week and looks in line for a bowl bid with opportunities
for wins this week and next week against FCS South Dakota State. Last year this team closed
the season on a five game losing streak so getting back in the win column after two ugly
performances was of paramount importance. Illinois has been arguably the most disappointing
team in the nation but everything clicked last week for a 38-13 stunner against Michigan. Even
with all the losses Illinois is a strong rushing team, averaging 197 yards per game on the
ground, nearly double Minnesota’s output. The Gophers played without WR Decker last week
and still passed for 416 yards but this is a team that has been out-gained in seven of nine
games this season. Although this looks like a favorable match-up for Illinois this is a team that
has found plenty of ways to beat itself and will be playing a third road game in four weeks.
While Minnesota is coming off a big home win the letdown risk is greater for an Illinois team
that blew out Michigan last week and picked up its first FBS win of the season. Illinois may be
a play on team in games ahead and the rushing angle is promising but Minnesota has been a
tough home team and Illinois is Coach Brewster’s alma mater. MINNESOTA BY 10
WEST VIRGINIA (-19½) Louisville 11:00 AM
The Mountaineers have failed to cover in five of the last six games but at 6-2 overall and 2-1
in the Big East, West Virginia will still control its own destiny with opportunities against
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the coming weeks. Louisville is struggling through a very
disappointing but not altogether unexpected losing season and the Cardinals have not been
competitive in three conference games. Louisville won last week against Arkansas State but
the offense is scoring just over 20 points per game while posting poor defensive results. West
Virginia ran the ball at will last season in this match-up and another big day on the ground is
likely in order but the Mountaineers have been a flaky favorite and the offense is not scoring
nearly as much as in past years. Louisville is certainly a struggling team but this line could
climb too high and taking the points may make sense. WEST VIRGINIA BY 13
NC STATE (-7½) Maryland 11:00 AM
Maryland is 2-6 on the season but one win came impressively against a pretty strong Clemson
team. The Terps also led late in their other ACC home gam e before falling apart. With two
week s to prepare for this game Maryland should come up with a great game plan to attack a
very suspect NC State defense. Injuries have crippled the Wolfpack secondary and last week
NC State allowed over 550 yards in a 45-42 shootout loss. Maryland has a decent passing
game despite turning the ball over a lot and there should be opportunities in this match-up.
Maryland won on a late field goal last season at home and as an underdog in this series the
Terps are 11-3-1 in the last 15 instances. After another tough loss this could be a tough game
for NC State and the Wolfpack are 4-16 ATS in the last 20 games as home favorites.
Maryland has ugly numbers but they have played a much tougher schedule and with the extra
preparation time this should be a good set-up for the dog. MARYLAND BY 3
GEORGIA TECH (-14½) Wake Forest 11:00 AM
The Yellow Jackets have now won and covered in six straight games to take complete control
of the ACC. Georgia Tech is rushing for 304 yards per game and despite a flat early effort last
week the Yellow Jackets have been good enough to keep putting up points late in games.
Wake Forest is coming off a very tough loss as the Deacons led most of the way against
Miami but end up with a one-point loss despite about a 200 yard edge in the game. The
Demon Deacons have lost three straight games but four of the five losses on the year have
come by three points or less. Wake Forest has played Navy this season and twice last year so
the Deacons will have familiarity with the Georgia Tech offense. Value could be on a Deacons
team that has been very competitive all season but QB Skinner may be out for this game.
Georgia Tech is on a roll right now and is playing to elevate its national standing. Taking the
running team ov er the passing team generally pays off and this is the third road game in four
weeks for Wake Forest coming off a very tough loss to swallow. GEORGIA TECH BY 21
NORTH CAROLINA (-7½) Duke 2:00 PM
UNC delivered a big upset win at home last week against Virginia Tech and this rivalry game
will have bowl eligibility clinched for the winner. Duke has won three straight games, all in
ACC play and the Blue Devils have just one ATS loss on the season and three S/U road wins,
rare feats in recent years. Duke has played the easiest schedule of any ACC team but the
passing offense is posting huge numbers, averaging 325 yards per game in the air. North
Carolina has one the best statistical defenses in the nation, allowing just 265 yards and 16
points per game. The Tar Heels have had overwhelming success in this series but the last
four meetings have all been very tightly contested and it makes sense to back the much more
explosive underdog against a team coming off a huge primetime win. DUKE BY 3
Wisconsin (-11) INDIANA 11:00 AM
Coming off a bye week and back-to-back losses Wisconsin played a near-flawless game to
shutout Purdue 37-0. The Badgers have two Big Ten losses but they came against what
appears to be the top two teams in the conference. Indiana enters this game off two incredibly
depressing losses. The Hoosiers have squandered huge leads the last two weeks and a once
promising shot at bowl eligibility looks rather grim. In four of five Big Ten games Indiana has
played very competitively even if they have just one conference win and this is a team that
has exceeded expectations. Wisconsin has had no trouble with Indiana the last four years and
the outstanding rushing attack for the Badgers should have a lot of success in this match-up.
Through a tougher schedule Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team and unless the
Badgers have turnovers they should deliver a solid win on the road. WISCONSIN BY 14
ARKANSAS (-5) South Carolina 11:20 AM
The Gamecocks have been a very tough road team but last week fumbled in three of their first
five possessions to build an insurmountable deficit. South Carolina out-gained Tennessee last
week and has been an incredibly tough team on defense, allowing just 294 yards per game. In
contrast Arkansas is allowing 410 yards and 27 points per game. The Razorback offense has
had a few big games and has scored at least 40 points in every non-road game this season.
The last two meetings in this series have been double-digit wins for the home team but this
historically has been a tightly contested match-up. Arkansas was much more dominant last
week than the final score suggests but the Razors are just 1-4 S/U in SEC play and this is
team that has allowed at least 19 points in every FBS game. Only twice this season has South
Carolina allowed as many points as Arkansas gives up on average per game and both of
those instances were turnover driven. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 3
Oklahoma State (-7½) IOWA STATE 12:00 PM
The final score looked ugly for Oklahoma State last week but the Cowboys had five turnovers
and held Texas to just 275 yards. Last season OSU won 59-17 at home against Iowa State
but this has been a home dominated series. The Cyclones have delivered five wins this year
but last week lost badly at Texas A&M. Iowa State’s only home loss this season came against
undefeated Iowa. ISU was still without starting QB Austen Arnaud last week and his return
would provide a boost to this offense. Oklahoma State has struggled to protect its QB this
season and Iowa State is an opportunistic defensive team and turnovers will play a pivotal role
in this match-up. With the Cowboys coming off a disappointing effort against Texas this could
be a flat spot and Iowa State has been a surprise team. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 6
MISSOURI (-16) Baylor 1:00 PM
The Tigers bounced back from three straight losses with an impressive win at Colorado last
week. Missouri had a dominant yardage edge in the game and QB Gabbert appeared healthy
with a solid game although he did throw two interceptions. Missouri barely beat Baylor last
season despite being a better overall team than this year by most accounts but the Bears
have struggled with several injuries this year. Baylor has now lost four straight games with
only 34 points scored in that span and the offense will have a hard time keeping up. Baylor is
allowing 385 yards per game but is only giving up 24 points per game but the offense has not
been able to match those numbers. Statistically on offense these teams are closer than one
might think but Missouri has continued production into the Big XII campaign while Baylor has
stalled in recent weeks as the quality of schedule has improved. MISSOURI BY 21
FLORIDA (-32½) Vanderbilt 6:15 PM
The undefeated Gators cruised with little resistance last week and last year Florida beat
Vanderbilt 42-14. While some have criticized the Florida offense as being less explosive than
last season the numbers are still adding up impressively. The Gators are the sixth best
scoring offense in the nation while rushing for 252 yards per game. The passing game has not
had glowing numbers but rarely have the Gators been in a situation where they have needed
to pass. Vanderbilt has lost five straight games after a 2-2 start and there is only one ATS win
in that span. Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing just 22 points per game even after giving 56 last
week and the Commodores held tough with Georgia Tech last week for most of the game.
Florida’s quality of schedule has dramatically improved in recent weeks but on paper they
should be on cruise control the rest of the season. Vanderbilt has put up decent numbers as a
big underdog but going against Florida will have little positive return. FLORIDA BY 41
Byu (-13) WYOMING 1:00 PM
Wyoming has allowed just 72 points in four Mountain West games and the Cowboys have
faced two of the top four teams already. Wyoming played Utah very tough last week on the
road and the Cowboys are 2-0 S/U in MWC home games this season. Wyoming is 13-5 the
last 18 games as home underdogs and BYU could have motivation issues after falling well
short of season goals and national goals that came with the huge opening win over
Oklahoma. Last year BYU won 44-0 at home in this series and the Cougars are 5-0 S/U and
ATS in this series. This is a different Wyoming team however and quietly the Cowboy s have
covered in six of seven lined games this season. BYU has had two weeks to prepare for this
game and recover from a disastrous effort against TCU. BYU has not lived up to expectations
this season and if Wyoming can find the end zone this likely is a tough cover for the Cougars
as Wyoming can be a very tough place to play this time of year. BYU BY 7
NOTRE DAME (NL) Navy 1:30 PM
The Midshipmen were without a few key players last week and a five-game winning streak
was snapped at home against Temple. Notre Dame moved to 6-2 but the Irish are 1-6 ATS in
the last seven games including 0-6 as favorites. Navy has just one recent S/U win in this
series but the ATS results have favored the service academy with a 17-9 ATS mark since ’82.
As usual Navy is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, posting nearly 280 yards per
game on the ground and this will be a true rush vs. pass game as Notre Dame is one of the
top passing teams in the nation. The Irish are still lined up to be BCS bowl bound if they win
out to the chagrin of many and looking past Navy to a huge game with Pittsburgh next week is
a possibility. This is a much bigger game for Navy each year but the Midshipmen are not likely
to be 100 percent. Notre Dame has benefited from one of the top turnov er margins in the
nation as this is a team that could easily have twice as many losses but the Irish may be
undervalued in a series where Navy has had recent success. NOTRE DAME BY 10
SMU (-18) Rice 2:00 PM
The Mustangs are up to 4-4 and with the remaining schedule ahead this looks like a bowl
team after going 1-11 last year. Rice won 56-27 last year in this in-state match-up but the
Owls are still winless in 2009. Rice has had two weeks to ready for this match-up and SMU
has failed to cover in seven consecutive games as a favorite. Rice has had a lot of success in
this series and even though the results have been terrible this season, the best effort of the
year could be on the way. SMU enters this game off an upset win at Tulsa, winning by two
touchdow ns as a two touchdown underdog. The statistics are awful for Rice, scoring 14 points
per game while allowing more than 45 per game but this spread has ballooned to
unreasonable proportions considering the SMU defense is also quite vulnerable. Starting QB
Levi Mitchell did not play for SMU last week and his return or a second start for freshmen Kyle
Pardon likely leads to worse results this week as the Mustangs were set-up in some favorable
situations last week. Backing Rice is scary but that is the appropriate play here. SMU BY 17
Utep (-6½) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Miners were favored by many to win Conference USA this season but making a bowl
game will be an uphill battle for UTEP, sitting at 3-5 and 2-2 in the conference. UTEP has wins
over Tulsa and Houston however, generally considered the top two teams in the West
division. Last season UTEP overcame an early deficit to win in this series at home but the
Miners are 1-6 ATS in the last seven attempts as road favorites. UTEP is allowing 33 points
per game this season while scoring just 26 points per game but the numbers are much worse
for Tulane. The Wave has just one FBS win on the season and they have now lost S/U and
ATS in each of the last four games. On average Tulane has been out-gained by 100 yards per
game and also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. UTEP is a tough team to
trust but Tulane is 4-13-1 the last 18 games as home underdogs. Tulane has faced a more
challenging schedule but this has been an easy team to run against and the defense could be
worn out after facing very tough offensive match-ups the last three weeks. Look for the Miners
to get a key win to stay in the division race. UTEP BY 9
ALABAMA (-9) Lsu 2:30 PM
While LSU’s early season results seriously brought the team into question as a highly ranked
national team, the loss to Florida seems to have awoken a giant with dominating efforts the
last two weeks. LSU is allowing just 12 points per game and though the offense is averaging
just 325 yards per game the Tigers have posted 73 points the last two games. Alabama beat
LSU in overtime last season in games the Tigers had a yardage advantage but QB Jarrett Lee
threw four interceptions. Alabama will once again enter this game undefeated and this is the
most significant test leading up to the potential SEC championship game with undefeated
teams. If LSU wins this game they would move in position to win the SEC West though it
would be far from a done deal. Alabama has some of the best defensive numbers in the
nation, allowing just 240 yards per game with exceptional numbers against the run. Against a
good LSU run defense the Tide could be forced to pass more but overall Alabama looks well
suited to move on and continue down the perfect path. LSU has had a lot of success in this
series and Alabama has struggled as a home favorite but those trends are fairly meaningless
given the changes these programs have endured in recent years, and with Coach Saban
being a part of the numbers on both sides. ALABAMA BY 16
TEXAS (NL) Central Florida 11:00 AM
Central Florida delivered Sunday night with a frantic comeback and the Knights are on the
way to a winning year now at 5-3. Texas moved to #2 in the BCS standings with a win over
Oklahoma State last week and the Longhorns will have a very clear path to an undefeated
season but could conceivably get caught in those rankings as the schedule strength is going
to diminish. Texas did not have a productive offensive game last week but they were giftwrapped
five turnovers to create an easy win on the scoreboard. Texas has only covered in
one home game this season and UCF is a very solid defensive team that could make this a
somewhat competitive game if Texas does not bring complete focus. UCF has been a very
tough team to run against and although the offensive numbers are fairly pedestrian they have
been a big upgrade from last season. Miami beat UCF just 27-7 in a fairly tight game in
Orlando and in the Knights could hang around in what should be an inflated spread. There will
be some emphasis on ‘style points’ in what could be some very tight voting and computer
rating races but this is a clear flat spot for Texas, leaving conference play and facing an
overmatched foe. TEXAS BY 24
Kent State (-3) AKRON 2:30 PM
Many thought Akron might be a contender in the MAC East this season but the main rival Kent
has taken on that role with a 4-1 MAC start. Kent will have a chanc e to face current division
leader Temple in a few weeks but overlooking Akron would be a big mistake. Akron is just 1-7
but the Zips have struggled through some key injuries and most of the losses have been
competitive efforts against a much higher quality schedule. Last year Akron beat Kent 30-27 in
overtime and this is generally a closer series between two nearby rivals. Kent is actually just
2-10 S/U in the last twelve meetings between these teams and Akron has been a solid home
underdog. Kent is on a roll with a six straight ATS wins but statistically there are some serious
concerns with the viability of the Flashes. Kent is allowing more yards than they have gained
and the offense is scoring just 21 points per game while allowing nearly that many. Akron is a
much better team than the record indicates and they had a solid NIU team on the ropes much
of the way last week. Look for a home underdog cover in this game. AKRON BY 3
AIR FORCE (-17) Army 2:30 PM
Army is just 2-10 in the last 12 meetings between these teams and Air Force can clinch bowl
eligibility with a win this week. Army has had two weeks to get ready for this match-up
however and though the Knights are on a 1-6 ATS run they have been a tough team to pull
away from. Army is allowing just 290 yards per game but the offense has been less productive
and is averaging just 16 points per game despite facing one of the weaker schedules in the
nation. Air Force features a great rushing attack but this has also been a very good defensive
team. The Falcons are allowing just 13 points per game and they have already faced the top
two teams in the MWC. Last season Air Force won just 16-7 last year and the worst loss of
the season for Army came by just 21 points. These teams are familiar with each other and the
extra preparation time may give Army and edge to get back on track after a few tough losses.
AIR FORCE BY 13
Kansas (-2½) KANSAS STATE 12:00 PM
Despite losing last week Kansas State still leads the Big XII North and the Wildcats have
covered in five of the last six games. Kansas was projected by many as the favorite in the
division but the Jayhawks are just 1-3 in league play and this is a team that has failed in five
straight ATS. Kansas won big last season 52-21 but Kansas State is putting together some
impressive play this season. The Wildcats hung tough with Oklahoma last week in a fairly
even statistical game that was close throughout. The Wildcats have won and covered in every
home game this season and after a blowout loss to Texas Tech this is a team playing like it
can win the division. Kansas has faced three tough games the past two weeks and after
blowing an early lead last week with a fourth quarter meltdown it may be tough to bounce
back. Kansas is just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings of this series and Kansas State has
been the better defensive team and a far better rushing team while facing a slightly more
challenging schedule. KANSAS STATE BY 6
Oklahoma (-6) NEBRASKA 12:00 PM
Nebraska got back in the win column last week but it was hardly an impressive showing.
Baylor has been completely out-matched by other Big XII teams in recent weeks but the Bears
lost just 20-10 against Nebraska and the Huskers offense has been very unreliable with just
64 points in four Big XII games and several long stretches of scoring droughts. Nebraska has
great defensive numbers but through a tougher schedule Oklahoma has virtually the sam e
numbers while being a far more dangerous offensive team. Oklahoma beat Nebraska 62-28
last season and although the Sooners are not the same team this is still a team that is five
points away from being undefeated despite playing with an untested back-up QB most of the
season. Nebraska has failed to cover in three consecutive games and the Sooners have been
strong performers as road favorites. Nebraska has already had a distraction this week with
star DT Ndamukong Suh ticketed for a bizarre driving incident and the Huskers can not be
relied on to find the end zone. OKLAHOMA BY 14
PENN STATE (-3½) Ohio State 2:30 PM
This was expected to be the big game in the Big Ten season and although it still has serious
implications it is not the national game that was expected as both teams have losses. Penn
State lost to still undefeated Iowa early in the year, the team Ohio State will face next week.
Penn State has gone on to win five straight since that game but the schedule has been weak
and the wins have not been overly impressive as the Lions trailed most of the way last week
before a late flurry created a misleading final. Ohio State was shocked at Purdue but the
Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games. Last season Penn State won 13-6 in an even
statistical game. Penn State has better numbers on both sides of the ball and some of the
best statistics in the nation but the schedules have not been even close. Ohio State has faced
a much tougher slate and Ohio State is 9-3 ATS in the last twelve meetings as favorites in this
series. Penn State still looks a bit phony even though they are getting strong results and the
Buckeyes should carry some momentum into a huge game next week. OHIO STATE BY 10
Tcu (-24) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:00 PM
At 4-4 it has been a solid turnaround season for San Diego State and the Aztecs are on a rare
winning streak entering this game. The Frogs won 41-7 last year on the road in this series but
TCU is just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games as double-digit road favorites. TCU delivered its first
shutout of the season last year and stole a late cover in the game and the Frogs have the top
ranked defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed. The offense has scored 35 points per
game but the production has been much lower in road games. San Diego State does not have
a serious running game which might ac tually be an advantage in this match-up as the Aztecs
may not waste time trying to run against a very good rush defense. TCU’s three closest
games this season have all been road games and with the showdown with Utah next on the
schedule there could be a little lack of focus this week if a lead is developed early, although
the Frogs did a lot of late scoring last week. San Diego State’s defense has improved
considerably this season and this could be a closer game than most will expect. TCU BY 21
Fresno State (-6½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
The WAC conference has featured four quality teams this season battling on top of the
standings and this will be a key match-up for the pecking order for bowl invitations. Idaho is
already bowl eligible at 7-2 in one of the great turnarounds of the season. This was a close
game last season as Fresno won 45-32 in a game that Idaho actually had a yardage
advantage. The Bulldogs have won four straight after a 1-3 start although last week was a
close call. Idaho rallied for a comeback win last week but after a perfect ATS start to the
season value has caught the Vandals with back-to-back ATS losses. Idaho has covered in five
straight as home underdogs but Fresno State has been the superior statistical team by nearly
every measure through a much tougher schedule. Fresno State has also had to overcome a
major turnover disadvantage on the year and the Bulldogs may be much better than they are
actually regarded. All three of Fresno’s losses have been respectable efforts against high
quality teams and a bit of flat effort last week should be forgiven. FRESNO STATE BY 14
UTAH (-27) New Mexico 5:00 PM
The Lobos moved to 0-8 on the season last week despite playing one of their most
competitiv e games of the season. Utah is quietly 7-1 and moving up the rankings with a big
showdown with TCU waiting next week. The Utes only loss came in a close game at Oregon
which looks like a very high quality loss at this point. These teams share 2-6 ATS records on
the year however. New Mexico has had some recent ATS success in this series and the
Lobos gave Utah one of its closest games last year, losing just 13-10. New Mexico has gone
through a complete transformation however and so far none of the changes have been for the
better. Utah is allowing less than 17 points per game but the offense has only scored 27
points per game there have already been a few narrow escapes this season. New Mexico will
aim to pass in this match-up but Utah has been one of the toughest teams to throw against in
the nation. New Mexico showed some hope last week and covering an inflated spread against
Utah team that is not that high-scoring should be possible. UTAH BY 24
ARIZONA (-30½) Washington State 5:00 PM
All alone in second place in the Pac -10 is an Arizona team that is poised for a great season.
The remaining schedule is far from easy after this game but another bowl trip looks likely in
the works after years of futility. Washington State got a backdoor cover last week and the
Cougars are amazingly 5-1 ATS in the last six games as the spreads have become incredibly
inflated. Washington State is allowing 511 yards per game while the offense is posting 282
yards per game, both among the worst in the nation. This will also be the third straight road
game for Washington State and the distance traveled has been immense after playing in San
Antonio last week. The scoring numbers for Arizona are not great but the Wildcats have outgained
foes by about 130 yards per game and both of these teams have played schedules
that rate among the most difficult in the nation. Arizona is off a bye week and this is a team
that is capable of putting up big numbers but this spread is greatly inflated and the Cougar
cover run can continue though the outcome should never be in doubt. ARIZONA BY 24
CALIFORNIA (-6) Oregon State 6:00 PM
After back-to-back ugly losses, Cal has recuperated with three consecutive wins although last
week’s win was quite narrow. The Bears have not delivered great ATS results and they were
not close against the top two teams in the conference making a strong case that Cal was
overrated to start the year and probably still so. Oregon State continues to be a team that
plays great late season ball. The Beavers are a well coached team that has remained in the
upper echelon of the conference since Coach Riley took back over the program. Oregon State
is 18-11 ATS in the last 29 road games and the Beavers have covered in three of the last four
games and led big in last week’s game before needing a late final score to pullout the win.
Oregon State beat Cal 34-21 last season with a dominant defensive performance. Cal has
been slightly better statistically through fairly even strength schedules but the Bears have
been incredibly fortunate with turnovers and Oregon State will be a very tough team to beat in
an underdog role. This line looks a bit high as Oregon State has been much more impressive
in conference play so far this season. OREGON STATE BY 4
UCLA (-4½) Washington 2:00 PM
The Bruins are favored as the home team but UCLA has now lost five consecutive games and
last week was the first cover in the stretch, a game they trailed severely before a late
comeback. Washington has lost four of its last five games but the Huskies have beaten three
teams that have a combined record of 18-6. Washington has played the top rated schedule in
the nation although UCLA is not far behind as both teams are likely better than the records
indicate in a very tough Pac -10. UCLA has had great recent success in this series but
Washington will be rested off a bye week and the Huskies have been a far superior offensive
team. UCLA’s is regarded as a great defensive team but the numbers have slipped
considerably in recent weeks. UCLA has allowed at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game and
the Bruins have been held under 20 in four of those games. Look for a bounce back from the
Huskies in a key spot as UCLA has not proven capable of scoring enough points to win as a
favorite against a team that has been dangerous. WASHINGTON BY 7
Oregon (-5) STANFORD 2:30 PM
While this is likely a favorable situation for Stanford it remains to be seen whether the Cardinal
are ready to take a major step forward. Stanford is 5-3 with four games remaining but none of
the remaining gam es will provide an easy opportunity for a win. Oregon enters this game off a
huge win over USC and a very clear path to a conference title is ahead for the Ducks with a 5-
0 Pac-10 start. Stanford has covered in each of the last ten home games however and the
Cardinal has had two weeks to focus on this game while Oregon faces a serious letdown spot.
This was a wild game last season as Stanford took a one-point lead with just over two minutes
to go but Oregon rallied for the win. Oregon had four fumbles in that game but managed to
win but it was the lone missed cover in the past seven meetings between these teams for the
Ducks. Stanford is a threat in this match-up as they rush for 205 yards per game. Oregon has
been even more productive on the ground but a home underdog that can run the ball well
makes for a favorable play -on scenario. Oregon may emerge as the elite team they currently
rank as but this will be a serious test. OREGON BY 3
Texas A&M (-5½) COLORADO 12:30 AM
The Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility and this is the game to get at as Oklahoma
and Texas are still left on the schedule. The Aggies have historically been a lousy road team
but the last two weeks have featured very impressive performances from Texas A&M.
Colorado is just 2-6 in another horribly disappointing year and the wheels are nearly
completely off in the Dan Hawkins era. After a big win over Kansas the Buffaloes appeared to
be turning the corner but the last two weeks have featured poor efforts. Colorado rushes for
just 76 yards per game and the defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game. Colorado has
also been plagued by injuries and turnovers and although the Buffaloes have had to face the
Big XII’s toughest schedule the rest of the season offers little promise. A&M is putting up 490
yards per game and although the defense has struggled the Aggies will be a tough team to
keep pace with. Colorado actually had a statistical edge in this match-up last season but
found a way to lose, a recurring common theme for the program . TEXAS A&M BY 11
MIAMI, FL (-13) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Hurricanes barely squeaked by last week but at 6-2 through a challenging schedule
Miami has a nice resume. Miami has often failed in the home favorite role in recent years and
Virginia can be a dangerous underdog but the gap appears distant between these teams this
season. Virginia is averaging just 277 yards of offense per game and the defense has failed
against the rush and then against the pass the last two weeks. Last season Miami needed an
extra session to knock out the Cavs despite a huge yardage advantage but this year the game
does not figure to be as close. Virginia has failed the last two weeks at home and this is not a
game that Miami can afford to overlook. The Hurricanes are allowing slightly more scoring on
defense but the schedule has been more difficult while Virginia is yet to top 20 points in an
ACC game this season while one 47-point effort is making for misleading scoring numbers on
the year. The Hurricanes are due for a convincing win. MIAMI BY 17
TENNESSEE (-25) Memphis 6:00 PM
The Tigers appeared to be in a decent situation last week but turnovers led to another loss in
a disappointing season. Tennessee revived bowl hopes with a win against South Carolina
where fumbles were a big help. The Vols have not won consecutive games all season long
but this should be the best opportunity for a win streak. Tennessee has been a disaster as a
home favorite in recent years but through a difficult schedule new life has been injected into
this program even if the results have not been any better. Memphis is allowing over 30 points
per game and the Tigers have suffered from one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
Memphis has also played a relatively easy schedule and only so much can be blamed on
injuries, which have been a factor this year. Tennessee has played well the last three weeks
and this is a team that has made a lot of progress on offense and will not be afraid to run up
the score with the first opportunity. TENNESSEE BY 31
CLEMSON (-8½) Florida State 11:00 AM
The Tigers currently sit on top of the ACC Atlantic and though it is hard to believe, Florida
State could still be a factor in this division despite starting 0-3 in ACC play. The Seminoles
survived another close game last week in a true shootout as the teams combined for nearly
1,000 yards. Florida State beat Clemson 41-27 last season but a lot has changed for these
teams and it is a series Clemson has had more recent success in. FSU QB Christian Ponder
was banged up last week but the main concern for the Seminoles continues to be a defense
that is allowing nearly 30 points and 428 yards per game. Meanwhile Clemson has
outstanding defensive numbers allowing just 16 points and 278 yards per game. After a 2-3
start Clemson has won three in a row and the Tigers could finish the year on a roll as the
remaining schedule is fairly favorable. CLEMSON BY 21
Houston (-2½) TULSA 6:30 PM
The Cougars have had to survive a few close games but at 7-1 Houston is still a quality team
that must be respected. Tulsa has fallen in three consecutive games to slide in the West
standings but an upset here could make things interesting by giving SMU the outright lead for
the time being. Tulsa has lost three straight close games as the offense in no longer feared
and the defense has not been good enough to win games. Houston is posting incredible
numbers with 563 yards per game and the ATS numbers have been very good even in some
bad situations. The trends favor Tulsa but the Cougars keep finding ways. HOUSTON BY 7
Usc (-11½) ARIZONA STATE 7:00 PM
Coming off a loss that most likely eliminates the Trojans from BCS bowl potential and the Pac-
10 title it could be a tough week for USC. Arizona State has played a soft schedule but the
Sun Devils played Cal tough last week and remain a threat as a home underdog even if USC
had owned this series. These teams have very similar defensive numbers but USC outshines
ASU on offense and has played a far tougher slate. USC is 2-6 ATS on the season but the
overall body of work is still pretty strong for the Trojans and there may be a bit of an
overreaction following one bad game that came in a tough scheduling spot. ASU was badly
out-gained last week and the Trojans should rebound. USC BY 17
MICHIGAN (-3½) Purdue 11:00 AM
While Michigan was impressive early in the year the numbers from the young QB duo have
been terrible in recent games and the Wolverines are 1-4 in Big Ten play following an ugly
loss to Illinois. Purdue faces a tough turnaround after a disastrous performance in Madison
and turnovers continue to haunt an otherwise productive team. Michigan has not been a
strong ATS performer at home but there may be value on the Wolverines coming off back-toback
losses to Penn State and Illinois, two teams that were expected to be at the top of the
Big Ten in the preseason rankings. Purdue has not had success in this series and this could
be a good spot for Michigan to get rolling again. MICHIGAN BY 7
Colorado State (-1½) UNLV 9:00 PM
Promising starts have gone wrong for these teams as CSU is on a six game losing streak and
UNLV has dropped five of the last six and both teams have horrible ATS numbers in that
span. Colorado State has faced a much tougher schedule and the Rams have had the better
of two bad defenses. Last season CSU won 41-28 with a big yardage edge and even though
this is a road game the Rams should have success in this match-up. Colorado State is still
searching for its first MWC win and this will be a great opportunity. The three wins for the
Rams have been much more impressive than the trio of ugly victories for UNLV but backing a
road favorite makes little sense in a match-up of bad teams. UNLV BY 7
Utah State (-3) HAWAII 9:05 PM
The line took a long time to come out on the Hawaii game last week given the QB situation but
Bryant Moniz did end up starting and Hawaii easily covered an inflated spot despite losing the
sixth straight game. Hawaii’s passing game can put up big numbers but the defense is
allowing nearly 33 points per game and the turnover deficit has been huge. Utah State is 6-1
ATS on the season and the Aggies played very close at Fresno State last week. This will be
long travel and a second straight road game but USU has been a productive offensive team
that could really find some opportunities this week. Utah State beat Hawaii 30-14 last season
and QB Borel is doing a great job of taking care of the ball. UTAH STATE BY 10
UAB (-4½) Florida Atlantic 1:00 PM
The Owls blew a significant lead last week, falling to 2-5 despite great offensive numbers.
FSU is allowing 34 points per game but catching UAB off a big upset win might be a promising
situation. UAB is a great rushing team that averages 230 yards per game on the ground and
after playing five of the last six on the road this will be a welcome home game. The defense
for UAB has been very poor and although the Owls have let a few games slip by this should
be a dangerous team that features several veterans in key spots. UAB actually still has a shot
in the C-USA East but this could be a tricky out-of-conference game. Both of these teams are
2-4 S/U and ATS in the last six games but FAU has out-gained its opponent in four of those
games while UAB has been out-gained in all six games. FAU BY 4
NORTH TEXAS (PK) UL-Monroe 3:00 PM
In what was a close back-and-forth game, North Texas pulled away for its second win last
week. Monroe is coming off back-to-back losses but all four losses have come against quality
teams. Last week’s loss to the conference leader Troy was closer than the final score
indicated and Monroe’s solid rushing attack makes the Warhawks a solid road performer.
North Texas has not defeated anyone of consequence and the defensive effort from the Mean
Green was problematic last week. Monroe starting QB Trey Revell has not played in the past
two games and his potential return could be a big boost for the Warhawks. Even in losses the
last two weeks without the starting QB Monroe out-gained Kentucky by 47 yards and was outyarded
against Troy by just 32 yards. Monroe failed to cover in both games but there were
fairly competitive affairs on the road and the competition lightens this week. MONROE BY 7
Troy (-24) WESTERN KENTUCKY 4:00 PM
The Trojans have won and covered in six straight games to take command of the Sun Belt
and the yardage advantages are tremendous in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 0-8 and
rates as the weakest team in the FBS level. The last two years this has been a tightly
contested game however as Troy won by just ten at home last year and only by four on the
road in 2007. Western is 1-7 in the last eight lined home games. TROY BY 28
ARKANSAS STATE (-11½) Louisiana 2:30 PM
The Red Wolves have been the much stronger defensive team as these teams have nearly
identical offensive figures. Arkansas State is just 2-5 while Louisiana is 4-4 but the Red
Wolves grade as the stronger team by most measures and the schedule has been more
difficult. In home games ASU is allowing just 13 points per game and the lone home loss
came by three points against Troy. Louisiana is playing second straight road game and the
home team has won S/U in nine consecutive meetings in this series. Louisiana has actually
played well in both Sun Belt road games and this may be too steep of a line for an ASU team
that is on a 3-11 ATS run. ARKANSAS STATE BY 6
MID TENNESSEE ST (-14) Florida Intl 3:30 PM
MTSU has five wins on the season and the next three games will all be at home. The Blue
Raiders could guarantee themselves a bowl game with a strong finish to the season and this
will be a key game after losing in this match-up last season. FIU has played a slightly tougher
schedule but MTSU has been better by 100 yards per game on defense and 70 yards per
game on offense. The scoring numbers are actually fairly close however and MTSU could
letdown after stealing a big win last week late in the game. MTSU BY 7
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2009
Nevada (-13) SAN JOSE STATE 7:30 PM
The Wolf Pack has covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series and Nevada has
nearly doubled the SJSU offensive production on the year. Defensively the teams are pretty
close but the rushing edge should be tremendous as Nevada averages 319 yards per game.
Nevada is just 2-7 the last nine games as road favorites and overall is 0-3 ATS on the road
this season. SJSU has an awful record but the schedule has been among the toughest in the
nation and the Spartans have played well at home. NEVADA BY 10
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) over Tennessee
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9½) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit
RATING 2 ARIZONA (+3) over Chicago
RATING 1 MIAMI (+10½) over New England
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NY JETS, ST. LOUIS, OAKLAND
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2009
JACKSONVILLE (-6½) Kansas City (42) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars gave up 305 yards on the ground last week and two turnovers disabled the
Jaguars from keeping up in a game that was tied in the second half. Kansas City is just 1-6
coming out of the bye week and Jacksonville has been the more productive team on offense
by about 100 yards per game. Kansas City has faced a more challenging schedule and these
teams have nearly identical defensive numbers. The Jaguars have covered just once in the
last ten games as favorites and the injuries on the defense have really weakened this team.
Although it has been a great struggle overall the last two seasons for the Chiefs, the ATS
numbers have actually been significantly stronger in road games and after three straight ugly
performances the Jaguars are a very tough team to lay points with even against a bad Kansas
City team that has had plenty of problems. JAGUARS BY 4
Baltimore (-3) CINCINNATI (43½) 12:00 PM
Both the Ravens and Bengals have played very tough schedules yet emerge near the midway
point with winning records. While Baltimore got a great effort off the bye week last week , the
Bengals will have that opportunity this week. Cincinnati won the first meeting 17-14 and
statistically the game was not nearly that close as the Bengals had over 400 yards and held
the Raven running game in check. Baltimore actually started the game with an interception
return for a touchdown and still lost at home, giving a lot of credibility to this Cincinnati squad.
In terms of yardage Baltimore has been slightly stronger on both sides of the ball but
Cincinnati is allowing fewer points and the running game has greatly improved. Baltimore is
just 3-7 ATS in the last ten in this series but won 34-3 last year in Cincinnati. The Ravens
played well last week and will be set to even the series. RAVENS BY 4
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) Houston (48) 12:00 PM
The Texans coaching staff made a big statement last week benching RB Steve Slaton and the
move paid off as turnovers ceased and the Texans pulled away late for a road win. This it’s
the first meeting of the season between these teams and the Texans are the only remaining
threat to the Colts for NFC South supremacy. Both games betw een these teams were decided
by less than a touchdown last season but Houston has just one S/U win in the last five years
of this series. The Colts moved to 7-0 last week but it was a struggle and Indianapolis QB
Peyton Manning did not have a touchdown pass. The Texans have now won three straight
including two of those games on the road and Houston has out-gained its opponents in five
straight games. The Texans appear to be living up to some of the promise shown but this will
be a big step. Houston will likely get a few more points than they deserve here as the public
will flock to Indy even after an ATS miss last week. COLTS BY 4
ATLANTA (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
The Falcons are a solid 4-2 through one of the tougher schedules in the league but Atlanta
has been out-gained in four of the last five contests. Washington is 2-5 but the schedule has
actually been rated the weakest in the entire NFL and the two wins came in narrow victories
against teams that are a combined 1-14. Washington has been a dramatically superior
defensive team in this match-up, allowing 75 fewer yards per game and the Falcons offense
has been marginally more productive than Washington despite the scoring differential.
Amazingly Washington has not been out-gained in five of the last six games and with the
Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons off a huge Monday night division game with the
Saints the set-up is favorable for backing Washington. FALCONS BY 3
Green Bay (-9½) TAMPA BAY (44) 12:00 PM
A look at the remaining schedule reveals few favorable opportunities for the Buccaneers to
actually pick up a win. With the Rams and Titans winning last week it is a lonely winless club
but this could actually be one of the best opportunities for Tampa Bay. Green Bay just played
its biggest game of the season with Minnesota visiting Lambeau and the Packers suffered a
devastating loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and the Bucs have had a lot of
success in this series including a 30-21 win at home last season. The Bucs are also on a 16-
8-1 run as home underdogs. Green Bay has been nearly 100 yards superior on both sides of
the ball in terms of yardage but Tampa has faced a tougher schedule and the last home game
featured a competitive game that could have gone either way. PACKERS BY 6
CHICAGO (-3) Arizona (44½) 12:00 PM
The Bears and Packers are tied at 4-3 in the NFC North but while the Packers are 0-2 against
division leading Minnesota, Chicago will have two cracks at the Vikings to get back into the
race. This is a game that could have wild card implications down the road as both playoff
contenders are at 4-3 and falling to .500 would be a major set back at this point in the year.
Arizona does have a weak division to fall back so this is likely a bigger game for Chicago. The
balance from the Bears offense last week has not been the norm this season and little weight
should be given to a win over Cleveland. Turnovers killed the Cardinals last week and Arizona
still came close to winning that game. Arizona is 3-0 S/U on the road. CARDINALS BY 4
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) Miami (47) 12:00 PM
After being perhaps the unluckiest team in the league two weeks ago in blowing a huge lead
against New Orleans, Miami got luck back on its side with a 30-25 win over the Jets last week.
The Dolphins gained a net of 104 yards while allowing 378 yards but three non-offensive
touchdowns including two 100-yard plus kick returns gave Miami the win despite being
dominated in every offense vs. defense match-up. New England has had two weeks to
prepare for this game but too much credit is being given for lopsided wins in the past two
games for the Patriots. Those teams are a combined 1-13 and the Patriots have struggled in
both division games this season. Miami won in Foxboro last season and this can be a tough
team to match-up against as the defense is better than the numbers suggest against one of
the league’s toughest schedules. PATRIOTS BY 4
NEW ORLEANS (NL) Carolina 3:05 PM
When Carolina does not turnover the ball the Panthers can be a dangerous team and getting
back to the running game has paid dividends with wins in three of the last four games after a
0-3 start to the season. The Panthers have outstanding defensive numbers, allowing just 288
yards per game despite giving up nearly 24 points per game, with a lot of that scoring built on
13 Jake Delhomme interceptions. The Saints are rolling but a short week is faced with backto-
back division games which could make this a difficult scenario. Carolina has covered in four
of the last five meetings between these teams and should the Saints win Monday this could be
a very steep line. The Panthers should be an attractive underdog as a good rushing team with
a strong defense also catching a favorable situation set-up. SAINTS BY 7
SEATTLE (-10) Detroit (43½) 3:05 PM
Matthew Stafford returned last week for the Lions but the offense did not fare well, managing
just ten points with two points coming via a safety. Seattle was expected to be a contender in
the NFC or at least the weak NFC West but the Seahawks have lost five of the last six games.
Seattle has significant yardage edges on both sides of the ball and Detroit is allowing nearly
40 points per game on the road. Seattle is still a tough team to beat at home and aside from a
brutal performance against the Cardinals this team has performed well in the home games.
Detroit has managed just 10 points the last two weeks against two marginal defensive teams
and although there was some early season promise for the Lions this will be a tough spot after
letting a winnable game slip away last week. SEAHAWKS BY 17
SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) Tennessee (40½) 3:15 PM
Having Vince Young back at QB looked like the perfect remedy for the Titans although the bye
week and extra preparation played a big role. No knock on Kerry Collins but the Titans were
trying to pass too much and with Young they focus on what they do best, which is running the
ball with two talented young running backs. Tennessee is still a team with some serious
issues and playing on the road could be a different situation. San Franc isco earned some
respect last week playing tough with the Colts but the reality is that the 49ers have lost three
straight games. This will be a desperate 49ers team that features a good defense and an
offense that has shown a lot more promise with Alex Smith at QB and with RB Frank Gore
healthy again. The Titans played well once but they have mostly played poorly this season
and more consistency is needed before backing this team. 49ERS BY 13
NY GIANTS (-3½) San Diego (47) 3:15 PM
The Giants have been exposed with three straight losses and a closer look at the 5-0 start
reveals only one quality win on the year and that win required a late comeback score. The
Giants defense has allowed 112 points in the last three games and New York has still played
one of the weaker schedules in the league. San Diego has been far from impressive this
season and three of the four wins on the year came against the Raiders and Chiefs. All three
losses came against quality teams in competitive games . San Diego is on an 18-5-1 run as
underdogs but the Giants may have some value back after ugly losses as just a small home
favorite while San Diego travels clear across the country. New York has struggled but is still
the superior rushing team and winning this game is a must. GIANTS BY 7
PHILADELPHIA (-3) Dallas (47½) 7:20 PM
With the Giants fading and the Redskins out of the picture the NFC East looks like a two-team
race and this will be a key battle for early season supremacy. Both teams have delivered
impressive wins the past tw o weeks but Dallas has had a very home heavy schedule and only
has wins over Kansas City and Tampa Bay on the road this year. The Eagles have been an
inconsistent team that often refuses to run the ball and turnovers have factored in the results
either way . The Eagles have been nearly 50 yards per game better on defense but the
Cowboys feature one of the top offenses in the NFL, averaging 411 yards per game, even
though Philadelphia actually has better scoring numbers. Philadelphia has covered in five of
the last six meetings between these teams and as Dallas has historically struggled in this
series. Given suspect road performances from the Cowboys, the Eagles should not be
doubted as a small home favorite this week. Aside from the turnover riddled loss to the Saints
the Eagles have dominated at home. EAGLES BY 10
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2009
Pittsburgh (-3) DENVER (38½) 7:35 PM
The perfect start for the Broncos went up in smoke last week losing badly to the Ravens.
Turnovers and special teams play were a factor in the loss as the defense played much better
than 30 points allowed suggests. Some might disregard the 6-0 start after one bad loss but
the Broncos have defeated several quality teams and by most measures rates as the superior
team to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played a much weaker schedule and the best wins,
beating Minnesota and San Diego featured good fortune. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in all
three road games this season, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati and struggling against the 1-6
Lions. Passing teams have had little success against Denver as the Broncos beat Dallas, New
England, and San Diego with strong defensive performances and Baltimore did not get a lot
done in the air last week even with the win. The Steelers are overvalued in this match-up and
Denver should be capable of a bounce-back effort after their worst performance of the
season. This is still an elite AFC team. BRONCOS BY 6
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
East Carolina -6 38 25 47 275 15 28 222 1 Louisiana Tech 57 34 29 47 222 27 47 325 0
Memphis 48.5 19 23 25 84 33 49 313 4 Idaho -2.5 35 25 27 134 25 46 327 3
North Carolina 43.5 20 17 42 181 18 29 131 1 Utah State 62.5 27 25 50 263 20 31 240 0
Virginia Tech -14.5 17 11 33 95 11 23 161 2 Fresno State -17 31 20 30 210 17 27 256 2
West Virginia -3 19 20 35 118 19 32 205 1 Mississippi State 47.5 31 20 45 348 10 17 145 2
South Florida 47.5 30 18 40 189 13 26 232 0 Kentucky -3.5 24 19 48 189 11 19 119 3
Rutgers 44 28 12 31 86 13 25 236 0 Kansas 66.5 21 19 33 71 21 37 187 4
Connecticut -7.5 24 19 30 108 25 56 373 4 Texas Tech -7 42 20 32 105 25 47 253 3
Cincinnati -16.5 28 21 34 127 22 29 295 0 New Mexico 54 20 25 37 109 27 52 277 0
Syracuse 52 7 15 29 101 19 27 182 2 San Diego State -17 23 18 29 50 22 38 253 1
Central Michigan 48 10 22 31 93 24 42 218 2 Washington State 61.5 14 12 26 102 12 23 104 2
Boston College -6 31 18 33 150 18 28 262 0 Notre Dame -28 40 32 48 255 24 33 337 1
Ohio -5.5 20 20 41 155 17 27 161 2 South Carolina 42 13 19 20 65 25 50 300 4
Ball State 44 17 11 38 169 6 9 78 1 Tennessee -6 31 15 40 199 12 24 142 0
Duke 48 28 22 39 81 24 41 343 1 USC -3 20 17 29 140 21 38 187 1
Virginia -7.5 17 14 28 89 13 38 107 2 Oregon 49 47 31 49 391 19 31 222 1
Indiana 47 24 13 27 79 23 41 227 3 Southern Miss 65.5 43 28 47 248 21 35 360 1
Iowa -17 42 21 37 143 13 26 337 6 Houston -7 50 39 33 191 44 54 559 3
Purdue 52.5 0 8 29 60 9 33 81 3 Wyoming 44.5 10 12 25 51 20 31 151 1
Wisconsin -7.5 37 20 53 266 9 19 115 1 Utah -17.5 22 19 38 152 20 28 211 0
Miami, FL -6.5 28 19 21 26 22 43 330 1 Tulane 46 0 14 20 26 26 37 190 1
Wake Forest 51.5 27 33 33 147 35 53 408 4 LSU -36.5 42 25 41 267 13 20 188 1
NC State 65.5 42 24 38 189 20 31 349 3 Michigan State -3.5 34 17 20 124 21 36 236 3
Florida State -10.5 45 27 33 278 26 40 277 2 Minnesota 45.5 42 17 39 89 19 33 416 2
Akron 41 10 12 24 31 12 28 204 1 Arkansas State 50 13 18 25 45 23 41 303 2
Northern Illinois -12 27 18 54 275 10 18 62 0 Louisville -1.5 21 21 37 176 20 40 232 1
New Mexico State 50 0 2 30 40 6 15 22 3 UL-Lafayette 56.5 17 19 44 126 22 36 254 1
Ohio State -44 45 24 49 310 14 33 249 1 Florida Intl -4.5 20 24 49 145 22 43 250 4
Georgia Tech -13.5 56 28 69 404 6 13 193 1 Western Kentucky 63.5 49 21 38 281 15 20 144 2
Vanderbilt 48.5 31 15 29 218 14 24 179 3 North Texas -14.5 68 31 44 321 24 30 262 0
Iowa State 61 10 19 34 169 18 27 155 2 Mid Tenn State 61 27 11 34 239 7 22 90 1
Texas A&M -6 35 31 49 267 23 28 234 2 Florida Atlantic -3 20 28 38 101 28 54 377 2
Mississippi -6.5 20 19 39 219 16 35 175 3 UL-Monroe 58 21 22 34 117 23 37 279 4
Auburn 50.5 33 18 43 175 13 24 226 1 Troy -13.5 42 21 25 50 28 43 378 1
Eastern Michigan 60 27 12 28 89 13 26 259 1 Coastal Carolina 3 12 46 143 5 17 27 2
Arkansas -37 63 23 30 292 19 27 297 3 Clemson NL 49 22 37 252 13 23 148 2
Western Michigan 50.5 14 17 23 38 31 49 255 1 Marshall 43 20 18 36 56 13 28 237 2
Kent State -2.5 26 22 32 104 24 34 373 3 Central Florida -7 21 23 30 59 23 48 342 0
Nebraska -14 20 11 38 145 12 21 128 2
Baylor 46.5 10 18 32 54 19 38 222 3 Monday, Oct. 19
SMU 52.5 27 17 41 75 20 30 354 2 EAGLES -9 27 11 27 122 16 26 140 0
Tulsa -14 13 13 32 106 11 32 216 2 REDSKINS 38 17 21 19 62 29 43 246 4
UAB 64 38 18 41 234 9 16 141 0
UTEP -7.5 33 35 39 188 23 44 397 3 Last Week's NFL Stats
San Jose State 54 7 12 29 92 16 32 131 2 BRONCOS 41.5 7 17 19 66 23 37 134 1
Boise State -36.5 45 26 32 140 25 39 290 1 RAVENS -3.5 30 16 35 125 20 25 167 0
Georgia 49.5 17 16 33 121 11 23 165 4 BROWNS 40 6 9 29 117 7 20 74 5
Florida -16 41 22 40 210 15 21 164 0 BEARS -11.5 30 20 37 170 17 30 199 1
Toledo -5.5 24 25 44 216 18 30 228 2 TEXANS -3.5 31 24 40 186 25 34 253 3
Miami, OH 58 31 29 22 92 31 51 344 1 BILLS 42 10 9 20 97 15 23 107 2
UCLA 48 19 20 29 51 22 34 323 0 VIKINGS 47 38 19 32 111 17 28 244 2
Oregon State -10 26 23 35 144 26 35 319 0 PACKERS -3.5 26 21 19 90 27 42 261 0
Temple 41 27 15 34 274 5 17 37 3 49ERS 45.5 14 16 18 113 19 32 182 2
Navy -6.5 24 14 62 227 2 7 27 1 COLTS -13 18 20 21 61 32 49 349 0
California -6 23 23 30 57 27 45 351 2 DOLPHINS 40.5 30 10 23 52 12 22 52 1
Arizona State 51 21 15 26 82 17 30 247 3 JETS -3.5 25 23 40 127 20 35 251 1
Michigan -7 13 17 43 113 14 24 264 3 RAMS 43.5 17 21 26 150 18 36 212 1
Illinois 53.5 38 20 56 377 8 11 123 0 LIONS -3 10 17 33 127 14 33 162 1
Missouri -3 36 20 45 184 18 30 216 2 SEAHAWKS 46.5 17 18 22 79 22 39 229 2
Colorado 46 17 14 24 -14 22 36 190 4 COWBOYS -10 38 26 29 113 21 36 249 1
Kansas State 47.5 30 20 29 149 20 31 215 1 RAIDERS 41.5 16 13 27 99 14 22 81 1
Oklahoma -28 42 23 35 164 26 37 294 0 CHARGERS -16 24 20 30 100 16 25 246 2
Texas -9 41 17 32 99 17 24 176 1 JAGUARS 44 13 12 16 217 14 29 113 2
Oklahoma State 53.5 14 15 43 134 15 28 143 5 TITANS -3 30 20 49 305 15 18 125 0
Hawaii 68.5 21 23 20 118 29 49 374 2 PANTHERS 44 24 13 44 270 7 15 85 0
Nevada -29 31 25 49 312 12 21 184 1 CARDINALS -10 21 23 17 94 27 46 226 6
UNLV 57 0 7 29 118 9 23 42 2 GIANTS -2 17 21 32 141 20 39 215 3
TCU -35 41 27 48 390 13 22 188 2 EAGLES 43.5 40 17 24 180 17 23 211 2
Air Force -7.5 34 25 59 271 7 12 111 1 FALCONS 55.5
Colorado State 44.5 16 16 38 180 7 19 87 1 SAINTS -12
Penn State -17 34 21 27 163 22 31 274 0
Northwestern 47 13 24 37 119 29 43 252 2
4th Quarter Covers:
Cincinnati was up just 21 -7 struggling to pull
away against Syracuse but scored early in
the 4Q to deliver a covering margin and
Syracuse never came close to threatening
to score late. Iowa trailed 21-7 at the half
and 24-14 entering the 4Q as the Hoosiers
failed to capitalize on four interceptions in
the 3Q and Iowa had two lo ng pass plays to
take the lead 28-24 and added two more
scores late to steal a most improbable
cover, the last coming with just over a
minute left in the game. Akron led Northern
Illinois 10-6 entering the 4Q but NIU took
over with three scores to create a
misleading 27-10 final. Vanderbilt led 31-28
in the 3Q and trailed just 31-42 entering the
4Q but Georgia Tech pulled away with 28
unanswered points for a deceptive blowout
final. Arkansas led 49-0 in the 3Q and 63-20
entering the 4Q but Eastern Michigan put
some late scoring together for a big dog
cover losing 63 -27. Boise State led just 10-7
before two touchdowns in the final minute
before the half. The Broncos needed a
touchdown with 20 seconds remaining to
get the cover in a game that was a bit closer
than the 45-7 final suggests. Florida led just
31-17 entering the 4Q but sealed the ATS
win with a late interception return for a
touchdown. Oregon State led 19-3 in the
second half but UCLA countered with two
late touchdowns and connected on both 2-
point conversions to tie the game with just
over two minutes remaining. Oregon State
went down the field for the winning score
with 44 seconds left but UCLA’s late rally
took the cash. Navy and Temple were tied
at 17 in the 3Q before Navy scored to take
the lead but Temple got the final ten for the
three-point outright dog win. TCU led just
20-0 at the half and up 34 -0 the Frogs
scored with just over a minute remaining to
take a narrow cover. Northwestern led Penn
State 13-10 at the half and the score was
tied en tering the 4Q before 21 unanswered
Penn State points took a narrow improbable
cover as Northwestern failed to get points
twice in the 4Q deep into Lions territory.
Northwestern lost starting QB Kafka in the
2Q which didn’t help the cause. Kansas led
21-14 entering the 4Q but Texas Tech
rallied as original starter Potts took over at
QB in the second half and delivered a 42-21
Tech win although oddly none of the final
four scores came via the pass. Notre Dame
was up 40-7 in the 4Q but Washington State
took a narrow backdoor cover with a late
score. Houston led 33 -22 entering the 4Q
and 40-22 early in the final frame but
Southern Miss rallied for the tie with under a
minute to go. Houston put together a 5-play
77-yard scoring drive to win by seven and
cover most spreads. LSU had two 4Q
scores to turn a 21-0 halftime lead into a 42 -
0 rout and a narrow ATS win. North Texas
and Western Kentucky were tied at 49-49 in
the 4Q but UNT took over with 19 points for
the final margin. Florida Atlantic led 17-13
entering the 4Q and 20 -13 after a field goal
but Middle Tennessee scored the final two
touchdowns including a 74 -yard run to get
the win. Florida Atlantic twice got within the
MTSU 25-yard line in the 4Q but came away
with no points. Troy led just 35-21 entering
the 4Q but got an interception return with
1:20 left in the game to make a comfortable
ATS win after the score appeared to be
settling right near the final number. Though
the spread was not affected Marshall
suffered a brutal late loss in the Sunday
night game as Central Florida rallied from a
20-7 deficit to win 21-20 in the final minutes.
Sunday Buffalo led Houston 10-9 entering
the 4Q but Ryan Moats had three rushing
touchdowns for the Texans to create a
convincing margin of victory. Moats
replaced starter Steve Slaton who had
fumbled earlier in the game. Jacksonville
and Tennessee were tied at 13-13 in the 3Q
but the Titans got a couple of stops and put
together back-to-back scoring drives to ice
the game and pick up win #1 on the year.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Triple Loss Road Chalk
PLAY AGAINST: Any NCAA road favorite that has lost at
least three consecutive games S/U.
64-40-2, 61.5% since 1988
PLAY AGAINST: Kansas, Colorado State
(PLAY ON: Kansas State, UNLV)
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off an ATS win:
22-10, 68.8% since 1988
PLAY AGAINST: Kansas
(PLAY ON: Kansas State)
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Heavy Dogs off Road Wins
PLAY ON: Any NFL team coming off a S/U win on the road,
now dogged by more than seven points.
39-18-1, 68.4% since 1999
PLAY ON: Houston, Miami, Carolina,
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off back-to-back ATS wins:
19-4-1, 82.6% since 1999
Applies to: Miami, (Carolina, if the Saints cover Nov. 2)
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Houston/Tulsa
The ‘under’ has hit in all eight Tulsa games this season but a low number
can’t come out in a game involving Houston, the most productive offense in
the country. Despite scoring no less than 29 points in any game this season
the ‘under’ has hit in three of the last four Houston games and after 93 points
scored in the last game for the Cougars the number on this game can’t come
out too low and there will be a lot of ‘over’ players on a public Houston team.
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Arizona/Chicago
The Bears delivered their best defensive effort of the season last week and
the resurgence of the offense and particularly the running game may have
had a lot to do with the opponent on the field. Arizona turned the ball over six
times and what had been a strong run defense was plowed over for 270
yards. Look for the issues to be addressed and even with six turnovers, last
week’s Cardinals game barely cleared the total.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through November 1)
Home teams are 204-229-8 (25-26-1 last week)
Favorites are 214-229-9 (23-30-1 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 103-109-4 (12-12 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 33-43-1 (4-4 last week)
Home Favorites are 126-147-8 (15-19-1 last week)
Road Favorites are 82-78 (7-10 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 67-64-1 (12-9 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 46-44-1 (3-2 last week)
NFL (through November 1 – Monday’s game pending)
Home teams are 52-57-2 (5-7 last week)
Favorites are 60-51-2 (5-7 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 13-9 (2-3 last week)
Home Favorites are 37-36-2 (4-6 last week)
Road Favorites are 21-15 (1-1 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 16-11 (2-1 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 11-10-1 (2-4 last week)
Over/Unders are 56/55/2 (5/7 last week)
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
NCAA:
Bowling Green is 12-2 L14 on the road – Buffalo is 2-6 L8 at home
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 L5 at NIU – Northern Illinois is 4-12 L16 as home favorites
Miami, OH Is 4-7 L11 as underdogs – Temple is 5-1 L6 as favorites
Virginia Tech is 11-4 L15 as road favorites – East Carolina is 12-4 L16 as home underdogs
Boise State is 16-11 as double-digit road favorites since ’00 – La Tech is 6-0 L6 as home dogs
W. Michigan is 7-14-1 L22 as DD dogs – Michigan St is 14-27-1 as home favorites since ‘01
Connecticut is 30-23 on the road since ’00 – Cincinnati is 13-4 L17 at home
Syracuse is 18-10 vs. Pittsburgh since ’81 – Pittsburgh is 3-8 L11 as home favorites
Northwestern is 14-8 L22 as underdogs – Iowa is 4-13 as double-digit favorites since ‘06
Illinois is 4-9 vs. Minnesota since ’92 – Minnesota is 28-18 as home favorites since ‘98
Louisville is 1-5-1 L7 on the road – West Virginia is 12-21 as home favorites since ‘03
Maryland is 11-3-1 as an underdog vs. NC State – NC State is 4-16 L20 as home favorites
Wake Forest is 12-7 as DD dogs since ’01 – Georgia Tech is 39-53-5 as home favs since ‘80
Duke is 9-5 L14 as North Carolina – North Carolina is 11-22 as favorites since ‘01
Wisconsin is 7-10 L17 as favorites – Indiana is 30-54 as home underdogs since ‘80
South Carolina is 14-5-1 L20 on the road - Arkansas 11-5-1 vs. South Carolina .since ’92
Oklahoma St is 26-18-1 as a road favs since ’83 – Iowa St is 11-17 as home dogs since ‘00
Baylor is 2-6-1 L9 vs. Missouri – Missouri is 2-8 L10 home games
Vanderbilt is 10-4-1 L15 as double-digit underdogs – Florida is 21-25-1 as -21+ favs since ‘98
BYU is 5-0 S/U and ATS L5 vs. Wyoming – Wyoming is 13-5 L18 as home underdogs
Navy is 17-9 vs. Notre Dame since ’82 – Notre Dame is 0-6 L6 as favorites
Rice is 7-2 L9 vs. SMU – SMU is 0-7 L7 as favorites
UTEP is 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Tulane is 4-13-1 L18 as home underdogs
LSU is 9-4-1 L14 at Alabama – Alabama is 7-20 as home favorites since ‘05
Central Florida is 10-16 L26 as double-digit dogs – Texas is 2-5 L7 home games
Kent is 2-10 S/U vs. Akron since ’97 – Akron is 14-9 as home underdogs since ‘98
Army is 2-10 L12 vs. Air Force – Air Force is 9-4 L13 at home
Kansas is 4-11 L15 vs. Kansas State – Kansas State is 2-5 L7 lined home games
Oklahoma is 6-1 L7 as road favorites – Nebraska is 4-1 L5 at home vs. Nebraska
Ohio State is 9-3 L12 as favorites vs. Penn State – Penn State is 5-2 L7 as home underdogs
TCU is 4-9 L13 as double-digit road favorites – San Diego State is 6-4 L10 home games
Fresno State is 4-9 L13 as road favorites – Idaho is 5-0 L5 as home underdogs
New Mexico is 6-3 L9 vs. Utah – Utah is 31-15-2 as double-digit favorites since ‘99
Washington St is 4-9-1 L14 vs. Arizona – Arizona is 14-42 as double-digit favorites since ‘86
Oregon State is 18-11 L29 road games – California is 8-1 L9 as home favorites
Washington is 2-9-1 L12 vs. UCLA – UCLA is 19-14 as favorites since ‘04
Oregon is 6-1 L7 vs. Stanford – Stanford is 5-1 L6 as home underdogs
Texas A&M is 18-33 on the road since ’99 – Colorado is 6-2 L8 vs. Texas A&M
Virginia is 12-8 as underdogs since ’07 – Miami FL is 2-9 L11 as home favorites
Memphis is 9-6 L15 as double-digit dogs – Tennessee is 15-28-1 as home favorites since ‘02
Florida State is 2-7 L9 at Clemson – Clemson is 5-1 L6 home games
Houston is 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Tulsa is 7-2 L9 as home underdogs
USC is 6-2-1 L9 vs. Arizona State – Arizona State is 2-5 L7 as home underdogs
Purdue is 2-6 L8 vs. Michigan – Michigan is 4-9 L13 home games
Colorado State is 4-1 L5 vs. UNLV – UNLV is 6-21 as a favorite since ‘02
Utah State is 11-4-1 L16 road games – Hawaii is 17-10 as home favorites since ‘04
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 L6 as road favorites – UAB is 13-5-2 as home dogs since ‘99
UL-Monroe is 9-6 L15 road games – North Texas is 10-15 at home since ‘05
Troy is 8-3 L11 as road favorites – Western Kentucky is 1-6 L7 lined home games
UL-Lafayette is 2-4 L6 road games – Arkansas State is 9-12 at home since ‘05
Florida International is 8-4 L12 on the road – MTSU is 7-5 L12 at home
Nevada is 2-7 L9 as road favorites – San Jose State is 6-2 L8 as home underdogs
NFL:
Kansas City is 12-6 L18 road games – Jacksonville is 1-9 L10 as favorites
Baltimore is 3-7 L10 vs. Cincinnati – Cincinnati is 3-12 L15 as favorites
Houston is 8-4 L12 vs. Indianapolis – Indianapolis is 4-10 L14 as home favorites
Washington is 11-14-5 as underdogs since ’06 – Atlanta is 9-3 L12 at home
Green Bay is 4-7 L11 vs. Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is 16-8-1 L25 as home underdogs
Arizona is 6-2 L8 road games – Chicago is 10-5-1 L16 as favorites
Miami is 13-4 L17 as dogs of 7 or more – New England is 6-10 L16 as home favorites
Carolina is 10-6 L16 vs. New Orleans – New Orleans is 7-1 L8 as home favorites
Detroit is 6-3 L9 as road underdogs – Seattle is 11-6-1 L18 at home
Tennessee is 1-5 L6 road games – San Francisco is 9-14-2 L25 as home favorites
San Diego is 18-5-1 L24 as underdogs – NY Giants are 6-3-1 L10 as home favorites
Dallas is 7-17-1 L25 vs. Philadelphia – Philadelphia is 8-2 L10 as home favorites
Pittsburgh is 10-17 L27 road games – Denver is 8-20 L28 home games
TREND OF THE WEEK
Stanford is 10-0 L10 home games
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 OHIO STATE (+3½) over Penn State
RATING 4 CLEMSON (-8½) over Florida State
RATING 3 OKLAHOMA (-6) over Nebraska
RATING 2 MARYLAND (+7½) over NC State
RATING 2 PITTSBURGH (-19) over Syracuse
RATING 1 KANSAS STATE (+2½) over Kansas
RATING 1 ALABAMA (-9) over Lsu
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2009
BUFFALO (-3½) Bowling Green 6:00 PM
Both MAC squads are 3-5 entering this Tuesday night match-up but Bowling Green is 2-2 in
MAC play although the Falcons are well out of the division lead. Bowling Green has played a
more difficult schedule than Buffalo and these teams have had the same result every week,
winning the opener before four-game losing streaks. Back-to-back wins then followed but both
enter this game off losses in the last game. Buffalo is the vastly superior running team as
Bowling Green rushes for just 61 yards per game but the Falcons feature one of the most
productive passing attacks in the nation. In a charmed 2008 season Buffalo won at Bowling
Green 40-34 in double-overtime en route to the MAC title. The trends favor Bowling Green as
the Falcons have covered in 12 of the last 14 road games but Buffalo may be the better
defensive team and cold weather should favor the rushing team. BUFFALO BY 7
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2009
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-21) Eastern Michigan 7:30 PM
Both teams received misleading cov ers last week as the Huskies trailed most of the way
against Akron before rallying for a deceptive 27-10 win and cover. Eastern Michigan was
never close against Arkansas but against the reserves the Eagles found a few scoring
opportunities and actually took the ATS win late in the game. NIU is now 5-3 on the season
and comfortably in second place in the MAC West and the Huskies should have a good
opportunity at making a bowl game while they still have a chance to face MAC leader Central
Michigan for the division title. Eastern Michigan is still winless and the best opportunities for
wins have already passed. That said NIU has struggled the last two weeks against losing
teams and also lost to a Toledo team that handed Miami, OH its first win last week. NIU is
strong rushing team but the Huskies have benefited from one of the top turnover margins in
the nation. Although NIU won 37-0 last year, Eastern Michigan has played a much tougher
schedule and Northern Illinois does not appear reliable as a big favorite. NIU BY 17
TEMPLE (-13) Miami, OH 6:30 PM
The Temple Owls are now bowl eligible and now at 4-0 in MAC play leading the East division.
The top East foes remain on the schedule and after a very big non-conference win the Owls
can not afford a letdown against 1-8 Miami. The Redhawks have covered in four of the last
five games and picked up that first victory last week against Toledo. Temple has defeated
Miami each of the last two seasons but has had the yardage edge as turnovers have been a
problem. Miami has one of the worst rushing offenses in the country and this is a team that is
averaging just 13 points per game, with a lot of that scoring coming late in games after the
outcome has been decided. Coming off the first win of the season Miami could be in for a
touch match facing a Temple team that is playing well and winning the games they should
despite opening the season with a FCS loss. Temple’s offense does not suggest blowout
potential but the Owls have played great defense, albeit through a very suspect schedule.
Miami has played the toughest schedule in the MAC and it has shown. TEMPLE BY 20
Virginia Tech (-12½) EAST CAROLINA 6:30 PM
Last season East Carolina started a great season with a 27-22 upset of Virginia Tech, holding
the Hokies to just 243 yards. Both teams also played midweek games last week but met
different results as the Pirates won easily at Memphis and Virginia Tech was upset at home
against North Carolina. Virginia Tech now has three losses to end any hopes of being in the
national picture and they would need a lot of help to make another conference title game
appearance. This is still a Hokies team with elite talent and two of the three losses came to
top ten teams. East Carolina is at the same place as last season through eight games and the
Pirates are in good position to make another C-USA title game appearance. The Pirates can
not let this game take too much out of them with more important conference games ahead.
East Carolina has been out-gained on the season and although the Virginia Tech numbers do
not look dominant they could be poised for a rebound. VIRGINIA TECH BY 14
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2009
Boise State (-20) LOUISIANA TECH 7:00 PM
Louisiana Tech has endured a disappointing year by any measure coming off a bowl season
last year and now 3-5. A golden opportunity for a win was wasted last week as huge lead was
given up in a one-point loss at Idaho. The Bulldogs had decent yardage production against
Boise State last season but lost 38-3 and in 2007 the Broncos barely escaped Ruston in a
narrow win. Louisiana Tech has covered in six straight games as home underdogs and
although Boise State will aim to tack on as much scoring as they can this could be a tough
match-up especially with a greatly improved state rival next on the schedule. It is tough to
justify going against Boise State but this will be long travel and the third road game in four
weeks to a historically difficult venue. BOISE STATE BY 17
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2009
MICHIGAN STATE (-18) Western Michigan 11:00 AM
Michigan State lost to a MAC team earlier this season so there will be no taking this match-up
lightly although the Spartans could be in a questionable emotional state follow ing back-toback
tough losses. Michigan State had Iowa beat two weeks ago before losing on the final
play and last week the Spartans came back after falling behind early but ultimately fell to 4-5
on the year. Western Michigan is also 4-5 and this has been a disappointing Broncos team
that was expected to be a threat in the MAC West. Western is just 2-6 ATS on the season and
lost S/U and ATS against two Big Ten schools early in the year. This will be the second
straight week on the road for Western Michigan and the Broncos are on a 14-22-1 run as
double-digit underdogs. Michigan State has been a very difficult team to run against this
season and there have been a lot mistakes in the passing game for Western despite
experience on the team. If the Spartans were playing well this might be a tough situation and
a game that gets overlooked but with bowl hopes likely hinging on this game a solid
performance should be expected. MICHIGAN STATE BY 24
CINCINNATI (NL) Connecticut 11:00 AM
As if the emotional toll was not enough for the Huskies they have suffered brutal losses the
past two weeks in close games. The Huskies scored to take the lead late last week but then
quickly surrendered the go-ahead score in the final minute. Connecticut had a dominant
yardage edge last week but lost starting QB Cody Endres early in the game and the early
season starter Zach Frazer came in and threw three interceptions. Cincinnati is now 8-0 and
clearly the team to beat in the Big East while in the thick of the national picture. There are
difficult games ahead and last season Connecticut beat Cincinnati 40-16 as turnovers played
a big role. Back-up QB Zach Collaros has played well for the Bearcats and starter Tony Pike
could be available soon. Both teams have been outstanding ATS performers on the year and
Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS the last 17 home games. Connecticut has proven the ability to play a
close game regardless of the foe and the Huskies have played the tougher schedule on the
season. The Bearcats appear on the verge of being overvalued. CINCINNATI BY 10
PITTSBURGH (-19) Syracuse 11:00 AM
The Panthers have had a week off to prepare for this game and soak in a 7-1 start including 4-
0 in conference play. Two big conference tests are waiting at the end of the season and a
non-conference match-up next week against Notre Dame could overshadow this game.
Syracuse has three wins on the season but the Orange sit 0-3 S/U and ATS in Big East play.
Syracuse has featured a solid run defense that will go up against a Pittsburgh rushing attack
that is averaging 179 yards per game. The Pitt defense also leads the nation in sacks while
allowing just 18 points per game and creating a lot of turnovers. This will be the first
conference road game for the Orange and the offense had very little produc tion in the only
other road game faced all year. Although Syracuse has played a slightly tougher schedule
Pittsburgh has been thoroughly impressive at home and the Panthers can keep a great
season going with another win. PITTSBURGH BY 27
IOWA (-17½) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Not only did the Hawkeyes rally back to win last week they inexplicably covered a lofty spread
despite trailing by ten entering the fourth quarter. In just as remarkable fashion Northwestern
failed to cover getting a big number despite being tied entering the fourth quarter. Wildcats QB
Mike Kafka left the game in the second quarter and that contributed to the Northwestern fade
as the Wildcats ventured deep into Penn State territory several times without getting points.
Iowa QB Ricky Stanz i had five interceptions last week but has proven to be a clutch fourth
quarter performer. Northwestern beat Iowa 22-17 last year holding on with an incredible late
game defensive stand to open the Big Ten season. Northwestern is 5-4 but will have an uphill
battle to get back to a bowl game but last week’s effort against a quality opponent was
encouraging. Losing Kafka really hurts Northwestern but the Wildcats are team that generally
hangs around and can put up points. Iowa continues to survive but another close call could be
in order particularly looking ahead to the huge Ohio State game next week. IOWA BY 10
MINNESOTA (-6) Illinois 11:00 AM
The Gophers picked up a big win last week and looks in line for a bowl bid with opportunities
for wins this week and next week against FCS South Dakota State. Last year this team closed
the season on a five game losing streak so getting back in the win column after two ugly
performances was of paramount importance. Illinois has been arguably the most disappointing
team in the nation but everything clicked last week for a 38-13 stunner against Michigan. Even
with all the losses Illinois is a strong rushing team, averaging 197 yards per game on the
ground, nearly double Minnesota’s output. The Gophers played without WR Decker last week
and still passed for 416 yards but this is a team that has been out-gained in seven of nine
games this season. Although this looks like a favorable match-up for Illinois this is a team that
has found plenty of ways to beat itself and will be playing a third road game in four weeks.
While Minnesota is coming off a big home win the letdown risk is greater for an Illinois team
that blew out Michigan last week and picked up its first FBS win of the season. Illinois may be
a play on team in games ahead and the rushing angle is promising but Minnesota has been a
tough home team and Illinois is Coach Brewster’s alma mater. MINNESOTA BY 10
WEST VIRGINIA (-19½) Louisville 11:00 AM
The Mountaineers have failed to cover in five of the last six games but at 6-2 overall and 2-1
in the Big East, West Virginia will still control its own destiny with opportunities against
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the coming weeks. Louisville is struggling through a very
disappointing but not altogether unexpected losing season and the Cardinals have not been
competitive in three conference games. Louisville won last week against Arkansas State but
the offense is scoring just over 20 points per game while posting poor defensive results. West
Virginia ran the ball at will last season in this match-up and another big day on the ground is
likely in order but the Mountaineers have been a flaky favorite and the offense is not scoring
nearly as much as in past years. Louisville is certainly a struggling team but this line could
climb too high and taking the points may make sense. WEST VIRGINIA BY 13
NC STATE (-7½) Maryland 11:00 AM
Maryland is 2-6 on the season but one win came impressively against a pretty strong Clemson
team. The Terps also led late in their other ACC home gam e before falling apart. With two
week s to prepare for this game Maryland should come up with a great game plan to attack a
very suspect NC State defense. Injuries have crippled the Wolfpack secondary and last week
NC State allowed over 550 yards in a 45-42 shootout loss. Maryland has a decent passing
game despite turning the ball over a lot and there should be opportunities in this match-up.
Maryland won on a late field goal last season at home and as an underdog in this series the
Terps are 11-3-1 in the last 15 instances. After another tough loss this could be a tough game
for NC State and the Wolfpack are 4-16 ATS in the last 20 games as home favorites.
Maryland has ugly numbers but they have played a much tougher schedule and with the extra
preparation time this should be a good set-up for the dog. MARYLAND BY 3
GEORGIA TECH (-14½) Wake Forest 11:00 AM
The Yellow Jackets have now won and covered in six straight games to take complete control
of the ACC. Georgia Tech is rushing for 304 yards per game and despite a flat early effort last
week the Yellow Jackets have been good enough to keep putting up points late in games.
Wake Forest is coming off a very tough loss as the Deacons led most of the way against
Miami but end up with a one-point loss despite about a 200 yard edge in the game. The
Demon Deacons have lost three straight games but four of the five losses on the year have
come by three points or less. Wake Forest has played Navy this season and twice last year so
the Deacons will have familiarity with the Georgia Tech offense. Value could be on a Deacons
team that has been very competitive all season but QB Skinner may be out for this game.
Georgia Tech is on a roll right now and is playing to elevate its national standing. Taking the
running team ov er the passing team generally pays off and this is the third road game in four
weeks for Wake Forest coming off a very tough loss to swallow. GEORGIA TECH BY 21
NORTH CAROLINA (-7½) Duke 2:00 PM
UNC delivered a big upset win at home last week against Virginia Tech and this rivalry game
will have bowl eligibility clinched for the winner. Duke has won three straight games, all in
ACC play and the Blue Devils have just one ATS loss on the season and three S/U road wins,
rare feats in recent years. Duke has played the easiest schedule of any ACC team but the
passing offense is posting huge numbers, averaging 325 yards per game in the air. North
Carolina has one the best statistical defenses in the nation, allowing just 265 yards and 16
points per game. The Tar Heels have had overwhelming success in this series but the last
four meetings have all been very tightly contested and it makes sense to back the much more
explosive underdog against a team coming off a huge primetime win. DUKE BY 3
Wisconsin (-11) INDIANA 11:00 AM
Coming off a bye week and back-to-back losses Wisconsin played a near-flawless game to
shutout Purdue 37-0. The Badgers have two Big Ten losses but they came against what
appears to be the top two teams in the conference. Indiana enters this game off two incredibly
depressing losses. The Hoosiers have squandered huge leads the last two weeks and a once
promising shot at bowl eligibility looks rather grim. In four of five Big Ten games Indiana has
played very competitively even if they have just one conference win and this is a team that
has exceeded expectations. Wisconsin has had no trouble with Indiana the last four years and
the outstanding rushing attack for the Badgers should have a lot of success in this match-up.
Through a tougher schedule Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team and unless the
Badgers have turnovers they should deliver a solid win on the road. WISCONSIN BY 14
ARKANSAS (-5) South Carolina 11:20 AM
The Gamecocks have been a very tough road team but last week fumbled in three of their first
five possessions to build an insurmountable deficit. South Carolina out-gained Tennessee last
week and has been an incredibly tough team on defense, allowing just 294 yards per game. In
contrast Arkansas is allowing 410 yards and 27 points per game. The Razorback offense has
had a few big games and has scored at least 40 points in every non-road game this season.
The last two meetings in this series have been double-digit wins for the home team but this
historically has been a tightly contested match-up. Arkansas was much more dominant last
week than the final score suggests but the Razors are just 1-4 S/U in SEC play and this is
team that has allowed at least 19 points in every FBS game. Only twice this season has South
Carolina allowed as many points as Arkansas gives up on average per game and both of
those instances were turnover driven. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 3
Oklahoma State (-7½) IOWA STATE 12:00 PM
The final score looked ugly for Oklahoma State last week but the Cowboys had five turnovers
and held Texas to just 275 yards. Last season OSU won 59-17 at home against Iowa State
but this has been a home dominated series. The Cyclones have delivered five wins this year
but last week lost badly at Texas A&M. Iowa State’s only home loss this season came against
undefeated Iowa. ISU was still without starting QB Austen Arnaud last week and his return
would provide a boost to this offense. Oklahoma State has struggled to protect its QB this
season and Iowa State is an opportunistic defensive team and turnovers will play a pivotal role
in this match-up. With the Cowboys coming off a disappointing effort against Texas this could
be a flat spot and Iowa State has been a surprise team. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 6
MISSOURI (-16) Baylor 1:00 PM
The Tigers bounced back from three straight losses with an impressive win at Colorado last
week. Missouri had a dominant yardage edge in the game and QB Gabbert appeared healthy
with a solid game although he did throw two interceptions. Missouri barely beat Baylor last
season despite being a better overall team than this year by most accounts but the Bears
have struggled with several injuries this year. Baylor has now lost four straight games with
only 34 points scored in that span and the offense will have a hard time keeping up. Baylor is
allowing 385 yards per game but is only giving up 24 points per game but the offense has not
been able to match those numbers. Statistically on offense these teams are closer than one
might think but Missouri has continued production into the Big XII campaign while Baylor has
stalled in recent weeks as the quality of schedule has improved. MISSOURI BY 21
FLORIDA (-32½) Vanderbilt 6:15 PM
The undefeated Gators cruised with little resistance last week and last year Florida beat
Vanderbilt 42-14. While some have criticized the Florida offense as being less explosive than
last season the numbers are still adding up impressively. The Gators are the sixth best
scoring offense in the nation while rushing for 252 yards per game. The passing game has not
had glowing numbers but rarely have the Gators been in a situation where they have needed
to pass. Vanderbilt has lost five straight games after a 2-2 start and there is only one ATS win
in that span. Vanderbilt’s defense is allowing just 22 points per game even after giving 56 last
week and the Commodores held tough with Georgia Tech last week for most of the game.
Florida’s quality of schedule has dramatically improved in recent weeks but on paper they
should be on cruise control the rest of the season. Vanderbilt has put up decent numbers as a
big underdog but going against Florida will have little positive return. FLORIDA BY 41
Byu (-13) WYOMING 1:00 PM
Wyoming has allowed just 72 points in four Mountain West games and the Cowboys have
faced two of the top four teams already. Wyoming played Utah very tough last week on the
road and the Cowboys are 2-0 S/U in MWC home games this season. Wyoming is 13-5 the
last 18 games as home underdogs and BYU could have motivation issues after falling well
short of season goals and national goals that came with the huge opening win over
Oklahoma. Last year BYU won 44-0 at home in this series and the Cougars are 5-0 S/U and
ATS in this series. This is a different Wyoming team however and quietly the Cowboy s have
covered in six of seven lined games this season. BYU has had two weeks to prepare for this
game and recover from a disastrous effort against TCU. BYU has not lived up to expectations
this season and if Wyoming can find the end zone this likely is a tough cover for the Cougars
as Wyoming can be a very tough place to play this time of year. BYU BY 7
NOTRE DAME (NL) Navy 1:30 PM
The Midshipmen were without a few key players last week and a five-game winning streak
was snapped at home against Temple. Notre Dame moved to 6-2 but the Irish are 1-6 ATS in
the last seven games including 0-6 as favorites. Navy has just one recent S/U win in this
series but the ATS results have favored the service academy with a 17-9 ATS mark since ’82.
As usual Navy is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, posting nearly 280 yards per
game on the ground and this will be a true rush vs. pass game as Notre Dame is one of the
top passing teams in the nation. The Irish are still lined up to be BCS bowl bound if they win
out to the chagrin of many and looking past Navy to a huge game with Pittsburgh next week is
a possibility. This is a much bigger game for Navy each year but the Midshipmen are not likely
to be 100 percent. Notre Dame has benefited from one of the top turnov er margins in the
nation as this is a team that could easily have twice as many losses but the Irish may be
undervalued in a series where Navy has had recent success. NOTRE DAME BY 10
SMU (-18) Rice 2:00 PM
The Mustangs are up to 4-4 and with the remaining schedule ahead this looks like a bowl
team after going 1-11 last year. Rice won 56-27 last year in this in-state match-up but the
Owls are still winless in 2009. Rice has had two weeks to ready for this match-up and SMU
has failed to cover in seven consecutive games as a favorite. Rice has had a lot of success in
this series and even though the results have been terrible this season, the best effort of the
year could be on the way. SMU enters this game off an upset win at Tulsa, winning by two
touchdow ns as a two touchdown underdog. The statistics are awful for Rice, scoring 14 points
per game while allowing more than 45 per game but this spread has ballooned to
unreasonable proportions considering the SMU defense is also quite vulnerable. Starting QB
Levi Mitchell did not play for SMU last week and his return or a second start for freshmen Kyle
Pardon likely leads to worse results this week as the Mustangs were set-up in some favorable
situations last week. Backing Rice is scary but that is the appropriate play here. SMU BY 17
Utep (-6½) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Miners were favored by many to win Conference USA this season but making a bowl
game will be an uphill battle for UTEP, sitting at 3-5 and 2-2 in the conference. UTEP has wins
over Tulsa and Houston however, generally considered the top two teams in the West
division. Last season UTEP overcame an early deficit to win in this series at home but the
Miners are 1-6 ATS in the last seven attempts as road favorites. UTEP is allowing 33 points
per game this season while scoring just 26 points per game but the numbers are much worse
for Tulane. The Wave has just one FBS win on the season and they have now lost S/U and
ATS in each of the last four games. On average Tulane has been out-gained by 100 yards per
game and also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. UTEP is a tough team to
trust but Tulane is 4-13-1 the last 18 games as home underdogs. Tulane has faced a more
challenging schedule but this has been an easy team to run against and the defense could be
worn out after facing very tough offensive match-ups the last three weeks. Look for the Miners
to get a key win to stay in the division race. UTEP BY 9
ALABAMA (-9) Lsu 2:30 PM
While LSU’s early season results seriously brought the team into question as a highly ranked
national team, the loss to Florida seems to have awoken a giant with dominating efforts the
last two weeks. LSU is allowing just 12 points per game and though the offense is averaging
just 325 yards per game the Tigers have posted 73 points the last two games. Alabama beat
LSU in overtime last season in games the Tigers had a yardage advantage but QB Jarrett Lee
threw four interceptions. Alabama will once again enter this game undefeated and this is the
most significant test leading up to the potential SEC championship game with undefeated
teams. If LSU wins this game they would move in position to win the SEC West though it
would be far from a done deal. Alabama has some of the best defensive numbers in the
nation, allowing just 240 yards per game with exceptional numbers against the run. Against a
good LSU run defense the Tide could be forced to pass more but overall Alabama looks well
suited to move on and continue down the perfect path. LSU has had a lot of success in this
series and Alabama has struggled as a home favorite but those trends are fairly meaningless
given the changes these programs have endured in recent years, and with Coach Saban
being a part of the numbers on both sides. ALABAMA BY 16
TEXAS (NL) Central Florida 11:00 AM
Central Florida delivered Sunday night with a frantic comeback and the Knights are on the
way to a winning year now at 5-3. Texas moved to #2 in the BCS standings with a win over
Oklahoma State last week and the Longhorns will have a very clear path to an undefeated
season but could conceivably get caught in those rankings as the schedule strength is going
to diminish. Texas did not have a productive offensive game last week but they were giftwrapped
five turnovers to create an easy win on the scoreboard. Texas has only covered in
one home game this season and UCF is a very solid defensive team that could make this a
somewhat competitive game if Texas does not bring complete focus. UCF has been a very
tough team to run against and although the offensive numbers are fairly pedestrian they have
been a big upgrade from last season. Miami beat UCF just 27-7 in a fairly tight game in
Orlando and in the Knights could hang around in what should be an inflated spread. There will
be some emphasis on ‘style points’ in what could be some very tight voting and computer
rating races but this is a clear flat spot for Texas, leaving conference play and facing an
overmatched foe. TEXAS BY 24
Kent State (-3) AKRON 2:30 PM
Many thought Akron might be a contender in the MAC East this season but the main rival Kent
has taken on that role with a 4-1 MAC start. Kent will have a chanc e to face current division
leader Temple in a few weeks but overlooking Akron would be a big mistake. Akron is just 1-7
but the Zips have struggled through some key injuries and most of the losses have been
competitive efforts against a much higher quality schedule. Last year Akron beat Kent 30-27 in
overtime and this is generally a closer series between two nearby rivals. Kent is actually just
2-10 S/U in the last twelve meetings between these teams and Akron has been a solid home
underdog. Kent is on a roll with a six straight ATS wins but statistically there are some serious
concerns with the viability of the Flashes. Kent is allowing more yards than they have gained
and the offense is scoring just 21 points per game while allowing nearly that many. Akron is a
much better team than the record indicates and they had a solid NIU team on the ropes much
of the way last week. Look for a home underdog cover in this game. AKRON BY 3
AIR FORCE (-17) Army 2:30 PM
Army is just 2-10 in the last 12 meetings between these teams and Air Force can clinch bowl
eligibility with a win this week. Army has had two weeks to get ready for this match-up
however and though the Knights are on a 1-6 ATS run they have been a tough team to pull
away from. Army is allowing just 290 yards per game but the offense has been less productive
and is averaging just 16 points per game despite facing one of the weaker schedules in the
nation. Air Force features a great rushing attack but this has also been a very good defensive
team. The Falcons are allowing just 13 points per game and they have already faced the top
two teams in the MWC. Last season Air Force won just 16-7 last year and the worst loss of
the season for Army came by just 21 points. These teams are familiar with each other and the
extra preparation time may give Army and edge to get back on track after a few tough losses.
AIR FORCE BY 13
Kansas (-2½) KANSAS STATE 12:00 PM
Despite losing last week Kansas State still leads the Big XII North and the Wildcats have
covered in five of the last six games. Kansas was projected by many as the favorite in the
division but the Jayhawks are just 1-3 in league play and this is a team that has failed in five
straight ATS. Kansas won big last season 52-21 but Kansas State is putting together some
impressive play this season. The Wildcats hung tough with Oklahoma last week in a fairly
even statistical game that was close throughout. The Wildcats have won and covered in every
home game this season and after a blowout loss to Texas Tech this is a team playing like it
can win the division. Kansas has faced three tough games the past two weeks and after
blowing an early lead last week with a fourth quarter meltdown it may be tough to bounce
back. Kansas is just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings of this series and Kansas State has
been the better defensive team and a far better rushing team while facing a slightly more
challenging schedule. KANSAS STATE BY 6
Oklahoma (-6) NEBRASKA 12:00 PM
Nebraska got back in the win column last week but it was hardly an impressive showing.
Baylor has been completely out-matched by other Big XII teams in recent weeks but the Bears
lost just 20-10 against Nebraska and the Huskers offense has been very unreliable with just
64 points in four Big XII games and several long stretches of scoring droughts. Nebraska has
great defensive numbers but through a tougher schedule Oklahoma has virtually the sam e
numbers while being a far more dangerous offensive team. Oklahoma beat Nebraska 62-28
last season and although the Sooners are not the same team this is still a team that is five
points away from being undefeated despite playing with an untested back-up QB most of the
season. Nebraska has failed to cover in three consecutive games and the Sooners have been
strong performers as road favorites. Nebraska has already had a distraction this week with
star DT Ndamukong Suh ticketed for a bizarre driving incident and the Huskers can not be
relied on to find the end zone. OKLAHOMA BY 14
PENN STATE (-3½) Ohio State 2:30 PM
This was expected to be the big game in the Big Ten season and although it still has serious
implications it is not the national game that was expected as both teams have losses. Penn
State lost to still undefeated Iowa early in the year, the team Ohio State will face next week.
Penn State has gone on to win five straight since that game but the schedule has been weak
and the wins have not been overly impressive as the Lions trailed most of the way last week
before a late flurry created a misleading final. Ohio State was shocked at Purdue but the
Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games. Last season Penn State won 13-6 in an even
statistical game. Penn State has better numbers on both sides of the ball and some of the
best statistics in the nation but the schedules have not been even close. Ohio State has faced
a much tougher slate and Ohio State is 9-3 ATS in the last twelve meetings as favorites in this
series. Penn State still looks a bit phony even though they are getting strong results and the
Buckeyes should carry some momentum into a huge game next week. OHIO STATE BY 10
Tcu (-24) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:00 PM
At 4-4 it has been a solid turnaround season for San Diego State and the Aztecs are on a rare
winning streak entering this game. The Frogs won 41-7 last year on the road in this series but
TCU is just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games as double-digit road favorites. TCU delivered its first
shutout of the season last year and stole a late cover in the game and the Frogs have the top
ranked defense in the nation in terms of yards allowed. The offense has scored 35 points per
game but the production has been much lower in road games. San Diego State does not have
a serious running game which might ac tually be an advantage in this match-up as the Aztecs
may not waste time trying to run against a very good rush defense. TCU’s three closest
games this season have all been road games and with the showdown with Utah next on the
schedule there could be a little lack of focus this week if a lead is developed early, although
the Frogs did a lot of late scoring last week. San Diego State’s defense has improved
considerably this season and this could be a closer game than most will expect. TCU BY 21
Fresno State (-6½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
The WAC conference has featured four quality teams this season battling on top of the
standings and this will be a key match-up for the pecking order for bowl invitations. Idaho is
already bowl eligible at 7-2 in one of the great turnarounds of the season. This was a close
game last season as Fresno won 45-32 in a game that Idaho actually had a yardage
advantage. The Bulldogs have won four straight after a 1-3 start although last week was a
close call. Idaho rallied for a comeback win last week but after a perfect ATS start to the
season value has caught the Vandals with back-to-back ATS losses. Idaho has covered in five
straight as home underdogs but Fresno State has been the superior statistical team by nearly
every measure through a much tougher schedule. Fresno State has also had to overcome a
major turnover disadvantage on the year and the Bulldogs may be much better than they are
actually regarded. All three of Fresno’s losses have been respectable efforts against high
quality teams and a bit of flat effort last week should be forgiven. FRESNO STATE BY 14
UTAH (-27) New Mexico 5:00 PM
The Lobos moved to 0-8 on the season last week despite playing one of their most
competitiv e games of the season. Utah is quietly 7-1 and moving up the rankings with a big
showdown with TCU waiting next week. The Utes only loss came in a close game at Oregon
which looks like a very high quality loss at this point. These teams share 2-6 ATS records on
the year however. New Mexico has had some recent ATS success in this series and the
Lobos gave Utah one of its closest games last year, losing just 13-10. New Mexico has gone
through a complete transformation however and so far none of the changes have been for the
better. Utah is allowing less than 17 points per game but the offense has only scored 27
points per game there have already been a few narrow escapes this season. New Mexico will
aim to pass in this match-up but Utah has been one of the toughest teams to throw against in
the nation. New Mexico showed some hope last week and covering an inflated spread against
Utah team that is not that high-scoring should be possible. UTAH BY 24
ARIZONA (-30½) Washington State 5:00 PM
All alone in second place in the Pac -10 is an Arizona team that is poised for a great season.
The remaining schedule is far from easy after this game but another bowl trip looks likely in
the works after years of futility. Washington State got a backdoor cover last week and the
Cougars are amazingly 5-1 ATS in the last six games as the spreads have become incredibly
inflated. Washington State is allowing 511 yards per game while the offense is posting 282
yards per game, both among the worst in the nation. This will also be the third straight road
game for Washington State and the distance traveled has been immense after playing in San
Antonio last week. The scoring numbers for Arizona are not great but the Wildcats have outgained
foes by about 130 yards per game and both of these teams have played schedules
that rate among the most difficult in the nation. Arizona is off a bye week and this is a team
that is capable of putting up big numbers but this spread is greatly inflated and the Cougar
cover run can continue though the outcome should never be in doubt. ARIZONA BY 24
CALIFORNIA (-6) Oregon State 6:00 PM
After back-to-back ugly losses, Cal has recuperated with three consecutive wins although last
week’s win was quite narrow. The Bears have not delivered great ATS results and they were
not close against the top two teams in the conference making a strong case that Cal was
overrated to start the year and probably still so. Oregon State continues to be a team that
plays great late season ball. The Beavers are a well coached team that has remained in the
upper echelon of the conference since Coach Riley took back over the program. Oregon State
is 18-11 ATS in the last 29 road games and the Beavers have covered in three of the last four
games and led big in last week’s game before needing a late final score to pullout the win.
Oregon State beat Cal 34-21 last season with a dominant defensive performance. Cal has
been slightly better statistically through fairly even strength schedules but the Bears have
been incredibly fortunate with turnovers and Oregon State will be a very tough team to beat in
an underdog role. This line looks a bit high as Oregon State has been much more impressive
in conference play so far this season. OREGON STATE BY 4
UCLA (-4½) Washington 2:00 PM
The Bruins are favored as the home team but UCLA has now lost five consecutive games and
last week was the first cover in the stretch, a game they trailed severely before a late
comeback. Washington has lost four of its last five games but the Huskies have beaten three
teams that have a combined record of 18-6. Washington has played the top rated schedule in
the nation although UCLA is not far behind as both teams are likely better than the records
indicate in a very tough Pac -10. UCLA has had great recent success in this series but
Washington will be rested off a bye week and the Huskies have been a far superior offensive
team. UCLA’s is regarded as a great defensive team but the numbers have slipped
considerably in recent weeks. UCLA has allowed at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game and
the Bruins have been held under 20 in four of those games. Look for a bounce back from the
Huskies in a key spot as UCLA has not proven capable of scoring enough points to win as a
favorite against a team that has been dangerous. WASHINGTON BY 7
Oregon (-5) STANFORD 2:30 PM
While this is likely a favorable situation for Stanford it remains to be seen whether the Cardinal
are ready to take a major step forward. Stanford is 5-3 with four games remaining but none of
the remaining gam es will provide an easy opportunity for a win. Oregon enters this game off a
huge win over USC and a very clear path to a conference title is ahead for the Ducks with a 5-
0 Pac-10 start. Stanford has covered in each of the last ten home games however and the
Cardinal has had two weeks to focus on this game while Oregon faces a serious letdown spot.
This was a wild game last season as Stanford took a one-point lead with just over two minutes
to go but Oregon rallied for the win. Oregon had four fumbles in that game but managed to
win but it was the lone missed cover in the past seven meetings between these teams for the
Ducks. Stanford is a threat in this match-up as they rush for 205 yards per game. Oregon has
been even more productive on the ground but a home underdog that can run the ball well
makes for a favorable play -on scenario. Oregon may emerge as the elite team they currently
rank as but this will be a serious test. OREGON BY 3
Texas A&M (-5½) COLORADO 12:30 AM
The Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility and this is the game to get at as Oklahoma
and Texas are still left on the schedule. The Aggies have historically been a lousy road team
but the last two weeks have featured very impressive performances from Texas A&M.
Colorado is just 2-6 in another horribly disappointing year and the wheels are nearly
completely off in the Dan Hawkins era. After a big win over Kansas the Buffaloes appeared to
be turning the corner but the last two weeks have featured poor efforts. Colorado rushes for
just 76 yards per game and the defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game. Colorado has
also been plagued by injuries and turnovers and although the Buffaloes have had to face the
Big XII’s toughest schedule the rest of the season offers little promise. A&M is putting up 490
yards per game and although the defense has struggled the Aggies will be a tough team to
keep pace with. Colorado actually had a statistical edge in this match-up last season but
found a way to lose, a recurring common theme for the program . TEXAS A&M BY 11
MIAMI, FL (-13) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Hurricanes barely squeaked by last week but at 6-2 through a challenging schedule
Miami has a nice resume. Miami has often failed in the home favorite role in recent years and
Virginia can be a dangerous underdog but the gap appears distant between these teams this
season. Virginia is averaging just 277 yards of offense per game and the defense has failed
against the rush and then against the pass the last two weeks. Last season Miami needed an
extra session to knock out the Cavs despite a huge yardage advantage but this year the game
does not figure to be as close. Virginia has failed the last two weeks at home and this is not a
game that Miami can afford to overlook. The Hurricanes are allowing slightly more scoring on
defense but the schedule has been more difficult while Virginia is yet to top 20 points in an
ACC game this season while one 47-point effort is making for misleading scoring numbers on
the year. The Hurricanes are due for a convincing win. MIAMI BY 17
TENNESSEE (-25) Memphis 6:00 PM
The Tigers appeared to be in a decent situation last week but turnovers led to another loss in
a disappointing season. Tennessee revived bowl hopes with a win against South Carolina
where fumbles were a big help. The Vols have not won consecutive games all season long
but this should be the best opportunity for a win streak. Tennessee has been a disaster as a
home favorite in recent years but through a difficult schedule new life has been injected into
this program even if the results have not been any better. Memphis is allowing over 30 points
per game and the Tigers have suffered from one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
Memphis has also played a relatively easy schedule and only so much can be blamed on
injuries, which have been a factor this year. Tennessee has played well the last three weeks
and this is a team that has made a lot of progress on offense and will not be afraid to run up
the score with the first opportunity. TENNESSEE BY 31
CLEMSON (-8½) Florida State 11:00 AM
The Tigers currently sit on top of the ACC Atlantic and though it is hard to believe, Florida
State could still be a factor in this division despite starting 0-3 in ACC play. The Seminoles
survived another close game last week in a true shootout as the teams combined for nearly
1,000 yards. Florida State beat Clemson 41-27 last season but a lot has changed for these
teams and it is a series Clemson has had more recent success in. FSU QB Christian Ponder
was banged up last week but the main concern for the Seminoles continues to be a defense
that is allowing nearly 30 points and 428 yards per game. Meanwhile Clemson has
outstanding defensive numbers allowing just 16 points and 278 yards per game. After a 2-3
start Clemson has won three in a row and the Tigers could finish the year on a roll as the
remaining schedule is fairly favorable. CLEMSON BY 21
Houston (-2½) TULSA 6:30 PM
The Cougars have had to survive a few close games but at 7-1 Houston is still a quality team
that must be respected. Tulsa has fallen in three consecutive games to slide in the West
standings but an upset here could make things interesting by giving SMU the outright lead for
the time being. Tulsa has lost three straight close games as the offense in no longer feared
and the defense has not been good enough to win games. Houston is posting incredible
numbers with 563 yards per game and the ATS numbers have been very good even in some
bad situations. The trends favor Tulsa but the Cougars keep finding ways. HOUSTON BY 7
Usc (-11½) ARIZONA STATE 7:00 PM
Coming off a loss that most likely eliminates the Trojans from BCS bowl potential and the Pac-
10 title it could be a tough week for USC. Arizona State has played a soft schedule but the
Sun Devils played Cal tough last week and remain a threat as a home underdog even if USC
had owned this series. These teams have very similar defensive numbers but USC outshines
ASU on offense and has played a far tougher slate. USC is 2-6 ATS on the season but the
overall body of work is still pretty strong for the Trojans and there may be a bit of an
overreaction following one bad game that came in a tough scheduling spot. ASU was badly
out-gained last week and the Trojans should rebound. USC BY 17
MICHIGAN (-3½) Purdue 11:00 AM
While Michigan was impressive early in the year the numbers from the young QB duo have
been terrible in recent games and the Wolverines are 1-4 in Big Ten play following an ugly
loss to Illinois. Purdue faces a tough turnaround after a disastrous performance in Madison
and turnovers continue to haunt an otherwise productive team. Michigan has not been a
strong ATS performer at home but there may be value on the Wolverines coming off back-toback
losses to Penn State and Illinois, two teams that were expected to be at the top of the
Big Ten in the preseason rankings. Purdue has not had success in this series and this could
be a good spot for Michigan to get rolling again. MICHIGAN BY 7
Colorado State (-1½) UNLV 9:00 PM
Promising starts have gone wrong for these teams as CSU is on a six game losing streak and
UNLV has dropped five of the last six and both teams have horrible ATS numbers in that
span. Colorado State has faced a much tougher schedule and the Rams have had the better
of two bad defenses. Last season CSU won 41-28 with a big yardage edge and even though
this is a road game the Rams should have success in this match-up. Colorado State is still
searching for its first MWC win and this will be a great opportunity. The three wins for the
Rams have been much more impressive than the trio of ugly victories for UNLV but backing a
road favorite makes little sense in a match-up of bad teams. UNLV BY 7
Utah State (-3) HAWAII 9:05 PM
The line took a long time to come out on the Hawaii game last week given the QB situation but
Bryant Moniz did end up starting and Hawaii easily covered an inflated spot despite losing the
sixth straight game. Hawaii’s passing game can put up big numbers but the defense is
allowing nearly 33 points per game and the turnover deficit has been huge. Utah State is 6-1
ATS on the season and the Aggies played very close at Fresno State last week. This will be
long travel and a second straight road game but USU has been a productive offensive team
that could really find some opportunities this week. Utah State beat Hawaii 30-14 last season
and QB Borel is doing a great job of taking care of the ball. UTAH STATE BY 10
UAB (-4½) Florida Atlantic 1:00 PM
The Owls blew a significant lead last week, falling to 2-5 despite great offensive numbers.
FSU is allowing 34 points per game but catching UAB off a big upset win might be a promising
situation. UAB is a great rushing team that averages 230 yards per game on the ground and
after playing five of the last six on the road this will be a welcome home game. The defense
for UAB has been very poor and although the Owls have let a few games slip by this should
be a dangerous team that features several veterans in key spots. UAB actually still has a shot
in the C-USA East but this could be a tricky out-of-conference game. Both of these teams are
2-4 S/U and ATS in the last six games but FAU has out-gained its opponent in four of those
games while UAB has been out-gained in all six games. FAU BY 4
NORTH TEXAS (PK) UL-Monroe 3:00 PM
In what was a close back-and-forth game, North Texas pulled away for its second win last
week. Monroe is coming off back-to-back losses but all four losses have come against quality
teams. Last week’s loss to the conference leader Troy was closer than the final score
indicated and Monroe’s solid rushing attack makes the Warhawks a solid road performer.
North Texas has not defeated anyone of consequence and the defensive effort from the Mean
Green was problematic last week. Monroe starting QB Trey Revell has not played in the past
two games and his potential return could be a big boost for the Warhawks. Even in losses the
last two weeks without the starting QB Monroe out-gained Kentucky by 47 yards and was outyarded
against Troy by just 32 yards. Monroe failed to cover in both games but there were
fairly competitive affairs on the road and the competition lightens this week. MONROE BY 7
Troy (-24) WESTERN KENTUCKY 4:00 PM
The Trojans have won and covered in six straight games to take command of the Sun Belt
and the yardage advantages are tremendous in this match-up. Western Kentucky is 0-8 and
rates as the weakest team in the FBS level. The last two years this has been a tightly
contested game however as Troy won by just ten at home last year and only by four on the
road in 2007. Western is 1-7 in the last eight lined home games. TROY BY 28
ARKANSAS STATE (-11½) Louisiana 2:30 PM
The Red Wolves have been the much stronger defensive team as these teams have nearly
identical offensive figures. Arkansas State is just 2-5 while Louisiana is 4-4 but the Red
Wolves grade as the stronger team by most measures and the schedule has been more
difficult. In home games ASU is allowing just 13 points per game and the lone home loss
came by three points against Troy. Louisiana is playing second straight road game and the
home team has won S/U in nine consecutive meetings in this series. Louisiana has actually
played well in both Sun Belt road games and this may be too steep of a line for an ASU team
that is on a 3-11 ATS run. ARKANSAS STATE BY 6
MID TENNESSEE ST (-14) Florida Intl 3:30 PM
MTSU has five wins on the season and the next three games will all be at home. The Blue
Raiders could guarantee themselves a bowl game with a strong finish to the season and this
will be a key game after losing in this match-up last season. FIU has played a slightly tougher
schedule but MTSU has been better by 100 yards per game on defense and 70 yards per
game on offense. The scoring numbers are actually fairly close however and MTSU could
letdown after stealing a big win last week late in the game. MTSU BY 7
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2009
Nevada (-13) SAN JOSE STATE 7:30 PM
The Wolf Pack has covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series and Nevada has
nearly doubled the SJSU offensive production on the year. Defensively the teams are pretty
close but the rushing edge should be tremendous as Nevada averages 319 yards per game.
Nevada is just 2-7 the last nine games as road favorites and overall is 0-3 ATS on the road
this season. SJSU has an awful record but the schedule has been among the toughest in the
nation and the Spartans have played well at home. NEVADA BY 10
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) over Tennessee
RATING 4 HOUSTON (+9½) over Indianapolis
RATING 3 SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit
RATING 2 ARIZONA (+3) over Chicago
RATING 1 MIAMI (+10½) over New England
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NY JETS, ST. LOUIS, OAKLAND
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2009
JACKSONVILLE (-6½) Kansas City (42) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars gave up 305 yards on the ground last week and two turnovers disabled the
Jaguars from keeping up in a game that was tied in the second half. Kansas City is just 1-6
coming out of the bye week and Jacksonville has been the more productive team on offense
by about 100 yards per game. Kansas City has faced a more challenging schedule and these
teams have nearly identical defensive numbers. The Jaguars have covered just once in the
last ten games as favorites and the injuries on the defense have really weakened this team.
Although it has been a great struggle overall the last two seasons for the Chiefs, the ATS
numbers have actually been significantly stronger in road games and after three straight ugly
performances the Jaguars are a very tough team to lay points with even against a bad Kansas
City team that has had plenty of problems. JAGUARS BY 4
Baltimore (-3) CINCINNATI (43½) 12:00 PM
Both the Ravens and Bengals have played very tough schedules yet emerge near the midway
point with winning records. While Baltimore got a great effort off the bye week last week , the
Bengals will have that opportunity this week. Cincinnati won the first meeting 17-14 and
statistically the game was not nearly that close as the Bengals had over 400 yards and held
the Raven running game in check. Baltimore actually started the game with an interception
return for a touchdown and still lost at home, giving a lot of credibility to this Cincinnati squad.
In terms of yardage Baltimore has been slightly stronger on both sides of the ball but
Cincinnati is allowing fewer points and the running game has greatly improved. Baltimore is
just 3-7 ATS in the last ten in this series but won 34-3 last year in Cincinnati. The Ravens
played well last week and will be set to even the series. RAVENS BY 4
INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) Houston (48) 12:00 PM
The Texans coaching staff made a big statement last week benching RB Steve Slaton and the
move paid off as turnovers ceased and the Texans pulled away late for a road win. This it’s
the first meeting of the season between these teams and the Texans are the only remaining
threat to the Colts for NFC South supremacy. Both games betw een these teams were decided
by less than a touchdown last season but Houston has just one S/U win in the last five years
of this series. The Colts moved to 7-0 last week but it was a struggle and Indianapolis QB
Peyton Manning did not have a touchdown pass. The Texans have now won three straight
including two of those games on the road and Houston has out-gained its opponents in five
straight games. The Texans appear to be living up to some of the promise shown but this will
be a big step. Houston will likely get a few more points than they deserve here as the public
will flock to Indy even after an ATS miss last week. COLTS BY 4
ATLANTA (NL) Washington 12:00 PM
The Falcons are a solid 4-2 through one of the tougher schedules in the league but Atlanta
has been out-gained in four of the last five contests. Washington is 2-5 but the schedule has
actually been rated the weakest in the entire NFL and the two wins came in narrow victories
against teams that are a combined 1-14. Washington has been a dramatically superior
defensive team in this match-up, allowing 75 fewer yards per game and the Falcons offense
has been marginally more productive than Washington despite the scoring differential.
Amazingly Washington has not been out-gained in five of the last six games and with the
Redskins off a bye week and the Falcons off a huge Monday night division game with the
Saints the set-up is favorable for backing Washington. FALCONS BY 3
Green Bay (-9½) TAMPA BAY (44) 12:00 PM
A look at the remaining schedule reveals few favorable opportunities for the Buccaneers to
actually pick up a win. With the Rams and Titans winning last week it is a lonely winless club
but this could actually be one of the best opportunities for Tampa Bay. Green Bay just played
its biggest game of the season with Minnesota visiting Lambeau and the Packers suffered a
devastating loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week and the Bucs have had a lot of
success in this series including a 30-21 win at home last season. The Bucs are also on a 16-
8-1 run as home underdogs. Green Bay has been nearly 100 yards superior on both sides of
the ball in terms of yardage but Tampa has faced a tougher schedule and the last home game
featured a competitive game that could have gone either way. PACKERS BY 6
CHICAGO (-3) Arizona (44½) 12:00 PM
The Bears and Packers are tied at 4-3 in the NFC North but while the Packers are 0-2 against
division leading Minnesota, Chicago will have two cracks at the Vikings to get back into the
race. This is a game that could have wild card implications down the road as both playoff
contenders are at 4-3 and falling to .500 would be a major set back at this point in the year.
Arizona does have a weak division to fall back so this is likely a bigger game for Chicago. The
balance from the Bears offense last week has not been the norm this season and little weight
should be given to a win over Cleveland. Turnovers killed the Cardinals last week and Arizona
still came close to winning that game. Arizona is 3-0 S/U on the road. CARDINALS BY 4
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) Miami (47) 12:00 PM
After being perhaps the unluckiest team in the league two weeks ago in blowing a huge lead
against New Orleans, Miami got luck back on its side with a 30-25 win over the Jets last week.
The Dolphins gained a net of 104 yards while allowing 378 yards but three non-offensive
touchdowns including two 100-yard plus kick returns gave Miami the win despite being
dominated in every offense vs. defense match-up. New England has had two weeks to
prepare for this game but too much credit is being given for lopsided wins in the past two
games for the Patriots. Those teams are a combined 1-13 and the Patriots have struggled in
both division games this season. Miami won in Foxboro last season and this can be a tough
team to match-up against as the defense is better than the numbers suggest against one of
the league’s toughest schedules. PATRIOTS BY 4
NEW ORLEANS (NL) Carolina 3:05 PM
When Carolina does not turnover the ball the Panthers can be a dangerous team and getting
back to the running game has paid dividends with wins in three of the last four games after a
0-3 start to the season. The Panthers have outstanding defensive numbers, allowing just 288
yards per game despite giving up nearly 24 points per game, with a lot of that scoring built on
13 Jake Delhomme interceptions. The Saints are rolling but a short week is faced with backto-
back division games which could make this a difficult scenario. Carolina has covered in four
of the last five meetings between these teams and should the Saints win Monday this could be
a very steep line. The Panthers should be an attractive underdog as a good rushing team with
a strong defense also catching a favorable situation set-up. SAINTS BY 7
SEATTLE (-10) Detroit (43½) 3:05 PM
Matthew Stafford returned last week for the Lions but the offense did not fare well, managing
just ten points with two points coming via a safety. Seattle was expected to be a contender in
the NFC or at least the weak NFC West but the Seahawks have lost five of the last six games.
Seattle has significant yardage edges on both sides of the ball and Detroit is allowing nearly
40 points per game on the road. Seattle is still a tough team to beat at home and aside from a
brutal performance against the Cardinals this team has performed well in the home games.
Detroit has managed just 10 points the last two weeks against two marginal defensive teams
and although there was some early season promise for the Lions this will be a tough spot after
letting a winnable game slip away last week. SEAHAWKS BY 17
SAN FRANCISCO (-5½) Tennessee (40½) 3:15 PM
Having Vince Young back at QB looked like the perfect remedy for the Titans although the bye
week and extra preparation played a big role. No knock on Kerry Collins but the Titans were
trying to pass too much and with Young they focus on what they do best, which is running the
ball with two talented young running backs. Tennessee is still a team with some serious
issues and playing on the road could be a different situation. San Franc isco earned some
respect last week playing tough with the Colts but the reality is that the 49ers have lost three
straight games. This will be a desperate 49ers team that features a good defense and an
offense that has shown a lot more promise with Alex Smith at QB and with RB Frank Gore
healthy again. The Titans played well once but they have mostly played poorly this season
and more consistency is needed before backing this team. 49ERS BY 13
NY GIANTS (-3½) San Diego (47) 3:15 PM
The Giants have been exposed with three straight losses and a closer look at the 5-0 start
reveals only one quality win on the year and that win required a late comeback score. The
Giants defense has allowed 112 points in the last three games and New York has still played
one of the weaker schedules in the league. San Diego has been far from impressive this
season and three of the four wins on the year came against the Raiders and Chiefs. All three
losses came against quality teams in competitive games . San Diego is on an 18-5-1 run as
underdogs but the Giants may have some value back after ugly losses as just a small home
favorite while San Diego travels clear across the country. New York has struggled but is still
the superior rushing team and winning this game is a must. GIANTS BY 7
PHILADELPHIA (-3) Dallas (47½) 7:20 PM
With the Giants fading and the Redskins out of the picture the NFC East looks like a two-team
race and this will be a key battle for early season supremacy. Both teams have delivered
impressive wins the past tw o weeks but Dallas has had a very home heavy schedule and only
has wins over Kansas City and Tampa Bay on the road this year. The Eagles have been an
inconsistent team that often refuses to run the ball and turnovers have factored in the results
either way . The Eagles have been nearly 50 yards per game better on defense but the
Cowboys feature one of the top offenses in the NFL, averaging 411 yards per game, even
though Philadelphia actually has better scoring numbers. Philadelphia has covered in five of
the last six meetings between these teams and as Dallas has historically struggled in this
series. Given suspect road performances from the Cowboys, the Eagles should not be
doubted as a small home favorite this week. Aside from the turnover riddled loss to the Saints
the Eagles have dominated at home. EAGLES BY 10
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2009
Pittsburgh (-3) DENVER (38½) 7:35 PM
The perfect start for the Broncos went up in smoke last week losing badly to the Ravens.
Turnovers and special teams play were a factor in the loss as the defense played much better
than 30 points allowed suggests. Some might disregard the 6-0 start after one bad loss but
the Broncos have defeated several quality teams and by most measures rates as the superior
team to Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played a much weaker schedule and the best wins,
beating Minnesota and San Diego featured good fortune. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in all
three road games this season, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati and struggling against the 1-6
Lions. Passing teams have had little success against Denver as the Broncos beat Dallas, New
England, and San Diego with strong defensive performances and Baltimore did not get a lot
done in the air last week even with the win. The Steelers are overvalued in this match-up and
Denver should be capable of a bounce-back effort after their worst performance of the
season. This is still an elite AFC team. BRONCOS BY 6
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
East Carolina -6 38 25 47 275 15 28 222 1 Louisiana Tech 57 34 29 47 222 27 47 325 0
Memphis 48.5 19 23 25 84 33 49 313 4 Idaho -2.5 35 25 27 134 25 46 327 3
North Carolina 43.5 20 17 42 181 18 29 131 1 Utah State 62.5 27 25 50 263 20 31 240 0
Virginia Tech -14.5 17 11 33 95 11 23 161 2 Fresno State -17 31 20 30 210 17 27 256 2
West Virginia -3 19 20 35 118 19 32 205 1 Mississippi State 47.5 31 20 45 348 10 17 145 2
South Florida 47.5 30 18 40 189 13 26 232 0 Kentucky -3.5 24 19 48 189 11 19 119 3
Rutgers 44 28 12 31 86 13 25 236 0 Kansas 66.5 21 19 33 71 21 37 187 4
Connecticut -7.5 24 19 30 108 25 56 373 4 Texas Tech -7 42 20 32 105 25 47 253 3
Cincinnati -16.5 28 21 34 127 22 29 295 0 New Mexico 54 20 25 37 109 27 52 277 0
Syracuse 52 7 15 29 101 19 27 182 2 San Diego State -17 23 18 29 50 22 38 253 1
Central Michigan 48 10 22 31 93 24 42 218 2 Washington State 61.5 14 12 26 102 12 23 104 2
Boston College -6 31 18 33 150 18 28 262 0 Notre Dame -28 40 32 48 255 24 33 337 1
Ohio -5.5 20 20 41 155 17 27 161 2 South Carolina 42 13 19 20 65 25 50 300 4
Ball State 44 17 11 38 169 6 9 78 1 Tennessee -6 31 15 40 199 12 24 142 0
Duke 48 28 22 39 81 24 41 343 1 USC -3 20 17 29 140 21 38 187 1
Virginia -7.5 17 14 28 89 13 38 107 2 Oregon 49 47 31 49 391 19 31 222 1
Indiana 47 24 13 27 79 23 41 227 3 Southern Miss 65.5 43 28 47 248 21 35 360 1
Iowa -17 42 21 37 143 13 26 337 6 Houston -7 50 39 33 191 44 54 559 3
Purdue 52.5 0 8 29 60 9 33 81 3 Wyoming 44.5 10 12 25 51 20 31 151 1
Wisconsin -7.5 37 20 53 266 9 19 115 1 Utah -17.5 22 19 38 152 20 28 211 0
Miami, FL -6.5 28 19 21 26 22 43 330 1 Tulane 46 0 14 20 26 26 37 190 1
Wake Forest 51.5 27 33 33 147 35 53 408 4 LSU -36.5 42 25 41 267 13 20 188 1
NC State 65.5 42 24 38 189 20 31 349 3 Michigan State -3.5 34 17 20 124 21 36 236 3
Florida State -10.5 45 27 33 278 26 40 277 2 Minnesota 45.5 42 17 39 89 19 33 416 2
Akron 41 10 12 24 31 12 28 204 1 Arkansas State 50 13 18 25 45 23 41 303 2
Northern Illinois -12 27 18 54 275 10 18 62 0 Louisville -1.5 21 21 37 176 20 40 232 1
New Mexico State 50 0 2 30 40 6 15 22 3 UL-Lafayette 56.5 17 19 44 126 22 36 254 1
Ohio State -44 45 24 49 310 14 33 249 1 Florida Intl -4.5 20 24 49 145 22 43 250 4
Georgia Tech -13.5 56 28 69 404 6 13 193 1 Western Kentucky 63.5 49 21 38 281 15 20 144 2
Vanderbilt 48.5 31 15 29 218 14 24 179 3 North Texas -14.5 68 31 44 321 24 30 262 0
Iowa State 61 10 19 34 169 18 27 155 2 Mid Tenn State 61 27 11 34 239 7 22 90 1
Texas A&M -6 35 31 49 267 23 28 234 2 Florida Atlantic -3 20 28 38 101 28 54 377 2
Mississippi -6.5 20 19 39 219 16 35 175 3 UL-Monroe 58 21 22 34 117 23 37 279 4
Auburn 50.5 33 18 43 175 13 24 226 1 Troy -13.5 42 21 25 50 28 43 378 1
Eastern Michigan 60 27 12 28 89 13 26 259 1 Coastal Carolina 3 12 46 143 5 17 27 2
Arkansas -37 63 23 30 292 19 27 297 3 Clemson NL 49 22 37 252 13 23 148 2
Western Michigan 50.5 14 17 23 38 31 49 255 1 Marshall 43 20 18 36 56 13 28 237 2
Kent State -2.5 26 22 32 104 24 34 373 3 Central Florida -7 21 23 30 59 23 48 342 0
Nebraska -14 20 11 38 145 12 21 128 2
Baylor 46.5 10 18 32 54 19 38 222 3 Monday, Oct. 19
SMU 52.5 27 17 41 75 20 30 354 2 EAGLES -9 27 11 27 122 16 26 140 0
Tulsa -14 13 13 32 106 11 32 216 2 REDSKINS 38 17 21 19 62 29 43 246 4
UAB 64 38 18 41 234 9 16 141 0
UTEP -7.5 33 35 39 188 23 44 397 3 Last Week's NFL Stats
San Jose State 54 7 12 29 92 16 32 131 2 BRONCOS 41.5 7 17 19 66 23 37 134 1
Boise State -36.5 45 26 32 140 25 39 290 1 RAVENS -3.5 30 16 35 125 20 25 167 0
Georgia 49.5 17 16 33 121 11 23 165 4 BROWNS 40 6 9 29 117 7 20 74 5
Florida -16 41 22 40 210 15 21 164 0 BEARS -11.5 30 20 37 170 17 30 199 1
Toledo -5.5 24 25 44 216 18 30 228 2 TEXANS -3.5 31 24 40 186 25 34 253 3
Miami, OH 58 31 29 22 92 31 51 344 1 BILLS 42 10 9 20 97 15 23 107 2
UCLA 48 19 20 29 51 22 34 323 0 VIKINGS 47 38 19 32 111 17 28 244 2
Oregon State -10 26 23 35 144 26 35 319 0 PACKERS -3.5 26 21 19 90 27 42 261 0
Temple 41 27 15 34 274 5 17 37 3 49ERS 45.5 14 16 18 113 19 32 182 2
Navy -6.5 24 14 62 227 2 7 27 1 COLTS -13 18 20 21 61 32 49 349 0
California -6 23 23 30 57 27 45 351 2 DOLPHINS 40.5 30 10 23 52 12 22 52 1
Arizona State 51 21 15 26 82 17 30 247 3 JETS -3.5 25 23 40 127 20 35 251 1
Michigan -7 13 17 43 113 14 24 264 3 RAMS 43.5 17 21 26 150 18 36 212 1
Illinois 53.5 38 20 56 377 8 11 123 0 LIONS -3 10 17 33 127 14 33 162 1
Missouri -3 36 20 45 184 18 30 216 2 SEAHAWKS 46.5 17 18 22 79 22 39 229 2
Colorado 46 17 14 24 -14 22 36 190 4 COWBOYS -10 38 26 29 113 21 36 249 1
Kansas State 47.5 30 20 29 149 20 31 215 1 RAIDERS 41.5 16 13 27 99 14 22 81 1
Oklahoma -28 42 23 35 164 26 37 294 0 CHARGERS -16 24 20 30 100 16 25 246 2
Texas -9 41 17 32 99 17 24 176 1 JAGUARS 44 13 12 16 217 14 29 113 2
Oklahoma State 53.5 14 15 43 134 15 28 143 5 TITANS -3 30 20 49 305 15 18 125 0
Hawaii 68.5 21 23 20 118 29 49 374 2 PANTHERS 44 24 13 44 270 7 15 85 0
Nevada -29 31 25 49 312 12 21 184 1 CARDINALS -10 21 23 17 94 27 46 226 6
UNLV 57 0 7 29 118 9 23 42 2 GIANTS -2 17 21 32 141 20 39 215 3
TCU -35 41 27 48 390 13 22 188 2 EAGLES 43.5 40 17 24 180 17 23 211 2
Air Force -7.5 34 25 59 271 7 12 111 1 FALCONS 55.5
Colorado State 44.5 16 16 38 180 7 19 87 1 SAINTS -12
Penn State -17 34 21 27 163 22 31 274 0
Northwestern 47 13 24 37 119 29 43 252 2
4th Quarter Covers:
Cincinnati was up just 21 -7 struggling to pull
away against Syracuse but scored early in
the 4Q to deliver a covering margin and
Syracuse never came close to threatening
to score late. Iowa trailed 21-7 at the half
and 24-14 entering the 4Q as the Hoosiers
failed to capitalize on four interceptions in
the 3Q and Iowa had two lo ng pass plays to
take the lead 28-24 and added two more
scores late to steal a most improbable
cover, the last coming with just over a
minute left in the game. Akron led Northern
Illinois 10-6 entering the 4Q but NIU took
over with three scores to create a
misleading 27-10 final. Vanderbilt led 31-28
in the 3Q and trailed just 31-42 entering the
4Q but Georgia Tech pulled away with 28
unanswered points for a deceptive blowout
final. Arkansas led 49-0 in the 3Q and 63-20
entering the 4Q but Eastern Michigan put
some late scoring together for a big dog
cover losing 63 -27. Boise State led just 10-7
before two touchdowns in the final minute
before the half. The Broncos needed a
touchdown with 20 seconds remaining to
get the cover in a game that was a bit closer
than the 45-7 final suggests. Florida led just
31-17 entering the 4Q but sealed the ATS
win with a late interception return for a
touchdown. Oregon State led 19-3 in the
second half but UCLA countered with two
late touchdowns and connected on both 2-
point conversions to tie the game with just
over two minutes remaining. Oregon State
went down the field for the winning score
with 44 seconds left but UCLA’s late rally
took the cash. Navy and Temple were tied
at 17 in the 3Q before Navy scored to take
the lead but Temple got the final ten for the
three-point outright dog win. TCU led just
20-0 at the half and up 34 -0 the Frogs
scored with just over a minute remaining to
take a narrow cover. Northwestern led Penn
State 13-10 at the half and the score was
tied en tering the 4Q before 21 unanswered
Penn State points took a narrow improbable
cover as Northwestern failed to get points
twice in the 4Q deep into Lions territory.
Northwestern lost starting QB Kafka in the
2Q which didn’t help the cause. Kansas led
21-14 entering the 4Q but Texas Tech
rallied as original starter Potts took over at
QB in the second half and delivered a 42-21
Tech win although oddly none of the final
four scores came via the pass. Notre Dame
was up 40-7 in the 4Q but Washington State
took a narrow backdoor cover with a late
score. Houston led 33 -22 entering the 4Q
and 40-22 early in the final frame but
Southern Miss rallied for the tie with under a
minute to go. Houston put together a 5-play
77-yard scoring drive to win by seven and
cover most spreads. LSU had two 4Q
scores to turn a 21-0 halftime lead into a 42 -
0 rout and a narrow ATS win. North Texas
and Western Kentucky were tied at 49-49 in
the 4Q but UNT took over with 19 points for
the final margin. Florida Atlantic led 17-13
entering the 4Q and 20 -13 after a field goal
but Middle Tennessee scored the final two
touchdowns including a 74 -yard run to get
the win. Florida Atlantic twice got within the
MTSU 25-yard line in the 4Q but came away
with no points. Troy led just 35-21 entering
the 4Q but got an interception return with
1:20 left in the game to make a comfortable
ATS win after the score appeared to be
settling right near the final number. Though
the spread was not affected Marshall
suffered a brutal late loss in the Sunday
night game as Central Florida rallied from a
20-7 deficit to win 21-20 in the final minutes.
Sunday Buffalo led Houston 10-9 entering
the 4Q but Ryan Moats had three rushing
touchdowns for the Texans to create a
convincing margin of victory. Moats
replaced starter Steve Slaton who had
fumbled earlier in the game. Jacksonville
and Tennessee were tied at 13-13 in the 3Q
but the Titans got a couple of stops and put
together back-to-back scoring drives to ice
the game and pick up win #1 on the year.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Triple Loss Road Chalk
PLAY AGAINST: Any NCAA road favorite that has lost at
least three consecutive games S/U.
64-40-2, 61.5% since 1988
PLAY AGAINST: Kansas, Colorado State
(PLAY ON: Kansas State, UNLV)
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off an ATS win:
22-10, 68.8% since 1988
PLAY AGAINST: Kansas
(PLAY ON: Kansas State)
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Heavy Dogs off Road Wins
PLAY ON: Any NFL team coming off a S/U win on the road,
now dogged by more than seven points.
39-18-1, 68.4% since 1999
PLAY ON: Houston, Miami, Carolina,
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off back-to-back ATS wins:
19-4-1, 82.6% since 1999
Applies to: Miami, (Carolina, if the Saints cover Nov. 2)
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Houston/Tulsa
The ‘under’ has hit in all eight Tulsa games this season but a low number
can’t come out in a game involving Houston, the most productive offense in
the country. Despite scoring no less than 29 points in any game this season
the ‘under’ has hit in three of the last four Houston games and after 93 points
scored in the last game for the Cougars the number on this game can’t come
out too low and there will be a lot of ‘over’ players on a public Houston team.
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Arizona/Chicago
The Bears delivered their best defensive effort of the season last week and
the resurgence of the offense and particularly the running game may have
had a lot to do with the opponent on the field. Arizona turned the ball over six
times and what had been a strong run defense was plowed over for 270
yards. Look for the issues to be addressed and even with six turnovers, last
week’s Cardinals game barely cleared the total.
2009 SEASON TRENDS
NCAA (through November 1)
Home teams are 204-229-8 (25-26-1 last week)
Favorites are 214-229-9 (23-30-1 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 103-109-4 (12-12 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 33-43-1 (4-4 last week)
Home Favorites are 126-147-8 (15-19-1 last week)
Road Favorites are 82-78 (7-10 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 67-64-1 (12-9 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 46-44-1 (3-2 last week)
NFL (through November 1 – Monday’s game pending)
Home teams are 52-57-2 (5-7 last week)
Favorites are 60-51-2 (5-7 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 13-9 (2-3 last week)
Home Favorites are 37-36-2 (4-6 last week)
Road Favorites are 21-15 (1-1 last week)
Teams in 2nd straight road games are 16-11 (2-1 last week)
Teams off bye weeks are 11-10-1 (2-4 last week)
Over/Unders are 56/55/2 (5/7 last week)
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
NCAA:
Bowling Green is 12-2 L14 on the road – Buffalo is 2-6 L8 at home
Eastern Michigan is 4-1 L5 at NIU – Northern Illinois is 4-12 L16 as home favorites
Miami, OH Is 4-7 L11 as underdogs – Temple is 5-1 L6 as favorites
Virginia Tech is 11-4 L15 as road favorites – East Carolina is 12-4 L16 as home underdogs
Boise State is 16-11 as double-digit road favorites since ’00 – La Tech is 6-0 L6 as home dogs
W. Michigan is 7-14-1 L22 as DD dogs – Michigan St is 14-27-1 as home favorites since ‘01
Connecticut is 30-23 on the road since ’00 – Cincinnati is 13-4 L17 at home
Syracuse is 18-10 vs. Pittsburgh since ’81 – Pittsburgh is 3-8 L11 as home favorites
Northwestern is 14-8 L22 as underdogs – Iowa is 4-13 as double-digit favorites since ‘06
Illinois is 4-9 vs. Minnesota since ’92 – Minnesota is 28-18 as home favorites since ‘98
Louisville is 1-5-1 L7 on the road – West Virginia is 12-21 as home favorites since ‘03
Maryland is 11-3-1 as an underdog vs. NC State – NC State is 4-16 L20 as home favorites
Wake Forest is 12-7 as DD dogs since ’01 – Georgia Tech is 39-53-5 as home favs since ‘80
Duke is 9-5 L14 as North Carolina – North Carolina is 11-22 as favorites since ‘01
Wisconsin is 7-10 L17 as favorites – Indiana is 30-54 as home underdogs since ‘80
South Carolina is 14-5-1 L20 on the road - Arkansas 11-5-1 vs. South Carolina .since ’92
Oklahoma St is 26-18-1 as a road favs since ’83 – Iowa St is 11-17 as home dogs since ‘00
Baylor is 2-6-1 L9 vs. Missouri – Missouri is 2-8 L10 home games
Vanderbilt is 10-4-1 L15 as double-digit underdogs – Florida is 21-25-1 as -21+ favs since ‘98
BYU is 5-0 S/U and ATS L5 vs. Wyoming – Wyoming is 13-5 L18 as home underdogs
Navy is 17-9 vs. Notre Dame since ’82 – Notre Dame is 0-6 L6 as favorites
Rice is 7-2 L9 vs. SMU – SMU is 0-7 L7 as favorites
UTEP is 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Tulane is 4-13-1 L18 as home underdogs
LSU is 9-4-1 L14 at Alabama – Alabama is 7-20 as home favorites since ‘05
Central Florida is 10-16 L26 as double-digit dogs – Texas is 2-5 L7 home games
Kent is 2-10 S/U vs. Akron since ’97 – Akron is 14-9 as home underdogs since ‘98
Army is 2-10 L12 vs. Air Force – Air Force is 9-4 L13 at home
Kansas is 4-11 L15 vs. Kansas State – Kansas State is 2-5 L7 lined home games
Oklahoma is 6-1 L7 as road favorites – Nebraska is 4-1 L5 at home vs. Nebraska
Ohio State is 9-3 L12 as favorites vs. Penn State – Penn State is 5-2 L7 as home underdogs
TCU is 4-9 L13 as double-digit road favorites – San Diego State is 6-4 L10 home games
Fresno State is 4-9 L13 as road favorites – Idaho is 5-0 L5 as home underdogs
New Mexico is 6-3 L9 vs. Utah – Utah is 31-15-2 as double-digit favorites since ‘99
Washington St is 4-9-1 L14 vs. Arizona – Arizona is 14-42 as double-digit favorites since ‘86
Oregon State is 18-11 L29 road games – California is 8-1 L9 as home favorites
Washington is 2-9-1 L12 vs. UCLA – UCLA is 19-14 as favorites since ‘04
Oregon is 6-1 L7 vs. Stanford – Stanford is 5-1 L6 as home underdogs
Texas A&M is 18-33 on the road since ’99 – Colorado is 6-2 L8 vs. Texas A&M
Virginia is 12-8 as underdogs since ’07 – Miami FL is 2-9 L11 as home favorites
Memphis is 9-6 L15 as double-digit dogs – Tennessee is 15-28-1 as home favorites since ‘02
Florida State is 2-7 L9 at Clemson – Clemson is 5-1 L6 home games
Houston is 1-6 L7 as road favorites – Tulsa is 7-2 L9 as home underdogs
USC is 6-2-1 L9 vs. Arizona State – Arizona State is 2-5 L7 as home underdogs
Purdue is 2-6 L8 vs. Michigan – Michigan is 4-9 L13 home games
Colorado State is 4-1 L5 vs. UNLV – UNLV is 6-21 as a favorite since ‘02
Utah State is 11-4-1 L16 road games – Hawaii is 17-10 as home favorites since ‘04
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 L6 as road favorites – UAB is 13-5-2 as home dogs since ‘99
UL-Monroe is 9-6 L15 road games – North Texas is 10-15 at home since ‘05
Troy is 8-3 L11 as road favorites – Western Kentucky is 1-6 L7 lined home games
UL-Lafayette is 2-4 L6 road games – Arkansas State is 9-12 at home since ‘05
Florida International is 8-4 L12 on the road – MTSU is 7-5 L12 at home
Nevada is 2-7 L9 as road favorites – San Jose State is 6-2 L8 as home underdogs
NFL:
Kansas City is 12-6 L18 road games – Jacksonville is 1-9 L10 as favorites
Baltimore is 3-7 L10 vs. Cincinnati – Cincinnati is 3-12 L15 as favorites
Houston is 8-4 L12 vs. Indianapolis – Indianapolis is 4-10 L14 as home favorites
Washington is 11-14-5 as underdogs since ’06 – Atlanta is 9-3 L12 at home
Green Bay is 4-7 L11 vs. Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is 16-8-1 L25 as home underdogs
Arizona is 6-2 L8 road games – Chicago is 10-5-1 L16 as favorites
Miami is 13-4 L17 as dogs of 7 or more – New England is 6-10 L16 as home favorites
Carolina is 10-6 L16 vs. New Orleans – New Orleans is 7-1 L8 as home favorites
Detroit is 6-3 L9 as road underdogs – Seattle is 11-6-1 L18 at home
Tennessee is 1-5 L6 road games – San Francisco is 9-14-2 L25 as home favorites
San Diego is 18-5-1 L24 as underdogs – NY Giants are 6-3-1 L10 as home favorites
Dallas is 7-17-1 L25 vs. Philadelphia – Philadelphia is 8-2 L10 as home favorites
Pittsburgh is 10-17 L27 road games – Denver is 8-20 L28 home games
TREND OF THE WEEK
Stanford is 10-0 L10 home games
Rotation #304 Northern Illinois (-21) 3-Stars at -21 or less, 2-Stars up to -23.
Rotation #314 Cincinnati (-17) 3-Stars at -19 or less, 2-Stars up to -20.
Rotation #344 SMU (-17 1/2) 4-Stars at -19 or less, 3-Stars from -19 1/2 to -21, 2-Stars up to -23.
Rotation #358 Nebraska (+5 1/2) 4-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +3 1/2 or +3, 2-Stars dog of less than 3.
Rotation #382 Clemson (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -12, 4-Stars at -7.
Rotation #402 Middle Tennessee St (-11 1/2) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -14.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #306 Temple (-17) Strong Opinion at -17 or less, 2-Stars at -16.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #315 Syracuse (+21 1/2) Strong Opinion at +21 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #320 Minnesota (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #349 Central Florida (+35 1/2) Strong Opinion at +35 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #374 Stanford (+7) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Rotation #314 Cincinnati (-17) 3-Stars at -19 or less, 2-Stars up to -20.
Rotation #344 SMU (-17 1/2) 4-Stars at -19 or less, 3-Stars from -19 1/2 to -21, 2-Stars up to -23.
Rotation #358 Nebraska (+5 1/2) 4-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +3 1/2 or +3, 2-Stars dog of less than 3.
Rotation #382 Clemson (-8 1/2) 3-Stars at -10 or less, 2-Stars from -10 1/2 to -12, 4-Stars at -7.
Rotation #402 Middle Tennessee St (-11 1/2) 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -14.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #306 Temple (-17) Strong Opinion at -17 or less, 2-Stars at -16.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #315 Syracuse (+21 1/2) Strong Opinion at +21 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #320 Minnesota (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #349 Central Florida (+35 1/2) Strong Opinion at +35 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #374 Stanford (+7) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
KELSO STURGEON NEWSLETTER
PITTSBURGH by 28 over Syracuse—Pittsburgh (7-1) comes into this game of a much-needed bye week and will come out firing, despite the fact in must play Notre Dame next week. There is no look-ahead in this Panther squad and when in high gear is going to crush weak teams such as Syracuse (3-5). There is no reason to think this one will be close.
WEST VIRGINIA by 17 over Louisville—West Virginia (6-2) has a tremendous edge in talent and comes into this in a bounce-back mode having lost 30-19 last week at South Florida. WVU has almost every single edge one can have against Louisville (3-5), a team that has shown no ability to hold its own against the very good teams on its schedule.
ARKANSAS by 14 over South Carolina—Arkansas (4-4) would appear to have South Carolina (6-3) right where it wants the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks have a high octane offense that can score in rapid-fire fashion and South Carolina has shown no signs it can keep up with a team such as this. The Gamecocks play outstanding defense but have no offense. The have scored a total of 29 points in their last three games. Arkansas has the ability to make this a shootout and that puts South Carolina in a big hole.
Texas-El Paso by 13 over TULANE—Texas-El Paso (3-5) remains a team of mystery. On one Saturday, the Miners play as if they could beat anybody—as they did in handing Houston its only loss of the season—and then come back and get knocked off by really bad football teams, including UAB last week. However, with that said, UTEP should have little trouble taking care of a Tulane team that has absolutely no offense.
SMU by 35 over Rice—SMU (4-4) is back on the map and should have little trouble taking care of a Rice team that stands 0-8 and is getting blown out by everybody. The Mustangs played their best game of the season last week in winning 27-13 at Tulsa and one sensed the best is yet to come. It’s been a long time since SMU played a decent brand of football and I look for the Ponies to put it altogether for this homecoming crowd.
TEXAS by 45 over Central Florida—Texas (8-0) is set to run the table and stay alive for a chance to play for the national championship it thought it should have played for last season. Rest assured the Longhorns won’t take Central Florida lightly. Texas went to Central Florida two seasons ago to help the Knights dedicate their new stadium and was life-and-death to get out of town with a 38-35 win. It is also of note Central Florida is coming off a short work week, having played Sunday night. A blowout will be the order of the day.
AIR FORCE by 35 over Army—When the service academies get together, they fire their best shots against one another. The problem with the Air Force (5-4) against Army (3-5) matchup is that the former is firing heavy artillery and Army a pea-shooter. There is no doubt the Falcons have superior talent in this one, have competed well against very good teams and should have little trouble getting the better of an improved but by no means good Army team.
KANSAS STATE by 13 over Kansas-When this season began, there is little doubt Kansas (5-3) had the brighter future. Kansas State (5-4) was coming off a bad season, was operating with a new coach, who had inherited a real mess, and appeared to be lucky if it won a game or two. But the new coach—Bill Snyder—had been at Kansas State before and had built the team into a national power. It is obvious he is on his way again. The Wildcats started slowly, were terrible early in the season, but stand 4-2 in their last six games and come into this off a 42-30 loss at Oklahoma. This is the one Kansas State wants to win and there is no reason to think the Wildcats won’t pull it off.
UTAH by 45 over New Mexico—By Utah (7-1) standards, this is a subpar Utes team but it still is a very good squad that has lost only at Oregon, 31-24, and has the talent to destroy the worst New Mexico (0-8) team this handicapper has seen in the last 15 years. Utah is looking for a major bowl bid and knows it needs to win games such as this, with games at TCU and BYU still on the schedule. The figures say bettors can look for total domination from start to finish.
Best Of The Rest
MICHIGAN STATE by 28 over Western Michigan
IOWA by 21 over Northwestern
MINNESOTA by 10 over Illinois
Maryland by 4 over N.C. STATE
Wisconsin by 17 over INDIANA
Oklahoma State by 14 over IOWA STATE
MISSOURI by 21 over Baylor
FLORIDA by 31 over Vanderbilt
NOTRE DAME by 10 over Navy
Kent State by 8 over AKRON
Fresno State by 21 over IDAHO
ARIZONA by 35 over Washington State
Oregon State by 3 over CALIFORNIA
Washington by 7 over UCLA
OREGON by 28 over Stanford
Texas A&M by 14 over COLORADO
TENNESSEE by 45 over Memphis
Florida State by 4 over CLEMSON
Houston by 17 over TULSA
Arizona State by 6 over USC
MICHIGAN by 7 over Purdue
Colorado State by 7 over UNLV
Utah State by 13 over HAWAII
Florida Atlantic b7 6 over UAB
UL-Monroe by 24 over NORTH TEXAS
Troy by 49 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Arkansas State by 13 over UL-Lafayette
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 17 over Florida International
PITTSBURGH by 28 over Syracuse—Pittsburgh (7-1) comes into this game of a much-needed bye week and will come out firing, despite the fact in must play Notre Dame next week. There is no look-ahead in this Panther squad and when in high gear is going to crush weak teams such as Syracuse (3-5). There is no reason to think this one will be close.
WEST VIRGINIA by 17 over Louisville—West Virginia (6-2) has a tremendous edge in talent and comes into this in a bounce-back mode having lost 30-19 last week at South Florida. WVU has almost every single edge one can have against Louisville (3-5), a team that has shown no ability to hold its own against the very good teams on its schedule.
ARKANSAS by 14 over South Carolina—Arkansas (4-4) would appear to have South Carolina (6-3) right where it wants the Gamecocks. The Razorbacks have a high octane offense that can score in rapid-fire fashion and South Carolina has shown no signs it can keep up with a team such as this. The Gamecocks play outstanding defense but have no offense. The have scored a total of 29 points in their last three games. Arkansas has the ability to make this a shootout and that puts South Carolina in a big hole.
Texas-El Paso by 13 over TULANE—Texas-El Paso (3-5) remains a team of mystery. On one Saturday, the Miners play as if they could beat anybody—as they did in handing Houston its only loss of the season—and then come back and get knocked off by really bad football teams, including UAB last week. However, with that said, UTEP should have little trouble taking care of a Tulane team that has absolutely no offense.
SMU by 35 over Rice—SMU (4-4) is back on the map and should have little trouble taking care of a Rice team that stands 0-8 and is getting blown out by everybody. The Mustangs played their best game of the season last week in winning 27-13 at Tulsa and one sensed the best is yet to come. It’s been a long time since SMU played a decent brand of football and I look for the Ponies to put it altogether for this homecoming crowd.
TEXAS by 45 over Central Florida—Texas (8-0) is set to run the table and stay alive for a chance to play for the national championship it thought it should have played for last season. Rest assured the Longhorns won’t take Central Florida lightly. Texas went to Central Florida two seasons ago to help the Knights dedicate their new stadium and was life-and-death to get out of town with a 38-35 win. It is also of note Central Florida is coming off a short work week, having played Sunday night. A blowout will be the order of the day.
AIR FORCE by 35 over Army—When the service academies get together, they fire their best shots against one another. The problem with the Air Force (5-4) against Army (3-5) matchup is that the former is firing heavy artillery and Army a pea-shooter. There is no doubt the Falcons have superior talent in this one, have competed well against very good teams and should have little trouble getting the better of an improved but by no means good Army team.
KANSAS STATE by 13 over Kansas-When this season began, there is little doubt Kansas (5-3) had the brighter future. Kansas State (5-4) was coming off a bad season, was operating with a new coach, who had inherited a real mess, and appeared to be lucky if it won a game or two. But the new coach—Bill Snyder—had been at Kansas State before and had built the team into a national power. It is obvious he is on his way again. The Wildcats started slowly, were terrible early in the season, but stand 4-2 in their last six games and come into this off a 42-30 loss at Oklahoma. This is the one Kansas State wants to win and there is no reason to think the Wildcats won’t pull it off.
UTAH by 45 over New Mexico—By Utah (7-1) standards, this is a subpar Utes team but it still is a very good squad that has lost only at Oregon, 31-24, and has the talent to destroy the worst New Mexico (0-8) team this handicapper has seen in the last 15 years. Utah is looking for a major bowl bid and knows it needs to win games such as this, with games at TCU and BYU still on the schedule. The figures say bettors can look for total domination from start to finish.
Best Of The Rest
MICHIGAN STATE by 28 over Western Michigan
IOWA by 21 over Northwestern
MINNESOTA by 10 over Illinois
Maryland by 4 over N.C. STATE
Wisconsin by 17 over INDIANA
Oklahoma State by 14 over IOWA STATE
MISSOURI by 21 over Baylor
FLORIDA by 31 over Vanderbilt
NOTRE DAME by 10 over Navy
Kent State by 8 over AKRON
Fresno State by 21 over IDAHO
ARIZONA by 35 over Washington State
Oregon State by 3 over CALIFORNIA
Washington by 7 over UCLA
OREGON by 28 over Stanford
Texas A&M by 14 over COLORADO
TENNESSEE by 45 over Memphis
Florida State by 4 over CLEMSON
Houston by 17 over TULSA
Arizona State by 6 over USC
MICHIGAN by 7 over Purdue
Colorado State by 7 over UNLV
Utah State by 13 over HAWAII
Florida Atlantic b7 6 over UAB
UL-Monroe by 24 over NORTH TEXAS
Troy by 49 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
Arkansas State by 13 over UL-Lafayette
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 17 over Florida International
