Sports Memo
DONNIE BLACK
Ole Miss -16 at Memphis O/U 54.5
Sunday, 12:30 pm PT (ESPN) Recommendation: Ole Miss
Traditionally you will not find us laying big chalk that often, but in the
early season we think there are several opportunities to uncover market
inefficiencies. While Ole Miss is overrated based on its strong finish
and victory over Florida last season, we forecast a strong showing
in the non-conference from the Rebels. Meanwhile we project Memphis
to be in that three- to four-win range as evidence suggests they
are in complete rebuilding mode. The Tigers have the fewest returning
starters on both offense and defense in the Eastern Division of Conference-
USA. A key of course in the return of only one offensive line starter
from 2008’s edition. Last season, with a much more experienced group,
Memphis lost to Ole Miss by 17 and was rolled for 216 rushing yards at
a clip of 6.0 yards per rush. Out of conference against BCS competition
the Tigers allowed 39 points per game and there is no reason to forecast
any improvement. Ole Miss will again name the score with the offense
poised to post 40+ points. We project a comfortable cover as the
gap in this once competitive rivalry continues to widen here in 2009.
MARTY OTTO
Baylor at Wake Forest -2.5 O/U 53.5
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT Recommendation: Over
Week one of the college football season kicks off this week as Baylor
and Wake Forest do work for the second straight season. While the Demon
Deacons ran away with a 41-13 win in 2008 this game figures to
be much more competitive, yet still high scoring. Baylor returns eight
starters from an offensive unit that improved to 28 ppg in head coach
Art Briles’ first year in Waco. Quarterback Robert Griffin can beat you
with his arm (15 TD passes/3 INTs last year) and his legs (1,118 yards and
13 TDs rushing). He’ll go against a very green defensive unit from Wake
that lost seven starters and four NFL draft choices from a year ago. I think
Wake’s defense will struggle early on as they attempt to replace quality
starters with unproven commodities. But I do expect Wake’s offense to
produce plenty of points this season. They return their entire offensive
line (119 career starts), have a sound senior quarterback that is quite
accurate with the football, and own a stable of strong running backs
that can move the chains. We’ll call for both teams to move the football
at a swift pace as we play this one up and over a reasonable total.
HELMUT SPORTS
Florida Atlantic at Nebraska -21.5 O/U 61
Saturday, 4 pm PT Recommendation: Nebraska
When it comes to non-conference play, Florida Atlantic has not fared well.
Last season in games against Texas, Minnesota and Michigan State they were
outscored by a combined 106-13. Those three opponents combined to rush
for 688 yards and with a new quarterback in Lincoln, I expect the Huskers
to not only concentrate on the run but dominate as well. FAU lost their top
six tacklers and return only three starters to a defense that was one of the
nation’s worst in 2009. The Owls do have a solid offense that ranked 42nd
overall in total offense and we are sure to see a lot of passing from senior signal
caller Rusty Smith. As mentioned, I look for the Cornhuskers to start the
season off utilizing a more run-oriented offense behind an offensive line that
could be the strength off the team with the entire left side returning. Last
season the Huskers’ pass defense was not great but considering the amount
of high-powered offenses in the Big XII the numbers were skewed. This season
the secondary is deeper and should be able to contain Smith and Co.
With the exception of maybe Troy, no Sun Belt squad deserves this much respect
on the road against a top-tier program. Lay the points with confidence.
BRENT CROW
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama -7 O/U 38
Saturday, 5 pm PT (ABC) Recommendation: Alabama
My first thought here was to grab the touchdown with the underdog Hokies,
but that changed quickly when I really studied this matchup. Virginia Tech will
once again have a solid defense, play great special teams, and do all the little
things to win under coach Frank Beamer. The problem with the Hokies is a
lack of offense, especially in this game against a ferocious Alabama defense.
Tech’s offensive line was mediocre last year, and they do not matchup well at
all against the front seven of the Crimson Tide. The offense lost its best player
in running back Darren Evans (torn ACL) and overall just doesn’t have enough
weapons to put together drives against this defense. Tech’s defense will unquestionably
be strong but in this spot I feel they will eventually will wear down
after what figures to be a lot of three-and-outs by the offense. Bama lost tackle
Andre Smith and quarterback John Parker Wilson, but this program has shown
the ability to reload and still has dynamic players across the board. I don’t expect
a lot of scoring in this game and unless Tech is able to force and capitalize
on turnovers, they may not get an offensive touchdown. Alabama should roll
over an ACC opponent in Atlanta to open the season for a second straight year.
TIM TRUSHEL
Akron +27 at Penn State O/U 58.5
Saturday, 9 am PT Recommendation: Akron
With the extra time to prepare, we like to look at experienced underdogs
from lesser conferences to have success early on. Akron fits the bill. Clearly
if both Penn State and Akron play to peak performance levels the Nittany
Lions will win handily. Yet we have to consider the Zips a live cover in
this range of nearly a four touchdown underdog. This is likely going to be
head coach JD Brookhart’s best team since taking over in 2004. With nine
starters back on offense and a proven commodity behind center in senior
quarterback Chris Jacquemain, we project a strong successful campaign.
The Zips have held their own against the superiorly talented Big Ten teams.
To open each of the last four seasons they have faced a top 20 Big Ten opponent
and have covered all four. They lost to No. 13 Wisconsin by 19, No.
12 Ohio State by 18, No. 19 Penn State by 18 and No. 13 Purdue by 25. This
Akron team is significantly better than any of those Zips outfits of the last
four seasons. Penn State is projected for much success, but with just nine
starters returning and new faces on both sides of the ball, asking for a welloiled
performance in week one could be tough. Take the big underdog.
ERIN RYNNING
Buffalo at UTEP -8 O/U 63
Saturday, 6 pm PT Recommendation: Under
The defending MAC champions travel to El Paso to kickoff their season
against UTEP. It was a magical year in Buffalo last season for Turner Gill after
his squad made a huge leap and averaged 30.3 points per game. This year
isn’t going to come as easy and I look for a real regression from the Bulls’
offense. They lost senior quarterback Drew Willy who was one of the MAC’s
best at his position. Sophomore Zach Maynardwill is going to have his hands
full in this his first road start. Meanwhile, senior running back James Starks
will now miss the season with a bad shoulder. Starks was expected to touch
the ball 25 times a game and would have certainly helped the transition of
a new signal caller. Defensively, Buffalo should continue to improve with
eight starters back. Keep in mind they played in eight overtime periods last
season which helped skew what was still respectable numbers. Mike Price’s
Miners figure to make a big run in Conference-USA this season. Their offense
is going to be good but keep in mind that Buffalo will not play and pass at
the speed of what UTEP will typically see on a weekly basis. This looks like a
great opportunity to take advantage of an overinflated total. Play it under.
TEDDY COVERS
Nevada at Notre Dame -14 O/U 61
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT (NBC) Recommendation: Over
I don’t bet many overs in the first week of the season. Without a preseason, it often
takes a week or two for most college football offenses to work out their early
season kinks, particularly in the red zone. That being said, there are exceptions
to every rule, and this is one matchup that should be a real shootout. The last
time we saw Notre Dame on the field, they hung 49 on Hawaii, as quarterback
Jimmy Clausen threw for more than 400 yards. Clausen is back for his junior year,
as are four starters on the offensive line. Nevada has plenty of experience returning
in their secondary, but the talent is back there is lacking. The Wolfpack
ranked dead last in the country in pass defense last year and gave up 69 points
in their road opener at Missouri. Expect Notre Dame to make plenty of big plays
downfield in this contest. But Nevada too has a strong offense, led by junior
quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Offensive POY in 2008. Kaepernick is a
dual-threat who guided the offense to more than 500 yards and 37 points per
game in 2008. With one of the better offensive lines in the WAC creating holes
and junior running back Vai Taua to share the load, look for the Wolfpack to enjoy
plenty of success on the ground against the rebuilt Notre Dame front seven.
ANDREW LANGE
Central Michigan at Arizona -13.5 O/U 54
Saturday, 7 pm PT Recommendation: Arizona
A news search regarding Arizona football has everything from “quarterback
still yet to be named” to “All-American tight end, questionable for opener”.
That doesn’t even include the extensive “key losses” commentary attached to
every preseason preview. But factors like offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes,
who in two years has quickly established UA into one of the nation’s most balanced
attacks, and a vastly underrated defense that ranked third in the PAC-
10 in yards and points per game allowed in 2008, has us laying the moderate
home chalk Saturday. Central Michigan has unquestionably shown the ability
to hang with the likes of Big Ten softies Purdue and Indiana, but over the last
two seasons, they lost by margins of 39, 56 and 45 to Georgia, Clemson and
Kansas. In its last 10 games against BCS conference schools, CMU allowed no
fewer than 31 points and a 45.7 ppg average. Offensively, even with all-world
quarterback Dan LeFevour, Central posted totals of 17, 14 and 7 in those three
aforementioned games. With 90 degree nighttime heat expected and Arizona
boasting the most depth it has had under head coach Mike Stoops, we’ll ignore
the “key losses” and grab one of the more favorable lines of the weekend.
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