hno:take me to what i want to see. it says nothing about football.MediaFire must be having problems because I have the powerplays in my account and it gives me an error message when i try and open the file so here is the powerplays newsletter
COLLEGE FOOTBALL OCTOBER 1-6, 2009
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1st
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO 67 203 20 3.0 ✔✔
WEST VIRGINIA 224 243 30 2.8 –
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NO PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA 30 COLORADO 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SOUTHERN MISS 228 283 41 2.6 ✔✔
UAB 188 218 27 2.8 –
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Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on October 1st. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save
by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS 41 UAB 27
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2nd
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 122 198 32 2.6 ✔
LOUISVILLE 114 283 23 3.2 –
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NO PLAY: PITTSBURGH 32 LOUISVILLE 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH STATE 135 200 22 3.0 –
BYU 175 375 46 3.0 –
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NO PLAY: BYU 46 UTAH ST 22
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3rd
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USF 136 260 31 3.0 –
SYRACUSE 79 205 14 2.6 ✔
USF is 4-0 SU in this series outscoring Syr 140-33. PP calls for a 17 pt win (line 7) with a 396-284
yd edge, and we expect the Bulls to dominate again.
4★ USF 31 SYRACUSE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EAST CAROLINA 125 228 22 2.3 ✔
MARSHALL 146 228 23 2.7 –
The home team is 7-1 SU and EC is 0-5 ATS as an AF. PP calls for Marshall (+3) to get the upset
with The Herd also having the ydg edge and we agree.
4★ MARSHALL (+) 23 EAST CAROLINA 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHWESTERN 128 185 22 3.2 –
PURDUE 167 260 34 2.9 –
PU is 9-3 SU and the favorite is 6-2-1 and has won the last 3 in this series. PP says PU will win
by 12 (line 6) with a 427-313 yd edge and we agree.
4★ PURDUE 34 NORTHWESTERN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WISCONSIN 143 205 27 2.8 ✔
MINNESOTA 142 280 26 3.0 –
UW has won the L5 SU and Minny is on a 2-5 ATS run in this series but has covered the last 2.
PP calls for UW to win in a close one but Minny has the yardage edge 422-348.
NO PLAY: WISCONSIN 27 MINNESOTA 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NC STATE 135 223 25 1.3 ✔✔
WAKE FOREST 176 238 25 2.2 –
PP calls for a draw but gives WF a 414-358 yd edge. The line also opened up at Even.
NO PLAY: NC STATE 25 WAKE FOREST 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CLEMSON 193 190 32 1.7 –
MARYLAND 82 215 13 3.6 ✔
Clemson dominated as our Sept 5★ a few weeks ago and PP shows them dominating again
with a 19 pt win over Maryland (line 13’) and a 383-297 yd edge. We like Clemson.
4.5★ CLEMSON 32 MARYLAND 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA 65 153 10 3.3 –
NORTH CAROLINA 131 198 25 2.6 ✔✔
The home tm is 17-5 ATS and VA is 9-1 ATS in this series. PP calls for a 15 pt win by NC which
is right around the line.
NO PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA 25 VIRGINIA 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA STATE 103 215 23 2.7 ✔
BOSTON COLLEGE 137 205 24 3.2 –
The home team is 0-4 SU & ATS in this series with 3 straight upsets. PP calls for BC (+5’) to win
by 1 with the ydg edge and we agree.
4★ BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 24 FLORIDA STATE 23
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in
the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 168 193 35 1.6 ✔✔✔✔
BUFFALO 118 228 21 2.2 –
CM is 3-1 SU & ATS at Buffalo. We won a 3★ LPP by going against Buffalo LW and won a 3★
Small College Play on CM, so we will agree with PP here.
4★ CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35 BUFFALO 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 196 275 34 2.0 –
BALL STATE 149 195 28 2.9 ✔✔
PP calls this one close to the line showing UT with a 6 pt win over BSU but gives the Rockets a 471-
344 yd edge. UT is one of the most experienced tms in the NCAA while BSU is one of the least exp.
NO PLAY: TOLEDO 34 BALL STATE 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ALABAMA 205 178 31 1.8 ✔
KENTUCKY 76 168 16 2.1 –
This is a massive sandwich for Bama off Ark with Ole Miss on deck and UK loves to give ranked
teams a hard time in Lexington. PP says UK will cover (+17) and we think it’s worth a look.
2★ KENTUCKY (+) 16 ALABAMA 31
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSISSIPPI 213 133 24 2.7 ✔✔✔✔
VANDERBILT 133 158 11 2.5 –
Ole Miss had a few extra days to prepare and is off a disappointing loss. VU upset UM LY, so they
will look for revenge. PP calls for a 13 pt win by UM (line 9’) with a 213-133 rush edge.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 24 VANDERBILT 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 161 275 46 1.1 ✔✔✔✔
MIAMI, OH 109 275 11 3.4 –
PP is calling for a 35 pt blowout win by Cincy in the 114th Battle for the Victory Bell. The yardage
edge isn’t that great (436-384), but the huge sp tms edge should give Cincy a few more pts.
4★ CINCINNATI 46 MIAMI, OH 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEMPLE 184 145 30 2.6 –
EASTERN MICHIGAN 116 240 22 2.6 –
Temple cashed a nice 3★ LPP winner for us last week with their 37-13 domination of Buffalo and
now PP predicts an 8 pt win over EM (line 4’). We’ll stick with Temple.
3★ TEMPLE 30 E MICHIGAN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULANE 93 188 18 2.7 –
ARMY 278 68 26 2.5 ✔
Last year Army beat Tulane by 31 but PP predicts only an 8 pt win (line 6) with a 346-281 yd
edge. We’ll pass on this for now.
NO PLAY: ARMY 26 TULANE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA TECH 249 170 36 1.5 ✔✔✔✔✔
DUKE 86 215 13 2.8 –
Duke is 1-7 ATS vs VT. PP predicts a 23 pt win by VT (-15), but the ydg forecast is closer than
expected (419-301). VT is in a massive sandwich off their big win over Miami with BC on deck.
NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 36 DUKE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON 83 230 17 2.6 –
NOTRE DAME 207 270 31 1.5 ✔✔
ND is 3-0 SU/ATS vs UW this decade and PP calls for ND to have a 477-313 yd edge in 14 pt
win (line 13’). ND’s QB Clausen, WR Floyd and RB Allen are all injured, so we will pass.
NO PLAY: NOTRE DAME 31 WASHINGTON 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LSU 92 193 27 1.4 –
GEORGIA 134 293 32 3.2 ✔
UGA has faced a killer’s row (Ok St, SC, Ark & Ariz St) and it doesn’t get easier TW. PP says
UGA will win by 5 (line 2’) but gives the Dawgs a 427-285 yd edge and we like the Dawgs.
2★ GEORGIA 32 LSU 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AIR FORCE 230 128 26 1.7 ✔✔
NAVY 266 83 23 2.4 –
Navy has won 6 straight in this rivalry including 5 outright upsets. PP says AF will pull this out with
a 3 pt win and a 358-349 yd edge. There is no line on this gm as of presstime (AF QB Jefferson ??).
NO PLAY: AIR FORCE 26 NAVY 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GEORGIA TECH 251 110 28 1.8 –
MISSISSIPPI STATE 154 195 21 3.0 –
MSU is 5-0 ATS as a HD but LY lost to GT 38-7, their worst non-conf loss since ‘69. PP calls for
MSU to lose by a TD (line 4’) with GT having 251 on the ground and we agree.
2★ GEORGIA TECH 28 MISSISSIPPI STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OKLAHOMA 130 248 30 2.7 –
MIAMI, FL 101 223 20 3.4 ✔
PP calls for OK to win by 10 (line 6’) with just a 378-324 yd edge. This is OK QB Jones’ fi rst road
start and we agree with the yards and like Miami here.
NO PLAY: OKLAHOMA 30 MIAMI, FL 20
5
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PENN STATE 155 203 26 2.5 –
ILLINOIS 161 233 20 2.7 –
Penn St is 13-3 SU vs IL but the Illini have covered 3 in a row. PP calls for PSU to win by 6 which
is right at the line but gives IL a 394-358 yd edge.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 26 ILLINOIS 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN 175 158 29 2.4 ✔
MICHIGAN STATE 146 283 30 2.6 –
The straight up winner is 13-3 ATS in this series. PP says that MSU will pull out a 1 pt win over
UM and gives MSU a 429-333 yd edge, but we disagree and like Michigan.
NO PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE 30 MICHIGAN 29
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WESTERN MICHIGAN 108 250 20 2.4 ✔✔
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 207 215 27 1.6 –
The Huskies knocked off Purdue as a 12 pt dog then LW fell to Idaho as a 15.5 pt fav. PP has N
Ill fi nishing with a 422-358 yd edge but like the offense of WM which will always keep it close.
NO PLAY: NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO 156 205 25 2.3 ✔✔
BOWLING GREEN 114 255 22 2.4 –
It’s nice when you like an underdog and PP picks OU to win outright. The yards are close with a
369-361 projection but OU has the special teams edge and wins their conference opener.
4★ OHIO 25 BOWLING GREEN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UNLV 88 265 27 2.1 ✔✔
NEVADA 242 255 32 2.2 –
UNLV has had a couple of hard luck losses already and expect improvement from them. Nevada
has also disappointed with an 0-3 SU and ATS start. We like the dog in this instate rivalry.
NO PLAY: NEVADA 32 UNLV 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO STATE 126 245 29 2.4 –
IDAHO 149 220 27 2.4 –
Nothing fl uky about Idaho’s 4-0 ATS start. Colorado St is on a B2B road trip and the Vandals are
a HD with the yards almost exactly even. The Kibbie Dome is a tough venue for 1st timers.
3★ IDAHO (+) 27 COLORADO STATE 29
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA STATE 156 188 22 3.1 ✔
KANSAS STATE 170 263 28 2.5 –
The wrong team looks to be favored in this B12 matchup. KSt has dropped both games vs IA
teams but PP’s thinks they’ll rebound just fi ne. The Wildcats fi nish with a 433-344 yd edge.
4.5★ KANSAS STATE 28 IOWA STATE 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OREGON STATE 83 185 16 2.6 –
ARIZONA STATE 107 220 26 2.1 ✔
ASU is now 3-0 ATS on the season while OSU is 0-4 ATS. Don’t expect much offense this week
in Tempe as PP is projecting the Sun Devils to fi nish with a 327-268 yard edge.
NO PLAY: ARIZONA STATE 26 OREGON STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON STATE 65 165 11 3.4 –
OREGON 265 260 42 2.6 ✔
While WSU covered by 24 pts LW Oregon topped that by covering by 44 pts. The Cougars did
only gain 231 yds LW and this week PP is calling for Oregon to fi nish with a 525-230 yard edge.
NO PLAY: OREGON 42 WASHINGTON STATE 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
KENT STATE 118 100 14 3.7 –
BAYLOR 262 230 38 2.9 ✔✔✔
Tough news from the Bears camp as All-Everything QB Griffi n is out for the season. PP has not
adjusted the numbers so despite the forecast including a 492-218 yd edge we’ll pass and watch.
NO PLAY: BAYLOR 38 KENT STATE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MEMPHIS 95 213 17 3.1 –
UCF 131 198 23 2.6 ✔✔✔
Memphis has dropped all 3 to 1A teams but the offense will receive a boost with their top RB
Steele returning. Despite the slow start PP is only calling for UCF to have a 329-308 yd edge.
2★ MEMPHIS (+) 17 UCF 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UCLA 113 198 21 2.8 –
STANFORD 183 168 24 3.1 –
The Bruins defense is a tested bunch that earlier this year held Tenn to 208 yds on the road.
Their defense keeps this one close and we’ll side with the much better defensive team getting pts.
3★ UCLA 21 (+) STANFORD 24
Each week STREAKERS looks at current runs on both the ATS &
Totals. A streak starts after 3 Wins/Losses/Overs/Unders so this section
will start if any teams qualify during the fourth week of the season. Remember
you can win many times during a streak and lose only once.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO 64 128 3 2.9 ✔
TEXAS TECH 112 423 43 2.1 –
PP already has TT dominating this game fi nishing with a 535-192 yard edge but keep in mind that
this doesn’t factor in an angry Red Raiders team off B2B losses. NM is already 0-4 SU and ATS.
4★ TEXAS TECH 43 NEW MEXICO 3
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO STATE 165 195 29 2.4 ✔✔✔✔✔
INDIANA 50 175 8 2.8 –
No team is more dominant on the conf road than the Buckeyes. They’ve won 15 straight B10 road
games covering 13 of those. While the offense only gains 360 yards the defense holds IU to 225!
4★ OHIO STATE 29 INDIANA 8
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULSA 178 273 41 2.4 ✔
RICE 98 228 20 2.9 –
Tulsa has been an AF twice this yr covering the DD spreads by 10 and 17 pts. PP is calling for them
to cover another, fi nishing with a 451-326 yd edge. Rice is now 1-3 ATS off 3 straight BCS teams.
4.5★ TULSA 41 RICE 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS 157 315 31 1.8 –
TEXAS A&M 133 290 35 2.0 ✔
Last week’s results have this slanted towards the Aggies. A&M is off a 56-19 win while Arkansas
is off a 35-7 loss. I like the Hogs to rebound off B2B losses against 2 of the SEC’s fi nest.
NO PLAY TEXAS A&M 35 ARKANSAS 31
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AUBURN 137 168 28 2.6 –
TENNESSEE 194 213 33 3.0 –
This is why PP is such a vital handicapping tool. When Auburn’s offense is matched with Tenn’s
defense you get the Vols fi nishing with a 407-305 yd edge. That’s quite a D as Aub had 560 yds LW.
NO PLAY: TENNESSEE 33 AUBURN 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USC 177 193 26 3.3 –
CALIFORNIA 154 178 23 1.9 ✔
You’re never as good or as bad as your last game or at least Cal hopes so. The Bears are still a
quality program and PP has them keeping it very close and covering the spread.
3★ CALIFORNIA 23 (+) USC 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SMU 0 250 11 2.7 –
TCU 257 245 37 2.5 ✔✔
It’s not a good sign when you have a goose egg in the rush yards column. But here we have to
look past the numbers with TCU off a big BCS win with AF on deck while SMU had a bye week.
NO PLAY: TCU 37 SMU 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO STATE 108 128 15 2.7 –
SAN DIEGO STATE 158 273 31 2.8 ✔✔✔
How can a 1-3 team be favored by over 2 TD’s against a 2-2 NMSt squad? Easy as PP is calling for
a convincing 431-236 yard edge. LW SDSt lost with a 29 yd edge while NMSt won w/a 138 yd defi cit.
NO PLAY: SAN DIEGO ST 31 NEW MEXICO STATE 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HOUSTON 180 368 45 2.4 –
UTEP 146 253 27 2.5 –
Hard to imagine a conf opener being a fl at spot but could that happen here? Houston is projected with
a 548-399 yd edge but we like the Miners as the Cougars are off B2B BCS wins with another on deck.
NO PLAY: HOUSTON 45 UTEP 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS STATE 95 105 7 3.1 –
IOWA 195 245 34 2.3 ✔
Iowa has the expected edges fi nishing with a 440-200 yard edge. While Iowa is off an upset win
of Penn St and has Michigan on deck, Arkansas St must focus on ULM next Tuesday for any shot at
the SBC Title.
2★ IOWA 34 ARKANSAS STATE 7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WYOMING 162 163 22 2.0 ✔
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 134 313 22 2.8 –
This is a forecast where you can’t just look at the projected score. FAU has played the 9th toughest
schedule and while the points are close the yardage says FAU by a 447-325 convincing edge.
NO PLAY: FAU 22 WYOMING 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FIU 113 203 24 2.0 ✔✔
ULM 193 218 31 1.8 –
FIU now travels for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. PP projects that the Warhawks balanced offense will
fi nish with a 411-316 yd edge. ULM has won and covered the L3 vs FIU and this makes 4 straight.
4★ ULM 31 FIU 24
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 95 253 25 2.7 –
TROY 151 313 29 2.7 ✔✔✔
Get this Marquee after 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday, October 6th for just $9 with your Northcoast Debit
Card or for $15 @ 1-900-438-9467.
NO PLAY: TROY 29 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 25
SIDES - Wins
Boise St 4
C Michigan 4
Connecticut 4
Idaho 4
Nebraska 4
S Carolina 4
Arizona St 3
Indiana 3
Iowa 3
TOTALS - Overs
Auburn 4
BYU 3
Michigan 3
Michigan St 3
TOTALS - Unders
Penn St 4
Missouri 3
Mid Tenn 3
Ohio St 3
UCF 3
UCLA 3
SIDES - Losses
E Carolina 4
Maryland 4
Miami, Oh 4
New Mexico 4
Northwestern 4
Oregon St 4
Penn St 4
Army 3
Buffalo 3
Fla Atlantic 3
Illinois 3
Nevada 3
Notre Dame 3
UAB 3
USC 3
Nevada 3
Ohio St 3
San Diego St 3
Texas Tech 3
Tulsa 3
UCF 3
UCLA 3
USC 3
Just a quick note for our Power Plays Subscribers. Obviously this newsletter is based upon statistical numbers & rankings that are
used to develop the projections you see here. As with all types statistical information the more numbers that one inputs ordinarily the
stronger the accuracy of the results. Therefore, one would expect the projections to be more reliable after a number of weeks worth of
stats are input. The numbers here are based upon how they fi nished last season with adjustments made due to personnel changes.
Preseason statistics are not included in any of the projections as we do not feel they would accurately adjust the numbers.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OAKLAND 126 170 20 3 #17
HOUSTON 137 265 27 2 #6
The Raiders are the team that has to get an early lead with their defense & special teams then
letting their run game salt away the game. OAK lacks the talent & leadership on offense to support
Russell who seems aimless on the fi eld. HOU was in position to tie LW’s game but fumbled the
ball into the EZ with 2 min left vs JAX. The Texans run defense (205 ypg 6.3) is a major concern
here & PP likes the Raiders to keep it within the number but poor QB play keeps this from being
anything stronger.
1★ RAIDERS 20 (+) TEXANS 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TENNESSEE 118 218 21 3 #30
JACKSONVILLE 105 230 23 2 #29
TEN is the best 0-3 team in the NFL & the collapse of their special teams (11th LY) is a major
reason. They get a Jags team that beat HOU on a lucky goal-line stand that are 1-8 ATS at home.
TEN has more talent overall than the Jags & a smash mouth game is exactly what they need to
get back on their feet. PP however forecasts a close game for yards & has JAX winning which
we disagree with so No Play.
NO PLAY: JAGUARS 23 TITANS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALTIMORE 98 200 23 1 #22
NEW ENGLAND 92 285 27 1 #5
The Ravens are catching the Patriots at the right time here. NE is dealing with a huge changeover
on defense & if NT Wilfork (ankle) sits out then they will have 7 different defensive starters vs the
fi nal game of 2008. NE got some balance in their offense vs ATL (39 rush vs 42 pass) in the win
& had a 445-277 yd edge. BAL has taken on 2 soft foes in KC & CLE while holding off an injury
depleted SD team on a great play by Ray Lewis. PP has this fairly close to the line & without
knowing Wilforks or WR Welker’s status this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 27 RAVENS 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 114 210 24 1 #20
CLEVELAND 97 187 14 3 #18
After a slow start to the year the CIN offense is starting to wake up. They outFD’d PIT 12-6 &
outgained them 182-115 in the 2H with an impressive fi nal drive where they converted 2 4th Dns
to steal the win. CLE continues to look confused & poorly prepared which isn’t a surprise with 23
new players on the roster & the inexperience at QB/WR. While PP only gives CIN a 40 yd edge
here it’s a surprise that CLE is forecasted with 2 TD’s here & the Bengals are the play.
3★ BENGALS 24 BROWNS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY GIANTS 142 200 27 1 #27
KANSAS CITY 85 119 14 2 #9
The Giants destroyed the Bucs worse than a 24-0 shutout as they held TB to just 1 FD & 35 yds
thru the 1st 3 Qtrs. KC had the misfortune to catch PHI off a tough loss to NO with Reid determined
to get a solid win before his bye week. KC was outFD’d 17-7 & outgained 324-133 thru the 1st
3Q vs PHI & they don’t have the speed on offense to spread out physical defenses. PP gives the
Giants a 342-204 yd edge but with this being the 3rd straight road game after 2 division games
& shutout win this is a fl atspot which keeps this from being a stronger play.
2★ GIANTS 27 CHIEFS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DETROIT 74 188 15 2 #15
CHICAGO 106 280 29 2 #10
Jim Schwartz has sold his system to the players after the team broke their 19 game losing streak
vs WAS. DET was in control the entire game & had a 16-6 FD & 274-94 yd edge after the 1H.
CHI was slow to get out of the gate vs a beat up SEA team due to a long fl ight after facing PIT.
PP gives CHI a 386-262 yd edge but they are 2-6 ATS as a DD fav. DET will be very charged
to take the next test & beat a Div foe that has injury issues in their back 7 themselves but PP
disagrees so No Play.
NO PLAY: BEARS 29 LIONS 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TAMPA BAY 73 185 7 2 #3
WASHINGTON 155 258 25 2 #8
TB’s thumping to the Giants where they fi nished with 5 FD’s & 86 yds is largely lost due to the
Redskins historic loss to the Lions. HC Morris is forcing the Bucs to transition from a defense
1st mentality with an adequate offense to an offense fi rst mentality with a decent defense but he
lacks the players to do either right now. WAS is their own worst enemy as they fl ame out in the
red zone week to week. PP gives WAS a 413-258 yd edge & look for them to fi nally show some
killer instinct here vs a TB team that is a shell of 2008.
4★ REDSKINS 25 BUCS 7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SEATTLE 108 205 14 1 #14
INDIANAPOLIS 130 310 31 2 #26
SEA was without 7 starters LW & hung with the Bears for most of the game. They couldn’t stop a
6 pl/ 71 yd drive where CHI pulled ahead for the win. They now have to travel cross country vs an
IND team that dominated ARZ 31-10 on a short travel week on SNF. IND had a 505-323 yd edge
but DE Freeney status is unknown due to a quad injury. There is no line due to the injury situations
with both teams (Hasselbeck ribs, Tatupa hamstring) so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: COLTS 31 SEAHAWKS 14
PRO FOOTBALL OCTOBER 4th & 5th, 2009
6
2009 NFL POWER RATINGS
These are current 2009 Power Rating grades for each team based on talent.
STREAKERS STREAKERS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY
TEAM RTG
1 NY Giants 104.7
2 Minnesota 104.3
3 Baltimore 104.2
4 New Orleans 103.4
5 New England 103.1
6 Dallas 102.3
7 San Diego 101.9
8 NY Jets 101.4
9 Philadelphia 101.1
10 Arizona 99.7
11 Pittsburgh 99.7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY JETS 92 168 13 1 #25
NEW ORLEANS 113 248 28 2 #24
Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to open a season 3-0 since the 1970 merger thanks to outstanding
defense & OL play. They now face a NO team that won on the road in windy conditions thanks
to a defense that held the Bills to 13 FD’s, 243 yds with their only score being a 25 yd fake punt
for a TD. NO is now at home in ideal passing situations with a run game (222 yds 5.8) that balances
out Brees. PP gives NO a 101 yd edge & 15 pt win & we want to see how Sanchez does
playing from behind.
3★ SAINTS 28 JETS 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 72 188 16 2 #19
MIAMI 152 218 20 2 #21
MIA is likely to be without Pennington here as he was KO’d of LW’s loss with a shoulder injury.
Henne only had 92 yds (53%) with an int as an offense that needs precise play from the QB to
mask its sub-par receiving corps ground to a halt. BUF was dominated at home LW by the Saints
& now take an OL with an NFL low 46 combined starts on the road here. PP gives MIA a 370-260
yd edge here but there is no line right now so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: DOLPHINS 20 BILLS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ST LOUIS 92 188 4 2 #16
SAN FRANCISCO 133 220 30 2 #11
PP doesn’t take into account injuries as the 49ers are likely to be without RB Gore (ankle sprain) for
2 weeks. STL could very well be starting Kyle Boller (164 yds 52% 2-1) who is a bit more athletic &
not as shell shocked as Bulger at this point. STL has the longest active losing streak in the NFL at
13 games but they are more competitive than DET was at that point. While PP likes SF a lot here
there is no line & LW’s win by the Lions proved that no one should be underestimated.
NO PLAY: 49ers 30 RAMS 4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DALLAS 126 114 19 2 #12
DENVER 101 220 22 1 #31
DAL is off back to back prime time games at their new stadium & the MNF game is not factored
in here. DAL’s defense surprisingly hasn’t made a sack in the 1st 2 games & now face one of the
better OL’s in the NFL here. McDaniels quieted the critics of how he’s handled the offseason with 3
wins but they have been vs a rusty Carson Palmer & 2 of the weaker teams in the NFL. DEN now
starts a stretch vs 5 playoff favored teams which will show if they are contenders or pretenders.
With no line though this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 22 COWBOYS 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO 41 228 18 2 #1
PITTSBURGH 91 245 21 2 #4
The Steelers fi nd themselves 1-2 after failing to hold the Bengals who beat them on a last minute
drive. Defense’s are getting to Roethlisberger in the 1st 3 games & the defense just isn’t the same
without SS Polamalu. SD is very beat up here & has to come cross country without their starting
Ctr & their NT which is huge for a 3-4 defense. PIT did beat SD 11-10 in a cold weather game LY
but failed to cover as 5 pt HF due to a bad offi ciating call.
NO PLAY: STEELERS 21 CHARGERS 18
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GREEN BAY 69 200 21 1 #28
MINNESOTA 140 223 31 2 #2
Aside from the Jets/Patriots game in Wk 2 this is the most anticipated game of 2009. The media will
be all over the QB battle here. Rocgers bounced back from a bad game vs CIN with 269 yds (57%)
with 2 TD’s in a 36-17 win over STL. Favre added another late comeback to his legacy with a 32 yd TD
pass for the win with 2 seconds left. Who will win the 1st battle of the Brett Favre grudge match?
NO PLAY: VIKINGS 31 PACKERS 21
COLLEGE FOOTBALL OCTOBER 1-6, 2009
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1st
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO 67 203 20 3.0 ✔✔
WEST VIRGINIA 224 243 30 2.8 –
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NO PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA 30 COLORADO 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SOUTHERN MISS 228 283 41 2.6 ✔✔
UAB 188 218 27 2.8 –
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Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on October 1st. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save
by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS 41 UAB 27
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2nd
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 122 198 32 2.6 ✔
LOUISVILLE 114 283 23 3.2 –
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NO PLAY: PITTSBURGH 32 LOUISVILLE 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTAH STATE 135 200 22 3.0 –
BYU 175 375 46 3.0 –
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NO PLAY: BYU 46 UTAH ST 22
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3rd
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USF 136 260 31 3.0 –
SYRACUSE 79 205 14 2.6 ✔
USF is 4-0 SU in this series outscoring Syr 140-33. PP calls for a 17 pt win (line 7) with a 396-284
yd edge, and we expect the Bulls to dominate again.
4★ USF 31 SYRACUSE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
EAST CAROLINA 125 228 22 2.3 ✔
MARSHALL 146 228 23 2.7 –
The home team is 7-1 SU and EC is 0-5 ATS as an AF. PP calls for Marshall (+3) to get the upset
with The Herd also having the ydg edge and we agree.
4★ MARSHALL (+) 23 EAST CAROLINA 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTHWESTERN 128 185 22 3.2 –
PURDUE 167 260 34 2.9 –
PU is 9-3 SU and the favorite is 6-2-1 and has won the last 3 in this series. PP says PU will win
by 12 (line 6) with a 427-313 yd edge and we agree.
4★ PURDUE 34 NORTHWESTERN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WISCONSIN 143 205 27 2.8 ✔
MINNESOTA 142 280 26 3.0 –
UW has won the L5 SU and Minny is on a 2-5 ATS run in this series but has covered the last 2.
PP calls for UW to win in a close one but Minny has the yardage edge 422-348.
NO PLAY: WISCONSIN 27 MINNESOTA 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NC STATE 135 223 25 1.3 ✔✔
WAKE FOREST 176 238 25 2.2 –
PP calls for a draw but gives WF a 414-358 yd edge. The line also opened up at Even.
NO PLAY: NC STATE 25 WAKE FOREST 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CLEMSON 193 190 32 1.7 –
MARYLAND 82 215 13 3.6 ✔
Clemson dominated as our Sept 5★ a few weeks ago and PP shows them dominating again
with a 19 pt win over Maryland (line 13’) and a 383-297 yd edge. We like Clemson.
4.5★ CLEMSON 32 MARYLAND 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA 65 153 10 3.3 –
NORTH CAROLINA 131 198 25 2.6 ✔✔
The home tm is 17-5 ATS and VA is 9-1 ATS in this series. PP calls for a 15 pt win by NC which
is right around the line.
NO PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA 25 VIRGINIA 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA STATE 103 215 23 2.7 ✔
BOSTON COLLEGE 137 205 24 3.2 –
The home team is 0-4 SU & ATS in this series with 3 straight upsets. PP calls for BC (+5’) to win
by 1 with the ydg edge and we agree.
4★ BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 24 FLORIDA STATE 23
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in
the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 168 193 35 1.6 ✔✔✔✔
BUFFALO 118 228 21 2.2 –
CM is 3-1 SU & ATS at Buffalo. We won a 3★ LPP by going against Buffalo LW and won a 3★
Small College Play on CM, so we will agree with PP here.
4★ CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35 BUFFALO 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 196 275 34 2.0 –
BALL STATE 149 195 28 2.9 ✔✔
PP calls this one close to the line showing UT with a 6 pt win over BSU but gives the Rockets a 471-
344 yd edge. UT is one of the most experienced tms in the NCAA while BSU is one of the least exp.
NO PLAY: TOLEDO 34 BALL STATE 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ALABAMA 205 178 31 1.8 ✔
KENTUCKY 76 168 16 2.1 –
This is a massive sandwich for Bama off Ark with Ole Miss on deck and UK loves to give ranked
teams a hard time in Lexington. PP says UK will cover (+17) and we think it’s worth a look.
2★ KENTUCKY (+) 16 ALABAMA 31
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSISSIPPI 213 133 24 2.7 ✔✔✔✔
VANDERBILT 133 158 11 2.5 –
Ole Miss had a few extra days to prepare and is off a disappointing loss. VU upset UM LY, so they
will look for revenge. PP calls for a 13 pt win by UM (line 9’) with a 213-133 rush edge.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 24 VANDERBILT 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 161 275 46 1.1 ✔✔✔✔
MIAMI, OH 109 275 11 3.4 –
PP is calling for a 35 pt blowout win by Cincy in the 114th Battle for the Victory Bell. The yardage
edge isn’t that great (436-384), but the huge sp tms edge should give Cincy a few more pts.
4★ CINCINNATI 46 MIAMI, OH 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEMPLE 184 145 30 2.6 –
EASTERN MICHIGAN 116 240 22 2.6 –
Temple cashed a nice 3★ LPP winner for us last week with their 37-13 domination of Buffalo and
now PP predicts an 8 pt win over EM (line 4’). We’ll stick with Temple.
3★ TEMPLE 30 E MICHIGAN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULANE 93 188 18 2.7 –
ARMY 278 68 26 2.5 ✔
Last year Army beat Tulane by 31 but PP predicts only an 8 pt win (line 6) with a 346-281 yd
edge. We’ll pass on this for now.
NO PLAY: ARMY 26 TULANE 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VIRGINIA TECH 249 170 36 1.5 ✔✔✔✔✔
DUKE 86 215 13 2.8 –
Duke is 1-7 ATS vs VT. PP predicts a 23 pt win by VT (-15), but the ydg forecast is closer than
expected (419-301). VT is in a massive sandwich off their big win over Miami with BC on deck.
NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 36 DUKE 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON 83 230 17 2.6 –
NOTRE DAME 207 270 31 1.5 ✔✔
ND is 3-0 SU/ATS vs UW this decade and PP calls for ND to have a 477-313 yd edge in 14 pt
win (line 13’). ND’s QB Clausen, WR Floyd and RB Allen are all injured, so we will pass.
NO PLAY: NOTRE DAME 31 WASHINGTON 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LSU 92 193 27 1.4 –
GEORGIA 134 293 32 3.2 ✔
UGA has faced a killer’s row (Ok St, SC, Ark & Ariz St) and it doesn’t get easier TW. PP says
UGA will win by 5 (line 2’) but gives the Dawgs a 427-285 yd edge and we like the Dawgs.
2★ GEORGIA 32 LSU 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AIR FORCE 230 128 26 1.7 ✔✔
NAVY 266 83 23 2.4 –
Navy has won 6 straight in this rivalry including 5 outright upsets. PP says AF will pull this out with
a 3 pt win and a 358-349 yd edge. There is no line on this gm as of presstime (AF QB Jefferson ??).
NO PLAY: AIR FORCE 26 NAVY 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GEORGIA TECH 251 110 28 1.8 –
MISSISSIPPI STATE 154 195 21 3.0 –
MSU is 5-0 ATS as a HD but LY lost to GT 38-7, their worst non-conf loss since ‘69. PP calls for
MSU to lose by a TD (line 4’) with GT having 251 on the ground and we agree.
2★ GEORGIA TECH 28 MISSISSIPPI STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OKLAHOMA 130 248 30 2.7 –
MIAMI, FL 101 223 20 3.4 ✔
PP calls for OK to win by 10 (line 6’) with just a 378-324 yd edge. This is OK QB Jones’ fi rst road
start and we agree with the yards and like Miami here.
NO PLAY: OKLAHOMA 30 MIAMI, FL 20
5
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PENN STATE 155 203 26 2.5 –
ILLINOIS 161 233 20 2.7 –
Penn St is 13-3 SU vs IL but the Illini have covered 3 in a row. PP calls for PSU to win by 6 which
is right at the line but gives IL a 394-358 yd edge.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 26 ILLINOIS 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN 175 158 29 2.4 ✔
MICHIGAN STATE 146 283 30 2.6 –
The straight up winner is 13-3 ATS in this series. PP says that MSU will pull out a 1 pt win over
UM and gives MSU a 429-333 yd edge, but we disagree and like Michigan.
NO PLAY: MICHIGAN STATE 30 MICHIGAN 29
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WESTERN MICHIGAN 108 250 20 2.4 ✔✔
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 207 215 27 1.6 –
The Huskies knocked off Purdue as a 12 pt dog then LW fell to Idaho as a 15.5 pt fav. PP has N
Ill fi nishing with a 422-358 yd edge but like the offense of WM which will always keep it close.
NO PLAY: NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 WESTERN MICHIGAN 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO 156 205 25 2.3 ✔✔
BOWLING GREEN 114 255 22 2.4 –
It’s nice when you like an underdog and PP picks OU to win outright. The yards are close with a
369-361 projection but OU has the special teams edge and wins their conference opener.
4★ OHIO 25 BOWLING GREEN 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UNLV 88 265 27 2.1 ✔✔
NEVADA 242 255 32 2.2 –
UNLV has had a couple of hard luck losses already and expect improvement from them. Nevada
has also disappointed with an 0-3 SU and ATS start. We like the dog in this instate rivalry.
NO PLAY: NEVADA 32 UNLV 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO STATE 126 245 29 2.4 –
IDAHO 149 220 27 2.4 –
Nothing fl uky about Idaho’s 4-0 ATS start. Colorado St is on a B2B road trip and the Vandals are
a HD with the yards almost exactly even. The Kibbie Dome is a tough venue for 1st timers.
3★ IDAHO (+) 27 COLORADO STATE 29
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA STATE 156 188 22 3.1 ✔
KANSAS STATE 170 263 28 2.5 –
The wrong team looks to be favored in this B12 matchup. KSt has dropped both games vs IA
teams but PP’s thinks they’ll rebound just fi ne. The Wildcats fi nish with a 433-344 yd edge.
4.5★ KANSAS STATE 28 IOWA STATE 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OREGON STATE 83 185 16 2.6 –
ARIZONA STATE 107 220 26 2.1 ✔
ASU is now 3-0 ATS on the season while OSU is 0-4 ATS. Don’t expect much offense this week
in Tempe as PP is projecting the Sun Devils to fi nish with a 327-268 yard edge.
NO PLAY: ARIZONA STATE 26 OREGON STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON STATE 65 165 11 3.4 –
OREGON 265 260 42 2.6 ✔
While WSU covered by 24 pts LW Oregon topped that by covering by 44 pts. The Cougars did
only gain 231 yds LW and this week PP is calling for Oregon to fi nish with a 525-230 yard edge.
NO PLAY: OREGON 42 WASHINGTON STATE 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
KENT STATE 118 100 14 3.7 –
BAYLOR 262 230 38 2.9 ✔✔✔
Tough news from the Bears camp as All-Everything QB Griffi n is out for the season. PP has not
adjusted the numbers so despite the forecast including a 492-218 yd edge we’ll pass and watch.
NO PLAY: BAYLOR 38 KENT STATE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MEMPHIS 95 213 17 3.1 –
UCF 131 198 23 2.6 ✔✔✔
Memphis has dropped all 3 to 1A teams but the offense will receive a boost with their top RB
Steele returning. Despite the slow start PP is only calling for UCF to have a 329-308 yd edge.
2★ MEMPHIS (+) 17 UCF 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UCLA 113 198 21 2.8 –
STANFORD 183 168 24 3.1 –
The Bruins defense is a tested bunch that earlier this year held Tenn to 208 yds on the road.
Their defense keeps this one close and we’ll side with the much better defensive team getting pts.
3★ UCLA 21 (+) STANFORD 24
Each week STREAKERS looks at current runs on both the ATS &
Totals. A streak starts after 3 Wins/Losses/Overs/Unders so this section
will start if any teams qualify during the fourth week of the season. Remember
you can win many times during a streak and lose only once.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO 64 128 3 2.9 ✔
TEXAS TECH 112 423 43 2.1 –
PP already has TT dominating this game fi nishing with a 535-192 yard edge but keep in mind that
this doesn’t factor in an angry Red Raiders team off B2B losses. NM is already 0-4 SU and ATS.
4★ TEXAS TECH 43 NEW MEXICO 3
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO STATE 165 195 29 2.4 ✔✔✔✔✔
INDIANA 50 175 8 2.8 –
No team is more dominant on the conf road than the Buckeyes. They’ve won 15 straight B10 road
games covering 13 of those. While the offense only gains 360 yards the defense holds IU to 225!
4★ OHIO STATE 29 INDIANA 8
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TULSA 178 273 41 2.4 ✔
RICE 98 228 20 2.9 –
Tulsa has been an AF twice this yr covering the DD spreads by 10 and 17 pts. PP is calling for them
to cover another, fi nishing with a 451-326 yd edge. Rice is now 1-3 ATS off 3 straight BCS teams.
4.5★ TULSA 41 RICE 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS 157 315 31 1.8 –
TEXAS A&M 133 290 35 2.0 ✔
Last week’s results have this slanted towards the Aggies. A&M is off a 56-19 win while Arkansas
is off a 35-7 loss. I like the Hogs to rebound off B2B losses against 2 of the SEC’s fi nest.
NO PLAY TEXAS A&M 35 ARKANSAS 31
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AUBURN 137 168 28 2.6 –
TENNESSEE 194 213 33 3.0 –
This is why PP is such a vital handicapping tool. When Auburn’s offense is matched with Tenn’s
defense you get the Vols fi nishing with a 407-305 yd edge. That’s quite a D as Aub had 560 yds LW.
NO PLAY: TENNESSEE 33 AUBURN 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USC 177 193 26 3.3 –
CALIFORNIA 154 178 23 1.9 ✔
You’re never as good or as bad as your last game or at least Cal hopes so. The Bears are still a
quality program and PP has them keeping it very close and covering the spread.
3★ CALIFORNIA 23 (+) USC 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SMU 0 250 11 2.7 –
TCU 257 245 37 2.5 ✔✔
It’s not a good sign when you have a goose egg in the rush yards column. But here we have to
look past the numbers with TCU off a big BCS win with AF on deck while SMU had a bye week.
NO PLAY: TCU 37 SMU 11
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO STATE 108 128 15 2.7 –
SAN DIEGO STATE 158 273 31 2.8 ✔✔✔
How can a 1-3 team be favored by over 2 TD’s against a 2-2 NMSt squad? Easy as PP is calling for
a convincing 431-236 yard edge. LW SDSt lost with a 29 yd edge while NMSt won w/a 138 yd defi cit.
NO PLAY: SAN DIEGO ST 31 NEW MEXICO STATE 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HOUSTON 180 368 45 2.4 –
UTEP 146 253 27 2.5 –
Hard to imagine a conf opener being a fl at spot but could that happen here? Houston is projected with
a 548-399 yd edge but we like the Miners as the Cougars are off B2B BCS wins with another on deck.
NO PLAY: HOUSTON 45 UTEP 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS STATE 95 105 7 3.1 –
IOWA 195 245 34 2.3 ✔
Iowa has the expected edges fi nishing with a 440-200 yard edge. While Iowa is off an upset win
of Penn St and has Michigan on deck, Arkansas St must focus on ULM next Tuesday for any shot at
the SBC Title.
2★ IOWA 34 ARKANSAS STATE 7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WYOMING 162 163 22 2.0 ✔
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 134 313 22 2.8 –
This is a forecast where you can’t just look at the projected score. FAU has played the 9th toughest
schedule and while the points are close the yardage says FAU by a 447-325 convincing edge.
NO PLAY: FAU 22 WYOMING 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FIU 113 203 24 2.0 ✔✔
ULM 193 218 31 1.8 –
FIU now travels for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. PP projects that the Warhawks balanced offense will
fi nish with a 411-316 yd edge. ULM has won and covered the L3 vs FIU and this makes 4 straight.
4★ ULM 31 FIU 24
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 95 253 25 2.7 –
TROY 151 313 29 2.7 ✔✔✔
Get this Marquee after 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday, October 6th for just $9 with your Northcoast Debit
Card or for $15 @ 1-900-438-9467.
NO PLAY: TROY 29 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 25
SIDES - Wins
Boise St 4
C Michigan 4
Connecticut 4
Idaho 4
Nebraska 4
S Carolina 4
Arizona St 3
Indiana 3
Iowa 3
TOTALS - Overs
Auburn 4
BYU 3
Michigan 3
Michigan St 3
TOTALS - Unders
Penn St 4
Missouri 3
Mid Tenn 3
Ohio St 3
UCF 3
UCLA 3
SIDES - Losses
E Carolina 4
Maryland 4
Miami, Oh 4
New Mexico 4
Northwestern 4
Oregon St 4
Penn St 4
Army 3
Buffalo 3
Fla Atlantic 3
Illinois 3
Nevada 3
Notre Dame 3
UAB 3
USC 3
Nevada 3
Ohio St 3
San Diego St 3
Texas Tech 3
Tulsa 3
UCF 3
UCLA 3
USC 3
Just a quick note for our Power Plays Subscribers. Obviously this newsletter is based upon statistical numbers & rankings that are
used to develop the projections you see here. As with all types statistical information the more numbers that one inputs ordinarily the
stronger the accuracy of the results. Therefore, one would expect the projections to be more reliable after a number of weeks worth of
stats are input. The numbers here are based upon how they fi nished last season with adjustments made due to personnel changes.
Preseason statistics are not included in any of the projections as we do not feel they would accurately adjust the numbers.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OAKLAND 126 170 20 3 #17
HOUSTON 137 265 27 2 #6
The Raiders are the team that has to get an early lead with their defense & special teams then
letting their run game salt away the game. OAK lacks the talent & leadership on offense to support
Russell who seems aimless on the fi eld. HOU was in position to tie LW’s game but fumbled the
ball into the EZ with 2 min left vs JAX. The Texans run defense (205 ypg 6.3) is a major concern
here & PP likes the Raiders to keep it within the number but poor QB play keeps this from being
anything stronger.
1★ RAIDERS 20 (+) TEXANS 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TENNESSEE 118 218 21 3 #30
JACKSONVILLE 105 230 23 2 #29
TEN is the best 0-3 team in the NFL & the collapse of their special teams (11th LY) is a major
reason. They get a Jags team that beat HOU on a lucky goal-line stand that are 1-8 ATS at home.
TEN has more talent overall than the Jags & a smash mouth game is exactly what they need to
get back on their feet. PP however forecasts a close game for yards & has JAX winning which
we disagree with so No Play.
NO PLAY: JAGUARS 23 TITANS 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALTIMORE 98 200 23 1 #22
NEW ENGLAND 92 285 27 1 #5
The Ravens are catching the Patriots at the right time here. NE is dealing with a huge changeover
on defense & if NT Wilfork (ankle) sits out then they will have 7 different defensive starters vs the
fi nal game of 2008. NE got some balance in their offense vs ATL (39 rush vs 42 pass) in the win
& had a 445-277 yd edge. BAL has taken on 2 soft foes in KC & CLE while holding off an injury
depleted SD team on a great play by Ray Lewis. PP has this fairly close to the line & without
knowing Wilforks or WR Welker’s status this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 27 RAVENS 23
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CINCINNATI 114 210 24 1 #20
CLEVELAND 97 187 14 3 #18
After a slow start to the year the CIN offense is starting to wake up. They outFD’d PIT 12-6 &
outgained them 182-115 in the 2H with an impressive fi nal drive where they converted 2 4th Dns
to steal the win. CLE continues to look confused & poorly prepared which isn’t a surprise with 23
new players on the roster & the inexperience at QB/WR. While PP only gives CIN a 40 yd edge
here it’s a surprise that CLE is forecasted with 2 TD’s here & the Bengals are the play.
3★ BENGALS 24 BROWNS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY GIANTS 142 200 27 1 #27
KANSAS CITY 85 119 14 2 #9
The Giants destroyed the Bucs worse than a 24-0 shutout as they held TB to just 1 FD & 35 yds
thru the 1st 3 Qtrs. KC had the misfortune to catch PHI off a tough loss to NO with Reid determined
to get a solid win before his bye week. KC was outFD’d 17-7 & outgained 324-133 thru the 1st
3Q vs PHI & they don’t have the speed on offense to spread out physical defenses. PP gives the
Giants a 342-204 yd edge but with this being the 3rd straight road game after 2 division games
& shutout win this is a fl atspot which keeps this from being a stronger play.
2★ GIANTS 27 CHIEFS 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DETROIT 74 188 15 2 #15
CHICAGO 106 280 29 2 #10
Jim Schwartz has sold his system to the players after the team broke their 19 game losing streak
vs WAS. DET was in control the entire game & had a 16-6 FD & 274-94 yd edge after the 1H.
CHI was slow to get out of the gate vs a beat up SEA team due to a long fl ight after facing PIT.
PP gives CHI a 386-262 yd edge but they are 2-6 ATS as a DD fav. DET will be very charged
to take the next test & beat a Div foe that has injury issues in their back 7 themselves but PP
disagrees so No Play.
NO PLAY: BEARS 29 LIONS 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TAMPA BAY 73 185 7 2 #3
WASHINGTON 155 258 25 2 #8
TB’s thumping to the Giants where they fi nished with 5 FD’s & 86 yds is largely lost due to the
Redskins historic loss to the Lions. HC Morris is forcing the Bucs to transition from a defense
1st mentality with an adequate offense to an offense fi rst mentality with a decent defense but he
lacks the players to do either right now. WAS is their own worst enemy as they fl ame out in the
red zone week to week. PP gives WAS a 413-258 yd edge & look for them to fi nally show some
killer instinct here vs a TB team that is a shell of 2008.
4★ REDSKINS 25 BUCS 7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SEATTLE 108 205 14 1 #14
INDIANAPOLIS 130 310 31 2 #26
SEA was without 7 starters LW & hung with the Bears for most of the game. They couldn’t stop a
6 pl/ 71 yd drive where CHI pulled ahead for the win. They now have to travel cross country vs an
IND team that dominated ARZ 31-10 on a short travel week on SNF. IND had a 505-323 yd edge
but DE Freeney status is unknown due to a quad injury. There is no line due to the injury situations
with both teams (Hasselbeck ribs, Tatupa hamstring) so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: COLTS 31 SEAHAWKS 14
PRO FOOTBALL OCTOBER 4th & 5th, 2009
6
2009 NFL POWER RATINGS
These are current 2009 Power Rating grades for each team based on talent.
STREAKERS STREAKERS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY
TEAM RTG
1 NY Giants 104.7
2 Minnesota 104.3
3 Baltimore 104.2
4 New Orleans 103.4
5 New England 103.1
6 Dallas 102.3
7 San Diego 101.9
8 NY Jets 101.4
9 Philadelphia 101.1
10 Arizona 99.7
11 Pittsburgh 99.7
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NY JETS 92 168 13 1 #25
NEW ORLEANS 113 248 28 2 #24
Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to open a season 3-0 since the 1970 merger thanks to outstanding
defense & OL play. They now face a NO team that won on the road in windy conditions thanks
to a defense that held the Bills to 13 FD’s, 243 yds with their only score being a 25 yd fake punt
for a TD. NO is now at home in ideal passing situations with a run game (222 yds 5.8) that balances
out Brees. PP gives NO a 101 yd edge & 15 pt win & we want to see how Sanchez does
playing from behind.
3★ SAINTS 28 JETS 13
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 72 188 16 2 #19
MIAMI 152 218 20 2 #21
MIA is likely to be without Pennington here as he was KO’d of LW’s loss with a shoulder injury.
Henne only had 92 yds (53%) with an int as an offense that needs precise play from the QB to
mask its sub-par receiving corps ground to a halt. BUF was dominated at home LW by the Saints
& now take an OL with an NFL low 46 combined starts on the road here. PP gives MIA a 370-260
yd edge here but there is no line right now so this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: DOLPHINS 20 BILLS 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ST LOUIS 92 188 4 2 #16
SAN FRANCISCO 133 220 30 2 #11
PP doesn’t take into account injuries as the 49ers are likely to be without RB Gore (ankle sprain) for
2 weeks. STL could very well be starting Kyle Boller (164 yds 52% 2-1) who is a bit more athletic &
not as shell shocked as Bulger at this point. STL has the longest active losing streak in the NFL at
13 games but they are more competitive than DET was at that point. While PP likes SF a lot here
there is no line & LW’s win by the Lions proved that no one should be underestimated.
NO PLAY: 49ers 30 RAMS 4
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
DALLAS 126 114 19 2 #12
DENVER 101 220 22 1 #31
DAL is off back to back prime time games at their new stadium & the MNF game is not factored
in here. DAL’s defense surprisingly hasn’t made a sack in the 1st 2 games & now face one of the
better OL’s in the NFL here. McDaniels quieted the critics of how he’s handled the offseason with 3
wins but they have been vs a rusty Carson Palmer & 2 of the weaker teams in the NFL. DEN now
starts a stretch vs 5 playoff favored teams which will show if they are contenders or pretenders.
With no line though this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 22 COWBOYS 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO 41 228 18 2 #1
PITTSBURGH 91 245 21 2 #4
The Steelers fi nd themselves 1-2 after failing to hold the Bengals who beat them on a last minute
drive. Defense’s are getting to Roethlisberger in the 1st 3 games & the defense just isn’t the same
without SS Polamalu. SD is very beat up here & has to come cross country without their starting
Ctr & their NT which is huge for a 3-4 defense. PIT did beat SD 11-10 in a cold weather game LY
but failed to cover as 5 pt HF due to a bad offi ciating call.
NO PLAY: STEELERS 21 CHARGERS 18
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
GREEN BAY 69 200 21 1 #28
MINNESOTA 140 223 31 2 #2
Aside from the Jets/Patriots game in Wk 2 this is the most anticipated game of 2009. The media will
be all over the QB battle here. Rocgers bounced back from a bad game vs CIN with 269 yds (57%)
with 2 TD’s in a 36-17 win over STL. Favre added another late comeback to his legacy with a 32 yd TD
pass for the win with 2 seconds left. Who will win the 1st battle of the Brett Favre grudge match?
NO PLAY: VIKINGS 31 PACKERS 21
LOGICAL APPROACH
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 5 Games through October 5, 2008
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEVADA - 3 ½ over Unlv - This has been a streaky rivalry over the past decade. Nevada has won 4 straight after dropping 5 in a row to their downstate rival. Both teams had great expectations entering this season. UNLV has started 2-2 with their last 3 games going down to the wire after an opening game blowout of FCS Sacramento State, defeating Hawaii but losing to Oregon State and at Wyoming. Nevada is winless but played tougher competition, losing at Notre Dame and to Missouri, sandwiched around a loss at improved Colorado State. Nevada has performed well at home in recent years and carries the higher pedigree, having been to Bowls each of the past 4 seasons. Both teams will be highly motivated for this game with Nevada playing with a greater sense of urgency as they seek their first win on the eve of their conference opener next week. The talent level is fairly even with Nevada having an edge on the sidelines. And UNLV still commits too many dumb penalties. Nevada wins 37-24.
Other Featured College Selections
South Florida - 7 over SYRACUSE - This would normally be looked at as a flat spot for South Florida following their huge upset of instate rival Florida State last week. That win came on the road and was the first meeting between the schools so there was no revenge factor involved or the continuation of any traditional or longstanding rivalry. Two things were impressive about that win. First, it came despite the loss of starting QB Grothe who is out for the season. Second, it came after USF opened the season with wins over 3 very weak teams and thus had not yet been tested. The flat spot has been factored in the line as many power ratings have USF double digits better than Syracuse. The Orange will be without some key defenders which should minimize the impact of USF's loss of QB experience. Since joining the Big East USF has dominated Syracuse, winning by 27, 17, 31 and 32 points. Syracuse is improved under new coach Marrone but a great gap still exists. And USF is off next week while Syracuse hosts West Virginia. South Florida wins 31-16.
Oklahoma - 7 over MIAMI FLA - Miami should be in a foul mood following their 31-7 loss last week at Virginia Tech. They seek to avenge a 51-13 loss at Oklahoma two seasons ago. The stats were every bit as lopsided as the score with the Sooners outgaining Miami 411-139. Miami is an improved program but perhaps not as improved as many observers thought just two weeks ago. Their opening win at Florida State has to be devalued following FSU's sluggish effort against Jacksonville State and last week's home loss to South Florida, sandwiched around a rout of BYU. Miami's most impressive effort was their highly emotional win over Georgia Tech a couple of Thursday nights ago in a game they'd pointed to since being routed by GT last season. Miami was exposed last week at Virginia Tech and Oklahoma is capable of doing what VT did to the Canes, only with greater speed and better athletes. Even without Bradford at QB the Sooners are an elite team, notwithstanding their opening 14-13 loss to BYU. Oklahoma is rested after a Bye week and are off of back to back shutout wins. There is still a huge gap between the programs. Oklahoma wins 34-17.
Kansas State + 3 over Iowa State (at Kansas City, MO) - Both teams are lower tier Big 12 North teams and this will be one of perhaps no more than two or three conference wins for the victor. Both teams are rebuilding under first year coaches but K-State is coached by former coach Snyder who built the program from nothing into a nationally prominent program before retiring following the 2005 season. After dominating ISU for years Snyder lost his final two contests against the Cyclones. Snyder schedules soft early in the season to give his team confidence and work on preparation for conference play. Neither team has played much of a schedule thus far. Iowa State's biggest test was a 35-3 home loss to arch rival Iowa. Kansas State's biggest test was a 23-9 road loss at UCLA. The talent level on both teams is similar but Kansas State has a coaching edge and should benefit more from this site. And they do have the better defense which should be decisive in a game between a pair of at best average offenses. Kansas State wins 24-16.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
Utah State + 24 ½ over BYU [Friday]
East Carolina - 2 ½ over MARSHALL
Northwestern + 7 over PURDUE
Wisconsin + 2 ½ over MINNESOTA
WAKE FOREST Pick 'em over North Carolina State
BUFFALO + 8 over Central Michigan
Mississippi - 9 over VANDERBILT
Washington + 13 over NOTRE DAME
GEORGIA - 3 over Lsu
Georgia Tech - 5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Penn State - 7 over ILLINOIS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 6 ½ over Western Michigan
IDAHO + 4 over Colorado State
ARIZONA STATE - 4 ½ over Oregon State
Ohio State - 17 over INDIANA
Tulsa - 15 over RICE
Texas A&M - 1 over Arkansas [at Arlington, TX]
TENNESSEE - 1 ½ over Auburn
CALIFORNIA + 5 over Usc
SAN DIEGO STATE - 16 over New Mexico State
UTEP + 16 ½ over Houston
UL MONROE - 4 over Florida International
The Rest (Leans)
LOUISIANA TECH - 4 over Hawaii [Wednesday]
WEST VIRGINIA - 17 over Colorado [Thursday]
Pittsburgh - 6 ½ over LOUISVILLE [Friday]
Clemson - 13 ½ over MARYLAND
NORTH CAROLINA - 13 ½ over Virginia
BOSTON COLLEGE + 5 over Florida State
BALL STATE + 6 over Toledo
Alabama - 16 over KENTUCKY
Cincinnati - 28 ½ over MIAMI OHIO
Tempe - 6 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
ARMY - 6 over Tulane
Virginia Tech - 16 ½ over DUKE
NAVY - 3 ½ over Air Force
Michigan + 1 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Ohio U + 3 over BOWLING GREEN
Washington State + 32 over OREGON
Memphis + 7 over CENTRAL FLORIDA
Ucla + 6 over STANFORD
TEXAS TECH - 35 over New Mexico
TCU - 28 over Smu
IOWA - 21 over Arkansas State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 3 over Wyoming
No Lines at press time
Southern Miss at UAB [Thursday]
Kent State at BAYLOR
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: INDIANAPOLIS - 10 over Seattle - Seattle QB Hasselbeck's status keeps this game off the boards at press time. Expect the Colts to be small double digit favorites. Indianapolis was impressive in overcoming all the negatives involved after their Monday night win in Miami with a decisive win at Arizona. They had their best rushing game of the season in the 31-10 win and the defense made several key plays. The coaching transition from Dungy to Caldwell has been seamless and QB Manning is in top form. Seattle coach Mora is starting to panic with his post game tirade against his kicker after the loss to Chicago. This will be the most potent offense Seattle has faced this season and they cannot trade points with the Colts. This is also the Colts' only home game in a 7 week stretch. Indianapolis wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
Detroit + 10 over CHICAGO - The Lions finally ended their 19 game losing streak by holding on against Washington last week despite being slightly outgained in total yards. Chicago earned a second straight come from behind win at Seattle and all three of their games have been decided in the final minutes with margins of 6 points or less. Even with QB Cutler the Bears are first a team that relies on defense and a conservative offense. That makes laying double digits risky, especially against a long time Divisional foe that should be playing with greater confidence after finally unloading King Kong. Detroit actually has shown a better ground game, averaging 105 ypg to Chicago's 71 ypg. With the new coaching regime in place in Detroit there is more room to show greater weekly improvement and that will start to be evident. Chicago wins but by just 27-23.
Dallas - 3 over DENVER - Denver is 3-0 but has yet to face a team considered capable of being a Playoff contender. Dallas is off of Monday night's win over Carolina in which they ran for over 200 yards for a second straight week. RB Jones was injured but RB Barber should be back for this game. The Broncos are not as good as their 3-0 record but nor are they as bad as many pundits had predicted they would be. There is good talent at most positions. And the defense has played well, holding all three foes to under 100 rushing yards. Even with banged up running backs Dallas has the more potent offense including a more polished passing game. That offense will challenge and expose Denver's defense that has yet to be tested. And expect the Dallas defense to follow up their best effort of the season they had against Carolina. Dallas wins 28-20.
San Diego + 6 ½ over PITTSBURGH - Each of Pittsburgh's games has been decided by a FG with the Steelers losing each of the last two, both on the road. San Diego has not been able to run the ball with RB Tomlinson sidelined. But the Steelers have also been unable to run the football. Pittsburgh won both the regular season meeting and Playoff game last season but their own lack of a running game this season represents a concern. Both teams are banged up on defense. While the situation suggests a big effort from the Steelers that lack of a running game should prevent this game from being one sided. Especially with San Diego QB Rivers having had a solid start to the season. This will be the best offense Pittsburgh will have seen so far while San Diego's offense has already played Baltimore's defense. Pittsburgh wins but by just 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
HOUSTON - 9 ½ over Oakland
NEW ENGLAND - 2 over Baltimore
N Y Jets + 6 ½ over NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay + 3 ½ over MINNESOTA [Monday]
The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE + 3 over Tennessee
CLEVELAND + 5 over Cincinnati
KANSAS CITY + 9 over N Y Giants
WASHINGTON - 7 over Tampa Bay
MIAMI + 2 over Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO - 10 over St Louis
Bye Week :
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
Philadelphia
Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/New England OVER 44 ½
Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 38 ½
Detroit/Chicago OVER 39
Tampa Bay/Washington UNDER 37
Buffalo/Miami UNDER 37
Dallas/Denver OVER 43
San Diego/Pittsburgh OVER 43
Green Bay/Minnesota UNDER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Kansas State
Ucla
CALIFORNIA
UL MONROE
Pro:
JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI
Dallas
Green Bay
NOTE: All Selections are picked Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s) .
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 5 Games through October 5, 2008
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEVADA - 3 ½ over Unlv - This has been a streaky rivalry over the past decade. Nevada has won 4 straight after dropping 5 in a row to their downstate rival. Both teams had great expectations entering this season. UNLV has started 2-2 with their last 3 games going down to the wire after an opening game blowout of FCS Sacramento State, defeating Hawaii but losing to Oregon State and at Wyoming. Nevada is winless but played tougher competition, losing at Notre Dame and to Missouri, sandwiched around a loss at improved Colorado State. Nevada has performed well at home in recent years and carries the higher pedigree, having been to Bowls each of the past 4 seasons. Both teams will be highly motivated for this game with Nevada playing with a greater sense of urgency as they seek their first win on the eve of their conference opener next week. The talent level is fairly even with Nevada having an edge on the sidelines. And UNLV still commits too many dumb penalties. Nevada wins 37-24.
Other Featured College Selections
South Florida - 7 over SYRACUSE - This would normally be looked at as a flat spot for South Florida following their huge upset of instate rival Florida State last week. That win came on the road and was the first meeting between the schools so there was no revenge factor involved or the continuation of any traditional or longstanding rivalry. Two things were impressive about that win. First, it came despite the loss of starting QB Grothe who is out for the season. Second, it came after USF opened the season with wins over 3 very weak teams and thus had not yet been tested. The flat spot has been factored in the line as many power ratings have USF double digits better than Syracuse. The Orange will be without some key defenders which should minimize the impact of USF's loss of QB experience. Since joining the Big East USF has dominated Syracuse, winning by 27, 17, 31 and 32 points. Syracuse is improved under new coach Marrone but a great gap still exists. And USF is off next week while Syracuse hosts West Virginia. South Florida wins 31-16.
Oklahoma - 7 over MIAMI FLA - Miami should be in a foul mood following their 31-7 loss last week at Virginia Tech. They seek to avenge a 51-13 loss at Oklahoma two seasons ago. The stats were every bit as lopsided as the score with the Sooners outgaining Miami 411-139. Miami is an improved program but perhaps not as improved as many observers thought just two weeks ago. Their opening win at Florida State has to be devalued following FSU's sluggish effort against Jacksonville State and last week's home loss to South Florida, sandwiched around a rout of BYU. Miami's most impressive effort was their highly emotional win over Georgia Tech a couple of Thursday nights ago in a game they'd pointed to since being routed by GT last season. Miami was exposed last week at Virginia Tech and Oklahoma is capable of doing what VT did to the Canes, only with greater speed and better athletes. Even without Bradford at QB the Sooners are an elite team, notwithstanding their opening 14-13 loss to BYU. Oklahoma is rested after a Bye week and are off of back to back shutout wins. There is still a huge gap between the programs. Oklahoma wins 34-17.
Kansas State + 3 over Iowa State (at Kansas City, MO) - Both teams are lower tier Big 12 North teams and this will be one of perhaps no more than two or three conference wins for the victor. Both teams are rebuilding under first year coaches but K-State is coached by former coach Snyder who built the program from nothing into a nationally prominent program before retiring following the 2005 season. After dominating ISU for years Snyder lost his final two contests against the Cyclones. Snyder schedules soft early in the season to give his team confidence and work on preparation for conference play. Neither team has played much of a schedule thus far. Iowa State's biggest test was a 35-3 home loss to arch rival Iowa. Kansas State's biggest test was a 23-9 road loss at UCLA. The talent level on both teams is similar but Kansas State has a coaching edge and should benefit more from this site. And they do have the better defense which should be decisive in a game between a pair of at best average offenses. Kansas State wins 24-16.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
Utah State + 24 ½ over BYU [Friday]
East Carolina - 2 ½ over MARSHALL
Northwestern + 7 over PURDUE
Wisconsin + 2 ½ over MINNESOTA
WAKE FOREST Pick 'em over North Carolina State
BUFFALO + 8 over Central Michigan
Mississippi - 9 over VANDERBILT
Washington + 13 over NOTRE DAME
GEORGIA - 3 over Lsu
Georgia Tech - 5 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Penn State - 7 over ILLINOIS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 6 ½ over Western Michigan
IDAHO + 4 over Colorado State
ARIZONA STATE - 4 ½ over Oregon State
Ohio State - 17 over INDIANA
Tulsa - 15 over RICE
Texas A&M - 1 over Arkansas [at Arlington, TX]
TENNESSEE - 1 ½ over Auburn
CALIFORNIA + 5 over Usc
SAN DIEGO STATE - 16 over New Mexico State
UTEP + 16 ½ over Houston
UL MONROE - 4 over Florida International
The Rest (Leans)
LOUISIANA TECH - 4 over Hawaii [Wednesday]
WEST VIRGINIA - 17 over Colorado [Thursday]
Pittsburgh - 6 ½ over LOUISVILLE [Friday]
Clemson - 13 ½ over MARYLAND
NORTH CAROLINA - 13 ½ over Virginia
BOSTON COLLEGE + 5 over Florida State
BALL STATE + 6 over Toledo
Alabama - 16 over KENTUCKY
Cincinnati - 28 ½ over MIAMI OHIO
Tempe - 6 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
ARMY - 6 over Tulane
Virginia Tech - 16 ½ over DUKE
NAVY - 3 ½ over Air Force
Michigan + 1 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Ohio U + 3 over BOWLING GREEN
Washington State + 32 over OREGON
Memphis + 7 over CENTRAL FLORIDA
Ucla + 6 over STANFORD
TEXAS TECH - 35 over New Mexico
TCU - 28 over Smu
IOWA - 21 over Arkansas State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 3 over Wyoming
No Lines at press time
Southern Miss at UAB [Thursday]
Kent State at BAYLOR
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: INDIANAPOLIS - 10 over Seattle - Seattle QB Hasselbeck's status keeps this game off the boards at press time. Expect the Colts to be small double digit favorites. Indianapolis was impressive in overcoming all the negatives involved after their Monday night win in Miami with a decisive win at Arizona. They had their best rushing game of the season in the 31-10 win and the defense made several key plays. The coaching transition from Dungy to Caldwell has been seamless and QB Manning is in top form. Seattle coach Mora is starting to panic with his post game tirade against his kicker after the loss to Chicago. This will be the most potent offense Seattle has faced this season and they cannot trade points with the Colts. This is also the Colts' only home game in a 7 week stretch. Indianapolis wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
Detroit + 10 over CHICAGO - The Lions finally ended their 19 game losing streak by holding on against Washington last week despite being slightly outgained in total yards. Chicago earned a second straight come from behind win at Seattle and all three of their games have been decided in the final minutes with margins of 6 points or less. Even with QB Cutler the Bears are first a team that relies on defense and a conservative offense. That makes laying double digits risky, especially against a long time Divisional foe that should be playing with greater confidence after finally unloading King Kong. Detroit actually has shown a better ground game, averaging 105 ypg to Chicago's 71 ypg. With the new coaching regime in place in Detroit there is more room to show greater weekly improvement and that will start to be evident. Chicago wins but by just 27-23.
Dallas - 3 over DENVER - Denver is 3-0 but has yet to face a team considered capable of being a Playoff contender. Dallas is off of Monday night's win over Carolina in which they ran for over 200 yards for a second straight week. RB Jones was injured but RB Barber should be back for this game. The Broncos are not as good as their 3-0 record but nor are they as bad as many pundits had predicted they would be. There is good talent at most positions. And the defense has played well, holding all three foes to under 100 rushing yards. Even with banged up running backs Dallas has the more potent offense including a more polished passing game. That offense will challenge and expose Denver's defense that has yet to be tested. And expect the Dallas defense to follow up their best effort of the season they had against Carolina. Dallas wins 28-20.
San Diego + 6 ½ over PITTSBURGH - Each of Pittsburgh's games has been decided by a FG with the Steelers losing each of the last two, both on the road. San Diego has not been able to run the ball with RB Tomlinson sidelined. But the Steelers have also been unable to run the football. Pittsburgh won both the regular season meeting and Playoff game last season but their own lack of a running game this season represents a concern. Both teams are banged up on defense. While the situation suggests a big effort from the Steelers that lack of a running game should prevent this game from being one sided. Especially with San Diego QB Rivers having had a solid start to the season. This will be the best offense Pittsburgh will have seen so far while San Diego's offense has already played Baltimore's defense. Pittsburgh wins but by just 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
HOUSTON - 9 ½ over Oakland
NEW ENGLAND - 2 over Baltimore
N Y Jets + 6 ½ over NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay + 3 ½ over MINNESOTA [Monday]
The Rest (Leans)
JACKSONVILLE + 3 over Tennessee
CLEVELAND + 5 over Cincinnati
KANSAS CITY + 9 over N Y Giants
WASHINGTON - 7 over Tampa Bay
MIAMI + 2 over Buffalo
SAN FRANCISCO - 10 over St Louis
Bye Week :
Arizona
Atlanta
Carolina
Philadelphia
Best of the NFL Totals
Baltimore/New England OVER 44 ½
Cincinnati/Cleveland UNDER 38 ½
Detroit/Chicago OVER 39
Tampa Bay/Washington UNDER 37
Buffalo/Miami UNDER 37
Dallas/Denver OVER 43
San Diego/Pittsburgh OVER 43
Green Bay/Minnesota UNDER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Kansas State
Ucla
CALIFORNIA
UL MONROE
Pro:
JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI
Dallas
Green Bay
NOTE: All Selections are picked Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s) .
Here ya go...
Red Sheet...
Tulsa 57 - RICE 24 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 13, and is now minus 13½. Explosive 'Canes
were shut out at Oklahoma, but certainly not the first to be held in check by that Sooner "D".
Took out frustrations LW, with Kinne tossing 4 TDs in first half. Took Owls by 35 year ago, &
that Rice squad finished 10th in the land on "O", eventually winding up in a bowl. But just 4
returnees from that unit, thus this edition can't offset its normally weak "D", which has been
had by the week (44 ppg in '09), allowing nearly 500 yds LW, to a Vandy squad which ranked
89th on "O" entering that one. Spread is more than doable.
RATING: TULSA 89
Washington 25 - NOTRE DAME 22 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NoDame minus 13½, and is still minus 13½..
Not many easy games for the Irish, who've opened at 3-1, with their only setback coming in
the dying seconds vs Michigan. And now they're hurting at QB, RB, & WR (see injuries
below). The return of Husky QB Locker has had its expected effect, as UW has been more
than competitive, following LY's disastrous 0-12 campaign, finishing 117th in the land in total
offense. A narrow miss vs LSU, in which Huskies had 478-321 yd edge, along with monumental
upset of USC (23-pt cover). And the Irish have USC dead ahead.
RATING: WASHINGTON 89
Auburn 27 - TENNESSEE 17 - (7:45) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 2, & is now minus 1½. The Tigers
have been pure gold for us this season, as we've cashed in on them 3-of-3 times that we
pegged them as Red Sheet plays. And we jump in again, as they take on a Vol squad, which
has 11 TOs in its 4 games to date, including 8 interceptions by QB Crompton, which plays
into Auburn's hands, as it has 8 picks already. Contrast that to War Eagle signal caller, Todd,
who has tossed for 12 TDs in the early going. Vol "D" has done admirable work, but Tigs are
simply too balanced (262 RYpg, 265 PYpg) to be contained.
RATING: AUBURN 88
Central Michigan 44 - BUFFALO 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at CentralMichigan minus 10, and is now minus
8½. Friendly line movement here, due to the emergence of the Bulls as offensive power
(28.5 ppg over their last 13 outings). But losses of QB Willy & RB Stark have left that
particular cupboard somewhat bare: just 17 & 13 pts last 2 wks, vs likes of CentFla & Temple.
And check QB Maynard's 4 INTs in that loss to the Owls. Chips, on the other hand, are
returning to recent form, behind the guidance of veteran QB LeFevour, who has blitzed UB
the past 2 yrs. And CM in off 326-RY explosion. Just too many weapons.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - Oklahoma 22 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 6½, and is now minus 7.
Originally sided with the Okies here, following the 'Canes' underwhelming performance at
VaTech last week (12 FDs, 209 yds), especially in light to the fact that the Okies enter off a
combined 109-0 scoring edge in their last 2 outings. But word is that UM will be more than
ready for this biggie, & the 'Canes already have a pair of impressive wins, including the
complete throttling of a quality GaTech squad (226 yd edge), in their only home game to
date. And the Sooners will be without Heisman QB Bradford once again.
RATING: MIAMI-FLORIDA 88
CHICAGO 23 - Detroit 22 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 11½, and is now minus 10½. Quick
respect for the Lions (line move) off the snapping of their 19-game losing streak, in upset of
the 'Skins. And what an impressive showing, holding a 154-65 RY edge, along with a 36:48-
23:12 time advantage. Throw in Stafford's 21-of-36 effort (no picks) against Washington's
7th-ranked scoring "D". The visitor has covered 14 of the last 17 games involving the Lions,
while last 6 Bear games have been decided by a TD or less SU, with Chicago just 1-6 ATS
as a DD favorite. And the loss of Urlacher simply has to take its toll.
RATING: DETROIT 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Stanford, Nevada, So Florida, Penn St -- NFL: 49ers, Titans, Packers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): IowaSt (Pick to -3); Minn (Pick to -2½); NMex (+38 to +35½);
Houst (-14½ to -16½); Buff (+10 to +8½); Ga (-1 to -2); Stanford (-4½ to -6); Indy (+17½ to +16); Arky (Pick
to -1½) - NFL: Bills (+1½ to -1½); Titans (-1 to -2½); Colts (+3 to +2); Cincy (-4 to -5); Lions (+11½ to +10½)
- TIME CHANGES: FSt/BC: 3:30; Okla/UM: 8:00; Idaho/CSt: 10:30; ISt/KansSt: 3:00 -
KEY INJURIES: AF
QB Jefferson (ankle) prob; Ak QB Jacquemain suspended for season; Bay QB Griffin (knee) out for yr, QB
Szymanski (shoulder) ??, RB Finley (ankle) prob; Boise RB Harper (leg) out for yr; UConn QB Frazer (knee)
??; EMich QB Schmitt (knee) out for yr; Fla QB Tebow (concussion) ??; Kent QB Morgan (ankle) prob; Mem
RB Steele (knee) prob; Mich QB Forcier (shoulder) prob; Nev RB Taua (elbow) out 2 weeks; NW RB Simmons
(leg) ??; ND QB Clausen (toe) prob, WR Floyd (collarbone) out for yr, RB Allen (ankle) ??; Okla QB Bradford
(shoulder) doubtful; Rice QB Fanuzzi (shoulder) ??; SMiss RB Fletcher (leg) ??; WV QB Brown (shoulder)
prob - NFL: Bear RB Forte (knee) ??; Brown RB Lewis (hamstring) ??; Cowboy RB Barber (quad) ??; Lion
RB Smith (shoulder) ??; Miami QB Pennington (shoulder) out for yr; Eagle QB McNabb (ribs) ??, RB Westbrook
(ankle) ??; SD RB Tomlinson (ankle) ??; Niner RB Gore (ankle) out; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (ribs) ??; Ram
QB Bulger (rotator cuff) doubtful; 'Skin RB Portis (calf) prob.....
Red Sheet...
Tulsa 57 - RICE 24 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 13, and is now minus 13½. Explosive 'Canes
were shut out at Oklahoma, but certainly not the first to be held in check by that Sooner "D".
Took out frustrations LW, with Kinne tossing 4 TDs in first half. Took Owls by 35 year ago, &
that Rice squad finished 10th in the land on "O", eventually winding up in a bowl. But just 4
returnees from that unit, thus this edition can't offset its normally weak "D", which has been
had by the week (44 ppg in '09), allowing nearly 500 yds LW, to a Vandy squad which ranked
89th on "O" entering that one. Spread is more than doable.
RATING: TULSA 89
Washington 25 - NOTRE DAME 22 - (3:30) -- Line opened at NoDame minus 13½, and is still minus 13½..
Not many easy games for the Irish, who've opened at 3-1, with their only setback coming in
the dying seconds vs Michigan. And now they're hurting at QB, RB, & WR (see injuries
below). The return of Husky QB Locker has had its expected effect, as UW has been more
than competitive, following LY's disastrous 0-12 campaign, finishing 117th in the land in total
offense. A narrow miss vs LSU, in which Huskies had 478-321 yd edge, along with monumental
upset of USC (23-pt cover). And the Irish have USC dead ahead.
RATING: WASHINGTON 89
Auburn 27 - TENNESSEE 17 - (7:45) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 2, & is now minus 1½. The Tigers
have been pure gold for us this season, as we've cashed in on them 3-of-3 times that we
pegged them as Red Sheet plays. And we jump in again, as they take on a Vol squad, which
has 11 TOs in its 4 games to date, including 8 interceptions by QB Crompton, which plays
into Auburn's hands, as it has 8 picks already. Contrast that to War Eagle signal caller, Todd,
who has tossed for 12 TDs in the early going. Vol "D" has done admirable work, but Tigs are
simply too balanced (262 RYpg, 265 PYpg) to be contained.
RATING: AUBURN 88
Central Michigan 44 - BUFFALO 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at CentralMichigan minus 10, and is now minus
8½. Friendly line movement here, due to the emergence of the Bulls as offensive power
(28.5 ppg over their last 13 outings). But losses of QB Willy & RB Stark have left that
particular cupboard somewhat bare: just 17 & 13 pts last 2 wks, vs likes of CentFla & Temple.
And check QB Maynard's 4 INTs in that loss to the Owls. Chips, on the other hand, are
returning to recent form, behind the guidance of veteran QB LeFevour, who has blitzed UB
the past 2 yrs. And CM in off 326-RY explosion. Just too many weapons.
RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88
MIAMI-FLORIDA 27 - Oklahoma 22 - (8:00) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 6½, and is now minus 7.
Originally sided with the Okies here, following the 'Canes' underwhelming performance at
VaTech last week (12 FDs, 209 yds), especially in light to the fact that the Okies enter off a
combined 109-0 scoring edge in their last 2 outings. But word is that UM will be more than
ready for this biggie, & the 'Canes already have a pair of impressive wins, including the
complete throttling of a quality GaTech squad (226 yd edge), in their only home game to
date. And the Sooners will be without Heisman QB Bradford once again.
RATING: MIAMI-FLORIDA 88
CHICAGO 23 - Detroit 22 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Chicago minus 11½, and is now minus 10½. Quick
respect for the Lions (line move) off the snapping of their 19-game losing streak, in upset of
the 'Skins. And what an impressive showing, holding a 154-65 RY edge, along with a 36:48-
23:12 time advantage. Throw in Stafford's 21-of-36 effort (no picks) against Washington's
7th-ranked scoring "D". The visitor has covered 14 of the last 17 games involving the Lions,
while last 6 Bear games have been decided by a TD or less SU, with Chicago just 1-6 ATS
as a DD favorite. And the loss of Urlacher simply has to take its toll.
RATING: DETROIT 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Stanford, Nevada, So Florida, Penn St -- NFL: 49ers, Titans, Packers
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): IowaSt (Pick to -3); Minn (Pick to -2½); NMex (+38 to +35½);
Houst (-14½ to -16½); Buff (+10 to +8½); Ga (-1 to -2); Stanford (-4½ to -6); Indy (+17½ to +16); Arky (Pick
to -1½) - NFL: Bills (+1½ to -1½); Titans (-1 to -2½); Colts (+3 to +2); Cincy (-4 to -5); Lions (+11½ to +10½)
- TIME CHANGES: FSt/BC: 3:30; Okla/UM: 8:00; Idaho/CSt: 10:30; ISt/KansSt: 3:00 -
KEY INJURIES: AF
QB Jefferson (ankle) prob; Ak QB Jacquemain suspended for season; Bay QB Griffin (knee) out for yr, QB
Szymanski (shoulder) ??, RB Finley (ankle) prob; Boise RB Harper (leg) out for yr; UConn QB Frazer (knee)
??; EMich QB Schmitt (knee) out for yr; Fla QB Tebow (concussion) ??; Kent QB Morgan (ankle) prob; Mem
RB Steele (knee) prob; Mich QB Forcier (shoulder) prob; Nev RB Taua (elbow) out 2 weeks; NW RB Simmons
(leg) ??; ND QB Clausen (toe) prob, WR Floyd (collarbone) out for yr, RB Allen (ankle) ??; Okla QB Bradford
(shoulder) doubtful; Rice QB Fanuzzi (shoulder) ??; SMiss RB Fletcher (leg) ??; WV QB Brown (shoulder)
prob - NFL: Bear RB Forte (knee) ??; Brown RB Lewis (hamstring) ??; Cowboy RB Barber (quad) ??; Lion
RB Smith (shoulder) ??; Miami QB Pennington (shoulder) out for yr; Eagle QB McNabb (ribs) ??, RB Westbrook
(ankle) ??; SD RB Tomlinson (ankle) ??; Niner RB Gore (ankle) out; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (ribs) ??; Ram
QB Bulger (rotator cuff) doubtful; 'Skin RB Portis (calf) prob.....
Power Sweep...
COLLEGE
4* Ohio State over Indiana34-6
3* Tulsa over Rice 41-20
3* Temple over E. Michigan 30-10
2* Idaho (+) over Colorado State 31-28
2* South Florida over Syracuse 37-13
2* Florida Atlantic over Wyoming 31-17
Underdog Play--UCLA over Stanford 21-20
NFL...
4* Tennessee over Jacksonville 20-10
3* Cincinnati over Cleveland 31-13
2* St. Louis (+) over San Fran 23-24
2* NY Giants over KC 34-10
Totals Plays
3* Baltimore OVER
3* Cleveland UNDER
3* Detroit OVER
2* Tennessee UNDER
2* Seattle Seabags UNDER
Pro Stat Play--Cincy
Power Ratings Play--NO PLAY
Angle Plays--(3) Tennessee, Giants, Saints
COLLEGE
4* Ohio State over Indiana34-6
3* Tulsa over Rice 41-20
3* Temple over E. Michigan 30-10
2* Idaho (+) over Colorado State 31-28
2* South Florida over Syracuse 37-13
2* Florida Atlantic over Wyoming 31-17
Underdog Play--UCLA over Stanford 21-20
NFL...
4* Tennessee over Jacksonville 20-10
3* Cincinnati over Cleveland 31-13
2* St. Louis (+) over San Fran 23-24
2* NY Giants over KC 34-10
Totals Plays
3* Baltimore OVER
3* Cleveland UNDER
3* Detroit OVER
2* Tennessee UNDER
2* Seattle Seabags UNDER
Pro Stat Play--Cincy
Power Ratings Play--NO PLAY
Angle Plays--(3) Tennessee, Giants, Saints
