Gold Sheet, Extra, CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=08c514eef852bf215a3d773badf21430e04e75f6e8ebb871
Pointwise...
College...
1--Stanford over UCLA 31-17
1--Nevada over UNLV 38-24
2--Penn State over Illinois 30-10
3--Marshall (+) over East Carolina 31-17
3--Ohio State over Indiana 40-10
4--Houston over UTEP 45-24
5--Texas Tech over New Mexico 63-10
5--Texas A & M (+) over Arkansas 34-27
NFL...
2--San Francisco over St. Louis 27-10
3--Tennessee over Jacksonville 27-13
4--Cincinnati over Cleveland 23-10
4--NY Giants over Kansas City 34-16
5--New Orleans over NY Jets 33-20
pdf posted later today
College...
1--Stanford over UCLA 31-17
1--Nevada over UNLV 38-24
2--Penn State over Illinois 30-10
3--Marshall (+) over East Carolina 31-17
3--Ohio State over Indiana 40-10
4--Houston over UTEP 45-24
5--Texas Tech over New Mexico 63-10
5--Texas A & M (+) over Arkansas 34-27
NFL...
2--San Francisco over St. Louis 27-10
3--Tennessee over Jacksonville 27-13
4--Cincinnati over Cleveland 23-10
4--NY Giants over Kansas City 34-16
5--New Orleans over NY Jets 33-20
pdf posted later today
Sports Reporter
Vol. 35, No. 5 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2009
PRO
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4
RECOMMENDED
OAKLAND over *HOUSTON by 1
The Raiders are slowly building their way back up to respectability and the informed bettor
only has a short window to take advantage of them being undervalued. In fact, with
four truly difficult opponents over the next month, Oakland’s prospects of covering the
spread become murkier in the coming weeks. The pre-season expectation of Houston
being a soft defense has played true in the early weeks of the season, with the Texans
boasting an undersized and ineffective defensive front seven and accumulating some of
the worst run defense stats in the league. Franchise cornerback Dunta Robinson can
bitch all he wants about the general manager not paying him (and get fined while doing
so), but it’s not as if Robinson has led a stellar pass defense. The one thing the Raiders
do well on offense is run the ball, and they should do plenty of it against a Houston line
that consistently loses the battle at the point of attack. With a strong Oakland secondary
shutting down Houston’s passing game and a revamped defensive line controlling what
has been an ineffective Texans running game, Matt Schaub will find it difficult to put
points on the board – something that needs to happen in abundance for these Texans to
even think about notching another W. OAKLAND, 21-20.
RECOMMENDED
*JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE by 7
Titans are already 0-3 overall, 0-1 in the AFC South, playing a third road game in four
weeks, against a division rival with double revenge. There will be much “Tennessee can’t
possibly go 0-4…” sentiment, but the better analysis would be, “How could they have
possibly started 10-0 and won 13 games last year? It’s another case of mirrors that were
due back at the rental store, but they didn’t turn them in. Late fees can really sting ’ya.
The Titans had a little too much swagger for an undisciplined upstart team, surprisingly
undisciplined for a Jeff Fisher coached group. Do they have the mentality to get it together
in the face of the bad start? They haven’t lost by much: 3, 3, 7 points. But a favorite
that loses will always fail to cover the spread. They were overvalued when the season
began by virtue of some over-the-top luck covered in the Zone Blitz 2009. Jacksonville
was undervalued by virtue of some similar stuff also covered in the Zone Blitz. Neither
team has used up its anti- or pro-value yet. The Jags are literally flying under the radar:
nobody goes to their games, which are blacked out locally and not featured on the
national network telecasts. Every little bit helps. JACKSONVILLE, 24-17.
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over BALTIMORE by 14
Is there much of a difference between the Baltimore offense and Atlanta’s offense that
the Pats held in check last week? Both have second-season quarterbacks in run-based
offenses who threw the fewest passes in their conference a year ago. Both sides were
averaging a high number of rush attempts per game (32, 36) prior to last week. Both love
their tight ends – Gonzalez and Heap. Both QBs have big arms and like to go deep occasionally
to receivers who don’t attract big headlines. To combat Atlanta’s desire to control
the game on the ground, the Patriots found a way to control the game clock for 40
minutes. Atlanta’s defense is not up to Baltimore’s high standard, so clock ownership
won’t be dominant here. But this is still the best offense the Ravens have faced in 2009,
following KC’s sub-200 yard group, San Diego’s struggling unit without Sproles, and
godawful Cleveland. The last time the teams played in ’07, Tom Brady moved the
Patriots’ offense up and down the field in a game where Baltimore’s offense smashmouthed
its way though an aging and tiring Patriots’ defense. That defense has been
infused with some younger, stronger players and better tacklers in the secondary.
Although DT Vince Wilfork left last week’s game with a leg injury, how many times in the
past have you seen New England overcome a supposed “rash” of “crippling” injuries?
They won 11 games last season with Matt Cassell at quarterback, for cryin’ out loud!
NEW ENGLAND, 23-9.
CINCINNATI over *CLEVELAND by 5
Eric Mangini, the King of Clowns, is in the running for the Rod Marinelli Trophy, which goes
to the coach of the NFL team capable of defying the odds of parity and getting to the dreaded
0-16 record. Mangini’s former team, the New York Jets, went 0-5 ATS to close last season,
but is 3-0 ATS to begin their first “Mangini off” campaign. Mangini is 0-3 SU and ATS
with the Browns and is now the face of an 8-0 ATS bet-against franchise. But Cleveland
closed 2008 0-6 SU and was 0-4 ATS in their last four games of 2008. Mangini, with his
Human Anchoring and oversized clown shoes, has merely applied extra weight to a team that
was already down and probably going to stay there, by importing some Jets’ castoffs to run
around and not make plays, but doing it his way. Quinn or Anderson? “Ooh, I’m not telling,
because the opponent is running scared about how my double-secret quarterback decision
will affect his defensive game plan!” As if, right? This being the NFL, you have to worry about
Cincinnati with a minus sign in front of their pointspread. The Bengals are not familiar with
the concept of winning games everyone expects them to win, when the bet has no margin
for error. CINCINNATI, 18-13.
NY GIANTS over *KANSAS CITY by 11
NFL auto-pilot thinking would cause people to believe that there is no way the Giants are
cranked for this – a non-conference road game after they weathered a hot day in Tampa last
Sunday, while they still have some defensive injuries. But there is a thing called depth, and
a thing called “still early in the season,” when injuries are less of a factor because decent
guys are playing in place of the injured players, and haven’t been worn down themselves,
not yet anyway. The Chiefs’ defense might tackle as bad, or worse, than the Bucs’ defense
right now. Both sad-sack and winless teams have undergone mass personnel and system
changes. It’s all about who you play and when you play them, and right now, the Giants are
a pretty good team playing a bad team that hasn’t had much time to get good enough to
compete for four quarters against a good team. If that makes any sense. At any rate, the
Chiefs look like yet another home dog that doesn’t seem worth the aggravation, given that
the offense has already had two sub-200 yard games with two different quarterbacks. NY
GIANTS, 24-13.
*CHICAGO over DETROIT by 13
Lions win! Big whoop. So did the Packers, the Bears, and the Vikings. The team that Detroit
beat scored 14 points, 5 more than when Washington had beaten the Rams the previous
week. Chicago’s offense appears to be on an upswing after weathering a pair of tricky 3-4
defenses in the first two games. The Bears got to 25 points on the road last Sunday at
Seattle, with Jay Cutler throwing only six incompletions in 27 attempts. A hot, talented quarterback
facing the Lions’ defense is unlikely to regress. The quarterback that faced the Lions
last week – Jason Campbell – definitely was not hot going in. A rookie quarterback like
Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, coming off a win and facing the Bears’ opportunistic defense, will
probably need some help. His team is lacking in support ability. Last Sunday, Washington’s
offense gained 390 yards against the Detroit defense in only 23:12 of possession time. But
since the Redskins are traditionally horrible at converting yardage to points, the Lions prevailed,
with help from an uncharacteristic 160 rushing yards, a stat aided by DT Albert
Haynesworth’s early in-game injury for Washington. CHICAGO, 31-18.
*WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY by 4
There are two reasons to expect Washington to play respectable football this week: they are
home, and feature enough playmakers on defense to give headaches to a Buccaneers squad
that lacks playmakers on offense. Tampa Bay is one of the few teams that lose in a head
coaching match-up to Washington, as an untested Raheem Morris isn’t much better than Jim
Zorn, who continuously handicaps himself with terrible play-calling and team preparation.
How does Zorn expect his beleaguered quarterback Jason Campbell to play up to his contract
year status if he won’t let him take a single chance in the red zone? Perhaps Zorn is
happy to rack up field goals galore, but that’s not how you win football games in the NFL.
With star running back Clinton Portis already dealing with the first of what are sure to be several
nagging injuries this season, this Redskins team has more question marks than you’d
want to see considering the size of their payroll, but the Bucs will either be starting Byron
Leftwich – 7-of-16 for 22 yards and an INT – or Josh Johnson – 4-of-10 for 36 yards in relief
of Leftwich. Campbell has to be better than that but the Redskins nasty habit of failing to convert
yardage into points is a major worry for favorite players. WASHINGTON, 23-19.
*INDIANAPOLIS over SEATTLE by 13
This Indianapolis Colts team certainly has their share of weaknesses – many of which are
the same as in previous incarnations. They lack size and depth on defense and struggle to
run the ball. However, because of their overall talent, it takes a pretty good team to exploit
these weaknesses. While many forecasters predicted Seattle to take a step forward from a
disastrous 2008 season (after all, head coaching turmoil, a hurt franchise cornerback and no
dependable running backs are always good excuses for a 4-12 record), they failed to anticipate
that Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t become any more durable with the passing of time. Seattle
management didn’t exactly go out of their way to improve the running game, and the already
soft defense lost their best linebacker and replaced him with a rookie who is still adjusting
to the speed of the pro game. The Colts shouldn’t have as much trouble establishing their
ground game on their home turf against a weak Seattle run defense and Peyton Manning’s
resulting freedom to open up the passing game will make this a no-contest in the end. INDIANAPOLIS,
27-14.
BEST BET
*NEW ORLEANS over NEW YORK JETS by 18
The New York Jets have quickly become sports page darlings thanks to a hyperbolic and
hyperventilating New York media, an entertaining and blustery head coach and a charismatic
rookie quarterback who has managed to stay calm in the face of extraordinary
pressure. But it’s not always going to be so easy, especially on the road in a very noisy
dome against one of the best offenses of the last decade. The Saints are doing everything
they can to prove that their recent run of success on offense is no joke while the
defense, under new leadership via Gregg Williams, is looking to just stay afloat and keep
enough points off the board while waiting for the offense to put up a 40 spot. It’s one
thing for a strong defense and a rookie quarterback to play well at home against conference
opponents, but going on the road in one of the country’s premier party towns represents
a whole different challenge. Watch for the Jets defense, heavily reliant on their
secondary’s ability to control the opponent’s passing attack, to struggle against a New
Orleans offense that excels at spreading the ball around – regardless of who is covered.
Drew Brees can move in the pocket and gets the ball away quickly, unlike the statues
Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins who were pressured into mistakes, and the rusty Brady
who was working out the kinks for New England. NEW ORLEANS, 31-13.
BUFFALO over *MIAMI by 3
Miami is good enough at chewing up the clock behind an above-average offensive line and
the running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, something that they should
be able to do against an injured Buffalo run defense. However, as demonstrated so beautifully
against the Colts, the Dolphins do not have the offensive personnel to score quickly. How
often have you seen a team hold the ball for over 45 minutes and still lose? On the offensive
side of the ball, Buffalo had serious questions about how Terrell Owens and Trent Edwards
would work together – while Owens has yet to display the skills that made him a superstar
receiver, Edwards has taken a step forward in his progression as an NFL quarterback and
Buffalo has a surprising number of weapons to work with, including Lee Evans, Fred Jackson
and the returning Marshawn Lynch. Look for the Bills to force the issue in the air against a
Dolphins secondary that is not as strong as their run defense, scoring as much as possible
in an effort to put the Dolphins in the same position they struggle so mightily in – behind,
and pressured to score. BUFFALO, 20-17.
*SAN FRANCISCO over ST. LOUIS by 13
Frank Gore’s inability to overcome a nagging ankle injury has to give 49ers boosters heart
palpitations, but their depth at running back is better than it has been in years. While rookie
Glen Coffee struggled in Gore’s stead against the Vikings, San Francisco still managed to pull
out the win and his performance came against one of the best run defenses in all of football.
Coffee did lead the NFL in preseason rushing, for what it’s worth, so it’s undeniable that the
rookie has talent – and an insider source tight with Alabama football assures our staff that
Coffee has the talent to make an excellent NFL running back. Luckily, the 49ers have shown
more than just a strong running game in achieving a 2-1 record. Their defense has been
strong at both run and pass while a worrisome pass rush has been able to pressure opposing
quarterbacks effectively enough to bail out the secondary. The Rams have been unable
to mount anything on either offense or defense resembling a pro football team and are
scrambling due to injuries. Sometimes, it doesn’t matter who you hire as a head coach when
there is no talent to perform on your behalf. SAN FRANCISCO, 23-10.
DALLAS over *DENVER by 7
Who knew Mike Shanahan was the worst coach ever in the NFL? The Broncos, 5-11 ATS for
three straight seasons, are 3-0 SU and ATS for the new regime, despite playing with Kyle
Orton as quarterback. Holy cow. So far, Denver has caught the Bengals when Carson Palmer
hadn’t played serious football for a year, Cleveland, which can’t play serious football, and an
Oakland team quarterbacked by Jamarcus Russell, who is as accurate as one of those electric
football sling-armed quarterbacks. In other words, the Denver defense has faced three
out-of-sync offenses. The Cowboys’ offense is mainly in sync, it’s just that their quarterback
sometimes has a Favre complex with a habit of flinging the ball carelessly downfield thinking
it deserves to be completed for big yardage because he is who he is. This tends to give
the opponent chances it doesn’t deserve. Coming off a short week after the game against
Carolina on Monday Night, Tony Romo will have less time to think and could be less prone to
an in-game short-circuit. DALLAS, 24-17.
*PITTSBURGH over SAN DIEGO by 1
The Steelers have been caught from behind two games in a row. Strange, but true. Usually,
Pittsburgh is the team making the late-game comeback. Are they merely being caught in the
NFL’s inevitable whirlpool of luck? Could be. This team has been the beneficiary of so many
dynamic, odd, instant, favorable game-changing moments over the last four years that things
are way overdue to even out and turn against them. The visiting underdog Norvs bring a double-
revenge incentive with them and despite some injuries to important players, it’s early
enough in the season for the Chargers to have a fighting chance to overcome the bangedup
missing pieces. San Diego is probably healthier than they were for either of last season’s
losses against the Steelers, both of which occurred late in the season. Their chances will be
better if Pittsburgh’s Mr. Game Changer on defense, Troy Polamalu, misses yet another game
with his knee injury. Is it merely a coincidence that the Pittsburgh defense has lost two in a
row late in the game without him on the field? Maybe, maybe not. PITTSBURGH, 24-23.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
*MINNESOTA over GREEN BAY by 6
Drama abounds this weekend as the Pack travels to Minnesota to face the former franchise
player who betrayed them so callously by signing with their most hated NFC North rival, and
has added another miracle comeback to his belt. Brett Favre has a few benefits here: a) not
dealing with his former home crowd – that rematch isn’t until week eight – b) his new teammates
will suddenly run through a brick wall for him after last week’s :02 long-heave gamewinning
pass c) the Vikings are playing on their home turf, featuring a devastating defensive
line against an injured and suspect Green Bay offensive line. The switch from 4-3 to 3-4 has
not gone swimmingly for the Packers, and their inexperience in the new scheme will provide
problems in their attempts to stop Minnesota’s strongest weapon: Adrian Peterson. Green
Bay finally flashed their tremendous potential against the worst team in football, but this
Vikings team will have much to prove after struggling against Singletary’s muscled-up 49ers.
MINNESOTA, 26-20.
Vol. 35, No. 5 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2009
PRO
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4
RECOMMENDED
OAKLAND over *HOUSTON by 1
The Raiders are slowly building their way back up to respectability and the informed bettor
only has a short window to take advantage of them being undervalued. In fact, with
four truly difficult opponents over the next month, Oakland’s prospects of covering the
spread become murkier in the coming weeks. The pre-season expectation of Houston
being a soft defense has played true in the early weeks of the season, with the Texans
boasting an undersized and ineffective defensive front seven and accumulating some of
the worst run defense stats in the league. Franchise cornerback Dunta Robinson can
bitch all he wants about the general manager not paying him (and get fined while doing
so), but it’s not as if Robinson has led a stellar pass defense. The one thing the Raiders
do well on offense is run the ball, and they should do plenty of it against a Houston line
that consistently loses the battle at the point of attack. With a strong Oakland secondary
shutting down Houston’s passing game and a revamped defensive line controlling what
has been an ineffective Texans running game, Matt Schaub will find it difficult to put
points on the board – something that needs to happen in abundance for these Texans to
even think about notching another W. OAKLAND, 21-20.
RECOMMENDED
*JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE by 7
Titans are already 0-3 overall, 0-1 in the AFC South, playing a third road game in four
weeks, against a division rival with double revenge. There will be much “Tennessee can’t
possibly go 0-4…” sentiment, but the better analysis would be, “How could they have
possibly started 10-0 and won 13 games last year? It’s another case of mirrors that were
due back at the rental store, but they didn’t turn them in. Late fees can really sting ’ya.
The Titans had a little too much swagger for an undisciplined upstart team, surprisingly
undisciplined for a Jeff Fisher coached group. Do they have the mentality to get it together
in the face of the bad start? They haven’t lost by much: 3, 3, 7 points. But a favorite
that loses will always fail to cover the spread. They were overvalued when the season
began by virtue of some over-the-top luck covered in the Zone Blitz 2009. Jacksonville
was undervalued by virtue of some similar stuff also covered in the Zone Blitz. Neither
team has used up its anti- or pro-value yet. The Jags are literally flying under the radar:
nobody goes to their games, which are blacked out locally and not featured on the
national network telecasts. Every little bit helps. JACKSONVILLE, 24-17.
BEST BET
*NEW ENGLAND over BALTIMORE by 14
Is there much of a difference between the Baltimore offense and Atlanta’s offense that
the Pats held in check last week? Both have second-season quarterbacks in run-based
offenses who threw the fewest passes in their conference a year ago. Both sides were
averaging a high number of rush attempts per game (32, 36) prior to last week. Both love
their tight ends – Gonzalez and Heap. Both QBs have big arms and like to go deep occasionally
to receivers who don’t attract big headlines. To combat Atlanta’s desire to control
the game on the ground, the Patriots found a way to control the game clock for 40
minutes. Atlanta’s defense is not up to Baltimore’s high standard, so clock ownership
won’t be dominant here. But this is still the best offense the Ravens have faced in 2009,
following KC’s sub-200 yard group, San Diego’s struggling unit without Sproles, and
godawful Cleveland. The last time the teams played in ’07, Tom Brady moved the
Patriots’ offense up and down the field in a game where Baltimore’s offense smashmouthed
its way though an aging and tiring Patriots’ defense. That defense has been
infused with some younger, stronger players and better tacklers in the secondary.
Although DT Vince Wilfork left last week’s game with a leg injury, how many times in the
past have you seen New England overcome a supposed “rash” of “crippling” injuries?
They won 11 games last season with Matt Cassell at quarterback, for cryin’ out loud!
NEW ENGLAND, 23-9.
CINCINNATI over *CLEVELAND by 5
Eric Mangini, the King of Clowns, is in the running for the Rod Marinelli Trophy, which goes
to the coach of the NFL team capable of defying the odds of parity and getting to the dreaded
0-16 record. Mangini’s former team, the New York Jets, went 0-5 ATS to close last season,
but is 3-0 ATS to begin their first “Mangini off” campaign. Mangini is 0-3 SU and ATS
with the Browns and is now the face of an 8-0 ATS bet-against franchise. But Cleveland
closed 2008 0-6 SU and was 0-4 ATS in their last four games of 2008. Mangini, with his
Human Anchoring and oversized clown shoes, has merely applied extra weight to a team that
was already down and probably going to stay there, by importing some Jets’ castoffs to run
around and not make plays, but doing it his way. Quinn or Anderson? “Ooh, I’m not telling,
because the opponent is running scared about how my double-secret quarterback decision
will affect his defensive game plan!” As if, right? This being the NFL, you have to worry about
Cincinnati with a minus sign in front of their pointspread. The Bengals are not familiar with
the concept of winning games everyone expects them to win, when the bet has no margin
for error. CINCINNATI, 18-13.
NY GIANTS over *KANSAS CITY by 11
NFL auto-pilot thinking would cause people to believe that there is no way the Giants are
cranked for this – a non-conference road game after they weathered a hot day in Tampa last
Sunday, while they still have some defensive injuries. But there is a thing called depth, and
a thing called “still early in the season,” when injuries are less of a factor because decent
guys are playing in place of the injured players, and haven’t been worn down themselves,
not yet anyway. The Chiefs’ defense might tackle as bad, or worse, than the Bucs’ defense
right now. Both sad-sack and winless teams have undergone mass personnel and system
changes. It’s all about who you play and when you play them, and right now, the Giants are
a pretty good team playing a bad team that hasn’t had much time to get good enough to
compete for four quarters against a good team. If that makes any sense. At any rate, the
Chiefs look like yet another home dog that doesn’t seem worth the aggravation, given that
the offense has already had two sub-200 yard games with two different quarterbacks. NY
GIANTS, 24-13.
*CHICAGO over DETROIT by 13
Lions win! Big whoop. So did the Packers, the Bears, and the Vikings. The team that Detroit
beat scored 14 points, 5 more than when Washington had beaten the Rams the previous
week. Chicago’s offense appears to be on an upswing after weathering a pair of tricky 3-4
defenses in the first two games. The Bears got to 25 points on the road last Sunday at
Seattle, with Jay Cutler throwing only six incompletions in 27 attempts. A hot, talented quarterback
facing the Lions’ defense is unlikely to regress. The quarterback that faced the Lions
last week – Jason Campbell – definitely was not hot going in. A rookie quarterback like
Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, coming off a win and facing the Bears’ opportunistic defense, will
probably need some help. His team is lacking in support ability. Last Sunday, Washington’s
offense gained 390 yards against the Detroit defense in only 23:12 of possession time. But
since the Redskins are traditionally horrible at converting yardage to points, the Lions prevailed,
with help from an uncharacteristic 160 rushing yards, a stat aided by DT Albert
Haynesworth’s early in-game injury for Washington. CHICAGO, 31-18.
*WASHINGTON over TAMPA BAY by 4
There are two reasons to expect Washington to play respectable football this week: they are
home, and feature enough playmakers on defense to give headaches to a Buccaneers squad
that lacks playmakers on offense. Tampa Bay is one of the few teams that lose in a head
coaching match-up to Washington, as an untested Raheem Morris isn’t much better than Jim
Zorn, who continuously handicaps himself with terrible play-calling and team preparation.
How does Zorn expect his beleaguered quarterback Jason Campbell to play up to his contract
year status if he won’t let him take a single chance in the red zone? Perhaps Zorn is
happy to rack up field goals galore, but that’s not how you win football games in the NFL.
With star running back Clinton Portis already dealing with the first of what are sure to be several
nagging injuries this season, this Redskins team has more question marks than you’d
want to see considering the size of their payroll, but the Bucs will either be starting Byron
Leftwich – 7-of-16 for 22 yards and an INT – or Josh Johnson – 4-of-10 for 36 yards in relief
of Leftwich. Campbell has to be better than that but the Redskins nasty habit of failing to convert
yardage into points is a major worry for favorite players. WASHINGTON, 23-19.
*INDIANAPOLIS over SEATTLE by 13
This Indianapolis Colts team certainly has their share of weaknesses – many of which are
the same as in previous incarnations. They lack size and depth on defense and struggle to
run the ball. However, because of their overall talent, it takes a pretty good team to exploit
these weaknesses. While many forecasters predicted Seattle to take a step forward from a
disastrous 2008 season (after all, head coaching turmoil, a hurt franchise cornerback and no
dependable running backs are always good excuses for a 4-12 record), they failed to anticipate
that Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t become any more durable with the passing of time. Seattle
management didn’t exactly go out of their way to improve the running game, and the already
soft defense lost their best linebacker and replaced him with a rookie who is still adjusting
to the speed of the pro game. The Colts shouldn’t have as much trouble establishing their
ground game on their home turf against a weak Seattle run defense and Peyton Manning’s
resulting freedom to open up the passing game will make this a no-contest in the end. INDIANAPOLIS,
27-14.
BEST BET
*NEW ORLEANS over NEW YORK JETS by 18
The New York Jets have quickly become sports page darlings thanks to a hyperbolic and
hyperventilating New York media, an entertaining and blustery head coach and a charismatic
rookie quarterback who has managed to stay calm in the face of extraordinary
pressure. But it’s not always going to be so easy, especially on the road in a very noisy
dome against one of the best offenses of the last decade. The Saints are doing everything
they can to prove that their recent run of success on offense is no joke while the
defense, under new leadership via Gregg Williams, is looking to just stay afloat and keep
enough points off the board while waiting for the offense to put up a 40 spot. It’s one
thing for a strong defense and a rookie quarterback to play well at home against conference
opponents, but going on the road in one of the country’s premier party towns represents
a whole different challenge. Watch for the Jets defense, heavily reliant on their
secondary’s ability to control the opponent’s passing attack, to struggle against a New
Orleans offense that excels at spreading the ball around – regardless of who is covered.
Drew Brees can move in the pocket and gets the ball away quickly, unlike the statues
Matt Schaub and Kerry Collins who were pressured into mistakes, and the rusty Brady
who was working out the kinks for New England. NEW ORLEANS, 31-13.
BUFFALO over *MIAMI by 3
Miami is good enough at chewing up the clock behind an above-average offensive line and
the running back tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, something that they should
be able to do against an injured Buffalo run defense. However, as demonstrated so beautifully
against the Colts, the Dolphins do not have the offensive personnel to score quickly. How
often have you seen a team hold the ball for over 45 minutes and still lose? On the offensive
side of the ball, Buffalo had serious questions about how Terrell Owens and Trent Edwards
would work together – while Owens has yet to display the skills that made him a superstar
receiver, Edwards has taken a step forward in his progression as an NFL quarterback and
Buffalo has a surprising number of weapons to work with, including Lee Evans, Fred Jackson
and the returning Marshawn Lynch. Look for the Bills to force the issue in the air against a
Dolphins secondary that is not as strong as their run defense, scoring as much as possible
in an effort to put the Dolphins in the same position they struggle so mightily in – behind,
and pressured to score. BUFFALO, 20-17.
*SAN FRANCISCO over ST. LOUIS by 13
Frank Gore’s inability to overcome a nagging ankle injury has to give 49ers boosters heart
palpitations, but their depth at running back is better than it has been in years. While rookie
Glen Coffee struggled in Gore’s stead against the Vikings, San Francisco still managed to pull
out the win and his performance came against one of the best run defenses in all of football.
Coffee did lead the NFL in preseason rushing, for what it’s worth, so it’s undeniable that the
rookie has talent – and an insider source tight with Alabama football assures our staff that
Coffee has the talent to make an excellent NFL running back. Luckily, the 49ers have shown
more than just a strong running game in achieving a 2-1 record. Their defense has been
strong at both run and pass while a worrisome pass rush has been able to pressure opposing
quarterbacks effectively enough to bail out the secondary. The Rams have been unable
to mount anything on either offense or defense resembling a pro football team and are
scrambling due to injuries. Sometimes, it doesn’t matter who you hire as a head coach when
there is no talent to perform on your behalf. SAN FRANCISCO, 23-10.
DALLAS over *DENVER by 7
Who knew Mike Shanahan was the worst coach ever in the NFL? The Broncos, 5-11 ATS for
three straight seasons, are 3-0 SU and ATS for the new regime, despite playing with Kyle
Orton as quarterback. Holy cow. So far, Denver has caught the Bengals when Carson Palmer
hadn’t played serious football for a year, Cleveland, which can’t play serious football, and an
Oakland team quarterbacked by Jamarcus Russell, who is as accurate as one of those electric
football sling-armed quarterbacks. In other words, the Denver defense has faced three
out-of-sync offenses. The Cowboys’ offense is mainly in sync, it’s just that their quarterback
sometimes has a Favre complex with a habit of flinging the ball carelessly downfield thinking
it deserves to be completed for big yardage because he is who he is. This tends to give
the opponent chances it doesn’t deserve. Coming off a short week after the game against
Carolina on Monday Night, Tony Romo will have less time to think and could be less prone to
an in-game short-circuit. DALLAS, 24-17.
*PITTSBURGH over SAN DIEGO by 1
The Steelers have been caught from behind two games in a row. Strange, but true. Usually,
Pittsburgh is the team making the late-game comeback. Are they merely being caught in the
NFL’s inevitable whirlpool of luck? Could be. This team has been the beneficiary of so many
dynamic, odd, instant, favorable game-changing moments over the last four years that things
are way overdue to even out and turn against them. The visiting underdog Norvs bring a double-
revenge incentive with them and despite some injuries to important players, it’s early
enough in the season for the Chargers to have a fighting chance to overcome the bangedup
missing pieces. San Diego is probably healthier than they were for either of last season’s
losses against the Steelers, both of which occurred late in the season. Their chances will be
better if Pittsburgh’s Mr. Game Changer on defense, Troy Polamalu, misses yet another game
with his knee injury. Is it merely a coincidence that the Pittsburgh defense has lost two in a
row late in the game without him on the field? Maybe, maybe not. PITTSBURGH, 24-23.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
*MINNESOTA over GREEN BAY by 6
Drama abounds this weekend as the Pack travels to Minnesota to face the former franchise
player who betrayed them so callously by signing with their most hated NFC North rival, and
has added another miracle comeback to his belt. Brett Favre has a few benefits here: a) not
dealing with his former home crowd – that rematch isn’t until week eight – b) his new teammates
will suddenly run through a brick wall for him after last week’s :02 long-heave gamewinning
pass c) the Vikings are playing on their home turf, featuring a devastating defensive
line against an injured and suspect Green Bay offensive line. The switch from 4-3 to 3-4 has
not gone swimmingly for the Packers, and their inexperience in the new scheme will provide
problems in their attempts to stop Minnesota’s strongest weapon: Adrian Peterson. Green
Bay finally flashed their tremendous potential against the worst team in football, but this
Vikings team will have much to prove after struggling against Singletary’s muscled-up 49ers.
MINNESOTA, 26-20.
Sports Reporter
Vol. 35, No. 5 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2009
COLLEGE
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
*LOUISIANA TECH over HAWAII by 4
La. Tech has struggled against dynamic rushing attacks in losses to Auburn and Navy.
Hawaii doesn’t like to run. Bad news – Hawaii throws it well. The host Bulldogs have the
talent in the secondary to hang, but can they pressure the QB? Warriors’ QB Alexander
is up TO Hawaii’s familiar aerial tricks and has settled on a few go-to wide outs.
LOUISIANA TECH, 31-27.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1
*WEST VIRGINIA over COLORADO by 17
Any chance for WVU not being up for this non-conference game will be overtaken by the
facts that (a) this is prime time action; and (b) they lost to Colorado last year. Buffs o-line
has been shuffled more than a deck of cards and they aren’t playing well enough to support
a strong run game. That means mini-QB Hawkins will be asked to chuck it 30+
times. Not a good game plan against the Mountaineers 3-3-5 defense. WVU’s speed in
the backfield alone will stretch a slow defensive team well out of their comfort zone.
WEST VIRGINIA, 30-13.
SOUTHERN MISS over *UAB by 6
One of these teams lost 70-14 to the other last season. It wasn’t Southern Miss. If UAB
players have any guts, then they have already put the biggest, fattest circle you’ve ever
seen around this C-USA re-hook, then they show up and play hair-on-fire football on all
three units for 60 minutes to show these guys and the national audience that the talent
gap and last year’s scoreboard are two different things. UAB was –6 in turnovers in last
season’s loss. You’d like ‘em more if Southern Miss’ defense wasn’t playing so well
against the run so far. SOUTHERN MISS, 29-23.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2
PITTSBURGH over *LOUISVILLE by 8
Pitt's defensive philosophy is to shut down the run, force an opponent to pass, then bring
the rush. Louisville’s defensive philosophy? They don’t have one. The current and prior
head coaches were and are offensive guys, and the Cardinals are on their third defensive
coordinator in three years. Sometimes, a team’s best defense is having head coach
Dave Wannstedt on the opposite sideline, but you can’t always bank on wacky Wanny
allowing the other side to stay in the game, especially if Pitt forces as many turnovers
as a more experienced Louisville offense gave ’em last year. PITTSBURGH, 24-16.
*BYU over UTAH STATE by 21
These two have averaged 65 points per game in the last 10 battles for the “Beehive
Boot.” Most of the scoring has been done by the Cougars and that’ll be the case here.
Utah State is playing a lot more press man coverage this year meaning that BYU’s vet
QB Hall will be going mano v. mano with the Aggie corners. Advantage Hall. BYU, 38-17.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3
SOUTH FLORIDA over *SYRACUSE by 12
Saturday matinee horror movie for Syracuse quarterback Greg Paulus, watching wideeyed
in 3-D as NFL-bound DE George Selvie and the rest of the sack-hungry South
Florida front seven descend upon him on passing downs. After a September of vanilla
against non-conference Big Ten foes, Paulus will be stuffed into the popcorn popper, butter
and salt included. SOUTH FLORIDA, 21-9.
EAST CAROLINA over *MARSHALL by 3
The only thing stranger than Marshall covering two in a row is that the outfit formerly
and probably soon-to-be known as the Blundering Herd was highlighted as a selection
in the Midweek Update each time. Moving up in defensive class, their offense might need
more than just RB Darius Marshall to marshall it along to a third straight money-making
afternoon. ECU’s QB Pinckney is a lot more experienced than the Bass kid that Memphis
tried to bait Marshall’s defense with last Saturday. EAST CAROLINA, 20-17.
*PURDUE over NORTHWESTERN by 10
Do not be too interested by the 300 popgun passing yards of Northwestern QB Mike
Kafka. If Northwestern is rushing for only 2.2 yards per carry like they did against
Minnesota last Saturday, and only 1.9 yards per carry against Syracuse, like they did two
weeks ago, and only 3.9 yards per carry against Eastern Michigan, like they did three
weeks ago…well, you get the idea. All future opponents will pick up on that pretty quickly.
PURDUE, 30-20.
WISCONSIN over *MINNESOTA by 3
The Gophers’ transition from the spread to a more conventional offense has been met
with mixed reviews. Passing game – B+, with 221 yards per game. Running attack – D,
only 104 yards per contest. Stop the aerial attack, and you stop Minnesota. The strength
of Wisky’s defense is their secondary. Those defensive backs need only key on Gopher
WR Decker, who accounts for 59% of the team’s receiving yards. WISCONSIN, 27-24.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE over *WAKE FOREST by 3
Wake Forest’s offense rarely sees more than 10 yards downfield. NC State’s best defenders
play very close to the line of scrimmage. Deacon quarterback Riley Skinner will complete
a lot of passes, but he won’t make plays like Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson. Kid has
12 TD passes in the last three games and has the ability to extend drives with his feet.
NC STATE, 19-16.
CLEMSON over *MARYLAND by 14
Visiting Tigers play with revenge after a 20-17 loss as the #20 ranked team last year.
Clemson’s defense is more talented and experienced than Maryland’s offense and won’t
have much trouble holding the Terps down. With a bye next week and a realistic shot at
winning the ACC Atlantic for the first time, Dabo Sweeney’s Tigers will be ready to maul.
CLEMSON, 25-11.
*NORTH CAROLINA over VIRGINIA by 17
UNC has all of the pieces in place in coach Butch Davis’ 3rd year, whereas UVA is trying
to pick up the pieces after a 0-3 start. The bye week should help the Cavs, who got their
new passing game going two weeks ago. Too bad they’re playing a very stout defense
that will be out for blood after getting predictably elephant trampled by the Georgia Tech
triple option circus in Atlanta last week. UNC players said the loss to Tech – a game
where the Jackets owned the ball for 42 minutes – was “embarrassing.” That doesn’t
usually sit well with Butch Davis. NORTH CAROLINA, 27-10.
BEST BET
FLORIDA STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 22
We’re going for the Best Bet Trifecta in Florida State games. BC is out-matched in
the athlete department, so they’ll have to go shopping in the “run the ball/play great
defense” aisle. Worked in the past, but the Eagle front seven is young and not yet
ready for prime time. The offensive line – thought to be the strength of the team –
mustered only 54 yards against Clemson two weeks ago. The ’Noles defense will just
be happy not to see fleet-footed USF backup QB Daniels under center. Don’t expect
much over 200 total yards for the home team. On offense, South Florida held FSU to
19 yards rushing and pressured QB Ponder all day. The Bulls have one of the best
defensive lines in the country…the Eagles do not. When motivated, Bowden’s bunch
plays well. Coming off a home butt-kicking at the hands of an in-state little brother
should fuel their fire. FLORIDA STATE, 31-9.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *BUFFALO by 14
It is still happening, people. Buffalo, the luckiest SOBs in the nation last season when
they recovered 26 of 39 opposing fumbles, lost four interceptions and one fumble themselves
in last week’s Recommended pick against them with Temple (and got only one
turnover back). This is how football tends to work. The mirrors were due back at the
Rent-All, but they forgot to return them and now Buffalo bandwagon backers are paying
a late fee through the nose. Central Michigan’s defense is a little too soft and nondynamic
for our taste but their offense generally moves the ball, hangs onto it, and
scores. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 34-20.
BEST BET
TOLEDO over *BALL STATE by 18
With the point-shavers gone, Toledo’s offense gets up and down the field pretty good
against defenses that aren’t among the nation’s strongest. Their shutout loss vs. Ohio
State isn’t looking too bad after the Buckeyes shut out Illinois last Saturday. To date,
there is a huge disparity in the teams’ respective Yards per Attempt passing this season.
Ball State is generating less than half of Toledo’s 9.0 yards per pass attempt.
Toledo’s experienced QB Aaron Opelt and some athletic mismatch receivers are playing
catch while Ball State’s newbie QB Kelly Page struggles after Ball State’s mass
graduations and defections left promoted head coach Stan “Empty” Parrish praying
for help.We’re not gonna be fooled by Ball State’s 30 points at Auburn last Saturday.
An offensive output of only 260 yards against Auburn vanilla defense doesn’t figure
to translate into enough points vs. a conference foe whose defense knows they want
to give the ball to RB MiQuayle Lewis a lot, then hope for the best. TOLEDO, 42-24.
RECOMMENDED
ALABAMA over *KENTUCKY by 8
[Kentucky, plus the points.] ’Bama coach Saban is the master of getting his kids to
play one game at a time. But if there is a letdown game, then at Kentucky -- in
between SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss -- is the game. The Tide’s defense
alone can win this game against a very average Wildcat offense – but expect the UK
D to keep Alabama well below its average of 40 points per game. Coach Rich Brooks
will employ the ‘get a few first downs, wind the clock, play solid defense’ game plan.
A relatively weak Arkansas defense held Bama to just 3.3 yards per carry and only
two yards per carry after excluding a 52-yard TD scamper by Tide RB Trent
Richardson. Brooks’ defense will stand firm up front and will also make Bama’s
passing game beat ’em short – ‘cause Tide QB McElroy has hit a lot of big plays
downfield this season. ALABAMA, 24-16.
MISSISSIPPI over *VANDERBILT by 11
Rebels’ grey offense had ’em feeling blue after getting punked by South Carolina.
Houston Nutt must get his fellas on track, ’cause a home date with Alabama lingers next
week. Vandy’s defense will give Ole Miss a game for four quarters, but there are two
problems for the home team: (a) they don’t have as many future pros on their D as does
South Carolina; and (b) their offense won’t be able to control the clock. Difference in athletes
was apparent in Oxford last year, but the Rebels turned it over 6 times, including a
1st and goal fumble out of the end zone late in the game. Lady luck won’t be so cruel
this week. OLE MISS, 28-17.
CINCINNATI over *MIAMI-OH by 25
Being sandwiched between Fresno State and South Florida, off back-to-back strong
non-conference foes Oregon State and Fresno, might cause Cincinnati to take the
regional rivalry lightly. But Miami-OH, 1-8 ATS in their last nine games under two coaching
staffs, have had major problems scoring and holding onto the football for a while
now. Although QB Daniel (Augh!) Raudabaugh might continue to sit in favor of the latest
college quarterback named Zac, freshman Dysart pulled a Raudabaugh last Saturday,
“leading” the Redhawks to 500+ offensive yards…and a 10-point defeat littered with 5
turnovers. The position of QB at Miami-OH is a candidate for 12th Man of the Year, for
opposing teams. CINCINNATI, 45-20.
TEMPLE over *EASTERN MICHIGAN by 8
EMU played a “tough” non-conference slate and scored enough points to make people
take notice, but there will be no more vanilla defense played against them by opponents
who don’t know their personnel. Temple knows the personnel, and the Owls have one of
the best defenses in the MAC. They also know that Eastern’s defense hasn’t made a big
stop since Hector was a pup. TEMPLE, 24-16.
TULANE over *ARMY by 1
The low point in Toledo Bob’s Tulane tenure is debatable, but on the table for discussion
is the 44-13 home loss suffered against Army last season, when the Green Wave gained
486 offensive yards but lost by four touchdowns in large part to a –4 TO Ratio for the
afternoon. This included a pair of defensive TDs by Army, who also blocked a punt and a
field goal. Army will continue to more little things right than Tulane, but Tulane’s power
rating is deflated from playing machine-like offenes, which Army is not. If the visitors can
translate the yards into points this time around, Army might have to throw to win and
that wouldn’t be good, because Tulane rushes the passer well. TULANE, 28-27.
VIRGINIA TECH over *DUKE by 17
Good matchup for the Hokies here. Their secondary is top 20 nationally and the only way
Duke can move it is by air. V-Tech opened up the offense last week allowing QB Taylor
to run the football and their o-line shouldn’t have a problem moving Duke defenders.
Blue Devils should be able to move it some between the 20s, but points will be tough to
come by. Just ask Miami-FL. VIRGINIA TECH, 33-16.
*NOTRE DAME over WASHINGTON by 8
The Irish defense is vying for membership in the 400 Yards Club. Co-defensive might
want credit for only 200 yards allowed apiece on their resumes, but the bottom line
could be that since middling Big Ten offenses have been marching up and down the field
against Notre Dame, a middling Pac 10 offense with a solid, dual threat QB like Jake
Locker might as well do the same. Michael Floyd’s injury absence makes Golden Tate an
easier receiver for the Huskies to cover, and Jimmy Clausen easier to intercept. NOTRE
DAME, 38-30.
LSU over *GEORGIA by 1
Georgia linebacker Darryl Gamble returned two INTs for TDs against LSU last season, so
the 52 points allowed by LSU in the embarrassing home defeat was not all on their
defense. But that unit will go out and try to play with a vengeance anyway, while the
offense enjoys the difference between being led by Jordan Jefferson, instead of the giftgiving
Jarret “Pick Six” Lee. Georgia’s linebackers have been getting juggled around and
if the situation is still unsettled, LSU’s big running backs won’t mind unsettling them a
little more. Regular point-spread backers of either side since the beginning of last season
are pretty much tapped out. LSU, 24-23.
AIR FORCE over *NAVY by 1
Air Force loves to hold the football and through four games had run 302 offensive plays
to their opponents’ 228. Middies’ defense, especially their front seven, will surprise you
with their talent, so the fly boys may have some trouble owning the clock. That said, the
Falcons haven’t had a game where they ran it less than 58 times, which is a testament
to their offensive efficiency. After losing six straight to Navy, air finally conquers sea. AIR
FORCE, 23-22.
GEORGIA TECH over *MISSISSIPPI STATE by 11
Tech is gonna run that triple option until its’ perfected – meaning there is no change in
offensive game plan just because this is a non-conference tilt. Bulldogs gave up 8.1
yards per carry vs. Tech last year, when their defense was their strength. This year, firstyear
coach Mullen will sacrifice defense for offense, and since his squad couldn’t tackle
a dynamic Auburn running game, they figure to fare worse here. ACC squads play the
Jackets every year and have gone to school on defending Johnson’s offense. MSU is
done with Tech after this season and won’t put in a ton of extra time trying to de-code
the mystery. GEORGIA TECH, 34-23.
SUPER BEST BET
*MIAMI-FL over OKLAHOMA by 18
Were the Hurricanes going to sweep the nation’s most difficult opening schedule?
Probably not. Was a loss to Virginia Tech going to ruin their season? Probably not,
even though they are in the same division of the ACC. Did a driving rainstorm create
some early weirdness that put them in a hole they couldn’t recover from against a
defense as good as Virginia Tech’s in Blacksburg last Saturday? Probably. Did some
of the Hurricanes and then first-season coaches lose 51-13 at Oklahoma in Week 2
of the 2007 season? Definitely. Is Oklahoma still overrated because they made the
National Championship Game last season and run up some big scores against outclassed
opposition since losing to BYU on opening day? Probably. OU’s bye week to
prepare for the Hurricanes will be widely considered a check mark in the “advantage”
category. But there’s only so much advance you can do when the other team’s
offense has as many playmakers as the Hurricanes have, and when the other team’s
defense is quick enough to rattle your young visiting quarterback. MIAMI-FL, 31-13.
PENN STATE over *ILLINOIS by 3
The Penn State offense is still transitioning from the loss of three first team Big 12 offensive
linemen and their top three WRs from 2008. You saw the effects vs. Iowa. Home
team offense doesn’t have the same excuse, but the results to date have been pathetic.
Perhaps PSU’s youthful secondary will give Illini QB Williams some space to find his talented
receivers, but “perhaps” isn’t what we back here. PENN STATE, 24-21.
MICHIGAN over *MICHIGAN STATE by 6
In the middle of last week prior to squeaking past Indiana, when Rich Rodriguez said
he’d like his Michigan team to be good enough to play poorly and still win, the
Coachspeak to English dictionary translated it to: “We’re pointing to Michigan State.”
Michigan leaves home for the first time this season, but it’s becoming obvious that
Michigan State’s best defensive player was running back Javon Ringer – because he
carried the ball 40 times, was hard to bring down, ate clock, and kept that unit off the
field. MICHIGAN, 26-20.
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 8
Host NIU got sandwiched by Idaho’s balanced offense last Saturday, in between their win
at Big Ten Purdue, and this MAC opener.Western Michgan’s offense is not balanced. It’s
too much of overrated Tim Hiller’s short passes. When you know what’s coming and
you’ve been waiting for it, it’s easier to stop. It’s also easier to coach a team up to a big
game when it’s coming off a loss. Northern Illinois was forced to use three quarterbacks
in last year’s meeting, but still gained 400+ yards and lost by only 3 points. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, 28-20.
OHIO over *BOWLING GREEN by 1
Matched against a familiar, pass-happy offensive foe at their own level, the Ohio defense
should be in their element. They’ve looked okay before and still failed to get the job done
for their backers, but if Theo Scott continues to play quarterback for them in place of betkiller
Boo Jackson, they might change their profile and start making a run at the MAC
East title in a race that begins right here. Their defense played well enough in last season’s
28-3 home loss, but Jackson was 6-for-16 with two INTs. Boo! OHIO, 24-23.
*NEVADA over UNLV by 3
Vegas rush D must hold strong for an upset shot. They gave up 444 yards on the ground
to Nevada last year, but that was after they had mailed the season in. A more experienced
and motivated defense hasn’t allowed any team over 200 yards on the ground this
year. The pass D is much more suspect, but Nevada QB Kaepernick lost most of last
year’s WR production to graduation and the new crew hasn’t produced. UNLV QB Clayton
will put up numbers and make this interesting. NEVADA, 30-27.
COLORADO STATE over *IDAHO by 8
Quote from the Dos Equis guy, “Idaho doesn’t always play winnable games, but when
they do, they prefer to throw the kitchen sink at you.” CSU will get a big-time battle from
the 3-1 Vandals that have dreams of hitting that 6-win bowl-eligible nirvana. Trouble for
the Vandals is that their talent level isn’t there, especially on the defensive front seven.
Rams should have a field day with their tailbacks running behind the most experienced
offensive line in the nation. COLORADO STATE, 35-27.
*IOWA STATE over KANSAS STATE by 6
Both teams are transitioning through coaching changes and have struggled as a result.
ISU may get through it quicker as they have a huge offensive line and some talent in the
backfield. Their coach, Rhoads, is also a defense guy and that side of the ball tends to
“get there” before the offense. IOWA STATE, 26-20.
*ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE by 5
In the last three meetings, ASU has won only once ’cause they could not protect the QB.
Oregon State had 13 sacks in those meetings, but those were three seasons when the
Beavers averaged 42 sacks per year. OSU is on pace to nab only 6 – yes 6 – sacks this
year. Sun Devils QB Sullivan hit only 10-of-32 at Georgia last week, but that was in a
monsoon on the road. The desert sun and home field comforts will allow him to take
advantage of a young secondary this week. ARIZONA STATE, 26-21.
*OREGON over WASHINGTON STATE by 27
WSU’s poor rush defense will provide an additional turbo boost to Oregon’s offensive
engine that finally got outta first gear last week. The Cougars lack defensive speed and
their front seven couldn’t stop a parked car. The Ducks could give up some points after
being so jacked up for the Cal game, but they’ll be scoring until the final horn with backup
players so any defensive letdown won’t impact the outcome. OREGON, 45-28.
BEST BET
*BAYLOR over KENT STATE by 34
The Bears have already scored 21 and 22 points against very competent ACC and
Big East defenses, and Kent’s stop guys probably don’t have enough resistance to
get off the field until Baylor’s decent offensive balance crosses the goal line. Kent’s
offense doesn’t have enough weapons to control the game clock like UConn did (for
40 minutes, with help from Baylor turnovers). In its first game up in conference without
“the offense” known as tailback Eugene Jarvis (out for the season with an injury),
Kent got beat by 34-7 by what appears to be a less than stellar Boston College team.
Three of their offensive drives stalled for field goals vs. Miami-OH last Saturday, and
they didn’t get to 300 yards of offense despite being +5 in turnovers. Baylor QB
Robert Griffin has a sore knee, on which he led four scoring drives before halftime
last Saturday before watching the back-ups get three more in the second half. BAYLOR,
44-10.
*CENTRAL FLORIDA over MEMPHIS by 5
The quarterback change to Bass couldn’t bait us (see Midweek Update winner on
Marshall vs. Memphis). Memphis is now forced to take its sloppy act on the road into
another of the best of the C-USA defenses. Tommy West was hoping that some big-conference
transfers would help move ‘em on up this season but so far, no good for
Memphis. It’s still early, but the O’Learys are a little more fundamentally sound despite
having an offense that nobody would be proud of. The other two units will be very happy
to pounce on every little Memphis mistake. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 24-19.
UCLA over *STANFORD by 1
Bruins hold the athletic advantage on both sides of the ball, but Kevin Craft is at QB and
his spotty play neutralizes his own team’s edge on offense. Where UCLA wins this is with
their run defense. Stanford loves to hand off to bruising TB Gerhart, who is highly effective
when his o-line gets a push. Bruins excel at getting penetration in the backfield and
Gerhart isn’t a juke & jive type back. UCLA, 21-20.
*TEXAS TECH over NEW MEXICO by 32
Lobos’ new spread offense will ensure that Tech gets their hands on the ball a bunch.
Not a good thing, especially when your two best defensive players from 2008 were cornerbacks
who are now playing on Sunday. Red Raiders’ coach Leach doesn’t care if he’s
playing Texas or the local flag football team; he loves to showcase his offense. Coming
off two losses, there is also a swagger attitude to restore. TEXAS TECH, 52-20.
OHIO STATE over *INDIANA by 16
Hoosiers had Michigan in the bag last week, but let them slither out. If they’re still thinking
about that loss, Ohio State will knock them into next week. IU won’t come close to
the 467 total yards that they racked up vs. Michigan, but their defense line is talented
and should keep a vanilla offense from getting too colorful. After OSU put up 30 points
on Illinois last week and the Michigan-Indiana game hit a 69-point total, totals players
can slip in UNDER cover here. OHIO STATE, 28-12.
TULSA over *RICE by 17
Vanderbilt ran the ball 43 times for 216 yards, scored four rushing touchdowns and beat
Rice 36-17 Saturday night in Houston. You can pretty much use last Saturday’s recap to
forecast this Saturday’s result. Just substitute “Tulsa” for “Vanderbilt,” and give Rice a
little credit for the defensive class drop being taken. TULSA, 41-24.
*TEXAS A&M over ARKANSAS by 4
You’re in for a good ’ol fashioned shoot out that would make John Wayne proud. A&M
QB Johnson will be cleaning his gun this week after watching the Arkansas secondary
give up 7 TD passes of 21+ yards in the last two weeks. At 1-2, Arkansas coach Petrino
knows that the SEC slate will be tough sledding, so he’ll uncork his strong-armed QB
Mallet in an effort to get a much-needed win. At 3-0, if A&M is looking ahead to an inconference
battle with Oklahoma State next week, the Hogs could snort back to
Fayetteville with the road “W.” TEXAS A&M, 34-30.
*TENNESSEE over AUBURN by 3
Auburn leaves the comfortable surroundings of Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time,
so expect some inefficiencies from an offense that has been the model of efficiency. UT’s
defense has effectively had two weeks to prepare since the Kiffin vs. Meyer pre-school
yard fight (played Ohio last week). Vol coach Kiffin knows that his offense won’t score a
lot vs. SEC defenses, so he’ll again ask daddy to slow an offensive guru. Papa Kiffin has
the experience and the players to do just that. Tennessee ranks #11 nationally in tackles
for loss and it is their ability to get pressure up the field that will make life tough on
the Tiger offense. TENNESSEE, 23-20.
RECOMMENDED
SOUTHERN CAL over *CALIFORNIA by 14
After their annual conference loss to an unranked team, USC is one motivated bunch.
They had Washington State last week and basically held a practice for the final three
quarters. More importantly, they had two weeks to prepare for the Bears. Cal, on the
other hand, had to trip up to Eugene, OR for its annual battle with Oregon where they
got smoked. On the field, Trojan QB Barkley has proven he can win on the road, doing
so at Ohio State His offensive line is facing a stout Cal defensive front, but you won’t
find a better set of o-linemen in this country. Pete Carroll will have both his RBs and
WRs ready to make plays. Oregon showed us what happens when you take the Cal
run away. That is what Carroll will do – force QB Riley to beat him. Riley has proven
to be inconsistent and his WR corps – already down a starter – doesn’t have a bigtime
play-maker. SOUTHERN CAL, 31-17.
*TCU over SMU by 25
Being off a bye week, with revenge for a 48-7 loss last season in this Dallas-area rivalry,
will sound like good reasons for liking “road” dog SMU, now in the second season of
June Jones’ pass-happy system. With TCU off a road win at ACC Clemson, the pro-SMU
angles are mounting. But as every football coach will tell you, successful tackling is all
about taking the proper angle. TCU knows that if they mess this one up on their home
field, their BCS Bowl-crashing hopes will be shattered. Defenses as good as TCU’s normally
cannot be beaten without some offensive balance. TCU, 42-17.
BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO STATE over NEW MEXICO STATE by 28
If there is a week for SDSU coach Hoke to bring in high school recruits…this is it.
The Aztecs will be motivated to get their first D1 victory against a bad football team.
New Mexico State changed up all of their offensive and defensive systems this offseason
and the new coaching staff is feeling the growing pains. Joe Public just might
not see it because the Aggies are sitting at 2-2 on the season. SDSU has a very nice
passing attack and future NFL WR Brown could easily go for 150 yards and multiple
TDs against this Aggies defense. Speaking of defense, this Aztecs defensive unit is
light years ahead of last year’s. Plus, NMSU played Aztec defensive coordinator
Rocky Long’s former team (New Mexico) last week, so you know he’ll be dialing-up
“the 505” for “the 411.” SAN DIEGO STATE, 38-10.
HOUSTON over *UTEP by 11
On the surface, it’s two teams headed in different directions and an easy Houston win.
Houston got two wins against Big 12 opponents, most recently on their home field in the
final minute. UTEP got blown out by two Big 12 opponents. But now you wipe the slate
clean and grant legitimacy to the possibility of familiar C-USA foes having a battle as
contentious as last season’s 37-32 game. If Houston clobbers them easily, then maybe
UTEP is really as bad as they’ve looked. But it has to happen first. HOUSTON, 41-30.
*IOWA over ARKANSAS STATE by 18
Arkansas State played chicken and laid an egg at Nebraska, had a bye week to prime
for a circled revenge game against Troy, and lost a staredown. They figure to spend the
week looking at themselves in the mirror, and they definitely weren’t looking ahead to
Iowa when they were prepping for Troy. Iowa wasn’t looking ahead to Arkansas State
when they were preparing to knock off Penn State again, but the Hawkeyes now have a
national ranking to protect and/or pad while taking a drop in class. IOWA, 24-6.
RECOMMENDED
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC over WYOMING by 12
Wyoming just beat an opponent that has now lost 20 straight road games in
Mountain West play. Good for Wyoming, who obviously put a lot into that game. They
now they fly a long way the wrong way to play at sea level heat and humidity, against
Schnellenberger off a loss and your man Rusty “Big Play” Smith, whose opposite
number on Wyoming is a freshman making his second collegiate start, with tape now
available on him and the “Missouri” offense being operated by Wyoming players. The
UL-Monroe defense that sort of held FAU in check last week played a 3-3-5 defense.
Wyoming’s secondary is skilled, but there are only four of them and three of them
stand 5’11” or shorter, against taller receivers. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 31-19.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over *LOUISIANA-MONROE by 1
The Monrovian pass offense won’t win any awards, so FIU’s defense will improve upon
last week’s 41-point yield against a Toledo team with a good pass offense. The
Monrovian defense is a long-standing member of the 400 Yards Club, so FIU – puttering
along with a rushing average near in the 2.0 yards per carry range, should register its
best offensive performance of the season. They weren’t going to run against the
Alabama and Rutgers defenses, and they couldn’t run after falling behind Toledo 14-0
last Saturday. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 23-22.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
*TROY over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 8
Fourth road game out of the first five for Middle Tennessee, whose top running back
Philip Tanner missed last week’s win at North Texas, where they probably didn’t need
him against a pretty soft defensive front. Troy’s defense contains and makes key stops.
That’s why they are defending Sun Belt champs. They held Arkansas State’s Reggie
Arnold to 32 yards last Saturday and without Tanner, MTS can’t pound them enough to
offset what Troy’s back-to-back 500-yard-games offense can do when it has the ball.
TROY, 31-23.
Vol. 35, No. 5 WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2009
COLLEGE
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
*LOUISIANA TECH over HAWAII by 4
La. Tech has struggled against dynamic rushing attacks in losses to Auburn and Navy.
Hawaii doesn’t like to run. Bad news – Hawaii throws it well. The host Bulldogs have the
talent in the secondary to hang, but can they pressure the QB? Warriors’ QB Alexander
is up TO Hawaii’s familiar aerial tricks and has settled on a few go-to wide outs.
LOUISIANA TECH, 31-27.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1
*WEST VIRGINIA over COLORADO by 17
Any chance for WVU not being up for this non-conference game will be overtaken by the
facts that (a) this is prime time action; and (b) they lost to Colorado last year. Buffs o-line
has been shuffled more than a deck of cards and they aren’t playing well enough to support
a strong run game. That means mini-QB Hawkins will be asked to chuck it 30+
times. Not a good game plan against the Mountaineers 3-3-5 defense. WVU’s speed in
the backfield alone will stretch a slow defensive team well out of their comfort zone.
WEST VIRGINIA, 30-13.
SOUTHERN MISS over *UAB by 6
One of these teams lost 70-14 to the other last season. It wasn’t Southern Miss. If UAB
players have any guts, then they have already put the biggest, fattest circle you’ve ever
seen around this C-USA re-hook, then they show up and play hair-on-fire football on all
three units for 60 minutes to show these guys and the national audience that the talent
gap and last year’s scoreboard are two different things. UAB was –6 in turnovers in last
season’s loss. You’d like ‘em more if Southern Miss’ defense wasn’t playing so well
against the run so far. SOUTHERN MISS, 29-23.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2
PITTSBURGH over *LOUISVILLE by 8
Pitt's defensive philosophy is to shut down the run, force an opponent to pass, then bring
the rush. Louisville’s defensive philosophy? They don’t have one. The current and prior
head coaches were and are offensive guys, and the Cardinals are on their third defensive
coordinator in three years. Sometimes, a team’s best defense is having head coach
Dave Wannstedt on the opposite sideline, but you can’t always bank on wacky Wanny
allowing the other side to stay in the game, especially if Pitt forces as many turnovers
as a more experienced Louisville offense gave ’em last year. PITTSBURGH, 24-16.
*BYU over UTAH STATE by 21
These two have averaged 65 points per game in the last 10 battles for the “Beehive
Boot.” Most of the scoring has been done by the Cougars and that’ll be the case here.
Utah State is playing a lot more press man coverage this year meaning that BYU’s vet
QB Hall will be going mano v. mano with the Aggie corners. Advantage Hall. BYU, 38-17.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3
SOUTH FLORIDA over *SYRACUSE by 12
Saturday matinee horror movie for Syracuse quarterback Greg Paulus, watching wideeyed
in 3-D as NFL-bound DE George Selvie and the rest of the sack-hungry South
Florida front seven descend upon him on passing downs. After a September of vanilla
against non-conference Big Ten foes, Paulus will be stuffed into the popcorn popper, butter
and salt included. SOUTH FLORIDA, 21-9.
EAST CAROLINA over *MARSHALL by 3
The only thing stranger than Marshall covering two in a row is that the outfit formerly
and probably soon-to-be known as the Blundering Herd was highlighted as a selection
in the Midweek Update each time. Moving up in defensive class, their offense might need
more than just RB Darius Marshall to marshall it along to a third straight money-making
afternoon. ECU’s QB Pinckney is a lot more experienced than the Bass kid that Memphis
tried to bait Marshall’s defense with last Saturday. EAST CAROLINA, 20-17.
*PURDUE over NORTHWESTERN by 10
Do not be too interested by the 300 popgun passing yards of Northwestern QB Mike
Kafka. If Northwestern is rushing for only 2.2 yards per carry like they did against
Minnesota last Saturday, and only 1.9 yards per carry against Syracuse, like they did two
weeks ago, and only 3.9 yards per carry against Eastern Michigan, like they did three
weeks ago…well, you get the idea. All future opponents will pick up on that pretty quickly.
PURDUE, 30-20.
WISCONSIN over *MINNESOTA by 3
The Gophers’ transition from the spread to a more conventional offense has been met
with mixed reviews. Passing game – B+, with 221 yards per game. Running attack – D,
only 104 yards per contest. Stop the aerial attack, and you stop Minnesota. The strength
of Wisky’s defense is their secondary. Those defensive backs need only key on Gopher
WR Decker, who accounts for 59% of the team’s receiving yards. WISCONSIN, 27-24.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE over *WAKE FOREST by 3
Wake Forest’s offense rarely sees more than 10 yards downfield. NC State’s best defenders
play very close to the line of scrimmage. Deacon quarterback Riley Skinner will complete
a lot of passes, but he won’t make plays like Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson. Kid has
12 TD passes in the last three games and has the ability to extend drives with his feet.
NC STATE, 19-16.
CLEMSON over *MARYLAND by 14
Visiting Tigers play with revenge after a 20-17 loss as the #20 ranked team last year.
Clemson’s defense is more talented and experienced than Maryland’s offense and won’t
have much trouble holding the Terps down. With a bye next week and a realistic shot at
winning the ACC Atlantic for the first time, Dabo Sweeney’s Tigers will be ready to maul.
CLEMSON, 25-11.
*NORTH CAROLINA over VIRGINIA by 17
UNC has all of the pieces in place in coach Butch Davis’ 3rd year, whereas UVA is trying
to pick up the pieces after a 0-3 start. The bye week should help the Cavs, who got their
new passing game going two weeks ago. Too bad they’re playing a very stout defense
that will be out for blood after getting predictably elephant trampled by the Georgia Tech
triple option circus in Atlanta last week. UNC players said the loss to Tech – a game
where the Jackets owned the ball for 42 minutes – was “embarrassing.” That doesn’t
usually sit well with Butch Davis. NORTH CAROLINA, 27-10.
BEST BET
FLORIDA STATE over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 22
We’re going for the Best Bet Trifecta in Florida State games. BC is out-matched in
the athlete department, so they’ll have to go shopping in the “run the ball/play great
defense” aisle. Worked in the past, but the Eagle front seven is young and not yet
ready for prime time. The offensive line – thought to be the strength of the team –
mustered only 54 yards against Clemson two weeks ago. The ’Noles defense will just
be happy not to see fleet-footed USF backup QB Daniels under center. Don’t expect
much over 200 total yards for the home team. On offense, South Florida held FSU to
19 yards rushing and pressured QB Ponder all day. The Bulls have one of the best
defensive lines in the country…the Eagles do not. When motivated, Bowden’s bunch
plays well. Coming off a home butt-kicking at the hands of an in-state little brother
should fuel their fire. FLORIDA STATE, 31-9.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *BUFFALO by 14
It is still happening, people. Buffalo, the luckiest SOBs in the nation last season when
they recovered 26 of 39 opposing fumbles, lost four interceptions and one fumble themselves
in last week’s Recommended pick against them with Temple (and got only one
turnover back). This is how football tends to work. The mirrors were due back at the
Rent-All, but they forgot to return them and now Buffalo bandwagon backers are paying
a late fee through the nose. Central Michigan’s defense is a little too soft and nondynamic
for our taste but their offense generally moves the ball, hangs onto it, and
scores. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 34-20.
BEST BET
TOLEDO over *BALL STATE by 18
With the point-shavers gone, Toledo’s offense gets up and down the field pretty good
against defenses that aren’t among the nation’s strongest. Their shutout loss vs. Ohio
State isn’t looking too bad after the Buckeyes shut out Illinois last Saturday. To date,
there is a huge disparity in the teams’ respective Yards per Attempt passing this season.
Ball State is generating less than half of Toledo’s 9.0 yards per pass attempt.
Toledo’s experienced QB Aaron Opelt and some athletic mismatch receivers are playing
catch while Ball State’s newbie QB Kelly Page struggles after Ball State’s mass
graduations and defections left promoted head coach Stan “Empty” Parrish praying
for help.We’re not gonna be fooled by Ball State’s 30 points at Auburn last Saturday.
An offensive output of only 260 yards against Auburn vanilla defense doesn’t figure
to translate into enough points vs. a conference foe whose defense knows they want
to give the ball to RB MiQuayle Lewis a lot, then hope for the best. TOLEDO, 42-24.
RECOMMENDED
ALABAMA over *KENTUCKY by 8
[Kentucky, plus the points.] ’Bama coach Saban is the master of getting his kids to
play one game at a time. But if there is a letdown game, then at Kentucky -- in
between SEC West foes Arkansas and Ole Miss -- is the game. The Tide’s defense
alone can win this game against a very average Wildcat offense – but expect the UK
D to keep Alabama well below its average of 40 points per game. Coach Rich Brooks
will employ the ‘get a few first downs, wind the clock, play solid defense’ game plan.
A relatively weak Arkansas defense held Bama to just 3.3 yards per carry and only
two yards per carry after excluding a 52-yard TD scamper by Tide RB Trent
Richardson. Brooks’ defense will stand firm up front and will also make Bama’s
passing game beat ’em short – ‘cause Tide QB McElroy has hit a lot of big plays
downfield this season. ALABAMA, 24-16.
MISSISSIPPI over *VANDERBILT by 11
Rebels’ grey offense had ’em feeling blue after getting punked by South Carolina.
Houston Nutt must get his fellas on track, ’cause a home date with Alabama lingers next
week. Vandy’s defense will give Ole Miss a game for four quarters, but there are two
problems for the home team: (a) they don’t have as many future pros on their D as does
South Carolina; and (b) their offense won’t be able to control the clock. Difference in athletes
was apparent in Oxford last year, but the Rebels turned it over 6 times, including a
1st and goal fumble out of the end zone late in the game. Lady luck won’t be so cruel
this week. OLE MISS, 28-17.
CINCINNATI over *MIAMI-OH by 25
Being sandwiched between Fresno State and South Florida, off back-to-back strong
non-conference foes Oregon State and Fresno, might cause Cincinnati to take the
regional rivalry lightly. But Miami-OH, 1-8 ATS in their last nine games under two coaching
staffs, have had major problems scoring and holding onto the football for a while
now. Although QB Daniel (Augh!) Raudabaugh might continue to sit in favor of the latest
college quarterback named Zac, freshman Dysart pulled a Raudabaugh last Saturday,
“leading” the Redhawks to 500+ offensive yards…and a 10-point defeat littered with 5
turnovers. The position of QB at Miami-OH is a candidate for 12th Man of the Year, for
opposing teams. CINCINNATI, 45-20.
TEMPLE over *EASTERN MICHIGAN by 8
EMU played a “tough” non-conference slate and scored enough points to make people
take notice, but there will be no more vanilla defense played against them by opponents
who don’t know their personnel. Temple knows the personnel, and the Owls have one of
the best defenses in the MAC. They also know that Eastern’s defense hasn’t made a big
stop since Hector was a pup. TEMPLE, 24-16.
TULANE over *ARMY by 1
The low point in Toledo Bob’s Tulane tenure is debatable, but on the table for discussion
is the 44-13 home loss suffered against Army last season, when the Green Wave gained
486 offensive yards but lost by four touchdowns in large part to a –4 TO Ratio for the
afternoon. This included a pair of defensive TDs by Army, who also blocked a punt and a
field goal. Army will continue to more little things right than Tulane, but Tulane’s power
rating is deflated from playing machine-like offenes, which Army is not. If the visitors can
translate the yards into points this time around, Army might have to throw to win and
that wouldn’t be good, because Tulane rushes the passer well. TULANE, 28-27.
VIRGINIA TECH over *DUKE by 17
Good matchup for the Hokies here. Their secondary is top 20 nationally and the only way
Duke can move it is by air. V-Tech opened up the offense last week allowing QB Taylor
to run the football and their o-line shouldn’t have a problem moving Duke defenders.
Blue Devils should be able to move it some between the 20s, but points will be tough to
come by. Just ask Miami-FL. VIRGINIA TECH, 33-16.
*NOTRE DAME over WASHINGTON by 8
The Irish defense is vying for membership in the 400 Yards Club. Co-defensive might
want credit for only 200 yards allowed apiece on their resumes, but the bottom line
could be that since middling Big Ten offenses have been marching up and down the field
against Notre Dame, a middling Pac 10 offense with a solid, dual threat QB like Jake
Locker might as well do the same. Michael Floyd’s injury absence makes Golden Tate an
easier receiver for the Huskies to cover, and Jimmy Clausen easier to intercept. NOTRE
DAME, 38-30.
LSU over *GEORGIA by 1
Georgia linebacker Darryl Gamble returned two INTs for TDs against LSU last season, so
the 52 points allowed by LSU in the embarrassing home defeat was not all on their
defense. But that unit will go out and try to play with a vengeance anyway, while the
offense enjoys the difference between being led by Jordan Jefferson, instead of the giftgiving
Jarret “Pick Six” Lee. Georgia’s linebackers have been getting juggled around and
if the situation is still unsettled, LSU’s big running backs won’t mind unsettling them a
little more. Regular point-spread backers of either side since the beginning of last season
are pretty much tapped out. LSU, 24-23.
AIR FORCE over *NAVY by 1
Air Force loves to hold the football and through four games had run 302 offensive plays
to their opponents’ 228. Middies’ defense, especially their front seven, will surprise you
with their talent, so the fly boys may have some trouble owning the clock. That said, the
Falcons haven’t had a game where they ran it less than 58 times, which is a testament
to their offensive efficiency. After losing six straight to Navy, air finally conquers sea. AIR
FORCE, 23-22.
GEORGIA TECH over *MISSISSIPPI STATE by 11
Tech is gonna run that triple option until its’ perfected – meaning there is no change in
offensive game plan just because this is a non-conference tilt. Bulldogs gave up 8.1
yards per carry vs. Tech last year, when their defense was their strength. This year, firstyear
coach Mullen will sacrifice defense for offense, and since his squad couldn’t tackle
a dynamic Auburn running game, they figure to fare worse here. ACC squads play the
Jackets every year and have gone to school on defending Johnson’s offense. MSU is
done with Tech after this season and won’t put in a ton of extra time trying to de-code
the mystery. GEORGIA TECH, 34-23.
SUPER BEST BET
*MIAMI-FL over OKLAHOMA by 18
Were the Hurricanes going to sweep the nation’s most difficult opening schedule?
Probably not. Was a loss to Virginia Tech going to ruin their season? Probably not,
even though they are in the same division of the ACC. Did a driving rainstorm create
some early weirdness that put them in a hole they couldn’t recover from against a
defense as good as Virginia Tech’s in Blacksburg last Saturday? Probably. Did some
of the Hurricanes and then first-season coaches lose 51-13 at Oklahoma in Week 2
of the 2007 season? Definitely. Is Oklahoma still overrated because they made the
National Championship Game last season and run up some big scores against outclassed
opposition since losing to BYU on opening day? Probably. OU’s bye week to
prepare for the Hurricanes will be widely considered a check mark in the “advantage”
category. But there’s only so much advance you can do when the other team’s
offense has as many playmakers as the Hurricanes have, and when the other team’s
defense is quick enough to rattle your young visiting quarterback. MIAMI-FL, 31-13.
PENN STATE over *ILLINOIS by 3
The Penn State offense is still transitioning from the loss of three first team Big 12 offensive
linemen and their top three WRs from 2008. You saw the effects vs. Iowa. Home
team offense doesn’t have the same excuse, but the results to date have been pathetic.
Perhaps PSU’s youthful secondary will give Illini QB Williams some space to find his talented
receivers, but “perhaps” isn’t what we back here. PENN STATE, 24-21.
MICHIGAN over *MICHIGAN STATE by 6
In the middle of last week prior to squeaking past Indiana, when Rich Rodriguez said
he’d like his Michigan team to be good enough to play poorly and still win, the
Coachspeak to English dictionary translated it to: “We’re pointing to Michigan State.”
Michigan leaves home for the first time this season, but it’s becoming obvious that
Michigan State’s best defensive player was running back Javon Ringer – because he
carried the ball 40 times, was hard to bring down, ate clock, and kept that unit off the
field. MICHIGAN, 26-20.
*NORTHERN ILLINOIS over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 8
Host NIU got sandwiched by Idaho’s balanced offense last Saturday, in between their win
at Big Ten Purdue, and this MAC opener.Western Michgan’s offense is not balanced. It’s
too much of overrated Tim Hiller’s short passes. When you know what’s coming and
you’ve been waiting for it, it’s easier to stop. It’s also easier to coach a team up to a big
game when it’s coming off a loss. Northern Illinois was forced to use three quarterbacks
in last year’s meeting, but still gained 400+ yards and lost by only 3 points. NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, 28-20.
OHIO over *BOWLING GREEN by 1
Matched against a familiar, pass-happy offensive foe at their own level, the Ohio defense
should be in their element. They’ve looked okay before and still failed to get the job done
for their backers, but if Theo Scott continues to play quarterback for them in place of betkiller
Boo Jackson, they might change their profile and start making a run at the MAC
East title in a race that begins right here. Their defense played well enough in last season’s
28-3 home loss, but Jackson was 6-for-16 with two INTs. Boo! OHIO, 24-23.
*NEVADA over UNLV by 3
Vegas rush D must hold strong for an upset shot. They gave up 444 yards on the ground
to Nevada last year, but that was after they had mailed the season in. A more experienced
and motivated defense hasn’t allowed any team over 200 yards on the ground this
year. The pass D is much more suspect, but Nevada QB Kaepernick lost most of last
year’s WR production to graduation and the new crew hasn’t produced. UNLV QB Clayton
will put up numbers and make this interesting. NEVADA, 30-27.
COLORADO STATE over *IDAHO by 8
Quote from the Dos Equis guy, “Idaho doesn’t always play winnable games, but when
they do, they prefer to throw the kitchen sink at you.” CSU will get a big-time battle from
the 3-1 Vandals that have dreams of hitting that 6-win bowl-eligible nirvana. Trouble for
the Vandals is that their talent level isn’t there, especially on the defensive front seven.
Rams should have a field day with their tailbacks running behind the most experienced
offensive line in the nation. COLORADO STATE, 35-27.
*IOWA STATE over KANSAS STATE by 6
Both teams are transitioning through coaching changes and have struggled as a result.
ISU may get through it quicker as they have a huge offensive line and some talent in the
backfield. Their coach, Rhoads, is also a defense guy and that side of the ball tends to
“get there” before the offense. IOWA STATE, 26-20.
*ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE by 5
In the last three meetings, ASU has won only once ’cause they could not protect the QB.
Oregon State had 13 sacks in those meetings, but those were three seasons when the
Beavers averaged 42 sacks per year. OSU is on pace to nab only 6 – yes 6 – sacks this
year. Sun Devils QB Sullivan hit only 10-of-32 at Georgia last week, but that was in a
monsoon on the road. The desert sun and home field comforts will allow him to take
advantage of a young secondary this week. ARIZONA STATE, 26-21.
*OREGON over WASHINGTON STATE by 27
WSU’s poor rush defense will provide an additional turbo boost to Oregon’s offensive
engine that finally got outta first gear last week. The Cougars lack defensive speed and
their front seven couldn’t stop a parked car. The Ducks could give up some points after
being so jacked up for the Cal game, but they’ll be scoring until the final horn with backup
players so any defensive letdown won’t impact the outcome. OREGON, 45-28.
BEST BET
*BAYLOR over KENT STATE by 34
The Bears have already scored 21 and 22 points against very competent ACC and
Big East defenses, and Kent’s stop guys probably don’t have enough resistance to
get off the field until Baylor’s decent offensive balance crosses the goal line. Kent’s
offense doesn’t have enough weapons to control the game clock like UConn did (for
40 minutes, with help from Baylor turnovers). In its first game up in conference without
“the offense” known as tailback Eugene Jarvis (out for the season with an injury),
Kent got beat by 34-7 by what appears to be a less than stellar Boston College team.
Three of their offensive drives stalled for field goals vs. Miami-OH last Saturday, and
they didn’t get to 300 yards of offense despite being +5 in turnovers. Baylor QB
Robert Griffin has a sore knee, on which he led four scoring drives before halftime
last Saturday before watching the back-ups get three more in the second half. BAYLOR,
44-10.
*CENTRAL FLORIDA over MEMPHIS by 5
The quarterback change to Bass couldn’t bait us (see Midweek Update winner on
Marshall vs. Memphis). Memphis is now forced to take its sloppy act on the road into
another of the best of the C-USA defenses. Tommy West was hoping that some big-conference
transfers would help move ‘em on up this season but so far, no good for
Memphis. It’s still early, but the O’Learys are a little more fundamentally sound despite
having an offense that nobody would be proud of. The other two units will be very happy
to pounce on every little Memphis mistake. CENTRAL FLORIDA, 24-19.
UCLA over *STANFORD by 1
Bruins hold the athletic advantage on both sides of the ball, but Kevin Craft is at QB and
his spotty play neutralizes his own team’s edge on offense. Where UCLA wins this is with
their run defense. Stanford loves to hand off to bruising TB Gerhart, who is highly effective
when his o-line gets a push. Bruins excel at getting penetration in the backfield and
Gerhart isn’t a juke & jive type back. UCLA, 21-20.
*TEXAS TECH over NEW MEXICO by 32
Lobos’ new spread offense will ensure that Tech gets their hands on the ball a bunch.
Not a good thing, especially when your two best defensive players from 2008 were cornerbacks
who are now playing on Sunday. Red Raiders’ coach Leach doesn’t care if he’s
playing Texas or the local flag football team; he loves to showcase his offense. Coming
off two losses, there is also a swagger attitude to restore. TEXAS TECH, 52-20.
OHIO STATE over *INDIANA by 16
Hoosiers had Michigan in the bag last week, but let them slither out. If they’re still thinking
about that loss, Ohio State will knock them into next week. IU won’t come close to
the 467 total yards that they racked up vs. Michigan, but their defense line is talented
and should keep a vanilla offense from getting too colorful. After OSU put up 30 points
on Illinois last week and the Michigan-Indiana game hit a 69-point total, totals players
can slip in UNDER cover here. OHIO STATE, 28-12.
TULSA over *RICE by 17
Vanderbilt ran the ball 43 times for 216 yards, scored four rushing touchdowns and beat
Rice 36-17 Saturday night in Houston. You can pretty much use last Saturday’s recap to
forecast this Saturday’s result. Just substitute “Tulsa” for “Vanderbilt,” and give Rice a
little credit for the defensive class drop being taken. TULSA, 41-24.
*TEXAS A&M over ARKANSAS by 4
You’re in for a good ’ol fashioned shoot out that would make John Wayne proud. A&M
QB Johnson will be cleaning his gun this week after watching the Arkansas secondary
give up 7 TD passes of 21+ yards in the last two weeks. At 1-2, Arkansas coach Petrino
knows that the SEC slate will be tough sledding, so he’ll uncork his strong-armed QB
Mallet in an effort to get a much-needed win. At 3-0, if A&M is looking ahead to an inconference
battle with Oklahoma State next week, the Hogs could snort back to
Fayetteville with the road “W.” TEXAS A&M, 34-30.
*TENNESSEE over AUBURN by 3
Auburn leaves the comfortable surroundings of Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time,
so expect some inefficiencies from an offense that has been the model of efficiency. UT’s
defense has effectively had two weeks to prepare since the Kiffin vs. Meyer pre-school
yard fight (played Ohio last week). Vol coach Kiffin knows that his offense won’t score a
lot vs. SEC defenses, so he’ll again ask daddy to slow an offensive guru. Papa Kiffin has
the experience and the players to do just that. Tennessee ranks #11 nationally in tackles
for loss and it is their ability to get pressure up the field that will make life tough on
the Tiger offense. TENNESSEE, 23-20.
RECOMMENDED
SOUTHERN CAL over *CALIFORNIA by 14
After their annual conference loss to an unranked team, USC is one motivated bunch.
They had Washington State last week and basically held a practice for the final three
quarters. More importantly, they had two weeks to prepare for the Bears. Cal, on the
other hand, had to trip up to Eugene, OR for its annual battle with Oregon where they
got smoked. On the field, Trojan QB Barkley has proven he can win on the road, doing
so at Ohio State His offensive line is facing a stout Cal defensive front, but you won’t
find a better set of o-linemen in this country. Pete Carroll will have both his RBs and
WRs ready to make plays. Oregon showed us what happens when you take the Cal
run away. That is what Carroll will do – force QB Riley to beat him. Riley has proven
to be inconsistent and his WR corps – already down a starter – doesn’t have a bigtime
play-maker. SOUTHERN CAL, 31-17.
*TCU over SMU by 25
Being off a bye week, with revenge for a 48-7 loss last season in this Dallas-area rivalry,
will sound like good reasons for liking “road” dog SMU, now in the second season of
June Jones’ pass-happy system. With TCU off a road win at ACC Clemson, the pro-SMU
angles are mounting. But as every football coach will tell you, successful tackling is all
about taking the proper angle. TCU knows that if they mess this one up on their home
field, their BCS Bowl-crashing hopes will be shattered. Defenses as good as TCU’s normally
cannot be beaten without some offensive balance. TCU, 42-17.
BEST BET
*SAN DIEGO STATE over NEW MEXICO STATE by 28
If there is a week for SDSU coach Hoke to bring in high school recruits…this is it.
The Aztecs will be motivated to get their first D1 victory against a bad football team.
New Mexico State changed up all of their offensive and defensive systems this offseason
and the new coaching staff is feeling the growing pains. Joe Public just might
not see it because the Aggies are sitting at 2-2 on the season. SDSU has a very nice
passing attack and future NFL WR Brown could easily go for 150 yards and multiple
TDs against this Aggies defense. Speaking of defense, this Aztecs defensive unit is
light years ahead of last year’s. Plus, NMSU played Aztec defensive coordinator
Rocky Long’s former team (New Mexico) last week, so you know he’ll be dialing-up
“the 505” for “the 411.” SAN DIEGO STATE, 38-10.
HOUSTON over *UTEP by 11
On the surface, it’s two teams headed in different directions and an easy Houston win.
Houston got two wins against Big 12 opponents, most recently on their home field in the
final minute. UTEP got blown out by two Big 12 opponents. But now you wipe the slate
clean and grant legitimacy to the possibility of familiar C-USA foes having a battle as
contentious as last season’s 37-32 game. If Houston clobbers them easily, then maybe
UTEP is really as bad as they’ve looked. But it has to happen first. HOUSTON, 41-30.
*IOWA over ARKANSAS STATE by 18
Arkansas State played chicken and laid an egg at Nebraska, had a bye week to prime
for a circled revenge game against Troy, and lost a staredown. They figure to spend the
week looking at themselves in the mirror, and they definitely weren’t looking ahead to
Iowa when they were prepping for Troy. Iowa wasn’t looking ahead to Arkansas State
when they were preparing to knock off Penn State again, but the Hawkeyes now have a
national ranking to protect and/or pad while taking a drop in class. IOWA, 24-6.
RECOMMENDED
*FLORIDA ATLANTIC over WYOMING by 12
Wyoming just beat an opponent that has now lost 20 straight road games in
Mountain West play. Good for Wyoming, who obviously put a lot into that game. They
now they fly a long way the wrong way to play at sea level heat and humidity, against
Schnellenberger off a loss and your man Rusty “Big Play” Smith, whose opposite
number on Wyoming is a freshman making his second collegiate start, with tape now
available on him and the “Missouri” offense being operated by Wyoming players. The
UL-Monroe defense that sort of held FAU in check last week played a 3-3-5 defense.
Wyoming’s secondary is skilled, but there are only four of them and three of them
stand 5’11” or shorter, against taller receivers. FLORIDA ATLANTIC, 31-19.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over *LOUISIANA-MONROE by 1
The Monrovian pass offense won’t win any awards, so FIU’s defense will improve upon
last week’s 41-point yield against a Toledo team with a good pass offense. The
Monrovian defense is a long-standing member of the 400 Yards Club, so FIU – puttering
along with a rushing average near in the 2.0 yards per carry range, should register its
best offensive performance of the season. They weren’t going to run against the
Alabama and Rutgers defenses, and they couldn’t run after falling behind Toledo 14-0
last Saturday. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 23-22.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
*TROY over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 8
Fourth road game out of the first five for Middle Tennessee, whose top running back
Philip Tanner missed last week’s win at North Texas, where they probably didn’t need
him against a pretty soft defensive front. Troy’s defense contains and makes key stops.
That’s why they are defending Sun Belt champs. They held Arkansas State’s Reggie
Arnold to 32 yards last Saturday and without Tanner, MTS can’t pound them enough to
offset what Troy’s back-to-back 500-yard-games offense can do when it has the ball.
TROY, 31-23.
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 10 Issue 6 October 2nd-6th, 2009 •
College Football
Saturday, October 3rd, 2009
@Syracuse (+7) over South Florida
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It looked bad for South Florida when Matt Grothe went
down with an injury and was lost for the season. And
that’s likely the only thing you’d heard about South Florida
until Saturday (an opening schedule of Wofford, Western
Kentucky, and Charleston Southern does a lot to keep
things under wraps). But redshirt freshman QB BJ Daniels
returned to his hometown of Tallahassee and helped the
Bulls to a victory over a wildly inconsistent Florida State
team. FSU is lost (Bobby Bowden’s press conferences just
keep getting more and more “crazy old grandpa”) and
helped to hand USF the game in numerous ways. Not only
did the Seminoles lose four fumbles, but they permitted
the Bulls rookie replacement to complete two passes of
longer than 70 yards. Matt Grothe had only one of those
in his entire career. But the Seminoles caught up to Daniels
in the second half, holding him to 4-12 for 49 yards and a
pair of INT’s, and Daniels cramped up repeatedly in the
second half, indicating he may not be in game shape.
USF had some huge emotional edges in that game. A
fallen teammate that died in a workout a couple of years
ago was a Tallahassee native and they dedicated the game
to him, to another fallen teammate, and to Grothe as well.
But those kind of gestures were hardly needed, as USF
played with an enormous chip on their shoulder in an effort
to give the program their first win over one of the Sunshine
State’s “Big 3” of Miami, Florida, and FSU. There are very
few players on the Bulls roster who would not be
Seminoles had they been offered, and that provided them
with a huge emotional advantage over FSU, who crashed
after their beatdown of BYU.
Now the Bulls face a similar quandary to what benefited
them against the Seminoles. Off of that hugely emotional
win, the win that they wanted the most this season, how
can they get up for a Syracuse team that they’ve beaten by
17 or more in all of their four years in the Big East? They
can’t. And importantly, this is a different kind of Syracuse
team. The Orangemen were lost sheep under the horribly
overmatched Greg Robinson over those four years, getting
outgained by 3.7 miles against 1-A opposition. But this is
obviously a different Syracuse team. Losing to Minnesota
in overtime, a respectable loss at Penn State (whose
players and coaches spoke glowingly of SU’s improvement
after the game) and a thrilling comeback win over
Northwestern preceded a game against 1-AA Maine that
set up perfectly for Syracuse. The flat Orangemen trailed
at the half before some halftime encouragement from
intense first year head coach Doug Marrone spurred them
to score on their first four drives of the second half. And
Syracuse is not without weapons. WR Mike Williams, back
from a year in academic purgatory, is a big reason why
Greg Paulus is on track to become the leading singleseason
yardage passer in Syracuse history. The defense
is much improved, and this team has played their guts out
with the exception of the first half on Saturday. Home field
advantage has returned to the Carrier Dome, a place that
can be a tough place to play for an inexperienced QB. USF
is the better team, but Syracuse brings enough to the table
to be right in this one. Syracuse by 1.
Florida St (- 5) over @Boston College
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Florida St’s season has been up and down so far,
and they’ve only played one complete game when
they waxed BYU 54-28. Last week, little brother
South Florida upset them at home as 14-point
underdogs. But that loss was not one of those
major upsets that was impossible. South Florida’s
program has been really good for the past three
years; they were ranked # 2 in the country at one
point in 2007. They caught Florida St at the perfect
time as the Seminoles were off a long trip and
perfect game in Provo, and the Seminoles knew that
South Florida’s starting quarterback Matt Grothe tore
his ACL and he wouldn’t play. When an opposing
team loses their best player, especially when he’s
the quarterback, the favorite usually takes them
lightly. And that’s exactly what we saw from Florida
St early in the game as the Bulls were up 14-0 at
the half. But let’s draw a line through that result
because history tells us that Florida St will bounce
back with a big win on Saturday.
With players coming and going, it’s obvious that a
coach’s system or more importantly, the way he
prepares his team for certain games does not
change. And for the past 34 years, Bobby Bowden’s
teams have consistently played well in their next
game after a loss. When his teams come off a
straight-up loss, they are 44-24 against the spread
(64.7%) which includes a perfect 4-0 in this role in
2008. This speaks volumes as to his ability to get
his kids to regroup and refocus during that week’s
practice, and we’ll look for Florida St to put last
week behind them and get a solid win in Chestnut
Hill.
Boston College enters off an overtime win against
Wake Forest. BC led that game 24-10 midway
through the 4th quarter, but their defense, and more
specifically their secondary, couldn’t stop the pass. The
Eagles allowed Wake QB Riley Skinner to complete 25-of-
35 passes for a career-high 354 yards. And they’ll have
their hands full again this week as Florida St’s Christian
Ponder has been real good this season completing 66.2%
of his passes for over 1,000 yards. The Seminoles have
been weak on the offensive line (5 sacks allowed last
week), but the BC defense only has 3 total sacks in 4
games. On defense, Florida St’s secondary is allowing over
10 yards per pass attempt, but again, they won’t be
challenged by a strong BC passing game. True-freshman
Dave Shinskie has taken over the starting job, but he’s in
for a rough afternoon against the speed and athleticism
he’ll see from Florida St. Last week, Shinskie faced a Wake
Forest defense that has nowhere near the speed and talent
of the Seminoles. It’s a big step-up in class for a freshman
making his second career start, especially facing a team off
a loss that also has revenge for a 27-17 home loss to
Boston College last year. Florida St by 13.
@Georgia (-2½) over LSU
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
I have to admit the 2009 Bulldog offense has me
scratching my head a little bit. After losing QB Matt
Stafford as #1 pick in the NFL draft it would be
normal to expect some dropoff. Yet after four games
against quality opponents - two on the road -
Georgia is averaging better than 30 points per
game. While Stafford's career numbers were ok at
Georgia, an ESPN study of 31 QBs drafted in the first
round since 1997 put him in the "bust" category,
ranked between flops Akili Smith and Cade McNown.
That posed the dilemma - would 2009 see a big
offensive decline because Stafford was an elite QB,
or a small decline if any because Stafford was
overrated?
The early indication may be that Stafford was
overrated. The Bulldogs aren't averaging more than
30 points per game because of their running game.
The ground attack is averaging under 3.67 yards per
carry, and fifth-year senior Joe Cox is compiling
numbers that look a lot like Stafford's 2008
performance. Last year Stafford completed 61.4% of
his throws for a little over 9 yards per attempt. Thus
far Cox is completing 60.4% of his attempts and
averaging 9 yards per toss.
My general tech is a tad thinner than what I usually
provide in this space. Elite teams like #4 ranked LSU
are often irresistible to square bettors when installed
as an underdog. In fact, ranked underdogs are a
little under 50% ATS when facing a lower ranked
favorite. The Tigers fall into a more selective 15-32
ATS spot based on this idea. Off a pair of wins over
winning opponents I have the Bulldogs in a 23-5
ATS momentum play with an average cover margin
just over 10 points per game. The best big sample
tech is a 217-136 ATS bounceback spot on Georgia
triggered by their ATS loss (23-17 win priced at -
11.5) last weekend to Arizona State. This play is 3-1
in 2009 including a win on Virginia Tech over Miami
on Saturday.
With four games under the belts of both teams my
stat model's ratings can now be trusted. While LSU
has been outscoring their early opponents by nearly
two touchdowns per game, after compensating for
scheduling the Bulldogs rate better than a
touchdown fave no matter the category: run only,
pass only, and overall yards per play.
Joe Cox may not have his predecessor's pedigree,
but his performance so far against a schedule of
opponents much tougher than his LSU counterpart
has faced is enough for me. I'm aware of Georgia's
poor ATS mark at home in recent years - just 8-17
since 2005, but the general tech is stronger than
this. Lay it. Georgia by 10.
@Miami FL (+7) over Oklahoma
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This line looks as if it is priced in that Sam Bradford
is playing, and while we will expect to take a couple
less points if he does not get clearance from the
doctor, we will be on the Canes either way. Miami
was a media darling two weeks into the season, but
ran into the “perfect storm”, both literally and
figuratively, as they were pummeled into the wet
Blacksburg ground Saturday afternoon. They had
three very suspect calls all go against them in the
first eight minutes of the game, and things simply
snowballed from there. Virginia Tech scored first
half touchdowns on a drive of 12 yards that was
kept alive by a questionable 3rd down pass
interference in the end zone, and also on a 1 yd
blocked punt return. The elements were against
any team trying to come from behind on that day,
and Canes QB Jacorry Harris did not get to show his
stuff, while also being hampered by several key
second half drops. The Miami front seven was a
little thin due to injury and wore down in the 4th
quarter as Tech widened the margin. We’ll have to
check the Canes’ injury report on the defensive side
of the ball, but they could be a little deeper up front
this week against the Sooners.
Basically UM get caught reading their own press
clippings a bit too much, and walked into a buzzsaw
in Blacksburg. They were off of two huge revenge
wins to start the season, came in a bit fat and
happy, and could not adjust to the role of the
“hunted”, as the Hokies’ got revenge of their own.
They are still an extremely talented young team,
and with the combination of QB Harris, several
future NFL receivers, and new OC Mark Whipple,
this is a lot of firepower to be taking points at home
with. They are chomping at the bit to prove that
they are not a fluke, and this could be the game that
officially puts them back on the map.
We’ll acknowledge a coaching edge for the Sooners,
and Stoops does have an extra week to prepare off
of the bye. They beat up on Miami two years ago in
Norman, but that was Randy Shannon’s second
game as HC, and the talent level was nowhere near
what it is now at UM (only 1 Cane drafted last year,
none on the first day, only 3 in 2008). Oklahoma is
a Top 10 program anyway you slice it, but like many
other Big 12 teams, they have been exposed against
other elite teams the last few years. They have lost
5 of their last 6 bowl games both SU and ATS with
some ugly losses in that group. Now Miami has not
proven to be elite just yet, but outside of perhaps
Ohio St. vs. USC earlier this season, this is the most
talent you will take points at home with this season.
USC barely won that affair, and Oklahoma has
proven time and time again that no matter how
strong they look in conference, they aren’t USC.
Canes take this to the wire. OU by only 1 with
Bradford, UM by 3 without Bradford
Arkansas (pk) over Texas A&M
@JerryWorld, Arlington, TX
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Texas A&M is an improved team, but they’ve been
so bad the past couple of years it’d be hard for them
not to be. They are 3-0, but is there a BCS
conference team that wouldn’t be 3-0 with an
opening schedule of New Mexico, bye week, Utah
State, and UAB? The only 1-A win that that troika
has is UAB’s victory over 0-4 Rice. Now the Aggies
leave College Station for the first time this season,
going to play in Jerry Jones’ new playground in
Arlington (perhaps you’ve heard about it?)
Importantly, while Texas A&M is feeling good about
their 3-0 start, Arkansas is playing with tremendous
need. This is the best chance for a win for a Hogs
team whose improvement will be masked by the fact
that they entered this game off of losses to Georgia
and Alabama and follow it with games against
Auburn, Florida, and Ole’ Miss. This contest may be
their best chance to keep from pulling a donut
between their opener against Missouri State and a
Halloween home date with Eastern Michigan. While
the defense has proven lacking, the numbers given
up against Georgia and Alabama may not be so bad
in retrospect after we see what those clubs do to
some other teams.
Scouts are drooling over Ryan Mallett and the Hogs
should be able to run the ball some as well, as
A&M’s defense has been shaky at best. A&M stifled
New Mexico in their opener (who wouldn’t?) and
then things got tougher for the D. The Aggies
allowed Utah State to gain 521 yards of total offense
two weeks ago and this past Saturday permitted
UAB to run for 227 yards on 35 carries. One thing
A&M has done well thus far is pressure the QB, and
they have 14 sacks in their three games so far, but
the Petrino brothers are fine offensive designers and
should do some damage here. Jerrod Johnson of
Texas A&M frustrated coaches with is decisions in
preseason practice but has played well thus far, and
A&M should be able to trade points for a good
portion of this ballgame.
Again, we return to the scheduling and the need.
Not that A&M would overlook this game, but they’re
3-0 and next week they have their conference
opener vs. Oklahoma State, who beat them 56-28
last season. With a 1-2 start and a tremendous
gauntlet of a schedule upcoming, Arkansas needs
this badly. “We’ve got to win the game, no doubt,”
Hogs coach Bobby Petrino said on Sunday. Petrino
also pushed his players’ buttons by talking how he
felt they didn’t believe they could actually win at
Alabama on Saturday. Look for a peak performance
from Arkansas against an A&M club that may bring
less to the table than is thought. Bobby Petrino vs.
Mike Sherman? Sounds good to us. Arkansas by
7.
NFL
Sunday, October 4th, 2009
Titans (-3) over @Jacksonville
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Yes, I'm as surprised as you are too. I'm
recommending an 0-3 road favorite. They are pretty
rare. This is just the 57th such occasion since 1983.
And no, they are not the money burners you'd
expect. Winless road faves are 29-24-3 ATS. And if
they showed some life by losing their previous game
by 7 or fewer points the mark is 16-9 ATS.
Do defensive coordinators matter? I much prefer to
follow offensive coordinators. At both the pro and
college levels there is simply more variability on the
offensive side, both in performance and scheme. But
in Tennessee there has been a change that merits
some attention. Former Titans DC Jim Schwartz left
in the offseason to take the head job in Detroit, and
longtime defensive assistant Chuck Cecil got the
coordinator's job.
So far it has been a rocky start under Cecil. His work
the last five seasons as a secondary coach looked
very good. Tennessee sent a pair of safeties to the
Pro Bowl last year, and the Titans had the #2
defense in the league while allowing just over 14
points per game. This year in their three losses they
have allowed 71 points, good for the #24 ranking.
Most surprising is the poor pass defense, allowing a
net 6.9 yards per attempt. It’s too early to tell
though if this is a long term problem. Cecil seems to
have called for looser coverages and more zone,
which allows for better run support. And that has
worked. The Titans are allowing just 2.2 yards per
carry, tops in the the league. Cecil just may need to
find a balance between defending the run and pass.
This is one of the stronger technical games the NFL
will provide this season. First up is a 110-66 ATS
"flip-flop" system on Tennessee. Basically we're looking to
play certain teams that are worse this year than last. The
Titans certainly qualify, having finished the 2008 regular
season at 13-3 and stand today at 0-3. This system is one
of the most reliable in my database. Out of sample since
2003 it is 34-16 ATS including 1-0 so far this year.
Next up is a 78-38 ATS system based on the Titan's
occupancy of the cellar position in the AFC South. This
system is 23-15 ATS out of sample since 2002.
This game has considerable urgency for the visitors. On
deck is a game against the red hot Colts with a 3-0 mark.
If Tennessee doesn't win this game the losing skid could
easily reach four in a row. That urgency sparks a 51-21
ATS "lookahead" play with a healthy average cover margin
of +5.5 points per game. And finally, off their 31-24 win
over the Texas the Jags are in a negative 56-103 ATS
letdown situation that has netted just 30% winners out of
sample. Tennessee by 9.
Ravens (+2½) over @Patriots
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
No surprise that the Pats took care of business
against the Falcons on Sunday. Not only were they
off a loss to the Jets, but they were being openly
questioned by a Boston media that is usually
respectful of the franchise’s place in the universe.
So the Pats wiped out a Falcons team with
significant issues in the secondary, who strangely
decided not to pressure Tom Brady. Brady has not
looked comfortable when pressured against the Bills
and the Jets, but he looked comfortable against the
Falcons mediocre defense. The TD drives he led
Sunday were the only ones other than the two that
resulted in the comeback win over the Bills on the
opening Monday night of the season. The offensive
line doesn’t handle pressure well, first figured out by
the Giants in the Super Bowl a couple of years back.
You can be sure that the pressure will be unleashed
on Sunday. The Ravens may not still have Rex
Ryan as their defensive coordinator, but they still
have his philosophies. And you know that he’ll be
exchanging notes with his former coworkers on the
Baltimore staff as they try to beat his new division
nemesis. This is a rare instance where you can’t
expect a team to be outcoached by Belichick.
Remember how well this defense played when they
almost (should’ve) beaten the undefeated Pats on
that Monday night back in 2007?
The Ravens have much better personnel now than
they did back then. Terrell Suggs was off to a bit of
a slow start but healthy, he had a huge game
Sunday. With Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, the Ravens
have young pass/run skill people that are the envy
of the league. One reason that the Ravens are so
effective offensively despite all their youth is the job
Cam Cameron’s doing as offensive coordinator for
the Ravens. He’s top notch and you may have
heard that the Pats are reasonably well coached as
well. New England’s defense stepped up on Sunday
but all the old playmakers are gone, and the young
replacements may not be up to snuff for a test like
this, especially when LB Javon Ringer, one of the
games finest young defenders, remains out of the
lineup.
The Ravens dominated a pair of outmanned teams
at home and in between that were outplayed at San
Diego. But despite their mediocre performance
against the Chargers they stepped up and beat the
Bolts. That’s the sign of a good team. Wouldn’t
argue with those who think that the Ravens are the
league’s best. No surprise if the Ravens get
pressure against a offensive line that isn’t what it
once was. Ravens step up here against a Patriots
team that has been up and down at best, and lacks
experienced defensive playmakers to come up big in
an important game such as this. Ravens by 4.
@San Francisco -10 over St. Louis
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Don’t lay too much big chalk, especially in this
league, but when I do I want a team that is
clearly better in all 3 aspects of the game.
That’s what we have here, as San Fran was a
Brett Favre miracle away from a 3-0 start,
while St. Louis is the league’s worst team
according to my early season power ratings.
The hapless Rams, despite having not played a
team with a winning record thus far, are
bottom 8 in the league in both offensive and
defensive yards per play. They have scored 24
points on the season, and it is very hard to find any
positives. Steven Jackson went for 117 on the
ground last week, but St. Louis was behind the
whole game and Green Bay basically conceded the
run. Their leading receiver Laurent Robinson was
lost for the season in that game, and now it appears
that Marc Bulger will miss this one with a shoulder
injury. Bulger is closer to mediocre than he is above
average, but you can do a lot worse than him in this
league, and his backup is Kyle Boller, who would
definitely help our cause. It’s a mess right now in
St. Louis, and I expect the Rams to remain right
there with Tampa as the league’s worst teams this
season.
In the NFL there is always the threat of not taking a
team like St. Louis seriously, but the fact that the
49ers come into this one off of a loss should have
them focused. Mike Singletary doesn’t seem at all
like a coach that will let his team coast into this
game, and let’s face it, Frisco has been down long
enough (0 winning seasons in 6 years) to not take
anything for granted. Frank Gore will not play here,
but the 49ers passing game is improved with the
long-awaited emergence of Vernon Davis (97 yards
and 2 TDs against the Vikings), and the continued
development of QB Shaun Hill and 2nd year WR Josh
Morgan from Virginia Tech. I also expect Gore’s
backup, Glen Coffee, to find Rams’ 150.7 yard per
game run defense a lot more permissive than the
Vikings’ stalwart defensive front. The 49ers defense
was top 10 last season in yards per play, and they
rank 6th thus far in ’09. They should shut down a
Rams offense no matter who the QB is, as he will be
playing behind the league’s worst offensive line and
throwing to an unimposing group of wideouts.
Gore is a big loss, but this is more a play against the
floundering Rams than it is on the 49ers. St. Louis
simply does not have the weapons for a comeback
should they fall behind, as Bulger will be limited if he
plays, and scatter-armed Kyle Boller is always a
threat to do something very dumb in his own end.
Niners bounce back big after the loss. 49ers by 17
@Broncos (+3) over Cowboys
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Broncos have not had the toughest road to 3-0.
Their offense was awful against the Bengals and the
deflected full-field pass in the final seconds won the
game. Then they took on the Browns at home and
the Raiders on the road, and while neither of those
teams are any good, they took ‘em both out. Josh
McDaniel was a complete idiot all summer long,
right? Well the conventional wisdom is being turned
on its head a little bit. Even against the bad Raiders
there was a lot to be impressed by. Yardage was
372-137. The famous Broncos running game is alive
and well. Cornell Buckhalter ran for 108 yards on
only 14 carries. Rookie Knowshon Moreno added
90 yards on 4.37 yards per carry. So there’s a
combination of good fortune, good scheduling, and
solid play leading to the 3-0 start. Ordinarily we
might look to play against such a team if they were
laying some points into a team that needed a win.
But they aren’t laying any points at all in this one.
And they are taking on an opponent that will
certainly capture their attention. It will capture the
attention of the fans as well. Denver doesn’t enjoy
the home field edge they once did (who in a new
stadium really does), but they’ll be fired up for the
mighty Cowboys.
The Cowboys are simply terminally overrated, gathering
more media attention than anyone in football despite not
winning a playoff game since after the 1996 season (so
long ago that in that victory over the Vikings Amp Lee was
Minnesota’s leading rusher and Herschel Walker carried 8
times for Dallas). For the second consecutive week their
new stadium has been national news from being featured
on one of the feature national broadcasts. The Cowboys
just get tons of love, and they simply do not deserve it.
They lack depth, and outside of their running backs, their
skill position performers aren’t all that great, they were
flattered by their big win in Tampa, but the Bucs may
prove to be one of the league’s worst defensive outfits.
The Cowboys are not a deep team and Dallas insiders
suggest that the talent level down the roster
Wade Phillips shouldn’t be on anyone’s “bet on” list as a
head coach, and now is taking his team to altitude on a
short week after a pair of big, prime-time games. And
what should we think of McDaniel as Denver’s head coach?
Listen to what defensive lineman Vonnie Holliday says
about his coach, "I've played a lot of football in this league
with a lot of teams and a lot of coaches, and we go into
games prepared for just about everything. It's very
impressive to me that Josh McDaniels, at only 33 years old,
has this intelligence, a depth of knowledge of the game
and an ability to prepare his team for all situations,"
Denver runs the ball, plays defense, avoids the kind of
mistakes that can befall to Cowboys, and take on a team in
a difficult scheduling situation. Sounds like a worthwhile
home doggie to me. Take the points with the Broncos.
Broncos by 4.
Monday, October 5th, 2009
Packers (+3½) over @Vikings
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
This game will be discussed ad nauseum all week
because it’s Brett Favre facing the Packers for the
first time since he was traded. So let’s just get this
little Favre snippet out of the way first. When
Packers general manager Ted Thompson wouldn’t
grant Favre his release and instead traded Favre, he
was adamant about not trading Favre within the
division. So when Thompson made the deal with
the Jets, he included a "poison pill" provision that
would have forced the Jets to give up three firstround
draft choices if they traded Favre to any other NFC
North team. After his release from the Jets, Favre was free
and signed with the Vikings two weeks into camp. Now
the Packers have to deal with the “poison pill” coming back
to haunt them. And we’re sure Favre will use this to fuel
his fire even more. But we like what Packers head coach
Mike McCarthy told reporters when asked about Favre and
the “poison pill”: "Keep it about the football game.”
Green Bay’s defense was dreadful a season ago, and as a
result, five coaches were fired. Dom Capers is now the
new defensive coordinator and his 3-4 scheme has made a
difference so far. After three games, the Packers are
allowing less than 4 yards per rush compared to last year’s
4.67 yards per rush average. They will get the acid test
this week facing Adrian Peterson who gashed them for 192
and 103 yards in the two meetings a season ago. We’ll
learn if Capers’ improvement is for real, or if it’s just a
result of the opponents they’ve faced. Coming into the
season, Green Bay’s offense was the least of their worries.
But after three games, the offense hasn’t been good at all.
A lot of that has to do with their shuffled offensive line, but
Chad Clifton is expected back this week which will get
things going. And with this game being played a day later
on Monday night, it makes Clifton’s return more likely
according to fellow lineman Daryn Colledge: “This is an
important game to him and an important game to our
season. I think he knows that and I would expect Chad to
be back.”
Minnesota’s offense looks like the real deal thus far. They
finally have complimentary pieces to go with Adrian
Peterson, and rookie Percy Harvin has proven to be a
game changer with a touchdown in all three games. But
there’s something to be aware of. In all three of their
games, the Vikings were trailing at the half. They’ve
needed to make comebacks, and they’ve exploded in the
second half out-scoring their opponents by a 58-20 margin.
They can’t expect to do that every week, especially here
against a Packers defense that is tied for the league lead
with 9 takeaways. Plus Green Bay’s offense has way too
many weapons to keep down, and we expect to see
significant improvement from them here. Under Mike
McCarthy, the Packers are a solid 12-6 against the spread
as a road underdog. His Packers are also perfect at
Minnesota going 3-0 to the number with 2 wins and a 1-
point loss. This divisional game is close throughout with
the dog winning it late. Packers by 3.
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 10 Issue 6 October 2nd-6th, 2009 •
College Football
Saturday, October 3rd, 2009
@Syracuse (+7) over South Florida
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
It looked bad for South Florida when Matt Grothe went
down with an injury and was lost for the season. And
that’s likely the only thing you’d heard about South Florida
until Saturday (an opening schedule of Wofford, Western
Kentucky, and Charleston Southern does a lot to keep
things under wraps). But redshirt freshman QB BJ Daniels
returned to his hometown of Tallahassee and helped the
Bulls to a victory over a wildly inconsistent Florida State
team. FSU is lost (Bobby Bowden’s press conferences just
keep getting more and more “crazy old grandpa”) and
helped to hand USF the game in numerous ways. Not only
did the Seminoles lose four fumbles, but they permitted
the Bulls rookie replacement to complete two passes of
longer than 70 yards. Matt Grothe had only one of those
in his entire career. But the Seminoles caught up to Daniels
in the second half, holding him to 4-12 for 49 yards and a
pair of INT’s, and Daniels cramped up repeatedly in the
second half, indicating he may not be in game shape.
USF had some huge emotional edges in that game. A
fallen teammate that died in a workout a couple of years
ago was a Tallahassee native and they dedicated the game
to him, to another fallen teammate, and to Grothe as well.
But those kind of gestures were hardly needed, as USF
played with an enormous chip on their shoulder in an effort
to give the program their first win over one of the Sunshine
State’s “Big 3” of Miami, Florida, and FSU. There are very
few players on the Bulls roster who would not be
Seminoles had they been offered, and that provided them
with a huge emotional advantage over FSU, who crashed
after their beatdown of BYU.
Now the Bulls face a similar quandary to what benefited
them against the Seminoles. Off of that hugely emotional
win, the win that they wanted the most this season, how
can they get up for a Syracuse team that they’ve beaten by
17 or more in all of their four years in the Big East? They
can’t. And importantly, this is a different kind of Syracuse
team. The Orangemen were lost sheep under the horribly
overmatched Greg Robinson over those four years, getting
outgained by 3.7 miles against 1-A opposition. But this is
obviously a different Syracuse team. Losing to Minnesota
in overtime, a respectable loss at Penn State (whose
players and coaches spoke glowingly of SU’s improvement
after the game) and a thrilling comeback win over
Northwestern preceded a game against 1-AA Maine that
set up perfectly for Syracuse. The flat Orangemen trailed
at the half before some halftime encouragement from
intense first year head coach Doug Marrone spurred them
to score on their first four drives of the second half. And
Syracuse is not without weapons. WR Mike Williams, back
from a year in academic purgatory, is a big reason why
Greg Paulus is on track to become the leading singleseason
yardage passer in Syracuse history. The defense
is much improved, and this team has played their guts out
with the exception of the first half on Saturday. Home field
advantage has returned to the Carrier Dome, a place that
can be a tough place to play for an inexperienced QB. USF
is the better team, but Syracuse brings enough to the table
to be right in this one. Syracuse by 1.
Florida St (- 5) over @Boston College
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Florida St’s season has been up and down so far,
and they’ve only played one complete game when
they waxed BYU 54-28. Last week, little brother
South Florida upset them at home as 14-point
underdogs. But that loss was not one of those
major upsets that was impossible. South Florida’s
program has been really good for the past three
years; they were ranked # 2 in the country at one
point in 2007. They caught Florida St at the perfect
time as the Seminoles were off a long trip and
perfect game in Provo, and the Seminoles knew that
South Florida’s starting quarterback Matt Grothe tore
his ACL and he wouldn’t play. When an opposing
team loses their best player, especially when he’s
the quarterback, the favorite usually takes them
lightly. And that’s exactly what we saw from Florida
St early in the game as the Bulls were up 14-0 at
the half. But let’s draw a line through that result
because history tells us that Florida St will bounce
back with a big win on Saturday.
With players coming and going, it’s obvious that a
coach’s system or more importantly, the way he
prepares his team for certain games does not
change. And for the past 34 years, Bobby Bowden’s
teams have consistently played well in their next
game after a loss. When his teams come off a
straight-up loss, they are 44-24 against the spread
(64.7%) which includes a perfect 4-0 in this role in
2008. This speaks volumes as to his ability to get
his kids to regroup and refocus during that week’s
practice, and we’ll look for Florida St to put last
week behind them and get a solid win in Chestnut
Hill.
Boston College enters off an overtime win against
Wake Forest. BC led that game 24-10 midway
through the 4th quarter, but their defense, and more
specifically their secondary, couldn’t stop the pass. The
Eagles allowed Wake QB Riley Skinner to complete 25-of-
35 passes for a career-high 354 yards. And they’ll have
their hands full again this week as Florida St’s Christian
Ponder has been real good this season completing 66.2%
of his passes for over 1,000 yards. The Seminoles have
been weak on the offensive line (5 sacks allowed last
week), but the BC defense only has 3 total sacks in 4
games. On defense, Florida St’s secondary is allowing over
10 yards per pass attempt, but again, they won’t be
challenged by a strong BC passing game. True-freshman
Dave Shinskie has taken over the starting job, but he’s in
for a rough afternoon against the speed and athleticism
he’ll see from Florida St. Last week, Shinskie faced a Wake
Forest defense that has nowhere near the speed and talent
of the Seminoles. It’s a big step-up in class for a freshman
making his second career start, especially facing a team off
a loss that also has revenge for a 27-17 home loss to
Boston College last year. Florida St by 13.
@Georgia (-2½) over LSU
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
I have to admit the 2009 Bulldog offense has me
scratching my head a little bit. After losing QB Matt
Stafford as #1 pick in the NFL draft it would be
normal to expect some dropoff. Yet after four games
against quality opponents - two on the road -
Georgia is averaging better than 30 points per
game. While Stafford's career numbers were ok at
Georgia, an ESPN study of 31 QBs drafted in the first
round since 1997 put him in the "bust" category,
ranked between flops Akili Smith and Cade McNown.
That posed the dilemma - would 2009 see a big
offensive decline because Stafford was an elite QB,
or a small decline if any because Stafford was
overrated?
The early indication may be that Stafford was
overrated. The Bulldogs aren't averaging more than
30 points per game because of their running game.
The ground attack is averaging under 3.67 yards per
carry, and fifth-year senior Joe Cox is compiling
numbers that look a lot like Stafford's 2008
performance. Last year Stafford completed 61.4% of
his throws for a little over 9 yards per attempt. Thus
far Cox is completing 60.4% of his attempts and
averaging 9 yards per toss.
My general tech is a tad thinner than what I usually
provide in this space. Elite teams like #4 ranked LSU
are often irresistible to square bettors when installed
as an underdog. In fact, ranked underdogs are a
little under 50% ATS when facing a lower ranked
favorite. The Tigers fall into a more selective 15-32
ATS spot based on this idea. Off a pair of wins over
winning opponents I have the Bulldogs in a 23-5
ATS momentum play with an average cover margin
just over 10 points per game. The best big sample
tech is a 217-136 ATS bounceback spot on Georgia
triggered by their ATS loss (23-17 win priced at -
11.5) last weekend to Arizona State. This play is 3-1
in 2009 including a win on Virginia Tech over Miami
on Saturday.
With four games under the belts of both teams my
stat model's ratings can now be trusted. While LSU
has been outscoring their early opponents by nearly
two touchdowns per game, after compensating for
scheduling the Bulldogs rate better than a
touchdown fave no matter the category: run only,
pass only, and overall yards per play.
Joe Cox may not have his predecessor's pedigree,
but his performance so far against a schedule of
opponents much tougher than his LSU counterpart
has faced is enough for me. I'm aware of Georgia's
poor ATS mark at home in recent years - just 8-17
since 2005, but the general tech is stronger than
this. Lay it. Georgia by 10.
@Miami FL (+7) over Oklahoma
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
This line looks as if it is priced in that Sam Bradford
is playing, and while we will expect to take a couple
less points if he does not get clearance from the
doctor, we will be on the Canes either way. Miami
was a media darling two weeks into the season, but
ran into the “perfect storm”, both literally and
figuratively, as they were pummeled into the wet
Blacksburg ground Saturday afternoon. They had
three very suspect calls all go against them in the
first eight minutes of the game, and things simply
snowballed from there. Virginia Tech scored first
half touchdowns on a drive of 12 yards that was
kept alive by a questionable 3rd down pass
interference in the end zone, and also on a 1 yd
blocked punt return. The elements were against
any team trying to come from behind on that day,
and Canes QB Jacorry Harris did not get to show his
stuff, while also being hampered by several key
second half drops. The Miami front seven was a
little thin due to injury and wore down in the 4th
quarter as Tech widened the margin. We’ll have to
check the Canes’ injury report on the defensive side
of the ball, but they could be a little deeper up front
this week against the Sooners.
Basically UM get caught reading their own press
clippings a bit too much, and walked into a buzzsaw
in Blacksburg. They were off of two huge revenge
wins to start the season, came in a bit fat and
happy, and could not adjust to the role of the
“hunted”, as the Hokies’ got revenge of their own.
They are still an extremely talented young team,
and with the combination of QB Harris, several
future NFL receivers, and new OC Mark Whipple,
this is a lot of firepower to be taking points at home
with. They are chomping at the bit to prove that
they are not a fluke, and this could be the game that
officially puts them back on the map.
We’ll acknowledge a coaching edge for the Sooners,
and Stoops does have an extra week to prepare off
of the bye. They beat up on Miami two years ago in
Norman, but that was Randy Shannon’s second
game as HC, and the talent level was nowhere near
what it is now at UM (only 1 Cane drafted last year,
none on the first day, only 3 in 2008). Oklahoma is
a Top 10 program anyway you slice it, but like many
other Big 12 teams, they have been exposed against
other elite teams the last few years. They have lost
5 of their last 6 bowl games both SU and ATS with
some ugly losses in that group. Now Miami has not
proven to be elite just yet, but outside of perhaps
Ohio St. vs. USC earlier this season, this is the most
talent you will take points at home with this season.
USC barely won that affair, and Oklahoma has
proven time and time again that no matter how
strong they look in conference, they aren’t USC.
Canes take this to the wire. OU by only 1 with
Bradford, UM by 3 without Bradford
Arkansas (pk) over Texas A&M
@JerryWorld, Arlington, TX
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Texas A&M is an improved team, but they’ve been
so bad the past couple of years it’d be hard for them
not to be. They are 3-0, but is there a BCS
conference team that wouldn’t be 3-0 with an
opening schedule of New Mexico, bye week, Utah
State, and UAB? The only 1-A win that that troika
has is UAB’s victory over 0-4 Rice. Now the Aggies
leave College Station for the first time this season,
going to play in Jerry Jones’ new playground in
Arlington (perhaps you’ve heard about it?)
Importantly, while Texas A&M is feeling good about
their 3-0 start, Arkansas is playing with tremendous
need. This is the best chance for a win for a Hogs
team whose improvement will be masked by the fact
that they entered this game off of losses to Georgia
and Alabama and follow it with games against
Auburn, Florida, and Ole’ Miss. This contest may be
their best chance to keep from pulling a donut
between their opener against Missouri State and a
Halloween home date with Eastern Michigan. While
the defense has proven lacking, the numbers given
up against Georgia and Alabama may not be so bad
in retrospect after we see what those clubs do to
some other teams.
Scouts are drooling over Ryan Mallett and the Hogs
should be able to run the ball some as well, as
A&M’s defense has been shaky at best. A&M stifled
New Mexico in their opener (who wouldn’t?) and
then things got tougher for the D. The Aggies
allowed Utah State to gain 521 yards of total offense
two weeks ago and this past Saturday permitted
UAB to run for 227 yards on 35 carries. One thing
A&M has done well thus far is pressure the QB, and
they have 14 sacks in their three games so far, but
the Petrino brothers are fine offensive designers and
should do some damage here. Jerrod Johnson of
Texas A&M frustrated coaches with is decisions in
preseason practice but has played well thus far, and
A&M should be able to trade points for a good
portion of this ballgame.
Again, we return to the scheduling and the need.
Not that A&M would overlook this game, but they’re
3-0 and next week they have their conference
opener vs. Oklahoma State, who beat them 56-28
last season. With a 1-2 start and a tremendous
gauntlet of a schedule upcoming, Arkansas needs
this badly. “We’ve got to win the game, no doubt,”
Hogs coach Bobby Petrino said on Sunday. Petrino
also pushed his players’ buttons by talking how he
felt they didn’t believe they could actually win at
Alabama on Saturday. Look for a peak performance
from Arkansas against an A&M club that may bring
less to the table than is thought. Bobby Petrino vs.
Mike Sherman? Sounds good to us. Arkansas by
7.
NFL
Sunday, October 4th, 2009
Titans (-3) over @Jacksonville
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Yes, I'm as surprised as you are too. I'm
recommending an 0-3 road favorite. They are pretty
rare. This is just the 57th such occasion since 1983.
And no, they are not the money burners you'd
expect. Winless road faves are 29-24-3 ATS. And if
they showed some life by losing their previous game
by 7 or fewer points the mark is 16-9 ATS.
Do defensive coordinators matter? I much prefer to
follow offensive coordinators. At both the pro and
college levels there is simply more variability on the
offensive side, both in performance and scheme. But
in Tennessee there has been a change that merits
some attention. Former Titans DC Jim Schwartz left
in the offseason to take the head job in Detroit, and
longtime defensive assistant Chuck Cecil got the
coordinator's job.
So far it has been a rocky start under Cecil. His work
the last five seasons as a secondary coach looked
very good. Tennessee sent a pair of safeties to the
Pro Bowl last year, and the Titans had the #2
defense in the league while allowing just over 14
points per game. This year in their three losses they
have allowed 71 points, good for the #24 ranking.
Most surprising is the poor pass defense, allowing a
net 6.9 yards per attempt. It’s too early to tell
though if this is a long term problem. Cecil seems to
have called for looser coverages and more zone,
which allows for better run support. And that has
worked. The Titans are allowing just 2.2 yards per
carry, tops in the the league. Cecil just may need to
find a balance between defending the run and pass.
This is one of the stronger technical games the NFL
will provide this season. First up is a 110-66 ATS
"flip-flop" system on Tennessee. Basically we're looking to
play certain teams that are worse this year than last. The
Titans certainly qualify, having finished the 2008 regular
season at 13-3 and stand today at 0-3. This system is one
of the most reliable in my database. Out of sample since
2003 it is 34-16 ATS including 1-0 so far this year.
Next up is a 78-38 ATS system based on the Titan's
occupancy of the cellar position in the AFC South. This
system is 23-15 ATS out of sample since 2002.
This game has considerable urgency for the visitors. On
deck is a game against the red hot Colts with a 3-0 mark.
If Tennessee doesn't win this game the losing skid could
easily reach four in a row. That urgency sparks a 51-21
ATS "lookahead" play with a healthy average cover margin
of +5.5 points per game. And finally, off their 31-24 win
over the Texas the Jags are in a negative 56-103 ATS
letdown situation that has netted just 30% winners out of
sample. Tennessee by 9.
Ravens (+2½) over @Patriots
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
No surprise that the Pats took care of business
against the Falcons on Sunday. Not only were they
off a loss to the Jets, but they were being openly
questioned by a Boston media that is usually
respectful of the franchise’s place in the universe.
So the Pats wiped out a Falcons team with
significant issues in the secondary, who strangely
decided not to pressure Tom Brady. Brady has not
looked comfortable when pressured against the Bills
and the Jets, but he looked comfortable against the
Falcons mediocre defense. The TD drives he led
Sunday were the only ones other than the two that
resulted in the comeback win over the Bills on the
opening Monday night of the season. The offensive
line doesn’t handle pressure well, first figured out by
the Giants in the Super Bowl a couple of years back.
You can be sure that the pressure will be unleashed
on Sunday. The Ravens may not still have Rex
Ryan as their defensive coordinator, but they still
have his philosophies. And you know that he’ll be
exchanging notes with his former coworkers on the
Baltimore staff as they try to beat his new division
nemesis. This is a rare instance where you can’t
expect a team to be outcoached by Belichick.
Remember how well this defense played when they
almost (should’ve) beaten the undefeated Pats on
that Monday night back in 2007?
The Ravens have much better personnel now than
they did back then. Terrell Suggs was off to a bit of
a slow start but healthy, he had a huge game
Sunday. With Joe Flacco and Ray Rice, the Ravens
have young pass/run skill people that are the envy
of the league. One reason that the Ravens are so
effective offensively despite all their youth is the job
Cam Cameron’s doing as offensive coordinator for
the Ravens. He’s top notch and you may have
heard that the Pats are reasonably well coached as
well. New England’s defense stepped up on Sunday
but all the old playmakers are gone, and the young
replacements may not be up to snuff for a test like
this, especially when LB Javon Ringer, one of the
games finest young defenders, remains out of the
lineup.
The Ravens dominated a pair of outmanned teams
at home and in between that were outplayed at San
Diego. But despite their mediocre performance
against the Chargers they stepped up and beat the
Bolts. That’s the sign of a good team. Wouldn’t
argue with those who think that the Ravens are the
league’s best. No surprise if the Ravens get
pressure against a offensive line that isn’t what it
once was. Ravens step up here against a Patriots
team that has been up and down at best, and lacks
experienced defensive playmakers to come up big in
an important game such as this. Ravens by 4.
@San Francisco -10 over St. Louis
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Don’t lay too much big chalk, especially in this
league, but when I do I want a team that is
clearly better in all 3 aspects of the game.
That’s what we have here, as San Fran was a
Brett Favre miracle away from a 3-0 start,
while St. Louis is the league’s worst team
according to my early season power ratings.
The hapless Rams, despite having not played a
team with a winning record thus far, are
bottom 8 in the league in both offensive and
defensive yards per play. They have scored 24
points on the season, and it is very hard to find any
positives. Steven Jackson went for 117 on the
ground last week, but St. Louis was behind the
whole game and Green Bay basically conceded the
run. Their leading receiver Laurent Robinson was
lost for the season in that game, and now it appears
that Marc Bulger will miss this one with a shoulder
injury. Bulger is closer to mediocre than he is above
average, but you can do a lot worse than him in this
league, and his backup is Kyle Boller, who would
definitely help our cause. It’s a mess right now in
St. Louis, and I expect the Rams to remain right
there with Tampa as the league’s worst teams this
season.
In the NFL there is always the threat of not taking a
team like St. Louis seriously, but the fact that the
49ers come into this one off of a loss should have
them focused. Mike Singletary doesn’t seem at all
like a coach that will let his team coast into this
game, and let’s face it, Frisco has been down long
enough (0 winning seasons in 6 years) to not take
anything for granted. Frank Gore will not play here,
but the 49ers passing game is improved with the
long-awaited emergence of Vernon Davis (97 yards
and 2 TDs against the Vikings), and the continued
development of QB Shaun Hill and 2nd year WR Josh
Morgan from Virginia Tech. I also expect Gore’s
backup, Glen Coffee, to find Rams’ 150.7 yard per
game run defense a lot more permissive than the
Vikings’ stalwart defensive front. The 49ers defense
was top 10 last season in yards per play, and they
rank 6th thus far in ’09. They should shut down a
Rams offense no matter who the QB is, as he will be
playing behind the league’s worst offensive line and
throwing to an unimposing group of wideouts.
Gore is a big loss, but this is more a play against the
floundering Rams than it is on the 49ers. St. Louis
simply does not have the weapons for a comeback
should they fall behind, as Bulger will be limited if he
plays, and scatter-armed Kyle Boller is always a
threat to do something very dumb in his own end.
Niners bounce back big after the loss. 49ers by 17
@Broncos (+3) over Cowboys
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Broncos have not had the toughest road to 3-0.
Their offense was awful against the Bengals and the
deflected full-field pass in the final seconds won the
game. Then they took on the Browns at home and
the Raiders on the road, and while neither of those
teams are any good, they took ‘em both out. Josh
McDaniel was a complete idiot all summer long,
right? Well the conventional wisdom is being turned
on its head a little bit. Even against the bad Raiders
there was a lot to be impressed by. Yardage was
372-137. The famous Broncos running game is alive
and well. Cornell Buckhalter ran for 108 yards on
only 14 carries. Rookie Knowshon Moreno added
90 yards on 4.37 yards per carry. So there’s a
combination of good fortune, good scheduling, and
solid play leading to the 3-0 start. Ordinarily we
might look to play against such a team if they were
laying some points into a team that needed a win.
But they aren’t laying any points at all in this one.
And they are taking on an opponent that will
certainly capture their attention. It will capture the
attention of the fans as well. Denver doesn’t enjoy
the home field edge they once did (who in a new
stadium really does), but they’ll be fired up for the
mighty Cowboys.
The Cowboys are simply terminally overrated, gathering
more media attention than anyone in football despite not
winning a playoff game since after the 1996 season (so
long ago that in that victory over the Vikings Amp Lee was
Minnesota’s leading rusher and Herschel Walker carried 8
times for Dallas). For the second consecutive week their
new stadium has been national news from being featured
on one of the feature national broadcasts. The Cowboys
just get tons of love, and they simply do not deserve it.
They lack depth, and outside of their running backs, their
skill position performers aren’t all that great, they were
flattered by their big win in Tampa, but the Bucs may
prove to be one of the league’s worst defensive outfits.
The Cowboys are not a deep team and Dallas insiders
suggest that the talent level down the roster
Wade Phillips shouldn’t be on anyone’s “bet on” list as a
head coach, and now is taking his team to altitude on a
short week after a pair of big, prime-time games. And
what should we think of McDaniel as Denver’s head coach?
Listen to what defensive lineman Vonnie Holliday says
about his coach, "I've played a lot of football in this league
with a lot of teams and a lot of coaches, and we go into
games prepared for just about everything. It's very
impressive to me that Josh McDaniels, at only 33 years old,
has this intelligence, a depth of knowledge of the game
and an ability to prepare his team for all situations,"
Denver runs the ball, plays defense, avoids the kind of
mistakes that can befall to Cowboys, and take on a team in
a difficult scheduling situation. Sounds like a worthwhile
home doggie to me. Take the points with the Broncos.
Broncos by 4.
Monday, October 5th, 2009
Packers (+3½) over @Vikings
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
This game will be discussed ad nauseum all week
because it’s Brett Favre facing the Packers for the
first time since he was traded. So let’s just get this
little Favre snippet out of the way first. When
Packers general manager Ted Thompson wouldn’t
grant Favre his release and instead traded Favre, he
was adamant about not trading Favre within the
division. So when Thompson made the deal with
the Jets, he included a "poison pill" provision that
would have forced the Jets to give up three firstround
draft choices if they traded Favre to any other NFC
North team. After his release from the Jets, Favre was free
and signed with the Vikings two weeks into camp. Now
the Packers have to deal with the “poison pill” coming back
to haunt them. And we’re sure Favre will use this to fuel
his fire even more. But we like what Packers head coach
Mike McCarthy told reporters when asked about Favre and
the “poison pill”: "Keep it about the football game.”
Green Bay’s defense was dreadful a season ago, and as a
result, five coaches were fired. Dom Capers is now the
new defensive coordinator and his 3-4 scheme has made a
difference so far. After three games, the Packers are
allowing less than 4 yards per rush compared to last year’s
4.67 yards per rush average. They will get the acid test
this week facing Adrian Peterson who gashed them for 192
and 103 yards in the two meetings a season ago. We’ll
learn if Capers’ improvement is for real, or if it’s just a
result of the opponents they’ve faced. Coming into the
season, Green Bay’s offense was the least of their worries.
But after three games, the offense hasn’t been good at all.
A lot of that has to do with their shuffled offensive line, but
Chad Clifton is expected back this week which will get
things going. And with this game being played a day later
on Monday night, it makes Clifton’s return more likely
according to fellow lineman Daryn Colledge: “This is an
important game to him and an important game to our
season. I think he knows that and I would expect Chad to
be back.”
Minnesota’s offense looks like the real deal thus far. They
finally have complimentary pieces to go with Adrian
Peterson, and rookie Percy Harvin has proven to be a
game changer with a touchdown in all three games. But
there’s something to be aware of. In all three of their
games, the Vikings were trailing at the half. They’ve
needed to make comebacks, and they’ve exploded in the
second half out-scoring their opponents by a 58-20 margin.
They can’t expect to do that every week, especially here
against a Packers defense that is tied for the league lead
with 9 takeaways. Plus Green Bay’s offense has way too
many weapons to keep down, and we expect to see
significant improvement from them here. Under Mike
McCarthy, the Packers are a solid 12-6 against the spread
as a road underdog. His Packers are also perfect at
Minnesota going 3-0 to the number with 2 wins and a 1-
point loss. This divisional game is close throughout with
the dog winning it late. Packers by 3.
WINNING POINTS
VOL 40/5 WED. OCTOBER 7, 2009
NFL
****BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over San Diego by 24
San Diego missing starters at the center of its offensive and defensive lines
will really hurt. LaDainian Tomlinson (check status) missing last week’s
home win against the Dolphins with an ankle injury commanded the headlines,
but the Chargers are without two key players – center Nick Hardwick
and nose tackle Jamal Williams. Their absence will be keenly felt on the
road in what shapes up as a physical matchup. The Steelers own a solid
edge in the trenches.The Chargers also could be missing star linebacker
Shawne Merriman, who suffered a groin injury last Sunday after missing
most of 2008 with a serious knee injury.The Steelers had last year’s topranked
defense.They can take advantage of San Diego’s patchwork offensive
line.With Tomlinson not at 100 percent, the Chargers have become
one-dimensional behind the passing of Philip Rivers.The Chargers are averaging
just 66 yards on the ground, while having 165 yards in penalties.
Some of that is coaching and Norv Turner is one of the poorest head coaches
in the league.Darren Sproles has been filling in for Tomlinson.He’s best
suited as a change of pace back since he lacks size.The 1-2 Steelers will
have a great deal of urgency and intensity for this matchup, trailing
Baltimore by two games in the AFC North Division.The Steelers are physical,
the Chargers are finesse.The Chargers have a much easier path competing
in the lightweight AFC West Division.They were 0-2 last year against
the Steelers, losing both times at Heinz Field.A key for Pittsburgh is protecting
Ben Roethlisberger.The Steelers should be able to accomplish that
with Merriman not at 100 percent. PITTSBURGH 34-10.
***BEST BET
Detroit over *Chicago by 7
After 644 days, 92 weeks and 19 straight losses, the Lions finally won.Now
what? How about a second straight victory facing division rival Chicago?
Most football coaches quote Rockne and Lombardi. Lions coach Jim
Schwartz quotes Shakespeare. He’s proven he can win a game, which is
what anybody cares about.The talent level isn’t up to par yet, but the Lions
have been more decisive and disciplined under Schwartz. The Lions had
played well in spurts during each of their three games this season. They
finally put it together. Beating the Redskins, a solid defensive club, was a
huge confidence and morale boost for Detroit.There is renewed energy in
the Motor City. The club has rallied around rookie quarterback Matthew
Stafford. They respect him for not always looking to check down, but to
take shots downfield. Stafford is learning and getting better each week.
With Calvin Johnson, the Lions have the best wide receiver on the field.
Detroit has covered six of its last seven road contests. The Bears aren’t
intimidating without star linebacker Brian Urlacher, out for the season with
a wrist injury. Chicago’s defense is mediocre at best without Urlacher.
Opponents have out-gained the Bears in 25 of the last 35 games.Detroit has
covered in four of the last six meetings versus Chicago. Jay Cutler provides
the Bears with their first serious vertical passer in a long time.Cutler, however,
is erratic and prone to mistakes.His presence has detracted from running
back Matt Forte, who had such an excellent rookie season. Forte is
averaging only 50 yards rushing per game this season and has yet to cross
the goal line. DETROIT 27-20.
**PREFERRED
Baltimore over *New England by 7
Maybe later this month the Pats will be back rolling.Right now, though, the
Patriots are struggling to find their defensive personality. New England’s
offense isn’t fully in sync either with Tom Brady recovering from knee surgery,
while learning new receivers and running backs and with reliable target
Wes Welker having missed the past two games.The Patriots are laying
points to a physical team with a better defense and a balanced, versatile
offense. Joe Flacco looks like the most improved quarterback in the league.
Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are providing Baltimore with a strong 1-2 running
punch.The Ravens have covered 18 of their last 23 games.They are
11-2 ATS in their past 13 AFC matchups.The Patriots have covered just four
times in their last 18 home contests.The Patriots traded their best defensive
lineman, Richard Seymour. They lost a lot of leadership and veteran
presence with Mike Vrabel gone to Kansas City and Tedy Bruschi and
Rodney Harrison retiring. On top of this, linebacker Jerod Mayo got hurt.
He was New England’s best defensive player. BALTIMORE 24-17.
Tennessee over *Jacksonville by 9
Jacksonville fans are lucky their home games are being blacked out. The
Jaguars can be tough to view with their inability to pass-block.They aren’t
very good either at defending against the pass. In this matchup, the Jaguars
draw a hungry and desperate winless Titans squad that just may be the best
0-3 team of the decade.Yes, the Titans also have problems in their secondary.
It has been very disappointing. But the Titans’ run defense has held
their three opponents (Steelers,Texans and Jets) to an average of only 2.1
yards per rush. Jacksonville relies heavily on running back Maurice Jones-
Drew.The Jaguars have always been a conservative, grind-it-out type squad
under embattled coach Jack Del Rio,who could be in his final season.The
Jaguars are trying to open their attack up more, but quarterback David
Garrard remains more a running threat than a downfield passer. Stop Jones-
Drew and you stop the Jaguars.Tennessee has covered 14 of the past 19
times against AFC South Division foes. The Titans also have covered in
seven of their last 10 road contests.TENNESSEE 24-15.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Houston over Oakland by 7
Certainly the Texans should beat an Oakland team that has failed to put up
200 yards of offense during each of the last two weeks.Don’t ask us to recommend
the Texans, though, when it comes to laying a margin. Houston
has failed to cover eight of the past 11 times it has been chalk. It’s the same
story for the Texans. They have a potentially explosive offense. But their
defense remains highly vulnerable. The Texans were favored on the road
against Oakland last year and lost 27-16 actually doing the near impossible
by making JaMarcus Russell look a professional quarterback.HOUSTON 20-
13.
Cincinnati over *Cleveland by 3
The Browns have been perfect – three games, three horrific performances.
Brady Quinn, otherwise known as Captain Checkdown, may have already
lost his starting job.A high-powered telescope couldn’t find hope for the
Browns, outscored 95-29 in going 0-3. However, be wary of laying road
points with the Bengals. It’s a division sandwich for Cincinnati, off a huge
home win against Pittsburgh and with a road game up next week versus
Baltimore.The Bengals have lost 14 of their last 17 away matchups.They are
0-6 ATS the week after playing Pittsburgh. CINCINNATI 20-17.
New York Giants over *Kansas City by 11
Two seasons ago the Giants won three playoff road games in a row on their
way to capturing the Super Bowl.This marks their third consecutive away
matchup, but it should prove much simpler against a punchless Chiefs
team that lost by 20 points last Sunday to the Eagles’ junior varsity. The
Giants have superior edges in all areas, including rushing the ball. This
should enable Eli Manning to pick his spots unhurried.Kansas City has only
one sack this season after recording a record-low 10 last year.No team has
proven better on the road than the Giants, having covered 19 of their last
23 away contests. NY GIANTS 27-16.
*Washington over Tampa Bay by 4
If Jim Zorn isn’t gone after losing to the Lions, he sure should be if
Washington loses this home matchup.Tampa Bay has lost seven in a row.
The Buccaneers’ once proud Cover 2 defense is in disarray. Long-time
defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin got out of Dodge just in time because
Tampa Bay is surrendering more than 432 yards per game, while coming
up with just one interception and three sacks.The Redskins are without
their top run blocker, Randy Thomas. He’s out for the year and Clinton
Portis is nicked up.WASHINGTON 21-17.
*Indianapolis over Seattle by 10
After crisscrossing the country with games at Miami and Arizona the past
two weeks, the Colts return home to face a Seattle squad that has multiple
injuries for the second season in a row.The Seahawks will look to play control
with their new zone run blocking schemes. But if Matt Hasselbeck
(check status) remains out, the Colts will stack the line daring the
Seahawks to pass behind backup quarterback Seneca Wallace. The
Seahawks have injuries again in their offensive line and have been without
their best cornerback Marcus Trufant along with linebackers Lofa Tatupu
and Leroy Hill. INDIANAPOLIS 27-17.
*New Orleans over New York Jets by 9
Rex Ryan has transformed the Jets into a feared defensive unit with New
York yielding just two touchdowns in three games.The Jets have kept the
Patriots,Texans and Titans in check.Now, though, they venture into a loud,
unfriendly dome setting where the Saints are at their speediest on home
carpet. New Orleans has wracked up 1,314 yards while averaging 40
points. The unbeaten Jets are due for a letdown. They have division rival
Miami up next,while the Saints are off next week.This is Drew Brees’ turn
to shine. NEW ORLEANS 33-24.
*Miami over Buffalo by 6
After turning the ball over only 13 times last year, the Dolphins are a minus
6 in turnover ratio this season. Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last
12 games.The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS and 3-7 SU the past 10 times they’ve
faced Buffalo. Chad Pennington (check status) suffered a shoulder injury
last week. But the Bills aren’t in much better shape even though Marshawn
Lynch returns from suspension.Trent Edwards is looking like he isn’t starting
quarterback material.Terrell Owens could cause problems for his teammates
after having his consecutive reception streak end.MIAMI 23-17.
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 9
The Rams are definitely a team to avoid having been out-scored 360-140 in
losing 13 consecutive games.This includes seven road losses in a row.The
Rams are 1-8 ATS in their past nine NFC West Division contests.The 49ers
have been money in the bank under Mike Singletary going 8-2-1 ATS, but
they haven’t been more than seven-point favorites since 2003. San
Francisco has been a terrible favorite going 9-19-1 ATS. Frank Gore may not
play because of an ankle injury. The Rams could be energized with Kyle
Boller at quarterback rather than Marc Bulger (check status). SAN FRANCISCO
21-12.
Dallas over *Denver by 4
Denver’s defense has been much better than advertised. Breaking in eight
new defensive starters, the Broncos have held foes to 16 points,while creating
eight turnovers after having only 13 takeaways last season.Denver has
done this against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland. Now the Broncos are
stepping up in class. Denver does catch a huge situational break since the
Cowboys are traveling on a short week having hosted Carolina on Monday
night. Dallas entered its Monday matchup yielding nearly five yards per
rush and more than 7.5 yards per pass. DALLAS 25-21.
*Minnesota over Green Bay by 6 (Monday)
Get ready for possibly the most viewed game ever on Monday night.People
aren’t going to be tuning in to watch Ryan Grant gain one yard up the middle.
This figures to be a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre.
Favre doesn’t know his long-time team so well anymore being two years
removed and with Green Bay switching to a 3-4 defense.The problem for
the Packers is a porous offensive line that has surrendered 12 sacks and is
sure to have problems communicating in the noisy Metrodome and being
without stalwart left tackle Chad Clifton.MINNESOTA 27-21.
VOL 40/5 WED. OCTOBER 7, 2009
NFL
****BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over San Diego by 24
San Diego missing starters at the center of its offensive and defensive lines
will really hurt. LaDainian Tomlinson (check status) missing last week’s
home win against the Dolphins with an ankle injury commanded the headlines,
but the Chargers are without two key players – center Nick Hardwick
and nose tackle Jamal Williams. Their absence will be keenly felt on the
road in what shapes up as a physical matchup. The Steelers own a solid
edge in the trenches.The Chargers also could be missing star linebacker
Shawne Merriman, who suffered a groin injury last Sunday after missing
most of 2008 with a serious knee injury.The Steelers had last year’s topranked
defense.They can take advantage of San Diego’s patchwork offensive
line.With Tomlinson not at 100 percent, the Chargers have become
one-dimensional behind the passing of Philip Rivers.The Chargers are averaging
just 66 yards on the ground, while having 165 yards in penalties.
Some of that is coaching and Norv Turner is one of the poorest head coaches
in the league.Darren Sproles has been filling in for Tomlinson.He’s best
suited as a change of pace back since he lacks size.The 1-2 Steelers will
have a great deal of urgency and intensity for this matchup, trailing
Baltimore by two games in the AFC North Division.The Steelers are physical,
the Chargers are finesse.The Chargers have a much easier path competing
in the lightweight AFC West Division.They were 0-2 last year against
the Steelers, losing both times at Heinz Field.A key for Pittsburgh is protecting
Ben Roethlisberger.The Steelers should be able to accomplish that
with Merriman not at 100 percent. PITTSBURGH 34-10.
***BEST BET
Detroit over *Chicago by 7
After 644 days, 92 weeks and 19 straight losses, the Lions finally won.Now
what? How about a second straight victory facing division rival Chicago?
Most football coaches quote Rockne and Lombardi. Lions coach Jim
Schwartz quotes Shakespeare. He’s proven he can win a game, which is
what anybody cares about.The talent level isn’t up to par yet, but the Lions
have been more decisive and disciplined under Schwartz. The Lions had
played well in spurts during each of their three games this season. They
finally put it together. Beating the Redskins, a solid defensive club, was a
huge confidence and morale boost for Detroit.There is renewed energy in
the Motor City. The club has rallied around rookie quarterback Matthew
Stafford. They respect him for not always looking to check down, but to
take shots downfield. Stafford is learning and getting better each week.
With Calvin Johnson, the Lions have the best wide receiver on the field.
Detroit has covered six of its last seven road contests. The Bears aren’t
intimidating without star linebacker Brian Urlacher, out for the season with
a wrist injury. Chicago’s defense is mediocre at best without Urlacher.
Opponents have out-gained the Bears in 25 of the last 35 games.Detroit has
covered in four of the last six meetings versus Chicago. Jay Cutler provides
the Bears with their first serious vertical passer in a long time.Cutler, however,
is erratic and prone to mistakes.His presence has detracted from running
back Matt Forte, who had such an excellent rookie season. Forte is
averaging only 50 yards rushing per game this season and has yet to cross
the goal line. DETROIT 27-20.
**PREFERRED
Baltimore over *New England by 7
Maybe later this month the Pats will be back rolling.Right now, though, the
Patriots are struggling to find their defensive personality. New England’s
offense isn’t fully in sync either with Tom Brady recovering from knee surgery,
while learning new receivers and running backs and with reliable target
Wes Welker having missed the past two games.The Patriots are laying
points to a physical team with a better defense and a balanced, versatile
offense. Joe Flacco looks like the most improved quarterback in the league.
Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are providing Baltimore with a strong 1-2 running
punch.The Ravens have covered 18 of their last 23 games.They are
11-2 ATS in their past 13 AFC matchups.The Patriots have covered just four
times in their last 18 home contests.The Patriots traded their best defensive
lineman, Richard Seymour. They lost a lot of leadership and veteran
presence with Mike Vrabel gone to Kansas City and Tedy Bruschi and
Rodney Harrison retiring. On top of this, linebacker Jerod Mayo got hurt.
He was New England’s best defensive player. BALTIMORE 24-17.
Tennessee over *Jacksonville by 9
Jacksonville fans are lucky their home games are being blacked out. The
Jaguars can be tough to view with their inability to pass-block.They aren’t
very good either at defending against the pass. In this matchup, the Jaguars
draw a hungry and desperate winless Titans squad that just may be the best
0-3 team of the decade.Yes, the Titans also have problems in their secondary.
It has been very disappointing. But the Titans’ run defense has held
their three opponents (Steelers,Texans and Jets) to an average of only 2.1
yards per rush. Jacksonville relies heavily on running back Maurice Jones-
Drew.The Jaguars have always been a conservative, grind-it-out type squad
under embattled coach Jack Del Rio,who could be in his final season.The
Jaguars are trying to open their attack up more, but quarterback David
Garrard remains more a running threat than a downfield passer. Stop Jones-
Drew and you stop the Jaguars.Tennessee has covered 14 of the past 19
times against AFC South Division foes. The Titans also have covered in
seven of their last 10 road contests.TENNESSEE 24-15.
*CLOSE CALLS
*Houston over Oakland by 7
Certainly the Texans should beat an Oakland team that has failed to put up
200 yards of offense during each of the last two weeks.Don’t ask us to recommend
the Texans, though, when it comes to laying a margin. Houston
has failed to cover eight of the past 11 times it has been chalk. It’s the same
story for the Texans. They have a potentially explosive offense. But their
defense remains highly vulnerable. The Texans were favored on the road
against Oakland last year and lost 27-16 actually doing the near impossible
by making JaMarcus Russell look a professional quarterback.HOUSTON 20-
13.
Cincinnati over *Cleveland by 3
The Browns have been perfect – three games, three horrific performances.
Brady Quinn, otherwise known as Captain Checkdown, may have already
lost his starting job.A high-powered telescope couldn’t find hope for the
Browns, outscored 95-29 in going 0-3. However, be wary of laying road
points with the Bengals. It’s a division sandwich for Cincinnati, off a huge
home win against Pittsburgh and with a road game up next week versus
Baltimore.The Bengals have lost 14 of their last 17 away matchups.They are
0-6 ATS the week after playing Pittsburgh. CINCINNATI 20-17.
New York Giants over *Kansas City by 11
Two seasons ago the Giants won three playoff road games in a row on their
way to capturing the Super Bowl.This marks their third consecutive away
matchup, but it should prove much simpler against a punchless Chiefs
team that lost by 20 points last Sunday to the Eagles’ junior varsity. The
Giants have superior edges in all areas, including rushing the ball. This
should enable Eli Manning to pick his spots unhurried.Kansas City has only
one sack this season after recording a record-low 10 last year.No team has
proven better on the road than the Giants, having covered 19 of their last
23 away contests. NY GIANTS 27-16.
*Washington over Tampa Bay by 4
If Jim Zorn isn’t gone after losing to the Lions, he sure should be if
Washington loses this home matchup.Tampa Bay has lost seven in a row.
The Buccaneers’ once proud Cover 2 defense is in disarray. Long-time
defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin got out of Dodge just in time because
Tampa Bay is surrendering more than 432 yards per game, while coming
up with just one interception and three sacks.The Redskins are without
their top run blocker, Randy Thomas. He’s out for the year and Clinton
Portis is nicked up.WASHINGTON 21-17.
*Indianapolis over Seattle by 10
After crisscrossing the country with games at Miami and Arizona the past
two weeks, the Colts return home to face a Seattle squad that has multiple
injuries for the second season in a row.The Seahawks will look to play control
with their new zone run blocking schemes. But if Matt Hasselbeck
(check status) remains out, the Colts will stack the line daring the
Seahawks to pass behind backup quarterback Seneca Wallace. The
Seahawks have injuries again in their offensive line and have been without
their best cornerback Marcus Trufant along with linebackers Lofa Tatupu
and Leroy Hill. INDIANAPOLIS 27-17.
*New Orleans over New York Jets by 9
Rex Ryan has transformed the Jets into a feared defensive unit with New
York yielding just two touchdowns in three games.The Jets have kept the
Patriots,Texans and Titans in check.Now, though, they venture into a loud,
unfriendly dome setting where the Saints are at their speediest on home
carpet. New Orleans has wracked up 1,314 yards while averaging 40
points. The unbeaten Jets are due for a letdown. They have division rival
Miami up next,while the Saints are off next week.This is Drew Brees’ turn
to shine. NEW ORLEANS 33-24.
*Miami over Buffalo by 6
After turning the ball over only 13 times last year, the Dolphins are a minus
6 in turnover ratio this season. Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last
12 games.The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS and 3-7 SU the past 10 times they’ve
faced Buffalo. Chad Pennington (check status) suffered a shoulder injury
last week. But the Bills aren’t in much better shape even though Marshawn
Lynch returns from suspension.Trent Edwards is looking like he isn’t starting
quarterback material.Terrell Owens could cause problems for his teammates
after having his consecutive reception streak end.MIAMI 23-17.
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 9
The Rams are definitely a team to avoid having been out-scored 360-140 in
losing 13 consecutive games.This includes seven road losses in a row.The
Rams are 1-8 ATS in their past nine NFC West Division contests.The 49ers
have been money in the bank under Mike Singletary going 8-2-1 ATS, but
they haven’t been more than seven-point favorites since 2003. San
Francisco has been a terrible favorite going 9-19-1 ATS. Frank Gore may not
play because of an ankle injury. The Rams could be energized with Kyle
Boller at quarterback rather than Marc Bulger (check status). SAN FRANCISCO
21-12.
Dallas over *Denver by 4
Denver’s defense has been much better than advertised. Breaking in eight
new defensive starters, the Broncos have held foes to 16 points,while creating
eight turnovers after having only 13 takeaways last season.Denver has
done this against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland. Now the Broncos are
stepping up in class. Denver does catch a huge situational break since the
Cowboys are traveling on a short week having hosted Carolina on Monday
night. Dallas entered its Monday matchup yielding nearly five yards per
rush and more than 7.5 yards per pass. DALLAS 25-21.
*Minnesota over Green Bay by 6 (Monday)
Get ready for possibly the most viewed game ever on Monday night.People
aren’t going to be tuning in to watch Ryan Grant gain one yard up the middle.
This figures to be a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre.
Favre doesn’t know his long-time team so well anymore being two years
removed and with Green Bay switching to a 3-4 defense.The problem for
the Packers is a porous offensive line that has surrendered 12 sacks and is
sure to have problems communicating in the noisy Metrodome and being
without stalwart left tackle Chad Clifton.MINNESOTA 27-21.
WINNING POINTS
VOL 40/5 WED. OCTOBER 7, 2009
college
****BEST BET
ARKANSAS over TEXAS A&M by 21 (at Arlington)
We could not have asked for anything better from Saturday’s results involving these
two teams than what took place. We cashed that easy ticket with Alabama over
Arkansas on top of this page, while also getting Texas A&M home easily in that **
PREFERRED call. But adding even more pleasure to those game flows was the
way that this one was set up. Now we get to take the far superior team in a bargain
price range, largely because no one knows just how much better the Razorbacks
are. They were in against the wrong opponent at Alabama, but note that despite
getting out-classed on the scoreboard they never did back off at the line of scrimmage
– Terry Richardson broke a 52-yard TD run for the Crimson Tide, but on
all other running plays they were held to 82 yards on 40 attempts. Now Arkansas
steps down in class at the line of scrimmage, and any time that happens it means
that Ryan Mallett, Michael Smith and some talented WR’s can stretch the field in
Bobby Petrino’s playbook, with the acumen of the coach at putting playmakers in
position to make plays among the best in the land. That spells trouble for an Aggie
defense that was helpless against the better teams that they faced last year, and in
fact allowed 37.4 points and 462 yards over all games. We do not see any signs of
real improvement, especially from a pass rush that was non-existent, but a weak
schedule has kept that hidden. Now A&M gets fully exposed here vs. an opponent
that has grown up faster off of much tougher challenges. ARKANSAS 41-20.
***BEST BET
GEORGIA* over L.S.U. by 18
The perception here will be that L.S.U. is an “A” level program playing with
revenge, off of that 52-38 loss to these Bulldogs in Baton Rouge LY. That perception
puts this game in the wrong pointspread range, and gives us a chance to take
advantage of some serious weaknesses that Les Miles and his team bring to Athens.
Miles, of course, is the prime target, with his fifth season meaning that there are
no longer any Nick Saban recruits around, and this is not the same program he
inherited. It showed in last year’s disappointing 3-5 tally in the S.E.C. standings,
and despite being 4-0 so far this Tiger edition may be even weaker than that one.
Note that in those road wins at Washington and Mississippi State they trailed by
an amazing 17 first downs and 268 yards of total offense, and even those home
wins vs. Vanderbilt and UL-Lafayette were bereft of any real dominance.
Meanwhile Georgia brings the polish that the Tigers lack, and a case could be made
that every Bulldog opponent so far is better than any team that L.S.U. has faced.
Those edges in fundamentals and discipline between these programs have been
most evident in both Miles vs. Mark Richt battles so far, with Georgia winning by
a combined 34 points on the scoreboard and 35 vs. the pointspread. Over the
course of 60 minutes there is ample time for that to show again, especially with
L.S.U. not finding a lead direction either overland or through the air on offense so
far, a necessity if you are going to win “between the hedges”. GEORGIA 35-17.
**PREFERRED
Minnesota* over Wisconsin by 11
We are now in October, and Wisconsin has yet to leave Madison. While that does
help to pad the W/L record to insure at least a minor bowl bid later on, for a team
with a lot of young faces playing key roles that first trip can be a danger zone, and
the new atmosphere at Minnesota is exactly the kind of setting for a vulnerable
team to struggle. Note that the Badgers are unbeaten despite allowing both Fresno
State and Michigan State to roll for over 400 yards at Camp Randall Stadium, with
wins in those two games coming via a +6 turnover advantage. Now the weakest
Wisconsin defensive front in many seasons will have a difficult time getting leverage
on the road, and with the Minnesota ground game showing some signs of life
last week the Gophers can now balance their playbook. Note that Tim Brewster’s
crew took the Badgers to the max before falling 35-32 on the road last year, after
leading by 14 in the second half, and their edge in experience at QB with Adam
Weber takes them the full 60 minutes this time. MINNESOTA 31-20.
Clemson over Maryland* by 25
The last thing that Ralph Friedgen needs to run into right now is a physical opponent
coming in with a chip on their shoulder, but that is what he is up against here,
and there are no answers to be found. While the Terrapins will offer opponents
later in the season a chance to take a breather that is absolutely not the case this
week, with Clemson coming in wanting to not only spit the bitter taste of last
week’s tough loss to T.C.U., but there is also that matter of the ugly 20-17 home
loss to these Terrapins in Death Valley last year. It was the kind of giveaway that
can frustrate a team the most, with an 0-3 turnover differential turning a 17-6 halftime
lead into a 20-17 defeat, and that means not just getting a pound of flesh
here, but getting it in style. With next week off there is no holding back, and there
is also nothing that Maryland can do to hold them back – the Terps are basically
without a strength in any area, and that includes fundamentals, with 13 turnovers
already, three of them being returned for TD’s. CLEMSON 34-9.
Air Force over Navy* by 7
Sometimes we have to let the pendulums of sport work for us, and that is what we
have in this matchup, especially with Tim Jefferson returning at QB for Air Force
this week (the offense sputtered without him vs. San Diego State, but we will not
attach all that much significance to those numbers). In a series between programs
that are close to even, with the same kind of athletes on both sides of the ball and
similar playbooks, the current 6-0 SU run by the Midshipmen over the Falcons,
the longest in the history of the series, may simply be an anomaly. Those six wins
have come by a combined total of just 33 points, and there were few instances in
which Navy was clearly the better team; like last year’s 33-27 upset in Colorado
Springs, when two blocked punts for touchdowns negated a 411-244 deficit in
total offense. Every point being offered is valuable here in a game that should again
go to the final possession, but this time the Flyboys get their breakthrough, with
the superior defense keying the tactical battle. AIR FORCE 29-22.
Iowa* over Arkansas State by 10
Calling for an Iowa letdown here off of that physical win at Penn State is a natural,
as is the fact that next week’s home showdown with Michigan now looms at a
much higher level of significance. But what makes this even better is that the
Hawkeyes simply do not have the kind of explosiveness that we fear when dealing
with this pointspread range, so we are not subject to the underdog getting taken
out by a couple of big plays. Through 274 offensive snaps the biggest play that the
Iowa offense has made is only 43 yards, and this week looking for big plays is not
even the order of business – Kirk Ferentz will be more than content to grind it out
and work the clock, hoping to keep his starters as fresh as possible for bigger challenges
ahead. Meanwhile Arkansas State has some experienced playmakers in QB
Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold, both seniors, and a veteran WR corps, and having
been to Nebraska, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and Auburn the last three seasons
there is no intimidation at this venue. IOWA 26-16.
*CLOSE CALLS
Louisiana Tech* over Hawaii by 6 (Wednesday)
Playing on the mainland for three straight weeks can take a toll on the young
Warrior defense. And the extra prep time is a tactical plus vs. the Hawaii playbook.
LOUISIANA TECH 33-27.
West Virginia* over Colorado by 18 (Thursday)
A bye week may help to get Jarrett Brown, Scooter Berry and Reed Williams
healthy, and note that the Mountaineers out-scored East Carolina and Auburn by
a combined 65-61 despite being -8 in turnovers. WEST VIRGINIA 35-17.
Southern Miss over U.A.B.* by 13 (Thursday)
The host Blazers can carry a chip on their shoulder after being embarrassed 70-14
on the Golden Eagle turf last year, but once again depth is the key issue, and it
shows in the latter stages.. SOUTHERN MISS 37-24.
Pittsburgh over Louisville* by 3 (Friday)
The Panther defense was on the field for 81 snaps on Saturday and eventually ran
out of gas. Having to travel again on a short practice week is not the easiest way to
recover from that level of fatigue. PITTSBURGH 27-24.
Brigham Young* over Utah State by 19 (Friday)
Diondre Borel is showing enough playmaking ability to make the Aggies dangerous
in this pointspread range, especially since this game is marked in bolder letters
on their calendar than for the host Cougars. B.Y.U. 41-22.
South Florida over Syracuse* by 4
B. J. Daniels made a terrific account of himself at Florida State last week, but when
some of that adrenaline wears off he will find that this Syracuse defensive front has
been rather gnarly so far this season. SOUTH FLORIDA 24-20.
East Carolina over Marshall* by 3
The inability of the Pirates to get anything going on the ground this season means
that nothing comes easily on the road, especially as Marshall is emerging to lead
Marshall. Darius, that is. EAST CAROLINA 24-21.
Purdue* over Northwestern by 6
With both teams running similar playbooks no one is supposed to fool anyone, so
it comes down to Ralph Bolden being the major edge, providing the Boilermakers
with a true lead RB that the Wildcats lack. PURDUE 30-24.
N. C. State over Wake Forest* by 4
Although starting a different OL in every game has led to some inconsistency, we
may have seen that group come of age in the second half against Pittsburgh with
those convincing late TD drives. N. C. STATE 28-24.
North Carolina* over Virginia by 16
Off of a bye week, will we see Virginia go back to those pro sets that were effective
vs. Southern Miss, or more of the spread that they were so dismal at running in
the opening weeks? It does make it tougher for Butch Davis to develop his defensive
game plan. NORTH CAROLINA 30-14.
Florida State over Boston College* by 9
Not only are the Seminoles the most erratic team in the nation so far this season,
but their roller coaster ride rivals any team in recent memory. Until that OL shows
the cohesion that was supposed to be their strength this fall, it may remain that
way. FLORIDA STATE 26-17.
Central Michigan over Buffalo* by 8
After benefitting far too much from favorable bounces last year, we find the Bulls
-10 in turnover differential through the end of November, and with the corresponding
change in scoreboard fortunes. And that is just the way that football
works. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31-23.
Toledo over Ball State* by 7
Before getting excited about the points that Ball State put up at Auburn, note that
the Cardinals had only 260 yards on 74 snaps. The Rockets bring much more confidence
and better QB play to the conference opener. TOLEDO 31-24.
Alabama over Kentucky* by 19
You have to have some serious playmakers to be able to challenge the Alabama
defense this season. Outside of Randall Cobb, Kentucky has no others. ALABAMA
31-12.
Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 11
The early polls did not do Houston Nutt any favors in placing his Rebels at far too
lofty of a position, and that makes regaining their focus a challenge. But films of
last year’s 23-17 home loss to these Commodores, when six turnovers negated a
385-202 advantage in total offense, will help. MISSISSIPPI 27-16.
Cincinnati over Miami O.* by 36
The Bearcats will have far more fans at Yager Stadium than the “host”, and with
11 days off before playing again there is no reason to hold back, especially given
the new position in the polls. CINCINNATI 45-9.
Temple over Eastern Michigan* by 1
The Eastern bye week could not have come at a batter time, with QB Kyle
McMahon getting ample opportunity to work with the first-team after the loss of
starter Andy Schmitt. Unusual role for the Owls, who had a wretched offensive
game vs. Buffalo that did not show on the scoreboard. TEMPLE 24-23.
Army* over Tulane by 10
Things got so bad at Tulane during a bye two weeks ago that Bob Toledo stopped
a practice early and sent everyone home. The response? Allowing 32 points and
473 yards to McNeese State, continuing a pattern of all opponents going over 200
both running and passing so far. ARMY 34-24.
Virginia Tech over Duke* by 11
Hokies established themselves as the A.C.C. front-runners with that domination
of Miami, but margins are not going to come easily for a team that has not completed
50 percept of its passes in any game so far. VIRGINIA TECH 27-16.
Notre Dame* over Washington by 10
The Fighting Irish should have a healthier Jimmy Clausen this week, but this
defense can be challenged by exactly the kind of mobility that Jake Locker brings.
But the rest of the Huskies may only bring 45 minutes to a 60-minute game as visitors
this autumn. NOTRE DAME 37-27.
Georgia Tech over Mississippi State* by 5
The heartbreak of those closing moments vs. L.S.U. could have a lingering effect
on the Bulldogs, but this coaching staff should do a better tactical job vs. Paul
Johnson’s option than last year’s embarrassment in Atlanta, when they allowed 500
yards in a 38-7 drubbing. GEORGIA TECH 24-19.
Oklahoma over Miami F.* by 8
While so much focus is put on whether or not Sam Bradford can play this week,
we keep looking at how solid Landry Jones was vs. Tulsa, and the fact that he was
actually a more highly rated recruit coming out of high school than last year’s
Heisman Trophy winner. OKLAHOMA 31-23.
Penn State over Illinois* by 3
Both sides have to shake off major disappointments, and the edge in that category
should go to the home team, which was aiming at much lower targets, which are
still available. First road outing for that young Lion OL is also an issue. PENN
STATE 23-20.
Michigan State* over Michigan by 3
Although it is not much of a trip, it is still the first time that the Wolverines have
played anywhere other than their home turf. And as the season goes on, we may
find that those wins over Notre Dame and Indiana were supposed to be easier than
they were. MICHIGAN STATE 27-24.
Western Michigan over Northern Illinois* by 1
Tim Hiller is the kind of veteran field general that we like in the road underdog
role, and can make plays vs. a defense that just allowed Idaho to both run and pass
for over 200 yards on this field, without a turnover in 67 snaps. WESTERN
MICHIGAN 28-27.
Bowling Green* over Ohio by 3
When the talent is close, you have to be able to make some plays to cover as chalk.
A Falcon pass defense that has not intercepted a pass in 177 attempts so far is not
the poster child for making those plays. BOWLING GREEN 27-24.
Nevada* over U.N.L.V. by 8
What was supposed to be a season of promise in Reno has opened 0-3, largely
through a -9 turnover differential. But this in-state showdown can help them to
generate some needed spark, and note that they rolled for 620 yards in last year’s
49-27 win in Las Vegas. NEVADA 35-27.
Colorado State over Idaho* by 3
The Vandal numbers are very legit so far, and with Colorado State caught in
between a pair of conference games, the door is opened for another potential
break-through. COLORADO STATE 31-28.
Iowa State over Kansas State by 3 (at Kansas City)
We’re just not sure what the attraction is for downtrodden programs to play at a
neutral site, and there is no attraction to any handicap, except that the Cyclones
appear to be much further along in their redevelopment. Slightly, that is. IOWA
STATE 27-24.
Arizona State* over Oregon State by 6
A ball-hawking Arizona State pass defense has already come up with eight interceptions,
returning two of them for TD’s, and that means the chance to make some
game-turning plays against Sean Canfield. Now if only the Sun Devils had an
offense that we could trust. ARIZONA STATE 27-21.
Oregon* over Washington State by 36
Off of that impressive thrashing of Cal, and with a trip to U.C.L.A. on deck, Chip
Kelly is allowed to be a gentleman here. Having the Cougars in your conference is
like getting a second bye week. OREGON 45-9.
Baylor* over Kent State by 17
Losing Robert Griffin for the full season is not just a blow in terms of his contributions
on the field, but a crippling loss from a team morale standpoint. But the
Bears can still at least handle the inept offense of this opponent. BAYLOR 30-13.
Central Florida* over Memphis by 5
Early results are making it look like Conference USA will be a road dog bonanza
this season, and this setting fits the bill – there is nothing daunting about a largely
empty stadium, or the punchless Golden Knight offense. U.C.F. 27-22.
Stanford* over U.C.L.A. by 6
The Bruins do not have Kevin Prince slated for a return at QB yet, which means
that this game should be decided by the better ground game. Note that the
Cardinal controlled the line of scrimmage to a 250-86 edge last year despite losing
23-20 on the scoreboard. STANFORD 27-21.
Texas Tech* over New Mexico by 40
Off of back-to-back frustrating defeats we can expect Mike Leach to be in an
ornery mood this week, which is bad news for an opponent that can not slow down
the onslaught in any way. TEXAS TECH 56-16.
Ohio State over Indiana* by 18
The Hoosiers actually made the Michigan defense look slow in rolling to 467 yards
at Ann Arbor last week. Now they’ll have to face off against a much swifter opponent,
and one that will come in more than forewarned off of last week’s films.
OHIO STATE 31-13.
Tulsa over Rice* by 17
Even with Chase Clement at the helm the Owls were drubbed 63-28 on the road
in this matchup last year, and the muddled QB picture does not make it any easier
this time around. TULSA 41-24.
Auburn over Tennessee* by 1
The first road outing brings all of the usual issues along for the ride with an
Auburn team that has not had to face this class of defense yet. But much better
offensive personnel still merit the SU nod. AUBURN 24-23.
Southern Cal over California* by 4
We will rate the Trojans as the team more likely to come with the right focus
between two teams off to disappointing starts, but that stodgy offense prevents us
from pushing this higher on the page, where it would have been in other seasons.
SOUTHERN CAL 27-23.
T.C.U.* over S.M.U. by 29
The Mustangs have already turned the ball over 11 times, with three of them being
returned for TD’s, despite facing defenses that are nowhere near the class of what
they are up against this week. T.C.U. got a Pick Six in last year’s 48-7 win, and is
no worse than even money to get another defensive score this time around. T.C.U.
45-16.
San Diego State* over New Mexico State by 18
Downtrodden Aggies have to leave the state for the first time, and might still be
celebrating that tense win over New Mexico on Saturday night. When you do not
win often, you are allowed such celebrations. SAN DIEGO STATE 34-16.
Houston over U.T.E.P.* by 10
A rare case of a team having a letdown in the conference opener off of bigger
doings outside of the league, but until we decipher just why this Miner offense is
misfiring so badly we do not want any part of the “situation” this provides. HOUSTON
38-28.
Florida Atlantic* over Wyoming by 6
The Cowboys needed every bit of a +4 turnover advantage to escape at home vs.
U.N.L.V., and a long trip in the middle of the conference season can lead to a flat
effort, especially with so much inexperience in the offensive huddle. F.A.U. 27-21.
UL-Monroe* over Florida International by 4
Those early trips to Texas and Arizona State helped Charlie Weatherbie’s squad
develop to the point at which they picked up a key road win to open conference
play, and that adds some spark for their return home. U.L.M. 27-23.
Troy* over Middle Tennessee State by 4 (Tuesday)
Although the recent scoreboards have been good for the Blue Raiders, turnovers
have played a major part, and we are still not sure that Dwight Dasher’s accuracy
makes the current offensive designs the ideal modes for his talents. TROY 34-30.
VOL 40/5 WED. OCTOBER 7, 2009
college
****BEST BET
ARKANSAS over TEXAS A&M by 21 (at Arlington)
We could not have asked for anything better from Saturday’s results involving these
two teams than what took place. We cashed that easy ticket with Alabama over
Arkansas on top of this page, while also getting Texas A&M home easily in that **
PREFERRED call. But adding even more pleasure to those game flows was the
way that this one was set up. Now we get to take the far superior team in a bargain
price range, largely because no one knows just how much better the Razorbacks
are. They were in against the wrong opponent at Alabama, but note that despite
getting out-classed on the scoreboard they never did back off at the line of scrimmage
– Terry Richardson broke a 52-yard TD run for the Crimson Tide, but on
all other running plays they were held to 82 yards on 40 attempts. Now Arkansas
steps down in class at the line of scrimmage, and any time that happens it means
that Ryan Mallett, Michael Smith and some talented WR’s can stretch the field in
Bobby Petrino’s playbook, with the acumen of the coach at putting playmakers in
position to make plays among the best in the land. That spells trouble for an Aggie
defense that was helpless against the better teams that they faced last year, and in
fact allowed 37.4 points and 462 yards over all games. We do not see any signs of
real improvement, especially from a pass rush that was non-existent, but a weak
schedule has kept that hidden. Now A&M gets fully exposed here vs. an opponent
that has grown up faster off of much tougher challenges. ARKANSAS 41-20.
***BEST BET
GEORGIA* over L.S.U. by 18
The perception here will be that L.S.U. is an “A” level program playing with
revenge, off of that 52-38 loss to these Bulldogs in Baton Rouge LY. That perception
puts this game in the wrong pointspread range, and gives us a chance to take
advantage of some serious weaknesses that Les Miles and his team bring to Athens.
Miles, of course, is the prime target, with his fifth season meaning that there are
no longer any Nick Saban recruits around, and this is not the same program he
inherited. It showed in last year’s disappointing 3-5 tally in the S.E.C. standings,
and despite being 4-0 so far this Tiger edition may be even weaker than that one.
Note that in those road wins at Washington and Mississippi State they trailed by
an amazing 17 first downs and 268 yards of total offense, and even those home
wins vs. Vanderbilt and UL-Lafayette were bereft of any real dominance.
Meanwhile Georgia brings the polish that the Tigers lack, and a case could be made
that every Bulldog opponent so far is better than any team that L.S.U. has faced.
Those edges in fundamentals and discipline between these programs have been
most evident in both Miles vs. Mark Richt battles so far, with Georgia winning by
a combined 34 points on the scoreboard and 35 vs. the pointspread. Over the
course of 60 minutes there is ample time for that to show again, especially with
L.S.U. not finding a lead direction either overland or through the air on offense so
far, a necessity if you are going to win “between the hedges”. GEORGIA 35-17.
**PREFERRED
Minnesota* over Wisconsin by 11
We are now in October, and Wisconsin has yet to leave Madison. While that does
help to pad the W/L record to insure at least a minor bowl bid later on, for a team
with a lot of young faces playing key roles that first trip can be a danger zone, and
the new atmosphere at Minnesota is exactly the kind of setting for a vulnerable
team to struggle. Note that the Badgers are unbeaten despite allowing both Fresno
State and Michigan State to roll for over 400 yards at Camp Randall Stadium, with
wins in those two games coming via a +6 turnover advantage. Now the weakest
Wisconsin defensive front in many seasons will have a difficult time getting leverage
on the road, and with the Minnesota ground game showing some signs of life
last week the Gophers can now balance their playbook. Note that Tim Brewster’s
crew took the Badgers to the max before falling 35-32 on the road last year, after
leading by 14 in the second half, and their edge in experience at QB with Adam
Weber takes them the full 60 minutes this time. MINNESOTA 31-20.
Clemson over Maryland* by 25
The last thing that Ralph Friedgen needs to run into right now is a physical opponent
coming in with a chip on their shoulder, but that is what he is up against here,
and there are no answers to be found. While the Terrapins will offer opponents
later in the season a chance to take a breather that is absolutely not the case this
week, with Clemson coming in wanting to not only spit the bitter taste of last
week’s tough loss to T.C.U., but there is also that matter of the ugly 20-17 home
loss to these Terrapins in Death Valley last year. It was the kind of giveaway that
can frustrate a team the most, with an 0-3 turnover differential turning a 17-6 halftime
lead into a 20-17 defeat, and that means not just getting a pound of flesh
here, but getting it in style. With next week off there is no holding back, and there
is also nothing that Maryland can do to hold them back – the Terps are basically
without a strength in any area, and that includes fundamentals, with 13 turnovers
already, three of them being returned for TD’s. CLEMSON 34-9.
Air Force over Navy* by 7
Sometimes we have to let the pendulums of sport work for us, and that is what we
have in this matchup, especially with Tim Jefferson returning at QB for Air Force
this week (the offense sputtered without him vs. San Diego State, but we will not
attach all that much significance to those numbers). In a series between programs
that are close to even, with the same kind of athletes on both sides of the ball and
similar playbooks, the current 6-0 SU run by the Midshipmen over the Falcons,
the longest in the history of the series, may simply be an anomaly. Those six wins
have come by a combined total of just 33 points, and there were few instances in
which Navy was clearly the better team; like last year’s 33-27 upset in Colorado
Springs, when two blocked punts for touchdowns negated a 411-244 deficit in
total offense. Every point being offered is valuable here in a game that should again
go to the final possession, but this time the Flyboys get their breakthrough, with
the superior defense keying the tactical battle. AIR FORCE 29-22.
Iowa* over Arkansas State by 10
Calling for an Iowa letdown here off of that physical win at Penn State is a natural,
as is the fact that next week’s home showdown with Michigan now looms at a
much higher level of significance. But what makes this even better is that the
Hawkeyes simply do not have the kind of explosiveness that we fear when dealing
with this pointspread range, so we are not subject to the underdog getting taken
out by a couple of big plays. Through 274 offensive snaps the biggest play that the
Iowa offense has made is only 43 yards, and this week looking for big plays is not
even the order of business – Kirk Ferentz will be more than content to grind it out
and work the clock, hoping to keep his starters as fresh as possible for bigger challenges
ahead. Meanwhile Arkansas State has some experienced playmakers in QB
Corey Leonard, RB Reggie Arnold, both seniors, and a veteran WR corps, and having
been to Nebraska, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and Auburn the last three seasons
there is no intimidation at this venue. IOWA 26-16.
*CLOSE CALLS
Louisiana Tech* over Hawaii by 6 (Wednesday)
Playing on the mainland for three straight weeks can take a toll on the young
Warrior defense. And the extra prep time is a tactical plus vs. the Hawaii playbook.
LOUISIANA TECH 33-27.
West Virginia* over Colorado by 18 (Thursday)
A bye week may help to get Jarrett Brown, Scooter Berry and Reed Williams
healthy, and note that the Mountaineers out-scored East Carolina and Auburn by
a combined 65-61 despite being -8 in turnovers. WEST VIRGINIA 35-17.
Southern Miss over U.A.B.* by 13 (Thursday)
The host Blazers can carry a chip on their shoulder after being embarrassed 70-14
on the Golden Eagle turf last year, but once again depth is the key issue, and it
shows in the latter stages.. SOUTHERN MISS 37-24.
Pittsburgh over Louisville* by 3 (Friday)
The Panther defense was on the field for 81 snaps on Saturday and eventually ran
out of gas. Having to travel again on a short practice week is not the easiest way to
recover from that level of fatigue. PITTSBURGH 27-24.
Brigham Young* over Utah State by 19 (Friday)
Diondre Borel is showing enough playmaking ability to make the Aggies dangerous
in this pointspread range, especially since this game is marked in bolder letters
on their calendar than for the host Cougars. B.Y.U. 41-22.
South Florida over Syracuse* by 4
B. J. Daniels made a terrific account of himself at Florida State last week, but when
some of that adrenaline wears off he will find that this Syracuse defensive front has
been rather gnarly so far this season. SOUTH FLORIDA 24-20.
East Carolina over Marshall* by 3
The inability of the Pirates to get anything going on the ground this season means
that nothing comes easily on the road, especially as Marshall is emerging to lead
Marshall. Darius, that is. EAST CAROLINA 24-21.
Purdue* over Northwestern by 6
With both teams running similar playbooks no one is supposed to fool anyone, so
it comes down to Ralph Bolden being the major edge, providing the Boilermakers
with a true lead RB that the Wildcats lack. PURDUE 30-24.
N. C. State over Wake Forest* by 4
Although starting a different OL in every game has led to some inconsistency, we
may have seen that group come of age in the second half against Pittsburgh with
those convincing late TD drives. N. C. STATE 28-24.
North Carolina* over Virginia by 16
Off of a bye week, will we see Virginia go back to those pro sets that were effective
vs. Southern Miss, or more of the spread that they were so dismal at running in
the opening weeks? It does make it tougher for Butch Davis to develop his defensive
game plan. NORTH CAROLINA 30-14.
Florida State over Boston College* by 9
Not only are the Seminoles the most erratic team in the nation so far this season,
but their roller coaster ride rivals any team in recent memory. Until that OL shows
the cohesion that was supposed to be their strength this fall, it may remain that
way. FLORIDA STATE 26-17.
Central Michigan over Buffalo* by 8
After benefitting far too much from favorable bounces last year, we find the Bulls
-10 in turnover differential through the end of November, and with the corresponding
change in scoreboard fortunes. And that is just the way that football
works. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 31-23.
Toledo over Ball State* by 7
Before getting excited about the points that Ball State put up at Auburn, note that
the Cardinals had only 260 yards on 74 snaps. The Rockets bring much more confidence
and better QB play to the conference opener. TOLEDO 31-24.
Alabama over Kentucky* by 19
You have to have some serious playmakers to be able to challenge the Alabama
defense this season. Outside of Randall Cobb, Kentucky has no others. ALABAMA
31-12.
Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 11
The early polls did not do Houston Nutt any favors in placing his Rebels at far too
lofty of a position, and that makes regaining their focus a challenge. But films of
last year’s 23-17 home loss to these Commodores, when six turnovers negated a
385-202 advantage in total offense, will help. MISSISSIPPI 27-16.
Cincinnati over Miami O.* by 36
The Bearcats will have far more fans at Yager Stadium than the “host”, and with
11 days off before playing again there is no reason to hold back, especially given
the new position in the polls. CINCINNATI 45-9.
Temple over Eastern Michigan* by 1
The Eastern bye week could not have come at a batter time, with QB Kyle
McMahon getting ample opportunity to work with the first-team after the loss of
starter Andy Schmitt. Unusual role for the Owls, who had a wretched offensive
game vs. Buffalo that did not show on the scoreboard. TEMPLE 24-23.
Army* over Tulane by 10
Things got so bad at Tulane during a bye two weeks ago that Bob Toledo stopped
a practice early and sent everyone home. The response? Allowing 32 points and
473 yards to McNeese State, continuing a pattern of all opponents going over 200
both running and passing so far. ARMY 34-24.
Virginia Tech over Duke* by 11
Hokies established themselves as the A.C.C. front-runners with that domination
of Miami, but margins are not going to come easily for a team that has not completed
50 percept of its passes in any game so far. VIRGINIA TECH 27-16.
Notre Dame* over Washington by 10
The Fighting Irish should have a healthier Jimmy Clausen this week, but this
defense can be challenged by exactly the kind of mobility that Jake Locker brings.
But the rest of the Huskies may only bring 45 minutes to a 60-minute game as visitors
this autumn. NOTRE DAME 37-27.
Georgia Tech over Mississippi State* by 5
The heartbreak of those closing moments vs. L.S.U. could have a lingering effect
on the Bulldogs, but this coaching staff should do a better tactical job vs. Paul
Johnson’s option than last year’s embarrassment in Atlanta, when they allowed 500
yards in a 38-7 drubbing. GEORGIA TECH 24-19.
Oklahoma over Miami F.* by 8
While so much focus is put on whether or not Sam Bradford can play this week,
we keep looking at how solid Landry Jones was vs. Tulsa, and the fact that he was
actually a more highly rated recruit coming out of high school than last year’s
Heisman Trophy winner. OKLAHOMA 31-23.
Penn State over Illinois* by 3
Both sides have to shake off major disappointments, and the edge in that category
should go to the home team, which was aiming at much lower targets, which are
still available. First road outing for that young Lion OL is also an issue. PENN
STATE 23-20.
Michigan State* over Michigan by 3
Although it is not much of a trip, it is still the first time that the Wolverines have
played anywhere other than their home turf. And as the season goes on, we may
find that those wins over Notre Dame and Indiana were supposed to be easier than
they were. MICHIGAN STATE 27-24.
Western Michigan over Northern Illinois* by 1
Tim Hiller is the kind of veteran field general that we like in the road underdog
role, and can make plays vs. a defense that just allowed Idaho to both run and pass
for over 200 yards on this field, without a turnover in 67 snaps. WESTERN
MICHIGAN 28-27.
Bowling Green* over Ohio by 3
When the talent is close, you have to be able to make some plays to cover as chalk.
A Falcon pass defense that has not intercepted a pass in 177 attempts so far is not
the poster child for making those plays. BOWLING GREEN 27-24.
Nevada* over U.N.L.V. by 8
What was supposed to be a season of promise in Reno has opened 0-3, largely
through a -9 turnover differential. But this in-state showdown can help them to
generate some needed spark, and note that they rolled for 620 yards in last year’s
49-27 win in Las Vegas. NEVADA 35-27.
Colorado State over Idaho* by 3
The Vandal numbers are very legit so far, and with Colorado State caught in
between a pair of conference games, the door is opened for another potential
break-through. COLORADO STATE 31-28.
Iowa State over Kansas State by 3 (at Kansas City)
We’re just not sure what the attraction is for downtrodden programs to play at a
neutral site, and there is no attraction to any handicap, except that the Cyclones
appear to be much further along in their redevelopment. Slightly, that is. IOWA
STATE 27-24.
Arizona State* over Oregon State by 6
A ball-hawking Arizona State pass defense has already come up with eight interceptions,
returning two of them for TD’s, and that means the chance to make some
game-turning plays against Sean Canfield. Now if only the Sun Devils had an
offense that we could trust. ARIZONA STATE 27-21.
Oregon* over Washington State by 36
Off of that impressive thrashing of Cal, and with a trip to U.C.L.A. on deck, Chip
Kelly is allowed to be a gentleman here. Having the Cougars in your conference is
like getting a second bye week. OREGON 45-9.
Baylor* over Kent State by 17
Losing Robert Griffin for the full season is not just a blow in terms of his contributions
on the field, but a crippling loss from a team morale standpoint. But the
Bears can still at least handle the inept offense of this opponent. BAYLOR 30-13.
Central Florida* over Memphis by 5
Early results are making it look like Conference USA will be a road dog bonanza
this season, and this setting fits the bill – there is nothing daunting about a largely
empty stadium, or the punchless Golden Knight offense. U.C.F. 27-22.
Stanford* over U.C.L.A. by 6
The Bruins do not have Kevin Prince slated for a return at QB yet, which means
that this game should be decided by the better ground game. Note that the
Cardinal controlled the line of scrimmage to a 250-86 edge last year despite losing
23-20 on the scoreboard. STANFORD 27-21.
Texas Tech* over New Mexico by 40
Off of back-to-back frustrating defeats we can expect Mike Leach to be in an
ornery mood this week, which is bad news for an opponent that can not slow down
the onslaught in any way. TEXAS TECH 56-16.
Ohio State over Indiana* by 18
The Hoosiers actually made the Michigan defense look slow in rolling to 467 yards
at Ann Arbor last week. Now they’ll have to face off against a much swifter opponent,
and one that will come in more than forewarned off of last week’s films.
OHIO STATE 31-13.
Tulsa over Rice* by 17
Even with Chase Clement at the helm the Owls were drubbed 63-28 on the road
in this matchup last year, and the muddled QB picture does not make it any easier
this time around. TULSA 41-24.
Auburn over Tennessee* by 1
The first road outing brings all of the usual issues along for the ride with an
Auburn team that has not had to face this class of defense yet. But much better
offensive personnel still merit the SU nod. AUBURN 24-23.
Southern Cal over California* by 4
We will rate the Trojans as the team more likely to come with the right focus
between two teams off to disappointing starts, but that stodgy offense prevents us
from pushing this higher on the page, where it would have been in other seasons.
SOUTHERN CAL 27-23.
T.C.U.* over S.M.U. by 29
The Mustangs have already turned the ball over 11 times, with three of them being
returned for TD’s, despite facing defenses that are nowhere near the class of what
they are up against this week. T.C.U. got a Pick Six in last year’s 48-7 win, and is
no worse than even money to get another defensive score this time around. T.C.U.
45-16.
San Diego State* over New Mexico State by 18
Downtrodden Aggies have to leave the state for the first time, and might still be
celebrating that tense win over New Mexico on Saturday night. When you do not
win often, you are allowed such celebrations. SAN DIEGO STATE 34-16.
Houston over U.T.E.P.* by 10
A rare case of a team having a letdown in the conference opener off of bigger
doings outside of the league, but until we decipher just why this Miner offense is
misfiring so badly we do not want any part of the “situation” this provides. HOUSTON
38-28.
Florida Atlantic* over Wyoming by 6
The Cowboys needed every bit of a +4 turnover advantage to escape at home vs.
U.N.L.V., and a long trip in the middle of the conference season can lead to a flat
effort, especially with so much inexperience in the offensive huddle. F.A.U. 27-21.
UL-Monroe* over Florida International by 4
Those early trips to Texas and Arizona State helped Charlie Weatherbie’s squad
develop to the point at which they picked up a key road win to open conference
play, and that adds some spark for their return home. U.L.M. 27-23.
Troy* over Middle Tennessee State by 4 (Tuesday)
Although the recent scoreboards have been good for the Blue Raiders, turnovers
have played a major part, and we are still not sure that Dwight Dasher’s accuracy
makes the current offensive designs the ideal modes for his talents. TROY 34-30.
Nelly's Greensheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RATING 5 GEORGIA (-2½) over Lsu
RATING 4 UCLA (+6) over Stanford
RATING 3 MARSHALL (+3) over East Carolina
RATING 2 ALABAMA (-17½) over Kentucky
RATING 2 VANDERBILT (+10) over Mississippi
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA (-6½) over Miami
RATING 1 IDAHO (+3½) over Colorado State
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
LOUISIANA TECH (-4) Hawaii 7:00 PM
The Bulldogs won eight games last season and projected as a competitive team again this
season but in early non-conference games as appealing underdogs Tech fell well short. The
Bulldogs picked up a win against FCS Nicholls State and they seek to beat Hawaii for the first
time since 2005 in this midweek game. During Hawaii’s 2007 perfect regular season the
Warriors narrowly escaped Ruston with a 45-44 win the last time Tech hosted this match-up.
Hawaii is the top passing offense in the nation in terms of yards per game but Tech’s
opposition has preferred to run the ball this season. This will technically be the third
consecutive road game for Hawaii though they did not play last week. Louisiana Tech has
historically held a great home field advantage in recent years but most of that success has
come in an underdog role. Hawaii may have more wins but Louisiana Tech should be the
superior team and last season despite losing at Hawaii the Bulldogs had good production and
held Hawaii to limited yardage through the air but turnovers proved costly. LA TECH BY 10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2009
WEST VIRGINIA (-17½) Colorado 6:30 PM
Turnovers killed West Virginia in its last game as they thoroughly out-gained Auburn on the
road before giving the game away late. Through three games and two quality opponents the
Mountaineers have averaged 485 yards per game on offense but they also have one of the
worst turnover margins in the nation. Colorado beat West Virginia last season in Boulder in
overtime in a game where the Mountaineers rushed for 311 yards but scored just 14 points.
Colorado endured a disastrous 0-2 start but the Buffaloes rebounded in its last game with a
shutout win over Wyoming. Statistically Colorado has one of the worst defenses in the nation
and although they have not faced a FCS squad like many teams have they have not faced
any powerhouse major conference programs either. West Virginia should have a big day on
the ground and even though the Mountaineers have suffered from questionable coaching
decisions and turnovers they should be the superior team. WEST VIRGINIA BY 21
Southern Miss (NL) UAB 7:00 PM
The Golden Eagles gave Kansas a run last week as the game was tied late but eventually
Southern Miss faded in a fairly even statistical game. Southern Miss allowed 32 first downs in
the game and this will be difficult second-straight road game following a narrow loss in a big
non-conference game. Southern Miss scored 70 on UAB last season so there is no doubt that
the Blazers will be motivated for a better performance this year. UAB was blown out last week
at Texas A&M although the Blazers rushed for 229 yards in the match-up. UAB had an
encouraging opening win but has now lost three straight games while allowing 480 yards per
game for the season. Southern Miss has a talented team that should be among the
contenders in Conference USA but this looks like a tricky spot, traveling again in a game that
would be easy to overlook after last year’s result and a more distinguished game with
Louisville up next. UAB has posted strong rushing numbers so they could be competitive here
as inflated underdog coming off a bad performance. SOUTHERN MISS BY 10
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2009
Pittsburgh (NL) LOUISVILLE 7:00 PM
Louisville’s offense has fallen on tough times, a far cry from the unit that posted huge numbers
a few years ago. Louisville’s defense has held up well but the Cardinals are scoring less than
24 points per game. Louisville has been on the road against quality competition the last two
weeks and this will be another tough game but back at home. Pittsburgh led by 14 late in the
game last week at NC State but it was a game that the Panthers were thoroughly out-gained
in and eventually the lead slipped away. Pittsburgh won 41-7 at home last season but that
was the only S/U win for the Panthers in this series since ’90. Turnovers were the big factor in
that match-up last season and Pittsburgh has had a big turnov er edge this season through
four games. Although Louisville’s offense has not been productive there has been
disappointing numbers from Pitt as well who seems to be missing the key pieces of the
running game that had great success last season. LOUISVILLE BY 3
BYU (-24½) Utah State 8:00 PM
The Cougars rebounded from their horrible loss to Florida State with a win last week but BYU
was actually out-gained against Colorado State allowing 372 passing yards. Utah State picked
up its first win of the season last week against FCS Souther Utah and though the offense
turned it over three times, the Aggies also had over 600 yards. Utah State gave up at least 34
points for the third straight game however. Last season BYU won 34-14 but Utah State was
able to move the ball effectively in that game. BYU has not performed well in the ATS role as
a favorite and this may be a spread that is too big to surpass. BYU has struggled with
turnovers and defending the pass and Utah State is going to score a few times. BYU BY 21
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2009
South Florida (-7) SYRACUSE 11:00 AM
It looked like an impossible situation with a new QB going against Florida State but the Bulls
capitalized on turnovers and made a few big plays to score an upset and one of the biggest
wins in the program’s history. South Florida’s defense was exceptional against the run but this
could be a very tricky situation coming off such a big win. South Florida has won easily in all
four years in the Big East against Syracuse but so far this year the Orange has shown some
potential. Syracuse has faced a tough opening slate of games and at 2-2 coming off an FCS
win last week this is a team with some confidence. Syracuse has been a difficult team to run
against so inexperienced QB Daniels will have to make some plays this will be a whole new
situation playing in a dome. The Orange has been a quality home underdog in recent years
and the points make sense in this letdown spot. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 6
East Carolina (-3) MARSHALL 11:00 AM
The Pirates hung on for a win last week in a sloppy game but East Carolina is yet to cover in a
game this season. Marshall is now quietly 3-1 after back-to-back excellent defensive
performances. For the second straight week the Thundering Herd put over 240 rushing yards
while allowing 16 points or less. That formula would be a great recipe for success in
Conference USA and the Herd will face a favorable conference schedule. During East
Carolina’s run to the conference title last season, a 19-16 OT win over Marshall was one of
several narrow wins for the Pirates. The home team has had success in this series and
Marshall has been a high quality home underdog in recent years covering in ten of the last
twelve instances. This is the homecoming game for Marshall and ECU may not be able to
sneak out this win coming in a third road game in four weeks. MARSHALL BY 4
PURDUE (-7) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Both teams played well enough to win last week but were bitten by late rallies. The loser of
this game will be in rough shape with some of the tougher games ahead on the schedule.
Northwestern covered in all three games as road underdogs last season and the Wildcats
soundly defeated Purdue last year winning 48-26 although Purdue produced more yards.
Defensively Northwestern has much better numbers but Purdue has faced a far tougher
schedule and there will be some extra excitement in West Lafayette for the Big Ten opener
that is also homecoming. Although Purdue has only won once they have been more
impressive outside of the upset loss to Northern Illinois as Notre Dame and Oregon will likely
have impressive resumes by season’s end. Purdue has featured better balance on offense
this season as Northwestern has been one-dimensional and the defensive numbers for the
Wildcats are watered down with a dominant effort against FCS Towson. PURDUE BY 10
MINNESOTA (-2½) Wisconsin 11:00 AM
Wisconsin is now 4-0 and after three uninspiring wins the Badgers finally put together a strong
overall performance last week for a win that was not as close as the final margin suggests. On
the other hand Minnesota added a late score to inflate what was a hard fought road win. This
will be the first Big Ten game at the Bank and Minnesota has battled through a tough early
season schedule and is sitting in good shape with a 3-1 record. Having already played two
outstanding rushing teams should help the Gophers defensively and Wisconsin has shown
some weaknesses in defending the pass. Minnesota can feature a great air attack and the
running game showed some promise last week as well. Last year star WR Decker missed this
game for Minnesota yet the Gophers nearly pulled off the upset falling by just three. Three of
the last four years of this long rivalry have featured great games but this looks like a spot
where the Badgers may be exposed and a match-up where Minnesota can take advantage of
a few opportunities while catching an overrated Badger squad. MINNESOTA BY 10
WAKE FOREST (PK) NC State 2:30 PM
These teams both led fourth quarter rallies last week but only one team was victorious as NC
State posted huge numbers to win last week at home and Wake Forest lost in OT. After
horrendous offensive numbers in the opening week the Wolfpack have turned into a
juggernaut with 148 points scored in the last three games. NC State has the top statistical
defense in the nation allowing just 201 yards per game but two games came against FCS
competition. NC State won 21-17 at home last season against Wake Forest with a comeback
win but the Demon Deacons won easily the last time these teams met in Winston-Salem.
Wake Forest has had success in this series and the recent numbers as home favorites are
actually favorable even though going back a few years further there are some ugly trends for
Wake in that role. Defensively Wake is allowing just over 18 points per game while playing
three of four games against high quality bowl caliber opponents. WAKE BY 6
Clemson (-14) MARYLAND 11:00 AM
Maryland’s loss at home last week was not as bad as the 21-point margin suggests but the
numbers do not lie as the Terps are allowing 38 points per game. Maryland has turned the ball
over 13 times in four games and that has been a key difference from a team that won several
close games last year. Clemson is 2-2 but there have been no easy games on the schedule
and the Tigers blew out a Middle Tennessee State team that beat Maryland two weeks ago.
Clemson had its chances to win last week but ultimately fell short. The Clemson defense
should dominate this match-up and although the offense has struggled the last two weeks the
conditions have played a significant role. Maryland has not come close to covering this
season and they are too mistake-prone to trust. CLEMSON BY 21
NORTH CAROLINA (-14) Virginia 11:00 AM
Virginia led a miraculous comeback last year to win in a series they have had recent
dominance in. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this game while UNC looks to
regroup after a dismal performance in Atlanta where the team produced a total of just eight
first downs. The Cavaliers are 0-3 so this will be a critical game and although UNC is a well
regarded squad but the offensive numbers have been poor with only 307 yards per game
including two games with twelve or fewer points scored. The Tar Heels have performed well at
home and this is not a Virginia squad that has exhibited much ability to score against a quality
defense. Expect the Heels to get revenge and redeem last week’s poor effort. UNC BY 17
Florida State (-5) BOSTON COLLEGE 11:00 AM
Florida State has been incredibly inconsistent as they are 2-2 but own one of the most
impressive wins of the season in a destruction of BYU two weeks ago. FSU should have beat
Miami in the opener but they have had two awful letdown performances following big games,
nearly losing to Jacksonville State and last week being upset at home against South Florida
and a QB making his first ever start. The defensive numbers are mostly good for the
Seminoles but they have been burned by allowing big plays. Boston College lacks a big play
offense and the Eagles still have major questions at QB but BC is 3-1 coming off a big win last
week at home. The home team has failed to cover each of the last four years in this series
and Boston College has overvalued defensive statistics. BC beat two weak opponents
soundly and then played Clemson in game with awful weather before last week’s narrow
escape. Florida State has really not proven they can get it done. FSU BY 3
Central Michigan (-8½) BUFFALO 2:30 PM
The Chippewas took care of business in the opening MAC game, delivering an impressive
ground effort with 326 yards. Last season Central Michigan snuck by Buffalo for a 2-point
victory in an evenly matched game but the Chippewas look like the stronger squad this
season. Buffalo had an impressive road win to start the season but has now lost three in a row
S/U and ATS. The Bulls out-gained their opponent significantly in two of those three losses
but Buffalo has been falling behind early and forcing the ball in the air. Central Michigan will
have the advantage if this game becomes a shootout and the Bulls are surprisingly just 2-6
ATS in the last eight home games. Buffalo has played a tough schedule and this will be just
the second home game but the inability to run the ball and stop the run should allow Central
Michigan to pull away for a critical road win in conference play . CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 14
Toledo (-7) BALL STATE 11:00 AM
Toledo has played an extremely tough schedule and is 2-2 despite being an underdog in all
four games. The Rockets are averaging 473 yards per game but the defens e is also allowing
nearly 40 points per game. Ball State had an undefeated regular season last year but now is
on its way to a winless season with a 0-4 start. Ball State also has terrible defensive numbers
but with the exception of the last game against Auburn the Cardinals have played a fairly
weak schedule. Turnovers have been a big issue for Ball State but the pass defense has been
respectable, in part because they have been easy to run against. Ball State beat Toledo 31-0
last season, out-gaining the Rockets by 325 yards but this year Toledo looks like the more
promising team. Ball State has covered the last two weeks and this could be a bad spot for
Toledo facing a second straight road games and likely playing as a significant road favorite
despite serious defensive liabilities. Ball State clearly has some problems and it has been a
slow transition but there has been improvement shown. TOLEDO BY 7
Alabama (-17½) KENTUCKY 11:20 AM
The Crimson Tide stay in the top three as several teams nearby in the ranking lost last week
and it could be argued that Alabama has the best four-game resume in the nation including
two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Arkansas. Alabama has not played on the road
yet and they will play the same match-up that #1 Florida had no problem with last week. Last
season Alabama barely got by Kentucky, winning 17-14 but the statistical edges were
significant. Last week’s poor effort for Kentucky came on the heels of a big rivalry win so a
better effort could be in order this week. The Tide has performed as road favorites and the
one missed cover for Alabama was still a 24-point win that was never in question. Kentucky
had less than 180 yards on offense last week and Alabama’s defense looks just as strong as
Florida’s and statistically it has been almost identical through a higher quality schedule. Look
for Alabama to keep earning respect in the polls and Kentucky will have a hard time staying
close in this game as they will be forced to pass early and often. Alabama could make a
strong case for being the top team in the nation and it would be wise to avoid trying to beat the
Tide until they show more vulnerability. ALABAMA BY 27
Mississippi (-10) VANDERBILT 6:00 PM
Ole Miss lost as the #4 team in the nation last week but the Rebels got that ranking based on
expectations and not on actual merit. Mississippi has solid defensive numbers but they have
played just three games and they will now face a second straight road game coming off a
disappointing primetime loss. Vanderbilt rebounded from back-to-back disappointing losses to
get back to 2-2 with a win at Rice but the Commodores have really struggled to score against
SEC competition with twelve points in two games. Vanderbilt has some of the best defensive
numbers against the pass this season and though the opposition has factored into that the Ole
Miss offense has not been smooth operation so far this season despite the returning talent in
place. Ole Miss has covered just once in the last ten meetings in this series so it could be a
difficult situation. Ole Miss was facing national expectations and to have an early season loss
could take a lot out of this team. Vanderbilt has beat Ole Miss each of the last two seasons
S/U and QB Snead had four picks in this game last year. OLE MISS BY 3
Cincinnati (-27½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
These nearby schools have gone in opposite directions in recent years and Cincinnati has
rightfully risen in the standings with a 4-0 start. Cincinnati is averaging 43 points per game
while allowing just 14 points per game three of the four games have come against quality
opponents, with two games played on the road. Last week Fresno State rushed for 290 yards
against the Bearcats and Cincinnati has also benefited from a great turnover margin so there
are still some concerns with this team. Against Miami it is unlikely that there will be much of a
struggle however as the Redhawks are 0-4 while allowing over 41 points per game and failing
to cover in all four games. A big conference game against South Florida is on the schedule
next but there still is enough of a regional rivalry to keep the intensity level high for this matchup.
Cincinnati has won by 25 and 37 the past two years in this series and Miami is just 4-12
ATS in the last 16 lined home games. Miami has the worst turnover margin in the nation with
16 giveaways and only three takeaways so if the turnover numbers bounce Miami will have a
chance to stay close here but Cincinnati has too explosive of an offense to try to beat in what
should be a mismatch if the Bearcats come into the game motivated. CINCINNATI BY 31
Temple (-5) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
In a valiant effort against Michigan two weeks ago Eastern Michigan QB Andy Schmitt was
injured and he will be unable to finish the season. Eastern Michigan is 0-3 on the season and
the rest of the season will be an even greater challenge although there should be some more
even match-ups coming in conference play. Eastern Michigan currently owns the #1 pass
defense in the nation but is meaningless as the Eagles have faced three teams that have
preferred to run and running on EMU has not been difficult. Temple opened the season with a
loss to Villanova that may look bad to an outside observer but the Wildcats should be one of
the top FCS teams and could probably compete well in the MAC. The Owls played
respectably against Penn State and everything came together last week for a big revenge win
against Buffalo. Temple caught breaks with turnovers last week but they also had great
success moving the ball on the ground which should make for a favorable match-up this week.
Eastern Michigan is just 4-11 ATS in the past 15 home games but the Eagles will catch value
this week facing a Temple team off a misleading big win. TEMPLE BY 3
ARMY (-6) Tulane 11:00 AM
Army looked like a dangerous underdog last week against Iowa State but despite an even
statistical performance the Cadets were 21-point losers. Army’s rushing attack has posted
strong numbers and with two wins early in the year and a favorable schedule ahead this is a
team with bowl potential. Tulane was caught in mismatches to start the season losing badly to
BYU and Tulsa but last week the Wave got in the win column with a win over McNeese State.
Tulane won by ten on the scoreboard but allowed 473 yards. Tulane has allow ed 41 points
and 470 yards per game for the season and this will be the first road game of the season so
the early results have not been promising. Army is a difficult team to trust as a favorite
however as the one-dimensional offense is not likely to create quick scores or big plays. In
four games Army has averaged just 20 points per game which makes covering as a favorite
difficult even if the defense plays well. Both of Army’s wins came against MAC teams and this
should be a small step up in competition. ARMY BY 3
Virginia Tech (-17) DUKE 11:00 AM
The Hokies reaffirmed their position as the team to beat in the ACC even though some other
squads had seemingly gained some ground. Tech was completely dominant against Miami
last week and with the only loss being a competitive effort against Alabama, the Hokies can
make a solid case as a top ranked team. Virginia Tech will be favored in every game the rest
of the way and the Hokies do not have to play Florida State or Clemson in a very favorable
ACC schedule. This could be a bit of a flat spot following a big game but last season Duke
played close with Virginia Tech and the Blue Devils will not be overlooked. Duke won last
week against FCS NC Central and some decent statistical figures from the Devils should not
be give too much weight as two lower division foes have been among the four games played.
Alabama and Nebraska had success against the Hokies on the ground but Duke is not a
quality rushing team which will make this a difficult match-up. Even though Duke should have
trouble competing here, the Blue Devils have made a lot of progress from a few years ago and
this will be an inflated line after the Hokies crushed a Miami team that the media was
enamored with. If Duke can avoid turnovers they will likely stay close. VIRGINIA TECH BY 14
NOTRE DAME (-13½) Washington 2:30 PM
The Irish creamed Washington last season in a game that was more lopsided than the final
score probably represented as the yardage margin was 335 and Washington’s lone
touchdown came with just a few minutes to go. Things have changed this year however and
Washington has already done the one thing that Notre Dame has not been able to do in
recent years by beating USC. Notre Dame won on the ground in last year’s game and they
may need to do so again this week as the passing game appeared limited by the injuries last
week in a narrow escape. It has been three straight weeks of down to the wire games for the
Irish it given the health issues already present this could be a tough week for the team.
Washington letdown true to form last week against Stanford and turnovers and an inability to
stop the run proved costly. Statistically Washington has struggled on defense but the Huskies
have also played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. Washington has lost five in a row in
this series but this looks like a good bounce back opportunity and Notre Dame has struggled
as a small favorite in recent years particularly at home. NOTRE DAME BY 7
GEORGIA (-2½) Lsu 2:30 PM
Like Mississippi last week, LSU has risen to the top 5 in the rankings without much weight in
its resume. LSU has won both of its road games this season but they have failed to cover and
actually have been severely out-gained in both instances. Last week LSU had a 4-0 turnover
edge but gained just 12 first downs and needed a miraculous goal line stand to hold of
Mississippi State. This will be a second straight week on the road and the offense has not
been able to deliver consistent results. Last week QB Jordan Jefferson had a career best
passing day but it is telling that he had just 233 yards and this Tigers offense is not close to
the national championship teams of years past. Georgia has played a simply insane schedule
with SEC games under its belt and two marquee major conference non-conference games.
The Bulldogs already have a loss and the statistics have not been pretty but this is a team that
is more battle tested than just about any team in the country. Last season Georgia won in a
shootout and if that time of game ensues again the Bulldogs have the edge. GEORGIA BY 14
NAVY (NL) Air Force 2:30 PM
Navy has had much more recent success in this series but it has often been in an underdog
role. The opening effort against Ohio State has left Navy a bit overvalued since and Navy has
failed to cover the last two weeks. Without QB Jefferson last week the Falcons won with ease
although the defense created most of the big plays with six turnovers. Air Force had a huge
yardage edge in last season’s game yet lost by six so this will be a paybac k game even with
the long travel. Air Force has not played a tough schedule but this has been a very good
defensive team that could have some advantages this week although the offense will be
suspect unless the QB situation is back to normal. Navy struggled to pull away from Western
Kentucky last week and the defense has some clear problems up front. AIR FORCE BY 4
Georgia Tech (-4½) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
Last week Mississippi State had a highly ranked LSU team on the ropes and fell just short but
it has been back-to-back encouraging efforts from this Bulldogs squad. LSU crushed Georgia
Tech in last year’s bowl game though it makes little sense to compare those situations. The
Yellow Jackets played their best game of the season last week in a dominant w in over North
Carolina and turnovers shaped some of the early momentum in that game. Georgia Tech has
Florida State up next and so far this is a team that has not been able to sustain consistent
efforts week -to-week. Georgia Tech is going to have success running the ball but efforts of the
MSU defense have been noticed as LSU had just 30 yards on the ground and could not move
the ball late with an opportunity to seal the game. Two weeks ago Vanderbilt has just 33 yards
rushing as the Bulldogs have addressed the problems they had against Auburn. In a
misleading final Tech won 38-7 last year but MSU had 23 first downs in the game and lost
with four turnovers despite 407 yards. Expect a close game here. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
Oklahoma (-6½) MIAMI, FL 11:00 AM
The U was supposedly back but Virginia Tech still owns the ACC as Miami looked much less
impressive with constant pressure. Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game
and though the QB situation is murky still, this game will be about defense. Value w ill be gone
on the Sooners after an overrated Miami team was exposed last week but for the season
Oklahoma has allowed just 14 points for the top scoring defense in the nation. The offense for
the Sooners will face a stiffer test this week but Miami has been mediocre at best on defense
with one good game and two lousy defensive efforts, albeit through a very tough schedule.
Two years ago Oklahoma cruised to a 51-13 win in Norman against Miami. The Hurricanes
had just 139 yards in that game and it will be tough to move the ball this week. Miami is just 2-
8 ATS in the last ten home games while Oklahoma has been a startlingly strong road favorite
the past two years. Miami got its wake-up call last week but this is a team that is still vastly
overrated while Oklahoma is hungry for a big win that will get some attention on the national
picture. Miami is facing a big scheduling disadvantage with all the big games early while OU
has been keying in on this opportunity since the opening loss while playing with two weeks to
prepare specifically for this game. OKLAHOMA BY 7
Penn State (-6½) ILLINOIS 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions were supposed to be the savior for a weak Big Ten but that baton was
passed to Iowa as the Lions were upset in rough weather at home. Illinois was expected to the
be the sleeper team in the conference but so far the Illini can make a strong case as the
biggest disappointment in the nation with lopsided losses in its two biggest games. Even in its
FCS win Illinois allowed a lot of yardage and this has been a poor defensive team that has
completely failed on offense after a highly productive but losing 2008 season. Illinois has been
a dangerous underdog in recent years and Penn State could suffer a letdown from losing its
undefeated season. This will be the first road game of the year for Penn State and the Lions
are 0-4 ATS on the season and the strong statistics came against a very weak nonconference
schedule. It is very tough to trust Illinois here as they have shown absolutely
nothing this season but the two big losses both came away from home and this could be a
favorable situation if the team has any life left. Penn State will likely still get a lot of play this
week even though they have proved nothing this season. ILLINOIS BY 4
Michigan (PK) MICHIGAN STATE 11:00 AM
The Wolverines got all it could handle as a big favorite against Illinois last week and this will
be the first trip away from Ann Arbor all season for a very young team. The Michigan defense
can clearly be scored upon but the offense has been able to do enough to win while averaging
240 rushing yards per game. After a great 2008 season Michigan State is sitting at 1-3 and
the schedule is not getting any easier. The Spartans won in Ann Arbor last season dominating
the statistics but it was the first win in this series since ’01. While the Wolverines were
impressive in non-conference play they struggled in the Big Ten opener and are just 1-7 ATS
the past eight conference games. The QB situation has been much more promising for the
Wolverines but there were some mistakes last week and this is a team that is still reliant on
the running game. The Spartans could not stop Wisconsin on the ground last week and
Michigan appears to be in position for a rebound after surviving last week. Last week’s loss for
Michigan State was not as close as the final margin suggested. MICHIGAN BY 7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6½) Western Michigan 2:30 PM
Northern Illinois fell into a classic letdown last week as they could not sustain the momentum
after upsetting Purdue. Idaho is a greatly improved team but the Huskies fell behind early and
were completely outplayed at home. Another home opportunity is waiting this week and this
will be a key battle in the MAC standings as these are the two teams most likely to unseat the
favorite Central Michigan in the West. After losses to two Big ten teams Western Michigan has
had back-to-back wins and the Broncos can put up big numbers in the air which should be a
concern after Idaho passed with great efficiency last week. Northern Illinois should be the
superior rushing team which may be a key advantage for a home underdog. NIU has had
great success in this series, covering in nine of the last eleven meetings and the Western
defense had trouble containing Hofstra last week so there could be some issues. NIU BY 7
BOWLING GREEN (-2½) Ohio 3:00 PM
The Bobcats gave Tennessee a tough game last week and this could be a tough situation
facing another road game and going against a Bowling Green team hungry for a win after
three consecutive losses. The Falcons have played a tough schedule and few teams have
been able to compete with Boise State. Ohio’s wins came against a Cal-Poly team going
through transition and a North Texas team that lost its QB but the losses have been
impressive, staying close with Connecticut earlier this season as well. This will be the third
road game in four weeks however and Bowling Green has won and covered in six of the last
seven meetings. Last season the Falcons severely out-gained the Bobcats for an easy win
and Bowling Green could be undervalued coming off a blowout loss. Both teams have failed to
rush the ball effectively this year and Ohio may be out of gas even though the Bobcats have
shown more potential and probably will be the better team . BOWLING GREEN BY 7
NEVADA (-4) Unlv 3:05 PM
Last week the Wolf Pack played as rare underdogs that severely out-rushed its opponent but
lost and failed to cover, at home no less. Nevada is 0-3 in a season that had fairly high
expectations but the schedule has been tough and the conference season is still wide open.
UNLV has played three consecutive nail-bitter games and the Rebels have come up short in
two of those three games including the conference opener last week. Nevada has won and
covered each of the last four meetings between these teams and last year the Wolf Pack
posted over 600 yards in the game. Although Nevada missed the cover last week they are 19-
8-1 at home since ’04 and UNLV will have a hard time playing another big game on the road.
Nevada has given up serious passing yardage this season but the defense does get pressure
on the quarterback and can force some mistakes in a favorable match-up. NEVADA BY 10
Colorado State (-3½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
Reputation makes the Rams a favorite in this match-up but Idaho has been the more
impressive team. Colorado State did out-gain BYU in a loss last week and the Rams have
solid wins over Nevada and Colorado on the season. Colorado State allowed a lot of yards
however and this will be the second straight week on the road while coming off a big
conference opener. Idaho is now 3-1 and although it has not been an overwhelming schedule
the Vandals have a pretty good team this year. QB play is the best it has been in years and
two of the three wins came in road games, something almost unthinkable in past seasons.
Colorado State has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites while Idaho has
gone 8-2 in the last ten as underdogs. Idaho has featured an impressive passing offense while
holding its own on defense. Idaho is 4-0 ATS on the season and Colorado State could get
caught looking ahead to Utah the following week as Idaho is a program that has had little
recent success. This will be a huge opportunity for Idaho with a nationally televised game at
home and the Vandals will deliver. IDAHO BY 7
Iowa State (-3) Kansas State @Kansas City, MO 2:00 PM
Kansas State features an attractive schedule this season but the Wildcats have not proven
good enough to take advantage as there are already two losses on the board. Iowa State is
very quietly 3-1 and the loss to Iowa seems forgivable at this point. The Cyclones have been
solid on defense and in the one loss they were burned by turnovers. ISU is also rushing for
207 yards per game which should pay dividends in the Big XII schedule. K-State is allowing
just 16 points per game but the schedule has featured two FCS foes and a Sun Belt team that
actually beat the Wildcats. Kansas State won in this series last season by eight but the
Cyclones posted 628 yards in that game but a 3-0 turnover margin proved costly. This year’s
game will be at a neutral site in Kansas City and Iowa State fans should be well represented
as it is just about a three hour trip from Ames, only slightly further than from Manhattan. This
looks like a better scheduling spot for the Cyclones who may be the better team anyhow. As
Kansas State has inflated statistics. IOWA STATE BY 10
ARIZONA STATE (-4½) Oregon State 6:00 PM
Both Pac-10 squads were losers last week in close games and Oregon State was a two-point
winner in this series last season. The ASU passing game has been very inefficient this season
but the Sun Devil defense has impressed. A weak early season schedule created great
numbers on defense for ASU but last week’s effort against Georgia backed up that this is
going to be a tough team to score on as the Bulldogs were held in check. The ASU offense
has done little however, even in two light early season games and the Sun Devils have been
fortunate with the top turnover margin in the nation. Oregon State has now lost two straight
games, both at home where there used to be a dominant home field edge. OSU has a strong
rush defense but this is a team that has been unreliable and actually are very close to being
on a 3-game win streak as they were lucky to beat UNLV. Arizona State has had great
success in this series and last week’s commendable effort against a quality SEC team should
build some confidence. ASU has also been an exceptional home favorite in recent years while
the Beavers are facing long trav el after a tough loss. ARIZONA STATE BY 7
OREGON (-31) Washington State 8:15 PM
In one of the more shocking results of the week Oregon crushed a Cal team that was gaining
a serious national buzz. The Ducks have played an incredibly tough schedule and an ugly
opening loss may pay dividends as it all came together last week. Oregon has disappointed
offensively but the Ducks posted over 500 yards last week in a complete rout of the Bears.
Expecting a repeat gem performance is asking a lot but Washington State is a good foe to
improve on offensive statistics. The Cougars played very respectably against USC last week
to easily cover despite minimal offensive output. The defense was not a complete sieve as in
the past so there were some encouraging signs. Statistically there is little to like about what
the Cougars have done and Oregon has proven to have an excellent home field in any
situation. Oregon will be overvalued off such a convincing win but Washington State may also
get a little more respect this week as well. Oregon has seen some tough stretches on defense
but this is a team on the rise that should see the numbers climb. OREGON BY 35
BAYLOR (NL) Kent State 6:00 PM
After a rough loss against Connecticut, Baylor rebounded with a blowout win last week,
dominating both sides of the ball against Northwestern State. Kent pulled away for a win and
cover last week but the Flashes were out-gained 552-250 against Miami, Ohio. Kent
completed just five passes last week but also picked up five turnovers and received a kickoff
return touchdown. Statistically few teams have been as bad on offense as Kent, scoring just
17 points per game and producing just 268 yards per game. The schedule has not been
exceptionally difficult either as there have been three home games. Baylor plays Oklahoma
next but this is not a program that can overlook a win opportunity. The Bears failed in their last
attempt as home favorites but that has been a profitable role in recent years while Kent has
struggled in almost every situation away from home. Baylor needs to win big in a game like
this to prove it has taken the next step and Kent should struggle to keep up. Baylor is a
difficult team to pass against and the Bears are coming off a great performance on both sides
of the ball last week but QB Griffin’s injury makes this tough. BAYLOR BY 24
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-8) Memphis 2:30 PM
Central Florida has covered in every game this season and this is a sound defensive team
that is allowing just over 21 points per game. Memphis is just 1-3 with a lone FCS win and the
Tigers are yet to cover in a game this season. Central Florida has won S/U in this series each
of the last five years and but the Knights have scored 26 points or more in each of those
meetings, something they have done just once all season. Memphis has not been a great
defensive team in recent years but this is a squad that normally can score some points and
that may happen as the schedule plays out the next few weeks. UCF is already 0-2 in
conference play so this will be a critical gam e but the Knights are not an easy team to trust
laying points at home and Central Florida was fortunate to cover last week with a late score in
game they never were a serious threat in. Middle Tennessee and Marshall are teams that are
better than the current projections suggest so Memphis may not be that bad. UCF BY 6
STANFORD (-6) Ucla 2:30 PM
With Cal getting wiped out last week the door is open for UCLA to take charge in the Pac -10.
Stanford also is a threat, already with a 2-0 conference record. The Bruins have been a very
effective defensive team with only 38 points scored upon them in three games and all three
games have come against decent quality competition. The Bruins have had shaky offensive
play and the QB situation is still less than ideal with Kevin Prince possibly still out. Stanford is
one of the top rushing teams in the nation but the schedule has not featured a high quality
defense yet. The Cardinal has also featured strong special team play which is often an
overlooked area. Stanford has now covered in eight consecutive home games with last week’s
win over Washington and UCLA has not had a lot of success in this series despite some
recent down years from the Cardinal. Last season UCLA won 23-20, scoring with ten seconds
to go in the game, so this could be a revenge spot for the Cardinal, but UCLA is in a favorable
position coming off a bye week before the conference opener. UCLA BY 3
TEXAS TECH (-35) New Mexico 2:30 PM
The Red Raiders let one slip away last week for a second straight loss and the opportunity is
there for a blowout win to get back on track this week. New Mexico is going through an
extreme transition and the Lobos have lost S/U and ATS in all four games this season. Last
week the Lobos lost at home against New Mexico State despite a big yardage edge in the
match-up. New Mexico is gaining 262 yards per game while allowing 421 yards per game and
if the Red Raiders are motivated the passing game should have a field day. Texas Tech has
been a solid home favorite in past years even with some inflated spreads and there may be a
little value back on TT with the losses the past two weeks. Texas Tech has had to play on the
road the last two weeks and being back at home should provide a boost. TEXAS TECH BY 42
Ohio State (-16½) INDIANA 6:00 PM
Since losing the big game to USC, Ohio State has outscored opponents 68-0 in two games as
the defense has really stepped up. Indiana has scored 26 points over the last four meetings
between these teams but the Hoosiers played commendably last week against Michigan in a
narrow loss. Although Indiana has needed great finishes in a few of their unimpressive wins,
they have now out-gained its opponent in every single game this year. The Hoosiers are also
perfect ATS on the season. Ben Chappell’s completion percentage has been far superior to
Terrelle Pryor’s and the Hoosiers have had a decent running game. Michigan eventually got
some yardage against Indiana on the ground last week but it took 50 carries as Indiana’s run
defense has been a strong point. Ohio State has had overwhelming success in this series
while Indiana has been worthless as a home underdog. OHIO STATE BY 24
Tulsa (-14) RICE 6:30 PM
The Golden Hurricane have delivered three dominant wins and one blowout loss and last year
even in Rice’s strong season Tulsa beat the Owls 63-28. The passing numbers for Tulsa have
been much stronger as Rice has battled through injuries with three quarterbacks already
seeing time. Rice is 9-3 in the last twelve games as home underdogs but the Owls failed in
that position last week. It has been a far more difficult schedule for the Owls but statistically
the defense has been terrible and the offense has dropped considerably from last season.
Rice has had trouble protecting the QB with over three sacks allowed per game, part of the
reason for the banged up backfield. Tulsa will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks
but the Hurricane has already won and covered twice as road favorites. TULSA BY 17
Arkansas (-1) Texas A&M @Irving, TX 6:30 PM
The schedule has been light but Texas A&M is off to a 3-0 start and the Aggies technically
own the most productive offense in the nation. The defense is putting great pressure on
opposing QBs and there has been a balance on offense that will make the Aggies a serious
threat in the Big XII after years of irrelevance. This will be the first game away from home and
though Arkansas has lost the last two games the Razorbacks should benefit from already
having played two big conference games before entering this stage. In great contrast to past
teams, Arkansas is one of the top passing offenses in the nation and the defensive numbers
should be measured in terms of already faced two high caliber opponents. This will be a
critical game for Arkansas as the rest of the early season schedule is challenging and the
Razors. Siding with the SEC usually makes sense in these types of match-ups although taking
the passing team over the rushing team has some risks. ARKANSAS BY 7
TENNESSEE (-2) Auburn 6:45 PM
Take away the big opening win and Tennessee is a team that is really struggling to put points
on the board. Auburn failed to cover a monster spot last week but the Tigers added to the
great rushing and scoring numbers. The Tigers have not yet played a road game this season
and they have failed to cover in each of the last six away games. Tennessee has had some
recent success in this series but this will be a critical battle between two new SEC coaches.
Auburn has won S/U the last two years but Tennessee has covered in both games. The Vols
have played the tougher schedule and Auburn should have lost to West Virginia and after four
at home the Tigers could get a reality check against a superior defensive team that needs to
win a major game after failing the first two tries. Auburn’s rushing attack will slow here and the
QB mistakes Tennessee has had could occur for the Tigers as well. TENNESSEE BY 7
Usc (-5½) CALIFORNIA 7:00 PM
Both teams have losses already as the early Pac -10 standings feature several other teams in
the lead. This is still a huge showdown though a bit less meaningful after USC was upset and
Cal was embarrassed last week. Cal has had success in this series but the Bears have not
been a great home underdog and it is hard to tell how a team will react to such a bad loss.
USC has now failed to cover in three straight games and even with QB Barkley back last week
the offense showed signs of weakness as there were only modest yardage edges against
lowly Washington State. USC’s defense still owns dominating numbers and the emotional
state for the Bears has to be questioned at this point. Wins over Maryland and Minnesota do
not look overly impressive at this point and USC has already played two tough road games
this season and that experience should pay off. Cal never can quite get over the hump and
this appears to be another spot to fall just short. USC BY 3
TCU (-27½) Smu 7:00 PM
The Horned Frogs have an elite defense but this could be a scary match-up. TCU just won at
Clemson in a hard fought game that was critical for the season success. Now they must face
an all-out pass attack that will run the secondary up and down the field. You have to be a
pretty bad team to lose to Washington State but the Mustangs were in position to win that
game on the road and could easily be 3-0. This is an improved Mustangs team that will find
ways to get on the scoreboard. TCU has played well in the heavy favorite role but SMU has
had two weeks to prepare for this game and TCU has big Mountain West games in the near
future with the stake in the season elevated with two big non-conference wins versus the ACC
to start the year. Last year TCU won in a blowout but SMU had covered the previous two
seasons and the Horned Frogs have not been truly tested on offense yet in a situation where
they need to score some serious points in a higher scoring game. TCU BY 21
SAN DIEGO STATE (-16½) New Mexico State 7:00 PM
The Aztecs are just 1-3 but all three losses came on the road and there have been some
encouraging signs. Former New Mexico coach Rocky Long is now on the SDSU staff so he
will be familiar with New Mexico State who is also going through transition. San Diego State
has not often been favored recently but they have performed well in those situations and New
Mexico State has been a dreadful offensive team so far this season. The Aggies are barely
scoring 14 points per game and last week’s win over New Mexico was extremely fortunate as
there was a large yardage deficit. This will be the second straight week on the road for the
Aggies and coming off a big win this could be a bad spot. SAN DIEGO ST BY 21
Houston (-16) UTEP 8:00 PM
The Cougars are now getting serious press as a potential BCS buster but they were very
fortunate to win last week and this is a team that has disappointed in seemingly easy games
in past years. UTEP is 1-3 and the Miners were crushed at Texas last week and it has been a
disappointing showing so far for a team that was expected to be one of the best in C-USA.
Value on UTEP is available but the statistics all around have been horrendous. Both teams
have been out-rushed in every game this season and Houston is 2-7 ATS in the past nine
road games. UTEP has lost badly in both home games this season and last year Houston
scored a narrow win in a game that they had 710 yards. It is hard to see where UTEP makes
stops in this game but Houston will get its best effort and the Cougars are overvalued based
on two wins, one that came in an incredibly favorable spot and the other that required a
miraculous comeback drive. HOUSTON BY 13
IOWA (-21) Arkansas State 11:00 AM
Look for Iowa to give a dud performance this week coming off a huge win over Penn State.
Iowa is 3-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite since ’06 and Arkansas State is one of the top
teams in the Sun Belt, narrowly missing knocking out the favorite Troy last week. Arkansas
State rushes for 190 yards per game and the opportunities will be there this week. Iowa plays
Michigan next week making this a very tough sandwich game to get up for and it will be a
huge opportunity for a Red Wolves team that has scored some big upsets in past years
including beating Texas A&M last season. Iowa’s 4-0 start has come with significant turnover
help and very limited offensive production so this will be a tough team to trust laying a big
number, particularly in a challenging situation. IOWA BY 13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-3) Wyoming 3:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 despite being one of the better Sun Belt squads in recent years.
Wyoming pulled out a narrow win last week while FAU was on the losing end of a close game
despite a significant yardage edge. Although the Owls lost last week the opening two losses
should be excused as high quality competition was in place. This will be the type of upset
opportunity that has suited Florida Atlantic in recent seasons. Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS in the
last 21 as road games and the Cowboys are scoring just 17 points per game with limited
yardage production. For the year Wyoming has been out-gained by almost 100 yards per
game despite being 2-2. Wyoming failed to score in its only road game this season and this
seems like a good spot to fade the Cowboys against a desperate 0-3 squad. Florida Atlantic is
well coached and there are some quality players in place for a team that has recovered from
slow starts in past years as well. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 7
UL-MONROE (-3½) Florida International 2:30 PM
Monroe has won and covered the last three years in this series and despite playing three of
four on the road to open the year the Warhawks have two wins. FIU is still winless and they
failed in what seemed to be an opportune situation at home. The Panthers have been a solid
ATS road team the past two years and but he passing game has been very inefficient so far
this season. FIU is allowing 492 yards per game and this will be a third road games in four
contests for the Panthers. FIU has not run the ball well nor stopped it well. Monroe is a diligent
rushing team that should eventually take control and run away with this win. MONROE BY 11
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2009
TROY (NL) Middle Tennessee State 7:00 PM
Call the Green Light Report for our pick on this game!
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-7½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 4 BUFFALO (NL) over Miami
RATING 3 DENVER (NL) over Dallas
RATING 2 DETROIT (+10½) over Chicago
RATING 1 CLEVELAND (+4½) over Cincinnati
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and all lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2009
HOUSTON (-9½) Oakland (42½) 12:00 PM
In the short history of the franchise Houston has been favored by over a touchdown just four
times and only twice this high (0-2 ATS). The Raiders have had less than 170 yards of offense
in back-to-back weeks but Oakland could still have a rushing edge in this game as the Texans
have averaged just 70 yards per game on the ground. Oakland is getting the worst QB play in
the league with the possible exception of Cleveland as former #1 pick Russell has been
unbelievably inefficient and opponents know that that the Raiders have little to work with if the
running game is stopped. Houston has featured one of the worst statistical defenses in the
league, allowing 28 points per game and allowing opponents to convert 50 percent of 3rd
downs. Oakland is a tough team to back but with the superior defense and running game a
near double-digit underdog is attractive. TEXANS BY 6
Tennessee (-1) JACKSONVILLE (41) 12:00 PM
The Titans can’t possibly be this bad right? That’s what we and many others thought last week
but despite a sound yardage edge Tennessee managed four turnovers and many other
mistakes to move to 0-3. Jacksonville narrowly adverted 0-3 with a win last week as these
teams both played close and entertaining back-and-forth games. Statistically these teams
have been similar as the offensive production has been decent but defensively both teams
have been a bit worse than anticipated. Some of that should be chalked up to the schedule as
both teams have faced quality offensive teams. Jacksonville has had little success in this
series, losing and failing ATS in both games last season. With Indianapolis and New England
the next two weeks this is an incredibly important game for the Titans. Jacksonville will be a
team that gets on a run mid-season as the schedule is about to soften tremendously but this is
a serious do-or-die situation for the Titans. TITANS BY 3
NEW ENGLAND (-1) Baltimore (44) 12:00 PM
The Ravens have been incredibly impressive this season but keep in mind two wins and much
of the statistical leverage came in two home wins against teams that are now 0-3. Baltimore’s
schedule will be getting a whole lot tougher as the next five opponents are currently 12-3
combined. The Ravens were 12-4 ATS last year in the regular season and are 3-0 so far this
season and riding this team has been very profitable but the value is starting to catch up. New
England was the consensus NFL favorite to start the season and the results have been
mediocre, creating a very cheap price at home. The offense has struggled to convert
touchdowns but this is still the fifth most productive unit in the NFL and that includes a game
against the current #3 defense. The Patriots picked up their first ATS win last week but this is
a team on a 17-3 S/U run at home since 2007. PATRIOTS BY 4
Cincinnati (-4½) CLEVELAND (38½) 12:00 PM
The Bengals got the big win to really legitimize what looks like a great turnaround but this is
the type of game that past Bengals teams often let slip away. Cleveland has been atrocious
offensively this season and neither QB is accomplishing anything positive as the line is not
offering protection and there is no running game to take the pressure off. The Browns have
averaged just 218 yards per game while allowing nearly double that total. In fairness the
teams Cleveland has played are a collective 9-0 and two of the three games have been on the
road. Although Cincinnati was unfortunate to lose the opening game with a fluke play the
Bengals have caught a lot of breaks the last two weeks and Cincinnati is averaging less than
300 yards per game. It is risky to back the Browns but it’s a good spot. BROWNS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-9½) Kansas City (42½) 12:00 PM
Historically the Chiefs have been a play -on home underdog but that simply has not been the
case in recent years. The Chiefs have had the third worst offensive produc tion in the league
and QB Cassel has not been the answer. Kansas City has been respectable defensively
considering they have faced two of the top offenses in the league. No team has been better
on both sides of the ball then the Giants and with some injuries last week New York delivered
one of the most impressive performances ever in Tampa Bay. This will oddly be a rare third
consecutive road game for New York so there could be some wear on the Giants. New York is
12-4 the last four years as road favorites so even with a steep price and a tough travel
situation it is tough to consider fading the Giants. Kansas City simply has not had a chance to
get in sync with all the changes as the schedule has been too tough. GIANTS BY 17
CHICAGO (-10½) Detroit (38) 12:00 PM
The Bears caught some breaks last week as Seattle missed critical field goals but it was a
huge road win to keep pace in the now very competitive NFC North. Detroit snapped the
historic losing streak last week and there could be some degree of letdown but this is a team
that has competed well all season an was bound to win at some point. Chicago is a tough
team to trust as a big favorite as the Bears have surprisingly been one of the worst rushing
teams in the NFL. Detroit has also been a very strong ATS team as a big underdog on the
road and the two losses came against teams that are now 3-0. BEARS BY 6
WASHINGTON (-7½) Tampa Bay (37½) 12:00 PM
The Redskins will look to rebound from an embarrassing loss but Washington is scoring less
than 14 points per game. Tampa Bay delivered one of the all-time worst offensive
performances last week and the Byron Leftwich experiment may be over as Josh Johnson
came in last week. The Bucs were competitive the first two games but now 0-3 and facing
NFC East road opponents the next two weeks there appears to be little hope for success this
season. As bad as the offense has been, the defense has had greater issues, allowing 432
yards per game and 30 points per game. This is a not a Washington team that inspires
confidence but the defense has been effective and there will be a lot of pressure on the
players and staff to bounce back following an ugly loss. REDSKINS BY 14
INDIANAPOLIS (NL) Seattle 12:00 PM
The Colts had delivered two narrow escapes but then came up big with a blowout win and a
huge passing day in primetime last week. The Colts will host a Seattle team that has lost
back-to-back games and is possibly still without QB Hasselbeck this week. Seattle out-gained
the Bears and Coach Mora was searing after the game regarding the missed field goals.
Statistically the Seahawks have been a little above average on both sides of the ball but given
a manageable early season schedule 1-2 is a huge disappointment. Indianapolis has some
concerns on defense with Dwight Freeney banged up and Bob Sanders still out. The Colts
have proven to be able to win any style of game. COLTS BY 10
NEW ORLEANS (-6½) NY Jets (46) 3:05 PM
This didn’t look like much of a game when the schedule was released but it will be the game
of the week with a 3-0 showdown between to upstart squads. New Orleans has been the most
productive offensive team in the league and the Saints did it on the ground last week. New
Orleans was caught in a much tougher battle than the final score indicates but the team is still
averaging 40 points per game. Offense meets defense this week and the Jets have forced
opposing QBs into awful performances this season. Statistically other teams have been a bit
better on defense but New York has done it against quality offensive teams. Playing on the
road will be another challenge but this is a team that clearly has a lot going its way. The Saints
have been marginal at home in recent years and will likely be overvalued. JETS BY 3
MIAMI (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
In the last two games Miami has rushed effectively and controlled the clock but the Dolphins
are settling for far too many field goals and the result is an 0-3 start for last year’s AFC East
champion. Buffalo is 1-2 with two losses against quality opponents in close games but there
have been some problems for the Bills as the offense struggled considerably at home last
week. Chad Pennington left last week’s game and he is still questionable at this point. Buffalo
has had a tremendous edge in the last five years in this series covering in eight of the last ten
and the Dolphins have been a horrible ATS home team. BILLS BY 10
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:15 PM
Injuries will be a big factor in this line as QB Marc Bulger is banged up and RB Frank Gore is
likely out taking away a key offensive player for both teams. San Francisco had a golden
opportunity to start 3-0 last week with a brutal loss but the Niners have shown a lot of positive
things this season and should be considered a viable threat in the NFC and the NFC West
favorite. St. Louis finally got the running game going a bit last week but this has been a
pathetic offensive team and Kyle Boller has not proven to be starter material in the NFL
despite several chances. San Francisco seems to be a team that can bounce back from a
tough loss quickly as the new coaching staff is getting great respect. 49ERS BY 14
DENVER (NL) Dallas 3:15 PM
The Broncos have been the biggest surprise of the season at 3-0 but the schedule has been
suspect. Still this is a team that has won twice on the road and has the best defensive
statistics in the league, by a fairly wide margin. Dallas is coming off back-to-back primetime
games so this could be a tough situation even though Denver has been a horrendous ATS
home team but the Broncos are 3-0 S/U and ATS this season. It is hard to say how good
Denver is but Dallas has had big problems on defense and still seems to turn the ball over too
often on offense to trust on the road. We will know much more about Dallas after Monday’s
game but even a nice win makes this a tough trip on a short week. BRONCOS BY 13
PITTSBURGH (-6) San Diego (41½) 7:20 PM
The Super Bowl champs seemed to improve its maligned running game last week but it was
not enough to win as the Steelers uncharacteristically blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead.
The Chargers have had virtually no success in this series over the years and the Steelers
have been impressive home favorites with covers in five of the last six. Last season the
Chargers lost by one in the infamous game in Pittsburgh where the closing touchdown was
oddly wiped away to keep the cover with the Chargers but this should be a tough spot for San
Diego facing long distance travel. The Steelers have faced a tough schedule including the last
two on the road so this could be a great bounce back effort. San Diego has not been able to
run the ball with Tomlinson out of the lineup and the Steelers have fared well in shootout type
games even though Rivers has posted big numbers this year. STEELERS BY 10
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2009
MINNESOTA (-3) Green Bay (46) 7:30 PM
The Vikings have really not been that impressive offensively this season averaging just 318
yards per game. The Vikings have however come through when it counts to deliver a 3-0 start.
Defensively the Vikings have some of the best numbers in the league but they have faced
three marginal offensive teams and this will be by far the biggest threat against a defense that
has looked more vulnerable than the past few seasons. The Packers have had great success
in the underdog role in this series and this will be a much bigger game for the Packers than for
most of the Vikings with one small exception. Green Bay has shown a lot of problems against
the run which makes this appear like a bad match-up but the Packers have some key play -
makers in the secondary that could take advantage of potential mistakes. Minnesota’s home
field edge is not as significant when the Packers are in town and this should be tight game
that the Packers have the chance to take. PACKERS BY 3
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
Mississippi -4 10 14 40 139 8 22 109 1 New Mexico State 44.5 20 17 56 122 14 24 96 2
South Carolina 51 16 15 34 65 16 34 220 1 New Mexico -11.5 17 13 25 150 16 28 206 1
Missouri -7.5 31 23 34 78 25 40 414 1 Washington State 57 6 18 46 85 16 31 144 3
Nevada 61 21 23 45 218 17 29 146 2 USC -45 27 14 29 156 13 22 247 2
Wake Forest 40.5 24 21 31 142 25 35 354 3 Arizona 46 37 25 33 134 25 34 254 0
Boston College -1 27 21 45 170 18 29 228 1 Oregon State -3 32 28 30 104 31 49 303 2
Illinois 49.5 0 14 34 82 15 29 88 3 UL-Monroe 56.5 27 21 40 157 18 25 207 1
Ohio State -14 30 19 46 236 8 13 82 2 Florida Atlantic -3.5 25 25 33 151 30 51 347 1
Minnesota -1 35 22 42 166 15 26 186 1 Louisiana 54 0 14 37 102 15 27 120 3
Northwestern 49.5 24 23 29 64 32 47 309 3 Nebraska -30 55 21 34 133 22 26 300 0
Indiana 53.5 33 20 33 197 21 38 270 1 Western Kentucky 51 22 22 33 158 22 29 276 3
Michigan -18 36 20 50 149 13 24 223 2 Navy -30.5 38 26 64 373 4 5 100 1
Buffalo 46 13 20 30 99 26 41 281 5 Troy 50.5 30 29 37 134 34 49 373 3
Temple -3.5 37 16 40 198 6 17 95 1 Arkansas State -3 27 13 25 70 15 27 235 3
Michigan State 52.5 30 23 22 90 24 46 396 4 Mid Tenn State -6 37 23 45 187 21 43 269 0
Wisconsin -1.5 38 22 50 193 19 31 243 1 North Texas 56 21 25 25 157 35 54 313 5
TCU 40.5 14 19 40 162 17 26 226 0 Toledo 59 41 20 34 223 18 32 343 1
Clemson -2.5 10 17 32 117 17 37 192 0 Florida Intl -1 31 21 42 148 19 43 224 2
Rutgers 49.5 34 14 49 207 4 13 42 0 Rhode Island 10 5 32 29 14 23 119 3
Maryland -1 13 12 24 28 21 38 271 5 Connecticut NL 52 25 42 199 23 30 289 3
Boise State -17 49 23 35 267 19 25 262 0 Tennessee Tech 7 9 25 -19 12 19 126 1
Bowling Green 52 14 18 33 93 21 42 189 3 Kansas State NL 49 24 60 296 10 11 152 0
Ohio 44 23 15 17 25 30 52 319 1 McNeese State 32 25 48 252 16 25 221 2
Tennessee -22 34 24 39 177 17 34 222 1 Tulane NL 42 19 39 205 10 13 222 2
Central Florida 43 14 19 24 70 21 34 266 5 Grambling State 6 17 42 156 11 26 104 2
East Carolina -9.5 19 23 38 110 27 41 293 3 Oklahoma State NL 56 23 43 321 17 23 266 4
Fresno State 63 20 25 57 290 16 27 153 1 NC Central 14 8 28 70 8 19 111 1
Cincinnati -17 28 15 16 57 18 26 300 0 Duke NL 49 28 41 233 25 37 254 1
Akron 53.5 21 15 37 69 12 19 127 1 Maine 24 20 28 90 25 36 340 2
Central Michigan -15 48 30 53 326 23 31 197 1 Syracuse NL 41 20 31 115 21 28 270 1
LSU -12 30 12 31 30 15 28 233 0 Sam Houston St 3 13 42 141 8 21 100 2
Mississippi State 46 26 21 46 151 17 40 223 4 Tulsa NL 56 21 44 238 14 19 278 1
Army 47 10 19 48 186 11 26 130 1 Northwestern St 13 17 43 133 19 31 115 4
Iowa State -10 31 18 43 201 11 20 175 0 Baylor NL 68 25 33 283 16 25 284 1
Marshall 49 27 14 41 243 11 19 124 1 Hofstra 10 19 35 140 18 30 189 2
Memphis -3 16 15 27 119 17 35 232 2 Western Michigan NL 24 26 32 133 34 43 338 3
UAB 64.5 19 13 35 229 9 25 74 0 Cal-Poly 9 17 43 179 10 26 135 2
Texas A&M -14.5 56 30 51 236 25 31 308 1 San Jose State NL 19 16 31 242 18 32 172 1
Southern Miss 58.5 28 21 26 64 28 42 331 2 Southern Utah 34 23 31 105 26 53 262 3
Kansas -11.5 35 32 45 102 30 42 331 2 Utah State NL 53 25 44 259 16 22 345 3
San Diego State 52.5 14 16 25 39 25 41 284 6
Air Force -17.5 26 12 58 243 3 7 51 0
Vanderbilt -7.5 36 23 43 216 23 41 268 1
Rice 49.5 17 14 40 160 12 32 122 4
Ball State 54.5 30 19 44 146 18 30 114 2
Auburn -30.5 54 21 34 254 21 29 306 2
UNLV -3.5 27 26 32 126 26 45 260 4
Wyoming 46.5 30 19 32 109 25 39 248 0 Last Week's NFL Stats
Arkansas 55.5 7 14 26 63 16 41 191 1 TITANS 36 17 17 30 127 15 37 159 4
Alabama -17.5 35 18 41 134 17 24 291 0 JETS -1 24 13 31 83 17 30 146 2
Florida -20 41 25 52 362 9 16 133 1 JAGUARS 47.5 31 24 31 184 18 30 214 1
Kentucky 53.5 7 11 32 86 14 31 93 2 TEXANS -4.5 24 23 22 111 26 35 286 2
Arizona State 48.5 17 14 28 88 10 32 116 1 CHIEFS 39 14 11 29 99 15 19 97 1
Georgia -13.5 20 17 31 92 17 31 242 3 EAGLES -7.5 34 21 27 93 24 36 327 1
California -5.5 3 15 32 77 13 36 130 2 BROWNS 38.5 3 11 23 71 17 27 115 4
Oregon 55.5 42 26 52 236 25 32 288 3 RAVENS -13.5 34 28 28 142 26 37 337 1
South Florida 51 17 16 42 153 8 21 215 2 GIANTS -6.5 24 27 49 226 16 27 171 0
Florida State -14 7 17 27 19 25 37 269 4 BUCCANEERS 46 0 5 10 28 11 26 58 1
North Carolina 45 7 8 18 17 11 26 137 3 REDSKINS -6 14 22 14 65 27 41 325 1
Georgia Tech -3 24 24 69 317 7 11 89 0 LIONS 39.5 19 23 36 154 21 36 227 0
Idaho 53.5 34 24 44 207 18 23 270 0 PACKERS -6.5 36 24 37 152 13 23 250 0
Northern Illinois -14.5 31 18 30 128 17 24 184 0 RAMS 43 17 22 33 149 19 35 187 3
Colorado State 55.5 23 26 28 66 30 50 372 2 49ERS 39.5 24 13 26 58 15 25 188 1
BYU -19.5 42 20 34 132 18 29 241 2 VIKINGS -7 27 19 27 94 24 46 283 1
Pittsburgh -2 31 11 23 94 12 23 206 0 FALCONS 45.5 10 13 17 58 17 28 199 1
NC State 47.5 38 27 46 208 21 35 322 1 PATRIOTS -4.5 26 28 39 168 25 42 277 0
Washington 54 14 16 27 100 16 31 190 3 BEARS -2.5 25 14 28 85 21 27 233 2
Stanford -9 34 22 50 321 7 14 103 2 SEAHAWKS 37.5 19 19 28 103 26 44 243 2
Miami, OH 47 19 26 38 215 31 53 337 5 SAINTS -5.5 27 21 38 222 16 29 156 1
Kent State -7 29 13 41 173 5 11 77 0 BILLS 51.5 7 13 21 89 21 36 154 2
Louisville 52.5 14 18 35 80 15 33 181 3 DOLPHINS 45.5 13 19 31 149 18 31 140 2
Utah -14 30 19 42 214 17 22 202 1 CHARGERS -5.5 23 19 28 69 18 33 286 1
Miami, FL -2.5 7 12 34 59 9 25 150 2 STEELERS -3.5 20 17 28 102 22 31 271 1
Virginia Tech 46.5 31 17 55 272 4 9 98 1 BENGALS 37 23 19 19 100 20 37 173 0
Notre Dame -6.5 24 23 43 167 20 36 216 1 BRONCOS -2.5 23 21 45 215 13 23 157 1
Purdue 59.5 21 16 26 74 22 38 289 2 RAIDERS 38 3 9 23 95 12 21 42 3
UTEP 64 7 7 25 9 9 26 44 5 COLTS 49 31 22 31 126 24 35 379 1
Texas -37 64 32 42 304 33 41 335 3 CARDINALS -3 10 21 12 24 32 54 299 3
Iowa 40.5 21 17 37 163 11 26 135 2 PANTHERS 48
Penn State -9.5 10 15 33 109 12 32 198 4 COWBOYS -8.5
Texas Tech -2.5 28 31 32 163 30 47 321 2
Houston 75.5 29 29 36 144 38 58 435 1
4th Quarter Covers:
Boston College led 24-10 late in
the 4th quarter but a furious Wake
Forest rally pushed the game to
OT where BC stopped Wake
Forest with a fumble recovery
after putting up three in the first
OT possession. Northwestern
rallied late in the third quarter to
take a 24-21 lead but Minnesota
scored midway through the fourth
to regain the lead. Northwestern
had the ball late but a fumble
early in the series sealed the
game for the Gophers. Clemson
led TCU 10-7 at halftime and that
lead held up until TCU put
together a scoring drive early in
the fourth quarter. Clemson had
two long drives in the fourth
quarter that bogged down in the
red zone with a missed field goal
and a failed 4th down conversion.
Rutgers trailed Maryland 13 -10 at
halftime and though the Knights
were covering 17-13 entering the
fourth they created a misleading
final with 17 points in the final
quarter. East Carolina led by just
six entering the fourth quarter but
looked on the way to a cover as
they padded the lead to 12 in the
fourth, but Central Florida scored
with just over a minute to go to
take back the cover. Air Force
hardly played a great game on
offense and the inexperience at
QB was apparent but the Falcons
were leading by 24 entering the
fourth quarter until San Diego
State scored two meaningless
touchdowns in the final 3:26 to
take the cover. In a back-and-forth
4th quarter Colorado State pulled
within eleven and later within
twelve but BYU got the final score
to push the margin to 19, covering
the early numbers but still an ATS
loss at the closing figure. In a
closely lined game Pittsburgh led
by 14 late in the third quarter but
NC State scored the final three
touchdowns to win by seven
including two scores in the fourth
quarter. Notre Dame led 17 -7
entering the fourth on pace to
cover but Purdue took the lead
late in the game before Notre
Dame pulled out another closing
minute win, though Purdue took
the cash. Texas Tech led the
entire second half until the final
minute and the Red Raiders were
stopped on downs with a chance
to put the game away early in the
fourth quarter. Houston drove 95
yards to take the lead late and
Tech did not have enough time to
get into field goal range though
they got close. Arkansas State led
by one entering the fourth quarter
and took a four-point lead early in
the fourth but Troy scored to take
back the lead and held on for the
win as a small dog. The Rams
were down just six to the Packers
entering the 4th but Green Bay
scored twice to put the game
away. The Titans led 17-14 late in
the 3rd with big yardage edges but
turnovers and sloppy play gave
the Jets the opportunity to take
over. Seattle pulled within one
and then took the lead in the 4th
but the Bears scored with 1:52
remaining then stopped Seattle’s
late drive. The Saints led by just
three entering the fourth before
adding 17 late points to gain some
distance. The Steelers led 20 -9
entering the 4th but the Bengals
delivered the comeback win.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Upset Lingering: Still Road Favorites after an Upset Loss
PLAY AGAINST: Any college football road favorite coming
off a S/U loss as a favorite now facing a team off a S/U win.
68-48-2, 61.8% since 1994
PLAY AGAINST: Florida State, Mississippi,
(Play On: Boston College, Vanderbilt)
Tighten It: If the opponent is off back-to-back S/U wins: 28-12-2, 70%
Fits: No team applies this week
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Desperation Time: Road Favorites on losing streaks
PLAY ON: Any NFL road favorite coming off three
consecutive S/U losses
20-12, 62.5 % since 1995
PLAY ON: Tennessee
(Play Against: Jacksonville)
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off a S/U win: 8-1, 88.9% since 1980
Fits: Tennessee
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘OVER’ Northwestern/Purdue
Three of the five Big Ten games played ‘over’ last week and this
team will match up two marginal defenses against productive
offenses. Both teams are averaging 416 or more yards per game
and nearly 33 points per game. Purdue was held to just 21 points
last week but the Boilers have faced a very tough schedule and
Northwestern had 309 passing yards last week with turnovers
costing a few scoring chances.
NFL: ‘UNDER’ St. Louis/San Francisco
The Rams had a season high output last week with 17 points and
although this should be a low figure it makes sense to look for
another low-scoring game. San Francisco’s defense will be revved
up after a tough loss and the Niners will stick to the running game
even if RB Gore is out for this game. Eight of the last eleven
meetings between these division rivals have played ‘under’ and the
‘under’ has hit in six of the last eight San Francisco games and six of
the last nine St. Louis games.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RATING 5 GEORGIA (-2½) over Lsu
RATING 4 UCLA (+6) over Stanford
RATING 3 MARSHALL (+3) over East Carolina
RATING 2 ALABAMA (-17½) over Kentucky
RATING 2 VANDERBILT (+10) over Mississippi
RATING 1 OKLAHOMA (-6½) over Miami
RATING 1 IDAHO (+3½) over Colorado State
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
LOUISIANA TECH (-4) Hawaii 7:00 PM
The Bulldogs won eight games last season and projected as a competitive team again this
season but in early non-conference games as appealing underdogs Tech fell well short. The
Bulldogs picked up a win against FCS Nicholls State and they seek to beat Hawaii for the first
time since 2005 in this midweek game. During Hawaii’s 2007 perfect regular season the
Warriors narrowly escaped Ruston with a 45-44 win the last time Tech hosted this match-up.
Hawaii is the top passing offense in the nation in terms of yards per game but Tech’s
opposition has preferred to run the ball this season. This will technically be the third
consecutive road game for Hawaii though they did not play last week. Louisiana Tech has
historically held a great home field advantage in recent years but most of that success has
come in an underdog role. Hawaii may have more wins but Louisiana Tech should be the
superior team and last season despite losing at Hawaii the Bulldogs had good production and
held Hawaii to limited yardage through the air but turnovers proved costly. LA TECH BY 10
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2009
WEST VIRGINIA (-17½) Colorado 6:30 PM
Turnovers killed West Virginia in its last game as they thoroughly out-gained Auburn on the
road before giving the game away late. Through three games and two quality opponents the
Mountaineers have averaged 485 yards per game on offense but they also have one of the
worst turnover margins in the nation. Colorado beat West Virginia last season in Boulder in
overtime in a game where the Mountaineers rushed for 311 yards but scored just 14 points.
Colorado endured a disastrous 0-2 start but the Buffaloes rebounded in its last game with a
shutout win over Wyoming. Statistically Colorado has one of the worst defenses in the nation
and although they have not faced a FCS squad like many teams have they have not faced
any powerhouse major conference programs either. West Virginia should have a big day on
the ground and even though the Mountaineers have suffered from questionable coaching
decisions and turnovers they should be the superior team. WEST VIRGINIA BY 21
Southern Miss (NL) UAB 7:00 PM
The Golden Eagles gave Kansas a run last week as the game was tied late but eventually
Southern Miss faded in a fairly even statistical game. Southern Miss allowed 32 first downs in
the game and this will be difficult second-straight road game following a narrow loss in a big
non-conference game. Southern Miss scored 70 on UAB last season so there is no doubt that
the Blazers will be motivated for a better performance this year. UAB was blown out last week
at Texas A&M although the Blazers rushed for 229 yards in the match-up. UAB had an
encouraging opening win but has now lost three straight games while allowing 480 yards per
game for the season. Southern Miss has a talented team that should be among the
contenders in Conference USA but this looks like a tricky spot, traveling again in a game that
would be easy to overlook after last year’s result and a more distinguished game with
Louisville up next. UAB has posted strong rushing numbers so they could be competitive here
as inflated underdog coming off a bad performance. SOUTHERN MISS BY 10
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2009
Pittsburgh (NL) LOUISVILLE 7:00 PM
Louisville’s offense has fallen on tough times, a far cry from the unit that posted huge numbers
a few years ago. Louisville’s defense has held up well but the Cardinals are scoring less than
24 points per game. Louisville has been on the road against quality competition the last two
weeks and this will be another tough game but back at home. Pittsburgh led by 14 late in the
game last week at NC State but it was a game that the Panthers were thoroughly out-gained
in and eventually the lead slipped away. Pittsburgh won 41-7 at home last season but that
was the only S/U win for the Panthers in this series since ’90. Turnovers were the big factor in
that match-up last season and Pittsburgh has had a big turnov er edge this season through
four games. Although Louisville’s offense has not been productive there has been
disappointing numbers from Pitt as well who seems to be missing the key pieces of the
running game that had great success last season. LOUISVILLE BY 3
BYU (-24½) Utah State 8:00 PM
The Cougars rebounded from their horrible loss to Florida State with a win last week but BYU
was actually out-gained against Colorado State allowing 372 passing yards. Utah State picked
up its first win of the season last week against FCS Souther Utah and though the offense
turned it over three times, the Aggies also had over 600 yards. Utah State gave up at least 34
points for the third straight game however. Last season BYU won 34-14 but Utah State was
able to move the ball effectively in that game. BYU has not performed well in the ATS role as
a favorite and this may be a spread that is too big to surpass. BYU has struggled with
turnovers and defending the pass and Utah State is going to score a few times. BYU BY 21
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2009
South Florida (-7) SYRACUSE 11:00 AM
It looked like an impossible situation with a new QB going against Florida State but the Bulls
capitalized on turnovers and made a few big plays to score an upset and one of the biggest
wins in the program’s history. South Florida’s defense was exceptional against the run but this
could be a very tricky situation coming off such a big win. South Florida has won easily in all
four years in the Big East against Syracuse but so far this year the Orange has shown some
potential. Syracuse has faced a tough opening slate of games and at 2-2 coming off an FCS
win last week this is a team with some confidence. Syracuse has been a difficult team to run
against so inexperienced QB Daniels will have to make some plays this will be a whole new
situation playing in a dome. The Orange has been a quality home underdog in recent years
and the points make sense in this letdown spot. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 6
East Carolina (-3) MARSHALL 11:00 AM
The Pirates hung on for a win last week in a sloppy game but East Carolina is yet to cover in a
game this season. Marshall is now quietly 3-1 after back-to-back excellent defensive
performances. For the second straight week the Thundering Herd put over 240 rushing yards
while allowing 16 points or less. That formula would be a great recipe for success in
Conference USA and the Herd will face a favorable conference schedule. During East
Carolina’s run to the conference title last season, a 19-16 OT win over Marshall was one of
several narrow wins for the Pirates. The home team has had success in this series and
Marshall has been a high quality home underdog in recent years covering in ten of the last
twelve instances. This is the homecoming game for Marshall and ECU may not be able to
sneak out this win coming in a third road game in four weeks. MARSHALL BY 4
PURDUE (-7) Northwestern 11:00 AM
Both teams played well enough to win last week but were bitten by late rallies. The loser of
this game will be in rough shape with some of the tougher games ahead on the schedule.
Northwestern covered in all three games as road underdogs last season and the Wildcats
soundly defeated Purdue last year winning 48-26 although Purdue produced more yards.
Defensively Northwestern has much better numbers but Purdue has faced a far tougher
schedule and there will be some extra excitement in West Lafayette for the Big Ten opener
that is also homecoming. Although Purdue has only won once they have been more
impressive outside of the upset loss to Northern Illinois as Notre Dame and Oregon will likely
have impressive resumes by season’s end. Purdue has featured better balance on offense
this season as Northwestern has been one-dimensional and the defensive numbers for the
Wildcats are watered down with a dominant effort against FCS Towson. PURDUE BY 10
MINNESOTA (-2½) Wisconsin 11:00 AM
Wisconsin is now 4-0 and after three uninspiring wins the Badgers finally put together a strong
overall performance last week for a win that was not as close as the final margin suggests. On
the other hand Minnesota added a late score to inflate what was a hard fought road win. This
will be the first Big Ten game at the Bank and Minnesota has battled through a tough early
season schedule and is sitting in good shape with a 3-1 record. Having already played two
outstanding rushing teams should help the Gophers defensively and Wisconsin has shown
some weaknesses in defending the pass. Minnesota can feature a great air attack and the
running game showed some promise last week as well. Last year star WR Decker missed this
game for Minnesota yet the Gophers nearly pulled off the upset falling by just three. Three of
the last four years of this long rivalry have featured great games but this looks like a spot
where the Badgers may be exposed and a match-up where Minnesota can take advantage of
a few opportunities while catching an overrated Badger squad. MINNESOTA BY 10
WAKE FOREST (PK) NC State 2:30 PM
These teams both led fourth quarter rallies last week but only one team was victorious as NC
State posted huge numbers to win last week at home and Wake Forest lost in OT. After
horrendous offensive numbers in the opening week the Wolfpack have turned into a
juggernaut with 148 points scored in the last three games. NC State has the top statistical
defense in the nation allowing just 201 yards per game but two games came against FCS
competition. NC State won 21-17 at home last season against Wake Forest with a comeback
win but the Demon Deacons won easily the last time these teams met in Winston-Salem.
Wake Forest has had success in this series and the recent numbers as home favorites are
actually favorable even though going back a few years further there are some ugly trends for
Wake in that role. Defensively Wake is allowing just over 18 points per game while playing
three of four games against high quality bowl caliber opponents. WAKE BY 6
Clemson (-14) MARYLAND 11:00 AM
Maryland’s loss at home last week was not as bad as the 21-point margin suggests but the
numbers do not lie as the Terps are allowing 38 points per game. Maryland has turned the ball
over 13 times in four games and that has been a key difference from a team that won several
close games last year. Clemson is 2-2 but there have been no easy games on the schedule
and the Tigers blew out a Middle Tennessee State team that beat Maryland two weeks ago.
Clemson had its chances to win last week but ultimately fell short. The Clemson defense
should dominate this match-up and although the offense has struggled the last two weeks the
conditions have played a significant role. Maryland has not come close to covering this
season and they are too mistake-prone to trust. CLEMSON BY 21
NORTH CAROLINA (-14) Virginia 11:00 AM
Virginia led a miraculous comeback last year to win in a series they have had recent
dominance in. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this game while UNC looks to
regroup after a dismal performance in Atlanta where the team produced a total of just eight
first downs. The Cavaliers are 0-3 so this will be a critical game and although UNC is a well
regarded squad but the offensive numbers have been poor with only 307 yards per game
including two games with twelve or fewer points scored. The Tar Heels have performed well at
home and this is not a Virginia squad that has exhibited much ability to score against a quality
defense. Expect the Heels to get revenge and redeem last week’s poor effort. UNC BY 17
Florida State (-5) BOSTON COLLEGE 11:00 AM
Florida State has been incredibly inconsistent as they are 2-2 but own one of the most
impressive wins of the season in a destruction of BYU two weeks ago. FSU should have beat
Miami in the opener but they have had two awful letdown performances following big games,
nearly losing to Jacksonville State and last week being upset at home against South Florida
and a QB making his first ever start. The defensive numbers are mostly good for the
Seminoles but they have been burned by allowing big plays. Boston College lacks a big play
offense and the Eagles still have major questions at QB but BC is 3-1 coming off a big win last
week at home. The home team has failed to cover each of the last four years in this series
and Boston College has overvalued defensive statistics. BC beat two weak opponents
soundly and then played Clemson in game with awful weather before last week’s narrow
escape. Florida State has really not proven they can get it done. FSU BY 3
Central Michigan (-8½) BUFFALO 2:30 PM
The Chippewas took care of business in the opening MAC game, delivering an impressive
ground effort with 326 yards. Last season Central Michigan snuck by Buffalo for a 2-point
victory in an evenly matched game but the Chippewas look like the stronger squad this
season. Buffalo had an impressive road win to start the season but has now lost three in a row
S/U and ATS. The Bulls out-gained their opponent significantly in two of those three losses
but Buffalo has been falling behind early and forcing the ball in the air. Central Michigan will
have the advantage if this game becomes a shootout and the Bulls are surprisingly just 2-6
ATS in the last eight home games. Buffalo has played a tough schedule and this will be just
the second home game but the inability to run the ball and stop the run should allow Central
Michigan to pull away for a critical road win in conference play . CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 14
Toledo (-7) BALL STATE 11:00 AM
Toledo has played an extremely tough schedule and is 2-2 despite being an underdog in all
four games. The Rockets are averaging 473 yards per game but the defens e is also allowing
nearly 40 points per game. Ball State had an undefeated regular season last year but now is
on its way to a winless season with a 0-4 start. Ball State also has terrible defensive numbers
but with the exception of the last game against Auburn the Cardinals have played a fairly
weak schedule. Turnovers have been a big issue for Ball State but the pass defense has been
respectable, in part because they have been easy to run against. Ball State beat Toledo 31-0
last season, out-gaining the Rockets by 325 yards but this year Toledo looks like the more
promising team. Ball State has covered the last two weeks and this could be a bad spot for
Toledo facing a second straight road games and likely playing as a significant road favorite
despite serious defensive liabilities. Ball State clearly has some problems and it has been a
slow transition but there has been improvement shown. TOLEDO BY 7
Alabama (-17½) KENTUCKY 11:20 AM
The Crimson Tide stay in the top three as several teams nearby in the ranking lost last week
and it could be argued that Alabama has the best four-game resume in the nation including
two impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Arkansas. Alabama has not played on the road
yet and they will play the same match-up that #1 Florida had no problem with last week. Last
season Alabama barely got by Kentucky, winning 17-14 but the statistical edges were
significant. Last week’s poor effort for Kentucky came on the heels of a big rivalry win so a
better effort could be in order this week. The Tide has performed as road favorites and the
one missed cover for Alabama was still a 24-point win that was never in question. Kentucky
had less than 180 yards on offense last week and Alabama’s defense looks just as strong as
Florida’s and statistically it has been almost identical through a higher quality schedule. Look
for Alabama to keep earning respect in the polls and Kentucky will have a hard time staying
close in this game as they will be forced to pass early and often. Alabama could make a
strong case for being the top team in the nation and it would be wise to avoid trying to beat the
Tide until they show more vulnerability. ALABAMA BY 27
Mississippi (-10) VANDERBILT 6:00 PM
Ole Miss lost as the #4 team in the nation last week but the Rebels got that ranking based on
expectations and not on actual merit. Mississippi has solid defensive numbers but they have
played just three games and they will now face a second straight road game coming off a
disappointing primetime loss. Vanderbilt rebounded from back-to-back disappointing losses to
get back to 2-2 with a win at Rice but the Commodores have really struggled to score against
SEC competition with twelve points in two games. Vanderbilt has some of the best defensive
numbers against the pass this season and though the opposition has factored into that the Ole
Miss offense has not been smooth operation so far this season despite the returning talent in
place. Ole Miss has covered just once in the last ten meetings in this series so it could be a
difficult situation. Ole Miss was facing national expectations and to have an early season loss
could take a lot out of this team. Vanderbilt has beat Ole Miss each of the last two seasons
S/U and QB Snead had four picks in this game last year. OLE MISS BY 3
Cincinnati (-27½) MIAMI, OH 12:00 PM
These nearby schools have gone in opposite directions in recent years and Cincinnati has
rightfully risen in the standings with a 4-0 start. Cincinnati is averaging 43 points per game
while allowing just 14 points per game three of the four games have come against quality
opponents, with two games played on the road. Last week Fresno State rushed for 290 yards
against the Bearcats and Cincinnati has also benefited from a great turnover margin so there
are still some concerns with this team. Against Miami it is unlikely that there will be much of a
struggle however as the Redhawks are 0-4 while allowing over 41 points per game and failing
to cover in all four games. A big conference game against South Florida is on the schedule
next but there still is enough of a regional rivalry to keep the intensity level high for this matchup.
Cincinnati has won by 25 and 37 the past two years in this series and Miami is just 4-12
ATS in the last 16 lined home games. Miami has the worst turnover margin in the nation with
16 giveaways and only three takeaways so if the turnover numbers bounce Miami will have a
chance to stay close here but Cincinnati has too explosive of an offense to try to beat in what
should be a mismatch if the Bearcats come into the game motivated. CINCINNATI BY 31
Temple (-5) EASTERN MICHIGAN 12:00 PM
In a valiant effort against Michigan two weeks ago Eastern Michigan QB Andy Schmitt was
injured and he will be unable to finish the season. Eastern Michigan is 0-3 on the season and
the rest of the season will be an even greater challenge although there should be some more
even match-ups coming in conference play. Eastern Michigan currently owns the #1 pass
defense in the nation but is meaningless as the Eagles have faced three teams that have
preferred to run and running on EMU has not been difficult. Temple opened the season with a
loss to Villanova that may look bad to an outside observer but the Wildcats should be one of
the top FCS teams and could probably compete well in the MAC. The Owls played
respectably against Penn State and everything came together last week for a big revenge win
against Buffalo. Temple caught breaks with turnovers last week but they also had great
success moving the ball on the ground which should make for a favorable match-up this week.
Eastern Michigan is just 4-11 ATS in the past 15 home games but the Eagles will catch value
this week facing a Temple team off a misleading big win. TEMPLE BY 3
ARMY (-6) Tulane 11:00 AM
Army looked like a dangerous underdog last week against Iowa State but despite an even
statistical performance the Cadets were 21-point losers. Army’s rushing attack has posted
strong numbers and with two wins early in the year and a favorable schedule ahead this is a
team with bowl potential. Tulane was caught in mismatches to start the season losing badly to
BYU and Tulsa but last week the Wave got in the win column with a win over McNeese State.
Tulane won by ten on the scoreboard but allowed 473 yards. Tulane has allow ed 41 points
and 470 yards per game for the season and this will be the first road game of the season so
the early results have not been promising. Army is a difficult team to trust as a favorite
however as the one-dimensional offense is not likely to create quick scores or big plays. In
four games Army has averaged just 20 points per game which makes covering as a favorite
difficult even if the defense plays well. Both of Army’s wins came against MAC teams and this
should be a small step up in competition. ARMY BY 3
Virginia Tech (-17) DUKE 11:00 AM
The Hokies reaffirmed their position as the team to beat in the ACC even though some other
squads had seemingly gained some ground. Tech was completely dominant against Miami
last week and with the only loss being a competitive effort against Alabama, the Hokies can
make a solid case as a top ranked team. Virginia Tech will be favored in every game the rest
of the way and the Hokies do not have to play Florida State or Clemson in a very favorable
ACC schedule. This could be a bit of a flat spot following a big game but last season Duke
played close with Virginia Tech and the Blue Devils will not be overlooked. Duke won last
week against FCS NC Central and some decent statistical figures from the Devils should not
be give too much weight as two lower division foes have been among the four games played.
Alabama and Nebraska had success against the Hokies on the ground but Duke is not a
quality rushing team which will make this a difficult match-up. Even though Duke should have
trouble competing here, the Blue Devils have made a lot of progress from a few years ago and
this will be an inflated line after the Hokies crushed a Miami team that the media was
enamored with. If Duke can avoid turnovers they will likely stay close. VIRGINIA TECH BY 14
NOTRE DAME (-13½) Washington 2:30 PM
The Irish creamed Washington last season in a game that was more lopsided than the final
score probably represented as the yardage margin was 335 and Washington’s lone
touchdown came with just a few minutes to go. Things have changed this year however and
Washington has already done the one thing that Notre Dame has not been able to do in
recent years by beating USC. Notre Dame won on the ground in last year’s game and they
may need to do so again this week as the passing game appeared limited by the injuries last
week in a narrow escape. It has been three straight weeks of down to the wire games for the
Irish it given the health issues already present this could be a tough week for the team.
Washington letdown true to form last week against Stanford and turnovers and an inability to
stop the run proved costly. Statistically Washington has struggled on defense but the Huskies
have also played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. Washington has lost five in a row in
this series but this looks like a good bounce back opportunity and Notre Dame has struggled
as a small favorite in recent years particularly at home. NOTRE DAME BY 7
GEORGIA (-2½) Lsu 2:30 PM
Like Mississippi last week, LSU has risen to the top 5 in the rankings without much weight in
its resume. LSU has won both of its road games this season but they have failed to cover and
actually have been severely out-gained in both instances. Last week LSU had a 4-0 turnover
edge but gained just 12 first downs and needed a miraculous goal line stand to hold of
Mississippi State. This will be a second straight week on the road and the offense has not
been able to deliver consistent results. Last week QB Jordan Jefferson had a career best
passing day but it is telling that he had just 233 yards and this Tigers offense is not close to
the national championship teams of years past. Georgia has played a simply insane schedule
with SEC games under its belt and two marquee major conference non-conference games.
The Bulldogs already have a loss and the statistics have not been pretty but this is a team that
is more battle tested than just about any team in the country. Last season Georgia won in a
shootout and if that time of game ensues again the Bulldogs have the edge. GEORGIA BY 14
NAVY (NL) Air Force 2:30 PM
Navy has had much more recent success in this series but it has often been in an underdog
role. The opening effort against Ohio State has left Navy a bit overvalued since and Navy has
failed to cover the last two weeks. Without QB Jefferson last week the Falcons won with ease
although the defense created most of the big plays with six turnovers. Air Force had a huge
yardage edge in last season’s game yet lost by six so this will be a paybac k game even with
the long travel. Air Force has not played a tough schedule but this has been a very good
defensive team that could have some advantages this week although the offense will be
suspect unless the QB situation is back to normal. Navy struggled to pull away from Western
Kentucky last week and the defense has some clear problems up front. AIR FORCE BY 4
Georgia Tech (-4½) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM
Last week Mississippi State had a highly ranked LSU team on the ropes and fell just short but
it has been back-to-back encouraging efforts from this Bulldogs squad. LSU crushed Georgia
Tech in last year’s bowl game though it makes little sense to compare those situations. The
Yellow Jackets played their best game of the season last week in a dominant w in over North
Carolina and turnovers shaped some of the early momentum in that game. Georgia Tech has
Florida State up next and so far this is a team that has not been able to sustain consistent
efforts week -to-week. Georgia Tech is going to have success running the ball but efforts of the
MSU defense have been noticed as LSU had just 30 yards on the ground and could not move
the ball late with an opportunity to seal the game. Two weeks ago Vanderbilt has just 33 yards
rushing as the Bulldogs have addressed the problems they had against Auburn. In a
misleading final Tech won 38-7 last year but MSU had 23 first downs in the game and lost
with four turnovers despite 407 yards. Expect a close game here. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
Oklahoma (-6½) MIAMI, FL 11:00 AM
The U was supposedly back but Virginia Tech still owns the ACC as Miami looked much less
impressive with constant pressure. Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game
and though the QB situation is murky still, this game will be about defense. Value w ill be gone
on the Sooners after an overrated Miami team was exposed last week but for the season
Oklahoma has allowed just 14 points for the top scoring defense in the nation. The offense for
the Sooners will face a stiffer test this week but Miami has been mediocre at best on defense
with one good game and two lousy defensive efforts, albeit through a very tough schedule.
Two years ago Oklahoma cruised to a 51-13 win in Norman against Miami. The Hurricanes
had just 139 yards in that game and it will be tough to move the ball this week. Miami is just 2-
8 ATS in the last ten home games while Oklahoma has been a startlingly strong road favorite
the past two years. Miami got its wake-up call last week but this is a team that is still vastly
overrated while Oklahoma is hungry for a big win that will get some attention on the national
picture. Miami is facing a big scheduling disadvantage with all the big games early while OU
has been keying in on this opportunity since the opening loss while playing with two weeks to
prepare specifically for this game. OKLAHOMA BY 7
Penn State (-6½) ILLINOIS 2:30 PM
The Nittany Lions were supposed to be the savior for a weak Big Ten but that baton was
passed to Iowa as the Lions were upset in rough weather at home. Illinois was expected to the
be the sleeper team in the conference but so far the Illini can make a strong case as the
biggest disappointment in the nation with lopsided losses in its two biggest games. Even in its
FCS win Illinois allowed a lot of yardage and this has been a poor defensive team that has
completely failed on offense after a highly productive but losing 2008 season. Illinois has been
a dangerous underdog in recent years and Penn State could suffer a letdown from losing its
undefeated season. This will be the first road game of the year for Penn State and the Lions
are 0-4 ATS on the season and the strong statistics came against a very weak nonconference
schedule. It is very tough to trust Illinois here as they have shown absolutely
nothing this season but the two big losses both came away from home and this could be a
favorable situation if the team has any life left. Penn State will likely still get a lot of play this
week even though they have proved nothing this season. ILLINOIS BY 4
Michigan (PK) MICHIGAN STATE 11:00 AM
The Wolverines got all it could handle as a big favorite against Illinois last week and this will
be the first trip away from Ann Arbor all season for a very young team. The Michigan defense
can clearly be scored upon but the offense has been able to do enough to win while averaging
240 rushing yards per game. After a great 2008 season Michigan State is sitting at 1-3 and
the schedule is not getting any easier. The Spartans won in Ann Arbor last season dominating
the statistics but it was the first win in this series since ’01. While the Wolverines were
impressive in non-conference play they struggled in the Big Ten opener and are just 1-7 ATS
the past eight conference games. The QB situation has been much more promising for the
Wolverines but there were some mistakes last week and this is a team that is still reliant on
the running game. The Spartans could not stop Wisconsin on the ground last week and
Michigan appears to be in position for a rebound after surviving last week. Last week’s loss for
Michigan State was not as close as the final margin suggested. MICHIGAN BY 7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-6½) Western Michigan 2:30 PM
Northern Illinois fell into a classic letdown last week as they could not sustain the momentum
after upsetting Purdue. Idaho is a greatly improved team but the Huskies fell behind early and
were completely outplayed at home. Another home opportunity is waiting this week and this
will be a key battle in the MAC standings as these are the two teams most likely to unseat the
favorite Central Michigan in the West. After losses to two Big ten teams Western Michigan has
had back-to-back wins and the Broncos can put up big numbers in the air which should be a
concern after Idaho passed with great efficiency last week. Northern Illinois should be the
superior rushing team which may be a key advantage for a home underdog. NIU has had
great success in this series, covering in nine of the last eleven meetings and the Western
defense had trouble containing Hofstra last week so there could be some issues. NIU BY 7
BOWLING GREEN (-2½) Ohio 3:00 PM
The Bobcats gave Tennessee a tough game last week and this could be a tough situation
facing another road game and going against a Bowling Green team hungry for a win after
three consecutive losses. The Falcons have played a tough schedule and few teams have
been able to compete with Boise State. Ohio’s wins came against a Cal-Poly team going
through transition and a North Texas team that lost its QB but the losses have been
impressive, staying close with Connecticut earlier this season as well. This will be the third
road game in four weeks however and Bowling Green has won and covered in six of the last
seven meetings. Last season the Falcons severely out-gained the Bobcats for an easy win
and Bowling Green could be undervalued coming off a blowout loss. Both teams have failed to
rush the ball effectively this year and Ohio may be out of gas even though the Bobcats have
shown more potential and probably will be the better team . BOWLING GREEN BY 7
NEVADA (-4) Unlv 3:05 PM
Last week the Wolf Pack played as rare underdogs that severely out-rushed its opponent but
lost and failed to cover, at home no less. Nevada is 0-3 in a season that had fairly high
expectations but the schedule has been tough and the conference season is still wide open.
UNLV has played three consecutive nail-bitter games and the Rebels have come up short in
two of those three games including the conference opener last week. Nevada has won and
covered each of the last four meetings between these teams and last year the Wolf Pack
posted over 600 yards in the game. Although Nevada missed the cover last week they are 19-
8-1 at home since ’04 and UNLV will have a hard time playing another big game on the road.
Nevada has given up serious passing yardage this season but the defense does get pressure
on the quarterback and can force some mistakes in a favorable match-up. NEVADA BY 10
Colorado State (-3½) IDAHO 9:30 PM
Reputation makes the Rams a favorite in this match-up but Idaho has been the more
impressive team. Colorado State did out-gain BYU in a loss last week and the Rams have
solid wins over Nevada and Colorado on the season. Colorado State allowed a lot of yards
however and this will be the second straight week on the road while coming off a big
conference opener. Idaho is now 3-1 and although it has not been an overwhelming schedule
the Vandals have a pretty good team this year. QB play is the best it has been in years and
two of the three wins came in road games, something almost unthinkable in past seasons.
Colorado State has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites while Idaho has
gone 8-2 in the last ten as underdogs. Idaho has featured an impressive passing offense while
holding its own on defense. Idaho is 4-0 ATS on the season and Colorado State could get
caught looking ahead to Utah the following week as Idaho is a program that has had little
recent success. This will be a huge opportunity for Idaho with a nationally televised game at
home and the Vandals will deliver. IDAHO BY 7
Iowa State (-3) Kansas State @Kansas City, MO 2:00 PM
Kansas State features an attractive schedule this season but the Wildcats have not proven
good enough to take advantage as there are already two losses on the board. Iowa State is
very quietly 3-1 and the loss to Iowa seems forgivable at this point. The Cyclones have been
solid on defense and in the one loss they were burned by turnovers. ISU is also rushing for
207 yards per game which should pay dividends in the Big XII schedule. K-State is allowing
just 16 points per game but the schedule has featured two FCS foes and a Sun Belt team that
actually beat the Wildcats. Kansas State won in this series last season by eight but the
Cyclones posted 628 yards in that game but a 3-0 turnover margin proved costly. This year’s
game will be at a neutral site in Kansas City and Iowa State fans should be well represented
as it is just about a three hour trip from Ames, only slightly further than from Manhattan. This
looks like a better scheduling spot for the Cyclones who may be the better team anyhow. As
Kansas State has inflated statistics. IOWA STATE BY 10
ARIZONA STATE (-4½) Oregon State 6:00 PM
Both Pac-10 squads were losers last week in close games and Oregon State was a two-point
winner in this series last season. The ASU passing game has been very inefficient this season
but the Sun Devil defense has impressed. A weak early season schedule created great
numbers on defense for ASU but last week’s effort against Georgia backed up that this is
going to be a tough team to score on as the Bulldogs were held in check. The ASU offense
has done little however, even in two light early season games and the Sun Devils have been
fortunate with the top turnover margin in the nation. Oregon State has now lost two straight
games, both at home where there used to be a dominant home field edge. OSU has a strong
rush defense but this is a team that has been unreliable and actually are very close to being
on a 3-game win streak as they were lucky to beat UNLV. Arizona State has had great
success in this series and last week’s commendable effort against a quality SEC team should
build some confidence. ASU has also been an exceptional home favorite in recent years while
the Beavers are facing long trav el after a tough loss. ARIZONA STATE BY 7
OREGON (-31) Washington State 8:15 PM
In one of the more shocking results of the week Oregon crushed a Cal team that was gaining
a serious national buzz. The Ducks have played an incredibly tough schedule and an ugly
opening loss may pay dividends as it all came together last week. Oregon has disappointed
offensively but the Ducks posted over 500 yards last week in a complete rout of the Bears.
Expecting a repeat gem performance is asking a lot but Washington State is a good foe to
improve on offensive statistics. The Cougars played very respectably against USC last week
to easily cover despite minimal offensive output. The defense was not a complete sieve as in
the past so there were some encouraging signs. Statistically there is little to like about what
the Cougars have done and Oregon has proven to have an excellent home field in any
situation. Oregon will be overvalued off such a convincing win but Washington State may also
get a little more respect this week as well. Oregon has seen some tough stretches on defense
but this is a team on the rise that should see the numbers climb. OREGON BY 35
BAYLOR (NL) Kent State 6:00 PM
After a rough loss against Connecticut, Baylor rebounded with a blowout win last week,
dominating both sides of the ball against Northwestern State. Kent pulled away for a win and
cover last week but the Flashes were out-gained 552-250 against Miami, Ohio. Kent
completed just five passes last week but also picked up five turnovers and received a kickoff
return touchdown. Statistically few teams have been as bad on offense as Kent, scoring just
17 points per game and producing just 268 yards per game. The schedule has not been
exceptionally difficult either as there have been three home games. Baylor plays Oklahoma
next but this is not a program that can overlook a win opportunity. The Bears failed in their last
attempt as home favorites but that has been a profitable role in recent years while Kent has
struggled in almost every situation away from home. Baylor needs to win big in a game like
this to prove it has taken the next step and Kent should struggle to keep up. Baylor is a
difficult team to pass against and the Bears are coming off a great performance on both sides
of the ball last week but QB Griffin’s injury makes this tough. BAYLOR BY 24
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-8) Memphis 2:30 PM
Central Florida has covered in every game this season and this is a sound defensive team
that is allowing just over 21 points per game. Memphis is just 1-3 with a lone FCS win and the
Tigers are yet to cover in a game this season. Central Florida has won S/U in this series each
of the last five years and but the Knights have scored 26 points or more in each of those
meetings, something they have done just once all season. Memphis has not been a great
defensive team in recent years but this is a squad that normally can score some points and
that may happen as the schedule plays out the next few weeks. UCF is already 0-2 in
conference play so this will be a critical gam e but the Knights are not an easy team to trust
laying points at home and Central Florida was fortunate to cover last week with a late score in
game they never were a serious threat in. Middle Tennessee and Marshall are teams that are
better than the current projections suggest so Memphis may not be that bad. UCF BY 6
STANFORD (-6) Ucla 2:30 PM
With Cal getting wiped out last week the door is open for UCLA to take charge in the Pac -10.
Stanford also is a threat, already with a 2-0 conference record. The Bruins have been a very
effective defensive team with only 38 points scored upon them in three games and all three
games have come against decent quality competition. The Bruins have had shaky offensive
play and the QB situation is still less than ideal with Kevin Prince possibly still out. Stanford is
one of the top rushing teams in the nation but the schedule has not featured a high quality
defense yet. The Cardinal has also featured strong special team play which is often an
overlooked area. Stanford has now covered in eight consecutive home games with last week’s
win over Washington and UCLA has not had a lot of success in this series despite some
recent down years from the Cardinal. Last season UCLA won 23-20, scoring with ten seconds
to go in the game, so this could be a revenge spot for the Cardinal, but UCLA is in a favorable
position coming off a bye week before the conference opener. UCLA BY 3
TEXAS TECH (-35) New Mexico 2:30 PM
The Red Raiders let one slip away last week for a second straight loss and the opportunity is
there for a blowout win to get back on track this week. New Mexico is going through an
extreme transition and the Lobos have lost S/U and ATS in all four games this season. Last
week the Lobos lost at home against New Mexico State despite a big yardage edge in the
match-up. New Mexico is gaining 262 yards per game while allowing 421 yards per game and
if the Red Raiders are motivated the passing game should have a field day. Texas Tech has
been a solid home favorite in past years even with some inflated spreads and there may be a
little value back on TT with the losses the past two weeks. Texas Tech has had to play on the
road the last two weeks and being back at home should provide a boost. TEXAS TECH BY 42
Ohio State (-16½) INDIANA 6:00 PM
Since losing the big game to USC, Ohio State has outscored opponents 68-0 in two games as
the defense has really stepped up. Indiana has scored 26 points over the last four meetings
between these teams but the Hoosiers played commendably last week against Michigan in a
narrow loss. Although Indiana has needed great finishes in a few of their unimpressive wins,
they have now out-gained its opponent in every single game this year. The Hoosiers are also
perfect ATS on the season. Ben Chappell’s completion percentage has been far superior to
Terrelle Pryor’s and the Hoosiers have had a decent running game. Michigan eventually got
some yardage against Indiana on the ground last week but it took 50 carries as Indiana’s run
defense has been a strong point. Ohio State has had overwhelming success in this series
while Indiana has been worthless as a home underdog. OHIO STATE BY 24
Tulsa (-14) RICE 6:30 PM
The Golden Hurricane have delivered three dominant wins and one blowout loss and last year
even in Rice’s strong season Tulsa beat the Owls 63-28. The passing numbers for Tulsa have
been much stronger as Rice has battled through injuries with three quarterbacks already
seeing time. Rice is 9-3 in the last twelve games as home underdogs but the Owls failed in
that position last week. It has been a far more difficult schedule for the Owls but statistically
the defense has been terrible and the offense has dropped considerably from last season.
Rice has had trouble protecting the QB with over three sacks allowed per game, part of the
reason for the banged up backfield. Tulsa will be playing its fourth road game in five weeks
but the Hurricane has already won and covered twice as road favorites. TULSA BY 17
Arkansas (-1) Texas A&M @Irving, TX 6:30 PM
The schedule has been light but Texas A&M is off to a 3-0 start and the Aggies technically
own the most productive offense in the nation. The defense is putting great pressure on
opposing QBs and there has been a balance on offense that will make the Aggies a serious
threat in the Big XII after years of irrelevance. This will be the first game away from home and
though Arkansas has lost the last two games the Razorbacks should benefit from already
having played two big conference games before entering this stage. In great contrast to past
teams, Arkansas is one of the top passing offenses in the nation and the defensive numbers
should be measured in terms of already faced two high caliber opponents. This will be a
critical game for Arkansas as the rest of the early season schedule is challenging and the
Razors. Siding with the SEC usually makes sense in these types of match-ups although taking
the passing team over the rushing team has some risks. ARKANSAS BY 7
TENNESSEE (-2) Auburn 6:45 PM
Take away the big opening win and Tennessee is a team that is really struggling to put points
on the board. Auburn failed to cover a monster spot last week but the Tigers added to the
great rushing and scoring numbers. The Tigers have not yet played a road game this season
and they have failed to cover in each of the last six away games. Tennessee has had some
recent success in this series but this will be a critical battle between two new SEC coaches.
Auburn has won S/U the last two years but Tennessee has covered in both games. The Vols
have played the tougher schedule and Auburn should have lost to West Virginia and after four
at home the Tigers could get a reality check against a superior defensive team that needs to
win a major game after failing the first two tries. Auburn’s rushing attack will slow here and the
QB mistakes Tennessee has had could occur for the Tigers as well. TENNESSEE BY 7
Usc (-5½) CALIFORNIA 7:00 PM
Both teams have losses already as the early Pac -10 standings feature several other teams in
the lead. This is still a huge showdown though a bit less meaningful after USC was upset and
Cal was embarrassed last week. Cal has had success in this series but the Bears have not
been a great home underdog and it is hard to tell how a team will react to such a bad loss.
USC has now failed to cover in three straight games and even with QB Barkley back last week
the offense showed signs of weakness as there were only modest yardage edges against
lowly Washington State. USC’s defense still owns dominating numbers and the emotional
state for the Bears has to be questioned at this point. Wins over Maryland and Minnesota do
not look overly impressive at this point and USC has already played two tough road games
this season and that experience should pay off. Cal never can quite get over the hump and
this appears to be another spot to fall just short. USC BY 3
TCU (-27½) Smu 7:00 PM
The Horned Frogs have an elite defense but this could be a scary match-up. TCU just won at
Clemson in a hard fought game that was critical for the season success. Now they must face
an all-out pass attack that will run the secondary up and down the field. You have to be a
pretty bad team to lose to Washington State but the Mustangs were in position to win that
game on the road and could easily be 3-0. This is an improved Mustangs team that will find
ways to get on the scoreboard. TCU has played well in the heavy favorite role but SMU has
had two weeks to prepare for this game and TCU has big Mountain West games in the near
future with the stake in the season elevated with two big non-conference wins versus the ACC
to start the year. Last year TCU won in a blowout but SMU had covered the previous two
seasons and the Horned Frogs have not been truly tested on offense yet in a situation where
they need to score some serious points in a higher scoring game. TCU BY 21
SAN DIEGO STATE (-16½) New Mexico State 7:00 PM
The Aztecs are just 1-3 but all three losses came on the road and there have been some
encouraging signs. Former New Mexico coach Rocky Long is now on the SDSU staff so he
will be familiar with New Mexico State who is also going through transition. San Diego State
has not often been favored recently but they have performed well in those situations and New
Mexico State has been a dreadful offensive team so far this season. The Aggies are barely
scoring 14 points per game and last week’s win over New Mexico was extremely fortunate as
there was a large yardage deficit. This will be the second straight week on the road for the
Aggies and coming off a big win this could be a bad spot. SAN DIEGO ST BY 21
Houston (-16) UTEP 8:00 PM
The Cougars are now getting serious press as a potential BCS buster but they were very
fortunate to win last week and this is a team that has disappointed in seemingly easy games
in past years. UTEP is 1-3 and the Miners were crushed at Texas last week and it has been a
disappointing showing so far for a team that was expected to be one of the best in C-USA.
Value on UTEP is available but the statistics all around have been horrendous. Both teams
have been out-rushed in every game this season and Houston is 2-7 ATS in the past nine
road games. UTEP has lost badly in both home games this season and last year Houston
scored a narrow win in a game that they had 710 yards. It is hard to see where UTEP makes
stops in this game but Houston will get its best effort and the Cougars are overvalued based
on two wins, one that came in an incredibly favorable spot and the other that required a
miraculous comeback drive. HOUSTON BY 13
IOWA (-21) Arkansas State 11:00 AM
Look for Iowa to give a dud performance this week coming off a huge win over Penn State.
Iowa is 3-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite since ’06 and Arkansas State is one of the top
teams in the Sun Belt, narrowly missing knocking out the favorite Troy last week. Arkansas
State rushes for 190 yards per game and the opportunities will be there this week. Iowa plays
Michigan next week making this a very tough sandwich game to get up for and it will be a
huge opportunity for a Red Wolves team that has scored some big upsets in past years
including beating Texas A&M last season. Iowa’s 4-0 start has come with significant turnover
help and very limited offensive production so this will be a tough team to trust laying a big
number, particularly in a challenging situation. IOWA BY 13
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-3) Wyoming 3:00 PM
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 despite being one of the better Sun Belt squads in recent years.
Wyoming pulled out a narrow win last week while FAU was on the losing end of a close game
despite a significant yardage edge. Although the Owls lost last week the opening two losses
should be excused as high quality competition was in place. This will be the type of upset
opportunity that has suited Florida Atlantic in recent seasons. Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS in the
last 21 as road games and the Cowboys are scoring just 17 points per game with limited
yardage production. For the year Wyoming has been out-gained by almost 100 yards per
game despite being 2-2. Wyoming failed to score in its only road game this season and this
seems like a good spot to fade the Cowboys against a desperate 0-3 squad. Florida Atlantic is
well coached and there are some quality players in place for a team that has recovered from
slow starts in past years as well. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 7
UL-MONROE (-3½) Florida International 2:30 PM
Monroe has won and covered the last three years in this series and despite playing three of
four on the road to open the year the Warhawks have two wins. FIU is still winless and they
failed in what seemed to be an opportune situation at home. The Panthers have been a solid
ATS road team the past two years and but he passing game has been very inefficient so far
this season. FIU is allowing 492 yards per game and this will be a third road games in four
contests for the Panthers. FIU has not run the ball well nor stopped it well. Monroe is a diligent
rushing team that should eventually take control and run away with this win. MONROE BY 11
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2009
TROY (NL) Middle Tennessee State 7:00 PM
Call the Green Light Report for our pick on this game!
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 WASHINGTON (-7½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 4 BUFFALO (NL) over Miami
RATING 3 DENVER (NL) over Dallas
RATING 2 DETROIT (+10½) over Chicago
RATING 1 CLEVELAND (+4½) over Cincinnati
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and all lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2009
HOUSTON (-9½) Oakland (42½) 12:00 PM
In the short history of the franchise Houston has been favored by over a touchdown just four
times and only twice this high (0-2 ATS). The Raiders have had less than 170 yards of offense
in back-to-back weeks but Oakland could still have a rushing edge in this game as the Texans
have averaged just 70 yards per game on the ground. Oakland is getting the worst QB play in
the league with the possible exception of Cleveland as former #1 pick Russell has been
unbelievably inefficient and opponents know that that the Raiders have little to work with if the
running game is stopped. Houston has featured one of the worst statistical defenses in the
league, allowing 28 points per game and allowing opponents to convert 50 percent of 3rd
downs. Oakland is a tough team to back but with the superior defense and running game a
near double-digit underdog is attractive. TEXANS BY 6
Tennessee (-1) JACKSONVILLE (41) 12:00 PM
The Titans can’t possibly be this bad right? That’s what we and many others thought last week
but despite a sound yardage edge Tennessee managed four turnovers and many other
mistakes to move to 0-3. Jacksonville narrowly adverted 0-3 with a win last week as these
teams both played close and entertaining back-and-forth games. Statistically these teams
have been similar as the offensive production has been decent but defensively both teams
have been a bit worse than anticipated. Some of that should be chalked up to the schedule as
both teams have faced quality offensive teams. Jacksonville has had little success in this
series, losing and failing ATS in both games last season. With Indianapolis and New England
the next two weeks this is an incredibly important game for the Titans. Jacksonville will be a
team that gets on a run mid-season as the schedule is about to soften tremendously but this is
a serious do-or-die situation for the Titans. TITANS BY 3
NEW ENGLAND (-1) Baltimore (44) 12:00 PM
The Ravens have been incredibly impressive this season but keep in mind two wins and much
of the statistical leverage came in two home wins against teams that are now 0-3. Baltimore’s
schedule will be getting a whole lot tougher as the next five opponents are currently 12-3
combined. The Ravens were 12-4 ATS last year in the regular season and are 3-0 so far this
season and riding this team has been very profitable but the value is starting to catch up. New
England was the consensus NFL favorite to start the season and the results have been
mediocre, creating a very cheap price at home. The offense has struggled to convert
touchdowns but this is still the fifth most productive unit in the NFL and that includes a game
against the current #3 defense. The Patriots picked up their first ATS win last week but this is
a team on a 17-3 S/U run at home since 2007. PATRIOTS BY 4
Cincinnati (-4½) CLEVELAND (38½) 12:00 PM
The Bengals got the big win to really legitimize what looks like a great turnaround but this is
the type of game that past Bengals teams often let slip away. Cleveland has been atrocious
offensively this season and neither QB is accomplishing anything positive as the line is not
offering protection and there is no running game to take the pressure off. The Browns have
averaged just 218 yards per game while allowing nearly double that total. In fairness the
teams Cleveland has played are a collective 9-0 and two of the three games have been on the
road. Although Cincinnati was unfortunate to lose the opening game with a fluke play the
Bengals have caught a lot of breaks the last two weeks and Cincinnati is averaging less than
300 yards per game. It is risky to back the Browns but it’s a good spot. BROWNS BY 3
NY GIANTS (-9½) Kansas City (42½) 12:00 PM
Historically the Chiefs have been a play -on home underdog but that simply has not been the
case in recent years. The Chiefs have had the third worst offensive produc tion in the league
and QB Cassel has not been the answer. Kansas City has been respectable defensively
considering they have faced two of the top offenses in the league. No team has been better
on both sides of the ball then the Giants and with some injuries last week New York delivered
one of the most impressive performances ever in Tampa Bay. This will oddly be a rare third
consecutive road game for New York so there could be some wear on the Giants. New York is
12-4 the last four years as road favorites so even with a steep price and a tough travel
situation it is tough to consider fading the Giants. Kansas City simply has not had a chance to
get in sync with all the changes as the schedule has been too tough. GIANTS BY 17
CHICAGO (-10½) Detroit (38) 12:00 PM
The Bears caught some breaks last week as Seattle missed critical field goals but it was a
huge road win to keep pace in the now very competitive NFC North. Detroit snapped the
historic losing streak last week and there could be some degree of letdown but this is a team
that has competed well all season an was bound to win at some point. Chicago is a tough
team to trust as a big favorite as the Bears have surprisingly been one of the worst rushing
teams in the NFL. Detroit has also been a very strong ATS team as a big underdog on the
road and the two losses came against teams that are now 3-0. BEARS BY 6
WASHINGTON (-7½) Tampa Bay (37½) 12:00 PM
The Redskins will look to rebound from an embarrassing loss but Washington is scoring less
than 14 points per game. Tampa Bay delivered one of the all-time worst offensive
performances last week and the Byron Leftwich experiment may be over as Josh Johnson
came in last week. The Bucs were competitive the first two games but now 0-3 and facing
NFC East road opponents the next two weeks there appears to be little hope for success this
season. As bad as the offense has been, the defense has had greater issues, allowing 432
yards per game and 30 points per game. This is a not a Washington team that inspires
confidence but the defense has been effective and there will be a lot of pressure on the
players and staff to bounce back following an ugly loss. REDSKINS BY 14
INDIANAPOLIS (NL) Seattle 12:00 PM
The Colts had delivered two narrow escapes but then came up big with a blowout win and a
huge passing day in primetime last week. The Colts will host a Seattle team that has lost
back-to-back games and is possibly still without QB Hasselbeck this week. Seattle out-gained
the Bears and Coach Mora was searing after the game regarding the missed field goals.
Statistically the Seahawks have been a little above average on both sides of the ball but given
a manageable early season schedule 1-2 is a huge disappointment. Indianapolis has some
concerns on defense with Dwight Freeney banged up and Bob Sanders still out. The Colts
have proven to be able to win any style of game. COLTS BY 10
NEW ORLEANS (-6½) NY Jets (46) 3:05 PM
This didn’t look like much of a game when the schedule was released but it will be the game
of the week with a 3-0 showdown between to upstart squads. New Orleans has been the most
productive offensive team in the league and the Saints did it on the ground last week. New
Orleans was caught in a much tougher battle than the final score indicates but the team is still
averaging 40 points per game. Offense meets defense this week and the Jets have forced
opposing QBs into awful performances this season. Statistically other teams have been a bit
better on defense but New York has done it against quality offensive teams. Playing on the
road will be another challenge but this is a team that clearly has a lot going its way. The Saints
have been marginal at home in recent years and will likely be overvalued. JETS BY 3
MIAMI (NL) Buffalo 3:05 PM
In the last two games Miami has rushed effectively and controlled the clock but the Dolphins
are settling for far too many field goals and the result is an 0-3 start for last year’s AFC East
champion. Buffalo is 1-2 with two losses against quality opponents in close games but there
have been some problems for the Bills as the offense struggled considerably at home last
week. Chad Pennington left last week’s game and he is still questionable at this point. Buffalo
has had a tremendous edge in the last five years in this series covering in eight of the last ten
and the Dolphins have been a horrible ATS home team. BILLS BY 10
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) St. Louis 3:15 PM
Injuries will be a big factor in this line as QB Marc Bulger is banged up and RB Frank Gore is
likely out taking away a key offensive player for both teams. San Francisco had a golden
opportunity to start 3-0 last week with a brutal loss but the Niners have shown a lot of positive
things this season and should be considered a viable threat in the NFC and the NFC West
favorite. St. Louis finally got the running game going a bit last week but this has been a
pathetic offensive team and Kyle Boller has not proven to be starter material in the NFL
despite several chances. San Francisco seems to be a team that can bounce back from a
tough loss quickly as the new coaching staff is getting great respect. 49ERS BY 14
DENVER (NL) Dallas 3:15 PM
The Broncos have been the biggest surprise of the season at 3-0 but the schedule has been
suspect. Still this is a team that has won twice on the road and has the best defensive
statistics in the league, by a fairly wide margin. Dallas is coming off back-to-back primetime
games so this could be a tough situation even though Denver has been a horrendous ATS
home team but the Broncos are 3-0 S/U and ATS this season. It is hard to say how good
Denver is but Dallas has had big problems on defense and still seems to turn the ball over too
often on offense to trust on the road. We will know much more about Dallas after Monday’s
game but even a nice win makes this a tough trip on a short week. BRONCOS BY 13
PITTSBURGH (-6) San Diego (41½) 7:20 PM
The Super Bowl champs seemed to improve its maligned running game last week but it was
not enough to win as the Steelers uncharacteristically blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead.
The Chargers have had virtually no success in this series over the years and the Steelers
have been impressive home favorites with covers in five of the last six. Last season the
Chargers lost by one in the infamous game in Pittsburgh where the closing touchdown was
oddly wiped away to keep the cover with the Chargers but this should be a tough spot for San
Diego facing long distance travel. The Steelers have faced a tough schedule including the last
two on the road so this could be a great bounce back effort. San Diego has not been able to
run the ball with Tomlinson out of the lineup and the Steelers have fared well in shootout type
games even though Rivers has posted big numbers this year. STEELERS BY 10
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2009
MINNESOTA (-3) Green Bay (46) 7:30 PM
The Vikings have really not been that impressive offensively this season averaging just 318
yards per game. The Vikings have however come through when it counts to deliver a 3-0 start.
Defensively the Vikings have some of the best numbers in the league but they have faced
three marginal offensive teams and this will be by far the biggest threat against a defense that
has looked more vulnerable than the past few seasons. The Packers have had great success
in the underdog role in this series and this will be a much bigger game for the Packers than for
most of the Vikings with one small exception. Green Bay has shown a lot of problems against
the run which makes this appear like a bad match-up but the Packers have some key play -
makers in the secondary that could take advantage of potential mistakes. Minnesota’s home
field edge is not as significant when the Packers are in town and this should be tight game
that the Packers have the chance to take. PACKERS BY 3
Last Week's College Stats Last Week's College Stats
Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO Match-Up Line Final FD Rushing Passing TO
Mississippi -4 10 14 40 139 8 22 109 1 New Mexico State 44.5 20 17 56 122 14 24 96 2
South Carolina 51 16 15 34 65 16 34 220 1 New Mexico -11.5 17 13 25 150 16 28 206 1
Missouri -7.5 31 23 34 78 25 40 414 1 Washington State 57 6 18 46 85 16 31 144 3
Nevada 61 21 23 45 218 17 29 146 2 USC -45 27 14 29 156 13 22 247 2
Wake Forest 40.5 24 21 31 142 25 35 354 3 Arizona 46 37 25 33 134 25 34 254 0
Boston College -1 27 21 45 170 18 29 228 1 Oregon State -3 32 28 30 104 31 49 303 2
Illinois 49.5 0 14 34 82 15 29 88 3 UL-Monroe 56.5 27 21 40 157 18 25 207 1
Ohio State -14 30 19 46 236 8 13 82 2 Florida Atlantic -3.5 25 25 33 151 30 51 347 1
Minnesota -1 35 22 42 166 15 26 186 1 Louisiana 54 0 14 37 102 15 27 120 3
Northwestern 49.5 24 23 29 64 32 47 309 3 Nebraska -30 55 21 34 133 22 26 300 0
Indiana 53.5 33 20 33 197 21 38 270 1 Western Kentucky 51 22 22 33 158 22 29 276 3
Michigan -18 36 20 50 149 13 24 223 2 Navy -30.5 38 26 64 373 4 5 100 1
Buffalo 46 13 20 30 99 26 41 281 5 Troy 50.5 30 29 37 134 34 49 373 3
Temple -3.5 37 16 40 198 6 17 95 1 Arkansas State -3 27 13 25 70 15 27 235 3
Michigan State 52.5 30 23 22 90 24 46 396 4 Mid Tenn State -6 37 23 45 187 21 43 269 0
Wisconsin -1.5 38 22 50 193 19 31 243 1 North Texas 56 21 25 25 157 35 54 313 5
TCU 40.5 14 19 40 162 17 26 226 0 Toledo 59 41 20 34 223 18 32 343 1
Clemson -2.5 10 17 32 117 17 37 192 0 Florida Intl -1 31 21 42 148 19 43 224 2
Rutgers 49.5 34 14 49 207 4 13 42 0 Rhode Island 10 5 32 29 14 23 119 3
Maryland -1 13 12 24 28 21 38 271 5 Connecticut NL 52 25 42 199 23 30 289 3
Boise State -17 49 23 35 267 19 25 262 0 Tennessee Tech 7 9 25 -19 12 19 126 1
Bowling Green 52 14 18 33 93 21 42 189 3 Kansas State NL 49 24 60 296 10 11 152 0
Ohio 44 23 15 17 25 30 52 319 1 McNeese State 32 25 48 252 16 25 221 2
Tennessee -22 34 24 39 177 17 34 222 1 Tulane NL 42 19 39 205 10 13 222 2
Central Florida 43 14 19 24 70 21 34 266 5 Grambling State 6 17 42 156 11 26 104 2
East Carolina -9.5 19 23 38 110 27 41 293 3 Oklahoma State NL 56 23 43 321 17 23 266 4
Fresno State 63 20 25 57 290 16 27 153 1 NC Central 14 8 28 70 8 19 111 1
Cincinnati -17 28 15 16 57 18 26 300 0 Duke NL 49 28 41 233 25 37 254 1
Akron 53.5 21 15 37 69 12 19 127 1 Maine 24 20 28 90 25 36 340 2
Central Michigan -15 48 30 53 326 23 31 197 1 Syracuse NL 41 20 31 115 21 28 270 1
LSU -12 30 12 31 30 15 28 233 0 Sam Houston St 3 13 42 141 8 21 100 2
Mississippi State 46 26 21 46 151 17 40 223 4 Tulsa NL 56 21 44 238 14 19 278 1
Army 47 10 19 48 186 11 26 130 1 Northwestern St 13 17 43 133 19 31 115 4
Iowa State -10 31 18 43 201 11 20 175 0 Baylor NL 68 25 33 283 16 25 284 1
Marshall 49 27 14 41 243 11 19 124 1 Hofstra 10 19 35 140 18 30 189 2
Memphis -3 16 15 27 119 17 35 232 2 Western Michigan NL 24 26 32 133 34 43 338 3
UAB 64.5 19 13 35 229 9 25 74 0 Cal-Poly 9 17 43 179 10 26 135 2
Texas A&M -14.5 56 30 51 236 25 31 308 1 San Jose State NL 19 16 31 242 18 32 172 1
Southern Miss 58.5 28 21 26 64 28 42 331 2 Southern Utah 34 23 31 105 26 53 262 3
Kansas -11.5 35 32 45 102 30 42 331 2 Utah State NL 53 25 44 259 16 22 345 3
San Diego State 52.5 14 16 25 39 25 41 284 6
Air Force -17.5 26 12 58 243 3 7 51 0
Vanderbilt -7.5 36 23 43 216 23 41 268 1
Rice 49.5 17 14 40 160 12 32 122 4
Ball State 54.5 30 19 44 146 18 30 114 2
Auburn -30.5 54 21 34 254 21 29 306 2
UNLV -3.5 27 26 32 126 26 45 260 4
Wyoming 46.5 30 19 32 109 25 39 248 0 Last Week's NFL Stats
Arkansas 55.5 7 14 26 63 16 41 191 1 TITANS 36 17 17 30 127 15 37 159 4
Alabama -17.5 35 18 41 134 17 24 291 0 JETS -1 24 13 31 83 17 30 146 2
Florida -20 41 25 52 362 9 16 133 1 JAGUARS 47.5 31 24 31 184 18 30 214 1
Kentucky 53.5 7 11 32 86 14 31 93 2 TEXANS -4.5 24 23 22 111 26 35 286 2
Arizona State 48.5 17 14 28 88 10 32 116 1 CHIEFS 39 14 11 29 99 15 19 97 1
Georgia -13.5 20 17 31 92 17 31 242 3 EAGLES -7.5 34 21 27 93 24 36 327 1
California -5.5 3 15 32 77 13 36 130 2 BROWNS 38.5 3 11 23 71 17 27 115 4
Oregon 55.5 42 26 52 236 25 32 288 3 RAVENS -13.5 34 28 28 142 26 37 337 1
South Florida 51 17 16 42 153 8 21 215 2 GIANTS -6.5 24 27 49 226 16 27 171 0
Florida State -14 7 17 27 19 25 37 269 4 BUCCANEERS 46 0 5 10 28 11 26 58 1
North Carolina 45 7 8 18 17 11 26 137 3 REDSKINS -6 14 22 14 65 27 41 325 1
Georgia Tech -3 24 24 69 317 7 11 89 0 LIONS 39.5 19 23 36 154 21 36 227 0
Idaho 53.5 34 24 44 207 18 23 270 0 PACKERS -6.5 36 24 37 152 13 23 250 0
Northern Illinois -14.5 31 18 30 128 17 24 184 0 RAMS 43 17 22 33 149 19 35 187 3
Colorado State 55.5 23 26 28 66 30 50 372 2 49ERS 39.5 24 13 26 58 15 25 188 1
BYU -19.5 42 20 34 132 18 29 241 2 VIKINGS -7 27 19 27 94 24 46 283 1
Pittsburgh -2 31 11 23 94 12 23 206 0 FALCONS 45.5 10 13 17 58 17 28 199 1
NC State 47.5 38 27 46 208 21 35 322 1 PATRIOTS -4.5 26 28 39 168 25 42 277 0
Washington 54 14 16 27 100 16 31 190 3 BEARS -2.5 25 14 28 85 21 27 233 2
Stanford -9 34 22 50 321 7 14 103 2 SEAHAWKS 37.5 19 19 28 103 26 44 243 2
Miami, OH 47 19 26 38 215 31 53 337 5 SAINTS -5.5 27 21 38 222 16 29 156 1
Kent State -7 29 13 41 173 5 11 77 0 BILLS 51.5 7 13 21 89 21 36 154 2
Louisville 52.5 14 18 35 80 15 33 181 3 DOLPHINS 45.5 13 19 31 149 18 31 140 2
Utah -14 30 19 42 214 17 22 202 1 CHARGERS -5.5 23 19 28 69 18 33 286 1
Miami, FL -2.5 7 12 34 59 9 25 150 2 STEELERS -3.5 20 17 28 102 22 31 271 1
Virginia Tech 46.5 31 17 55 272 4 9 98 1 BENGALS 37 23 19 19 100 20 37 173 0
Notre Dame -6.5 24 23 43 167 20 36 216 1 BRONCOS -2.5 23 21 45 215 13 23 157 1
Purdue 59.5 21 16 26 74 22 38 289 2 RAIDERS 38 3 9 23 95 12 21 42 3
UTEP 64 7 7 25 9 9 26 44 5 COLTS 49 31 22 31 126 24 35 379 1
Texas -37 64 32 42 304 33 41 335 3 CARDINALS -3 10 21 12 24 32 54 299 3
Iowa 40.5 21 17 37 163 11 26 135 2 PANTHERS 48
Penn State -9.5 10 15 33 109 12 32 198 4 COWBOYS -8.5
Texas Tech -2.5 28 31 32 163 30 47 321 2
Houston 75.5 29 29 36 144 38 58 435 1
4th Quarter Covers:
Boston College led 24-10 late in
the 4th quarter but a furious Wake
Forest rally pushed the game to
OT where BC stopped Wake
Forest with a fumble recovery
after putting up three in the first
OT possession. Northwestern
rallied late in the third quarter to
take a 24-21 lead but Minnesota
scored midway through the fourth
to regain the lead. Northwestern
had the ball late but a fumble
early in the series sealed the
game for the Gophers. Clemson
led TCU 10-7 at halftime and that
lead held up until TCU put
together a scoring drive early in
the fourth quarter. Clemson had
two long drives in the fourth
quarter that bogged down in the
red zone with a missed field goal
and a failed 4th down conversion.
Rutgers trailed Maryland 13 -10 at
halftime and though the Knights
were covering 17-13 entering the
fourth they created a misleading
final with 17 points in the final
quarter. East Carolina led by just
six entering the fourth quarter but
looked on the way to a cover as
they padded the lead to 12 in the
fourth, but Central Florida scored
with just over a minute to go to
take back the cover. Air Force
hardly played a great game on
offense and the inexperience at
QB was apparent but the Falcons
were leading by 24 entering the
fourth quarter until San Diego
State scored two meaningless
touchdowns in the final 3:26 to
take the cover. In a back-and-forth
4th quarter Colorado State pulled
within eleven and later within
twelve but BYU got the final score
to push the margin to 19, covering
the early numbers but still an ATS
loss at the closing figure. In a
closely lined game Pittsburgh led
by 14 late in the third quarter but
NC State scored the final three
touchdowns to win by seven
including two scores in the fourth
quarter. Notre Dame led 17 -7
entering the fourth on pace to
cover but Purdue took the lead
late in the game before Notre
Dame pulled out another closing
minute win, though Purdue took
the cash. Texas Tech led the
entire second half until the final
minute and the Red Raiders were
stopped on downs with a chance
to put the game away early in the
fourth quarter. Houston drove 95
yards to take the lead late and
Tech did not have enough time to
get into field goal range though
they got close. Arkansas State led
by one entering the fourth quarter
and took a four-point lead early in
the fourth but Troy scored to take
back the lead and held on for the
win as a small dog. The Rams
were down just six to the Packers
entering the 4th but Green Bay
scored twice to put the game
away. The Titans led 17-14 late in
the 3rd with big yardage edges but
turnovers and sloppy play gave
the Jets the opportunity to take
over. Seattle pulled within one
and then took the lead in the 4th
but the Bears scored with 1:52
remaining then stopped Seattle’s
late drive. The Saints led by just
three entering the fourth before
adding 17 late points to gain some
distance. The Steelers led 20 -9
entering the 4th but the Bengals
delivered the comeback win.
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Upset Lingering: Still Road Favorites after an Upset Loss
PLAY AGAINST: Any college football road favorite coming
off a S/U loss as a favorite now facing a team off a S/U win.
68-48-2, 61.8% since 1994
PLAY AGAINST: Florida State, Mississippi,
(Play On: Boston College, Vanderbilt)
Tighten It: If the opponent is off back-to-back S/U wins: 28-12-2, 70%
Fits: No team applies this week
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Desperation Time: Road Favorites on losing streaks
PLAY ON: Any NFL road favorite coming off three
consecutive S/U losses
20-12, 62.5 % since 1995
PLAY ON: Tennessee
(Play Against: Jacksonville)
Tighten It: If the opponent is coming off a S/U win: 8-1, 88.9% since 1980
Fits: Tennessee
OVER/UNDER PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘OVER’ Northwestern/Purdue
Three of the five Big Ten games played ‘over’ last week and this
team will match up two marginal defenses against productive
offenses. Both teams are averaging 416 or more yards per game
and nearly 33 points per game. Purdue was held to just 21 points
last week but the Boilers have faced a very tough schedule and
Northwestern had 309 passing yards last week with turnovers
costing a few scoring chances.
NFL: ‘UNDER’ St. Louis/San Francisco
The Rams had a season high output last week with 17 points and
although this should be a low figure it makes sense to look for
another low-scoring game. San Francisco’s defense will be revved
up after a tough loss and the Niners will stick to the running game
even if RB Gore is out for this game. Eight of the last eleven
meetings between these division rivals have played ‘under’ and the
‘under’ has hit in six of the last eight San Francisco games and six of
the last nine St. Louis games.
Anybody notice that Marc Lawrence is a fucking LIAR?! His sheet this week advertises that last week he won his 5 star game of the month on VaTech. But last week's sheet had Penn State as his 5 star. He went 0-4 in college last week, including his upset game of the week. Am I missing something here?!
usc,
The newsletter plays are just that newsletter plays and not late phone selections his 5* in the newsletter was Penn State but that was not his 5* Late Phone Service Game of the Month which was VA Tech. He is not lying about this, I dont know about any other lies but this time he is telling the truth
ugk2010
