LOGICAL APPROACH
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 4 Games through September 28, 2009
Two weeks into the 2009 season and already there are teams that have been pleasant surprises and major disappointments. Of course it's still early but with a short 16 game schedule, each game is huge in terms of a team's chances of making the Playoffs.
The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-1 but it easily could have been an 0-2 start as they needed overtime to defeat Tennessee in their opener before giving up a late lead in Chicago and ultimately losing on a last second FG 17-14. Runner up Arizona also is 1-1. After losing to what appears to be a very much improved San Francisco, the Cardinals responded in the way you like to see a good team respond, by traveling across country and routing Jacksonville in a game not as close as the 31-17 score.
Nine teams have started 2-0. Of this group only Atlanta, Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans were favored in both of their games. Baltimore, Denver, the New York Giants and San Francisco have each won a game when favored but have also pulled off an upset with an outright win as an underdog. The New York Jets earned both of their wins as underdogs at Houston and at home against New England.
9 teams have started 0-2. Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, St Louis and Tampa Bay each were expected to start with two losses, being underdogs in both games. But Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tennessee have each lost once when favored. Of concern for these teams is that those losses occurred at home. Of this group Carolina, Miami and Tennessee each made the Playoffs last season.
An 0-2 start has historically been a major obstacle to overcome in making the Playoffs. An 0-3 start rarely produces a Playoff team, making for 'critical' week 3 games for the Panthers, Dolphins and Titans. Of the 3 teams that made the Playoffs in 2007 but started 0-2 in 2008 only San Diego was able to overcome that start to make the 2008 Playoffs. But the Chargers did so with an 8-8 record and benefitted from Denver's late season collapse. Both Jacksonville and Seattle were unable to overcome their 0-2 start last season. One other team that started 0-2 last season - Minnesota - did turn things around and made the Playoffs.
Last week we presented some data on 'key' margins of victory and how often games involving pointspreads around those key numbers actually fell on the key numbers. Those results can be used to determine whether it makes sense to 'buy' an extra half point on or off of those key numbers (i.e. laying 2 ½ instead of 3 or getting 3 ½ instead of 3). The answer can be found by looking at that data.
When you 'buy' that extra half point you must generally lay 6 to 5 (12-10) instead of the usual 11-10. At 11-10 you must hit 52.4% winners to break even. At 6-5 that rises to 54.6%. Recall that 27 seasons of history shows that about 9.24% of all games with pointspreads of 2 ½, 3 or 3 ½ end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. Thus in about 10 of 100 games there will be a benefit to buying the extra half point and turning a loss into a push or a push into a win. Let's examine what happens over those 100 bets.
90 of the bets remain unaffected. Thus laying 6-5 instead of 11-10 will cost you an extra $900 in losses based on laying $120 to win $100 instead of laying $110 to win $100. But that's only if you LOSE all of those 90 bets! More likely you'll win at least half of those games so the added losses are closer to about $450 in games that are unaffected by the buying of the extra half point.
Let's now look at the other 10 bets that are affected. If those 10 bets would have been losses but are now pushes, you will have saved $1100 in losses by laying the extra juice. (At 11-10 you would have laid $1100 to win $1000 but would have lost whereas at 6-5 you would have laid $1,200 and pushed). If those 10 bets would have pushed at 11-10 they would win by laying 6-5. Thus you would gain an extra $1000 in winnings by laying the 6-5. More likely, the 10 bets would have involved changing some losses to pushes and some pushes to wins. The net impact of the 10 transformed wagers would range between $1000 and $1100.
Thus in analyzing the impact of buying on or off of '3' out of 100 wagers we would have sacrificed the added 'vig' on 90 of the wagers. Assuming we'd go 45-45 on those plays our added cost of buying the extra half point would be $450. On the 10 wagers that are impacted the assumption is that without the extra half point we'd have 5 pushes and 5 losses (a net loss of $550) that would be converted into 5 pushes and 5 winners with the extra half point (a net win of $500), for a net gain of $1050. Taken together the gain of $1050 on the 10 affected wagers is offset by the $450 additional losses on the 90 unaffected wagers for a net benefit of $600 gained by buying onto or off of the number '3' in the NFL.
We can therefore conclude that buying the extra half point onto or off of 3 gives you a noticeable edge over not buying the half point and laying the standard 11 to 10. Of the other 8 'key' numbers presented in our study (1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 and 17) the percentage of favorites winning by exactly that margin when the line was within a half point of that number ranged from 1.23% to 6.06%.
In next week's issue we shall debut our weekly Spreadsheet that provides unique statistical information that will enhance the analyses presented in the Newsletter. Sometimes numbers can give a much clearer indication of strengths and weakness and how teams match up than can commentary. We know you will find the data to be very useful in doing your own evaluation of the games.
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: STANFORD - 7 over Washington - Washington's improvement was evident in their 31-23 opening game loss to LSU. The improvement translated into results the next week when the Huskies snapped their 15 game losing streak defeating Idaho. And then it all came together with last week's 16-13 upset of powerful USC. Washington was well prepared for that game with so much of their coaching staff on both sides of the ball former USC staffers. Now they must take to the road for the first time and they are in a natural letdown spot. They also don't have those huge familiarity edges they enjoyed last week. Stanford is a well coached program on the rise. They have a pair of one sided home wins sandwiched around a road loss across the country at Wake Forest. They are further ahead of UW in rebuilding and have fared well as a favorite, playing the role of bully when given the chance. Stanford wins 30-13.
Other Featured College Selections
BOSTON COLLEGE + 1 ½ over Wake Forest - It can't get any uglier for BC than last week's "effort" in a loss to Clemson with just 5 first downs and 54 yards of total offense. The defense actually fared well, holding the Tigers to just 253 yards of offense. Defense has been their strength in the early going and in Wake Forest they face an offense that has struggled more than expected. This is also Wake's first road season and their ACC opener. Wake had won 3 of the first 4 meetings since BC joined the ACC in 2003 but BC has won each of the past 2 seasons. They will be highly motivated to atone for last week's abysmal effort and they have the defense to do it in what should be a low scoring game. Wake Forest has performed better as a favorite in recent seasons but still under 40% ATS under current coach Grobe. BC is in the rare role of a home dog but is 2-0 both S/U and ATS in their only two previous spots as such since 2006. Boston College wins 23-17.
Minnesota + 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - Minnesota was 7-1 and seeking to avenge a 49-48 loss from the season before when they hosted Northwestern in 2008. Favored by a TD the Gophers were upset 24-17 by the Wildcats and Minny did not win another game last season. Now they play with double revenge and again arguably have the better talent. Both teams have played at Syracuse with Minnesota winning by a FG in OT and Northwestern losing by a FG on the final play of regulation. Both teams had trouble running the ball against the Orange but both passing attacks were effective. Overall Minnesota had the better offensive showing against Syracuse while Minny had the superior defensive stats. Minnesota played a pair of much better foes (Air Force and Cal) in their other two games than has Northwestern (Towson State and Eastern Michigan). Historically the road team has covered 11 of the last 12 in the series. Minnesota wins 24-20.
ARKANSAS STATE - 1 over Troy - Both teams figure to contend for Sun Belt honors as they meet for the sixth time as conference foes. ASU won the first 3 meetings but Troy has won each of the past 2 seasons. Each team has lost to big name foes this season with Troy getting trounced at Florida and Arky State faring slightly better in a loss at Nebraska. This is Troy's third road game of the season as they got their only win to date last week at home against UAB. ASU is 1-1 with a blowout win over a very weak FCS/I-AA team and had last week off, giving them an edge in preparation for this conference opener. ASU has had a very strong home field advantage in conference play, winning 12 of their last 14. Their most recent conference home loss was to Troy in 2007. The talent level is fairly even but ASU has better balance on offense and return a more experienced defense. ASU's rest is a solid edge against road weary Troy. Arkansas State wins 27-20.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Mississippi - 3 over SOUTH CAROLINA [1]
OHIO STATE - 14 over Illinois
MICHIGAN STATE + 3 over Wisconsin
Tcu + 3 over CLEMSON
TENNESSEE - 21 over Ohio
MEMPHIS - 3 over Marshall
San Diego State + 16 over AIR FORCE
RICE + 8 over Vanderbilt
Florida - 21 ½ over KENTUCKY
Arizona State + 12 ½ over GEORGIA
OREGON + 7 over California
GEORGIA TECH - 2 ½ over North Carolina
BYU - 15 over Colorado State
Pittsburgh + 1 ½ over NORTH CAROLINA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH + 2 ½ over Miami Fla
PURDUE + 7 over Notre Dame
Utep + 36 over TEXAS
Iowa + 10 over PENN STATE
OREGON STATE - 2 over Arizona
NEBRASKA - 26 over UL Lafayette
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 4 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
NEVADA + 7 ½ over Missouri [2]
Indiana + 21 over MICHIGAN
TEMPLE - 2 ½ over Buffalo
Rutgers - 2 ½ over MARYLAND
BOWLING GREEN + 17 over Boise State
Central Florida + 11 over EAST CAROLINA
CINCINNATI - 16 over Fresno State
Akron + 16 ½ over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Lsu - 13 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Army + 10 over IOWA STATE
Uab + 15 over TEXAS A&M
KANSAS - 13 ½ over Southern Miss
Ball State + 32 over AUBURN
WYOMING + 5 ½ over Unlv
Arkansas + 15 over ALABAMA
South Florida + 14 ½ over FLORIDA STATE
Idaho + 16 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Miami Ohio + 8 ½ over KENT STATE
UTAH - 12 ½ over Louisville
Texas Tech + 1 over HOUSTON
NEW MEXICO - 10 over New Mexico State
USC - 45 over Washington State
NAVY - 28 ½ over Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee - 6 ½ over NORTH TEXAS
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEW ENGLAND - 4 ½ over Atlanta - Atlanta steps up in class and plays their first road game of the season after defeating Miami and Carolina at home. The Pats are still an elite team despite their 1-1 start which came against a pair of improved Division rivals. The situation is ripe for a highly motivated effort from the Pats who have talent and experience edges. QB Tom Brady has shown some rust but he should become more comfortable and effective with each game. Atlanta is in a favorable schedule spot with a Bye next week so they will be well prepared for New England. But look for the Pats th have made several adjustments on both sides of the ball, especially on defense where coach Belichick had an entire offseason to break down film from Falcon QB Ryan's fine rookie season. Belichick is a master of identifying tendencies and disguising defenses to expose them. That will be key here. New England wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
Tennessee + 2 ½ over N Y JETS - After going 13-3 last season the Titans have started 0-2 with each loss by a FG. The Jets have surprised many with their 2-0 start including that very satisfying win over Division rival New England. A bit of a letdown for a young QB and first year coach would not be surprising. New coach Rex Ryan has had an immediate impact both with the culture within the organization and the play on the field, especially their attacking and aggressive defense. Still Titans coach Fisher has been around long enough to take advantage of vulnerabilities such a defense allows. Despite last week's shootout with Houston, the Titans still have a fundamentally solid defense and they play here with a great sense of urgency. They also recall a 34-13 home loss last year to the Jets - the Titans' first loss after a 10-0 start. Tennessee wins 24-13.
ARIZONA - 2 over Indianapolis -- Scheduling dynamics work against Indianapolis who played Monday night in Miami and now travel cross country to play in the heat of the desert. The Indy defense was on the field for 45 minutes in their 27-23 win and figure to wear down in the second half. That's why Arizona went from a 1 point dog to a small favorite and probably close as a FG choice. Arizona rebounded from an opening loss to improved San Francisco with an impressive effort in easily winning at Jacksonville. The Cards had success running the football against the Jaguars but QB Warner was outstanding in picking apart the defense. It''s tough to fare well in back to back road games, especially at opposite ends of the country. Indy QB Manning will have some success against an improved Arizona defense but the Cards have the better overall receiving corp and in what should be a shootout their offense wears down Indy's defense. Arizona wins 34-27.
Carolina + 9 ½ over DALLAS (Monday) - This is a critical early season game for 0-2 Carolina. Dallas' debut in their new digs resulted in a disappointing loss as the Giants rallied for a final drive that led to the winning FG. The Cowboys clearly have the better talent but Carolina has a clear edge in coaching with John Fox having a better grasp of what's taking place on the field than does Dallas' Wade Phillips. That makes getting nearly double digits an attractive take for a team that can run the ball. The Panthers have lost all 6 meetings with Dallas this decade but 5 of them have been by a TD or less. And at 0-2 a repeat of their Playoff appearance from last season is in jeopardy so expect an all out effort against a team that repeatedly shows an inability to close out games. Carolina QB Delhomme had a much better effort against Atlanta than in the opener vs Atlanta providing a much needed confidence boost. Dallas wins but by just 27-23.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Jacksonville + 4 over HOUSTON
ST LOUIS + 6 ½ over Green Bay
San Francisco + 7 over MINNESOTA
SEATTLE + 2 over Chicago
BUFFALO + 6 over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 over Denver
The Rest (Leans)
PHILADELPHIA - 9 ½ over Kansas City
BALTIMORE - 13 ½ over Cleveland
N Y Giants - 6 ½ over TAMPA BAY
Washington - 6 ½ over DETROIT
SAN DIEGO - 6 over Miami
CINCINNATI + 4 ½ over Pittsburgh
Best of the NFL Totals
Jacksonville/Houston OVER 46 ½
Washington/Detroit UNDER 38 ½
Green Bay/St Louis OVER 41
San Francisco/Minnesota UNDER 40
New Orleans/Buffalo OVER 52 ½
Oakland/Denver UNDER 37 ½
Indianapolis/Arizona OVER 48
Carolina/Dallas OVER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Minnesota
Michigan State
OREGON RICE
Pro:
Tennessee
Jacksonville
BUFFALO
Cincinnati
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 4 Games through September 28, 2009
Two weeks into the 2009 season and already there are teams that have been pleasant surprises and major disappointments. Of course it's still early but with a short 16 game schedule, each game is huge in terms of a team's chances of making the Playoffs.
The defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-1 but it easily could have been an 0-2 start as they needed overtime to defeat Tennessee in their opener before giving up a late lead in Chicago and ultimately losing on a last second FG 17-14. Runner up Arizona also is 1-1. After losing to what appears to be a very much improved San Francisco, the Cardinals responded in the way you like to see a good team respond, by traveling across country and routing Jacksonville in a game not as close as the 31-17 score.
Nine teams have started 2-0. Of this group only Atlanta, Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans were favored in both of their games. Baltimore, Denver, the New York Giants and San Francisco have each won a game when favored but have also pulled off an upset with an outright win as an underdog. The New York Jets earned both of their wins as underdogs at Houston and at home against New England.
9 teams have started 0-2. Carolina, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, St Louis and Tampa Bay each were expected to start with two losses, being underdogs in both games. But Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tennessee have each lost once when favored. Of concern for these teams is that those losses occurred at home. Of this group Carolina, Miami and Tennessee each made the Playoffs last season.
An 0-2 start has historically been a major obstacle to overcome in making the Playoffs. An 0-3 start rarely produces a Playoff team, making for 'critical' week 3 games for the Panthers, Dolphins and Titans. Of the 3 teams that made the Playoffs in 2007 but started 0-2 in 2008 only San Diego was able to overcome that start to make the 2008 Playoffs. But the Chargers did so with an 8-8 record and benefitted from Denver's late season collapse. Both Jacksonville and Seattle were unable to overcome their 0-2 start last season. One other team that started 0-2 last season - Minnesota - did turn things around and made the Playoffs.
Last week we presented some data on 'key' margins of victory and how often games involving pointspreads around those key numbers actually fell on the key numbers. Those results can be used to determine whether it makes sense to 'buy' an extra half point on or off of those key numbers (i.e. laying 2 ½ instead of 3 or getting 3 ½ instead of 3). The answer can be found by looking at that data.
When you 'buy' that extra half point you must generally lay 6 to 5 (12-10) instead of the usual 11-10. At 11-10 you must hit 52.4% winners to break even. At 6-5 that rises to 54.6%. Recall that 27 seasons of history shows that about 9.24% of all games with pointspreads of 2 ½, 3 or 3 ½ end up with the favorite winning by exactly 3 points. Thus in about 10 of 100 games there will be a benefit to buying the extra half point and turning a loss into a push or a push into a win. Let's examine what happens over those 100 bets.
90 of the bets remain unaffected. Thus laying 6-5 instead of 11-10 will cost you an extra $900 in losses based on laying $120 to win $100 instead of laying $110 to win $100. But that's only if you LOSE all of those 90 bets! More likely you'll win at least half of those games so the added losses are closer to about $450 in games that are unaffected by the buying of the extra half point.
Let's now look at the other 10 bets that are affected. If those 10 bets would have been losses but are now pushes, you will have saved $1100 in losses by laying the extra juice. (At 11-10 you would have laid $1100 to win $1000 but would have lost whereas at 6-5 you would have laid $1,200 and pushed). If those 10 bets would have pushed at 11-10 they would win by laying 6-5. Thus you would gain an extra $1000 in winnings by laying the 6-5. More likely, the 10 bets would have involved changing some losses to pushes and some pushes to wins. The net impact of the 10 transformed wagers would range between $1000 and $1100.
Thus in analyzing the impact of buying on or off of '3' out of 100 wagers we would have sacrificed the added 'vig' on 90 of the wagers. Assuming we'd go 45-45 on those plays our added cost of buying the extra half point would be $450. On the 10 wagers that are impacted the assumption is that without the extra half point we'd have 5 pushes and 5 losses (a net loss of $550) that would be converted into 5 pushes and 5 winners with the extra half point (a net win of $500), for a net gain of $1050. Taken together the gain of $1050 on the 10 affected wagers is offset by the $450 additional losses on the 90 unaffected wagers for a net benefit of $600 gained by buying onto or off of the number '3' in the NFL.
We can therefore conclude that buying the extra half point onto or off of 3 gives you a noticeable edge over not buying the half point and laying the standard 11 to 10. Of the other 8 'key' numbers presented in our study (1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14 and 17) the percentage of favorites winning by exactly that margin when the line was within a half point of that number ranged from 1.23% to 6.06%.
In next week's issue we shall debut our weekly Spreadsheet that provides unique statistical information that will enhance the analyses presented in the Newsletter. Sometimes numbers can give a much clearer indication of strengths and weakness and how teams match up than can commentary. We know you will find the data to be very useful in doing your own evaluation of the games.
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: STANFORD - 7 over Washington - Washington's improvement was evident in their 31-23 opening game loss to LSU. The improvement translated into results the next week when the Huskies snapped their 15 game losing streak defeating Idaho. And then it all came together with last week's 16-13 upset of powerful USC. Washington was well prepared for that game with so much of their coaching staff on both sides of the ball former USC staffers. Now they must take to the road for the first time and they are in a natural letdown spot. They also don't have those huge familiarity edges they enjoyed last week. Stanford is a well coached program on the rise. They have a pair of one sided home wins sandwiched around a road loss across the country at Wake Forest. They are further ahead of UW in rebuilding and have fared well as a favorite, playing the role of bully when given the chance. Stanford wins 30-13.
Other Featured College Selections
BOSTON COLLEGE + 1 ½ over Wake Forest - It can't get any uglier for BC than last week's "effort" in a loss to Clemson with just 5 first downs and 54 yards of total offense. The defense actually fared well, holding the Tigers to just 253 yards of offense. Defense has been their strength in the early going and in Wake Forest they face an offense that has struggled more than expected. This is also Wake's first road season and their ACC opener. Wake had won 3 of the first 4 meetings since BC joined the ACC in 2003 but BC has won each of the past 2 seasons. They will be highly motivated to atone for last week's abysmal effort and they have the defense to do it in what should be a low scoring game. Wake Forest has performed better as a favorite in recent seasons but still under 40% ATS under current coach Grobe. BC is in the rare role of a home dog but is 2-0 both S/U and ATS in their only two previous spots as such since 2006. Boston College wins 23-17.
Minnesota + 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - Minnesota was 7-1 and seeking to avenge a 49-48 loss from the season before when they hosted Northwestern in 2008. Favored by a TD the Gophers were upset 24-17 by the Wildcats and Minny did not win another game last season. Now they play with double revenge and again arguably have the better talent. Both teams have played at Syracuse with Minnesota winning by a FG in OT and Northwestern losing by a FG on the final play of regulation. Both teams had trouble running the ball against the Orange but both passing attacks were effective. Overall Minnesota had the better offensive showing against Syracuse while Minny had the superior defensive stats. Minnesota played a pair of much better foes (Air Force and Cal) in their other two games than has Northwestern (Towson State and Eastern Michigan). Historically the road team has covered 11 of the last 12 in the series. Minnesota wins 24-20.
ARKANSAS STATE - 1 over Troy - Both teams figure to contend for Sun Belt honors as they meet for the sixth time as conference foes. ASU won the first 3 meetings but Troy has won each of the past 2 seasons. Each team has lost to big name foes this season with Troy getting trounced at Florida and Arky State faring slightly better in a loss at Nebraska. This is Troy's third road game of the season as they got their only win to date last week at home against UAB. ASU is 1-1 with a blowout win over a very weak FCS/I-AA team and had last week off, giving them an edge in preparation for this conference opener. ASU has had a very strong home field advantage in conference play, winning 12 of their last 14. Their most recent conference home loss was to Troy in 2007. The talent level is fairly even but ASU has better balance on offense and return a more experienced defense. ASU's rest is a solid edge against road weary Troy. Arkansas State wins 27-20.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Mississippi - 3 over SOUTH CAROLINA [1]
OHIO STATE - 14 over Illinois
MICHIGAN STATE + 3 over Wisconsin
Tcu + 3 over CLEMSON
TENNESSEE - 21 over Ohio
MEMPHIS - 3 over Marshall
San Diego State + 16 over AIR FORCE
RICE + 8 over Vanderbilt
Florida - 21 ½ over KENTUCKY
Arizona State + 12 ½ over GEORGIA
OREGON + 7 over California
GEORGIA TECH - 2 ½ over North Carolina
BYU - 15 over Colorado State
Pittsburgh + 1 ½ over NORTH CAROLINA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH + 2 ½ over Miami Fla
PURDUE + 7 over Notre Dame
Utep + 36 over TEXAS
Iowa + 10 over PENN STATE
OREGON STATE - 2 over Arizona
NEBRASKA - 26 over UL Lafayette
FLORIDA ATLANTIC - 4 over UL Monroe
The Rest (Leans)
NEVADA + 7 ½ over Missouri [2]
Indiana + 21 over MICHIGAN
TEMPLE - 2 ½ over Buffalo
Rutgers - 2 ½ over MARYLAND
BOWLING GREEN + 17 over Boise State
Central Florida + 11 over EAST CAROLINA
CINCINNATI - 16 over Fresno State
Akron + 16 ½ over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Lsu - 13 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Army + 10 over IOWA STATE
Uab + 15 over TEXAS A&M
KANSAS - 13 ½ over Southern Miss
Ball State + 32 over AUBURN
WYOMING + 5 ½ over Unlv
Arkansas + 15 over ALABAMA
South Florida + 14 ½ over FLORIDA STATE
Idaho + 16 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Miami Ohio + 8 ½ over KENT STATE
UTAH - 12 ½ over Louisville
Texas Tech + 1 over HOUSTON
NEW MEXICO - 10 over New Mexico State
USC - 45 over Washington State
NAVY - 28 ½ over Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee - 6 ½ over NORTH TEXAS
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: NEW ENGLAND - 4 ½ over Atlanta - Atlanta steps up in class and plays their first road game of the season after defeating Miami and Carolina at home. The Pats are still an elite team despite their 1-1 start which came against a pair of improved Division rivals. The situation is ripe for a highly motivated effort from the Pats who have talent and experience edges. QB Tom Brady has shown some rust but he should become more comfortable and effective with each game. Atlanta is in a favorable schedule spot with a Bye next week so they will be well prepared for New England. But look for the Pats th have made several adjustments on both sides of the ball, especially on defense where coach Belichick had an entire offseason to break down film from Falcon QB Ryan's fine rookie season. Belichick is a master of identifying tendencies and disguising defenses to expose them. That will be key here. New England wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections:
Tennessee + 2 ½ over N Y JETS - After going 13-3 last season the Titans have started 0-2 with each loss by a FG. The Jets have surprised many with their 2-0 start including that very satisfying win over Division rival New England. A bit of a letdown for a young QB and first year coach would not be surprising. New coach Rex Ryan has had an immediate impact both with the culture within the organization and the play on the field, especially their attacking and aggressive defense. Still Titans coach Fisher has been around long enough to take advantage of vulnerabilities such a defense allows. Despite last week's shootout with Houston, the Titans still have a fundamentally solid defense and they play here with a great sense of urgency. They also recall a 34-13 home loss last year to the Jets - the Titans' first loss after a 10-0 start. Tennessee wins 24-13.
ARIZONA - 2 over Indianapolis -- Scheduling dynamics work against Indianapolis who played Monday night in Miami and now travel cross country to play in the heat of the desert. The Indy defense was on the field for 45 minutes in their 27-23 win and figure to wear down in the second half. That's why Arizona went from a 1 point dog to a small favorite and probably close as a FG choice. Arizona rebounded from an opening loss to improved San Francisco with an impressive effort in easily winning at Jacksonville. The Cards had success running the football against the Jaguars but QB Warner was outstanding in picking apart the defense. It''s tough to fare well in back to back road games, especially at opposite ends of the country. Indy QB Manning will have some success against an improved Arizona defense but the Cards have the better overall receiving corp and in what should be a shootout their offense wears down Indy's defense. Arizona wins 34-27.
Carolina + 9 ½ over DALLAS (Monday) - This is a critical early season game for 0-2 Carolina. Dallas' debut in their new digs resulted in a disappointing loss as the Giants rallied for a final drive that led to the winning FG. The Cowboys clearly have the better talent but Carolina has a clear edge in coaching with John Fox having a better grasp of what's taking place on the field than does Dallas' Wade Phillips. That makes getting nearly double digits an attractive take for a team that can run the ball. The Panthers have lost all 6 meetings with Dallas this decade but 5 of them have been by a TD or less. And at 0-2 a repeat of their Playoff appearance from last season is in jeopardy so expect an all out effort against a team that repeatedly shows an inability to close out games. Carolina QB Delhomme had a much better effort against Atlanta than in the opener vs Atlanta providing a much needed confidence boost. Dallas wins but by just 27-23.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations)
Jacksonville + 4 over HOUSTON
ST LOUIS + 6 ½ over Green Bay
San Francisco + 7 over MINNESOTA
SEATTLE + 2 over Chicago
BUFFALO + 6 over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 over Denver
The Rest (Leans)
PHILADELPHIA - 9 ½ over Kansas City
BALTIMORE - 13 ½ over Cleveland
N Y Giants - 6 ½ over TAMPA BAY
Washington - 6 ½ over DETROIT
SAN DIEGO - 6 over Miami
CINCINNATI + 4 ½ over Pittsburgh
Best of the NFL Totals
Jacksonville/Houston OVER 46 ½
Washington/Detroit UNDER 38 ½
Green Bay/St Louis OVER 41
San Francisco/Minnesota UNDER 40
New Orleans/Buffalo OVER 52 ½
Oakland/Denver UNDER 37 ½
Indianapolis/Arizona OVER 48
Carolina/Dallas OVER 46
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Minnesota
Michigan State
OREGON RICE
Pro:
Tennessee
Jacksonville
BUFFALO
Cincinnati
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
POWER PLAYS WEEK 4
i found this but there is no pdf.
MISSISSIPPI 143 155 27 2.8 ✔✔
SOUTH CAROLINA 122 235 19 3.2 –
Get your Thursday Night Marquee Winner after 3:00 pm ET by calling 1-900-438-9467 for just $15!
Or save on the Northcoast Debit Card where the Thursday Night Winner is yours for just $9.
NO PLAY: MISSISSIPPI 27 SOUTH CAROLINA 19
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSOURI 128 240 35 2.3 ✔
NEVADA 212 280 22 2.9 –
This one is interesting. The pts say Missouri by 13 but the yds say Nevada 492-368. Our Marquee PPH’s are
on a 12-3 run (as of 9/20)! Get Friday’s Marquee Winner on the Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on
September 25th. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: MISSOURI 35 NEVADA 22
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WAKE FOREST 118 145 17 2.2 –
BOSTON COLLEGE 137 185 24 2.6 –
We went against BC with our Sept 5★ GOM LW and Clemson dominated with a 253-54 yd edge.
PP calls for BC to win by 7 (line Even) with a 322-263 yd edge and we’ll go with the Eagles this wk.
4.5★ BOSTON COLLEGE 24 WAKE FOREST 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ILLINOIS 110 200 15 2.9 –
OHIO STATE 200 265 31 2.1 ✔✔
ILL is 6-2 ATS & the visitor is 8-1 SU in this series. PP calls for OSU to win by 16 with a 465-310
yd edge, but we disagree and like the Illini plus 15.
NO PLAY: OHIO STATE 31 ILLINOIS 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MINNESOTA 131 225 24 3.0 –
NORTHWESTERN 129 240 24 3.0 ✔
The visitor is 13-1 ATS and the dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. PP calls this a draw and the yards
are almost even. These tms are pretty even so we’ll take the points.
4★ MINNESOTA (if +3 or more) 24 NORTHWESTERN 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANA 103 155 15 2.7 –
MICHIGAN 227 215 37 2.9 ✔✔
HC Rod saw his offense explode year 2 at WV and the same thing is happening at UM TY. PP is calling
for a 442-258 yd edge. IU’s win at Akron was w/o the Zips susp QB. UM moves to 4-0 SU & ATS.
4★ MICHIGAN 37 (if -21 of less) INDIANA 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 74 205 18 2.4 –
TEMPLE 151 185 24 3.1 ✔
Temple is 0-2 and lost to a 1AA team but this is why you buy PP. The forecast is for Temple (-2’)
to fi nish with 336-279 yd edge. Buffalo’s rush attack will miss RB Starks as conf play starts today.
4★ TEMPLE 24 BUFFALO 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN STATE 120 255 27 2.5 –
WISCONSIN 155 210 27 2.6 ✔
MSU (1-2 TY) fell short in their upset bid at ND while Wisky is 3-0 but has failed to cover vs both
IA teams TY. PP is calling this a toss-up with MSU having a 375-365 yd edge. We like Wisky -2’.
NO PLAY: WISCONSIN 27 MICHIGAN STATE 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TCU 127 123 18 3.0 ✔ ✔
CLEMSON 129 173 24 2.4 –
Clemson cashed in as our Sept 5★ LW in dominating fashion. While both team have physical D’s PP
is calling for the Tigers to fi nish with a 302-250 yd edge and dash any BCS hopes TCU may have.
4★ CLEMSON 24 TCU 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
RUTGERS 153 235 26 1.6 –
MARYLAND 142 265 26 3.7 –
Rutgers seems to have righted the ship since their opening wk fi asco. They led 23-0 LW before
allowing 2 garbage TD’s. Maryland has split their L/2 losing to MT and needing OT to beat an IAA.
PP calls this a toss-up with the ydg forecast close, but we like Rutgers -3.
NO PLAY: RUTGERS 26 MARYLAND 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOISE STATE 191 205 32 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
BOWLING GREEN 109 245 16 2.5 –
Boise continues to impress and PP thinks they can handle the role of a DD AF (-15) but projects the
Broncos with just a 396-354 yd edge. That special teams edge is worth at least one score.
2★ BOISE STATE 32 BOWLING GREEN 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO 42 108 8 3.2 ✔
TENNESSEE 199 203 30 3.0 –
UT is off a closer than expected loss to rival Florida and PP calls for a 22 pt win over Ohio TW with a
402-150 yd edge. UT has Aub on deck and Ohio is our pick to win the MAC East, so we’ll pass.
NO PLAY: TENNESSEE 30 OHIO 8
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UCF 55 163 17 2.9 –
EAST CAROLINA 111 238 28 2.3 ✔
EC is off to an 0-3 ATS start but they are 8-3 ATS as a conf HF. UCF is a defense-minded tm that
switched to QB Hodges LW in their win. PP is calling for EC to fi nish with a 349-218 yd edge but the
point forecast is close to the line.
NO PLAY: EAST CAROLINA 28 UCF 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FRESNO STATE 183 210 26 3.2 –
CINCINNATI 202 300 39 2.0 –
Cincy HC Kelly certainly deserves credit after outgaining Oregon St 408-344. PP projects them with a
502-393 yd edge in a 13 pt win (line 14). FSU likes to take on the big boys and should keep it close.
2★ FRESNO ST (+) 26 CINCINNATI 39
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AKRON 137 178 21 1.8 –
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 129 313 35 1.7 ✔ ✔
CM is 8-2 as a HF and they outgained Mich St 418-316 in their upset win 2 weeks ago. Akron
susp their QB LW and if he is out again this week, we like CM here.
NO PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35 AKRON 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LSU 161 195 30 1.8 ✔
MISSISSIPPI ST 139 190 18 2.8 –
LSU is 16-1 SU vs MSU and on a 10-2 ATS run in this series. PP calls for LSU to win by 12 (line
14) but the ydg forecast is close (356-329). We lean with LSU in this one.
NO PLAY: LSU 30 MISSISSIPPI ST 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARMY 190 78 17 3.0 –
IOWA STATE 166 248 27 3.7 ✔ ✔ ✔
ISU got a road win vs Kent but Kent was w/o their RB & QB. ISU is now a DD fave for the fi rst
time s/’06 facing an Army team that is getting better at the option every week. We like Army +10.
NO PLAY: IOWA ST 27 ARMY 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MARSHALL 151 165 21 2.0 ✔ ✔
MEMPHIS 159 260 25 2.8 –
Marshall showed you what they’re capable of LW rushing for 246 (6.6) in the victory over BG. We like
Marshall’s defense and rush attack going up against an uneven Tigers squad.
NO PLAY: MEMPHIS 25 MARSHALL 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UAB 192 213 24 2.4 –
TEXAS A&M 209 373 40 2.7 ✔ ✔
Both teams rely on their offense and PP is calling for a high scoring game. A&M is projected with
a 582-405 yd edge. With the line at 15, we’ll watch and see where the total opens.
NO PLAY: TEXAS A&M 40 UAB 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SOUTHERN MISS 187 188 24 2.4 –
KANSAS 159 333 38 2.1 –
Kansas is now 13-2 ATS as a HF and PP is calling for them to fi nish with a 492-375 yd edge. SM,
however, is avg 38 ppg TY and HC Fedora returns to B12 country with all of his tricks. We like SM.
NO PLAY: KANSAS 38 SOUTHERN MISS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO STATE 71 205 16 3.1 –
AIR FORCE 339 125 38 1.8 –
PP’s projection makes it look like a blow out but we disagree. SDSt now has Rocky Long at DC
and he was a master at slowing the option at NM. We like San Diego St in this one.
NO PLAY: AIR FORCE 38 SAN DIEGO ST 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VANDERBILT 168 158 28 2.5 –
RICE 93 208 14 2.7 ✔ ✔
LY Vandy beat an exp Rice tm 38-21 and TY Rice is rebuilding while VU is a veteran squad. PP
calls for a 14 pt win by VU (line 8’) but with just a 326-301 yd edge.
4★ VANDERBILT 28 RICE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALL STATE 78 150 10 3.3 –
AUBURN 252 260 39 1.8 ✔
Two tms on opposite paths as Aub looks better every wk and BSU looks worse. PP calls for a 29
pt win (line 30) with a 512-228 yd edge. Even though Aub has a trip to Tenn on deck, we like Aub.
NO PLAY: AUBURN 39 BALL ST 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UNLV 96 210 21 1.8 ✔ ✔
WYOMING 129 215 16 2.1 –
First road game for the Rebels after scoring 31 ppg in their 1st 3. This forecast does surprise us
with WY having a 344-306 yd edge. UNLV put up 460 yds LW and we think they are the pick -5’.
NO PLAY: UNLV 21 WYOMING 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS 33 255 22 2.2 –
ALABAMA 197 245 38 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Petrino & Co spent the offssn preparing for the GA gm and couldn’t stop the Dawgs LW, and now
they have to face the stifl ing D of Bama. PP calls for Bama to win by 16 which is right at the line.
NO PLAY: ALABAMA 38 ARKANSAS 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA 265 203 37 2.2 ✔ ✔
KENTUCKY 101 173 15 2.8 –
UF has won 22 in a row in this series but is 1-5 ATS as a DD fave vs UK. PP calls for a 22 pt win
with a 468-274 yd edge which is right at the line. We like Florida.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA 37 KENTUCKY 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA STATE 42 178 21 2.2 –
GEORGIA 154 258 36 3.5 ✔
No surprise with Georgia’s offense but the defense has now allowed 34 ppg in the fi rst 3. PP
projects they will get that corrected here as the Bulldogs fi nish with a 412-220 yd edge.
4★ GEORGIA 36 ARIZONA STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CALIFORNIA 190 205 37 2.1 ✔ ✔
OREGON 175 165 27 3.2 –
UO got a nice win vs Utah LW but now they face what could be the P10’s top team. PP is calling
for the Bears to fi nish with a 395-340 yd edge. They also have the TO & ST’s edges here.
4★ CALIFORNIA 37 OREGON 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USF 126 215 25 3.5 –
FLORIDA STATE 174 245 28 2.1 –
Beating a non-BCS tm normally wouldn’t be a big deal but you know it was a confi dence builder for
FSU. USF lost QB Grothe with a torn ACL (68% of off LY) and this will be the Bulls’ 1st gm w/o him.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA STATE 28 USF 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTH CAROLINA 120 188 20 2.7 –
GEORGIA TECH 231 138 23 2.6 –
GT was held to 95 (2.4) rush LW but PP thinks they’ll regroup back at home. NC has a physical
defense but the projection is for the Yellow Jackets to fi nish with a 369-308 yd edge.
NO PLAY: GEORGIA TECH 23 NORTH CAROLINA 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IDAHO 103 175 14 2.5 –
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 222 195 33 2.1 ✔ ✔
Nice scheduling spot for NIll facing a weak non-conf opponent after knocking off Purdue LW. Remember
PP does not factor in a letdown which could occur. The forecast is for a 417-278 yd edge.
2★ NORTHERN ILLINOIS 33 IDAHO 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO STATE 85 150 16 3.0 –
BYU 145 380 37 2.9 ✔
BYU is off their largest home loss since ‘04 and the undefeated Rams are the unfortunate opponent
on deck. PP is calling for a 525-235 yd edge as the Cougars regroup with a dominating win.
4.5★ BYU 37 COLORADO STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 131 185 25 2.3 –
NC STATE 84 250 25 2.3 –
It can’t get much closer. Vegas has made this game a pick while PP is calling for 25 pts a piece.
The yards are only 18 apart, the TO’s are even and the special teams are even. Call it a tie.
NO PLAY: NC STATE 25 PITTSBURGH 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON 118 233 22 2.2 –
STANFORD 193 203 25 2.4 ✔ ✔ ✔
The Huskies took advantage of LW’s scheduling spot and now could fall into the same trap after
their upset of USC. We like the Cardinal with their yardage & special teams edges in this game.
NO PLAY: STANFORD 25 WASHINGTON 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, OH 109 230 22 3.3 –
KENT STATE 206 155 30 2.6 –
Kent was squashed LW w/o their star RB and w/o their QB. While their QB may return, PP is still
calling for them to have a 361-339 yd edge against a MU team that has been outscored 138-26.
NO PLAY: KENT STATE 30 MIAMI, OH 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISVILLE 102 183 20 3.0 –
UTAH 164 243 30 3.6 ✔
Both are off losses and this is a tough road trip for the Cardinals after letting one get away vs their
instate rival. PP is calling for Utah to have a 407-285 yd edge but with the line at 11.5 we like UL.
3★ LOUISVILLE (+) 20 UTAH 30
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, FL 152 205 26 2.7 ✔
VIRGINIA TECH 168 190 25 2.0 –
The Hurricanes have grown up in a hurry. We’re aware that Blacksburg is one of the NCAA’s toughest
trips but Miami QB Harris has become a leader and Miami’s defense is becoming a force.
NO PLAY: MIAMI, FL 26 VIRGINIA TECH 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NOTRE DAME 178 295 35 2.5 ✔ ✔
PURDUE 127 260 25 3.1 –
ND is facing their 3rd straight B10 team going 0-2 ATS vs Michigan. The offense hasn’t been the problem
and PP is calling for the Irish to fi nish with a 473-387 yd edge and hand PU its 3rd straight loss.
3★ NOTRE DAME 35 PURDUE 25
Each week STREAKERS looks at current runs on both the
ATS & Totals. A streak starts after 3 Wins/Losses/Overs/Unders
so this section will start if any teams qualify during the fourth
week of the season. Remember you can win many times during
a streak and lose only once.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTEP 5 215 10 2.5 –
TEXAS 260 335 51 2.4 ✔ ✔ ✔
In LY’s visit by Texas, UTEP kept it close for 3Q before the Longhorns pulled away. No such luck this time
as PP is calling for a dominating win with UT fi nishing with a 595-220 yd edge. UT also has a bye on deck.
4★ TEXAS 51 (4.5★ is -35 of less) UTEP 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA 80 180 14 2.5 ✔
PENN STATE 160 205 22 3.0 –
While the PSU OL has underachieved, the defense certainly hasn’t. Everyone will be talking about
revenge and it looks like they’ll get it as the Lions fi nish with a 365-260 yd edge. We like PSU.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 22 IOWA 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEXAS TECH 70 393 36 2.9 ✔
HOUSTON 121 363 37 2.6 –
Who needs RBs? PP is calling for 756 combined yards passing with Houston having a 484-463
yd edge. We like a TT team that showed how tough they are having outgained Texas LW 414-340.
NO PLAY: HOUSTON 37 TEXAS TECH 36
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO STATE 110 163 16 2.7 –
NEW MEXICO 211 178 27 2.6 ✔ ✔
Both tms have new coaches and are struggling with new schemes. They’re 2 of the NCAA’s worst combining
for an 0-6 ATS record, failing to cover by 15 ppg. PP is calling for NM to fi nish with a 389-273 yd edge.
NO PLAY: NEW MEXICO 27 NEW MEXICO STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON STATE 20 100 2 3.2 –
USC 335 325 47 2.7 ✔
It’s deja vu as USC beats Ohio St and loses to an unranked P10 team on the road. Lets look at
LY when they then rebounded to win the next 3 by a combined 141-10. The yards say 660-120!
3★ USC 47 WASHINGTON STATE 2
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 155 180 19 2.5 –
OREGON STATE 120 210 22 2.0 ✔
These 2 are a combined 0-6 ATS and PP projects Arizona with a 330-310 yd edge. We like the
Wildcats despite losing 9 of 10 times in the series vs an OSU team that has underachieved.
NO PLAY: OREGON STATE 22 ARIZONA 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ULM 223 173 31 1.9 ✔ ✔
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 153 288 28 2.6 –
Both faced a pair of BCS teams prior to this conf opener. The offenses will both move the ball as PP
is projecting FAU with a 441-396 yd edge. ULM, however, has the TO & ST edge in the small upset.
4★ ULM 31 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISIANA 98 115 6 3.3 –
NEBRASKA 217 255 36 2.6 ✔ ✔
While NU is 3-0 ATS, LW’s loss was heartbreaking. If they rebound as expected it’s bad news for
the Cajuns getting outgained 472-213. Neb has already beaten a pair of SBC teams 87-12.
4★ NEBRASKA 36 LOUISIANA 6
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WKU 75 128 10 2.5 ✔
NAVY 366 113 37 1.6 –
WKU was not only a dog to IAA C Ark LW, they were beaten soundly getting outgained 407-287. Now
they have to prepare for the option and it should be one-sided with a yardage forecast of 479-203.
NO PLAY: NAVY 37 WKU 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TROY 102 223 21 2.2 ✔ ✔
ARKANSAS STATE 159 198 24 2.3 –
Troy fi nally showed some life LW with a win over UAB while ASU was on a bye. PP has ASU with
a 357-325 yd edge but Troy is the 3 time SBC Champ and is 10-1 in conf road games.
NO PLAY: ARKANSAS STATE 24 TROY 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 153 238 31 2.6 ✔ ✔
NORTH TEXAS 158 238 24 3.2 –
PP doesn’t take into account that NT may have tossed in the towel LW w/out QB Dodge. Yet the
forecast is for the Mean Green to outgain the Raiders. We like NT and an upset wouldn’t surprise.
NO PLAY: MIDDLE TENNESSEE 31 NORTH TEXAS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 178 225 29 1.9 –
FIU 142 255 28 2.3 ✔ ✔
Toledo opened with B2B impressive offensive performances but Ohio St shut them out LW. FIU’s score
LW was misleading, as they scored 2 TD’s late for the backdoor. PP gives UT a 6 yd & 1 pt edge.
NO PLAY: TOLEDO 29 FIU 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HAWAII 88 380 30 3.5 –
LOUISIANA TECH 172 265 30 3.0 ✔ ✔ ✔
The run and shoot is back at Hawaii and the Warriors are forecasted with 468 yds of offense. LT
has a more balanced offense and are home for this nationally televised Wednesday Night game.
NO PLAY: LOUISIANA TECH 30 HAWAII 30
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MISSISSIPPI 143 155 27 2.8 ✔✔
SOUTH CAROLINA 122 235 19 3.2 –
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NO PLAY: MISSISSIPPI 27 SOUTH CAROLINA 19
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MISSOURI 128 240 35 2.3 ✔
NEVADA 212 280 22 2.9 –
This one is interesting. The pts say Missouri by 13 but the yds say Nevada 492-368. Our Marquee PPH’s are
on a 12-3 run (as of 9/20)! Get Friday’s Marquee Winner on the Private Play Hotline after 3:00 pm ET on
September 25th. Call 1-900-438-9467 and pay $15 or save by using your Northcoast Debit Card for $9.
NO PLAY: MISSOURI 35 NEVADA 22
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26th
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WAKE FOREST 118 145 17 2.2 –
BOSTON COLLEGE 137 185 24 2.6 –
We went against BC with our Sept 5★ GOM LW and Clemson dominated with a 253-54 yd edge.
PP calls for BC to win by 7 (line Even) with a 322-263 yd edge and we’ll go with the Eagles this wk.
4.5★ BOSTON COLLEGE 24 WAKE FOREST 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ILLINOIS 110 200 15 2.9 –
OHIO STATE 200 265 31 2.1 ✔✔
ILL is 6-2 ATS & the visitor is 8-1 SU in this series. PP calls for OSU to win by 16 with a 465-310
yd edge, but we disagree and like the Illini plus 15.
NO PLAY: OHIO STATE 31 ILLINOIS 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MINNESOTA 131 225 24 3.0 –
NORTHWESTERN 129 240 24 3.0 ✔
The visitor is 13-1 ATS and the dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. PP calls this a draw and the yards
are almost even. These tms are pretty even so we’ll take the points.
4★ MINNESOTA (if +3 or more) 24 NORTHWESTERN 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
INDIANA 103 155 15 2.7 –
MICHIGAN 227 215 37 2.9 ✔✔
HC Rod saw his offense explode year 2 at WV and the same thing is happening at UM TY. PP is calling
for a 442-258 yd edge. IU’s win at Akron was w/o the Zips susp QB. UM moves to 4-0 SU & ATS.
4★ MICHIGAN 37 (if -21 of less) INDIANA 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BUFFALO 74 205 18 2.4 –
TEMPLE 151 185 24 3.1 ✔
Temple is 0-2 and lost to a 1AA team but this is why you buy PP. The forecast is for Temple (-2’)
to fi nish with 336-279 yd edge. Buffalo’s rush attack will miss RB Starks as conf play starts today.
4★ TEMPLE 24 BUFFALO 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MICHIGAN STATE 120 255 27 2.5 –
WISCONSIN 155 210 27 2.6 ✔
MSU (1-2 TY) fell short in their upset bid at ND while Wisky is 3-0 but has failed to cover vs both
IA teams TY. PP is calling this a toss-up with MSU having a 375-365 yd edge. We like Wisky -2’.
NO PLAY: WISCONSIN 27 MICHIGAN STATE 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TCU 127 123 18 3.0 ✔ ✔
CLEMSON 129 173 24 2.4 –
Clemson cashed in as our Sept 5★ LW in dominating fashion. While both team have physical D’s PP
is calling for the Tigers to fi nish with a 302-250 yd edge and dash any BCS hopes TCU may have.
4★ CLEMSON 24 TCU 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
RUTGERS 153 235 26 1.6 –
MARYLAND 142 265 26 3.7 –
Rutgers seems to have righted the ship since their opening wk fi asco. They led 23-0 LW before
allowing 2 garbage TD’s. Maryland has split their L/2 losing to MT and needing OT to beat an IAA.
PP calls this a toss-up with the ydg forecast close, but we like Rutgers -3.
NO PLAY: RUTGERS 26 MARYLAND 26
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BOISE STATE 191 205 32 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
BOWLING GREEN 109 245 16 2.5 –
Boise continues to impress and PP thinks they can handle the role of a DD AF (-15) but projects the
Broncos with just a 396-354 yd edge. That special teams edge is worth at least one score.
2★ BOISE STATE 32 BOWLING GREEN 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
OHIO 42 108 8 3.2 ✔
TENNESSEE 199 203 30 3.0 –
UT is off a closer than expected loss to rival Florida and PP calls for a 22 pt win over Ohio TW with a
402-150 yd edge. UT has Aub on deck and Ohio is our pick to win the MAC East, so we’ll pass.
NO PLAY: TENNESSEE 30 OHIO 8
NOTE: Power Plays - PP
Welcome to this week’s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system
or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4★ Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week’s Power Plays Selections.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UCF 55 163 17 2.9 –
EAST CAROLINA 111 238 28 2.3 ✔
EC is off to an 0-3 ATS start but they are 8-3 ATS as a conf HF. UCF is a defense-minded tm that
switched to QB Hodges LW in their win. PP is calling for EC to fi nish with a 349-218 yd edge but the
point forecast is close to the line.
NO PLAY: EAST CAROLINA 28 UCF 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FRESNO STATE 183 210 26 3.2 –
CINCINNATI 202 300 39 2.0 –
Cincy HC Kelly certainly deserves credit after outgaining Oregon St 408-344. PP projects them with a
502-393 yd edge in a 13 pt win (line 14). FSU likes to take on the big boys and should keep it close.
2★ FRESNO ST (+) 26 CINCINNATI 39
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
AKRON 137 178 21 1.8 –
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 129 313 35 1.7 ✔ ✔
CM is 8-2 as a HF and they outgained Mich St 418-316 in their upset win 2 weeks ago. Akron
susp their QB LW and if he is out again this week, we like CM here.
NO PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35 AKRON 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LSU 161 195 30 1.8 ✔
MISSISSIPPI ST 139 190 18 2.8 –
LSU is 16-1 SU vs MSU and on a 10-2 ATS run in this series. PP calls for LSU to win by 12 (line
14) but the ydg forecast is close (356-329). We lean with LSU in this one.
NO PLAY: LSU 30 MISSISSIPPI ST 18
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARMY 190 78 17 3.0 –
IOWA STATE 166 248 27 3.7 ✔ ✔ ✔
ISU got a road win vs Kent but Kent was w/o their RB & QB. ISU is now a DD fave for the fi rst
time s/’06 facing an Army team that is getting better at the option every week. We like Army +10.
NO PLAY: IOWA ST 27 ARMY 17
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MARSHALL 151 165 21 2.0 ✔ ✔
MEMPHIS 159 260 25 2.8 –
Marshall showed you what they’re capable of LW rushing for 246 (6.6) in the victory over BG. We like
Marshall’s defense and rush attack going up against an uneven Tigers squad.
NO PLAY: MEMPHIS 25 MARSHALL 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UAB 192 213 24 2.4 –
TEXAS A&M 209 373 40 2.7 ✔ ✔
Both teams rely on their offense and PP is calling for a high scoring game. A&M is projected with
a 582-405 yd edge. With the line at 15, we’ll watch and see where the total opens.
NO PLAY: TEXAS A&M 40 UAB 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SOUTHERN MISS 187 188 24 2.4 –
KANSAS 159 333 38 2.1 –
Kansas is now 13-2 ATS as a HF and PP is calling for them to fi nish with a 492-375 yd edge. SM,
however, is avg 38 ppg TY and HC Fedora returns to B12 country with all of his tricks. We like SM.
NO PLAY: KANSAS 38 SOUTHERN MISS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
SAN DIEGO STATE 71 205 16 3.1 –
AIR FORCE 339 125 38 1.8 –
PP’s projection makes it look like a blow out but we disagree. SDSt now has Rocky Long at DC
and he was a master at slowing the option at NM. We like San Diego St in this one.
NO PLAY: AIR FORCE 38 SAN DIEGO ST 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
VANDERBILT 168 158 28 2.5 –
RICE 93 208 14 2.7 ✔ ✔
LY Vandy beat an exp Rice tm 38-21 and TY Rice is rebuilding while VU is a veteran squad. PP
calls for a 14 pt win by VU (line 8’) but with just a 326-301 yd edge.
4★ VANDERBILT 28 RICE 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
BALL STATE 78 150 10 3.3 –
AUBURN 252 260 39 1.8 ✔
Two tms on opposite paths as Aub looks better every wk and BSU looks worse. PP calls for a 29
pt win (line 30) with a 512-228 yd edge. Even though Aub has a trip to Tenn on deck, we like Aub.
NO PLAY: AUBURN 39 BALL ST 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UNLV 96 210 21 1.8 ✔ ✔
WYOMING 129 215 16 2.1 –
First road game for the Rebels after scoring 31 ppg in their 1st 3. This forecast does surprise us
with WY having a 344-306 yd edge. UNLV put up 460 yds LW and we think they are the pick -5’.
NO PLAY: UNLV 21 WYOMING 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARKANSAS 33 255 22 2.2 –
ALABAMA 197 245 38 2.2 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Petrino & Co spent the offssn preparing for the GA gm and couldn’t stop the Dawgs LW, and now
they have to face the stifl ing D of Bama. PP calls for Bama to win by 16 which is right at the line.
NO PLAY: ALABAMA 38 ARKANSAS 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
FLORIDA 265 203 37 2.2 ✔ ✔
KENTUCKY 101 173 15 2.8 –
UF has won 22 in a row in this series but is 1-5 ATS as a DD fave vs UK. PP calls for a 22 pt win
with a 468-274 yd edge which is right at the line. We like Florida.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA 37 KENTUCKY 15
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA STATE 42 178 21 2.2 –
GEORGIA 154 258 36 3.5 ✔
No surprise with Georgia’s offense but the defense has now allowed 34 ppg in the fi rst 3. PP
projects they will get that corrected here as the Bulldogs fi nish with a 412-220 yd edge.
4★ GEORGIA 36 ARIZONA STATE 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
CALIFORNIA 190 205 37 2.1 ✔ ✔
OREGON 175 165 27 3.2 –
UO got a nice win vs Utah LW but now they face what could be the P10’s top team. PP is calling
for the Bears to fi nish with a 395-340 yd edge. They also have the TO & ST’s edges here.
4★ CALIFORNIA 37 OREGON 27
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
USF 126 215 25 3.5 –
FLORIDA STATE 174 245 28 2.1 –
Beating a non-BCS tm normally wouldn’t be a big deal but you know it was a confi dence builder for
FSU. USF lost QB Grothe with a torn ACL (68% of off LY) and this will be the Bulls’ 1st gm w/o him.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA STATE 28 USF 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NORTH CAROLINA 120 188 20 2.7 –
GEORGIA TECH 231 138 23 2.6 –
GT was held to 95 (2.4) rush LW but PP thinks they’ll regroup back at home. NC has a physical
defense but the projection is for the Yellow Jackets to fi nish with a 369-308 yd edge.
NO PLAY: GEORGIA TECH 23 NORTH CAROLINA 20
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IDAHO 103 175 14 2.5 –
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 222 195 33 2.1 ✔ ✔
Nice scheduling spot for NIll facing a weak non-conf opponent after knocking off Purdue LW. Remember
PP does not factor in a letdown which could occur. The forecast is for a 417-278 yd edge.
2★ NORTHERN ILLINOIS 33 IDAHO 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
COLORADO STATE 85 150 16 3.0 –
BYU 145 380 37 2.9 ✔
BYU is off their largest home loss since ‘04 and the undefeated Rams are the unfortunate opponent
on deck. PP is calling for a 525-235 yd edge as the Cougars regroup with a dominating win.
4.5★ BYU 37 COLORADO STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
PITTSBURGH 131 185 25 2.3 –
NC STATE 84 250 25 2.3 –
It can’t get much closer. Vegas has made this game a pick while PP is calling for 25 pts a piece.
The yards are only 18 apart, the TO’s are even and the special teams are even. Call it a tie.
NO PLAY: NC STATE 25 PITTSBURGH 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON 118 233 22 2.2 –
STANFORD 193 203 25 2.4 ✔ ✔ ✔
The Huskies took advantage of LW’s scheduling spot and now could fall into the same trap after
their upset of USC. We like the Cardinal with their yardage & special teams edges in this game.
NO PLAY: STANFORD 25 WASHINGTON 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, OH 109 230 22 3.3 –
KENT STATE 206 155 30 2.6 –
Kent was squashed LW w/o their star RB and w/o their QB. While their QB may return, PP is still
calling for them to have a 361-339 yd edge against a MU team that has been outscored 138-26.
NO PLAY: KENT STATE 30 MIAMI, OH 22
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISVILLE 102 183 20 3.0 –
UTAH 164 243 30 3.6 ✔
Both are off losses and this is a tough road trip for the Cardinals after letting one get away vs their
instate rival. PP is calling for Utah to have a 407-285 yd edge but with the line at 11.5 we like UL.
3★ LOUISVILLE (+) 20 UTAH 30
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIAMI, FL 152 205 26 2.7 ✔
VIRGINIA TECH 168 190 25 2.0 –
The Hurricanes have grown up in a hurry. We’re aware that Blacksburg is one of the NCAA’s toughest
trips but Miami QB Harris has become a leader and Miami’s defense is becoming a force.
NO PLAY: MIAMI, FL 26 VIRGINIA TECH 25
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NOTRE DAME 178 295 35 2.5 ✔ ✔
PURDUE 127 260 25 3.1 –
ND is facing their 3rd straight B10 team going 0-2 ATS vs Michigan. The offense hasn’t been the problem
and PP is calling for the Irish to fi nish with a 473-387 yd edge and hand PU its 3rd straight loss.
3★ NOTRE DAME 35 PURDUE 25
Each week STREAKERS looks at current runs on both the
ATS & Totals. A streak starts after 3 Wins/Losses/Overs/Unders
so this section will start if any teams qualify during the fourth
week of the season. Remember you can win many times during
a streak and lose only once.
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
UTEP 5 215 10 2.5 –
TEXAS 260 335 51 2.4 ✔ ✔ ✔
In LY’s visit by Texas, UTEP kept it close for 3Q before the Longhorns pulled away. No such luck this time
as PP is calling for a dominating win with UT fi nishing with a 595-220 yd edge. UT also has a bye on deck.
4★ TEXAS 51 (4.5★ is -35 of less) UTEP 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
IOWA 80 180 14 2.5 ✔
PENN STATE 160 205 22 3.0 –
While the PSU OL has underachieved, the defense certainly hasn’t. Everyone will be talking about
revenge and it looks like they’ll get it as the Lions fi nish with a 365-260 yd edge. We like PSU.
NO PLAY: PENN STATE 22 IOWA 14
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TEXAS TECH 70 393 36 2.9 ✔
HOUSTON 121 363 37 2.6 –
Who needs RBs? PP is calling for 756 combined yards passing with Houston having a 484-463
yd edge. We like a TT team that showed how tough they are having outgained Texas LW 414-340.
NO PLAY: HOUSTON 37 TEXAS TECH 36
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
NEW MEXICO STATE 110 163 16 2.7 –
NEW MEXICO 211 178 27 2.6 ✔ ✔
Both tms have new coaches and are struggling with new schemes. They’re 2 of the NCAA’s worst combining
for an 0-6 ATS record, failing to cover by 15 ppg. PP is calling for NM to fi nish with a 389-273 yd edge.
NO PLAY: NEW MEXICO 27 NEW MEXICO STATE 16
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WASHINGTON STATE 20 100 2 3.2 –
USC 335 325 47 2.7 ✔
It’s deja vu as USC beats Ohio St and loses to an unranked P10 team on the road. Lets look at
LY when they then rebounded to win the next 3 by a combined 141-10. The yards say 660-120!
3★ USC 47 WASHINGTON STATE 2
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ARIZONA 155 180 19 2.5 –
OREGON STATE 120 210 22 2.0 ✔
These 2 are a combined 0-6 ATS and PP projects Arizona with a 330-310 yd edge. We like the
Wildcats despite losing 9 of 10 times in the series vs an OSU team that has underachieved.
NO PLAY: OREGON STATE 22 ARIZONA 19
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
ULM 223 173 31 1.9 ✔ ✔
FLORIDA ATLANTIC 153 288 28 2.6 –
Both faced a pair of BCS teams prior to this conf opener. The offenses will both move the ball as PP
is projecting FAU with a 441-396 yd edge. ULM, however, has the TO & ST edge in the small upset.
4★ ULM 31 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
LOUISIANA 98 115 6 3.3 –
NEBRASKA 217 255 36 2.6 ✔ ✔
While NU is 3-0 ATS, LW’s loss was heartbreaking. If they rebound as expected it’s bad news for
the Cajuns getting outgained 472-213. Neb has already beaten a pair of SBC teams 87-12.
4★ NEBRASKA 36 LOUISIANA 6
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
WKU 75 128 10 2.5 ✔
NAVY 366 113 37 1.6 –
WKU was not only a dog to IAA C Ark LW, they were beaten soundly getting outgained 407-287. Now
they have to prepare for the option and it should be one-sided with a yardage forecast of 479-203.
NO PLAY: NAVY 37 WKU 10
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TROY 102 223 21 2.2 ✔ ✔
ARKANSAS STATE 159 198 24 2.3 –
Troy fi nally showed some life LW with a win over UAB while ASU was on a bye. PP has ASU with
a 357-325 yd edge but Troy is the 3 time SBC Champ and is 10-1 in conf road games.
NO PLAY: ARKANSAS STATE 24 TROY 21
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 153 238 31 2.6 ✔ ✔
NORTH TEXAS 158 238 24 3.2 –
PP doesn’t take into account that NT may have tossed in the towel LW w/out QB Dodge. Yet the
forecast is for the Mean Green to outgain the Raiders. We like NT and an upset wouldn’t surprise.
NO PLAY: MIDDLE TENNESSEE 31 NORTH TEXAS 24
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
TOLEDO 178 225 29 1.9 –
FIU 142 255 28 2.3 ✔ ✔
Toledo opened with B2B impressive offensive performances but Ohio St shut them out LW. FIU’s score
LW was misleading, as they scored 2 TD’s late for the backdoor. PP gives UT a 6 yd & 1 pt edge.
NO PLAY: TOLEDO 29 FIU 28
Yards Yards Turn Special
Rushing Passing Points Overs Teams
HAWAII 88 380 30 3.5 –
LOUISIANA TECH 172 265 30 3.0 ✔ ✔ ✔
The run and shoot is back at Hawaii and the Warriors are forecasted with 468 yds of offense. LT
has a more balanced offense and are home for this nationally televised Wednesday Night game.
NO PLAY: LOUISIANA TECH 30 HAWAII 30
Hey guys!!!
I have this info and didn't know where to post, hopefully won't get any heat.
CPAW if there is any inconvenience please just delate.
Thank's.
All Records as of 9/23/09
TOP 10 NFL HANDICAPPERS
#1 DIAMOND SPORTS (NFL 6-1 ~ 86%)
#2 COMPUTER KIDS (NFL 5-1 ~83%)
#3 ALLEN EASTMAN (NFL 9-2 ~ 82%)
#4 BACON SPORTS (NFL 4-1 ~ 80%)
#5 VEGAS CONNECTION (NFL 4-1 ~ 80%)
#6 JOE D SPORTS (NFL 3-1 ~ 75%)
#7 GAMEDAY (Bill Hilton) (NFL 5-2 ~ 71%)
#8 EASTCOAST CLIPPER (NFL 5-2 ~ 71%)
#9 PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITTSBURGH (NFL 13-6 ~ 68%)
#10 ANDRE GOMES (7-4 ~ 64%)
NFL "COLD AS ICE"
REED HARRIS (NFL 0-6)
TIM TRUSHEL (NFL 0-6)
LINECRUSHER (NFL 0-5)
CAROLINA SPORTS (NFL 0-4)
LT PROFITS (NFL 1-8)
NFL "STILL PERFECT"
1 LOCK (NFL 4-0)
MILLIONAIRE CLUB (NFL 3-0)
COWTOWN (NFL 3-0)
LOCKEROOM (NFL 2-0)
Z PLAY (NFL 2-0)
AL DEMARCO (NFL 2-0)
BILL BAILEY (NFL 2-0)
FAB 4 PICKS (NFL 2-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOP 10 NCAAF HANDICAPPERS
#1 INSIDE STEAM (CFB 8-1 ~ 89%)
#2 THE COACH (CFB 7-1 ~ 87%)
#3 VEGAS PIPELINE (CFB 6-1 ~ 86%)
#4 VEGAS CONNECTION (CFB 10-2 ~ 83%)
#5 1-LOCK (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#6 JB SPORTS (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#7 THE EDGE (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#8 EXECUTIVE (CFB 9-3 ~ 75%)
#9 BEN BURNS (CFB 15--5 ~ 75%)
#10 THE HOTLINE (CFB 11-4 ~ 73%)
NCAA FOOTBALL "COLD AS ICE"
UNDERDOG (CFB 0-3)
R&R TOTALS (NFL 0-3)
MIKE LINEBACK (CFB 1-10)
CHRIS JORDAN (CFB 3-9)
WILDCAT (CFB 4-9)
NCAAF "STILL PERFECT"
PURE LOCK (3-0)
CHRIS MOSS (3-0)
MILLIONAIRE CLUB (3-0)
PRIMETIME (6-0)
VIP LOCK CLUB (3-0)
I have this info and didn't know where to post, hopefully won't get any heat.
CPAW if there is any inconvenience please just delate.
Thank's.
All Records as of 9/23/09
TOP 10 NFL HANDICAPPERS
#1 DIAMOND SPORTS (NFL 6-1 ~ 86%)
#2 COMPUTER KIDS (NFL 5-1 ~83%)
#3 ALLEN EASTMAN (NFL 9-2 ~ 82%)
#4 BACON SPORTS (NFL 4-1 ~ 80%)
#5 VEGAS CONNECTION (NFL 4-1 ~ 80%)
#6 JOE D SPORTS (NFL 3-1 ~ 75%)
#7 GAMEDAY (Bill Hilton) (NFL 5-2 ~ 71%)
#8 EASTCOAST CLIPPER (NFL 5-2 ~ 71%)
#9 PRIVATE PLAYERS OF PITTSBURGH (NFL 13-6 ~ 68%)
#10 ANDRE GOMES (7-4 ~ 64%)
NFL "COLD AS ICE"
REED HARRIS (NFL 0-6)
TIM TRUSHEL (NFL 0-6)
LINECRUSHER (NFL 0-5)
CAROLINA SPORTS (NFL 0-4)
LT PROFITS (NFL 1-8)
NFL "STILL PERFECT"
1 LOCK (NFL 4-0)
MILLIONAIRE CLUB (NFL 3-0)
COWTOWN (NFL 3-0)
LOCKEROOM (NFL 2-0)
Z PLAY (NFL 2-0)
AL DEMARCO (NFL 2-0)
BILL BAILEY (NFL 2-0)
FAB 4 PICKS (NFL 2-0)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOP 10 NCAAF HANDICAPPERS
#1 INSIDE STEAM (CFB 8-1 ~ 89%)
#2 THE COACH (CFB 7-1 ~ 87%)
#3 VEGAS PIPELINE (CFB 6-1 ~ 86%)
#4 VEGAS CONNECTION (CFB 10-2 ~ 83%)
#5 1-LOCK (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#6 JB SPORTS (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#7 THE EDGE (CFB 4-1 ~ 80%)
#8 EXECUTIVE (CFB 9-3 ~ 75%)
#9 BEN BURNS (CFB 15--5 ~ 75%)
#10 THE HOTLINE (CFB 11-4 ~ 73%)
NCAA FOOTBALL "COLD AS ICE"
UNDERDOG (CFB 0-3)
R&R TOTALS (NFL 0-3)
MIKE LINEBACK (CFB 1-10)
CHRIS JORDAN (CFB 3-9)
WILDCAT (CFB 4-9)
NCAAF "STILL PERFECT"
PURE LOCK (3-0)
CHRIS MOSS (3-0)
MILLIONAIRE CLUB (3-0)
PRIMETIME (6-0)
VIP LOCK CLUB (3-0)
Winning Points
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