andy iskoe LOGICAL APPROACH
P. O. Box 20405 - - - Las Vegas, NV 89112 - - - (702) 898 - 9802
Visit us on the Web at thelogicalapproach DOTcom
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 2 Games through September 14, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: OHIO STATE + 7 over Usc - What a difference one game can make! For most of the summer the advance line for this contest was USC by 3. Then USC manhandles San Jose State as expected, 56-3. Meanwhile OSU barely survives against a well disciplined, well prepared Navy team, 31-27 and the line jumps more than a FG. This is a HUGE game for Ohio State as they seek to avenge last season's 35-3 loss at USC. This time it's USC with the rookie QB making his first road start in hostile environs. The Buckeyes were looking ahead last week and showed little versus Navy and although it almost cost them, there's no reason for Buckeye backers to panic. Most teams have trouble preparing for the Navy offense and had OSU not been putting in more time preparing for USC we might have well seen the one sided game many expected. USC is the better team and deserves to be favored. But there are some flaws on both sides of the ball the San Jose was unable to expose. Yet the results of the first week give plenty of ammo for those who think Ohio State will be overmatched again this season. But not so fast. Ohio State has been pointing towards this game all summer and while they may not have the talent to prevail they will give USC all they can handle. And will validate the number that was posted all summer. USC wins but by just 24-21.
Other Featured College Selections
South Carolina + 7 over GEORGIA - South Carolina won their opener on the strength of their defense against North Carolina State. Georgia's offense was pretty much held in check at Oklahoma State but the 'Dawgs' defense played well against the high powered and experienced OSU offense. This series has been low scoring and competitive over the past decade with 6 of 10 decided by a TD or less. Only once has the winner of the game scored more than 24 points and neither team has scored more than 20 points in any of the last 5 meetings. That makes getting a full TD extremely attractive especially when the favored team is still working out the kinks in their offense as Georgia replaces a pair of Top 12 NFL draft choices (QB Stafford and RB Moreno). Though Carolina coach Spurrier is noted for being an offensive innovator he also has long recognized the value of an athletic, speedy defense. That's his strength here. Georgia wins but by just 17-13.
Louisiana Tech + 7 over NAVY - Louisiana Tech was outclassed by a talented Auburn team that greatly underachieved in 2008. Navy was well prepared for their battle at Ohio State and nearly caught the Buckeyes at the end, failing when their attempted 2 point conversion was returned for a deuce the other way in OSU's 31-27 win. Both teams step down in class here but Tech has the better athletes. Next week they play regional FCS foe Nicholls State while Navy has a big revenge game at Pitt. La Tech may be the second best team in the WAC behind Boise and the program is well coached as noted last week. True, Navy did show more balance than expected last week against Ohio State, completing 9 of 13 for 156 yds. But that was against a most disinterested defense. With both teams off of expected losses each will want to avoid an 0-2 start and should give maximum effort here. In such instances it's best to side with the more talented team. And it's even more attractive when that team is made the underdog. Louisiana Tech pulls the upset, winning 31-23.
Virginia + 11 over Tcu - Losses can provide powerful motivation. Embarrassing losses can take that motivation to a higher level. That's where Virginia is this week after losing to FCS foe William & Mary 26-14 on their home field. It was their first loss to a non-FBS team in more than 20 years. Virginia has been a decent program for much of this decade although did drop from 9-4 in 2007 to 5-7 last season. TCU was one of two teams not to play last week and that can be a disadvantage here as they see live game action for the first time against a team having already played. TCU has been a solid program at the mid-major level all decade and has fared well on occasion when stepping up in class against BCS competition. Again, Virginia's loss last week adds great value to this line. TCU wins with defense but is nothing more than average on the offensive side of the football. Virginia has athletes every bit as talented as TCU's. Both teams have solid coaches with good track records. TCU's opened well on the road recently but asking them to win by a moderate margin when they don't clearly outclass the opponent is asking a lot. TCU wins but by just 27-21.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) GEORGIA TECH - 5 over Clemson [1] CONNECTICUT + 5 over North Carolina
East Carolina + 6 over WEST VIRGINIA Iowa - 6 ½ over IOWA STATE
Mississippi State + 14 ½ over AUBURN Byu - 17 over TULANE
OREGON -12 over Purdue MICHIGAN + 3 ½ over Notre Dame
BUFFALO + 10 ½ over Pittsburgh Air Force + 4 over MINNESOTA
INDIANA - 1 over Western Michigan Bowling Green + 19 over MISSOURI
Kansas - 11 over UTEP Central Florida + 15 over SOUTHERN MISS
LSU - 14 ½ over Vanderbilt Tulsa - 17 ½ over NEW MEXICO
SAN JOSE STATE + 13 ½ over Utah Oregon State - 7 over UNLV
Arkansas State + 23 over NEBRASKA Troy + 36 ½ over FLORIDA
The Rest (Opinions) Colorado - 4 over TOLEDO [2] Syracuse + 29 over PENN STATE
VIRGINIA TECH - 20 over Marshall Central Michigan + 14 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Eastern Michigan + 18 ½ over NORTHWESTERN Duke + 2 over ARMY
WISCONSIN - 8 ½ over Fresno State WAKE FOREST - 3 over Stanford
Ucla + 8 ½ over TENNESSEE Texas - 34 over WYOMING
Idaho + 21 over WASHINGTON ALA-BIRMINGHAM - 12 over Smu
BOSTON COLLEGE - 21 over Kent State TEXAS TECH - 27 ½ over Rice
Washington State + 2 over Hawaii OKLAHOMA STATE - 15 ½ over Houston
BOISE STATE - 36 ½ over Miami Ohio Florida International + 33 ½ over ALABAMA
WESTERN KENTUCKY + 25 over South Florida Ohio U - 3 over NORTH TEXAS
Memphis + 1 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE Kansas State - 8 over UL LAFAYETTE
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HOUSTON - 4 ½ over N Y Jets - Jets begin season with rookie QB Mark Sanchez running the offense and rookie head coach Rex Ryan roaming the sidelines. Though Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco proved otherwise last season, rookie quarterbacks generally struggle. Houston starts the season with great expectations as both their offense and defense are maturing well. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch last season to finish 8-8 after hurricane issues wreaked havoc with their early season schedule. They have an explosive offense and an improving defense that should play aggressively against the rookie QB. The Texans are 0-3 lifetime vs the Jets but this is both a new season and a new era. Houston takes the first step in showing they can indeed be a challenger for the Playoffs by defeating a team they should defeat. Houston wins 28-16.
Other Featured NFL Selections
Philadelphia - 1 over CAROLINA - Despite appearing in just one Super Bowl, under coach Andy Reid the Eagles have become an elite team, having now been to the Playoffs 7 times in the last 9 seasons, including 5 trips to the NFC Title game. NFC East teams have dominated fellow conference foes outside their Division in recent seasons. The Eagles are 24-12 ATS vs NFC teams outside the East since 2003, including 3 regular season wins and covers against Carolina. True, in 2003 the Panthers did knock Philly out of the Playoffs. Philly's defense should have success against aging Carolina QB Jake Delhomme while Eagle QB Donovan McNabb has added talent and depth at RB and WR. The Eagles have also excelled on the road with just one losing season away from home over the past 9 seasons. Philadelphia wins 26-17.
Dallas - 6 over TAMPA BAY - Dallas has the talent to still be playing in February. They enter this season without the burden of being Conference or even Division favorites. QB Tony Romo has plenty of supporting targets and may not miss T.O. as much as some expect. Owens dropped many a catchable pass in key spots last season. The defense has shown steady improvement the past two seasons. Tampa is a team in transition with a new coach. They just fired their offensive coordinator as training camp was winding down and they have issues at QB and an unsettled RB situation. The defense is aging and the Buccs allowed a half more yard per rush (4.3) last season than they did a season earlier. It's always tough to lay points on the road early in the season but the Cowboys have too many edges on both sides of the ball to ignore. They do have a tough home game against the Giants on deck so they cannot afford to give away a winnable game here against a team in transition at their most vulnerable time of the season. Dallas wins 24-13.
San Francisco + 6 ½ over ARIZONA - Arizona has a major edge at QB with Kurt Warner but the 49ers have the better rushing attack with Frank Gore. Both teams have defenses that are underrated as each has fared well vs the rush in recent seasons. Arizona could suffer Super Bowl letdown as many runnerups have over this decade. Niner coach Mike Singletary has infused his team with the mental toughness that made him such a great player in his days with the Bears . They made great strides after he took over in the middle of 2008. For the season the weak San Francisco offense improved 74 yards per game over 2007. These teams have generally played very competitive games over the years with 6 of the last 7 and 10 of 13 decided by a TD or less. We should see the line rise to a RD by kickoff and an outright upset would not surprise. San Francisco wins 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) PITTSBURGH - 6 over Tennessee [1] Miami + 4 over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Denver Washington + 6 ½ over N Y GIANTS
Chicago + 3 ½ over GREEN BAY NEW ENGLAND - 11 over Buffalo [4]
The Rest (Opinions) Kansas City + 13 over BALTIMORE Minnesota - 4 over CLEVELAND
Jacksonville + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS - 13 over Detroit
SEATTLE - 8 ½ over St Louis San Diego - 9 ½ over OAKLAND [4]
[1] Thursday, September 10
[2] Friday, September 11
[3] at Seattle, WA
[4] Monday, September 14
Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations) Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 35 Miami/Atlanta UNDER 43
Detroit/New Orleans OVER 48 ½ Dallas/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
San Francisco/Arizona OVER 46 Washington/N Y Giants UNDER 37 ½
Money Line Recommendations College CONNECTICUT Duke Louisiana Tech Air Force
Pro Miami Philadelphia Dallas Chicago
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. NOTE: All material is presented as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state or local law(s).
P. O. Box 20405 - - - Las Vegas, NV 89112 - - - (702) 898 - 9802
Visit us on the Web at thelogicalapproach DOTcom
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 2 Games through September 14, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: OHIO STATE + 7 over Usc - What a difference one game can make! For most of the summer the advance line for this contest was USC by 3. Then USC manhandles San Jose State as expected, 56-3. Meanwhile OSU barely survives against a well disciplined, well prepared Navy team, 31-27 and the line jumps more than a FG. This is a HUGE game for Ohio State as they seek to avenge last season's 35-3 loss at USC. This time it's USC with the rookie QB making his first road start in hostile environs. The Buckeyes were looking ahead last week and showed little versus Navy and although it almost cost them, there's no reason for Buckeye backers to panic. Most teams have trouble preparing for the Navy offense and had OSU not been putting in more time preparing for USC we might have well seen the one sided game many expected. USC is the better team and deserves to be favored. But there are some flaws on both sides of the ball the San Jose was unable to expose. Yet the results of the first week give plenty of ammo for those who think Ohio State will be overmatched again this season. But not so fast. Ohio State has been pointing towards this game all summer and while they may not have the talent to prevail they will give USC all they can handle. And will validate the number that was posted all summer. USC wins but by just 24-21.
Other Featured College Selections
South Carolina + 7 over GEORGIA - South Carolina won their opener on the strength of their defense against North Carolina State. Georgia's offense was pretty much held in check at Oklahoma State but the 'Dawgs' defense played well against the high powered and experienced OSU offense. This series has been low scoring and competitive over the past decade with 6 of 10 decided by a TD or less. Only once has the winner of the game scored more than 24 points and neither team has scored more than 20 points in any of the last 5 meetings. That makes getting a full TD extremely attractive especially when the favored team is still working out the kinks in their offense as Georgia replaces a pair of Top 12 NFL draft choices (QB Stafford and RB Moreno). Though Carolina coach Spurrier is noted for being an offensive innovator he also has long recognized the value of an athletic, speedy defense. That's his strength here. Georgia wins but by just 17-13.
Louisiana Tech + 7 over NAVY - Louisiana Tech was outclassed by a talented Auburn team that greatly underachieved in 2008. Navy was well prepared for their battle at Ohio State and nearly caught the Buckeyes at the end, failing when their attempted 2 point conversion was returned for a deuce the other way in OSU's 31-27 win. Both teams step down in class here but Tech has the better athletes. Next week they play regional FCS foe Nicholls State while Navy has a big revenge game at Pitt. La Tech may be the second best team in the WAC behind Boise and the program is well coached as noted last week. True, Navy did show more balance than expected last week against Ohio State, completing 9 of 13 for 156 yds. But that was against a most disinterested defense. With both teams off of expected losses each will want to avoid an 0-2 start and should give maximum effort here. In such instances it's best to side with the more talented team. And it's even more attractive when that team is made the underdog. Louisiana Tech pulls the upset, winning 31-23.
Virginia + 11 over Tcu - Losses can provide powerful motivation. Embarrassing losses can take that motivation to a higher level. That's where Virginia is this week after losing to FCS foe William & Mary 26-14 on their home field. It was their first loss to a non-FBS team in more than 20 years. Virginia has been a decent program for much of this decade although did drop from 9-4 in 2007 to 5-7 last season. TCU was one of two teams not to play last week and that can be a disadvantage here as they see live game action for the first time against a team having already played. TCU has been a solid program at the mid-major level all decade and has fared well on occasion when stepping up in class against BCS competition. Again, Virginia's loss last week adds great value to this line. TCU wins with defense but is nothing more than average on the offensive side of the football. Virginia has athletes every bit as talented as TCU's. Both teams have solid coaches with good track records. TCU's opened well on the road recently but asking them to win by a moderate margin when they don't clearly outclass the opponent is asking a lot. TCU wins but by just 27-21.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) GEORGIA TECH - 5 over Clemson [1] CONNECTICUT + 5 over North Carolina
East Carolina + 6 over WEST VIRGINIA Iowa - 6 ½ over IOWA STATE
Mississippi State + 14 ½ over AUBURN Byu - 17 over TULANE
OREGON -12 over Purdue MICHIGAN + 3 ½ over Notre Dame
BUFFALO + 10 ½ over Pittsburgh Air Force + 4 over MINNESOTA
INDIANA - 1 over Western Michigan Bowling Green + 19 over MISSOURI
Kansas - 11 over UTEP Central Florida + 15 over SOUTHERN MISS
LSU - 14 ½ over Vanderbilt Tulsa - 17 ½ over NEW MEXICO
SAN JOSE STATE + 13 ½ over Utah Oregon State - 7 over UNLV
Arkansas State + 23 over NEBRASKA Troy + 36 ½ over FLORIDA
The Rest (Opinions) Colorado - 4 over TOLEDO [2] Syracuse + 29 over PENN STATE
VIRGINIA TECH - 20 over Marshall Central Michigan + 14 ½ over MICHIGAN STATE
Eastern Michigan + 18 ½ over NORTHWESTERN Duke + 2 over ARMY
WISCONSIN - 8 ½ over Fresno State WAKE FOREST - 3 over Stanford
Ucla + 8 ½ over TENNESSEE Texas - 34 over WYOMING
Idaho + 21 over WASHINGTON ALA-BIRMINGHAM - 12 over Smu
BOSTON COLLEGE - 21 over Kent State TEXAS TECH - 27 ½ over Rice
Washington State + 2 over Hawaii OKLAHOMA STATE - 15 ½ over Houston
BOISE STATE - 36 ½ over Miami Ohio Florida International + 33 ½ over ALABAMA
WESTERN KENTUCKY + 25 over South Florida Ohio U - 3 over NORTH TEXAS
Memphis + 1 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE Kansas State - 8 over UL LAFAYETTE
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: HOUSTON - 4 ½ over N Y Jets - Jets begin season with rookie QB Mark Sanchez running the offense and rookie head coach Rex Ryan roaming the sidelines. Though Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Baltimore's Joe Flacco proved otherwise last season, rookie quarterbacks generally struggle. Houston starts the season with great expectations as both their offense and defense are maturing well. The Texans went 5-1 down the stretch last season to finish 8-8 after hurricane issues wreaked havoc with their early season schedule. They have an explosive offense and an improving defense that should play aggressively against the rookie QB. The Texans are 0-3 lifetime vs the Jets but this is both a new season and a new era. Houston takes the first step in showing they can indeed be a challenger for the Playoffs by defeating a team they should defeat. Houston wins 28-16.
Other Featured NFL Selections
Philadelphia - 1 over CAROLINA - Despite appearing in just one Super Bowl, under coach Andy Reid the Eagles have become an elite team, having now been to the Playoffs 7 times in the last 9 seasons, including 5 trips to the NFC Title game. NFC East teams have dominated fellow conference foes outside their Division in recent seasons. The Eagles are 24-12 ATS vs NFC teams outside the East since 2003, including 3 regular season wins and covers against Carolina. True, in 2003 the Panthers did knock Philly out of the Playoffs. Philly's defense should have success against aging Carolina QB Jake Delhomme while Eagle QB Donovan McNabb has added talent and depth at RB and WR. The Eagles have also excelled on the road with just one losing season away from home over the past 9 seasons. Philadelphia wins 26-17.
Dallas - 6 over TAMPA BAY - Dallas has the talent to still be playing in February. They enter this season without the burden of being Conference or even Division favorites. QB Tony Romo has plenty of supporting targets and may not miss T.O. as much as some expect. Owens dropped many a catchable pass in key spots last season. The defense has shown steady improvement the past two seasons. Tampa is a team in transition with a new coach. They just fired their offensive coordinator as training camp was winding down and they have issues at QB and an unsettled RB situation. The defense is aging and the Buccs allowed a half more yard per rush (4.3) last season than they did a season earlier. It's always tough to lay points on the road early in the season but the Cowboys have too many edges on both sides of the ball to ignore. They do have a tough home game against the Giants on deck so they cannot afford to give away a winnable game here against a team in transition at their most vulnerable time of the season. Dallas wins 24-13.
San Francisco + 6 ½ over ARIZONA - Arizona has a major edge at QB with Kurt Warner but the 49ers have the better rushing attack with Frank Gore. Both teams have defenses that are underrated as each has fared well vs the rush in recent seasons. Arizona could suffer Super Bowl letdown as many runnerups have over this decade. Niner coach Mike Singletary has infused his team with the mental toughness that made him such a great player in his days with the Bears . They made great strides after he took over in the middle of 2008. For the season the weak San Francisco offense improved 74 yards per game over 2007. These teams have generally played very competitive games over the years with 6 of the last 7 and 10 of 13 decided by a TD or less. We should see the line rise to a RD by kickoff and an outright upset would not surprise. San Francisco wins 27-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations) PITTSBURGH - 6 over Tennessee [1] Miami + 4 over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI - 4 ½ over Denver Washington + 6 ½ over N Y GIANTS
Chicago + 3 ½ over GREEN BAY NEW ENGLAND - 11 over Buffalo [4]
The Rest (Opinions) Kansas City + 13 over BALTIMORE Minnesota - 4 over CLEVELAND
Jacksonville + 7 over INDIANAPOLIS NEW ORLEANS - 13 over Detroit
SEATTLE - 8 ½ over St Louis San Diego - 9 ½ over OAKLAND [4]
[1] Thursday, September 10
[2] Friday, September 11
[3] at Seattle, WA
[4] Monday, September 14
Best of the NFL Totals (Recommendations) Tennessee/Pittsburgh OVER 35 Miami/Atlanta UNDER 43
Detroit/New Orleans OVER 48 ½ Dallas/Tampa Bay UNDER 39
San Francisco/Arizona OVER 46 Washington/N Y Giants UNDER 37 ½
Money Line Recommendations College CONNECTICUT Duke Louisiana Tech Air Force
Pro Miami Philadelphia Dallas Chicago
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. NOTE: All material is presented as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state or local law(s).
