winning points
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL
****BEST BET
NORTH CAROLINA over N. C. STATE* by 27
North Carolina has already matched last year’s win count, and has earned a bowl bid for the second straight season, which should be considered a major success for Butch Davis in just three years of running the program. But no matter what happens at bowl time, the only way this season can be measured a success for him is if his Tar Heels do not just win here, but win in style. He has taken a frustrating 0-2 collar vs. the program’s biggest football rival, including that 41-10 embarrassment in front of the home fans last year. That has haunted the Tar Heel players and coaches for a full year, and now they bring the proper focus, and confidence (a 4-0 run that includes road wins at Virginia Tech and Boston College brings plenty of the latter), to get their revenge in style. The key to the Carolina turnaround has been recruiting for speed and developing playmakers on defense, and that is what sets the tone this week – they have already come up with 28 takeaways this season, returning six of them directly for scores, and that spells bad news for Russell Wilson, who has thrown at least one interception in every A.C.C. game, after having just one in all of his freshman season. Part of that stems from Wilson having to force action because the Wolfpack defense has been so inept, and that does not change here as those defenders wear down. Also no real home field advantage when these two meet in Raleigh, with plenty of seats available for folks wearing powder blue. NORTH CAROLINA 40-13.
****BEST BET
MISSOURI over KANSAS by 21 (at Kansas City)
These are dark times for Mark Mangino, with a season that has spiraled out of control now potentially becoming a program spiraling out of control as well. It appears almost inevitable that he will be dismissed from his duties in Lawrence, perhaps even before this game kicks off, and we believe that regardless of when that announcement takes place this one gets ugly. The last thing a battered, beaten and distracted Jayhawk teams needs right now is to face an arch rival that comes in much fresher, and with a chip on their shoulder. In going 0-6 down the stretch the Kansas confidence has obviously been lost, but just as important this week is that the Jayhawks have had to face bowl opponents in four of their last five games (the other being a tough grudge match loss to Kansas State), and the last two weeks they went up against Nebraska and Texas, the two most physical teams in the Big 12. That leaves precious little for the fuel gauge to read. Meanwhile the Missouri schedule down the stretch has been the opposite, with the last four being Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State, and that has not only led to some favorable scoreboards, but it also leaves the bodies much fresher. Of particular note is Blake Gabbert’s ankle now at 100 percent, and a Tiger offense that has thrown for 1,103 yards in the last three games can overwhelm a slow Kansas secondary. Without a ground game to slow things down and keep that defense off the field, the pace gets completely away from the Jayhawks. MISSOURI 42-21.
**PREFERRED
Buffalo over Kent State* by 10 (Friday)
In going from 8-6, a M.A.C. Championship, and a Bowl game, to the current 4-7, most pundits talk about how far Buffalo has fallen this season. The funny thing is that has not been the case. The offense has actually improved from 370 yards per game to 413, while the defense has gone from allowing 408 to just 359. The big difference has been in the bounces – the Bulls were extraordinarily fortunate in going +19 in turnovers last year, and are -4 in that category this time around. But the bottom line is that snap for snap they have been a better team, and showed in last week’s rout of Miami O. that there is plenty left in the tank. Now in only their second game in 17 days they bring that same physical energy, and motivation comes easy as they remember last year’s 24-21 home loss to this opponent. And the Golden Flashes have a short practice week, right after the defense allowed Temple to run for 275 yards at 7.2 per carry despite Bernard Pierce touching the ball only one time. BUFFALO 31-21.
Tulsa* over Memphis by 27 (Friday)
After four straight bowl appearances, and back-to-back campaigns of double-figure wins in Todd Graham’s first two seasons, it has been a disappointing autumn for the Golden Hurricanes. But those past successes means that this is a roster filled with pride, and those players get a chance to have one of those cathartic blowouts that can vent some of those frustrations. And they get the ideal opponent for those purposes. Any feelings that the Memphis players had for Tommy West were supposed to have shown the last two weeks, and note that as bad as the Tigers looked on the scoreboard they were much worse – they trailed U.A.B. 31-7 after three quarters at home of that misleading 31-21 final, and last week Houston mercifully backed off when it was 55-14 in the third quarter, not scoring in the final stanza as Case Keenum stayed on the sidelines. Both of those teams had some reason to hold back but Tulsa does not, and as the score builds the resistance from the underdog dwindles completely. TULSA 40-13.
Wake Forest over Duke* by 14
The career of Riley Skinner and a good core group of seniors is not going out the way that the Demon Deacons had expected – after three straight winning seasons and bowl appearances it has been a major disappointment. But now that makes this their bowl game, and with two full weeks to prepare, we can expect Jim Grobe and a program that has a lot of pride to bring their “A” game. It does not take much more than that to win easily this week, with no real home field advantage to overcome, and the Blue Devils simply out of gas. Duke has been out-scored 58-6 in the second half in three November games, including 38-0 in the fourth quarter, and at this stage there simply is no way to re-energize tired bodies. A ground game that has not reached 100 yards vs. a line opponent does not produce enough yards to buy Thaddeus Lewis time in the pocket, or eat enough clock to keep their own defense off the field, and this week Skinner goes out in style vs. those fading defenders. WAKE FOREST 34-20.
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma* by 4
We fully expect Zac Robinson to be back at QB for the Cowboys in this one, but even if he does not go the line will be adjusted enough for his absence to keep us in play. The bottom line is that the Cowboys are the flat out better team right now, with the far superior running game, and for once a defense that can stand toe-to-toe with their neighbors from Norman. We have seen a transformation take place in Stillwater this fall, with State going from being a finesse team that got pushed around vs. the better teams they faced to a much more physical side, and in three November wins they have rushed for 806 yards. Meanwhile they have held six straight opponents to less than 100 yards overland, and note that even in that failure vs. Texas they held the Longhorns to 17 first downs and 275 yards. Now they can control matters vs. that patchwork Sooner OL that never did develop this season, and that makes it tough for Bob Stoops & Co. to win outright, much less get a margin. OKLAHOMA STATE 24-20.
*CLOSE CALLS
Western Michigan* over Ball State by 9 (Tuesday)
Cardinals bring a rare late-season quality for a bad team, having out-rushed each of their last four opponents. That eats enough clock here to limit Tim Hiller’s chances for big numbers in his final outing. WESTERN MICHIGAN 33-24.
Texas over Texas A&M* by 22 (Thursday)
As noted in our Saturday forecast, the Aggies have been as erratic as any team in the land this fall, and a short practice week can often mean even more randomness. TEXAS 38-16.
Pittsburgh over West Virginia* by 3 (Friday)
The stakes are high and both teams are fresh off of byes for the Backyard Brawl, and the Panther edge in offensive consistency decides it. PITTSBURGH 23-20.
Rutgers over Louisville* by 7 (Friday)
Rutgers should be the much fresher side, playing for only the third time in 27 November days, but we tried to use that logic at Syracuse last week and got scorched. A week too early, or just plain wrong? RUTGERS 27-20.
Akron* over Eastern Michigan by 14 (Friday)
The last time they played before the home fans the Zips saw Temple close the game on a 49-0 run. A chance for redemption. AKRON 35-21.
Wyoming over Colorado State* by 3 (Friday)
Although the Cowboy offense has been completely inept against the better teams on the schedule, they are 3-0 SU and ATS against the lower echelon of the Mountain West. The Rams are a member of that club. WYOMING 27-24.
Temple over Ohio* by 1 (Friday)
We will need to know more about the status of Bernard Pierce before making a bigger call here, but that Ohio rabbits foot (nine special teams or defensive TD’s) has to wear out sometime, doesn’t it? TEMPLE 23-22.
Alabama over Auburn* by 10 (Friday)
Having had both a walkover vs. Furman and a bye in November brings Auburn in as fresh as the 12th game allows, and can the Crimson Tide help but be caught looking ahead to Florida a bit, even in this rivalry. ALABAMA 26-16.
Cincinnati* over Illinois by 15 (Friday)
The Bearcats have only gone 1-3 ATS as home chalk this season, with the defense allowing 444 yards vs. Fresno, 462 vs. Connecticut, and 390 vs. West Virginia in the ATS failures. If Illinois brings some life, there are some open doors. CINCINNATI 37-22.
Nebraska over Colorado* by 8 (Friday)
A potential flat spot for Nebraska with the Big 12 title spot clinched, and the Cornhuskers do not bring much offense. But Colorado has allowed five TD’s when the offense or special teams were on your field, so if you back the dog hold your breath. NEBRASKA 24-16.
Bowling Green* over Toledo by 10 (Friday)
Dave Clawson and Tim Beckman go head-to-head for the first time in this short bus-ride of a rivalry, and a Falcon offense that only has 13 turnovers will stay on the field for long stretches vs. a defense that has not made many plays. BLOWING GREEN 38-28.
Central Michigan* over Northern Illinois by 9 (Friday)
Some of the fire went out of this one when Northern Illinois fell out of the M.A.C. race on Saturday, but even with a spot in the league title game clinched, the last home game for Dan LeFevour still brings some special emotion for the Chippewas. C.M.U. 31-22.
Boise State* over Nevada by 12 (Friday)
It is the brilliance of the Wolfpack ground game vs. the overall excellence of the Broncos for all of he W.A.C. marbles, and while Chris Ault is only 5-12 ATS as a road underdog since his return to the sidelines, one of those successes was that 69-68 loss in four O.T.’s here two years ago, the best regular season game this conference has ever produced. BOISE STATE 40-28.
Virginia Tech over Virginia* by 18
Almost assuredly the last go-round for Al Groh, and Frank Beamer has the kind of class to go easy with a big lead. Which he will have. VIRGINIA TECH 31-13.
Connecticut* over Syracuse by 12
Kudos to Doug Marrone for having his depleted roster control Rutgers wire-to-wire last week. And the same effort has them in the hunt for a while against what could be a drained group of Huskies. CONNECTICUT 29-17.
Clemson over South Carolina* by 2
Clemson had to work longer and harder than Dabo Swinney would have liked vs. Virginia to clinch that spot in the A.C.C. title tilt, and that could show against a Gamecock squad that was able to take the week off. CLEMSON 26-24.
Kentucky* over Tennessee by 2
The Volunteers should have gotten better on defense down the stretch, as they learn those Monte Kiffin schemes, right? What has happened instead escapes us. KENTUCKY 24-22.
Mississippi over Mississippi State* by 10
Now that Houston Nutt has no more fears of Dexter McCluster wearing down, he can cut him loose in this one, which gives the Rebels outstanding balance. The Bulldogs are strictly Anthony Dixon, with the passing game failing to develop. MISSISSIPPI 27-17.
T.C.U.* over New Mexico by 45
Mike Locksley has been able to accomplish just enough down the stretch for this to not be a lost season for the Lobos, but there is no possible way for it to end well here. T.C.U. 48-3.
East Carolina* over Southern Miss by 3
East Carolina can prevent a muddled tie-breaker in the Eastern Division of Conference USA by winning here. Southern can create the mess by done the same. And it really does look that close. EAST CAROLINA 27-24.
Central Florida over U.A.B.* by 5
For as special as Joe Webb has been this season, a one-man gang is not going to beat this stout Golden Knight defense, which has allowed 129 rushing yards in four November games. And that includes facing Texas and Houston. U.C.F. 27-22.
U.T.E.P.* over Marshall by 3
Be on the alert for mid-week news announcements that could have either Mark Snyder or Mike Price taking the field as lame ducks. U.T.E.P. 30-27.
S.M.U.* over Tulane by 21
The Mustangs take the field still alive for the Conference USA title game. The Green Wave play the third straight road game, and showed no particular interesting in competing at Central Florida last week. S.M.U. 35-14.
Texas Tech over Baylor by 21 (at Arlington)
The Baylor bye week came all the way back on September 12th, when they still had Robert Griffin in the fold. The tank is empty. TEXAS TECH 37-16.
Florida* over Florida State by 28
E. J. Manual could be in way over his head on the road vs. this class of defense, and with only a walk-on behind him there are no other options if things go badly. Which they will. FLORIDA 37-9.
Georgia Tech* over Georgia by 12
The Georgia defense struggled to make tackles in the first look at Paul Johnson’s schemes, allowing 45 points and 409 rushing yards on their own turf last year. And tackling has certainly not been a strong suit for the Bulldogs this season. GEORGIA TECH 35-23.
Brigham Young* over Utah by 11
The Cougars bring a major edge in experience and QB, and also long and bitter memories from last year’s 48-24 road defeat, when an 0-6 turnover differential was the dominant factor in the scoreboard result. B.Y.U. 30-19.
Houston* over Rice by 28
The Owls have shown some resiliency since their bye week to open November, but that was also getting a schedule role of the dice through the bottom of the conference. But it is snake eyes this week. HOUSTON 45-17.
Idaho* over Utah State by 6
With two full weeks to prepare, expect a supreme effort from an Idaho team that probably does get a bowl invite if an 8-4 can be posted. But remember what pressure can do to teams that are not accustomed to it. IDAHO 33-27.
Washington* over Washington State by 29
The Cougars close with their seventh game in as many weeks. The Huskies come in fresh, and have no reason to hold back, which most State opponents have chosen to do again this season. WASHINGTON 45-16.
Arizona State* over Arizona by 1
The kind of draining defeat that the Wildcats suffered deep into the night on Saturday now sets them up for one of those natural upset settings in which a rival can turn around a bad season with a single “W”. A.S.U. 24-23.
Boston College over Maryland* by 7
The Eagles have been too mistake-prone (multiple turnovers in six different games) to get any kind of margin on the road, even with the expected command of the trenches. BOSTON COLLEGE 26-19.
Miami F. over South Florida* by 7
The Bulls were able to rush for over 400 yards in their last two home games, getting a pair of double-figure wins, but this defensive front does bring a higher level of challenge. Not sure they can do it vs. this class. MIAMI F. 27-20.
L.S.U.* over Arkansas by 8
Arkansas has allowed five TD’s of 50 yards or more in three S.E.C. road games, and Ryan Mallett faces a pass rush that will test his limited mobility. Tiger revenge, to boot. L.S.U. 28-20.
San Jose State* over New Mexico State by 13
We will likely not lay the points, but there would be nothing wrong with sitting back and rooting for Dick Tomey to win his LHG on Saturday night. SAN JOSE STATE 30-17.
Stanford* over Notre Dame by 11
It is not so much a matter of Notre Dame possibly losing heart, but the fact that even on their best days the interior defense would not be a match for Toby Gerhart on the road. STANFORD 35-24.
San Diego State over U.N.L.V.* by 1
We have always felt that a late bye week for a team with a lame duck coach is much more of a hindrance than a helper when they take the field again. The Rebels fit that bill. SAN DIEGO STATE 28-27.
Southern Cal* over U.C.L.A. by 16
The Trojans have not had to go through this kind of soul searching since before Pete Carroll came on board. But not the spot for us to step in, because they really have looked that bad. SOUTHERN CAL 29-13.
Navy over Hawaii* by 11
The Midshipmen should have some excellent fan support on the islands, and that relentless ground game can wear down a depth-shy Warrior defensive interior. NAVY 34-23.
Florida Atlantic* over Western Kentucky by 18
Could the Hilltoppers be saving their best effort to get David Elson a win in his swan song next week? F.A.U. 37-19.
Middle Tennessee State over UL-Monroe* by 7
A 5-0 SU and ATS run down the stretch sees the Blue Raiders clicking on all cylinders, and with bowl scouts watching now the momentum continues in this one. M.T.S. 31-24.
Arkansas State* over North Texas by 10
The youth movement by Steve Roberts in recent weeks has not helped matters for the floundering Red Wolves, so does he go back to some of the seniors in their LHG? ARKANSAS STATE 34-24.
Troy over UL-Lafayette* by 12
The chance to finish with a perfect Sun Belt record keeps the Trojans on track to the final whistle. TROY 35-23.
NFL
****BEST BET
*St. Louis over Seattle by 17
The Seahawks ruined Steve Spagnuolo’s head coaching debut, blanking the Rams, 28-0, opening week in Seattle. Since then the Seahawks have lost seven of nine games. Their only victories during this span were at home against Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were their only two pointspread covers, too. The Rams have covered their last three games. No, we’re not even hinting the Rams are a respectable team. They most certainly are not. However, we are saying the Rams are still playing hard for Spagnuolo. They have the best player on the field, Steven Jackson and that the Seahawks are very bad, too. Seattle has dropped 19 of its last 26 games. The Seahawks also happen to be in a far worse situational spot. This is St. Louis’ third straight home game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in a row. Being away on Thanksgiving week is especially tough. Seattle hasn’t been competitive as a visitor. The Seahawks have lost 13 of their past 15 away matchups. This season has been particularly brutal for Seattle away from Qwest Field. The Seahawks have played five road contests – losing and failing to cover each time. They’ve lost these five games by a combined 88 points, an average losing margin of 17.6 points. Their closest road game was losing to Arizona by 11 points. Out of the playoff picture, Jim Mora Jr. is going to start playing younger players. Already the Seahawks are going with Justin Forsett as their main ball-carrier with Julius Jones injured and Edgerrin James waived. The Seahawks have multiple offensive line injuries. The Seahawks have injuries at linebacker and in their defensive backfield. Jackson gives the Rams a rushing/receiving threat the Seahawks don’t have. He’s averaging 132 yards rushing in his last four games. ST. LOUIS 30-13.
***BEST BET
Pittsburgh over *Baltimore by 16
We’re aware Ben Roethlisberger may have suffered a possible concussion during Pittsburgh’s overtime last week at Kansas City and may not play. We’re fine with getting extra points because of that and Charlie Batch, one of the better backups, behind center. We’re certainly fine if Roethlisberger, having his finest statistical season, plays. The Ravens’ pass rush loses a lot without injured Terrell Suggs. Their secondary is vulnerable no matter who the quarterback is, especially against Pittsburgh’s multi-dimensional attack. Ageless Hines Ward remains a top possession receiver to go with speedsters Santonio Holmes, Mike Williams and underrated, reliable tight end Heath Miller. But what makes the Steelers intriguing is their ground game has improved tremendously with the switch to Rashard Mendenhall from Willie Parker. Mendenhall has averaged more than five yards per carry in four of his last seven games. Ray Rice is an excellent all-purpose back for Baltimore. Pittsburgh, though, has held all but one of its foes to under 100 yards rushing. Only two opponents have averaged more than four yards per rush against the Steelers. That means Joe Flacco needs a big game. Flacco looked much improved from his rookie season early this season. He’s tallied off since then throwing for more than 200 yards once since Week 6. Flacco has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last four games. His wide receivers don’t offer much. The best is Derrick Mason, a serviceable veteran past his prime. The Steelers play the Ravens with a great deal of confidence after sweeping all three meetings last season, including 23-14 in the playoffs. The Steelers are generally at their clutch best in AFC North Division action having won 13 of their last 16 division matchups. PITTSBURGH 26-10.
**PREFERRED
Miami over *Buffalo by 11
Dick Jauron had to go. But let’s face it, the Bills can’t win unless a team hands them a game. The Dolphins are a smart, ground-oriented club that can hammer Buffalo into submission. It doesn’t matter that Ronnie Brown is out. Ricky Williams has discovered the fountain of youth. Miami has outscored Buffalo, 79-29, during the past three meetings, including a 38-10 waltz in Week 4. The Bills have lost eight of their last nine home contests. Don’t look for that trend to reverse in Perry Fewell’s first home game as head coach. The Bills also have lost eight of their past nine AFC East games. Buffalo usually provides an effort, but scheme and talent are woefully lacking. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an NFL-starting caliber quarterback. He lacks touch and locks into Terrell Owens, a player the Dolphins are not going to let beat them. The Bills’ already-limited offense may also be without running back Marshawn Lynch (check status). Only once in their last eight games have the Bills had more than 300 yards of offense. That came last week against Jacksonville thanks to a 98-yard hook up between Fitzpatrick and Owens against a backup Jacksonville cornerback. Miami has rebounded to win four of its last six. They’ve had 10 full days to rest and to prepare. MIAMI 24-13.
*San Francisco over Jacksonville by 12
San Francisco has a better blueprint, coaching and morale than Jacksonville. The 49ers can run with Frank Gore, stop the run having allowed an NFL-best 3.3 yards per rush through Week 11, enjoy top-notch special teams and finally have receiving weapons with Vernon Davis and good-looking rookie Michael Crabtree. The key for the 49ers is getting something out of quarterback Alex Smith. Look for Smith to have success against a below-average Jacksonville secondary that again could be missing its best cornerback, Rashean Mathis. The Jaguars also could be missing linebacker Justin Durant. A big reason why Jacksonville is vulnerable through the air is because its pass rush is so weak. The 49ers have been able to withstand an injury to left tackle Joe Staley, their best offensive lineman. Maurice Jones-Drew has 718 totals yard and eight touchdowns in his last five games. He’s a top-10 runner. The Jaguars don’t offer much else on offense. Quarterback David Garrard has just two touchdowns on the road. This is a tough cross-country trip for the Jaguars. The 49ers play hard every week for Mike Singletary. The same can’t be said for the Jaguars. They have not demonstrated that kind of chemistry with their coach, Jack Del Rio. SAN FRANCISCO 28-16.
*CLOSE CALLS
Green Bay over *Detroit by 12 (Thursday)
The Pilgrims may never have wanted to land in American if they had to watch the Lions play on Thanksgiving. This figures to be another ugly Lions performance. Detroit’s last ranked pass defense is no match for Aaron Rodgers and his flock of big-play receiving targets. The Packers have beaten the Lions eight straight times, including blanking them 26-0 in Week 6. It doesn’t matter that Green Bay has allowed 43 sacks and will be without defensive stalwarts Aaron Kampman and Al Harris. The Packers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games and have too much offense for Detroit, especially if Matthew Stafford (check status) is unable to go. GREEN BAY 35-23.
*Dallas over Oakland by 17 (Thursday)
Tony Romo performs best on holidays, where he’s 3-0 with 10 touchdown passes and 832 yards, and he’s 14-1 in his November starts. Marion Barber and Felix Jones can take advantage of an Oakland defense that has surrendered a league-high 16 touchdowns on the ground. Keep in mind, though, the Cowboys are in offensive slump having put up just seven points during each of the last two weeks. Bruce Gradowski doubled the Raiders’ touchdown passes on the season throwing two this past Sunday. Before getting too excited, Gradowski is a journeyman with around a 60 passer rating and an 11-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio in four seasons. DALLAS 29-12.
New York Giants over *Denver by 7 (Thursday)
The combination of Kyle Orton’s bad ankle and a run defense that’s developed a huge run leak makes the Broncos less than a stellar home dog. The Giants had to beat Atlanta in OT last week to avoid losing for a fifth straight time. As it is, New York has failed to cover in its last five contests. But the Giants have the power ground game to gash a worn down Denver rush defense that is giving up 168 yards per contest during their last five games. The Broncos surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground to San Diego last Sunday at home. The Chargers entered the matchup ranked last in rushing averaging 3.2 yards per carry. NY GIANTS 24-17.
Indianapolis over *Houston by 4
Sooner or later, the Colts’ 19-game regular-season winning streak is coming to a halt. Indianapolis has won its last four games by a combined 10 points. One of these victories occurred three weeks ago versus the Texans, 20-17, when Houston kicker Kris Brown missed a 42-yard field goal as time expired. The Colts have never lost to the Texans in 15 meetings. This is Houston’s finest team, though, and the Texans have covered eight of those 15 games. Houston entered its Monday night game against the Titans on an 11-4-1 covering run. The over has cashed eight of the last nine times in the series. INDIANAPOLIS 34-30.
*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 17
Have the Browns suddenly turned a corner offensively with Brady Quinn after scoring four touchdowns against the Lions this past Sunday? We’d put far more credence into that question if the surprising scoring outburst didn’t occur on carpet against the Lions. Before that game, Cleveland had scored five touchdowns on offense in their previous 15 games. The Browns are the worst team in football, losers of 15 of their last 16. The problem with the other side is Cincinnati’s record as chalk. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS as favorites and 5-12 ATS when meeting a team with a losing record. The Browns took the Bengals to overtime in the first meeting, out-gaining them, 395-375. CINCINNATI 27-10.
*Minnesota over Chicago by 9
Forget Comeback of the Year. Brett Favre is a legitimate MVP candidate. Favre has transformed the inconsistent Vikings into a serious Super Bowl threat with an amazing 21-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while pumping up his teammates to reach great heights. The Vikings have won 14 of their last 16 games, including their last five at home. Taking their cue from erratic Jay Cutler, the Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. Cutler has a 7-to-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from Solider Field. He’s had road quarterback ratings of 33.6, 43.2, 64.1 and 79.6. Minnesota has defeated Chicago six of the last seven times in the Metrodome, covering five of the matchups. MINNESOTA 29-20.
*Philadelphia over Washington by 14
The Redskins have revenge for a 27-17 Week 7 loss. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games. Philadelphia is not likely to have Brian Westbrook. If you want to back the underdog, however, this is what you’re up against: The Redskins very well could be down to their third-string tailback, third-string right guard, while also missing tight end Chris Cooley and possibly dominant defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Washington is 4-11-3 ATS in its last 18 games. Big changes obviously are coming in D.C. It’s just too bad for Redskins fans that one of those changes isn’t a new owner. PHILADELPHIA 20-6.
Arizona over *Tennessee by 3
Don’t expect to see a line until it’s clearly established just who is going to be Arizona’s starting quarterback. The difference between Kurt Warner and disappointing backup Matt Leinart is that huge. The Cardinals haven’t been this good on the road in nearly 35 years going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. The return of inside linebacker Gerald Hayes helps their run defense. Vince Young went into Monday night with improved accuracy going 44-for-62 in his three starts, all victories. This is a division sandwich for Tennessee having faced Houston on the road Monday and with an away matchup against the Colts next week. ARIZONA 24-21.
*Atlanta over Tampa Bay by 13
This is Tampa Bay’s first dome game, but the Bucs have covered 14 of their last 18 games in Atlanta. The Falcons have been bad for the most part on the road this season, but tough in their Georgia Dome where they are 4-0 SU and ATS. Michael Turner has rushed for 428 yards in his last three games, averaging 9.1 yards a carry during this span. However, he missed last week’s overtime loss to the Giants and probably won’t play leaving the heavy-duty backfield load to Jason Snelling. It’s a plus if second-string tailback Jerious Norwood can play. He also missed last Sunday. Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS since Josh Freeman became the starting quarterback. ATLANTA 30-17.
*New York Jets over Carolina by 6
The Jets’ once-formidable rush defense has lost their swagger and beef with nose guard Kris Jenkins out. That’s been a huge contributor to New York losing six of its last seven. Carolina can run the ball effectively with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. However, the Panthers are missing offensive left tackle Jordan Gross and linebacker Thomas Davis, two of their best players. Carolina lacks a consistent passing attack to beat the Jets on the road where weather could be a factor. Thomas Jones has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. NY JETS 23-17.
*San Diego over Kansas City by 12
Philip Rivers tossed three touchdowns and the Chargers held Matt Cassel to a 25.3 quarterback rating when they buried the Chiefs, 37-7, at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7. San Diego is playing its best ball, winning five in a row. Rivers should have another field day against a slow Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs are without their best wideout, suspended Dwayne Bowe. Their ground game is more dangerous, though, with Jammal Chargers running instead of plodding Larry Johnson. This is a flat spot for San Diego, off a big revenge victory at Denver. The Chiefs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games. SAN DIEGO 28-16.
*New Orleans over New England by 1 (Monday)
After watching the Browns last Monday night, we deserve a matchup such as this. The Saints have covered seven of their last 10 games at the Louisiana Superdome. They are 10-1 ATS at home when facing non-division opponents. New England has struggled on the road losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts. Its only away victory was versus Tampa Bay in London. Tom Brady will be dangerous against a Saints secondary that could be missing their two top cornerbacks, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Reggie Bush (check status) missed last week. NEW ORLEANS 28-27.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Indianapolis at Houston – Two explosive offenses match up with the Colts averaging 36 points in their last eight games against Houston.
UNDER: Washington at Philadelphia – Averaging just 14.6 points this season, it’s not a huge surprise the offensively-battered Redskins are 16-5-1 under in their last 22 games.
OVER: Green Bay at Detroit – The Packers are 25-6-1 over in their last 32 carpet games and are banged-up defensively.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Green Bay at Detroit – The Packers blanked the Lions, 26-0, in Week 6. Green Bay is 8-0 SU versus the Lions, but 3-11 ATS as road chalk against Detroit.
Oakland at Dallas – Oakland defeated Dallas, 19-13, at home in 2005.
New York Giants at Denver – The Giants squeaked past the Broncos, 24-23, at home in 2005.
Indianapolis at Houston – The Colts held off the Texans, 20-17, in Week 9. The Colts are 14-1 SU lifetime versus the Texans, but 7-8 ATS. Eight of the last nine in the series have gone over.
Cleveland at Cincinnati – The Bengals edged the Browns, 23-20, in overtime in Week 4. The Bengals are 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 versus Cleveland.
Chicago at Minnesota – The teams split last season with the Bears winning 48-41 at home and losing 34-14 on the road. The Vikings are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven hosting Chicago.
Washington at Philadelphia – The Eagles beat the Redskins, 27-17, in Week 7.
Miami at Buffalo – The Dolphins romped past the Bills, 38-10, in Week 4. The Bills are 8-3 ATS, 7-4 SU during the past 11 games against Miami.
Arizona at Tennessee – The Cardinals defeated the Titans, 20-10, at home in 2005.
Seattle at St. Louis – The Seahawks shut out the Rams, 28-0, in Week 1. Seattle is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings versus St. Louis.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta – The teams split last season with the Buccaneers winning 24-9 at home and losing 13-10 in OT at Atlanta. The Buccaneers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings versus the Falcons.
Carolina at New York Jets – The Panthers destroyed the Jets, 30-3, at home in 2005.
Jacksonville at San Francisco – The Jaguars edged the 49ers, 10-9, at home in 2005.
Kansas City at San Diego – The Chargers beat KC 37-7, in Week 7.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The Steelers went 3-0 SU versus the Ravens last season winning 23-20 in OT at home, 13-9 on the road and 23-14 at home in the playoffs. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS hosting Pittsburgh the past six times.
New England at New Orleans – The Patriots knocked off the Saints, 24-17, at home in 2005.
NBA
Thursday, November 26
*Atlanta over Orlando by 5
Fading the Hawks at Philips Arena hasn’t been the way to go this season. Atlanta has won its first seven home contests. The Hawks should be plenty fresh having last played on Saturday. ATLANTA 100-95.
*Utah over Chicago by 7
The Jazz haven’t been unable to avoid injuries and their defense ranked among the 12 worst. They catch the Bulls, though, on an extended road journey. This marks the Bulls’ fifth road contest in 10 days. UTAH 109-102.
Friday, November 27
Atlanta over *Philadelphia by 2
A victory by Atlanta over Orlando on Thursday could set up a letdown spot in this matchup. The Hawks, though, have looked like an elite team leading the league in points scored in the paint. The 76ers have beaten only one team besides the Knicks, Nets and Bobcats during their first 14 games. Elton Brand was averaging less than 10 points and six rebounds per game. ATLANTA 101-99.
***BEST BET
Washington over *Miami by 5
Rarely have Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison been on the court together during the past two years. But when they are, Washington is a formidable foe especially with improved pivot play. The underrated Jamison is the only player besides Dirk Nowitzki to average 19.5 points and 7.5 rebounds during the past five seasons. The Heat just got through playing Orland and has Boston up next. Those are the games they’ll be emphasizing not this matchup. The Wizards began the season 2-7. But that record is deceiving. If you toss out their game against the lowly Nets, the Wizards played teams with a combined winning percentage of .702, including seven playoff teams from last season. WASHINGTON 103-98.
Cleveland over *Charlotte by 7
The Cavaliers rolled past the punchless Bobcats, 90-79, at home in their fourth game of the season but failed to cover a 15-point spread. The Bobcats had lowest scoring average and field-goal percentage in the NBA, but have picked up offensive-minded Stephen Jackson. CLEVELAND 98-91.
***BEST BET
*Boston over Toronto by 18
Toronto has some interesting pieces on offense, but they are soft on the boards and their defense was a mess ranking among the bottom six. The Celtics don’t want to lose in this spot with a four-game road trip looming. The Raptors were 10-20 ATS when taking points through Nov. 21. It’s also the Raptors’ third game in four days. BOSTON 111-93.
*Oklahoma City over Milwaukee by 4
Brandon Jennings has been a revelation for Milwaukee. But the Bucks’ on-court chemistry could be disrupted by the return of Michael Redd. It’s also Milwaukee’s fourth road game in seven days. OKLAHOMA CITY 96-92.
*Indiana over Dallas by 2
The Pacers had won and covered five of their last seven entering the final week of this month. Dallas is playing for the third time in four nights and could be without Shawn Marion (check status) and Josh Howard (check status). INDIANA 107-105.
*Detroit over Los Angeles Clippers by 10
The Clippers are 8-22 ATS as a road ‘dog and had failed to cover in eight of their last 12 games through Nov. 22. DETROIT 104-94.
*Houston over San Antonio by 5
The Spurs have been a different team on the road, losing their first three away games by an average of 11 points. The Rockets have been surprisingly tough without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady thanks to unsung players such as Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry. HOUSTON 102-97.
***BEST BET
*Denver over New York by 25
New York is on the road for the third time in four nights. This is the Knicks’ fifth away trip in their last six games and they couldn’t be in a tougher venue than the Pepsi Center where the crowd is passionate and the air is thin. Both teams like to play up-tempo, but the Nuggets can keep the pressure on the entire game with quality backups, including lightening-quick point guard Ty Lawson. Going back to last Jan. 1, the Nuggets are 25-13 ATS as home chalk, including covering 11 of its last 15 home contests through Nov. 24. DENVER 123-98.
Phoenix over *Minnesota by 7
The Suns have too much offense and speed for a laboring Timberwolves squad still trying to pick up new coach Kurt Rambis’ complicated triangle offense and missing Kevin Love (check status). Only twice in their last 10 games have the Timberwolves broken the 90-point barrier through Nov. 22. PHOENIX 106-99.
*Portland over Memphis by 14
The Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games at the Rose Garden through Nov. 22. Brandon Roy and Andre Miller give Portland a huge backcourt edge. PORTLAND 108-94.
*Sacramento over New Jersey by 6
Brook Lopez has been the only New Jersey player to start every game this season. A rash of injuries has left the Nets suiting up just the league minimum eight players several times this season. The Nets hadn’t gone above 85 points during a six-game stretch through Nov. 20 and are playing their third road game in four nights. SACRAMENTO 92-86.
Saturday, November 28
*Washington over Charlotte by 7
Look for the Wizards to take a step forward as Gilbert Arenas shakes off two years of rust and gets more adjusted to the team’s new point guard-driven offense. With Antawn Jamison and Randy Foye healthy again, the Wizards are much better than their record. WASHINGTON 99-92.
***BEST BET
*Cleveland over Dallas by 18
It’s tough enough to play the Cavaliers on the road. It’s even far worse taking on the Cavaliers having played three days in the last four days like Dallas has, including two consecutive road matchups. The Cavaliers have the front-line depth to take advantage of Dallas’ lack of scoring in the paint. LeBron James gets especially motivated when he faces other superstars. So he’ll be psyched to get the better of Dirk Nowitzki. CLEVELAND 106-88.
Portland over *Utah by 2
Even though the Trail Blazers played last night, we would look to fade Utah if the Jazz are favored. The Trail Blazers are a rising power with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. The Jazz are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 home contests, 4-11 ATS as a home favorite through Nov. 23. PORTLAND 106-104.
Orlando over *Milwaukee by 2
Expect a competitive matchup. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy already has had to field eight different starting lineups because of injuries. There’s a drop at point guard for Orlando with injured Jameer Nelson being replaced by Jason Williams. He could be the league’s worst defender. ORLANDO 97-95.
Los Angeles Lakers over *Golden State by 7
The Lakers are back to full strength with the return of Pau Gasol. The Warriors haven’t been so lucky. Their rotation is down two players with forward Kelenna Azubuike out for the season with a knee injury and guard C.J. Watson out indefinitely after testing positive for the H1N1 virus. LA LAKERS 116-109
Sunday, November 29
Atlanta over *Detroit by 1
The Hawks have been playing too well to call for an outright Detroit victory, especially if Richard Hamilton (check status) still is out. But this is a dangerous spot for the Hawks. It’s their third game in four days and with an early start time it’s almost like playing a fourth game in a row. They also might be without point guard Mike Bibby (check status). ATLANTA 97-96.
*Toronto over Phoenix by 2
Toronto and Phoenix fell a whopping 31 points short of their over/under total when the Suns edged the Raptors, 101-100, at home two weeks ago. The Suns are the only team to score in triple-digits in every game heading into the third week of this month, while ranking No. 1 in scoring. The Raptors were fifth in points per game. TORONTO 115-113.
***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Clippers over Memphis by 14
It’s difficult to attach the word motivation to the Clippers. But Los Angeles should be up for this rematch after the Grizzlies rolled past them 106-91 in Memphis less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies are still getting past the brief but embarrassing Allen Iverson saga and are unsettled again at point guard with Jamaal Tinsley challenging incumbent Mike Conley. LA CLIPPERS 104-90.
***BEST BET
*New York over Orlando 4
Rarely will you find the name Knicks under a Best Bet title. Orlando, though, is vulnerable in this spot. It’s the Magic’s fourth game in five days. The Magic could let up having just faced Miami, Atlanta and improved Milwaukee, all of whom play tough defense. Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy knows his team is a work in progress this early in the season with newcomers Jason Williams, Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass all in the rotation and even on the court at the same time during various stages. NEW YORK 108-104.
Boston over *Miami by 5
After holding six of its first nine opponents to less than 90 points, the Heat’s defense has recently developed some chinks. Miami had allowed 100 points to Oklahoma City, 105 points to Atlanta and 120 Toronto during a three-game span entering the fourth week of November. Boston ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up less than 89 points per contest and with the defensive stoppers to make Dwayne Wade earn his points. BOSTON 94-89.
*San Antonio over Philadelphia by 6
The 76ers will be playing their fifth game in nine days, but the Spurs are tough to lay big points with if Manu Ginobili (check status), remain out. SAN ANTONIO 98-92.
Houston over *Oklahoma City by 5
The Thunder had a winning record after 11 games after starting 6-32 last season. Houston, though, already owns double-digit road victories against the Jazz and Lakers. HOUSTON 103-98.
*Denver over Minnesota by 16
Carmelo Anthony could practically outscore the punchless Timberwolves. Anthony was the only player to score at least 20 points in every one of his games going into the final week of this month. Since edging the Nets by two opening night, the Timberwolves have lost 12 in a row through Nov. 22. DENVER 106-90.
New Orleans over *Sacramento by 3
Darren Collison and Bobby Brown don’t exactly add up to Chris Paul (check status). But the Hornets are getting more comfortable and picking up the system of Jeff Bower, who replaced Byron Scott as coach nine games into the season. David West and Peja Stojakovic can still fill it up on the wings. NEW ORLEANS 103-100.
*Los Angeles Lakers over New Jersey by 20
This may be the biggest pointspread of the season. Pau Gasol makes the Lakers a better defensive club creating a Twin Towers presence with center Andrew Bynum. Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest are aggressive on the perimeter. The Nets are playing in their fourth road game in six days. LA LAKERS 102-82.
Monday, November 30
**PREFERRED
Chicago over *Milwaukee by 10
Go to the head of the class if you knew Joakim Noah was leading the NBA in rebounding. Milwaukee jumped out of the gates fast winning eight of its first 11 games. The Bucks are improved, but an easy schedule, lots of home games and Brandon Jennings catching the league by surprise also contributed heavily to Milwaukee’s early success. But now defenses are keying on the rookie Jennings and the Bucks lack an inside scoring option with center Andrew Bogut out. The Bucks lack talent and their chemistry has changed with Bogut out. CHICAGO 96-86.
*Dallas over Philadelphia by 11
Drew Gooden has done a nice job replacing Erick Dampier (check status) in the middle for Dallas, which continues to get stellar play from Dirk Nowitzki. Only twice in their last eight games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier entering the final week of this month. Already a weak rebounding team, the 76ers’ inside play took a hit when underrated Marreese Speights (13 points and 6.4 rebounds per game) suffered a partial tear of the MCL in his left knee. DALLAS 100-89.
*Utah over Memphis by 7
The Grizzlies should be settled down by now following Allen Iverson’s departure. However, that still doesn’t solve the Grizzlies’ backcourt deficiencies, which Deron Williams can exploit. Memphis does have plenty of scoring at the wings with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay along with swingman O.J. Mayo. UTAH 114-107.
*Golden State over Indiana by 5
Since the start of last season, Indiana is only 18-45 when giving up 100 or more points through November 21. Indiana has been idle since Friday but has been without Mike Dunleavy, Jeff Foster and backup point guard Travis Diener. GOLDEN ST. 118-113.
Tuesday, December 1
*Toronto over Washington by 7
Finally healthy, the Wizards are poised to make a move. They’ve been a fade on the road, though, going 8-22-2 ATS in their last 32 away matchups through Thanksgiving. TORONTO 115-108.
Boston over *Charlotte by 5
Charlotte may only score 75 points against the Celtics’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense, but Boston entered the fourth week of November mired in a 1-7 ATS slump. BOSTON 82-77.
Phoenix over *New York by 6
The Knicks further eroded their fan base deciding Allen Iverson is not the answer. Their short guards make New York especially vulnerable to Phoenix’s top-ranked offense. The Suns have to concentrate with a Wednesday look-ahead road matchup versus Cleveland on tap. PHOENIX 121-115.
**PREFERRED
*Denver over Golden State by 18
The short-handed Warriors are playing for the third time in four nights and this one is in high altitude. Carmelo Anthony, Nene and Chauncey Billups should coast against the Warriors, who ranked last in scoring defense and second-from-the-bottom in defensive field goal percentage. DENVER 126-108.
*Portland over Miami by 7
This begins a four-game West Coast trip for Miami. The Heat is trying to get healthy with Quentin Richardson (check status) and Udonis Haslem (check status) missing time entering Thanksgiving week. PORTLAND 99-92.
*Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans by 13
Unless Chris Paul is in action, the Lakers can name their score. The Lakers rolled past the Hornets, 104-88, at home on Nov. 8 as a 6 _-point favorite and that’s when the Hornets had Paul. The Hornets were 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games through Nov. 21. LA LAKERS 102-89.
Wednesday, December 2
*Orlando over New York by 14
It could be worse for the Knicks – they could be the Nets. Orlando had won 16 of its last 19 home games through Nov. 24. ORLANDO 108-94.
**PREFERRED
Milwaukee over *Washington over by 5
The Wizards were 2-9 ATS on the second of back-to-back games through Nov. 27. Rookie or not, Brandon Jennings was playing as well as any guard during the three weeks of the season. He could be even better when sharpshooter Michael Redd returns to the lineup. MILWAUKEE 107-102.
*Atlanta over Toronto by 6
The Raptors were 7-1 ATS in their last eight Eastern Conference games entering the fourth week of this month. ATLANTA 112-106.
**PREFERRED
*Cleveland over Phoenix by 15
Idle since Saturday, the Cavs draw Phoenix playing its third road game in four days. LeBron James could score 60 against such a weak defense. CLEVELAND 120-105.
Dallas over *New Jersey by 7
If the Nets haven’t won a game on their West Coast trip a loss here would set a record most defeats to open a season. DALLAS 96-89.
*Chicago over Detroit by 6
The Pistons were 5-11 ATS as a road ‘dog through Nov. 21. CHICAGO 99-93.
*Minnesota over Memphis by 5
It’s Memphis’ fifth road game in eight days. MINNESOTA 96-91.
*Oklahoma City over Philadelphia by 5
This marks the 76ers’ fifth road trip in their last six games. The 76ers began this span putting up less than 88 points per game during their past five contests. OKLAHOMA CITY 93-88.
Indiana over *Sacramento by 2
The Kings have started to fall back to Earth, while the Pacers were on a 6-1 road covering run through the third week of this month. INDIANA 108-106.
Houston over *Los Angeles Clippers by 6
Chris Kaman has been very solid for the Clippers so far, but Los Angeles misses Eric Gordon (check status). The Rockets had covered nine of their first 14 games. HOUSTON 105-99.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Thursday, November 26
OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Orlando, FL)
Creighton over Michigan by 2
Good defensive coach like Dana Altman of Creighton will take Manny Harris away from the Michigan offense and dare the rest of the team to beat the Blue Jays. Michigan ain’t the most physical Big Ten team and physical power-conference foes would be the type to give Creighton the most trouble. CREIGHTON, 68-66.
***BEST BET
Xavier over Marquette by 18
Current Marquette head coach Buzz Williams figures to call ex-Marquette head coach Tom Crean at Indiana and ask him, “Why did you have to let Xavier’s Jordan Crawford transfer out of IU?” Good offensive system and players would seem to have a decent chance to expose Marquette’s questionable ’09 defense. XAVIER, 82-64.
Baylor over Alabama by 4
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Florida State vs. Iona
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76 CLASSIC (Anaheim, CA)
West Virginia over Long Beach State by 16
Clemson over Texas A&M by 6
**PREFERRED
Minnesota over Butler by 4
Be careful about laying points with Butler against a power-conference foe that can play defense and rebound. Minnesota’s Lawrence Westbrook was the typical “leading scorer out sick” for the Gophers in some recent home cupcake action, which college basketball coaches love to employ to help spread minutes around to guys who won’t be playing against real opponents, which hurts the real opponents’ ability to scout them properly. MINNESOTA, 52-48.
UCLA over Portland by 9
Oklahoma over Houston by 11 (at Anchorage, AK)
Jeff Capel gave his ex-team a gift by showing up unprepared at VCU, where they play defense. There is no D in Houston. OKLAHOMA, 80-69.
Friday, November 27
**PREFERRED
South Florida* over Florida Atlantic by 25
FAU was on the road from November 16 thru November 23, all against lesser opposition. Now they move up in class to face a Big East foe. Early on, they are shooting 40% from the field after shooting 41% from the field last season. South Florida has a 20-win goal this season and will get there by opening their mouths while swimming along the bottom. SOUTH FLORIDA, 79-54.
Syracuse* over Columbia by 24
VCU* over Nevada by 5
New Mexico over Hawaii* by 8
Hawaii has already surrendered 80+ twice in its home building to Northern Colorado and BYU. Bad things come in threes, which is what New Mexico will be firing from the opening tip. NEW MEXICO, 84-76.
Cornell over Toledo by 19 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Virginia Tech over Temple by 6
Rutgers over Massachusetts by 5 (at Atlantic City, NJ)
Florida over Michigan State by 8 (at Atlantic City, NJ)
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL (Chicago, IL)
Iowa State over Saint Louis by 10
Can Iowa State really score the ball this season and continue to get offensive balance? They are a lot more experienced than the Saint Louis team that Majerus manages to make younger and younger as his tenure gets longer and longer.
Notre Dame over Northwestern by 15
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL (S.P.I, TX)
Mississippi State over Richmond by 6
Gotta love that a Miss State forward told the media that his father said MSU head coach Rick Stansbury was “outcoached” in a loss vs. Rider of the MAAC. Richmond had zippy-paced Longwood College before this, a good prep. The Stansbury crew scheduled turtle-tempo Texas-Pan American and Richmond is no longer a slowdown team. But they haven’t been up-tempo long enough. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 75-69.
Missouri* over Old Dominion by 23
ODU can play up-tempo in their own conference, or drag it down to their own preferred pace, but they can’t take Missouri’s tempo from them and they won’t be able to hang with them for 40 minutes at Missouri’s pace. MISSOURI, 84-61.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Oklahoma State over Bradley by 11
Utah over Illinois by 1
Houston over San Diego by 8 (at Anchorage, AK)
Too much offense for Houston, not enough offense or depth for the beach crew playing in the Arctic. HOUSTON, 85-77.
Saturday, November 28
Purdue* over Central Michigan by 22
Ball State* over Cal Davis by 7
Wichita State over Cleveland State* by 1
CSU has revenge for a Bracket Buster loss at Wichita State last season, but they are not good at playing Wichita State’s halfcourt game and they can’t shoot straight enough to win playing their own game. WICHITA STATE, 69-68.
George Washington* over Oregon State by 2
DePaul* over Detroit by 9
Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Bowling Green by 10
Northeastern* over Wright State by 3
Dayton* over Towson by 19
Miami-OH* over Evansville by 18
Tulane* over George Mason by 1
Villanova* over Lasalle by 1
The intra-city visitors will test Villanova inside with good defensive length and the ability to rebound their own misses. VILLANOVA, 71-70.
Pacific over San Jose State* by 3
***BEST BET
UNLV* over Louisville by 12
Pitino is playing a lot of zone defense because he doesn’t trust this group in man-to-man. That means that Louisville isn’t playing UNLV, some ordinary team that can’t rebound as strongly out of the zone is playing UNLV, which helps to minimize the Rebs’ board weakness they often overcome anyway. If Louisville goes man, they’ll mess up their defensive assignments. Lon Kruger will be happy either way. UNLV, 86-74.
Fresno State* over Santa Clara by 16
Wake Forest* over William & Mary by 22
Marshall* over Ohio by 4
Pittsburgh* over Youngstown State by 18
Boston College over Providence* by 4
Providence had their shot at Alabama and blew it in an overtime session it shouldn’t have come to. Wouldn’t trust the shooting skills of too many new players – and some of the old ones -- against an ACC foe that got some key players back from recent suspension. BOSTON COLLEGE, 78-74.
Southern Illinois* over Illinois-Chicago by 10
Arkansas-LR* over Cal Poly-SLO by 18
Northern Iowa* over Northern Illinois by 21
Tulsa over Missouri State* by 4
Road team can usually play decent defense without pressuring the ball, which helps to keep it out of foul trouble and safer from a Missouri Valley hose job than other types of teams would be. TULSA, 71-67.
TCU* over Louisiana Tech by 3
Boise State* over North Texas by 9
Cal-Santa Barbara over Loyola Marymount by
Virginia Tech over Delaware by 17 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Temple* over St. John’s by 6 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Drexel* over Toledo by 11
Troy over Valparaiso by 4 (at Statesboro, GA)
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Sunday, November 29
Arkansas* over South Alabama by 10
North Carolina State* over New Orleans by 20
California* over Princeton by 17
Arkansas State* over Indiana State by 8
Colorado State* over San Francisco by 9
Texas over Rice* by 15
USC* over Nebraska by 8
Wyoming* over Pepperdine by 15
North Carolina* over Nevada by 17
**PREFERRED
Cornell over Drexel* by 6
Until Drexel displays the ability to put the ball in the net, any opponent that can shoot well seems like a reasonable bet to beat the Dragons vs. the number. A 34% field goal percentage to start the season will improve, but by how much? CORNELL, 68-62.
Illinois State* over St. Bonaventure by 10
Monday, November 30
**PREFERRED
Penn State over Virginia* by 6
Nittany sub-par efforts in recent tournament help build some value on them and Ed DeChellis’ floor-spreading system against first-season transitioning of Virginia players to Tony Bennett’s new systems. They’ve got to be there on the catch when Penn State drives and kicks it out. PENN STATE, 68-62.
Bowling Green* over Florida International by 22
BG’s Louis Orr got a 2-year extension in October, then his team allowed 100 points earlier in November. Not a good thing following the university’s show of good faith. Therefore, he will demand 100 points from his players against Isiah Thomas’ bad opponent in the friendly confines. BOWLING GREEN, 91-69.
San Jose State* over St. Mary’s by 1
The home Spartans are a lot healthier now than they were at the end of last season and last season’s productive new players have had time to jell. If they’re ever going to get a real win, now would be the time. SAN JOSE STATE, 73-72.
Tuesday, December 1
Temple over Western Michigan* by 2
The rims will get a workout. WMU needs to make it physical and get Lavoy Allen outta there for Temple. TEMPLE, 56-54.
Northeastern* over Providence by 8
The home team’s half-court grind is the last thing that this particular Providence team wants to see. Watching Providence try to score in the half-court figures to be an agonizing task for everyone except Northeastern backers. NORTHEASTERN, 71-63.
Wake Forest over Purdue* by 5
Purdue wasn’t going to miss point guard Lewis Jackson against anyone on their schedule until this particular points. WAKE FOREST, 84-79.
North Carolina State* over Northwestern by 16
If Wolfpack head coach Sidney Lowe finds a way to keep it close vs. an already injured Northwestern team, they might want to find a loophole in that contract. NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 65-49.
Maryland* over Indiana by 2
Maryland will find a way to be pushed around and stay close to an inferior team on the road. MARYLAND, 66-64.
LSU* over UL-Lafayette by 19
Colorado* over San Francisco by 14
UTEP over New Mexico State* by 5
Michigan State over North Carolina by 10
Paybacks can go down very hard. Double-paybacks go down harder. MICHIGAN STATE, 79-69.
Iowa* over Virginia Tech by 2
Fresno State* over Pacific by 9
Cal-Santa Barbara* over Santa Clara by 14
Wednesday, December 2
Dayton over Miami-OH* by 1
Miami will have hot and cold shooting nights. The cold ones figure to come against decent defensive foes. Like Dayton. DAYTON, 64-63.
Pittsburgh over Duquesne* by 6
Duquesne’s Damian Saunders was the nation’s leading rebounder early on, but you get a lot of second chances when your team plays at a quick pace and misses lots of shots and plays poor-shooting opponents. PITTSBURGH, 75-69.
Villanova* over Drexel by 16
Confident shooters on ‘Nova vs. bricklayers on Drexel. VILLANOVA, 71-55.
George Washington* over George Mason by 5
Richmond* over Old Dominion by 5
Saint Louis over Georgia* by 1
Butler over Ball State* by 11
South Carolina* over Western Kentucky by 10
Clemson* over Illinois by 2
Miami-FL* over Minnesota by 8
VCU* over Rhode Island by 4
Michigan* over Boston College by 8
Tulsa* over Oklahoma State by 1
Be wary of Tulsa going up in class and expected to win. They don’t have the firepower to stay in it if Oklahoma State is hot from outside. TULSA, 76-75.
Charlotte* over East Carolina by 6
UAB* over Middle Tennessee by 7
Tulane* over New Orleans by 7
Oklahoma* over Arkansas by 9
Louisiana Tech over UL-Monroe* by 2
Rice over Harvard* by 1
Iowa State* over Northern Iowa by 8
Northern Iowa shot 6-of-32 from 3-point range in last season’s overtime loss. Their 7-footer Egsleder can’t play a full game against Iowa State’s big man Brackins. IOWA STATE, 79-71.
Mississippi over Arkansas State* by 2
ASU will try to make a grind out of it and win with defense and rebounding, but coach Brady left the SEC as Ol’ Miss’ Andy Kennedy was getting there and doesn’t know as much as he thinks he might know about the Rebs. MISSISSIPPI, 68-66.
Bradley over Northern Illinois* by 8
Arkansas-LR* over Missouri State by 2
SMU* over TCU by 1
Utah State* over BYU by 4
Arizona* over UNLV by 5
Gonzaga* over Washington State by 6
New Mexico* over California by 1
Wisconsin* over Duke by 7
Badgers say, ‘Yes, you’re new motion offense looks nice against teams that don’t play defense, but we’ve been running that stuff for a while and defending it in practice so screw you, Dukies. WISCONSIN, 68-61.
Vanderbilt* over Missouri by 11
On the road, Missouri’s chances against a well-balanced team that takes care of the ball decrease substantially. VANDERBILT, 82-71.
Florida State* over Ohio State by 11
That close game by the Buckeyes against North Carolina isn’t looking so good right now. FLORIDA STATE, 80-69.
San Diego* over San Diego State by 4
Cal-Irvine* over Hawaii by 4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
****BEST BET
NORTH CAROLINA over N. C. STATE* by 27
North Carolina has already matched last year’s win count, and has earned a bowl bid for the second straight season, which should be considered a major success for Butch Davis in just three years of running the program. But no matter what happens at bowl time, the only way this season can be measured a success for him is if his Tar Heels do not just win here, but win in style. He has taken a frustrating 0-2 collar vs. the program’s biggest football rival, including that 41-10 embarrassment in front of the home fans last year. That has haunted the Tar Heel players and coaches for a full year, and now they bring the proper focus, and confidence (a 4-0 run that includes road wins at Virginia Tech and Boston College brings plenty of the latter), to get their revenge in style. The key to the Carolina turnaround has been recruiting for speed and developing playmakers on defense, and that is what sets the tone this week – they have already come up with 28 takeaways this season, returning six of them directly for scores, and that spells bad news for Russell Wilson, who has thrown at least one interception in every A.C.C. game, after having just one in all of his freshman season. Part of that stems from Wilson having to force action because the Wolfpack defense has been so inept, and that does not change here as those defenders wear down. Also no real home field advantage when these two meet in Raleigh, with plenty of seats available for folks wearing powder blue. NORTH CAROLINA 40-13.
****BEST BET
MISSOURI over KANSAS by 21 (at Kansas City)
These are dark times for Mark Mangino, with a season that has spiraled out of control now potentially becoming a program spiraling out of control as well. It appears almost inevitable that he will be dismissed from his duties in Lawrence, perhaps even before this game kicks off, and we believe that regardless of when that announcement takes place this one gets ugly. The last thing a battered, beaten and distracted Jayhawk teams needs right now is to face an arch rival that comes in much fresher, and with a chip on their shoulder. In going 0-6 down the stretch the Kansas confidence has obviously been lost, but just as important this week is that the Jayhawks have had to face bowl opponents in four of their last five games (the other being a tough grudge match loss to Kansas State), and the last two weeks they went up against Nebraska and Texas, the two most physical teams in the Big 12. That leaves precious little for the fuel gauge to read. Meanwhile the Missouri schedule down the stretch has been the opposite, with the last four being Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State, and that has not only led to some favorable scoreboards, but it also leaves the bodies much fresher. Of particular note is Blake Gabbert’s ankle now at 100 percent, and a Tiger offense that has thrown for 1,103 yards in the last three games can overwhelm a slow Kansas secondary. Without a ground game to slow things down and keep that defense off the field, the pace gets completely away from the Jayhawks. MISSOURI 42-21.
**PREFERRED
Buffalo over Kent State* by 10 (Friday)
In going from 8-6, a M.A.C. Championship, and a Bowl game, to the current 4-7, most pundits talk about how far Buffalo has fallen this season. The funny thing is that has not been the case. The offense has actually improved from 370 yards per game to 413, while the defense has gone from allowing 408 to just 359. The big difference has been in the bounces – the Bulls were extraordinarily fortunate in going +19 in turnovers last year, and are -4 in that category this time around. But the bottom line is that snap for snap they have been a better team, and showed in last week’s rout of Miami O. that there is plenty left in the tank. Now in only their second game in 17 days they bring that same physical energy, and motivation comes easy as they remember last year’s 24-21 home loss to this opponent. And the Golden Flashes have a short practice week, right after the defense allowed Temple to run for 275 yards at 7.2 per carry despite Bernard Pierce touching the ball only one time. BUFFALO 31-21.
Tulsa* over Memphis by 27 (Friday)
After four straight bowl appearances, and back-to-back campaigns of double-figure wins in Todd Graham’s first two seasons, it has been a disappointing autumn for the Golden Hurricanes. But those past successes means that this is a roster filled with pride, and those players get a chance to have one of those cathartic blowouts that can vent some of those frustrations. And they get the ideal opponent for those purposes. Any feelings that the Memphis players had for Tommy West were supposed to have shown the last two weeks, and note that as bad as the Tigers looked on the scoreboard they were much worse – they trailed U.A.B. 31-7 after three quarters at home of that misleading 31-21 final, and last week Houston mercifully backed off when it was 55-14 in the third quarter, not scoring in the final stanza as Case Keenum stayed on the sidelines. Both of those teams had some reason to hold back but Tulsa does not, and as the score builds the resistance from the underdog dwindles completely. TULSA 40-13.
Wake Forest over Duke* by 14
The career of Riley Skinner and a good core group of seniors is not going out the way that the Demon Deacons had expected – after three straight winning seasons and bowl appearances it has been a major disappointment. But now that makes this their bowl game, and with two full weeks to prepare, we can expect Jim Grobe and a program that has a lot of pride to bring their “A” game. It does not take much more than that to win easily this week, with no real home field advantage to overcome, and the Blue Devils simply out of gas. Duke has been out-scored 58-6 in the second half in three November games, including 38-0 in the fourth quarter, and at this stage there simply is no way to re-energize tired bodies. A ground game that has not reached 100 yards vs. a line opponent does not produce enough yards to buy Thaddeus Lewis time in the pocket, or eat enough clock to keep their own defense off the field, and this week Skinner goes out in style vs. those fading defenders. WAKE FOREST 34-20.
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma* by 4
We fully expect Zac Robinson to be back at QB for the Cowboys in this one, but even if he does not go the line will be adjusted enough for his absence to keep us in play. The bottom line is that the Cowboys are the flat out better team right now, with the far superior running game, and for once a defense that can stand toe-to-toe with their neighbors from Norman. We have seen a transformation take place in Stillwater this fall, with State going from being a finesse team that got pushed around vs. the better teams they faced to a much more physical side, and in three November wins they have rushed for 806 yards. Meanwhile they have held six straight opponents to less than 100 yards overland, and note that even in that failure vs. Texas they held the Longhorns to 17 first downs and 275 yards. Now they can control matters vs. that patchwork Sooner OL that never did develop this season, and that makes it tough for Bob Stoops & Co. to win outright, much less get a margin. OKLAHOMA STATE 24-20.
*CLOSE CALLS
Western Michigan* over Ball State by 9 (Tuesday)
Cardinals bring a rare late-season quality for a bad team, having out-rushed each of their last four opponents. That eats enough clock here to limit Tim Hiller’s chances for big numbers in his final outing. WESTERN MICHIGAN 33-24.
Texas over Texas A&M* by 22 (Thursday)
As noted in our Saturday forecast, the Aggies have been as erratic as any team in the land this fall, and a short practice week can often mean even more randomness. TEXAS 38-16.
Pittsburgh over West Virginia* by 3 (Friday)
The stakes are high and both teams are fresh off of byes for the Backyard Brawl, and the Panther edge in offensive consistency decides it. PITTSBURGH 23-20.
Rutgers over Louisville* by 7 (Friday)
Rutgers should be the much fresher side, playing for only the third time in 27 November days, but we tried to use that logic at Syracuse last week and got scorched. A week too early, or just plain wrong? RUTGERS 27-20.
Akron* over Eastern Michigan by 14 (Friday)
The last time they played before the home fans the Zips saw Temple close the game on a 49-0 run. A chance for redemption. AKRON 35-21.
Wyoming over Colorado State* by 3 (Friday)
Although the Cowboy offense has been completely inept against the better teams on the schedule, they are 3-0 SU and ATS against the lower echelon of the Mountain West. The Rams are a member of that club. WYOMING 27-24.
Temple over Ohio* by 1 (Friday)
We will need to know more about the status of Bernard Pierce before making a bigger call here, but that Ohio rabbits foot (nine special teams or defensive TD’s) has to wear out sometime, doesn’t it? TEMPLE 23-22.
Alabama over Auburn* by 10 (Friday)
Having had both a walkover vs. Furman and a bye in November brings Auburn in as fresh as the 12th game allows, and can the Crimson Tide help but be caught looking ahead to Florida a bit, even in this rivalry. ALABAMA 26-16.
Cincinnati* over Illinois by 15 (Friday)
The Bearcats have only gone 1-3 ATS as home chalk this season, with the defense allowing 444 yards vs. Fresno, 462 vs. Connecticut, and 390 vs. West Virginia in the ATS failures. If Illinois brings some life, there are some open doors. CINCINNATI 37-22.
Nebraska over Colorado* by 8 (Friday)
A potential flat spot for Nebraska with the Big 12 title spot clinched, and the Cornhuskers do not bring much offense. But Colorado has allowed five TD’s when the offense or special teams were on your field, so if you back the dog hold your breath. NEBRASKA 24-16.
Bowling Green* over Toledo by 10 (Friday)
Dave Clawson and Tim Beckman go head-to-head for the first time in this short bus-ride of a rivalry, and a Falcon offense that only has 13 turnovers will stay on the field for long stretches vs. a defense that has not made many plays. BLOWING GREEN 38-28.
Central Michigan* over Northern Illinois by 9 (Friday)
Some of the fire went out of this one when Northern Illinois fell out of the M.A.C. race on Saturday, but even with a spot in the league title game clinched, the last home game for Dan LeFevour still brings some special emotion for the Chippewas. C.M.U. 31-22.
Boise State* over Nevada by 12 (Friday)
It is the brilliance of the Wolfpack ground game vs. the overall excellence of the Broncos for all of he W.A.C. marbles, and while Chris Ault is only 5-12 ATS as a road underdog since his return to the sidelines, one of those successes was that 69-68 loss in four O.T.’s here two years ago, the best regular season game this conference has ever produced. BOISE STATE 40-28.
Virginia Tech over Virginia* by 18
Almost assuredly the last go-round for Al Groh, and Frank Beamer has the kind of class to go easy with a big lead. Which he will have. VIRGINIA TECH 31-13.
Connecticut* over Syracuse by 12
Kudos to Doug Marrone for having his depleted roster control Rutgers wire-to-wire last week. And the same effort has them in the hunt for a while against what could be a drained group of Huskies. CONNECTICUT 29-17.
Clemson over South Carolina* by 2
Clemson had to work longer and harder than Dabo Swinney would have liked vs. Virginia to clinch that spot in the A.C.C. title tilt, and that could show against a Gamecock squad that was able to take the week off. CLEMSON 26-24.
Kentucky* over Tennessee by 2
The Volunteers should have gotten better on defense down the stretch, as they learn those Monte Kiffin schemes, right? What has happened instead escapes us. KENTUCKY 24-22.
Mississippi over Mississippi State* by 10
Now that Houston Nutt has no more fears of Dexter McCluster wearing down, he can cut him loose in this one, which gives the Rebels outstanding balance. The Bulldogs are strictly Anthony Dixon, with the passing game failing to develop. MISSISSIPPI 27-17.
T.C.U.* over New Mexico by 45
Mike Locksley has been able to accomplish just enough down the stretch for this to not be a lost season for the Lobos, but there is no possible way for it to end well here. T.C.U. 48-3.
East Carolina* over Southern Miss by 3
East Carolina can prevent a muddled tie-breaker in the Eastern Division of Conference USA by winning here. Southern can create the mess by done the same. And it really does look that close. EAST CAROLINA 27-24.
Central Florida over U.A.B.* by 5
For as special as Joe Webb has been this season, a one-man gang is not going to beat this stout Golden Knight defense, which has allowed 129 rushing yards in four November games. And that includes facing Texas and Houston. U.C.F. 27-22.
U.T.E.P.* over Marshall by 3
Be on the alert for mid-week news announcements that could have either Mark Snyder or Mike Price taking the field as lame ducks. U.T.E.P. 30-27.
S.M.U.* over Tulane by 21
The Mustangs take the field still alive for the Conference USA title game. The Green Wave play the third straight road game, and showed no particular interesting in competing at Central Florida last week. S.M.U. 35-14.
Texas Tech over Baylor by 21 (at Arlington)
The Baylor bye week came all the way back on September 12th, when they still had Robert Griffin in the fold. The tank is empty. TEXAS TECH 37-16.
Florida* over Florida State by 28
E. J. Manual could be in way over his head on the road vs. this class of defense, and with only a walk-on behind him there are no other options if things go badly. Which they will. FLORIDA 37-9.
Georgia Tech* over Georgia by 12
The Georgia defense struggled to make tackles in the first look at Paul Johnson’s schemes, allowing 45 points and 409 rushing yards on their own turf last year. And tackling has certainly not been a strong suit for the Bulldogs this season. GEORGIA TECH 35-23.
Brigham Young* over Utah by 11
The Cougars bring a major edge in experience and QB, and also long and bitter memories from last year’s 48-24 road defeat, when an 0-6 turnover differential was the dominant factor in the scoreboard result. B.Y.U. 30-19.
Houston* over Rice by 28
The Owls have shown some resiliency since their bye week to open November, but that was also getting a schedule role of the dice through the bottom of the conference. But it is snake eyes this week. HOUSTON 45-17.
Idaho* over Utah State by 6
With two full weeks to prepare, expect a supreme effort from an Idaho team that probably does get a bowl invite if an 8-4 can be posted. But remember what pressure can do to teams that are not accustomed to it. IDAHO 33-27.
Washington* over Washington State by 29
The Cougars close with their seventh game in as many weeks. The Huskies come in fresh, and have no reason to hold back, which most State opponents have chosen to do again this season. WASHINGTON 45-16.
Arizona State* over Arizona by 1
The kind of draining defeat that the Wildcats suffered deep into the night on Saturday now sets them up for one of those natural upset settings in which a rival can turn around a bad season with a single “W”. A.S.U. 24-23.
Boston College over Maryland* by 7
The Eagles have been too mistake-prone (multiple turnovers in six different games) to get any kind of margin on the road, even with the expected command of the trenches. BOSTON COLLEGE 26-19.
Miami F. over South Florida* by 7
The Bulls were able to rush for over 400 yards in their last two home games, getting a pair of double-figure wins, but this defensive front does bring a higher level of challenge. Not sure they can do it vs. this class. MIAMI F. 27-20.
L.S.U.* over Arkansas by 8
Arkansas has allowed five TD’s of 50 yards or more in three S.E.C. road games, and Ryan Mallett faces a pass rush that will test his limited mobility. Tiger revenge, to boot. L.S.U. 28-20.
San Jose State* over New Mexico State by 13
We will likely not lay the points, but there would be nothing wrong with sitting back and rooting for Dick Tomey to win his LHG on Saturday night. SAN JOSE STATE 30-17.
Stanford* over Notre Dame by 11
It is not so much a matter of Notre Dame possibly losing heart, but the fact that even on their best days the interior defense would not be a match for Toby Gerhart on the road. STANFORD 35-24.
San Diego State over U.N.L.V.* by 1
We have always felt that a late bye week for a team with a lame duck coach is much more of a hindrance than a helper when they take the field again. The Rebels fit that bill. SAN DIEGO STATE 28-27.
Southern Cal* over U.C.L.A. by 16
The Trojans have not had to go through this kind of soul searching since before Pete Carroll came on board. But not the spot for us to step in, because they really have looked that bad. SOUTHERN CAL 29-13.
Navy over Hawaii* by 11
The Midshipmen should have some excellent fan support on the islands, and that relentless ground game can wear down a depth-shy Warrior defensive interior. NAVY 34-23.
Florida Atlantic* over Western Kentucky by 18
Could the Hilltoppers be saving their best effort to get David Elson a win in his swan song next week? F.A.U. 37-19.
Middle Tennessee State over UL-Monroe* by 7
A 5-0 SU and ATS run down the stretch sees the Blue Raiders clicking on all cylinders, and with bowl scouts watching now the momentum continues in this one. M.T.S. 31-24.
Arkansas State* over North Texas by 10
The youth movement by Steve Roberts in recent weeks has not helped matters for the floundering Red Wolves, so does he go back to some of the seniors in their LHG? ARKANSAS STATE 34-24.
Troy over UL-Lafayette* by 12
The chance to finish with a perfect Sun Belt record keeps the Trojans on track to the final whistle. TROY 35-23.
NFL
****BEST BET
*St. Louis over Seattle by 17
The Seahawks ruined Steve Spagnuolo’s head coaching debut, blanking the Rams, 28-0, opening week in Seattle. Since then the Seahawks have lost seven of nine games. Their only victories during this span were at home against Jacksonville and Detroit. Those were their only two pointspread covers, too. The Rams have covered their last three games. No, we’re not even hinting the Rams are a respectable team. They most certainly are not. However, we are saying the Rams are still playing hard for Spagnuolo. They have the best player on the field, Steven Jackson and that the Seahawks are very bad, too. Seattle has dropped 19 of its last 26 games. The Seahawks also happen to be in a far worse situational spot. This is St. Louis’ third straight home game. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in a row. Being away on Thanksgiving week is especially tough. Seattle hasn’t been competitive as a visitor. The Seahawks have lost 13 of their past 15 away matchups. This season has been particularly brutal for Seattle away from Qwest Field. The Seahawks have played five road contests – losing and failing to cover each time. They’ve lost these five games by a combined 88 points, an average losing margin of 17.6 points. Their closest road game was losing to Arizona by 11 points. Out of the playoff picture, Jim Mora Jr. is going to start playing younger players. Already the Seahawks are going with Justin Forsett as their main ball-carrier with Julius Jones injured and Edgerrin James waived. The Seahawks have multiple offensive line injuries. The Seahawks have injuries at linebacker and in their defensive backfield. Jackson gives the Rams a rushing/receiving threat the Seahawks don’t have. He’s averaging 132 yards rushing in his last four games. ST. LOUIS 30-13.
***BEST BET
Pittsburgh over *Baltimore by 16
We’re aware Ben Roethlisberger may have suffered a possible concussion during Pittsburgh’s overtime last week at Kansas City and may not play. We’re fine with getting extra points because of that and Charlie Batch, one of the better backups, behind center. We’re certainly fine if Roethlisberger, having his finest statistical season, plays. The Ravens’ pass rush loses a lot without injured Terrell Suggs. Their secondary is vulnerable no matter who the quarterback is, especially against Pittsburgh’s multi-dimensional attack. Ageless Hines Ward remains a top possession receiver to go with speedsters Santonio Holmes, Mike Williams and underrated, reliable tight end Heath Miller. But what makes the Steelers intriguing is their ground game has improved tremendously with the switch to Rashard Mendenhall from Willie Parker. Mendenhall has averaged more than five yards per carry in four of his last seven games. Ray Rice is an excellent all-purpose back for Baltimore. Pittsburgh, though, has held all but one of its foes to under 100 yards rushing. Only two opponents have averaged more than four yards per rush against the Steelers. That means Joe Flacco needs a big game. Flacco looked much improved from his rookie season early this season. He’s tallied off since then throwing for more than 200 yards once since Week 6. Flacco has thrown only one touchdown pass in his last four games. His wide receivers don’t offer much. The best is Derrick Mason, a serviceable veteran past his prime. The Steelers play the Ravens with a great deal of confidence after sweeping all three meetings last season, including 23-14 in the playoffs. The Steelers are generally at their clutch best in AFC North Division action having won 13 of their last 16 division matchups. PITTSBURGH 26-10.
**PREFERRED
Miami over *Buffalo by 11
Dick Jauron had to go. But let’s face it, the Bills can’t win unless a team hands them a game. The Dolphins are a smart, ground-oriented club that can hammer Buffalo into submission. It doesn’t matter that Ronnie Brown is out. Ricky Williams has discovered the fountain of youth. Miami has outscored Buffalo, 79-29, during the past three meetings, including a 38-10 waltz in Week 4. The Bills have lost eight of their last nine home contests. Don’t look for that trend to reverse in Perry Fewell’s first home game as head coach. The Bills also have lost eight of their past nine AFC East games. Buffalo usually provides an effort, but scheme and talent are woefully lacking. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not an NFL-starting caliber quarterback. He lacks touch and locks into Terrell Owens, a player the Dolphins are not going to let beat them. The Bills’ already-limited offense may also be without running back Marshawn Lynch (check status). Only once in their last eight games have the Bills had more than 300 yards of offense. That came last week against Jacksonville thanks to a 98-yard hook up between Fitzpatrick and Owens against a backup Jacksonville cornerback. Miami has rebounded to win four of its last six. They’ve had 10 full days to rest and to prepare. MIAMI 24-13.
*San Francisco over Jacksonville by 12
San Francisco has a better blueprint, coaching and morale than Jacksonville. The 49ers can run with Frank Gore, stop the run having allowed an NFL-best 3.3 yards per rush through Week 11, enjoy top-notch special teams and finally have receiving weapons with Vernon Davis and good-looking rookie Michael Crabtree. The key for the 49ers is getting something out of quarterback Alex Smith. Look for Smith to have success against a below-average Jacksonville secondary that again could be missing its best cornerback, Rashean Mathis. The Jaguars also could be missing linebacker Justin Durant. A big reason why Jacksonville is vulnerable through the air is because its pass rush is so weak. The 49ers have been able to withstand an injury to left tackle Joe Staley, their best offensive lineman. Maurice Jones-Drew has 718 totals yard and eight touchdowns in his last five games. He’s a top-10 runner. The Jaguars don’t offer much else on offense. Quarterback David Garrard has just two touchdowns on the road. This is a tough cross-country trip for the Jaguars. The 49ers play hard every week for Mike Singletary. The same can’t be said for the Jaguars. They have not demonstrated that kind of chemistry with their coach, Jack Del Rio. SAN FRANCISCO 28-16.
*CLOSE CALLS
Green Bay over *Detroit by 12 (Thursday)
The Pilgrims may never have wanted to land in American if they had to watch the Lions play on Thanksgiving. This figures to be another ugly Lions performance. Detroit’s last ranked pass defense is no match for Aaron Rodgers and his flock of big-play receiving targets. The Packers have beaten the Lions eight straight times, including blanking them 26-0 in Week 6. It doesn’t matter that Green Bay has allowed 43 sacks and will be without defensive stalwarts Aaron Kampman and Al Harris. The Packers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games and have too much offense for Detroit, especially if Matthew Stafford (check status) is unable to go. GREEN BAY 35-23.
*Dallas over Oakland by 17 (Thursday)
Tony Romo performs best on holidays, where he’s 3-0 with 10 touchdown passes and 832 yards, and he’s 14-1 in his November starts. Marion Barber and Felix Jones can take advantage of an Oakland defense that has surrendered a league-high 16 touchdowns on the ground. Keep in mind, though, the Cowboys are in offensive slump having put up just seven points during each of the last two weeks. Bruce Gradowski doubled the Raiders’ touchdown passes on the season throwing two this past Sunday. Before getting too excited, Gradowski is a journeyman with around a 60 passer rating and an 11-to-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio in four seasons. DALLAS 29-12.
New York Giants over *Denver by 7 (Thursday)
The combination of Kyle Orton’s bad ankle and a run defense that’s developed a huge run leak makes the Broncos less than a stellar home dog. The Giants had to beat Atlanta in OT last week to avoid losing for a fifth straight time. As it is, New York has failed to cover in its last five contests. But the Giants have the power ground game to gash a worn down Denver rush defense that is giving up 168 yards per contest during their last five games. The Broncos surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground to San Diego last Sunday at home. The Chargers entered the matchup ranked last in rushing averaging 3.2 yards per carry. NY GIANTS 24-17.
Indianapolis over *Houston by 4
Sooner or later, the Colts’ 19-game regular-season winning streak is coming to a halt. Indianapolis has won its last four games by a combined 10 points. One of these victories occurred three weeks ago versus the Texans, 20-17, when Houston kicker Kris Brown missed a 42-yard field goal as time expired. The Colts have never lost to the Texans in 15 meetings. This is Houston’s finest team, though, and the Texans have covered eight of those 15 games. Houston entered its Monday night game against the Titans on an 11-4-1 covering run. The over has cashed eight of the last nine times in the series. INDIANAPOLIS 34-30.
*Cincinnati over Cleveland by 17
Have the Browns suddenly turned a corner offensively with Brady Quinn after scoring four touchdowns against the Lions this past Sunday? We’d put far more credence into that question if the surprising scoring outburst didn’t occur on carpet against the Lions. Before that game, Cleveland had scored five touchdowns on offense in their previous 15 games. The Browns are the worst team in football, losers of 15 of their last 16. The problem with the other side is Cincinnati’s record as chalk. The Bengals are 1-7 ATS as favorites and 5-12 ATS when meeting a team with a losing record. The Browns took the Bengals to overtime in the first meeting, out-gaining them, 395-375. CINCINNATI 27-10.
*Minnesota over Chicago by 9
Forget Comeback of the Year. Brett Favre is a legitimate MVP candidate. Favre has transformed the inconsistent Vikings into a serious Super Bowl threat with an amazing 21-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while pumping up his teammates to reach great heights. The Vikings have won 14 of their last 16 games, including their last five at home. Taking their cue from erratic Jay Cutler, the Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. Cutler has a 7-to-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from Solider Field. He’s had road quarterback ratings of 33.6, 43.2, 64.1 and 79.6. Minnesota has defeated Chicago six of the last seven times in the Metrodome, covering five of the matchups. MINNESOTA 29-20.
*Philadelphia over Washington by 14
The Redskins have revenge for a 27-17 Week 7 loss. Their defense is good enough to keep them in games. Philadelphia is not likely to have Brian Westbrook. If you want to back the underdog, however, this is what you’re up against: The Redskins very well could be down to their third-string tailback, third-string right guard, while also missing tight end Chris Cooley and possibly dominant defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Washington is 4-11-3 ATS in its last 18 games. Big changes obviously are coming in D.C. It’s just too bad for Redskins fans that one of those changes isn’t a new owner. PHILADELPHIA 20-6.
Arizona over *Tennessee by 3
Don’t expect to see a line until it’s clearly established just who is going to be Arizona’s starting quarterback. The difference between Kurt Warner and disappointing backup Matt Leinart is that huge. The Cardinals haven’t been this good on the road in nearly 35 years going 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS. The return of inside linebacker Gerald Hayes helps their run defense. Vince Young went into Monday night with improved accuracy going 44-for-62 in his three starts, all victories. This is a division sandwich for Tennessee having faced Houston on the road Monday and with an away matchup against the Colts next week. ARIZONA 24-21.
*Atlanta over Tampa Bay by 13
This is Tampa Bay’s first dome game, but the Bucs have covered 14 of their last 18 games in Atlanta. The Falcons have been bad for the most part on the road this season, but tough in their Georgia Dome where they are 4-0 SU and ATS. Michael Turner has rushed for 428 yards in his last three games, averaging 9.1 yards a carry during this span. However, he missed last week’s overtime loss to the Giants and probably won’t play leaving the heavy-duty backfield load to Jason Snelling. It’s a plus if second-string tailback Jerious Norwood can play. He also missed last Sunday. Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS since Josh Freeman became the starting quarterback. ATLANTA 30-17.
*New York Jets over Carolina by 6
The Jets’ once-formidable rush defense has lost their swagger and beef with nose guard Kris Jenkins out. That’s been a huge contributor to New York losing six of its last seven. Carolina can run the ball effectively with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. However, the Panthers are missing offensive left tackle Jordan Gross and linebacker Thomas Davis, two of their best players. Carolina lacks a consistent passing attack to beat the Jets on the road where weather could be a factor. Thomas Jones has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. NY JETS 23-17.
*San Diego over Kansas City by 12
Philip Rivers tossed three touchdowns and the Chargers held Matt Cassel to a 25.3 quarterback rating when they buried the Chiefs, 37-7, at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7. San Diego is playing its best ball, winning five in a row. Rivers should have another field day against a slow Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs are without their best wideout, suspended Dwayne Bowe. Their ground game is more dangerous, though, with Jammal Chargers running instead of plodding Larry Johnson. This is a flat spot for San Diego, off a big revenge victory at Denver. The Chiefs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games. SAN DIEGO 28-16.
*New Orleans over New England by 1 (Monday)
After watching the Browns last Monday night, we deserve a matchup such as this. The Saints have covered seven of their last 10 games at the Louisiana Superdome. They are 10-1 ATS at home when facing non-division opponents. New England has struggled on the road losing to the Jets, Broncos and Colts. Its only away victory was versus Tampa Bay in London. Tom Brady will be dangerous against a Saints secondary that could be missing their two top cornerbacks, Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Reggie Bush (check status) missed last week. NEW ORLEANS 28-27.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Indianapolis at Houston – Two explosive offenses match up with the Colts averaging 36 points in their last eight games against Houston.
UNDER: Washington at Philadelphia – Averaging just 14.6 points this season, it’s not a huge surprise the offensively-battered Redskins are 16-5-1 under in their last 22 games.
OVER: Green Bay at Detroit – The Packers are 25-6-1 over in their last 32 carpet games and are banged-up defensively.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Green Bay at Detroit – The Packers blanked the Lions, 26-0, in Week 6. Green Bay is 8-0 SU versus the Lions, but 3-11 ATS as road chalk against Detroit.
Oakland at Dallas – Oakland defeated Dallas, 19-13, at home in 2005.
New York Giants at Denver – The Giants squeaked past the Broncos, 24-23, at home in 2005.
Indianapolis at Houston – The Colts held off the Texans, 20-17, in Week 9. The Colts are 14-1 SU lifetime versus the Texans, but 7-8 ATS. Eight of the last nine in the series have gone over.
Cleveland at Cincinnati – The Bengals edged the Browns, 23-20, in overtime in Week 4. The Bengals are 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 versus Cleveland.
Chicago at Minnesota – The teams split last season with the Bears winning 48-41 at home and losing 34-14 on the road. The Vikings are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven hosting Chicago.
Washington at Philadelphia – The Eagles beat the Redskins, 27-17, in Week 7.
Miami at Buffalo – The Dolphins romped past the Bills, 38-10, in Week 4. The Bills are 8-3 ATS, 7-4 SU during the past 11 games against Miami.
Arizona at Tennessee – The Cardinals defeated the Titans, 20-10, at home in 2005.
Seattle at St. Louis – The Seahawks shut out the Rams, 28-0, in Week 1. Seattle is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings versus St. Louis.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta – The teams split last season with the Buccaneers winning 24-9 at home and losing 13-10 in OT at Atlanta. The Buccaneers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 meetings versus the Falcons.
Carolina at New York Jets – The Panthers destroyed the Jets, 30-3, at home in 2005.
Jacksonville at San Francisco – The Jaguars edged the 49ers, 10-9, at home in 2005.
Kansas City at San Diego – The Chargers beat KC 37-7, in Week 7.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The Steelers went 3-0 SU versus the Ravens last season winning 23-20 in OT at home, 13-9 on the road and 23-14 at home in the playoffs. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS hosting Pittsburgh the past six times.
New England at New Orleans – The Patriots knocked off the Saints, 24-17, at home in 2005.
NBA
Thursday, November 26
*Atlanta over Orlando by 5
Fading the Hawks at Philips Arena hasn’t been the way to go this season. Atlanta has won its first seven home contests. The Hawks should be plenty fresh having last played on Saturday. ATLANTA 100-95.
*Utah over Chicago by 7
The Jazz haven’t been unable to avoid injuries and their defense ranked among the 12 worst. They catch the Bulls, though, on an extended road journey. This marks the Bulls’ fifth road contest in 10 days. UTAH 109-102.
Friday, November 27
Atlanta over *Philadelphia by 2
A victory by Atlanta over Orlando on Thursday could set up a letdown spot in this matchup. The Hawks, though, have looked like an elite team leading the league in points scored in the paint. The 76ers have beaten only one team besides the Knicks, Nets and Bobcats during their first 14 games. Elton Brand was averaging less than 10 points and six rebounds per game. ATLANTA 101-99.
***BEST BET
Washington over *Miami by 5
Rarely have Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison been on the court together during the past two years. But when they are, Washington is a formidable foe especially with improved pivot play. The underrated Jamison is the only player besides Dirk Nowitzki to average 19.5 points and 7.5 rebounds during the past five seasons. The Heat just got through playing Orland and has Boston up next. Those are the games they’ll be emphasizing not this matchup. The Wizards began the season 2-7. But that record is deceiving. If you toss out their game against the lowly Nets, the Wizards played teams with a combined winning percentage of .702, including seven playoff teams from last season. WASHINGTON 103-98.
Cleveland over *Charlotte by 7
The Cavaliers rolled past the punchless Bobcats, 90-79, at home in their fourth game of the season but failed to cover a 15-point spread. The Bobcats had lowest scoring average and field-goal percentage in the NBA, but have picked up offensive-minded Stephen Jackson. CLEVELAND 98-91.
***BEST BET
*Boston over Toronto by 18
Toronto has some interesting pieces on offense, but they are soft on the boards and their defense was a mess ranking among the bottom six. The Celtics don’t want to lose in this spot with a four-game road trip looming. The Raptors were 10-20 ATS when taking points through Nov. 21. It’s also the Raptors’ third game in four days. BOSTON 111-93.
*Oklahoma City over Milwaukee by 4
Brandon Jennings has been a revelation for Milwaukee. But the Bucks’ on-court chemistry could be disrupted by the return of Michael Redd. It’s also Milwaukee’s fourth road game in seven days. OKLAHOMA CITY 96-92.
*Indiana over Dallas by 2
The Pacers had won and covered five of their last seven entering the final week of this month. Dallas is playing for the third time in four nights and could be without Shawn Marion (check status) and Josh Howard (check status). INDIANA 107-105.
*Detroit over Los Angeles Clippers by 10
The Clippers are 8-22 ATS as a road ‘dog and had failed to cover in eight of their last 12 games through Nov. 22. DETROIT 104-94.
*Houston over San Antonio by 5
The Spurs have been a different team on the road, losing their first three away games by an average of 11 points. The Rockets have been surprisingly tough without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady thanks to unsung players such as Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry. HOUSTON 102-97.
***BEST BET
*Denver over New York by 25
New York is on the road for the third time in four nights. This is the Knicks’ fifth away trip in their last six games and they couldn’t be in a tougher venue than the Pepsi Center where the crowd is passionate and the air is thin. Both teams like to play up-tempo, but the Nuggets can keep the pressure on the entire game with quality backups, including lightening-quick point guard Ty Lawson. Going back to last Jan. 1, the Nuggets are 25-13 ATS as home chalk, including covering 11 of its last 15 home contests through Nov. 24. DENVER 123-98.
Phoenix over *Minnesota by 7
The Suns have too much offense and speed for a laboring Timberwolves squad still trying to pick up new coach Kurt Rambis’ complicated triangle offense and missing Kevin Love (check status). Only twice in their last 10 games have the Timberwolves broken the 90-point barrier through Nov. 22. PHOENIX 106-99.
*Portland over Memphis by 14
The Trail Blazers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games at the Rose Garden through Nov. 22. Brandon Roy and Andre Miller give Portland a huge backcourt edge. PORTLAND 108-94.
*Sacramento over New Jersey by 6
Brook Lopez has been the only New Jersey player to start every game this season. A rash of injuries has left the Nets suiting up just the league minimum eight players several times this season. The Nets hadn’t gone above 85 points during a six-game stretch through Nov. 20 and are playing their third road game in four nights. SACRAMENTO 92-86.
Saturday, November 28
*Washington over Charlotte by 7
Look for the Wizards to take a step forward as Gilbert Arenas shakes off two years of rust and gets more adjusted to the team’s new point guard-driven offense. With Antawn Jamison and Randy Foye healthy again, the Wizards are much better than their record. WASHINGTON 99-92.
***BEST BET
*Cleveland over Dallas by 18
It’s tough enough to play the Cavaliers on the road. It’s even far worse taking on the Cavaliers having played three days in the last four days like Dallas has, including two consecutive road matchups. The Cavaliers have the front-line depth to take advantage of Dallas’ lack of scoring in the paint. LeBron James gets especially motivated when he faces other superstars. So he’ll be psyched to get the better of Dirk Nowitzki. CLEVELAND 106-88.
Portland over *Utah by 2
Even though the Trail Blazers played last night, we would look to fade Utah if the Jazz are favored. The Trail Blazers are a rising power with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. The Jazz are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 home contests, 4-11 ATS as a home favorite through Nov. 23. PORTLAND 106-104.
Orlando over *Milwaukee by 2
Expect a competitive matchup. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy already has had to field eight different starting lineups because of injuries. There’s a drop at point guard for Orlando with injured Jameer Nelson being replaced by Jason Williams. He could be the league’s worst defender. ORLANDO 97-95.
Los Angeles Lakers over *Golden State by 7
The Lakers are back to full strength with the return of Pau Gasol. The Warriors haven’t been so lucky. Their rotation is down two players with forward Kelenna Azubuike out for the season with a knee injury and guard C.J. Watson out indefinitely after testing positive for the H1N1 virus. LA LAKERS 116-109
Sunday, November 29
Atlanta over *Detroit by 1
The Hawks have been playing too well to call for an outright Detroit victory, especially if Richard Hamilton (check status) still is out. But this is a dangerous spot for the Hawks. It’s their third game in four days and with an early start time it’s almost like playing a fourth game in a row. They also might be without point guard Mike Bibby (check status). ATLANTA 97-96.
*Toronto over Phoenix by 2
Toronto and Phoenix fell a whopping 31 points short of their over/under total when the Suns edged the Raptors, 101-100, at home two weeks ago. The Suns are the only team to score in triple-digits in every game heading into the third week of this month, while ranking No. 1 in scoring. The Raptors were fifth in points per game. TORONTO 115-113.
***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Clippers over Memphis by 14
It’s difficult to attach the word motivation to the Clippers. But Los Angeles should be up for this rematch after the Grizzlies rolled past them 106-91 in Memphis less than two weeks ago. The Grizzlies are still getting past the brief but embarrassing Allen Iverson saga and are unsettled again at point guard with Jamaal Tinsley challenging incumbent Mike Conley. LA CLIPPERS 104-90.
***BEST BET
*New York over Orlando 4
Rarely will you find the name Knicks under a Best Bet title. Orlando, though, is vulnerable in this spot. It’s the Magic’s fourth game in five days. The Magic could let up having just faced Miami, Atlanta and improved Milwaukee, all of whom play tough defense. Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy knows his team is a work in progress this early in the season with newcomers Jason Williams, Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass all in the rotation and even on the court at the same time during various stages. NEW YORK 108-104.
Boston over *Miami by 5
After holding six of its first nine opponents to less than 90 points, the Heat’s defense has recently developed some chinks. Miami had allowed 100 points to Oklahoma City, 105 points to Atlanta and 120 Toronto during a three-game span entering the fourth week of November. Boston ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up less than 89 points per contest and with the defensive stoppers to make Dwayne Wade earn his points. BOSTON 94-89.
*San Antonio over Philadelphia by 6
The 76ers will be playing their fifth game in nine days, but the Spurs are tough to lay big points with if Manu Ginobili (check status), remain out. SAN ANTONIO 98-92.
Houston over *Oklahoma City by 5
The Thunder had a winning record after 11 games after starting 6-32 last season. Houston, though, already owns double-digit road victories against the Jazz and Lakers. HOUSTON 103-98.
*Denver over Minnesota by 16
Carmelo Anthony could practically outscore the punchless Timberwolves. Anthony was the only player to score at least 20 points in every one of his games going into the final week of this month. Since edging the Nets by two opening night, the Timberwolves have lost 12 in a row through Nov. 22. DENVER 106-90.
New Orleans over *Sacramento by 3
Darren Collison and Bobby Brown don’t exactly add up to Chris Paul (check status). But the Hornets are getting more comfortable and picking up the system of Jeff Bower, who replaced Byron Scott as coach nine games into the season. David West and Peja Stojakovic can still fill it up on the wings. NEW ORLEANS 103-100.
*Los Angeles Lakers over New Jersey by 20
This may be the biggest pointspread of the season. Pau Gasol makes the Lakers a better defensive club creating a Twin Towers presence with center Andrew Bynum. Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest are aggressive on the perimeter. The Nets are playing in their fourth road game in six days. LA LAKERS 102-82.
Monday, November 30
**PREFERRED
Chicago over *Milwaukee by 10
Go to the head of the class if you knew Joakim Noah was leading the NBA in rebounding. Milwaukee jumped out of the gates fast winning eight of its first 11 games. The Bucks are improved, but an easy schedule, lots of home games and Brandon Jennings catching the league by surprise also contributed heavily to Milwaukee’s early success. But now defenses are keying on the rookie Jennings and the Bucks lack an inside scoring option with center Andrew Bogut out. The Bucks lack talent and their chemistry has changed with Bogut out. CHICAGO 96-86.
*Dallas over Philadelphia by 11
Drew Gooden has done a nice job replacing Erick Dampier (check status) in the middle for Dallas, which continues to get stellar play from Dirk Nowitzki. Only twice in their last eight games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier entering the final week of this month. Already a weak rebounding team, the 76ers’ inside play took a hit when underrated Marreese Speights (13 points and 6.4 rebounds per game) suffered a partial tear of the MCL in his left knee. DALLAS 100-89.
*Utah over Memphis by 7
The Grizzlies should be settled down by now following Allen Iverson’s departure. However, that still doesn’t solve the Grizzlies’ backcourt deficiencies, which Deron Williams can exploit. Memphis does have plenty of scoring at the wings with Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay along with swingman O.J. Mayo. UTAH 114-107.
*Golden State over Indiana by 5
Since the start of last season, Indiana is only 18-45 when giving up 100 or more points through November 21. Indiana has been idle since Friday but has been without Mike Dunleavy, Jeff Foster and backup point guard Travis Diener. GOLDEN ST. 118-113.
Tuesday, December 1
*Toronto over Washington by 7
Finally healthy, the Wizards are poised to make a move. They’ve been a fade on the road, though, going 8-22-2 ATS in their last 32 away matchups through Thanksgiving. TORONTO 115-108.
Boston over *Charlotte by 5
Charlotte may only score 75 points against the Celtics’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense, but Boston entered the fourth week of November mired in a 1-7 ATS slump. BOSTON 82-77.
Phoenix over *New York by 6
The Knicks further eroded their fan base deciding Allen Iverson is not the answer. Their short guards make New York especially vulnerable to Phoenix’s top-ranked offense. The Suns have to concentrate with a Wednesday look-ahead road matchup versus Cleveland on tap. PHOENIX 121-115.
**PREFERRED
*Denver over Golden State by 18
The short-handed Warriors are playing for the third time in four nights and this one is in high altitude. Carmelo Anthony, Nene and Chauncey Billups should coast against the Warriors, who ranked last in scoring defense and second-from-the-bottom in defensive field goal percentage. DENVER 126-108.
*Portland over Miami by 7
This begins a four-game West Coast trip for Miami. The Heat is trying to get healthy with Quentin Richardson (check status) and Udonis Haslem (check status) missing time entering Thanksgiving week. PORTLAND 99-92.
*Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans by 13
Unless Chris Paul is in action, the Lakers can name their score. The Lakers rolled past the Hornets, 104-88, at home on Nov. 8 as a 6 _-point favorite and that’s when the Hornets had Paul. The Hornets were 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games through Nov. 21. LA LAKERS 102-89.
Wednesday, December 2
*Orlando over New York by 14
It could be worse for the Knicks – they could be the Nets. Orlando had won 16 of its last 19 home games through Nov. 24. ORLANDO 108-94.
**PREFERRED
Milwaukee over *Washington over by 5
The Wizards were 2-9 ATS on the second of back-to-back games through Nov. 27. Rookie or not, Brandon Jennings was playing as well as any guard during the three weeks of the season. He could be even better when sharpshooter Michael Redd returns to the lineup. MILWAUKEE 107-102.
*Atlanta over Toronto by 6
The Raptors were 7-1 ATS in their last eight Eastern Conference games entering the fourth week of this month. ATLANTA 112-106.
**PREFERRED
*Cleveland over Phoenix by 15
Idle since Saturday, the Cavs draw Phoenix playing its third road game in four days. LeBron James could score 60 against such a weak defense. CLEVELAND 120-105.
Dallas over *New Jersey by 7
If the Nets haven’t won a game on their West Coast trip a loss here would set a record most defeats to open a season. DALLAS 96-89.
*Chicago over Detroit by 6
The Pistons were 5-11 ATS as a road ‘dog through Nov. 21. CHICAGO 99-93.
*Minnesota over Memphis by 5
It’s Memphis’ fifth road game in eight days. MINNESOTA 96-91.
*Oklahoma City over Philadelphia by 5
This marks the 76ers’ fifth road trip in their last six games. The 76ers began this span putting up less than 88 points per game during their past five contests. OKLAHOMA CITY 93-88.
Indiana over *Sacramento by 2
The Kings have started to fall back to Earth, while the Pacers were on a 6-1 road covering run through the third week of this month. INDIANA 108-106.
Houston over *Los Angeles Clippers by 6
Chris Kaman has been very solid for the Clippers so far, but Los Angeles misses Eric Gordon (check status). The Rockets had covered nine of their first 14 games. HOUSTON 105-99.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Thursday, November 26
OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Orlando, FL)
Creighton over Michigan by 2
Good defensive coach like Dana Altman of Creighton will take Manny Harris away from the Michigan offense and dare the rest of the team to beat the Blue Jays. Michigan ain’t the most physical Big Ten team and physical power-conference foes would be the type to give Creighton the most trouble. CREIGHTON, 68-66.
***BEST BET
Xavier over Marquette by 18
Current Marquette head coach Buzz Williams figures to call ex-Marquette head coach Tom Crean at Indiana and ask him, “Why did you have to let Xavier’s Jordan Crawford transfer out of IU?” Good offensive system and players would seem to have a decent chance to expose Marquette’s questionable ’09 defense. XAVIER, 82-64.
Baylor over Alabama by 4
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Florida State vs. Iona
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76 CLASSIC (Anaheim, CA)
West Virginia over Long Beach State by 16
Clemson over Texas A&M by 6
**PREFERRED
Minnesota over Butler by 4
Be careful about laying points with Butler against a power-conference foe that can play defense and rebound. Minnesota’s Lawrence Westbrook was the typical “leading scorer out sick” for the Gophers in some recent home cupcake action, which college basketball coaches love to employ to help spread minutes around to guys who won’t be playing against real opponents, which hurts the real opponents’ ability to scout them properly. MINNESOTA, 52-48.
UCLA over Portland by 9
Oklahoma over Houston by 11 (at Anchorage, AK)
Jeff Capel gave his ex-team a gift by showing up unprepared at VCU, where they play defense. There is no D in Houston. OKLAHOMA, 80-69.
Friday, November 27
**PREFERRED
South Florida* over Florida Atlantic by 25
FAU was on the road from November 16 thru November 23, all against lesser opposition. Now they move up in class to face a Big East foe. Early on, they are shooting 40% from the field after shooting 41% from the field last season. South Florida has a 20-win goal this season and will get there by opening their mouths while swimming along the bottom. SOUTH FLORIDA, 79-54.
Syracuse* over Columbia by 24
VCU* over Nevada by 5
New Mexico over Hawaii* by 8
Hawaii has already surrendered 80+ twice in its home building to Northern Colorado and BYU. Bad things come in threes, which is what New Mexico will be firing from the opening tip. NEW MEXICO, 84-76.
Cornell over Toledo by 19 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Virginia Tech over Temple by 6
Rutgers over Massachusetts by 5 (at Atlantic City, NJ)
Florida over Michigan State by 8 (at Atlantic City, NJ)
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL (Chicago, IL)
Iowa State over Saint Louis by 10
Can Iowa State really score the ball this season and continue to get offensive balance? They are a lot more experienced than the Saint Louis team that Majerus manages to make younger and younger as his tenure gets longer and longer.
Notre Dame over Northwestern by 15
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL (S.P.I, TX)
Mississippi State over Richmond by 6
Gotta love that a Miss State forward told the media that his father said MSU head coach Rick Stansbury was “outcoached” in a loss vs. Rider of the MAAC. Richmond had zippy-paced Longwood College before this, a good prep. The Stansbury crew scheduled turtle-tempo Texas-Pan American and Richmond is no longer a slowdown team. But they haven’t been up-tempo long enough. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 75-69.
Missouri* over Old Dominion by 23
ODU can play up-tempo in their own conference, or drag it down to their own preferred pace, but they can’t take Missouri’s tempo from them and they won’t be able to hang with them for 40 minutes at Missouri’s pace. MISSOURI, 84-61.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Oklahoma State over Bradley by 11
Utah over Illinois by 1
Houston over San Diego by 8 (at Anchorage, AK)
Too much offense for Houston, not enough offense or depth for the beach crew playing in the Arctic. HOUSTON, 85-77.
Saturday, November 28
Purdue* over Central Michigan by 22
Ball State* over Cal Davis by 7
Wichita State over Cleveland State* by 1
CSU has revenge for a Bracket Buster loss at Wichita State last season, but they are not good at playing Wichita State’s halfcourt game and they can’t shoot straight enough to win playing their own game. WICHITA STATE, 69-68.
George Washington* over Oregon State by 2
DePaul* over Detroit by 9
Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Bowling Green by 10
Northeastern* over Wright State by 3
Dayton* over Towson by 19
Miami-OH* over Evansville by 18
Tulane* over George Mason by 1
Villanova* over Lasalle by 1
The intra-city visitors will test Villanova inside with good defensive length and the ability to rebound their own misses. VILLANOVA, 71-70.
Pacific over San Jose State* by 3
***BEST BET
UNLV* over Louisville by 12
Pitino is playing a lot of zone defense because he doesn’t trust this group in man-to-man. That means that Louisville isn’t playing UNLV, some ordinary team that can’t rebound as strongly out of the zone is playing UNLV, which helps to minimize the Rebs’ board weakness they often overcome anyway. If Louisville goes man, they’ll mess up their defensive assignments. Lon Kruger will be happy either way. UNLV, 86-74.
Fresno State* over Santa Clara by 16
Wake Forest* over William & Mary by 22
Marshall* over Ohio by 4
Pittsburgh* over Youngstown State by 18
Boston College over Providence* by 4
Providence had their shot at Alabama and blew it in an overtime session it shouldn’t have come to. Wouldn’t trust the shooting skills of too many new players – and some of the old ones -- against an ACC foe that got some key players back from recent suspension. BOSTON COLLEGE, 78-74.
Southern Illinois* over Illinois-Chicago by 10
Arkansas-LR* over Cal Poly-SLO by 18
Northern Iowa* over Northern Illinois by 21
Tulsa over Missouri State* by 4
Road team can usually play decent defense without pressuring the ball, which helps to keep it out of foul trouble and safer from a Missouri Valley hose job than other types of teams would be. TULSA, 71-67.
TCU* over Louisiana Tech by 3
Boise State* over North Texas by 9
Cal-Santa Barbara over Loyola Marymount by
Virginia Tech over Delaware by 17 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Temple* over St. John’s by 6 (at Philadelphia, PA)
Drexel* over Toledo by 11
Troy over Valparaiso by 4 (at Statesboro, GA)
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Sunday, November 29
Arkansas* over South Alabama by 10
North Carolina State* over New Orleans by 20
California* over Princeton by 17
Arkansas State* over Indiana State by 8
Colorado State* over San Francisco by 9
Texas over Rice* by 15
USC* over Nebraska by 8
Wyoming* over Pepperdine by 15
North Carolina* over Nevada by 17
**PREFERRED
Cornell over Drexel* by 6
Until Drexel displays the ability to put the ball in the net, any opponent that can shoot well seems like a reasonable bet to beat the Dragons vs. the number. A 34% field goal percentage to start the season will improve, but by how much? CORNELL, 68-62.
Illinois State* over St. Bonaventure by 10
Monday, November 30
**PREFERRED
Penn State over Virginia* by 6
Nittany sub-par efforts in recent tournament help build some value on them and Ed DeChellis’ floor-spreading system against first-season transitioning of Virginia players to Tony Bennett’s new systems. They’ve got to be there on the catch when Penn State drives and kicks it out. PENN STATE, 68-62.
Bowling Green* over Florida International by 22
BG’s Louis Orr got a 2-year extension in October, then his team allowed 100 points earlier in November. Not a good thing following the university’s show of good faith. Therefore, he will demand 100 points from his players against Isiah Thomas’ bad opponent in the friendly confines. BOWLING GREEN, 91-69.
San Jose State* over St. Mary’s by 1
The home Spartans are a lot healthier now than they were at the end of last season and last season’s productive new players have had time to jell. If they’re ever going to get a real win, now would be the time. SAN JOSE STATE, 73-72.
Tuesday, December 1
Temple over Western Michigan* by 2
The rims will get a workout. WMU needs to make it physical and get Lavoy Allen outta there for Temple. TEMPLE, 56-54.
Northeastern* over Providence by 8
The home team’s half-court grind is the last thing that this particular Providence team wants to see. Watching Providence try to score in the half-court figures to be an agonizing task for everyone except Northeastern backers. NORTHEASTERN, 71-63.
Wake Forest over Purdue* by 5
Purdue wasn’t going to miss point guard Lewis Jackson against anyone on their schedule until this particular points. WAKE FOREST, 84-79.
North Carolina State* over Northwestern by 16
If Wolfpack head coach Sidney Lowe finds a way to keep it close vs. an already injured Northwestern team, they might want to find a loophole in that contract. NORTH CAROLINA STATE, 65-49.
Maryland* over Indiana by 2
Maryland will find a way to be pushed around and stay close to an inferior team on the road. MARYLAND, 66-64.
LSU* over UL-Lafayette by 19
Colorado* over San Francisco by 14
UTEP over New Mexico State* by 5
Michigan State over North Carolina by 10
Paybacks can go down very hard. Double-paybacks go down harder. MICHIGAN STATE, 79-69.
Iowa* over Virginia Tech by 2
Fresno State* over Pacific by 9
Cal-Santa Barbara* over Santa Clara by 14
Wednesday, December 2
Dayton over Miami-OH* by 1
Miami will have hot and cold shooting nights. The cold ones figure to come against decent defensive foes. Like Dayton. DAYTON, 64-63.
Pittsburgh over Duquesne* by 6
Duquesne’s Damian Saunders was the nation’s leading rebounder early on, but you get a lot of second chances when your team plays at a quick pace and misses lots of shots and plays poor-shooting opponents. PITTSBURGH, 75-69.
Villanova* over Drexel by 16
Confident shooters on ‘Nova vs. bricklayers on Drexel. VILLANOVA, 71-55.
George Washington* over George Mason by 5
Richmond* over Old Dominion by 5
Saint Louis over Georgia* by 1
Butler over Ball State* by 11
South Carolina* over Western Kentucky by 10
Clemson* over Illinois by 2
Miami-FL* over Minnesota by 8
VCU* over Rhode Island by 4
Michigan* over Boston College by 8
Tulsa* over Oklahoma State by 1
Be wary of Tulsa going up in class and expected to win. They don’t have the firepower to stay in it if Oklahoma State is hot from outside. TULSA, 76-75.
Charlotte* over East Carolina by 6
UAB* over Middle Tennessee by 7
Tulane* over New Orleans by 7
Oklahoma* over Arkansas by 9
Louisiana Tech over UL-Monroe* by 2
Rice over Harvard* by 1
Iowa State* over Northern Iowa by 8
Northern Iowa shot 6-of-32 from 3-point range in last season’s overtime loss. Their 7-footer Egsleder can’t play a full game against Iowa State’s big man Brackins. IOWA STATE, 79-71.
Mississippi over Arkansas State* by 2
ASU will try to make a grind out of it and win with defense and rebounding, but coach Brady left the SEC as Ol’ Miss’ Andy Kennedy was getting there and doesn’t know as much as he thinks he might know about the Rebs. MISSISSIPPI, 68-66.
Bradley over Northern Illinois* by 8
Arkansas-LR* over Missouri State by 2
SMU* over TCU by 1
Utah State* over BYU by 4
Arizona* over UNLV by 5
Gonzaga* over Washington State by 6
New Mexico* over California by 1
Wisconsin* over Duke by 7
Badgers say, ‘Yes, you’re new motion offense looks nice against teams that don’t play defense, but we’ve been running that stuff for a while and defending it in practice so screw you, Dukies. WISCONSIN, 68-61.
Vanderbilt* over Missouri by 11
On the road, Missouri’s chances against a well-balanced team that takes care of the ball decrease substantially. VANDERBILT, 82-71.
Florida State* over Ohio State by 11
That close game by the Buckeyes against North Carolina isn’t looking so good right now. FLORIDA STATE, 80-69.
San Diego* over San Diego State by 4
Cal-Irvine* over Hawaii by 4
