Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
These college best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread. 2009 record in parenthesis.
Thursday, Nov. 19
OKLAHOMA STATE by 21 over Colorado (ESPN)
Friday, Nov. 20
BOWLING GREEN by 7 over Akron
TOLEDO by 24 over Eastern Michigan
Boise State by 27 over UTAH STATE
Saturday, Nov. 21
Rutgers (7-2) by 31 over SYRACUSE (2-8)—This game is the story of one team with a ton of talent and finally playing at the top of its game meeting a team with some talent, absolutely no depth and finding it more difficult each week to survive. Rutgers was somewhat of an unknown for the first half of the season but signaled the world it was back and up to speed this past week when it buried a good South Florida team, 31-0. Syracuse comes into this game off a heart-breaking 10-9 loss at Louisville in a game it had numerous opportunities to win—and you could tell it really hurt. The Orange have scored an average of just 8.7 points in each of their last three games and are simply up against it in this one against a lightning fast Rutgers team that shows no mercy to anyone.
FLORIDA STATE (5-5) by 28 over Maryland (2-8)—It is now or probably never for Florida State and its bowl hopes if it does not get the job done in this one. It should be as easy as it looks against a Maryland team that is young, mistake-prone, out of sync and with not one single game-breaking player. In other words it is not an accident the Terrapins are 2-8. FSU, which will be a big underdog at Florida next week, and that means it must get win number six in this one or not go bowling. With that incentive driving the Seminoles, who won at Wake Forest, 41-28, as a 4 ½-point underdog last week, has the talent to take care of business, and will.
MISSOURI (6-4) by 21 over Iowa State (6-5)—One can only ask where Missouri has been hiding wide-receiver Danario Alexander this season. Danario caught 10 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-12 win at Kansas State, giving him 414 yards receiving in the past two games. It is obvious he has given the up-and-down Tigers the boost they needed to put their season back together and my money says Iowa State won’t be able to stop him and quarterback Blaine Gabbart this week. Iowa State is a much-improved team and does own a 9-7 road win over Nebraska, but the Cyclones do not have an offense to keep with what has become a very explosive Missouri team.
TEMPLE (8-2) by 10 over Kent State (5-4)—Temple remains one of the most under-rated teams in the country and that is why the Owls are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. No one believes this former college football doormat can be this good, but let me assure you it is. Temple goes for its 9th straight win against a solid Kent State team and will not have an easy time of it but, in the end, The Owls talent, depth and speed should prevail. Temple comes into this game off a 56-17 win at Akron last week, while Kent arrives in Philadelphia off a much-needed bye week. As amazing as it might sound to some football pundits, Temple, which has shown dramatic growth and improvement under 4th-year coach Al Golden has a chance to go 10-2 this season.
MICHIGAN STATE (7-4) by 13 over Penn State (9-2)—This is one of those games where I just have a gut feeling Michigan State is going to fire its best shot and win with a certain degree of ease. The Nittany Lions overcame four first-half fumbles last week to finally get the win over a dramatically inferior Indiana team, 31-20, and obviously was much the best to do that. With that said, it must be noted Penn State is 9-2 only because it has played a powder puff schedule that includes the likes of Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. When it has played a good Big Ten team, it has been crushed, losing at Iowa, 21-10, and two games back at home to Ohio State, 24-7. Michigan State is a good Big Ten team and would like nothing better than to close out its season with a win that would upgrade its bowl position. My money says the Spartans will do just that.
HOUSTON (8-2) by 35 over Memphis (2-8)—A down-and-out Memphis football team that has beaten only 1-AA Tennessee-Martin and Texas-El Paso and seen its coach fired two weeks ago has gone from the frying pan into the fire for this one, after losing last week at home to UAB, 31-21. The Tigers are catching Houston coming off an upset 37-32 loss at Central Florida and in a major bounce-back mode. UCF got the money against Houston because it did one thing few teams can do—keep the ball away from Cougar quarterback Case Keenum and the explosive offense he leads. Central Florida had the ball for 39.30 of the 60-minute game against Houston and it worked. Unfortunately Memphis does not have the talent to do that and there is no way the Tigers are going to out-shoot Houston. It should be a blowout.
UL-MONROE (6-4) by 14 over UL-Lafayette (6-4)—This is the most important game UL-Monroe (6-4) has played since it became a member of the NCAA 1-A ranks in 1994. A win in this spot will guarantee the Warhawks have their first winning season since leaving 1-AA and, more than that, will more than likely get them their first-ever bowl bid. There is little question in my mind UL-Monroe will get the win and it has far more to do with talent than it does incentive. The Warhawks are a very decent football team and it must be pointed out their four losses have come at Texas, at Arizona State, at Kentucky and at Troy. Coach Charlie Weatherbie’s time has come.
Best Of The Rest
OHIO by 3 over Northern Illinois
CLEMSON by 21 over Virginia
Wisconsin by 13 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA by 17 over Minnesota
SOUTH FLORIDA by 14 over Louisville
INDIANA by 4 over Purdue
North Carolina by 7 over BOSTON COLLEGE
VIRGINIA TECH by 21 over N.C. State
Vanderbilt by 3 over TENNESSEE
Kentucky by 7 over GEORGIA
TCU by 31 over Wyoming
*ARKANSAS by 9 over Mississippi State
Oregon State by 42 over WASHINGTON STATE
UCLA by 3 over Arizona State
STANFORD by 7 over California
LSU by 3 over MISSISSIPPI
BYU by 17 over Air Force
EAST CAROLINA by 7 over UAB
Kansas State by 6 over NEBRASKA
Texas Tech by 10 over OKLAHOMA
Baylor by 6 over TEXAS A&M
Rice by 1 over UTEP
UTAH by 24 over San Diego State
FRESNO STATE by 15 over Louisiana Tech
Colorado State by 7 over NEW MEXICO
ARIZONA by 3 over Oregon
SMU by 3 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS by 10 over Tulsa
TEXAS by 45 over Kansas
MIAMI by 20 over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA by 35 over Tulane
Nevada by 42 over NEW MEXICO STATE
Hawaii by 21 over SAN JOSE STATE
FLORIDA by 55 over Florida International
Army by 10 over NORTH TEXAS
TROY by 14 over Florida Atlantic
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over Arkansas State
NFL BEST BETS
These NFL best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Sunday, Nov. 22
Steelers by 28 over CHIEFS—The Steelers, who lost at home last week, 18-12, to the Cincinnati Bengals, are not going to be in a benevolent frame of mind when they take the field at Arrowhead against a Kansas City team that is coached by a fool. If Pittsburgh did not need to put itself back on track, the Steelers would still be a very tough opponent for Kansas City. The Chiefs, who on offense average but 15.8 points and 257.8 yards per game, will have the task of trying to move the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that is quick to the ball and gives up nothing.
VIKINGS by 17 over Seahawks—The Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are on a roll and have every single edge over the Seahawks in this one. Ageless quarterback Brett Favre has never played better—and I mean just that—and the Vikings have a chemistry on both offense and defense that is a weapon within itself. Seattle certainly has room to improve but went 0-3 in their first three games on the road this season and in this contest will be playing its second straight away game and its third road game in its last four.
PATRIOTS by 21 over Jets—The New York Jets were certainly brought back to earth last week when the fell at home to Jacksonville, 24-22. It was their second straight loss and served as a wake-up call that all that talk about the playoffs was just that—talk. New York opened the season 3-0 but has since gone 1-5, with the lone win coming at Oakland. New England beat the Jets, 16-9, at The Meadowlands earlier in the season and New England is a much better team now than it was then. Now factor into the equation the dislike Pats Coach Bill Belichick has for the Jets and the New Yorkers figure to be in for a long afternoon.
Bengals by 24 over RAIDERS—As noted elsewhere in this publication, the 7-2 Bengals are for real. Not only are they getting it done with a very sophisticated offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer, the Bengals have come up with one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 16.9 points and 325.5 yards per game—and those numbers came against some of the best the league has to offer. This is a game in which talent and discipline trumps anything the Raiders bring to the game. For the record, Cincinnati is going for its 6th straight road win.
Best Of The Rest
JAGUARS by 10 over Bills
RAVENS by 3 over Colts
GIANTS by 4 over Falcons
PACKERS by 7 over 49ers
COWBOYS by 13 over Redskins
Saints by 14 over BUCS
Cardinals by 10 over RAMS
Chargers by 7 over BRONCOS
BEARS by 4 over Eagles
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS
These college basketball best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
MICHIGAN STATE by 35 over Toledo—Toledo just lost at home to Eastern Illinois, 72-62, and now heads into East Lansing to take on a top five Michigan State team that has announced to the world it does not intend to begin this season slowly—something that has plagued it in the past. Just do the math.
Saturday, Nov. 21
Long Beach State by 12 over WIS-GREEN BAY—Long Beach State is absolutely loaded, with four starters back from last year’s 15-15 team, a top ten recruiting class and a coach (Dan Monson) who is among the best and there is no reason to think the 49ers won get it done against a rebuilding Green Bay squad.
PENN by 20 over Delaware—Penn has one of the best backcourts in the East with guards Zack Rosen and Tyler Benardini, a solid front line and the home court. The Quakers do not qualify as world-beaters but they have enough to handle a Delaware team that has its troubles on the road.
TULSA by 18 over South Alabama—This is the best Tulsa team since Tubby Smith was holding court with the Hurricane and its speed, talent and depth should provide a rather easy win over a South Alabama that is just finding its way with a host of new players.
VCU by 8 over Oklahoma—VCU is one of college basketball’s real sleepers, has one of the strongest home court bias figures in the business and will come out firing its best shot to get a little respect by beating a name team.
MOREHEAD STATE by 12 over LA-Monroe—Monroe returns all five starters from last year’s 10-20 team and will most certainly be much better this time around. That will help a little bit but Morehead State has quality talent, great coaching and the home court.
Sunday, Nov. 22
CREIGHTON by 20 over Ark-Little Rock—Creighton showed just how tough it was when it opened the season at Dayton against the best Flyer team in decades and took them right to the money before losing by 10. The Blue Jays are loaded and should have little trouble with an Arkansas-Little Rock team that simply does not have a lot of talent.
NEW MEXICO by 17 over Miami-OH—This is supposed to be a rebuilding year in Albuquerque but I don‘t buy it. New Mexico has enough talent returning from last year’s 22-12 team to give anybody trouble—and the Lobos have had an excellent recruiting years. Miami gave some indications in a season-open loss at Towson that it might be in for a long season.
Monday, Nov. 23
SAINT MARY’S-CAL by 30 over Cal Poly—It is obvious Saint Mary’s has simply reloaded again and is on track for another outstanding season and this game should be little more than a scrimmage for the Gaels against a Cal Poly team that has won just 19 games over the past two seasons.
MURRAY STATE by 23 over Florida International—Murray State has four starters back from last year’s 20-16 team, are again ready to challenge for the OVC championship and have ever single edge over a Florida International team that has little quality talent.
Tuesday, Nov. 24
WRIGHT STATE by 10 over Central Michigan—Wright State is another team that has the talent to beat most of the mediocre teams on its schedule. The Raiders showed in a narrow 74-69 loss at powerful Washington that they can stay with the best. Central Michigan is a bit of a mystery right now but the figures say Wright State by 10.
EASTERN KENTUCKY by 14 over Cal-Irvine—Eastern Kentucky fields a veteran team that is much better than last year’s 18-13 unit and should parlay its outstanding defense to an impressive win over a Cal-Irvine team that seldom wins on the road.
UTAH STATE by 30 over Idaho State—Utah State has simply reloaded again and has another outstanding basketball team. The Aggies have three big things going for them in this game. First of all, there are few tougher home courts to play on than Utah State’s home court—the 10,270-seat Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan. Then there is the simple fact Idaho State does not have the kind of talent it takes to stay with a good team such as the Aggies. Last, but not least, Idaho State is a terrible road team.
NBA BEST BETS
These NBA best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
HAWKS by 10 over Rockets—Atlanta opened the season 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS and, despite that, still remain the most under-rated team in the NBA. The Hawks have all the edges in this one.
CELTICS by 8 over Magic—The aging Celtics are showing signs of wear and have turned up to heat to work through their recent lapses. They won’t waste anytime showing a national TV (ESPN) audience that they are not going away.
MAVERICKS by 12 over Kings—Dallas won’t mind the improving Kings a pushover but should get the win in this one. Dallas has the talent, is extremely tough at home and is playing a team that is just 1-3 on the road this season.
Saturday, Nov. 21
SPURS by 15 over Wizards—The Spurs seldom get beat at home by good teams and almost never by bad ones—and Washington qualifies in the latter category. Every year—for at least the past 15 years—this is supposed to be the one for the Wizards and it does not happen.
JAZZ by 14 over Pistons—The Utah Jazz got off to a dreadful start but seemed to wake up on their recent road trip and should have little trouble in manhandling a Detroit team that has been slowed by injuries and a genuine lack of talent.
TRAIL BLAZERS by 23 over Timberwolves—Portland is playing outstanding basketball right now and is meeting a Minnesota team that has little offense. The Timberwolves opened the season 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS and arrive in Portland averaging just 90.2 points per game
Sunday, Nov. 22
HEAT by 12 over Hornets—The Miami Heat are playing top-flight basketball right now and are meeting a New Orleans Hornets team that is in a shambles because of the stupidity of their owner. He has fired a coach the team loved, replaced him with the general manager and has destroyed the morale of what could be a good NBA team.
LAKERS by 11 over Thunder—Oklahoma City is the most improved team in the NBA and showed just how much better it is last week by handing the San Antonio Spurs their first home loss of the season. That most certainly served as a wake-up call for the Lakers who will be ready.
NO SURPRISE HERE AS 10-0 TEXAS, FLORIDA
ALABAMA, TCU RANKED 1-2-3-4 IN NCAA DEFENSE
Many give lip service to the importance of defense in college football but here the proof is in black and white. The top four teams in the BCS ratings—Texas, Florida, Alabama and TCU—are ranked 1-2-3-4 in total defense. The only other 10-0 team in the country, Boise State, holds down the 12th spot.
Of the top 25 teams in total defense, only two—Army (4-6) and Arizona State (4-6) have losing records.
Bettors tend to focus more on offense than defense but at this time of the season, when teams are battling for national honors to factor into the handicapping equation just how effective they are on defense.
For the record, I have Alabama ranked number one in my Top Ten on the basis of its defense. It is as good as I have ever seen and overall is better than that of higher ranked Texas and Florida and at least on par with TCU
Here is a list of the top 25 defensive teams in the country.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
These college best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread. 2009 record in parenthesis.
Thursday, Nov. 19
OKLAHOMA STATE by 21 over Colorado (ESPN)
Friday, Nov. 20
BOWLING GREEN by 7 over Akron
TOLEDO by 24 over Eastern Michigan
Boise State by 27 over UTAH STATE
Saturday, Nov. 21
Rutgers (7-2) by 31 over SYRACUSE (2-8)—This game is the story of one team with a ton of talent and finally playing at the top of its game meeting a team with some talent, absolutely no depth and finding it more difficult each week to survive. Rutgers was somewhat of an unknown for the first half of the season but signaled the world it was back and up to speed this past week when it buried a good South Florida team, 31-0. Syracuse comes into this game off a heart-breaking 10-9 loss at Louisville in a game it had numerous opportunities to win—and you could tell it really hurt. The Orange have scored an average of just 8.7 points in each of their last three games and are simply up against it in this one against a lightning fast Rutgers team that shows no mercy to anyone.
FLORIDA STATE (5-5) by 28 over Maryland (2-8)—It is now or probably never for Florida State and its bowl hopes if it does not get the job done in this one. It should be as easy as it looks against a Maryland team that is young, mistake-prone, out of sync and with not one single game-breaking player. In other words it is not an accident the Terrapins are 2-8. FSU, which will be a big underdog at Florida next week, and that means it must get win number six in this one or not go bowling. With that incentive driving the Seminoles, who won at Wake Forest, 41-28, as a 4 ½-point underdog last week, has the talent to take care of business, and will.
MISSOURI (6-4) by 21 over Iowa State (6-5)—One can only ask where Missouri has been hiding wide-receiver Danario Alexander this season. Danario caught 10 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 38-12 win at Kansas State, giving him 414 yards receiving in the past two games. It is obvious he has given the up-and-down Tigers the boost they needed to put their season back together and my money says Iowa State won’t be able to stop him and quarterback Blaine Gabbart this week. Iowa State is a much-improved team and does own a 9-7 road win over Nebraska, but the Cyclones do not have an offense to keep with what has become a very explosive Missouri team.
TEMPLE (8-2) by 10 over Kent State (5-4)—Temple remains one of the most under-rated teams in the country and that is why the Owls are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. No one believes this former college football doormat can be this good, but let me assure you it is. Temple goes for its 9th straight win against a solid Kent State team and will not have an easy time of it but, in the end, The Owls talent, depth and speed should prevail. Temple comes into this game off a 56-17 win at Akron last week, while Kent arrives in Philadelphia off a much-needed bye week. As amazing as it might sound to some football pundits, Temple, which has shown dramatic growth and improvement under 4th-year coach Al Golden has a chance to go 10-2 this season.
MICHIGAN STATE (7-4) by 13 over Penn State (9-2)—This is one of those games where I just have a gut feeling Michigan State is going to fire its best shot and win with a certain degree of ease. The Nittany Lions overcame four first-half fumbles last week to finally get the win over a dramatically inferior Indiana team, 31-20, and obviously was much the best to do that. With that said, it must be noted Penn State is 9-2 only because it has played a powder puff schedule that includes the likes of Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. When it has played a good Big Ten team, it has been crushed, losing at Iowa, 21-10, and two games back at home to Ohio State, 24-7. Michigan State is a good Big Ten team and would like nothing better than to close out its season with a win that would upgrade its bowl position. My money says the Spartans will do just that.
HOUSTON (8-2) by 35 over Memphis (2-8)—A down-and-out Memphis football team that has beaten only 1-AA Tennessee-Martin and Texas-El Paso and seen its coach fired two weeks ago has gone from the frying pan into the fire for this one, after losing last week at home to UAB, 31-21. The Tigers are catching Houston coming off an upset 37-32 loss at Central Florida and in a major bounce-back mode. UCF got the money against Houston because it did one thing few teams can do—keep the ball away from Cougar quarterback Case Keenum and the explosive offense he leads. Central Florida had the ball for 39.30 of the 60-minute game against Houston and it worked. Unfortunately Memphis does not have the talent to do that and there is no way the Tigers are going to out-shoot Houston. It should be a blowout.
UL-MONROE (6-4) by 14 over UL-Lafayette (6-4)—This is the most important game UL-Monroe (6-4) has played since it became a member of the NCAA 1-A ranks in 1994. A win in this spot will guarantee the Warhawks have their first winning season since leaving 1-AA and, more than that, will more than likely get them their first-ever bowl bid. There is little question in my mind UL-Monroe will get the win and it has far more to do with talent than it does incentive. The Warhawks are a very decent football team and it must be pointed out their four losses have come at Texas, at Arizona State, at Kentucky and at Troy. Coach Charlie Weatherbie’s time has come.
Best Of The Rest
OHIO by 3 over Northern Illinois
CLEMSON by 21 over Virginia
Wisconsin by 13 over NORTHWESTERN
IOWA by 17 over Minnesota
SOUTH FLORIDA by 14 over Louisville
INDIANA by 4 over Purdue
North Carolina by 7 over BOSTON COLLEGE
VIRGINIA TECH by 21 over N.C. State
Vanderbilt by 3 over TENNESSEE
Kentucky by 7 over GEORGIA
TCU by 31 over Wyoming
*ARKANSAS by 9 over Mississippi State
Oregon State by 42 over WASHINGTON STATE
UCLA by 3 over Arizona State
STANFORD by 7 over California
LSU by 3 over MISSISSIPPI
BYU by 17 over Air Force
EAST CAROLINA by 7 over UAB
Kansas State by 6 over NEBRASKA
Texas Tech by 10 over OKLAHOMA
Baylor by 6 over TEXAS A&M
Rice by 1 over UTEP
UTAH by 24 over San Diego State
FRESNO STATE by 15 over Louisiana Tech
Colorado State by 7 over NEW MEXICO
ARIZONA by 3 over Oregon
SMU by 3 over MARSHALL
SOUTHERN MISS by 10 over Tulsa
TEXAS by 45 over Kansas
MIAMI by 20 over Duke
CENTRAL FLORIDA by 35 over Tulane
Nevada by 42 over NEW MEXICO STATE
Hawaii by 21 over SAN JOSE STATE
FLORIDA by 55 over Florida International
Army by 10 over NORTH TEXAS
TROY by 14 over Florida Atlantic
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over Arkansas State
NFL BEST BETS
These NFL best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Sunday, Nov. 22
Steelers by 28 over CHIEFS—The Steelers, who lost at home last week, 18-12, to the Cincinnati Bengals, are not going to be in a benevolent frame of mind when they take the field at Arrowhead against a Kansas City team that is coached by a fool. If Pittsburgh did not need to put itself back on track, the Steelers would still be a very tough opponent for Kansas City. The Chiefs, who on offense average but 15.8 points and 257.8 yards per game, will have the task of trying to move the ball against a Pittsburgh defense that is quick to the ball and gives up nothing.
VIKINGS by 17 over Seahawks—The Minnesota Vikings (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) are on a roll and have every single edge over the Seahawks in this one. Ageless quarterback Brett Favre has never played better—and I mean just that—and the Vikings have a chemistry on both offense and defense that is a weapon within itself. Seattle certainly has room to improve but went 0-3 in their first three games on the road this season and in this contest will be playing its second straight away game and its third road game in its last four.
PATRIOTS by 21 over Jets—The New York Jets were certainly brought back to earth last week when the fell at home to Jacksonville, 24-22. It was their second straight loss and served as a wake-up call that all that talk about the playoffs was just that—talk. New York opened the season 3-0 but has since gone 1-5, with the lone win coming at Oakland. New England beat the Jets, 16-9, at The Meadowlands earlier in the season and New England is a much better team now than it was then. Now factor into the equation the dislike Pats Coach Bill Belichick has for the Jets and the New Yorkers figure to be in for a long afternoon.
Bengals by 24 over RAIDERS—As noted elsewhere in this publication, the 7-2 Bengals are for real. Not only are they getting it done with a very sophisticated offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer, the Bengals have come up with one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 16.9 points and 325.5 yards per game—and those numbers came against some of the best the league has to offer. This is a game in which talent and discipline trumps anything the Raiders bring to the game. For the record, Cincinnati is going for its 6th straight road win.
Best Of The Rest
JAGUARS by 10 over Bills
RAVENS by 3 over Colts
GIANTS by 4 over Falcons
PACKERS by 7 over 49ers
COWBOYS by 13 over Redskins
Saints by 14 over BUCS
Cardinals by 10 over RAMS
Chargers by 7 over BRONCOS
BEARS by 4 over Eagles
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS
These college basketball best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
MICHIGAN STATE by 35 over Toledo—Toledo just lost at home to Eastern Illinois, 72-62, and now heads into East Lansing to take on a top five Michigan State team that has announced to the world it does not intend to begin this season slowly—something that has plagued it in the past. Just do the math.
Saturday, Nov. 21
Long Beach State by 12 over WIS-GREEN BAY—Long Beach State is absolutely loaded, with four starters back from last year’s 15-15 team, a top ten recruiting class and a coach (Dan Monson) who is among the best and there is no reason to think the 49ers won get it done against a rebuilding Green Bay squad.
PENN by 20 over Delaware—Penn has one of the best backcourts in the East with guards Zack Rosen and Tyler Benardini, a solid front line and the home court. The Quakers do not qualify as world-beaters but they have enough to handle a Delaware team that has its troubles on the road.
TULSA by 18 over South Alabama—This is the best Tulsa team since Tubby Smith was holding court with the Hurricane and its speed, talent and depth should provide a rather easy win over a South Alabama that is just finding its way with a host of new players.
VCU by 8 over Oklahoma—VCU is one of college basketball’s real sleepers, has one of the strongest home court bias figures in the business and will come out firing its best shot to get a little respect by beating a name team.
MOREHEAD STATE by 12 over LA-Monroe—Monroe returns all five starters from last year’s 10-20 team and will most certainly be much better this time around. That will help a little bit but Morehead State has quality talent, great coaching and the home court.
Sunday, Nov. 22
CREIGHTON by 20 over Ark-Little Rock—Creighton showed just how tough it was when it opened the season at Dayton against the best Flyer team in decades and took them right to the money before losing by 10. The Blue Jays are loaded and should have little trouble with an Arkansas-Little Rock team that simply does not have a lot of talent.
NEW MEXICO by 17 over Miami-OH—This is supposed to be a rebuilding year in Albuquerque but I don‘t buy it. New Mexico has enough talent returning from last year’s 22-12 team to give anybody trouble—and the Lobos have had an excellent recruiting years. Miami gave some indications in a season-open loss at Towson that it might be in for a long season.
Monday, Nov. 23
SAINT MARY’S-CAL by 30 over Cal Poly—It is obvious Saint Mary’s has simply reloaded again and is on track for another outstanding season and this game should be little more than a scrimmage for the Gaels against a Cal Poly team that has won just 19 games over the past two seasons.
MURRAY STATE by 23 over Florida International—Murray State has four starters back from last year’s 20-16 team, are again ready to challenge for the OVC championship and have ever single edge over a Florida International team that has little quality talent.
Tuesday, Nov. 24
WRIGHT STATE by 10 over Central Michigan—Wright State is another team that has the talent to beat most of the mediocre teams on its schedule. The Raiders showed in a narrow 74-69 loss at powerful Washington that they can stay with the best. Central Michigan is a bit of a mystery right now but the figures say Wright State by 10.
EASTERN KENTUCKY by 14 over Cal-Irvine—Eastern Kentucky fields a veteran team that is much better than last year’s 18-13 unit and should parlay its outstanding defense to an impressive win over a Cal-Irvine team that seldom wins on the road.
UTAH STATE by 30 over Idaho State—Utah State has simply reloaded again and has another outstanding basketball team. The Aggies have three big things going for them in this game. First of all, there are few tougher home courts to play on than Utah State’s home court—the 10,270-seat Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan. Then there is the simple fact Idaho State does not have the kind of talent it takes to stay with a good team such as the Aggies. Last, but not least, Idaho State is a terrible road team.
NBA BEST BETS
These NBA best bets are made several days in advance of the day they will be played and it is suggested that you reconfirm them with a toll free call to 1-800-755-2255. I reserve the right to change any of them if the situation merits. Using them is quite easy. Simply compare with projected margin of victory, compare it to the actual betting line and bet accordingly. Home team in CAPS. Legend: SU—Straight Up. ATS—Against The Spread.
Friday, Nov. 20
HAWKS by 10 over Rockets—Atlanta opened the season 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS and, despite that, still remain the most under-rated team in the NBA. The Hawks have all the edges in this one.
CELTICS by 8 over Magic—The aging Celtics are showing signs of wear and have turned up to heat to work through their recent lapses. They won’t waste anytime showing a national TV (ESPN) audience that they are not going away.
MAVERICKS by 12 over Kings—Dallas won’t mind the improving Kings a pushover but should get the win in this one. Dallas has the talent, is extremely tough at home and is playing a team that is just 1-3 on the road this season.
Saturday, Nov. 21
SPURS by 15 over Wizards—The Spurs seldom get beat at home by good teams and almost never by bad ones—and Washington qualifies in the latter category. Every year—for at least the past 15 years—this is supposed to be the one for the Wizards and it does not happen.
JAZZ by 14 over Pistons—The Utah Jazz got off to a dreadful start but seemed to wake up on their recent road trip and should have little trouble in manhandling a Detroit team that has been slowed by injuries and a genuine lack of talent.
TRAIL BLAZERS by 23 over Timberwolves—Portland is playing outstanding basketball right now and is meeting a Minnesota team that has little offense. The Timberwolves opened the season 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS and arrive in Portland averaging just 90.2 points per game
Sunday, Nov. 22
HEAT by 12 over Hornets—The Miami Heat are playing top-flight basketball right now and are meeting a New Orleans Hornets team that is in a shambles because of the stupidity of their owner. He has fired a coach the team loved, replaced him with the general manager and has destroyed the morale of what could be a good NBA team.
LAKERS by 11 over Thunder—Oklahoma City is the most improved team in the NBA and showed just how much better it is last week by handing the San Antonio Spurs their first home loss of the season. That most certainly served as a wake-up call for the Lakers who will be ready.
NO SURPRISE HERE AS 10-0 TEXAS, FLORIDA
ALABAMA, TCU RANKED 1-2-3-4 IN NCAA DEFENSE
Many give lip service to the importance of defense in college football but here the proof is in black and white. The top four teams in the BCS ratings—Texas, Florida, Alabama and TCU—are ranked 1-2-3-4 in total defense. The only other 10-0 team in the country, Boise State, holds down the 12th spot.
Of the top 25 teams in total defense, only two—Army (4-6) and Arizona State (4-6) have losing records.
Bettors tend to focus more on offense than defense but at this time of the season, when teams are battling for national honors to factor into the handicapping equation just how effective they are on defense.
For the record, I have Alabama ranked number one in my Top Ten on the basis of its defense. It is as good as I have ever seen and overall is better than that of higher ranked Texas and Florida and at least on par with TCU
Here is a list of the top 25 defensive teams in the country.
CHRIS THOMAS’S…
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
3-1 Last Week
HIT STRONG…Colorado State (-4) over New Mexico…Lobos are ragged lone wolves this year. Rams make short work of them.
HIT MEDIUM…ARMY (+2 ½) over N. Texas. Cadets have running game and the tallest player in FBS Division Football. They can control this one and win outright.
HIT LIGHT…Ohio State (-12 ½) over Michigan. Hate to exploit the Rich Rod firing countdown (yeah, right. We just want the cash.), but Michigan has nothing to answer the Buckeyes running attack. This could get ugly early!
SUNDAY ADVANCE PLAY
ARIZONA (-9) over St. Louis… Cardinals have played their best games away from home. They have too much firepower for the Rams here.
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
3-1 Last Week
HIT STRONG…Colorado State (-4) over New Mexico…Lobos are ragged lone wolves this year. Rams make short work of them.
HIT MEDIUM…ARMY (+2 ½) over N. Texas. Cadets have running game and the tallest player in FBS Division Football. They can control this one and win outright.
HIT LIGHT…Ohio State (-12 ½) over Michigan. Hate to exploit the Rich Rod firing countdown (yeah, right. We just want the cash.), but Michigan has nothing to answer the Buckeyes running attack. This could get ugly early!
SUNDAY ADVANCE PLAY
ARIZONA (-9) over St. Louis… Cardinals have played their best games away from home. They have too much firepower for the Rams here.
