Kelso Sturgeon Newsletter
There is so much going on in the world of sports betting one hardly knows where to begin, but here goes.
As far as I am concerned the most important thing that happened last week was my 200-unit sweat-it-out win by Fresno State in its 31-21 win in my Personal Best College Game of the Year. The game should never have been close after Fresno State opened up a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and was up 24-0 in the second period.
But nothing comes easily in the world of 11-to-10, where the only thing that counts is winning bets. I shall not bore you with the details of that win, other than to say the money you and I bet drove the game from Fresno -7½ to -9½ shortly before kickoff - and it was a game to sweat.
I am coming right back this week with my 200-unit Personal Best NFL Game of the Year and I most certainly expect to win it. The team I am releasing has every quantifiable edge, plus has the circumstances it is in working overtime for it. For the record, I also am releasing my 50-unit Monday Night NFL Game of the Year when the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns get it on.
Both games will be available here at www.kelsosportshandicapping.com and toll free at the office,
1-800-755-2255 early on game day. They will cost $50 each, charged to your major credit card.
Now, on to the colleges.
100-Unit College Play
I had an excellent week in the colleges last week and in addition to the 200-unit win on Fresno State on Saturday also took down the money with a 15-unit Chairman's Club release on UL-Monroe (-3) in its 33-6 win at North Texas. Best Bet Club clients went 2-1, winning with a Kansas State (+1½) in its outright 17-10 win over Kansas and with Pittsburgh (-21½) over Syracuse - a 37-10 victory.
My TV package finally had a losing week, going 1-2, winning with underdog Ohio State (+5½) in its dominating victory at Penn State, 24-7, while losing tough games I could easily have won with LSU and Oklahoma.
That leads me to this Saturday, when I will again be going for the money with another 100-unit College Blowout Game of the Week. There are 49 games on the college schedule Saturday and this game grades out with a 95% chance to cover the money. "Blowout" is not just a term. I expect this team to win by 40-45 points and to cover the number by 3-4 touchdowns.
On Friday night I am releasing my 50-unit Big East Game of the Week as West Virginia (7-2) lands in Cincinnati to take on the 9-0 Bearcats. I have very strong feelings about this game and am confident of taking down the money with my fourth straight conference game of the year play.
This one will also be available for $50 at the addresses listed above.
College Basketball Is Here
There is a full schedule of college basketball games this week, and I am ready for them. I will be releasing from 1-3 games each day - and probably more on Saturday - throughout the entire season. I have analyzed more than 325 college teams on which we will be betting and have concluded there are more good teams than we have had in years. Many of these teams will begin 2009-10 flying far below the radar and will give us the opportunity to take tremendous edges with the betting line and in the process cash some big tickets on a regular basis.
College basketball is available for $25 per day, or for the entire season for just $299, charged to your major credit card.
This is a giant profit center for bettors, so get on board early and make the money while all the edges are there.
NBA Game Of Week Friday
This past Friday night I got all the money again with my 25-unit NBA Game of the Week and will be going for another one this Friday night. Last week it was the Cleveland Cavaliers (-8) over the New York Knicks, a 101-91 winner that was never as close as the final score as the Cavaliers led by at least 20 points for much of the way.
Win this week's 25-unit NBA Game of the Week for just $25, charged to your major credit card. It will be available on my website, www.kelsosportshandicapping.com, and toll free at the office, 1-800-755-2255, mid-day Friday.
Make certain you read the articles and ads in this newsletter to improve your handicapping skills and stay up to date on all the special plays I have going this week.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Thursday, Nov. 12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 31 over Ball State
Friday, Nov. 13
Temple by 10 over AKRON
Saturday, Nov. 14
ILLINOIS by 10 over Northwestern - I don't have the slightest idea what Coach Ron Zook has done to fire up a previously hapless Illinois (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) but it's working. In their last two games the Illini have pistol-whipped Michigan, 38-13, at home and knocked off a good Minnesota team, 35-32, last week in Minneapolis. The figures say it will continue this week in this rivalry game against Northwestern (6-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) which comes into this contest off a draining 17-10 win at Iowa last week.
WISCONSIN by 13 over Michigan - This is as much a play against Michigan (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) as it is a play on Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS). Michigan seems to have fallen off the edge of the world and stands 0-3 in its last three games, with the losses coming because the Wolverines have little offense and suddenly absolutely no defense. In their last three games, losses to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue, the Wolverines have given up an average of 37.0 points per game - something heretofore unheard of for a Michigan football team.
WAKE FOREST by 9 over Florida State - Wake Forest (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is much better than its record and has all the edges in this game against Florida State (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) that has a defense that not only can't stop anybody - it can't even slow down anyone. Wake Forest has lost five games this season by a total of 13 points and should find things a bit easier against an FSU team that last week lost at Clemson, 40-24, and which has given up an average of 39.5 points in its last four games.
Western Michigan by 17 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - Western Michigan (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) certainly is no world-beater but has every edge but the home field against a winless Eastern Michigan (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) team that has reached the end of the line - a fact illustrated by its 50-6 loss at Northern Illinois last season. That loss came on the heels of a 63-27 loss at Arkansas and put the Eagles in a "what's-the-use" state of mind? This one should be just as easy as it looks.
KANSAS by 7 over Nebraska - I just have a gut feeling Kansas (5-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) is going to crank it up against a Nebraska (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that arrives in Lawrence off an unimpressive 10-3 win over Oklahoma. However, ugly or not, the win over the Sooners had to drain Nebraska physically and mentally. Against OU, Nebraska had 5 interceptions, 7 first downs and 180 yards of total offense and that won't get it done against a Kansas offense that seems ready to explode. KU opened the season 5-0 and has since gone 0-4, and this game give the Jayhawks a shot at redemption, especially after losing last week to arch-rival Kansas State, 17-10.
UCLA by 28 over Washington State - UCLA (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is battling to become bowl eligible and is not about to blow the opportunity to get another win against a Washington State (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that is nothing short of embarrassing. UCLA, which beat Washington, 24-23 last week, has played well on the road against good teams this season. Front and center now is Washington State, which averages 15.5 points and 282.6 yards on offense and gives up 35.5 points and 510.9 yards on defense in each game.
KANSAS STATE by 13 over Missouri - Who would have thought it - that Kansas State (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) just might make it to the Big 12 championship game against Texas? When Coach Bill Snyder returned to take over the helm in Manhattan, he faced a monumental rebuilding process and did not seem to have the talent to be more than competitive. The season did start slowly but the Wildcats woke up, put it all together and are playing at the highest level, standing 3-1 in their last 4 games, with the loss coming 42-30 at Oklahoma. Missouri opened the season 4-0 and then went into a state of collapse and comes into this off a stunning home 40-32 home loss to Baylor.
NORTH CAROLINA by 7 over Miami - North Carolina (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has looked like a new football team since it is healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. The Tar Heels had everybody back two games ago and won at Virginia Tech, 20-17, and repeated that form at home last week in knocking off upstart Duke, 19-6. This is now the Tar Heel team I felt was a top ten squad at the beginning of the season. Miami (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) won't be an easy out but the experience of North Carolina, especially at the skill positions, should make the difference.
Best Of The Rest
Boston College by 14 over VIRGINIA
LOUISVILLE by 10 over Syracuse
OHIO STATE by 17 over Iowa
PENN STATE by 14 over Indiana
PURDUE by 4 over Michigan State
Georgia Tech by 15 over DUKE
Kentucky by 7 over VANDERBILT
Texas by 35 over BAYLOR
Virginia Tech by 21 over MARYLAND
MISSISSIPPI by 6 over Tennessee
BYU by 55 over NEW MEXICO
Colorado by 6 over IOWA STATE
BOISE STATE by 21 over Idaho
SMU by 10 over Texas-El Paso
Stanford by 3 over USC
Arizona by 10 over CALIFORNIA
OREGON by 13 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA by 10 over Texas A&M
UTAH STATE by 17 over San Jose State
NEVADA by 6 over Fresno State
Tulane by 4 over RICE
AIR FORCE by 24 over UNLV
OREGON STATE by 10 over Washington
Florida by 7 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Alabama by 12 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL by 4 over Southern Miss
OKLAHOMA STATE by 7 over Texas Tech
LSU by 42 over Louisiana Tech
SAN DIEGO STATE by 14 over Wyoming
HAWAII by 21 over New Mexico State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 3 over Arkansas State
UL-MONROE by 35 over Western Kentucky
ARKANSAS by 7 over Troy
FIU by 10 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over UL-Lafayette
EVALUATING NFL QUARTERBACKS
It is obvious the quarterback position is key to the success of NFL teams and just how much a good one means is illustrated in this chart. Starting quarterbacks are rated from 1-32 by passing efficiency rating, followed by their team's won-lost records straight up (SU) and how they have fared in those games against the spread (ATS). The records used here are through games of Sunday, November 1. (Editor's note: some teams have changed starting quarterbacks since this data was compiled)
Rank
Quarterback
Team
Rating
SU
ATS
1.
Aaron Rogers
Green Bay
110.4
4-3
4-3
2.
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis
109.3
7-0
5-2
3.
Drew Brees
New Orleans
107.6
7-0
7-0
4.
Brett Favre
Minnesota
106.0
7-1
5-3
5.
Donavan McNabb
Philadelphia
103.2
5-2
5-2
6.
Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh
102.6
5-2
5-2
7
Matt Schaub
Houston
100.5
5-2
4-3-1
8.
Tom Brady
New England
99.9
5-2
4-3
9.
Tony Romo
Dallas
96.8
5-2
4-3
10.
Phillip Rivers
San Diego
95.9
4-3
2-5
11.
Joe Flacco
Baltimore
95.6
4-3
5-2
12.
Kyle Orton
Denver
95.5
6-1
6-1
13.
Carson Palmer
Cincinnati
89.2
5-2
4-3
14.
Matt Hasselbeck
Seattle
87.0
2-5
2-5
15.
Eli Manning
N.Y. Giants
86.4
5-3
5-3
16.
Jason Campbell
Washington
85.8
2-5
1-6
17.
Matt Ryan
Atlanta
82.4
4-3
4-3
18.
Kurt Warner
Arizona
81.5
4-3
4-3
19.
Jay Cutler
Chicago
80.8
4-3
4-3
20.
Shaun Hill
San Francisco
79.6
3-4
5-1-1
21.
David Garrard
Jacksonville
78.5
2-5
4-3
22.
Chad Henne
Miami
78.4
3-4
3-4
23.
Matt Cassell
Kansas City
73.2
1-6
2-5
24.
Trent Edwards
Buffalo
73.0
3-5
4-4
25.
Marc Bulger
St. Louis
68.2
1-7
3-5
26.
Mark Sanchez
N.Y. Jets
67.9
4-4
5-3
27.
Kerry Collins
Tennessee
62.0
1-6
2-5
28.
Matthew Stafford
Detroit
61.7
1-6
2-5
29.
Jake Delhomme
Carolina
59.3
3-4
2-5
30.
Josh Johnson
Tampa Bay
50.9
0-7
1-6
31.
JaMarcus Russell
Oakland
48.3
1-7
4-4
32.
Derek Anderson
Cleveland
36.2
1-7
3-5
NFL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Sunday, Nov. 15
JETS by 7 over Jaguars - The New York Jets (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) come into this game off a much needed bye week and should have a full tank of gas for a Jacksonville (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) that last week was as straight as a string in beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-21. The Jaguars had 426 yards of total offense in that game and were still life and death to get the win, but that has been there story all season. The Jets are fresh, are playing at home and need a win if they have any hope of getting to the post season.
DOLPHINS by 13 over Buccaneers - Miami (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) is a much better team that its record indicates and it is important to note the Dolphins 27-17 loss at New England last week was much closer than the final score indicates. The fish have all the edges in this one and should be able to control the pace of the game with the most effective and powerful ground game in the NFL. Tampa Bay (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) got off the snide last week with a 38-28 win over Green Bay and, unfortunately for them, puts them in a bounce-down mode.
CARDINALS by 21 over Seahawks - The up-and-down Arizona Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) arrive back home for this game off an impressive 41-21 upset win at Chicago and seem to have enough edges to make short work of the visiting Seahawks who as this is being written are trailing the power Detroit Lions, 17-7. The first time these two teams met this season - in Seattle - Arizona took down an easy 27-3 win and there is no reason to expect a different result in this spot. Seattle is out of excuses and obviously is simply a bad football team.
Broncos by 13 over REDSKINS - Because Denver is coming off a tough Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is as much a play against the Redskins as it is a play on the Broncos. Denver needs no introduction to anyone. It is a team playing excellent defense, outstanding field position offense and under its new head coach has become one of the most physical teams in the NFL. As for Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS), the Redskins seem to be able to move the ball all over the field but have no real ability to put it in the end zone.
Best Of The Rest
Bengals by 4 over STEELERS
TITANS by 10 over Bills
VIKINGS by 17 over Lions
Saints by 9 over RAMS
Falcons by 4 over PANTHERS
Chiefs by 7 over RAIDERS
Eagles by 10 over CHARGERS
PACKERS by 7 over Cowboys
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Friday, Nov. 13
PURDUE by 15 over CS-Northridge - Purdue is loaded with its top six players returning from last year's 27-10 NCAA team but will find CS-Northridge better than its press clippings. The Boilermakers need to be ready to play in this one.
South Florida by 7 over SMU - Coach Stan Heath has done a great job in getting prime-time players to come to South Florida and you can take it to the bank this year's team is dramatically better than the one that went 9-22 last season. Heath made a major score in the off-season when he landed the best juco player in the country - Jarrid Famous, a 6-11 center who averaged 25.2 points and 13.6 rebounds per game last year at Westchester CC. SMU will be better, but not good enough in this spot.
SETON HALL by 20 over St. Peters - This is the best Seton Hall team since the early 1990s and is going to make a lot of noise this season. Coach Bobby Gonzalez will have the use of three big-time blue-chip 1-A transfers this season, including former McDonald's All-American forward, the 6-8 Herb Pope who averaged 11.1 points and 6-8 rebounds per game as a freshman at New Mexico State. St. Peters will be better, but still not good enough.
MINNESOTA by 25 over Tennessee Tech - The Golden Gophers are solid from top to bottom, are better than last year's 22-11 team, and should have little trouble against a Tennessee Tech team that is going to be forced to live and die by its 3-point game. I don't think that will work against a Minnesota team coached by Tubby Smith, a man who requires his teams play lock-down defense.
IOWA STATE by 30 over Idaho State - Iowa State returns four of five starters and 79.8% of its scoring from last season's 15-17 team and has one of the best players in college basketball in 6-10 junior forward who averaged 20.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game last year. He passed up the NBA draft to stay with the Cyclones and is a game-breaker. Idaho State is simply outclassed in this one.
Saturday, Nov. 14
DAYTON by 12 over Creighton - Dayton has its best basketball team in years, returning four of five starters and 10 of its top 11 players from last year's 27-8 team that lost to eventual national champion Kansas, 60-43, in the second round of the NCAA. The only thing that will keep this game close is the fact Creighton, which went 27-8 last year, always comes to play and it plays defense as if it had invented it.
BUTLER by 21 over Davidson - Talk about loaded. Butler returns all five starters from last year's 26-6 NCAA team and deserves all the pre-season accolades which played the Bulldogs in almost everyone's Top Ten. Davidson is in a rebuilding mode this season and will come to play but simply seems up against it in Indianapolis. We also need to mention Butler also plays defense as if it invented it.
RICE by 10 over South Alabama - The fine folks at former basketball doormat Rice are about to discover just what a great coach such as Ben Braun brings to the game. The Owls, who went 10-22 in Braun's first season, will not be world-beaters this time around but they will be better and they will come to play in every game. They are catching South Alabama, with just one starter back from last year's 20-13 team, in a rebuilding mode and should get the win.
Sunday, Nov. 15
TEXAS by 45 over Cal-Irvine - The talent is in Austin for Texas to be one of the top 2-3 teams in the country and the Longhorns under Coach Rick Barnes are never bashful about showing it. Texas, which went 23-12 last season, will come out firing in this one and will bury an outclassed UC-Irvine team that is not as good as the one that went 12-19 in 2008-09.
TULSA by 20 over Florida International - Tulsa is another team that is fielding its best squad in years and has the talent and firepower to completely dominate a Florida International team that has as little talent as any 1-A basketball team. It's going to be a rough year for first-year Coach Isiah Thomas, because the cupboard is bare.
Monday, Nov. 16
SAINT MARY'S by 8 over San Diego State - Both these teams are in a rebuilding mode and the home court is the big edge for Saint Mary's in this one. San Diego State lost four of five starters from last year's outstanding 26-10 team and picked a tough spot to try to win.
LSU by 19 over Indiana State - LSU lost much of its firepower from last year's 27-8 team but is not going to be anybody's pushover. Second-year coach Trent Johnson is just what the doctor ordered for this program and he will put a team on the floor that can compete with anyone. Indiana State should be much improved over last year's 11-21 team but doesn't have the front-line punch to get it done on the road against a team as quick and big as LSU.
Bettors' Alert…
NBA Referees Operate Under Unwritten "Fix" Rules
One certainly does not want to promote disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy who just got out of prison after serving time for fixing games and betting one them, but this guy blew the lid off last week and the league bigwigs could find no place to hide.
Donaghy spent his time in the can writing a book that was supposed to be published by Random House. It appears the book - Blowing The Whistle: The Culture Of Fraud In The NBA - will not be published by that company, which must have liability concerns. Random House said the NBA did not pressure it into not publishing the book - of course.
It is important to note that NBA players and coaches, past and present, say what Donaghy wrote is true, whether or not what the league's front office has to say.
Parts of the book have since appeared on the Internet and Donaghy confirms what bettors have suspected for a long time. Here are some of its basic allegations:
Star players do get preferential treatment and always get the benefit of the doubt.
Some referees have it in for some players and coaches and give them the shaft when they call their games.
Losing home teams will get favorable calls in hopes of keeping the games close.
The NBA front office used certain officials to make games result in the outcome it wanted and to extend playoffs.
The 2002 Western Conference finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Sacramento Kings was fixed to make sure the Lakers won.
It is easy to understand why NBA Commissioner David Stern is doing everything he can to make certain this book does not see the light of day (it still will, however), because it tells the story of the life NBA bettors have lived for years.
Stern and his cronies can make all the denials they want but game six of the 2002 Western Conference finals was so obviously fixed to make certain the Lakers won it that it stands as a monument to the arrogance and greed of those who run the game.
To jog your memory a bit, the Lakers won that game 106-102 only because the referees made it possible. Sacramento was dominating, so the officials took over and in the fourth quarter along Los Angeles shot 27 free throws and scored 16 of its last 18 points from the charity stripe.
The most outrageous call of all - and the one single call that told bettors what was happening - came late in the game when Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant elbowed and pushed the Kings Mike Bibby, and a foul was called on Bibby.
Officiating in that game was so crooked, consumer advocate Ralph Nader and some members of congress demanded an investigation, which the FBI conducted and - most certainly - found no wrong-doing.
The NBA lied and the feds said, "amen".
The Lakers returned to Los Angeles and won game seven, advancing to the NBA finals, where they again prevailed while giving the NBA the television ratings boost it desperately needed.
If anything good may come out of this unpublished book, the NBA is on notice the world knows what is happening and is not going to buy it anymore.
It must be remembered that NBA players and coaches say what Donaghy has written is absolutely true - that they or fellow players have been through it all.
Kevin McHale, a former Boston Celtic great and now an NBA analyst for TNT, says he remembers is first year with playing on the Celtic team that featured Larry Bird.
"I got up to do what I think is a good block, and they blow the whistle," McHale said. "They yell, 'foul on number 32". I said, '32? You mean 33? The foul was actually on Bird and the referee says to me, "You want Larry to have three or you to have one? I said, my foul."
The spotlight is on these folks. Now, let's see what happens because of the story that just won't go away.
NBA BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Friday, Nov. 13
MAGIC by 15 over Nets - One of the NBA's best meets one of the league's worst in this one and there is no reason to think Orland will not dominate. The Nets opened the season 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS and have been losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.
NUGGETS by 7 over Lakers - There is plenty of evidence that these two teams are dead-even in every aspect of the game and the host Nuggets must get the nod in this one. The game is on ESPN and that means it will be show time for the Nuggets who don't get the exposure the Lakers receive.
Saturday, Nov. 14
HAWKS by 8 over Hornets - My figures say Atlanta is one of the most under-rated teams in the NBA and have it all going for them against a Hornets team that has not done much yet to impress anybody. For certain, linemakers have not yet caught up with the Hawks and that means we will once again get an edge with the numbers. Atlanta opened 5-1 ATS and just keeps rolling.
HEAT by 14 over Nets - The hapless Nets are playing back-to-back on the road and are facing a Miami team that has proved to be very tough at home. Until New Jersey gets some of its key players back from injury, the Nets are going to get their heads handed to them at home and on the road.
BUCKS by 9 over Warriors - Milwaukee has done nothing spectacular this season but the Bucks are coming to play every night and they are playing outstanding defense, giving up 90.7 points per game. Defense will be a big edge in this one, since the Warriors don't even know how to spell the word.
Sunday, Nov. 15
THUNDER by 7 over Clippers - The Thunder is showing signs of life, obviously is one of the most improved teams in the NBA and matches up perfectly with an up-and-down Clippers team that seems to be performing with a high degree of disinterest. For certain Oklahoma City will come to play.
There is so much going on in the world of sports betting one hardly knows where to begin, but here goes.
As far as I am concerned the most important thing that happened last week was my 200-unit sweat-it-out win by Fresno State in its 31-21 win in my Personal Best College Game of the Year. The game should never have been close after Fresno State opened up a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and was up 24-0 in the second period.
But nothing comes easily in the world of 11-to-10, where the only thing that counts is winning bets. I shall not bore you with the details of that win, other than to say the money you and I bet drove the game from Fresno -7½ to -9½ shortly before kickoff - and it was a game to sweat.
I am coming right back this week with my 200-unit Personal Best NFL Game of the Year and I most certainly expect to win it. The team I am releasing has every quantifiable edge, plus has the circumstances it is in working overtime for it. For the record, I also am releasing my 50-unit Monday Night NFL Game of the Year when the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns get it on.
Both games will be available here at www.kelsosportshandicapping.com and toll free at the office,
1-800-755-2255 early on game day. They will cost $50 each, charged to your major credit card.
Now, on to the colleges.
100-Unit College Play
I had an excellent week in the colleges last week and in addition to the 200-unit win on Fresno State on Saturday also took down the money with a 15-unit Chairman's Club release on UL-Monroe (-3) in its 33-6 win at North Texas. Best Bet Club clients went 2-1, winning with a Kansas State (+1½) in its outright 17-10 win over Kansas and with Pittsburgh (-21½) over Syracuse - a 37-10 victory.
My TV package finally had a losing week, going 1-2, winning with underdog Ohio State (+5½) in its dominating victory at Penn State, 24-7, while losing tough games I could easily have won with LSU and Oklahoma.
That leads me to this Saturday, when I will again be going for the money with another 100-unit College Blowout Game of the Week. There are 49 games on the college schedule Saturday and this game grades out with a 95% chance to cover the money. "Blowout" is not just a term. I expect this team to win by 40-45 points and to cover the number by 3-4 touchdowns.
On Friday night I am releasing my 50-unit Big East Game of the Week as West Virginia (7-2) lands in Cincinnati to take on the 9-0 Bearcats. I have very strong feelings about this game and am confident of taking down the money with my fourth straight conference game of the year play.
This one will also be available for $50 at the addresses listed above.
College Basketball Is Here
There is a full schedule of college basketball games this week, and I am ready for them. I will be releasing from 1-3 games each day - and probably more on Saturday - throughout the entire season. I have analyzed more than 325 college teams on which we will be betting and have concluded there are more good teams than we have had in years. Many of these teams will begin 2009-10 flying far below the radar and will give us the opportunity to take tremendous edges with the betting line and in the process cash some big tickets on a regular basis.
College basketball is available for $25 per day, or for the entire season for just $299, charged to your major credit card.
This is a giant profit center for bettors, so get on board early and make the money while all the edges are there.
NBA Game Of Week Friday
This past Friday night I got all the money again with my 25-unit NBA Game of the Week and will be going for another one this Friday night. Last week it was the Cleveland Cavaliers (-8) over the New York Knicks, a 101-91 winner that was never as close as the final score as the Cavaliers led by at least 20 points for much of the way.
Win this week's 25-unit NBA Game of the Week for just $25, charged to your major credit card. It will be available on my website, www.kelsosportshandicapping.com, and toll free at the office, 1-800-755-2255, mid-day Friday.
Make certain you read the articles and ads in this newsletter to improve your handicapping skills and stay up to date on all the special plays I have going this week.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Thursday, Nov. 12
NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 31 over Ball State
Friday, Nov. 13
Temple by 10 over AKRON
Saturday, Nov. 14
ILLINOIS by 10 over Northwestern - I don't have the slightest idea what Coach Ron Zook has done to fire up a previously hapless Illinois (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) but it's working. In their last two games the Illini have pistol-whipped Michigan, 38-13, at home and knocked off a good Minnesota team, 35-32, last week in Minneapolis. The figures say it will continue this week in this rivalry game against Northwestern (6-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) which comes into this contest off a draining 17-10 win at Iowa last week.
WISCONSIN by 13 over Michigan - This is as much a play against Michigan (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) as it is a play on Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS). Michigan seems to have fallen off the edge of the world and stands 0-3 in its last three games, with the losses coming because the Wolverines have little offense and suddenly absolutely no defense. In their last three games, losses to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue, the Wolverines have given up an average of 37.0 points per game - something heretofore unheard of for a Michigan football team.
WAKE FOREST by 9 over Florida State - Wake Forest (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is much better than its record and has all the edges in this game against Florida State (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) that has a defense that not only can't stop anybody - it can't even slow down anyone. Wake Forest has lost five games this season by a total of 13 points and should find things a bit easier against an FSU team that last week lost at Clemson, 40-24, and which has given up an average of 39.5 points in its last four games.
Western Michigan by 17 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - Western Michigan (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) certainly is no world-beater but has every edge but the home field against a winless Eastern Michigan (0-9 SU, 3-6 ATS) team that has reached the end of the line - a fact illustrated by its 50-6 loss at Northern Illinois last season. That loss came on the heels of a 63-27 loss at Arkansas and put the Eagles in a "what's-the-use" state of mind? This one should be just as easy as it looks.
KANSAS by 7 over Nebraska - I just have a gut feeling Kansas (5-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) is going to crank it up against a Nebraska (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that arrives in Lawrence off an unimpressive 10-3 win over Oklahoma. However, ugly or not, the win over the Sooners had to drain Nebraska physically and mentally. Against OU, Nebraska had 5 interceptions, 7 first downs and 180 yards of total offense and that won't get it done against a Kansas offense that seems ready to explode. KU opened the season 5-0 and has since gone 0-4, and this game give the Jayhawks a shot at redemption, especially after losing last week to arch-rival Kansas State, 17-10.
UCLA by 28 over Washington State - UCLA (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is battling to become bowl eligible and is not about to blow the opportunity to get another win against a Washington State (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS) team that is nothing short of embarrassing. UCLA, which beat Washington, 24-23 last week, has played well on the road against good teams this season. Front and center now is Washington State, which averages 15.5 points and 282.6 yards on offense and gives up 35.5 points and 510.9 yards on defense in each game.
KANSAS STATE by 13 over Missouri - Who would have thought it - that Kansas State (6-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) just might make it to the Big 12 championship game against Texas? When Coach Bill Snyder returned to take over the helm in Manhattan, he faced a monumental rebuilding process and did not seem to have the talent to be more than competitive. The season did start slowly but the Wildcats woke up, put it all together and are playing at the highest level, standing 3-1 in their last 4 games, with the loss coming 42-30 at Oklahoma. Missouri opened the season 4-0 and then went into a state of collapse and comes into this off a stunning home 40-32 home loss to Baylor.
NORTH CAROLINA by 7 over Miami - North Carolina (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) has looked like a new football team since it is healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. The Tar Heels had everybody back two games ago and won at Virginia Tech, 20-17, and repeated that form at home last week in knocking off upstart Duke, 19-6. This is now the Tar Heel team I felt was a top ten squad at the beginning of the season. Miami (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) won't be an easy out but the experience of North Carolina, especially at the skill positions, should make the difference.
Best Of The Rest
Boston College by 14 over VIRGINIA
LOUISVILLE by 10 over Syracuse
OHIO STATE by 17 over Iowa
PENN STATE by 14 over Indiana
PURDUE by 4 over Michigan State
Georgia Tech by 15 over DUKE
Kentucky by 7 over VANDERBILT
Texas by 35 over BAYLOR
Virginia Tech by 21 over MARYLAND
MISSISSIPPI by 6 over Tennessee
BYU by 55 over NEW MEXICO
Colorado by 6 over IOWA STATE
BOISE STATE by 21 over Idaho
SMU by 10 over Texas-El Paso
Stanford by 3 over USC
Arizona by 10 over CALIFORNIA
OREGON by 13 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA by 10 over Texas A&M
UTAH STATE by 17 over San Jose State
NEVADA by 6 over Fresno State
Tulane by 4 over RICE
AIR FORCE by 24 over UNLV
OREGON STATE by 10 over Washington
Florida by 7 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Alabama by 12 over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL by 4 over Southern Miss
OKLAHOMA STATE by 7 over Texas Tech
LSU by 42 over Louisiana Tech
SAN DIEGO STATE by 14 over Wyoming
HAWAII by 21 over New Mexico State
FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 3 over Arkansas State
UL-MONROE by 35 over Western Kentucky
ARKANSAS by 7 over Troy
FIU by 10 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 13 over UL-Lafayette
EVALUATING NFL QUARTERBACKS
It is obvious the quarterback position is key to the success of NFL teams and just how much a good one means is illustrated in this chart. Starting quarterbacks are rated from 1-32 by passing efficiency rating, followed by their team's won-lost records straight up (SU) and how they have fared in those games against the spread (ATS). The records used here are through games of Sunday, November 1. (Editor's note: some teams have changed starting quarterbacks since this data was compiled)
Rank
Quarterback
Team
Rating
SU
ATS
1.
Aaron Rogers
Green Bay
110.4
4-3
4-3
2.
Peyton Manning
Indianapolis
109.3
7-0
5-2
3.
Drew Brees
New Orleans
107.6
7-0
7-0
4.
Brett Favre
Minnesota
106.0
7-1
5-3
5.
Donavan McNabb
Philadelphia
103.2
5-2
5-2
6.
Ben Roethlisberger
Pittsburgh
102.6
5-2
5-2
7
Matt Schaub
Houston
100.5
5-2
4-3-1
8.
Tom Brady
New England
99.9
5-2
4-3
9.
Tony Romo
Dallas
96.8
5-2
4-3
10.
Phillip Rivers
San Diego
95.9
4-3
2-5
11.
Joe Flacco
Baltimore
95.6
4-3
5-2
12.
Kyle Orton
Denver
95.5
6-1
6-1
13.
Carson Palmer
Cincinnati
89.2
5-2
4-3
14.
Matt Hasselbeck
Seattle
87.0
2-5
2-5
15.
Eli Manning
N.Y. Giants
86.4
5-3
5-3
16.
Jason Campbell
Washington
85.8
2-5
1-6
17.
Matt Ryan
Atlanta
82.4
4-3
4-3
18.
Kurt Warner
Arizona
81.5
4-3
4-3
19.
Jay Cutler
Chicago
80.8
4-3
4-3
20.
Shaun Hill
San Francisco
79.6
3-4
5-1-1
21.
David Garrard
Jacksonville
78.5
2-5
4-3
22.
Chad Henne
Miami
78.4
3-4
3-4
23.
Matt Cassell
Kansas City
73.2
1-6
2-5
24.
Trent Edwards
Buffalo
73.0
3-5
4-4
25.
Marc Bulger
St. Louis
68.2
1-7
3-5
26.
Mark Sanchez
N.Y. Jets
67.9
4-4
5-3
27.
Kerry Collins
Tennessee
62.0
1-6
2-5
28.
Matthew Stafford
Detroit
61.7
1-6
2-5
29.
Jake Delhomme
Carolina
59.3
3-4
2-5
30.
Josh Johnson
Tampa Bay
50.9
0-7
1-6
31.
JaMarcus Russell
Oakland
48.3
1-7
4-4
32.
Derek Anderson
Cleveland
36.2
1-7
3-5
NFL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Sunday, Nov. 15
JETS by 7 over Jaguars - The New York Jets (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) come into this game off a much needed bye week and should have a full tank of gas for a Jacksonville (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) that last week was as straight as a string in beating the Kansas City Chiefs 24-21. The Jaguars had 426 yards of total offense in that game and were still life and death to get the win, but that has been there story all season. The Jets are fresh, are playing at home and need a win if they have any hope of getting to the post season.
DOLPHINS by 13 over Buccaneers - Miami (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) is a much better team that its record indicates and it is important to note the Dolphins 27-17 loss at New England last week was much closer than the final score indicates. The fish have all the edges in this one and should be able to control the pace of the game with the most effective and powerful ground game in the NFL. Tampa Bay (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) got off the snide last week with a 38-28 win over Green Bay and, unfortunately for them, puts them in a bounce-down mode.
CARDINALS by 21 over Seahawks - The up-and-down Arizona Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) arrive back home for this game off an impressive 41-21 upset win at Chicago and seem to have enough edges to make short work of the visiting Seahawks who as this is being written are trailing the power Detroit Lions, 17-7. The first time these two teams met this season - in Seattle - Arizona took down an easy 27-3 win and there is no reason to expect a different result in this spot. Seattle is out of excuses and obviously is simply a bad football team.
Broncos by 13 over REDSKINS - Because Denver is coming off a tough Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is as much a play against the Redskins as it is a play on the Broncos. Denver needs no introduction to anyone. It is a team playing excellent defense, outstanding field position offense and under its new head coach has become one of the most physical teams in the NFL. As for Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS), the Redskins seem to be able to move the ball all over the field but have no real ability to put it in the end zone.
Best Of The Rest
Bengals by 4 over STEELERS
TITANS by 10 over Bills
VIKINGS by 17 over Lions
Saints by 9 over RAMS
Falcons by 4 over PANTHERS
Chiefs by 7 over RAIDERS
Eagles by 10 over CHARGERS
PACKERS by 7 over Cowboys
COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Friday, Nov. 13
PURDUE by 15 over CS-Northridge - Purdue is loaded with its top six players returning from last year's 27-10 NCAA team but will find CS-Northridge better than its press clippings. The Boilermakers need to be ready to play in this one.
South Florida by 7 over SMU - Coach Stan Heath has done a great job in getting prime-time players to come to South Florida and you can take it to the bank this year's team is dramatically better than the one that went 9-22 last season. Heath made a major score in the off-season when he landed the best juco player in the country - Jarrid Famous, a 6-11 center who averaged 25.2 points and 13.6 rebounds per game last year at Westchester CC. SMU will be better, but not good enough in this spot.
SETON HALL by 20 over St. Peters - This is the best Seton Hall team since the early 1990s and is going to make a lot of noise this season. Coach Bobby Gonzalez will have the use of three big-time blue-chip 1-A transfers this season, including former McDonald's All-American forward, the 6-8 Herb Pope who averaged 11.1 points and 6-8 rebounds per game as a freshman at New Mexico State. St. Peters will be better, but still not good enough.
MINNESOTA by 25 over Tennessee Tech - The Golden Gophers are solid from top to bottom, are better than last year's 22-11 team, and should have little trouble against a Tennessee Tech team that is going to be forced to live and die by its 3-point game. I don't think that will work against a Minnesota team coached by Tubby Smith, a man who requires his teams play lock-down defense.
IOWA STATE by 30 over Idaho State - Iowa State returns four of five starters and 79.8% of its scoring from last season's 15-17 team and has one of the best players in college basketball in 6-10 junior forward who averaged 20.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game last year. He passed up the NBA draft to stay with the Cyclones and is a game-breaker. Idaho State is simply outclassed in this one.
Saturday, Nov. 14
DAYTON by 12 over Creighton - Dayton has its best basketball team in years, returning four of five starters and 10 of its top 11 players from last year's 27-8 team that lost to eventual national champion Kansas, 60-43, in the second round of the NCAA. The only thing that will keep this game close is the fact Creighton, which went 27-8 last year, always comes to play and it plays defense as if it had invented it.
BUTLER by 21 over Davidson - Talk about loaded. Butler returns all five starters from last year's 26-6 NCAA team and deserves all the pre-season accolades which played the Bulldogs in almost everyone's Top Ten. Davidson is in a rebuilding mode this season and will come to play but simply seems up against it in Indianapolis. We also need to mention Butler also plays defense as if it invented it.
RICE by 10 over South Alabama - The fine folks at former basketball doormat Rice are about to discover just what a great coach such as Ben Braun brings to the game. The Owls, who went 10-22 in Braun's first season, will not be world-beaters this time around but they will be better and they will come to play in every game. They are catching South Alabama, with just one starter back from last year's 20-13 team, in a rebuilding mode and should get the win.
Sunday, Nov. 15
TEXAS by 45 over Cal-Irvine - The talent is in Austin for Texas to be one of the top 2-3 teams in the country and the Longhorns under Coach Rick Barnes are never bashful about showing it. Texas, which went 23-12 last season, will come out firing in this one and will bury an outclassed UC-Irvine team that is not as good as the one that went 12-19 in 2008-09.
TULSA by 20 over Florida International - Tulsa is another team that is fielding its best squad in years and has the talent and firepower to completely dominate a Florida International team that has as little talent as any 1-A basketball team. It's going to be a rough year for first-year Coach Isiah Thomas, because the cupboard is bare.
Monday, Nov. 16
SAINT MARY'S by 8 over San Diego State - Both these teams are in a rebuilding mode and the home court is the big edge for Saint Mary's in this one. San Diego State lost four of five starters from last year's outstanding 26-10 team and picked a tough spot to try to win.
LSU by 19 over Indiana State - LSU lost much of its firepower from last year's 27-8 team but is not going to be anybody's pushover. Second-year coach Trent Johnson is just what the doctor ordered for this program and he will put a team on the floor that can compete with anyone. Indiana State should be much improved over last year's 11-21 team but doesn't have the front-line punch to get it done on the road against a team as quick and big as LSU.
Bettors' Alert…
NBA Referees Operate Under Unwritten "Fix" Rules
One certainly does not want to promote disgraced NBA referee Tim Donaghy who just got out of prison after serving time for fixing games and betting one them, but this guy blew the lid off last week and the league bigwigs could find no place to hide.
Donaghy spent his time in the can writing a book that was supposed to be published by Random House. It appears the book - Blowing The Whistle: The Culture Of Fraud In The NBA - will not be published by that company, which must have liability concerns. Random House said the NBA did not pressure it into not publishing the book - of course.
It is important to note that NBA players and coaches, past and present, say what Donaghy wrote is true, whether or not what the league's front office has to say.
Parts of the book have since appeared on the Internet and Donaghy confirms what bettors have suspected for a long time. Here are some of its basic allegations:
Star players do get preferential treatment and always get the benefit of the doubt.
Some referees have it in for some players and coaches and give them the shaft when they call their games.
Losing home teams will get favorable calls in hopes of keeping the games close.
The NBA front office used certain officials to make games result in the outcome it wanted and to extend playoffs.
The 2002 Western Conference finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Sacramento Kings was fixed to make sure the Lakers won.
It is easy to understand why NBA Commissioner David Stern is doing everything he can to make certain this book does not see the light of day (it still will, however), because it tells the story of the life NBA bettors have lived for years.
Stern and his cronies can make all the denials they want but game six of the 2002 Western Conference finals was so obviously fixed to make certain the Lakers won it that it stands as a monument to the arrogance and greed of those who run the game.
To jog your memory a bit, the Lakers won that game 106-102 only because the referees made it possible. Sacramento was dominating, so the officials took over and in the fourth quarter along Los Angeles shot 27 free throws and scored 16 of its last 18 points from the charity stripe.
The most outrageous call of all - and the one single call that told bettors what was happening - came late in the game when Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant elbowed and pushed the Kings Mike Bibby, and a foul was called on Bibby.
Officiating in that game was so crooked, consumer advocate Ralph Nader and some members of congress demanded an investigation, which the FBI conducted and - most certainly - found no wrong-doing.
The NBA lied and the feds said, "amen".
The Lakers returned to Los Angeles and won game seven, advancing to the NBA finals, where they again prevailed while giving the NBA the television ratings boost it desperately needed.
If anything good may come out of this unpublished book, the NBA is on notice the world knows what is happening and is not going to buy it anymore.
It must be remembered that NBA players and coaches say what Donaghy has written is absolutely true - that they or fellow players have been through it all.
Kevin McHale, a former Boston Celtic great and now an NBA analyst for TNT, says he remembers is first year with playing on the Celtic team that featured Larry Bird.
"I got up to do what I think is a good block, and they blow the whistle," McHale said. "They yell, 'foul on number 32". I said, '32? You mean 33? The foul was actually on Bird and the referee says to me, "You want Larry to have three or you to have one? I said, my foul."
The spotlight is on these folks. Now, let's see what happens because of the story that just won't go away.
NBA BEST BETS
(Note: These selections are made days in advance of the games and Kelso Sturgeon reserves the right to change any of them should later developments make that the right thing to do. You can confirm all these selections by calling the office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255, each week)
Legend: SU - Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
Home Team In CAPS
Friday, Nov. 13
MAGIC by 15 over Nets - One of the NBA's best meets one of the league's worst in this one and there is no reason to think Orland will not dominate. The Nets opened the season 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS and have been losing by an average of 12.2 points per game.
NUGGETS by 7 over Lakers - There is plenty of evidence that these two teams are dead-even in every aspect of the game and the host Nuggets must get the nod in this one. The game is on ESPN and that means it will be show time for the Nuggets who don't get the exposure the Lakers receive.
Saturday, Nov. 14
HAWKS by 8 over Hornets - My figures say Atlanta is one of the most under-rated teams in the NBA and have it all going for them against a Hornets team that has not done much yet to impress anybody. For certain, linemakers have not yet caught up with the Hawks and that means we will once again get an edge with the numbers. Atlanta opened 5-1 ATS and just keeps rolling.
HEAT by 14 over Nets - The hapless Nets are playing back-to-back on the road and are facing a Miami team that has proved to be very tough at home. Until New Jersey gets some of its key players back from injury, the Nets are going to get their heads handed to them at home and on the road.
BUCKS by 9 over Warriors - Milwaukee has done nothing spectacular this season but the Bucks are coming to play every night and they are playing outstanding defense, giving up 90.7 points per game. Defense will be a big edge in this one, since the Warriors don't even know how to spell the word.
Sunday, Nov. 15
THUNDER by 7 over Clippers - The Thunder is showing signs of life, obviously is one of the most improved teams in the NBA and matches up perfectly with an up-and-down Clippers team that seems to be performing with a high degree of disinterest. For certain Oklahoma City will come to play.
HI,
I am new to the forum but have read it daily for about a month. Great insights and sharing of information is tremendously generous. I will share whatever information/newsletters I receive also. Question , are there college basketball newsletters as there are for college and pro football as shared on this thread? Or are they included with College and pro FB newsletters. thank you, Coach T
I am new to the forum but have read it daily for about a month. Great insights and sharing of information is tremendously generous. I will share whatever information/newsletters I receive also. Question , are there college basketball newsletters as there are for college and pro football as shared on this thread? Or are they included with College and pro FB newsletters. thank you, Coach T
College Basketball newsletter Question?
HI,
I am new to the forum but have read it daily for about a month. Great insights and sharing of information is tremendously generous. I will share whatever information/newsletters I receive also. Question , are there college basketball newsletters as there are for college and pro football as shared on this thread? Or are they included with College and pro FB newsletters. thank you, Coach T
HI,
I am new to the forum but have read it daily for about a month. Great insights and sharing of information is tremendously generous. I will share whatever information/newsletters I receive also. Question , are there college basketball newsletters as there are for college and pro football as shared on this thread? Or are they included with College and pro FB newsletters. thank you, Coach T
LOGICAL APPROACH
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 11 Games through November 16, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Notre Dame + 7 over PITTSBURGH - The heat is on Notre Dame coach Weis whose job was thought to be in jeopardy if the Irish did not win at least 9 game. One more loss and that cannot occur and the program is at a low point after losing to Navy at home for the second straight time. Pitt has had a very solid season and could make a BCS Bowl by winning the Big East. But their two toughest conference games are up next, after a week of rest. Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule and has the talent to not just compete with Pitt but to also pull the upset. Notre Dame has either won or stayed within a TD of Pitt in each of their 6 meetings dating back to 2001. Although a game against Notre Dame is generally a key contest, Pitt has its sights set on a loftier prize and may be caught off guard by what will be an inspired and intense effort from the Irish as QB Clausen has a big game. Notre Dame wins 34-27.
Other Featured College Selections
WISCONSIN - 8 over Michigan - Michigan's promising 4-0 start has turned ugly as the Wolverines have now lost 5 of 6 and need a win here or over arch rival Ohio State to become Bowl eligible. Wisconsin was flat in last week's win over Indiana that followed their signature win over Purdue, 37-0, a week earlier. Purdue upset Michigan last week, rallying from behind against what has been a very weak Michigan defense that has been ineffective against both the run and the pass. The Michigan offense has also lacked consistency since their fast start. In coach Rodriguez' second season we are seeing the lack of depth needed for his style of play and that plays into the strength of a very physical Wisconsin team that is fundamentally sound. Wisky has rushed for over 250 yards 4 times. Wisconsin wears down the Michigan defense. Wisconsin wins 33-17.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE + 8 ½ over Clemson - Clemson is rolling towards their first ACC Title game and controls their own fate. They may be better than their 6-3 record as their losses have been by 3, 4 and 3 points. NC State ended a 4 game losing streak with a win over Maryland, one of the teams that defeated Clemson earlier. State has been solid on offense but Clemson has the better defense. Overall the stats are not significantly different. Clemson has controlled the recent series winning 5 straight and 7 of 10. But under former BC coach O'brien State continues to show improvement in his third season. Both teams have star playmakers on offense although Clemson RB Spiller was banged up last week but is probable here. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Clemson as the pressure of an ACC Title mounts. They have lost 2 of their 3 road games and needed OT for their lone road, at Miami. Clemson wins but by just 27-24.
KANSAS + 3 ½ over Nebraska - After starting 5-0 Kansas has dropped 4 in a row. To be fair, 3 of them have been on the road and the fourth was at home to Oklahoma. The Jayhawks play their final home game this week and face a Nebraska team that has been strong on defense all season but has seen their offense regress. Neither team has an impressive win this season although Nebraska did beat Oklahoma 10-3 at home last week despite being outgained 325-180. In Kansas' 35-13 loss to OU the yards were closer, with OU winning that battle 337-305. KU has the better QB but they lack a true running game. Nebraska is playing just their fourth road game and were not impressive in winning at Missouri or Baylor. Two years ago KU routed Nebraska 76-39 on this field which was avenged by the Huskers 45-35 last season in Lincoln. This game should be lower scoring with KU QB Reesing being the difference maker. Kansas wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 16 over Toledo (Wed)
Bowling Green - 3 over MIAMI OHIO (Thurs)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 17 over Ball State (Thurs)
West Virginia + 8 ½ over CINCINNATI (Fri)
Northwestern + 5 ½ over ILLINOIS
Iowa + 16 over OHIO STATE
PURDUE + 2 ½ over Michigan State
Florida State + 5 over WAKE FOREST
Tennessee + 4 ½ over MISSISSIPPI
Byu - 27 over NEW MEXICO
MEMPHIS + 1 ½ over Uab
IOWA STATE - 5 over Colorado
Utep + 8 ½ over SMU
CALIFORNIA Pick 'em over Arizona
Missouri - 1 over KANSAS STATE
San Jose State + 12 ½ over UTAH STATE
Fresno State + 7 over NEVADA
Alabama - 11 ½ over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL + 3 over Southern Miss
Utah + 20 over TCU
Auburn + 4 ½ over GEORGIA
Houston - 5 ½ over CENTRAL FLORIDA
FLORIDA ATLANTIC + 3 over Arkansas State
Troy + 14 over ARKANSAS
The Rest (Leans)
Ohio U + 1 ½ over BUFFALO (Tues)
RUTGERS + 1 over South Florida (Thurs)
AKRON + 4 over Temple (Fri)
VIRGINIA + 4 over Boston College
LOUISVILLE - 7 over Syracuse
PENN STATE - 25 ½ over Indiana
DUKE + 12 ½ over Georgia Tech
Kentucky - 3 over VANDERBILT
BAYLOR + 23 ½ over Texas
MARYLAND + 17 ½ over Virginia Tech
West. Michigan - 11 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WASHINGTON STATE + 18 over Ucla
BOISE STATE - 31 ½ over Idaho
USC - 10 over Stanford
OREGON - 17 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA - 20 ½ over Texas A&M
RICE - 2 ½ over Tulane
AIR FORCE - 17 over Unlv
OREGON STATE - 12 over Washington
Florida - 15 ½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
Miami Fla - 3 over NORTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA STATE - 3 ½ over Texas Tech
Louisiana Tech + 24 ½ over LSU
SAN DIEGO STATE - 7 over Wyoming
HAWAII - 20 ½ over New Mexico State
UL MONROE - 20 ½ over Western Kentucky
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - 2 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over UL Lafayette
TULSA - 5 ½ over East Carolina (Sun)
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY + 3 over Dallas - The Packers have to be embarrassed after being the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season. The offensive line continues to struggled to protect QB Rodgers who's now been sacked 37 times. Ouch. Dallas is playing well and got a key Divisional win Sunday night in Philly. They have another Divisional game on deck against Washington. This is a classic letdown spot for the Cowboys and a solid spot for the Packers to show they are more of a good team than a bad one. Defensively the Pack is allowing 293 ypg (# 4), nearly 60 ypg fewer than Dallas. The Cowboys are a solid but flawed team and after 4 strong efforts a sub-par effort can be expected, especially in the second of two straight road games. Green Bay is a better team than they've shown in their past 2 games and have the talent, on both sides of the ball, to reverse their recent slide. Green Bay wins 27-24.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
N Y JETS - 6 ½ over Jacksonville - The Jets are rested and have several key fundamental edges over Jacksonville. They have a better running game and play better rush defense. They have the better overall defense and the better turnover margin. All 4 of their wins have been by at least a TD. They have a tough game at New England next week so they cannot afford to let this winnable game get away. Off of their Divisional loss to Miami and with the week of rest the Jets should not be looking ahead. Their defense is # 2 in the league (273 ypg) and # 4 in points allowed (16.8 per game). Jacksonville is being outscored on the road by 13 points per game. The Jags do have a solid running game but the Jets allow a league low 4.61 yards per play. The Jets have also played an overall tougher schedule. N Y Jets win 27-13.
CAROLINA + 1 over Atlanta - These are two evenly matched teams although Atlanta is enjoying the better season. Carolina's running game has emerged, averaging 208 yards per game over the last 4 games after averaging just 97 ypg in their first 4 contest. That's been an area in which Atlanta has struggled recently on defense, although their own rushing offense has been effective. Atlanta won the earlier meeting 28-20 despite being outgained by the Panthers. A win here draws the Panthers to within a game of Atlanta for second place in the NFC South and gives them a shot at making a run for a Wild Card. Carolina has the better defensive stats, especially vs the pass and QB Delhomme seems to have settled down in recent weeks as the ground game has limited his opportunities for mistakes. Their better defense is the key. Carolina wins 24-20.
Philadelphia + 2 ½ over SAN DIEGO - This still has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview although neither team leads their Division nor is a shoo-in for the Playoffs. But both teams are talented on both sides of the football. Both have defeated the Giants over the past two weeks with Philly's win the more impressive but also coming at home. The Eagles are off of Sunday night's loss to Dallas. San Diego's consistent lack of a running game plays into a strength of the Philly defense, making the visitors attractive underdogs. Despite their shocking loss in Oakland Philly has been a solid road team under coach Reid and they've won their other 2 road games this season. Similarly, San Diego has been vulnerable at home, losing to Denver and Baltimore already this season. Philly has shown the better rushing offense and rushing defense, usually the key to being able to dictate the flow of a game. The minor upset is no surprise. Philadelphia wins 30-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations )
TENNESSEE - 6 ½ over Buffalo
ST LOUIS + 13 ½ over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 ½ over Kansas City
New England + 3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Rest (Opinions)
SAN FRANCISCO - 3 over Chicago (Thursday)
WASHINGTON + 4 over Denver
PITTSBURGH - 7 over Cincinnati
Detroit + 17 over MINNESOTA
MIAMI - 9 ½ over Tampa Bay
Seattle + 8 ½ over ARIZONA
Baltimore - 11 over CLEVELAND (Monday)
Byes -- Houston N Y Giants
Best of the NFL Totals
Denver/Washington UNDER 36 ½
Buffalo/Tennessee OVER 41
Tampa Bay/Miami UNDER 44
Kansas City/Oakland UNDER 36 ½
Seattle/Arizona OVER 47
Philadelphia/San Diego OVER 47
Dallas/Green Bay OVER 47 ½
New England/Indianapolis OVER 50
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Florida State
KANSAS
Notre Dame
Fresno State
Pro:
CAROLINA
Philadelphia
GREEN BAY
New England
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
2009 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
Issue # 11 Games through November 16, 2009
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Notre Dame + 7 over PITTSBURGH - The heat is on Notre Dame coach Weis whose job was thought to be in jeopardy if the Irish did not win at least 9 game. One more loss and that cannot occur and the program is at a low point after losing to Navy at home for the second straight time. Pitt has had a very solid season and could make a BCS Bowl by winning the Big East. But their two toughest conference games are up next, after a week of rest. Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule and has the talent to not just compete with Pitt but to also pull the upset. Notre Dame has either won or stayed within a TD of Pitt in each of their 6 meetings dating back to 2001. Although a game against Notre Dame is generally a key contest, Pitt has its sights set on a loftier prize and may be caught off guard by what will be an inspired and intense effort from the Irish as QB Clausen has a big game. Notre Dame wins 34-27.
Other Featured College Selections
WISCONSIN - 8 over Michigan - Michigan's promising 4-0 start has turned ugly as the Wolverines have now lost 5 of 6 and need a win here or over arch rival Ohio State to become Bowl eligible. Wisconsin was flat in last week's win over Indiana that followed their signature win over Purdue, 37-0, a week earlier. Purdue upset Michigan last week, rallying from behind against what has been a very weak Michigan defense that has been ineffective against both the run and the pass. The Michigan offense has also lacked consistency since their fast start. In coach Rodriguez' second season we are seeing the lack of depth needed for his style of play and that plays into the strength of a very physical Wisconsin team that is fundamentally sound. Wisky has rushed for over 250 yards 4 times. Wisconsin wears down the Michigan defense. Wisconsin wins 33-17.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE + 8 ½ over Clemson - Clemson is rolling towards their first ACC Title game and controls their own fate. They may be better than their 6-3 record as their losses have been by 3, 4 and 3 points. NC State ended a 4 game losing streak with a win over Maryland, one of the teams that defeated Clemson earlier. State has been solid on offense but Clemson has the better defense. Overall the stats are not significantly different. Clemson has controlled the recent series winning 5 straight and 7 of 10. But under former BC coach O'brien State continues to show improvement in his third season. Both teams have star playmakers on offense although Clemson RB Spiller was banged up last week but is probable here. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Clemson as the pressure of an ACC Title mounts. They have lost 2 of their 3 road games and needed OT for their lone road, at Miami. Clemson wins but by just 27-24.
KANSAS + 3 ½ over Nebraska - After starting 5-0 Kansas has dropped 4 in a row. To be fair, 3 of them have been on the road and the fourth was at home to Oklahoma. The Jayhawks play their final home game this week and face a Nebraska team that has been strong on defense all season but has seen their offense regress. Neither team has an impressive win this season although Nebraska did beat Oklahoma 10-3 at home last week despite being outgained 325-180. In Kansas' 35-13 loss to OU the yards were closer, with OU winning that battle 337-305. KU has the better QB but they lack a true running game. Nebraska is playing just their fourth road game and were not impressive in winning at Missouri or Baylor. Two years ago KU routed Nebraska 76-39 on this field which was avenged by the Huskers 45-35 last season in Lincoln. This game should be lower scoring with KU QB Reesing being the difference maker. Kansas wins 23-17.
Best of the Rest (Opinions)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 16 over Toledo (Wed)
Bowling Green - 3 over MIAMI OHIO (Thurs)
NORTHERN ILLINOIS - 17 over Ball State (Thurs)
West Virginia + 8 ½ over CINCINNATI (Fri)
Northwestern + 5 ½ over ILLINOIS
Iowa + 16 over OHIO STATE
PURDUE + 2 ½ over Michigan State
Florida State + 5 over WAKE FOREST
Tennessee + 4 ½ over MISSISSIPPI
Byu - 27 over NEW MEXICO
MEMPHIS + 1 ½ over Uab
IOWA STATE - 5 over Colorado
Utep + 8 ½ over SMU
CALIFORNIA Pick 'em over Arizona
Missouri - 1 over KANSAS STATE
San Jose State + 12 ½ over UTAH STATE
Fresno State + 7 over NEVADA
Alabama - 11 ½ over MISSISSIPPI STATE
MARSHALL + 3 over Southern Miss
Utah + 20 over TCU
Auburn + 4 ½ over GEORGIA
Houston - 5 ½ over CENTRAL FLORIDA
FLORIDA ATLANTIC + 3 over Arkansas State
Troy + 14 over ARKANSAS
The Rest (Leans)
Ohio U + 1 ½ over BUFFALO (Tues)
RUTGERS + 1 over South Florida (Thurs)
AKRON + 4 over Temple (Fri)
VIRGINIA + 4 over Boston College
LOUISVILLE - 7 over Syracuse
PENN STATE - 25 ½ over Indiana
DUKE + 12 ½ over Georgia Tech
Kentucky - 3 over VANDERBILT
BAYLOR + 23 ½ over Texas
MARYLAND + 17 ½ over Virginia Tech
West. Michigan - 11 over EASTERN MICHIGAN
WASHINGTON STATE + 18 over Ucla
BOISE STATE - 31 ½ over Idaho
USC - 10 over Stanford
OREGON - 17 over Arizona State
OKLAHOMA - 20 ½ over Texas A&M
RICE - 2 ½ over Tulane
AIR FORCE - 17 over Unlv
OREGON STATE - 12 over Washington
Florida - 15 ½ over SOUTH CAROLINA
Miami Fla - 3 over NORTH CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA STATE - 3 ½ over Texas Tech
Louisiana Tech + 24 ½ over LSU
SAN DIEGO STATE - 7 over Wyoming
HAWAII - 20 ½ over New Mexico State
UL MONROE - 20 ½ over Western Kentucky
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL - 2 over North Texas
MIDDLE TENNESSEE - 12 over UL Lafayette
TULSA - 5 ½ over East Carolina (Sun)
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY + 3 over Dallas - The Packers have to be embarrassed after being the first team to lose to Tampa Bay this season. The offensive line continues to struggled to protect QB Rodgers who's now been sacked 37 times. Ouch. Dallas is playing well and got a key Divisional win Sunday night in Philly. They have another Divisional game on deck against Washington. This is a classic letdown spot for the Cowboys and a solid spot for the Packers to show they are more of a good team than a bad one. Defensively the Pack is allowing 293 ypg (# 4), nearly 60 ypg fewer than Dallas. The Cowboys are a solid but flawed team and after 4 strong efforts a sub-par effort can be expected, especially in the second of two straight road games. Green Bay is a better team than they've shown in their past 2 games and have the talent, on both sides of the ball, to reverse their recent slide. Green Bay wins 27-24.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
N Y JETS - 6 ½ over Jacksonville - The Jets are rested and have several key fundamental edges over Jacksonville. They have a better running game and play better rush defense. They have the better overall defense and the better turnover margin. All 4 of their wins have been by at least a TD. They have a tough game at New England next week so they cannot afford to let this winnable game get away. Off of their Divisional loss to Miami and with the week of rest the Jets should not be looking ahead. Their defense is # 2 in the league (273 ypg) and # 4 in points allowed (16.8 per game). Jacksonville is being outscored on the road by 13 points per game. The Jags do have a solid running game but the Jets allow a league low 4.61 yards per play. The Jets have also played an overall tougher schedule. N Y Jets win 27-13.
CAROLINA + 1 over Atlanta - These are two evenly matched teams although Atlanta is enjoying the better season. Carolina's running game has emerged, averaging 208 yards per game over the last 4 games after averaging just 97 ypg in their first 4 contest. That's been an area in which Atlanta has struggled recently on defense, although their own rushing offense has been effective. Atlanta won the earlier meeting 28-20 despite being outgained by the Panthers. A win here draws the Panthers to within a game of Atlanta for second place in the NFC South and gives them a shot at making a run for a Wild Card. Carolina has the better defensive stats, especially vs the pass and QB Delhomme seems to have settled down in recent weeks as the ground game has limited his opportunities for mistakes. Their better defense is the key. Carolina wins 24-20.
Philadelphia + 2 ½ over SAN DIEGO - This still has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview although neither team leads their Division nor is a shoo-in for the Playoffs. But both teams are talented on both sides of the football. Both have defeated the Giants over the past two weeks with Philly's win the more impressive but also coming at home. The Eagles are off of Sunday night's loss to Dallas. San Diego's consistent lack of a running game plays into a strength of the Philly defense, making the visitors attractive underdogs. Despite their shocking loss in Oakland Philly has been a solid road team under coach Reid and they've won their other 2 road games this season. Similarly, San Diego has been vulnerable at home, losing to Denver and Baltimore already this season. Philly has shown the better rushing offense and rushing defense, usually the key to being able to dictate the flow of a game. The minor upset is no surprise. Philadelphia wins 30-24.
Best of the Rest (Recommendations )
TENNESSEE - 6 ½ over Buffalo
ST LOUIS + 13 ½ over New Orleans
OAKLAND - 1 ½ over Kansas City
New England + 3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Rest (Opinions)
SAN FRANCISCO - 3 over Chicago (Thursday)
WASHINGTON + 4 over Denver
PITTSBURGH - 7 over Cincinnati
Detroit + 17 over MINNESOTA
MIAMI - 9 ½ over Tampa Bay
Seattle + 8 ½ over ARIZONA
Baltimore - 11 over CLEVELAND (Monday)
Byes -- Houston N Y Giants
Best of the NFL Totals
Denver/Washington UNDER 36 ½
Buffalo/Tennessee OVER 41
Tampa Bay/Miami UNDER 44
Kansas City/Oakland UNDER 36 ½
Seattle/Arizona OVER 47
Philadelphia/San Diego OVER 47
Dallas/Green Bay OVER 47 ½
New England/Indianapolis OVER 50
Money Line Recommendations
College:
Florida State
KANSAS
Notre Dame
Fresno State
Pro:
CAROLINA
Philadelphia
GREEN BAY
New England
NOTE: All Selections are picked to win Against the Spread (ATS). Unless otherwise indicated, HOME TEAMS are in CAPS. All material is provided as news matter only and is not to be used in violation of any Federal, State or Local law(s).
CHRIS THOMAS’S…
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
THIS WEEK'S TOP HITS...
HIT THIS HARD... WISCONSIN (-8 1/2) over Michigan...Rich Rodriguez offense not ideal for tough as nails, grind it out Big 10. And, he doesn't have the players to execute it at a top level. Badgers should romp here.
HIT THIS MEDIUM...Pitt (-7) over Notre Dame. Look at Charlie Weiss. He's soft and flabby. So is Notre Dame. Navy hit 'em in the mouth and took the fight out of the Irish. Pitt at home will do the same.
HIT THIS SMALL...Stanford (+10 1/2) over USC. Cardinal is tough under Jim Harbaugh. USC offense struggles. Their reputation is from last year and the year's before, not this season. Cardinal keeps this one close enough to beat the spread.
NFL ADVANCE HIT...
Tennessee (-6 1/2) over Buffalo... Titans got their mojo back. Buffalo's just wallowing in a season gone nowhere. Should be an easy win in "Music City."
OFFICIAL FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER
THIS WEEK'S TOP HITS...
HIT THIS HARD... WISCONSIN (-8 1/2) over Michigan...Rich Rodriguez offense not ideal for tough as nails, grind it out Big 10. And, he doesn't have the players to execute it at a top level. Badgers should romp here.
HIT THIS MEDIUM...Pitt (-7) over Notre Dame. Look at Charlie Weiss. He's soft and flabby. So is Notre Dame. Navy hit 'em in the mouth and took the fight out of the Irish. Pitt at home will do the same.
HIT THIS SMALL...Stanford (+10 1/2) over USC. Cardinal is tough under Jim Harbaugh. USC offense struggles. Their reputation is from last year and the year's before, not this season. Cardinal keeps this one close enough to beat the spread.
NFL ADVANCE HIT...
Tennessee (-6 1/2) over Buffalo... Titans got their mojo back. Buffalo's just wallowing in a season gone nowhere. Should be an easy win in "Music City."
REDSHEET
NOVEMBER 14, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 11
OREGON 55 - Arizona State 24 - (10:30 EST) -- Line opened at Oregon minus 16, and is now minus 17.
Duck loss to Stanford dropped them 7 & 8 notches in the polls, & that's ridiculous, in light of
the fact that they rolled for 236 RYs & 334 PYs. And that on the heels of compiling 47 pts, 31
FDs, 391 RYs, & 613 TYs while hosting USC. That's right nearly impossible to contain,
behind the brilliance of Masoli & James. And they own the Devils, with a RY edge of 1,061-
412 in their past 4 meetings with ArizonaSt. Fact is OU is +98 pts ATS in its last 7 games,
including that 30-pt cover vs USC. Have to see bouncebacker in style.
RATING: OREGON 89
OHIO STATE 38 - Iowa 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 13, and is now minus 15½. Can't get 2
teams off more emotionally opposite extremes than these 2. Bucks have obviously shedded
their mid-season doldrums, especially in anemic stat effort vs Wisconsin, when they managed
only 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs. Brilliant display at PennSt, as they held the always
explosive Lions to 7 pts (none over the final 42½ minutes), 9 FDs, 76 RYs, & 201 PYs.
Thus, they've disposed of their last 3 opponents by a combined 107-14 score. The Hawkeyes
deflated, off snapping of 13-game run, QB Sanzi is hurting, & they can't run.
RATING: OHIO STATE 89
HAWAII 52 - New Mexico State 10 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 18½, and is now minus 18. What
a difference a QB makes, as the 'Bows were stung by the injury bug in that most crucial of
positions, for most of the season. But the return of Moniz has resulted in a pair of impressive
spread showings (18 & 15 pts), while snapping their 6-game slide with that 49-pt explosion
vs UtahSt. He has thrown for 374 & 337 yds, along with 3 & 4 TDs in those two, and
check a totally foreign 360 RYs this past week (9.7 ypr). The Aggies are allowing 35.2 ppg
over their last 31 games with a 124-10 pt deficit in their last 3 games.
RATING: HAWAII 89
WISCONSIN 40 - Michigan 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 9, and is now minus 9½. We
originally had this one as our Top Play, but the status of RB Clay tables it for now, altho he is
expected to go. But make no mistake, this Badger squad is a quality outfit, and has inched
its way into the polls, at #20 & #21. And Wisconsin is again doing it overland, which has
become their staple through the recent years. Check a 560-123 RY edge the past 2 weeks.
The Wolves have fallen apart. Five straight league losses (only 4 pts from an 0-6 Big10
record). Lost last RG by 42 pts ATS. And Badgers super in home finales.
RATING: WISCONSIN 88
Byu 60 - NEW MEXICO 13 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Byu minus 27, and is still minus 27. If it weren't for such
pesky opponents as Oklahoma & TCU, the Cougars would be averaging 44 ppg. Seem
nearly unstoppable at times, behind the leadership of QB Hall, who is in off blitzing Wyoming
for 318 PYs & 4 TDs, with just 2 incompletions in 24 attempts. By the way, the Cowboys
entered that one on a 5-game spread run, before going down by 39 pts ATS to the Coogs.
The Lobos bring a 13-game losing streak into this contest, & have been outscored by a
329-138 count this season. The 4-TD spot in this shouldn't scare anyone.
RATING: BYU 88
MIAMI 31 - Tampa Bay 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 9½, and is still minus 9½. Originally, we
called for just a 5-pt Dolphin edge in this contest, as Miami was in off no less than seven
straight emotional contests, with the added baggage of being pegged as a favorite for the
only time all season. And if anyone is interested, Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS in that
situation of late. But respected sources have assured us that the Fish will be more than
ready here. Not only are they taking on a fellow Sunshine State opponent, but their 4th
ranked rushing "O" should have little trouble with the Bay's 30th ranked rushing "D".
RATING: MIAMI DOLPHINS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): KansasSt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn - NFL: KC, NYJets, Cleveland
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): OhioSt (-13 to -15½); Louisville (-5 to -7); PennSt (-21 to -23);
FlaSt (+6 to +4½); KansSt (-1 to -2½); Rice (-1 to -2½); Ga (-3 to -4½) - NFL: Buff (+7½ to +6½); StLouis
(+15 to +14); Cleve (+11½ to +10½) - TIME CHANGES: Ariz/Cal: 7:00; Oreg/ArizSt: 10:30; NoCar/Miami:
3:30; OklaSt/TxTech: 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: Ariz RB Grigsby (shoulder) ??; BYU RB Unga (ankle) prob; Cal
RB Best (concussion) out; CFla RB Harvey (leg) & QB Hodges (ribs) prob; Cincy QB Pike (forearm) prob;
FlaAtl QB Smith (shoulder) out for season; FlaInt QB McCall (elbow) ??; FlaSt QB Ponder (shoulder) out for
season; Ga WR Greene (ribs) prob; Idaho QB Enderle (rotator cuff) prob; Ill QB Williams (ankle) ??; Iowa QB
Stanzi (ankle) doubt; IowaSt QB Arnaud (hand) prob; KY QB Hartline (knee) doubt, WR Cobb (arm) prob, &
RB Locke (knee) prob; LaTech RB Porter (leg) prob; LSU QB Jefferson (ankle) prob, but RB Scott out; Md QB
Turner (knee) doubt; NIU QB Harnish (knee) ??; NoCaro RB Draughn (shoulder) out; NW QB Kafka (leg)
prob; ND RB Allen (ankle) ??; SMU QB Mitchell (shoulder) prob; Syr DT Jones (knee) out; TxTch QB Sheffield
(foot) doubt; UCLA QB Prince (concussion) prob; Va QB Sewell (shoulder) ??; WVa QB Brown (ankle) & RB
Devine (ankle) prob; WSt QB Tuel (knee) ??; Wisc RB Clay (concussion) prob - NFL: KC RB Johnson
released; Oak RB McFadden prob; SF RB Gore (eye) prob......
POINTWISE RED SHEET
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW:
NOVEMBER 14, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 11
OREGON 55 - Arizona State 24 - (10:30 EST) -- Line opened at Oregon minus 16, and is now minus 17.
Duck loss to Stanford dropped them 7 & 8 notches in the polls, & that's ridiculous, in light of
the fact that they rolled for 236 RYs & 334 PYs. And that on the heels of compiling 47 pts, 31
FDs, 391 RYs, & 613 TYs while hosting USC. That's right nearly impossible to contain,
behind the brilliance of Masoli & James. And they own the Devils, with a RY edge of 1,061-
412 in their past 4 meetings with ArizonaSt. Fact is OU is +98 pts ATS in its last 7 games,
including that 30-pt cover vs USC. Have to see bouncebacker in style.
RATING: OREGON 89
OHIO STATE 38 - Iowa 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 13, and is now minus 15½. Can't get 2
teams off more emotionally opposite extremes than these 2. Bucks have obviously shedded
their mid-season doldrums, especially in anemic stat effort vs Wisconsin, when they managed
only 8 FDs, 97 RYs, & 87 PYs. Brilliant display at PennSt, as they held the always
explosive Lions to 7 pts (none over the final 42½ minutes), 9 FDs, 76 RYs, & 201 PYs.
Thus, they've disposed of their last 3 opponents by a combined 107-14 score. The Hawkeyes
deflated, off snapping of 13-game run, QB Sanzi is hurting, & they can't run.
RATING: OHIO STATE 89
HAWAII 52 - New Mexico State 10 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Hawaii minus 18½, and is now minus 18. What
a difference a QB makes, as the 'Bows were stung by the injury bug in that most crucial of
positions, for most of the season. But the return of Moniz has resulted in a pair of impressive
spread showings (18 & 15 pts), while snapping their 6-game slide with that 49-pt explosion
vs UtahSt. He has thrown for 374 & 337 yds, along with 3 & 4 TDs in those two, and
check a totally foreign 360 RYs this past week (9.7 ypr). The Aggies are allowing 35.2 ppg
over their last 31 games with a 124-10 pt deficit in their last 3 games.
RATING: HAWAII 89
WISCONSIN 40 - Michigan 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 9, and is now minus 9½. We
originally had this one as our Top Play, but the status of RB Clay tables it for now, altho he is
expected to go. But make no mistake, this Badger squad is a quality outfit, and has inched
its way into the polls, at #20 & #21. And Wisconsin is again doing it overland, which has
become their staple through the recent years. Check a 560-123 RY edge the past 2 weeks.
The Wolves have fallen apart. Five straight league losses (only 4 pts from an 0-6 Big10
record). Lost last RG by 42 pts ATS. And Badgers super in home finales.
RATING: WISCONSIN 88
Byu 60 - NEW MEXICO 13 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Byu minus 27, and is still minus 27. If it weren't for such
pesky opponents as Oklahoma & TCU, the Cougars would be averaging 44 ppg. Seem
nearly unstoppable at times, behind the leadership of QB Hall, who is in off blitzing Wyoming
for 318 PYs & 4 TDs, with just 2 incompletions in 24 attempts. By the way, the Cowboys
entered that one on a 5-game spread run, before going down by 39 pts ATS to the Coogs.
The Lobos bring a 13-game losing streak into this contest, & have been outscored by a
329-138 count this season. The 4-TD spot in this shouldn't scare anyone.
RATING: BYU 88
MIAMI 31 - Tampa Bay 10 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 9½, and is still minus 9½. Originally, we
called for just a 5-pt Dolphin edge in this contest, as Miami was in off no less than seven
straight emotional contests, with the added baggage of being pegged as a favorite for the
only time all season. And if anyone is interested, Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS in that
situation of late. But respected sources have assured us that the Fish will be more than
ready here. Not only are they taking on a fellow Sunshine State opponent, but their 4th
ranked rushing "O" should have little trouble with the Bay's 30th ranked rushing "D".
RATING: MIAMI DOLPHINS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): KansasSt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn - NFL: KC, NYJets, Cleveland
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): OhioSt (-13 to -15½); Louisville (-5 to -7); PennSt (-21 to -23);
FlaSt (+6 to +4½); KansSt (-1 to -2½); Rice (-1 to -2½); Ga (-3 to -4½) - NFL: Buff (+7½ to +6½); StLouis
(+15 to +14); Cleve (+11½ to +10½) - TIME CHANGES: Ariz/Cal: 7:00; Oreg/ArizSt: 10:30; NoCar/Miami:
3:30; OklaSt/TxTech: 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: Ariz RB Grigsby (shoulder) ??; BYU RB Unga (ankle) prob; Cal
RB Best (concussion) out; CFla RB Harvey (leg) & QB Hodges (ribs) prob; Cincy QB Pike (forearm) prob;
FlaAtl QB Smith (shoulder) out for season; FlaInt QB McCall (elbow) ??; FlaSt QB Ponder (shoulder) out for
season; Ga WR Greene (ribs) prob; Idaho QB Enderle (rotator cuff) prob; Ill QB Williams (ankle) ??; Iowa QB
Stanzi (ankle) doubt; IowaSt QB Arnaud (hand) prob; KY QB Hartline (knee) doubt, WR Cobb (arm) prob, &
RB Locke (knee) prob; LaTech RB Porter (leg) prob; LSU QB Jefferson (ankle) prob, but RB Scott out; Md QB
Turner (knee) doubt; NIU QB Harnish (knee) ??; NoCaro RB Draughn (shoulder) out; NW QB Kafka (leg)
prob; ND RB Allen (ankle) ??; SMU QB Mitchell (shoulder) prob; Syr DT Jones (knee) out; TxTch QB Sheffield
(foot) doubt; UCLA QB Prince (concussion) prob; Va QB Sewell (shoulder) ??; WVa QB Brown (ankle) & RB
Devine (ankle) prob; WSt QB Tuel (knee) ??; Wisc RB Clay (concussion) prob - NFL: KC RB Johnson
released; Oak RB McFadden prob; SF RB Gore (eye) prob......
POINTWISE RED SHEET
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW:
