Sports Memo would be good to get again, possibly to fade a guy who won last week.
Here are their best bet records last week and their best bet records.
Erin Rynning (L) 4-1 Overall
Brent Crow (W) 5-0 Overall (is this guy a stud or just a hot start?)
Rob Veno (L) 2-2 Overall
Teddy Covers (W) 3-2 Overall
Tim Trushel (W) 3-2 Overall
Donnie Black (L) 2-3 Overall
Fairway Jay (W) 2-2 Overall
Helmut Sports (W) 2-3 Overall
Marty Otto (W) 2-3 Overall
Andrew Lange (W) 2-3 Overall
Looks like these guys can't get any momentum outside of Crow and Rynning's hot start. Seems like they win one week and lose the next.
Here are their best bet records last week and their best bet records.
Erin Rynning (L) 4-1 Overall
Brent Crow (W) 5-0 Overall (is this guy a stud or just a hot start?)
Rob Veno (L) 2-2 Overall
Teddy Covers (W) 3-2 Overall
Tim Trushel (W) 3-2 Overall
Donnie Black (L) 2-3 Overall
Fairway Jay (W) 2-2 Overall
Helmut Sports (W) 2-3 Overall
Marty Otto (W) 2-3 Overall
Andrew Lange (W) 2-3 Overall
Looks like these guys can't get any momentum outside of Crow and Rynning's hot start. Seems like they win one week and lose the next.
Pointwise Newsletter Last Week
College Football
Rating
1, 2-0
2, 1-0
3, 1-1
4, 0-1
5, 0-2
NFL
Rating
2, 1-0
3, 0-1
4, 1-1
5, 1-0
StatFox NFL Best Bets (the 5 with writeups)
2-3
StatFox College Football(the 5 with writeups)
2-3
Powersweep College
4* 1-0
3* 2-0 (giving him Tulsa)
2* 2-1
(FYI 2 weeks ago for Powersweep)
4* 1-0
3* 0-2
2* 0-3
4* looks pretty money, others aren't close to locks.
Powersweep NFL
4* 0-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-1
FYI two weeks ago
4* 0-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-1
Looks like a major NFL fade.
College Football
Rating
1, 2-0
2, 1-0
3, 1-1
4, 0-1
5, 0-2
NFL
Rating
2, 1-0
3, 0-1
4, 1-1
5, 1-0
StatFox NFL Best Bets (the 5 with writeups)
2-3
StatFox College Football(the 5 with writeups)
2-3
Powersweep College
4* 1-0
3* 2-0 (giving him Tulsa)
2* 2-1
(FYI 2 weeks ago for Powersweep)
4* 1-0
3* 0-2
2* 0-3
4* looks pretty money, others aren't close to locks.
Powersweep NFL
4* 0-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-1
FYI two weeks ago
4* 0-1
3* 0-1
2* 1-1
Looks like a major NFL fade.
Nelly's Greensheet
RATING 5 VIRGINIA TECH (-13½) over Boston College
RATING 4 CONNECTICUT (+8½) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 ARKANSAS (+3) over Auburn
RATING 2 SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) over Kentucky
RATING 2 FRESNO STATE (-9) over Hawaii
RATING 1 MISSISSIPPI STATE (+3) over Houston
RATING 1 UNLV (+16½) over BYU
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2009
Nebraska (-2½) MISSOURI 8:00 PM
Missouri remains undefeated entering this huge Big XII North battle between top 25 teams.
Although Nebraska has a loss already it was just a one-point loss at Virginia Tech in a game
that Nebraska led most of the way . Both teams have posted great offensive numbers this
season while Nebraska has been a significantly better defensive team statistically. The
Huskers have played three Sun Belt teams at home to pad the numbers and while Missouri
did play a FCS team , the Tigers have faced three reasonably difficult games including two
away from home. Missouri has dominated this series the last two years, winning by a
combined score of 93-23. Missouri was expected to take a big step back this year in part due
to the reliance on unproven sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert. So far everything has been great
for Gabbert who has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. His size makes him a very
tough match-up for opponents and Missouri also features physically imposing receivers.
Nebraska QB Zac Lee has been efficient enough and Nebraska should have the rushing edge
in this game. Missouri was out-rushed 218-78 against Nevada in its last game but the Tigers
still won and covered on the road. Nebraska technically owns the top scoring defense in the
nation through four games and this could be an upset opportunity. Nebraska has covered in
every game and now is not the time to go-against. NEBRASKA BY 3
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2009
NEVADA (-7) Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM
The recent home/road trends for these teams should heavily favor Nevada in this key WAC
match-up between two teams that made bowl games last season. Nevada started the year 0-3
through a tough schedule but buried state-rival UNLV last week, 63-28. Though the statistics
were impressive with 559 rushing yards, it was not a complete rout, as it was a seven point
game entering the fourth quarter. Louisiana Tech also enjoyed a big night on the ground in
primetime last week with 352 rushing yards and a strong defensive showing to beat Hawaii.
Last season Nevada won by four with a late TD in Ruston despite trailing the Bulldogs nearly
the entire game. In a match-up of two teams that like to run the ball, Tech was superior last
season but it was the fourth straight loss in this series. Nevada has faced a very tough
schedule so this is a team that may be undervalued with a 1-3 record. Louisiana Tech has not
performed well away from home although the Bulldogs will catch a scheduling advantage this
week. Nevada is a difficult team to trust defensively, particularly coming off a big win so
although the Wolf Pack should win this game, covering a steep number that is a bit inflated
looks problematic against a better defensive team that also rushes well. NEVADA BY 4
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2009
West Virginia (-10) SYRACUSE 11:00 AM
The Mountaineers have turned the ball over 14 times in four games making them a risky team
to back despite impressive yardage statistics. West Virginia has out-gained every opponent
this season and in the lone loss the Mountaineers had six turnovers and still nearly won. The
loss to Auburn may not sting as much as the Tigers are 5-0 and climbing the rankings and the
win over East Carolina is looking better as well. Last season as a 22-point underdog Syracuse
gave West Virginia a tough game as the Orange actually won the yardage battle and trailed by
just one entering the 4th quarter in an eventual 17-6 loss. The Orange had seven turnovers
last week to lose at home despite also winning the yardage battle and although both QBs in
this match-up have strong completion percentages there have been far too many
interceptions. Syracuse has actually been a very difficult team to run against this season,
allowing just 91 yards per game on the ground which could make this a challenging match-up
for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has not proven it can play a clean game nor has the team
won on the road so far this season. WEST VIRGINIA BY 9
Michigan State (-4) ILLINOIS 11:00 AM
The Spartans got a huge win over Michigan last week but a once comfortable lead turned into
an OT game as the Michigan State defense has shown vulnerability. The Spartans have been
a productive offensive team through a fairly tough schedule but the defense has given up a lot
of big plays through the air. After avoiding a 1-4 start with a narrow win over its archrival this
could be a tricky spot for the Spartans. Illinois is yet to beat a FBS foe and the FCS win was
not terribly impressive. The Illini have not covered in a game and this has to be considered
one of the most disappointing teams in the nation after fairly high preseason expectations.
Illinois has had to face Penn State and Ohio State, likely the top teams in the Big Ten as well
as a undefeated Missouri team however so things could open up a bit this week. The Illinois
offense has moved the ball but scoring has proven difficult. Michigan State has had success in
this series, covering ten of the last 13 despite losing S/U last year but Illinois should face its
best match-up this week and can breakthrough for a win. ILLINOIS BY 7
VIRGINIA TECH (-13½) Boston College 11:00 AM
The Florida State game is always huge for Boston College and last week’s game was
enhanced further with the national attention brought to the match-up. BC delivered an
excellent performance getting out to an early lead then scoring late to seal the victory. The QB
situation should be settled as freshmen Dav id Shinskie delivered a solid game without costly
mistakes and the Eagles were greatly aided by the successful running game behind Montel
Harris. Coming off the big win over Miami, Virginia Tech was clearly a bit flat last week as
Duke forced a shootout in a very competitive game. Boston College has been impressive in its
home games but the lone road game featured a disastrous performance. The Hokies have
faced a far more difficult schedule and the Hokies have proven the ability to move the ball on
the ground and through the air. Even though QB Tyrod Taylor has taken his share of criticism
he has just one interception this season despite facing several quality defenses. Although BC
has delivered several excellent recent efforts in this series this should be a more favorable
situation for the Hokies and a convincing win should be in order. Boston College has been
fortunate to pick up wins the last two weeks and the Eagles could get caught in a very tough
spot this week against a talented and motivated team. VIRGINIA TECH BY 24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-22½) Eastern Michigan 11:00 AM
Though it was not easy, nor impressive, Central Michigan got a big road win last week against
the 2008 MAC champion Buffalo. Central Michigan has been solid defensively this season but
they have also faced one of the weaker schedules in the nation. That said, this is a team that
is 2-0 in the MAC and beat Michigan State while playing respectably close with Arizona in two
major conference tests. Eastern Michigan is still winless on the season and through a slightly
more difficult schedule the Eagles have been dwarfed statistically by what Central Michigan
has done on both sides of the ball. The season-ending injury to QB Andy Schmitt can not be
overstated but this is also a series that Central Michigan has struggled in despite being one of
the top teams in the conference. Three of the last five meetings have gone to OT and the
other two games in the past two years have been high-scoring burners with Eastern Michigan
winning outright as double-digit underdogs both years. There was some animosity between
the coaching staffs in the past but Eastern Michigan has cleaned house and this game will
likely not have the same meaning to the underdog Eagles. A bigger game with Western
Michigan is waiting next week so this could be a problematic spot for Central Michigan to
cover a huge spread while Eastern always plays well here. CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 16
NC STATE (-14½) Duke 3:00 PM
Russell Wilson’s incredible streak of interception Bonus Play came to an end last week, as did
the three-game winning streak for the Wolfpack. Two of those wins came against FCS
competition however and a serious comeback was needed to get the win over Pittsburgh at
home. NC State has some of the best defensive numbers in the country but with two fifths of
the games coming against lower division competition there should not be too much weight
given to the numbers. NC State has been very effective against the run but Duke will aim to
pass the ball, as they did with great success last week against Virginia Tech. The trends line
up with Duke as NC State has been an awful home favorite in recent years, going just 4-15
ATS in the past 19 and Duke has been an excellent ATS road team even though the S/U wins
have been rare. These nearby schools have played very competitive games each of the last
three years both in terms of the score and the yardage. NC State has taken the outright win in
all three of those games but it has never come easily. Duke is no longer the doormat of years
past and competitive efforts against Virginia Tech and Kansas make the Blue Devils worth a
look here against a much less impressive team. NC STATE BY 10
WAKE FOREST (-10½) Maryland 5:30 PM
Through tough schedules these teams have endured some losses but both came up with big
ACC wins last week. Maryland has produced some of the most discouraging results in the
country so far this season with only a narrow FCS win but last week the Terps came up with a
solid upset win over Clemson. Maryland did not run the ball well last week but QB Chris
Turner was very effective and the defense had by far its best effort of the year. Wake Forest
could easily be 5-0 right now as both losses came by just three points. Wake Forest is
allowing 15 fewer points per game on the season but the Demon Deacons allow nearly as
many yards. Maryland has had 15 turnovers this season which has contributed to the losses
as they have actually out-gained each of the last three opponents. Maryland RB De’Rel Scott
was lost for the season last week but there is talent in the backfield and Scott had been
fumbling this season. Last season Maryland dominated Wake Forest in a 21-0 shutout win
where the Deacons were out-gained 470-219. Maryland has had success in this series and
these teams project similarly despite the contrasting starts to the season. This is a lot of points
to lay for a team that has a poor history in the home favorite role. WAKE FOREST BY 7
VIRGINIA (-6½) Indiana 2:30 PM
Just like last season Virginia endured a very tough start to the year. The schedule was difficult
but the Cavaliers also did not play well. Last week everything came together for a stunning
upset as the defense allowed just three points and 14 yards. Even in the win Virginia did not
accomplish a great deal on offense and for the season the Cavaliers have averaged just 272
yards per game. Indiana played a very weak non-conference schedule to start 3-0 but the
Hoosiers impressed in a near-miss against Michigan two weeks ago. Ohio State proved to be
a much tougher match last week and the Hoosiers were beaten worse than the final score
even indicated. Indiana has been a decent defensive team this season which has been a bit of
a surprise and Hoosiers are rushing the ball well and getting decent enough QB play. This is
an odd non-conference match-up in the middle of the season which should favor the home
team as Indiana is coming off facing two marquee Big Ten opponents and then will face
Illinois next. The William & Mary loss looks bad but things appear to be coming together in
Charlottesville and the Cavaliers have battled commendably against three very good teams
the last three weeks. Virginia is far from an offensive force but historically this has been a
strong home team while Indiana will be in a tough road situation and the early returns do not
rate very favorably for the Big Ten. Indiana is also just 12-22-2 ATS on the road over the past
seven years and the Hoosiers have an inflated record at 3-2. VIRGINIA BY 10
MINNESOTA (-4) Purdue 2:30 PM
Although Minnesota had the ball late last week down three the Gophers were thoroughly
outplayed and it took good fortune to stay as close as they did. That makes two consecutive
home losses for Minnesota in the new stadium and the Gophers have not won convincingly all
season and Minnesota has been out-gained in four consecutive games. Purdue’s defense will
take a bit more criticism allowing nearly 30 points per game but the Boilers have played a
strong schedule and each loss has come by seven or fewer points. Through equally difficult
slates, Purdue has significantly out-produced Minnesota, particularly on the ground which was
a glaring problem area for the Gophers last week. Adam Weber came into the year as the far
more acclaimed QB but Joey Elliot has put up better numbers for Purdue and defensively
these teams are much closer than at first glance. Minnesota had a big turnover edge in last
year’s game, a game that Purdue QB Curtis Painter left with injury. Purdue has had success
in this series covering in seven of the last ten and Minnesota has not appeared capable of a
blowout and now faces a desperate team. MINNESOTA BY 3
PITTSBURGH (-8½) Connecticut 11:00 AM
While Pittsburgh has played challenging road games the last two weeks, Connecticut has
rested, coasting to an easy FCS win two weeks ago before being off last week. The Huskies
are perfect ATS this season and nearly were perfect S/U with an odd two-point loss mixed in.
Both of these Big East teams lost to ACC teams on the season and overall the yardage
production has been very similar on offense through relatively similar schedules. Both teams
allow very few points but Connecticut has done it while allowing 110 fewer yards per game.
The Huskies are among the best in the nation in several defensive categories and there has
been a constant w ith recent UConn teams and that is an emphasis on running the ball and
stopping the run. QB Zach Frazer may be able to return for this game but Cody Endres has
played extremely well in his place. Oddly the road team has cruised to a convincing win each
of the last two years of this series. Pittsburgh’s offense should be called into question to some
degree as the Panthers were badly out-gained twice this season and this is a team that has
been well on the plus side of the turnover margin so far. CONNECTICUT BY 3
NORTHWESTERN (-21) Miami, OH 11:00 AM
Miami did cover in a 24-point loss last week but it has been a very rough year for the
Redhawks. Miami is averaging just eleven points per game and there have been 18 turnovers,
the most in the nation. This will be the fourth road game in five weeks for Miami and the
Redhawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. On the other hand
Northwestern has faced an incredibly weak schedule and the Wildcats struggled against
Eastern Michigan of the MAC earlier this season. Miami has been far more productive in
terms of yards than the scoreboard has indicated so this is a team that could find itself
catching some value in the next few weeks. Against one of the weakest schedules in the
nation Northwestern i s allowing 26 points per game so Miami is likely to have some
opportunities. The Redhawks have actually covered in the last three meetings with Big Ten
teams and Northwestern has been a horrendous ATS team as a favorite over the last few
years. These teams played two years ago with a line of -5.5 and the Redhawk offense has
shown a lot more promise since QB Zac Dysert took over. These types of games tucked in
between conference clashes are always difficult for the favorite. NORTHWESTERN BY 13
KANSAS (-19) Iowa State 11:30 AM
The Jayhawks are 4-0 but the early season schedule has been favorable. Kansas has had
two weeks to prepare for this conference opener and few teams have been as good in the
home favorite role the last few years. Last season Iowa State nearly pulled off a big upset in
this match-up with a 35-33 loss in a game the Cyclones led 17-0 at one point. It was
heartbreak city for Iowa State last week as well as the tying scoring drive suffered a blocked
extra-point and a one-point loss was the result. Statistically Kansas has significant edges on
both sides of the ball although Kansas has played one of the weaker schedules of any major
conference team. Kansas can not afford to take this game lightly as the second half schedule
will present great challenges. Iowa State has struggled to stop the run and Kansas is rushing
for 209 yards per game while still possessing an experienced veteran QB. KANSAS BY 24
Alabama (-6½) MISSISSIPPI 12:00 PM
Although many rated these teams equally before the start of the season and pointed to this
game as the key decider in the SEC West, Alabama has been the vastly superior team at this
point in the season. The Tide has faced a far more challenging schedule and posted nearly 90
more yards per game on offense while allowing over 50 fewer yards per game. Ole Miss has
only allowed around eleven points per game but the Rebels were losers in their only
challenging game so far this season. Alabama is 4-1 ATS even with inflated spreads and the
lone miss was still a 26-point w in. Jevan Snead came into the season as a much more well
regarded QB but Greg McElroy has out-played him in every way so far this year for Alabama.
Mississippi has covered in four consecutive games in this series but Alabama has won each
of those games and this will be the lowest line the series has seen since 2003. Alabama is
facing a second straight SEC road game but there will be no surprises from the Rebels this
year and Ole Miss has appeared like a team that is not ready to perform when the lights are
shining the brightest. This will be the first FBS home game for Mississippi but Alabama has
handled tough road environments well. ALABAMA BY 10
TEMPLE (-14) Ball State 12:00 PM
After a perfect regular season last year Ball State is off to a 0-5 start but there have been
encouraging signs in recent weeks. The Cardinals have covered in both road games this
season and probably deserved to cover last week, leading most of the way until a frantic
fourth quarter. There have been plenty of growing pains for freshmen QB Kelly Page but he
has shown some improvement and actually has completed passes at a higher rate than
Temple QB Vaughn Charlton. Temple has won two straight games in fairly impressive fashion
but this is not a team accustomed to playing games as heavy favorites. Temple has only
averaged 22 points per game which will make a double-digit spread difficult to cover and the
big home win over Buffalo that the Owls are getting a lot of credit for featured a big turnover
advantage including scores on an interception and a kickoff. TEMPLE BY 7
Vanderbilt (-11½) ARMY 11:00 AM
Both teams are 2-3 but Army has faced a much easier schedule. The Cadets played fairly
even statistical games the past two weeks but suffered losses and last week’s loss came
painfully as a lead was extinguished late. Army has failed to cover in four straight games but
value should be back this week. Vanderbilt is 2-0 ATS on the road this season but in three
different games the Commodores have failed to reach double-digits on the scoreboard. Both
teams have very good numbers on defense but this is a match-up where Army should have a
solid rushing edge and Vanderbilt is a fairly banged up team coming off a physical defensive
battle last week. Vanderbilt has been vulnerable against the run this season and laying
double-digits on the road will be problematic in this match-up. Army has been overmatched in
a few games but this will be a tougher than expected departure from the SEC for the
Commodores. Army has been a risky team to back but will hang on here. VANDERBLT BY 6
WYOMING (-10) New Mexico 1:00 PM
It looked like it would be a tough rebuilding year for New Mexico but few envisioned this
difficult of a start for a team that is typically a perennial bowl contender. New Mexico is
allowing 434 yards per game while gaining only 295 per game. The scoring numbers are
much worse as the Lobos have averaged less than 15 points per game. New Mexico has
covered in eight of the last nine meetings in this series but despite also going through a
coaching change, Wyoming is off to a 3-2 start. New Mexico shut out Wyoming last season
but signs point towards a Cowboy revenge win this year. Wyoming has developed a solid
rushing attack this season and defensively the Cowboys have been capable even with two Big
XII opponents already through the schedule. Wyoming does enter this game off back-to-back
S/U wins as underdogs while New Mexico enters coming off its first ATS win of the year. It
was still a 20-point loss however and 21-points were scored in the fourth quarter after the
game was out of hand. Texas Tech also lost its starting QB in the game so the Lobos should
not be given much credit for seemingly staying close. WYOMING BY 17
Houston (-3) MISSISSIPPI STATE 12:00 PM
The Cougars have posted incredible num bers on offense but last week the team could not
handle the pressure of being a highly ranked favorite in an ugly loss to UTEP. Houston has
two big wins on its resume and this would be another solid win over a major conference
program. Even with two Big XII foes under its belt the Cougars have played a much weaker
schedule than Mississippi State as the Bulldogs have already played three SEC games plus a
tough non-conference tilt with Georgia Tech last week. MSU has out-gained its opponents
each of the last three weeks but there is only one win to show for it. Mississippi State has
been the clearly superior defensive team but this could be a problematic match-up as the
Bulldogs may not have the personnel to keep up in a shootout. Mississippi State will have a
significant rushing edge in this game as The Bulldogs are running for 205 yards per game.
Houston is still overvalued and Mississippi State will be a in a favorable situation as a home
underdog with the ground advantage. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7
Arizona (-2½) WASHINGTON 9:00 PM
Washington has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation but at 2-3 this is a team
that has been exposed for some serious defensive liabilities. Washington is allowing nearly
410 yards per game and the Huskies have been out-gained in each of the last four weeks
despite splitting the decisions. QB Locker has made some great plays but he is only
completing 57 percent of his passes. Arizona’s lone loss came on the road in a competitive
game at Iowa and that loss does not look too damaging at this point. Despite facing a second
straight road contest with long travel the Wildcats rebounded with an upset at Oregon State
and an off week precedes this match-up while Washington travels home after a narrow and
chaotic defeat at Notre Dame. Arizona has scored 48 points against Washington each of the
last two years and given the emergence of a reliable running game the Wildcats could put up
big numbers again this year. Washington has had far more national exposure but Arizona
could quietly emerge as one of the teams to beat in the Pac-10 and Washington is still a team
that has done plenty of losing despite coming up with one big win. ARIZONA BY 7
Bowling Green (-6½) KENT STATE 2:30 PM
After an opening upset over Troy, Bowling Green has now gone on to lose four consecutive
games. The Falcons are a pass-first team that averages only 75 yards per game on the
ground and the inability to control the clock has taken a toll as the defense is allowing a lot of
second-half points. QB Spencer Keith took most of the snaps last week for Kent State but
Bowling Green should expect to get more polished QB play this week. The Flashes have been
slightly stronger on defense but the drastic difference in strength of schedule likely more than
makes up the deficit. Kent State is scoring just 16 points per game despite facing fairly
marginal defensive opposition for the most part. Bowling Green has been an excellent ATS
team on the road in recent years with an 11-1 ATS mark in the last twelve games while on the
contrary Kent State has been lousy at home, covering in just three of the last 13 home games.
An underachieving Falcons team won with relative ease last season as the Flashes had
problems containing QB Sheehan in the air and on the ground. BOWLING GREEN BY 17
Stanford (-2½) OREGON STATE 6:00 PM
At 4-1 Stanford has taken great strides to getting back to the post season but a glance at the
schedule ahead will assure that it is far from a sure thing. The Cardinal is 3-0 in the Pac -10
coming off a huge win over UCLA last week and the lone loss on the season came in a game
that Stanford led most of the way. Oregon State bounced back from back-to-back losses with
an upset win at Arizona State in a game where the Beavers were significantly out-gained.
Stanford is dangerous even on the road because the running game has been incredibly
effective with an average of 222 yards per game. Oregon State features one of the better run
defenses in the nation however so this could be a tough match-up for both teams. These
teams should rate rather equally and this will be a big revenge game for the Beavers as
Stanford won to open the season last year in a game Oregon State dominated statistically. It
is difficult to say what Stanford will be able to do on the road as the best wins have come at
home and beating Washington State on the road offers little insight. Oregon State still holds a
strong home field edge and the Beavers are underrated right now . OREGON STATE BY 4
TENNESSEE (PK) Georgia 11:00 AM
Georgia already has two losses on the year but the Bulldogs have played one of the toughest
schedules in the nation. Georgia also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
While Georgia is scoring 27 points per game the yardage has not been terribly impressive and
the running game has been limited. Tennessee will be a tough team to run against and the
Volunteers will be desperate to avoid starting the SEC season 0-3. Tennessee has covered in
four of the last five meetings in this series and Georgia is now just 1-4 ATS on the season.
Tennessee has been a successful rushing team, averaging 188 yards per game and with the
QB mistakes that have been costly the Volunteers should aim to grind out this game making
an attractive situation for the home team. Georgia QB Joe Cox has already pitched six
interceptions and facing a play -making secondary could be problematic. Although Georgia’s
two losses have been close calls, the Bulldog wins have been narrow escapes and this is not
a team deserving of road favoritism in a still treacherous SEC venue. Tennessee has
problems but this is a must-win game. TENNESSEE BY 6
Marshall (-3) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Thundering Herd out-gained and out-rushed East Carolina at home last week but could
not pull off a third consecutive upset in a narrow defeat. Tulane took the lead late against
Army to make two straight wins after an ugly start to the season. These teams have not met
since ’06 and things have changed quite a bit for these squads. Tulane is more of a passoriented
offensive team this season and this will likely be the fifth straight game that the Wave
are out-rushed. Marshall is averaging 173 yards per game on the ground but finding the end
zone has been difficult, averaging just 20 points per game. Marshall has been very good
defensively outside of the Virginia Tech game but this is also a team that is not accustomed to
being a road favorite. The Herd is just 2-10-1 the last 13 games as road favorites, but the
Wave are just as bad as home underdogs. QB Joe Kemp is completing nearly 66 percent of
his passes this season but siding with the rushing team makes sense here particularly on the
quick turf. Tulane was fortunate to win last week and Marshall’s wins have been more
impressive so far this season. MARSHALL BY 7
TEXAS TECH (-17) Kansas State 12:00 PM
In last week’s easy win over New Mexico, Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts was knocked out and
he is unlikely to play in this game. Back-up Steven Sheffield played well in relief but there will
be an upgrade in competition this week. Texas Tech already has two losses after losing just
two games all of last season. The offense has put up big numbers but not overwhelming
numbers and the defense is allowing 362 yards per game. Statistically Kansas State looks
much better than the product on the field as the Wildcats have inflated numbers through two
FCS wins. Last week’s win over Iowa State was a big boost but certainly some breaks were
caught in that victory. Texas Tech has won and covered in each of the last five meetings
between these teams and the Wildcats have been a lousy road team in recent years. While
Texas Tech is using a new QB out of necessity, Kansas State made a QB switch last week as
well as Grant Gregory had an impressive game and provides mobility. Texas Tech still has
what it takes to pull away in this game and the QB injury will create great value in a match-up
featuring inexperience at the position on both sides. Texas Tech played Texas very tough and
was in position to beat Houston as well as being in position to win by a much wider margin last
week with a misleading final. TEXAS TECH BY 24
TEXAS (-31½) Colorado 6:15 PM
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare for this game but there is no doubt that there
has been attention placed on the game next week with Oklahoma. Texas has covered just
once this season but will still face huge spreads as the #2 team in the nation. Colorado has
played much better the last two games after a dreadful 0-2 start but the defensive numbers
are still concerning. Colorado has faced a far tougher schedule than Texas to this point and
last season the spread on this game was just 12 and not that much has changed between the
two squads. Colorado has not had significant success in this series but this could be a
favorable situation for the Buffaloes catching a ton of points. At 1-3 and likely 1-4 with a
couple of ugly national TV performances, Colorado will be significantly undervalued. This is a
team that projected as one of the contenders in the North division and this would be the
chance at redemption that Colorado and the struggling coaching staff needs. TEXAS BY 24
FLORIDA STATE (-2½) Georgia Tech 7:00 PM
The Seminoles already have three losses but the schedule rates as one of the toughest in the
nation. Big plays have killed Florida State this season and the defense is allowing over 400
yards per game. Georgia Tech was shutdown against Miami, a team that FSU probably
should have beaten but the Yellow Jackets appear back on track with back-to-back wins.
Georgia Tech was actually out-rushed last week and if not for five turnovers another loss was
likely in order. Last season Tech won 31-28 in Atlanta but Florida State has dominated the
series history. Florida State’s defense has been suspect and the Seminoles have struggled as
favorites. Georgia Tech is facing a second straight week on the road but Florida State enters
this game off a big national TV loss and so far this season FSU has followed up its losses with
poor performances. FSU has only played one great game this season and Georgia Tech is a
reliable underdog that will have a rushing advantage. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
OHIO STATE (-14½) Wisconsin 2:30 PM
The Badgers looked sloppy early this season and Wisconsin was flat out lucky to come back
and win against Fresno State but the Big Ten season has opened with two crisp wins over
quality opponents. Ohio State has dominated this season with four straight ATS wins since the
opening close call against Navy. The Buckeyes have had massive yardage advantages the
last three games but Wisconsin has averaged 433 yards per game and this could be the top
rushing team in the Big Ten. The Badger defense has struggled against the pass but Ohio
State has not featured the explosive aerial attack some expected. Wisconsin has had a lot of
success in this series and last season the Badgers season swung the wrong way following a
tough home loss to the Buckeyes. Ohio State has some injuries and a suspension to work
through on defense and Wisconsin should be backed as an undefeated underdog. Ohio State
is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight as home favorites. OHIO STATE BY 10
Oklahoma State (NL) TEXAS A&M 11:30 AM
Injuries are a big story for the Cowboys as two of the three hyped offensive playmakers for
Oklahoma State are questionable this week. Texas A&M had its undefeated run ruined last
week but the Aggies will have a rebound chance back at home. Oklahoma State won easily
last season but the game was almost dead even statistically as A&M showed some fight after
falling behind early. Two years ago the Aggies won as home underdogs and this could be a
similar situation. Both of these teams rush for over 200 yards per game but neither team has
played a quality schedule and much of the statistics are coming off mismatch wins.
Defensively both of these teams have shown a lot of weakness. A&M has out-gained all four
opponents this season and the Aggies own a proud history as home underdogs. Oklahoma
State has had an extra week to prepare for this game but this will also be the first road game
for the Cowboys which could be problematic. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 7
Arizona State (-19½) WASHINGTON STATE 4:00 PM
Washington State is allowing nearly 37 points and nearly 500 yards per game. Although the
Cougars did beat SMU in a wild comeback the best two performances in terms of yardage
came against USC and Stanford but both games still featured solid deficits. Arizona State has
now lost back-to-back games and this has been a team with a fragile psyche in past seasons.
ASU won 31-0 last season at home in this series and the Sun Devils have again been an
impressive defensive team on the season allowing just 16 points and 229 yards per game.
Arizona State has faced a far weaker schedule than Washington State has however. Playing
at home has not proven to be a significant advantage for Washington State and the injuries for
an already depth deprived team continue to add up. ARIZONA STATE BY 27
Ohio (-5) AKRON 5:00 PM
The Bobcats have won three of the last four games and the two losses on the season came in
respectable efforts against major conference schools. This will be the third straight week on
the road for Ohio however and Akron has won each of the last five home meetings between
these teams. Having to change QBs midseason is not an ideal situation but Akron QB Matt
Rodgers played much better in his last game even if the result was the same. Akron has had
an extra week of prep time for this game, valuable at this juncture given the personnel
changes. The Ohio offense has been a bit more productive but these teams have fairly similar
defensive numbers through schedules that rate comparably. Given Akron’s extra week to
ready for this game and the brutal third week in a row on the road, backing the home
underdog makes a lot of sense in a series where Akron has had a great deal of success. Ohio
was fortunate to win last week and the Bobcats are in a tough spot here. AKRON BY 3
Utah (-6½) COLORADO STATE 5:00 PM
Colorado State will be glad to be back at home after back-to-back road losses following a 3-0
start to the season. The Rams have been a productive offensive team but there are some
major concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Utah has just one loss and to its credit losing
by seven at Oregon is looking like a quality loss at this point as the Ducks have turned it on.
Utah has had little trouble in the three most recent meetings in this series and Colorado State
has not covered in any of the last six meetings. The Rams are a quality home underdog
however, featuring a 15-4 ATS run in those situations. Colorado State has come out way
ahead on the turnover margin so far this season yet there have been some disappointing
results. Utah is rested for this game and the Utes have been a very difficult team to pass
against. Utah is just 1-3 ATS this season but all three missed covers came by four points or
less. The Utes are still a very dangerous team in the Mountain West. UTAH BY 10
Oregon (-6½) UCLA 2:30 PM
The Ducks are on a roll after two suspect performances to open the season. The early season
controversy may have actually served to unite the team and provide better discipline and the
Ducks have been impressive three weeks in a row. Each of those wins came in a very
favorable home venue however and the one road game was the opening disaster in Boise.
UCLA lost its first game last week, falling behind early before a late rally fell short. The Bruins
have been carried by defense this season as the offense has had limited production through a
challenging schedule. UCLA has been a dominant home team, covering in 26 of the last 33
games at the Rose Bowl. Oregon has had some success in this series but the Ducks failed to
score the last trip to this stadium. Last year UCLA held the powerful Ducks offense in check
and won the yardage battle but fell just short on the scoreboard. Given UCLA’s astonishing
home records in recent years and Oregon’s lack of road credibility this looks like a good
opportunity to go against a Ducks team that is getting a lot of attention. UCLA BY 3
TOLEDO (-7½) Western Michigan 6:00 PM
The Rockets continue to put up big numbers and Toledo is back at home this week following
back-to-back road wins. Toledo has some of the best offensive numbers in the nation,
averaging 474 yards per game and over 32 points per game. Western Michigan was expected
to be one of the top teams in the MAC but the Broncos are a losing team at this juncture and
coming off a lopsided loss in Dekalb. QB Tim Hiller had three interceptions last week but this
still should be a productive offensive team. Toledo has been a great home team over the
years but those numbers have slipped a bit in recent seasons. Western Michigan has won
with relative ease each of the last three meetings and this could be a spot where Toledo gets
caught as Western is better than the numbers suggest. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 4
LOUISVILLE (NL) Southern Miss 6:30 PM
Southern Miss was upset in its last game after a strong start to the year and this is a team that
is now besieged with injuries. Statistically the Golden Eagles have been great on both sides of
the ball but a 52-0 win over Alcorn State has inflated those numbers. Southern Miss did play
tough at Kansas but it has taken a toll and this will now be a third straight road game.
Louisville has lost three consecutive games and the Cardinals played and lost with a back-up
QB last week. Given the injuries on both sides it makes sense to look towards the home team
that is likely undervalued following bad losses against quality competition. Southern Miss has
been a decent road performer but this could be an incomplete offense facing a brutal travel
draw. The Cardinals have had success against their former conference. LOUISVILLE BY 14
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) Kentucky 11:30 AM
Kentucky has lost badly the last two weeks but they have had to face Florida and Alabama.
Both games came at home but the Wildcats really did not have a chance. South Carolina has
won nine consecutive meetings in this series and statistically the Gamecocks have been
significantly better on both sides of the ball though the Wildcats have faced a tougher slate.
Four turnovers from the Gamecocks last season led to a very tight game between these
teams. It was a tie game fairly late in the fourth but South Carolina scored to win and cover on
a drive led by current Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia. The South Carolina offense has been
more efficient and less mistake prone this season and though a conference loss has already
been taken this is a team that could move into the #2 spot in the SEC East. Wins the first two
weeks over Miami, Ohio and Louisville look far less impressive at this point in the season and
the Wildcats could struggle in this match-up unless South Carolina gets greedy and is caught
looking ahead to Alabama next week. This will be the first road game of the season for
Kentucky so things could get worse. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 21
Auburn (-3) ARKANSAS 12:00 PM
The Razorbacks beat Auburn 25-22 last season in what at the time seemed like a significant
upset but both teams ended the year 5-7. Arkansas has lost twice already this season but the
schedule has been far tougher. Last week ’s result was impressive for the Razorbacks and this
is a team that is really putting things together on offense. Defensively there are some issues
but the schedule has also played a role in the marginal numbers. Auburn is back in the
national rankings with a 5-0 start but last week’s road win at Tennessee was the first truly
impressive win as the Tigers probably deserved to lose the West Virginia game. The Tigers
have one of the top rushing attacks in the nation but this is also a team that is giving up over
153 yards per game on the ground. Auburn has also benefited from one of the top turnover
margins in the nation, a reversal from last season. Although Arkansas is coming off an
impressive non-conference win, this is a team that is 0-2 in SEC play and there will be
significant motivation to win this game. The rushing statistics for Auburn are a bit inflated from
big numbers the first two weeks and the Tigers face a second straight tough road game in the
SEC, now also getting some attention with the national exposure. ARKANSAS BY 6
OKLAHOMA (-23½) Baylor 2:30 PM
Oklahoma has two shutout wins and two losses in a bizarre season and this game has been
robbed of what could have been a brilliant QB match-up due to injuries. The Sooners have
two losses despite allowing fewer than nine points per game on average and both losses have
incredibly come by just a single point. The defensive numbers are impressive but against
quality competition the offense has not been able to produce in line with past seasons. OU QB
Landry Jones has not had bad numbers but his inexperience has shown in key spots. Baylor’s
QB Injury is more devastating as Robert Griffin provides such an exciting dynamic to the
offense. The Bears were down to QB #3 last week and visiting Norman is a dangerous place
in that situation. Baylor was actually out-gained against Kent State last week which is
discouraging for a team that is 3-1 and could challenge for a bowl spot with an upset or two.
Oklahoma rebounded nicely from its last loss and though some season goals are lost this is
still a team capable of wining the Big XII, with a big game next. OKLAHOMA BY 35
Navy (-13) RICE 2:30 PM
After winning ten games last season Rice is 0-5 and there has been just one ATS win in that
mix. Last week the Owls played tough against Tulsa, allowing only 27 points in a game that
was tied at the half. Navy was able to win in overtime against Air Force in a defensive battle.
Navy has been one of the top rushing teams in the nation this season but the numbers have
not been as dominant this season. Rice is allowing nearly 460 yards per game but they have
faced two Big XII teams. Injuries have hit the Rice offense hard and Navy has been an
impressive road team over the years even in situations laying points. NAVY BY 16
Tcu (-11) AIR FORCE 6:30 PM
With Houston falling last week TCU may start to get some more attention and the Frogs have
passed all the early tests. Conference games like this particularly on the road could be the
greatest upset risk however. Air Force is coming off a tough loss and after losing badly last
season in this match-up this could be a big game for the Falcons. QB Tim Jefferson was back
in action for the Falcons last week and with another week he should be at 100 percent this
week. The Frogs are known for great defense but Air Force actually allowed few er points per
game this season. Air Force is likely to be an underdog with a rushing edge in this match-up
and TCU has rarely had big offensive numbers on the road. TCU BY 7
East Carolina (-6½) SMU 7:00 PM
The Pirates are thought of as a strong defensive team but ECU is allowing 366 yards and over
24 points per game on the year. The Pirates barely survived last week and now must face
another tricky road game. ECU has been out-gained in three of the last four games and
SMU’s defense has not really been that much worse statistically. The Mustang offense has
been plagued by interceptions but the production has been there while ECU has struggled to
score points. East Carolina has covered just once this season and it came by the slimmest of
margins and this is a team that is still overvalued based on the attention picked up from the
great early season run last year and the conference championship. EAST CAROLINA BY 4
Florida (-9½) LSU 7:00 PM
While LSU has survived some close calls and played some sloppy football at times the Tigers
came up with a big win last week in their best performance of the season. LSU has won
outright in three of the last five meetings including both games in that span in Baton Rouge.
While Florida unquestionably has great talent the Gators have not really proved much on the
field this season. Florida is yet to play a challenging road game and the offense struggled in
its toughest test so far. QB Tim Tebow is still listed as questionable for this game and the big
statistics have been produced against one of the weakest schedules in the nation. Going
against Florida has not proven to be wise but the value on a flawed but still dangerous LSU
team is significant in this match-up. LSU has lousy recent ATS numbers at home but Tigers
have been a home dog once in six plus years. FLORIDA BY 7
IOWA (-7½) Michigan 7:05 PM
The Hawkeyes had to survive a late rally last week while Michigan’s late rally was not enough,
stealing the potential 5-0 head-to-head battle this week. In its biggest games Iowa has played
extremely well but the Hawkeyes have nearly been upset twice as well. Michigan’s defense is
not holding up in conferenceplay as the Wolverines are allowing close to 400 yards per game.
The Wolverines are posting impressive rushing numbers however and freshmen QB Tate
Forcier actually has better numbers than Iowa’s veteran Ricky Stanzi. Michigan has won S/U
each of the last three years in this series and this will be a rare situation where Iowa is the
team laying points. The Hawkeyes have really struggled as a home favorite in recent years
despite being dominant in that role early in Coach Ferentz’s career with the team. Iowa is just
5-10 ATS the last four years and this could be too many points to give an offense that can put
up big points and score in a hurry. IOWA BY 4
Utah State (-13½) NEW MEXICO STATE 7:00 PM
Utah State has posted nearly 30 points per game while allowing just over 35 points per game
through a very tough schedule. The result is 1-3 with no FBS wins but the offense has posted
impressive numbers and has not been overwhelmingly overmatched even against three high
quality opponents. New Mexico State has been out-gained in every game this season and
through one of the absolute weakest schedules in the nation NMS has averaged just 15 points
per game. Sagarin rates the New Mexico State schedule 145th, which means about 25 FCS
teams have played tougher slates. This is a team with two wins however and the defense has
posted decent numbers. Last season Utah State won 47-2 in this series and there is no
discernible home field edge here. UTAH STATE BY 17
Utep (-3) MEMPHIS 7:00 PM
The Miners scored a big win last week but it was more about an overrated Houston team
struggling than UTEP playing great. The offense had a big day but this is easily one of the
worst defenses in the nation. In fairness UTEP has played an insane schedule by Conference
USA standards and at 1-0 in league play the Miners are still in line for season goals. Memphis
has just one FCS win to its credit with four S/U and ATS losses in the FBS match-ups. The
schedule has not been that difficult but there has been no rhythm on offense as three QBs
have seen significant time. Memphis has won the only two recent meetings between these
teams and considering trusting an awful defense in a road favorite role off a huge upset win in
which they were badly out-gained should raise a major red flag. MEMPHIS BY 4
SAN JOSE STATE (-4) Idaho 7:00 PM
The oddsmakers have a tough case with Idaho as this is clearly a team that has improved by
leaps and bounds from the past few seasons. Idaho won three games in the first two years
under Coach Akey but QB Nate Enderle is now experienced and he is playing like a true
veteran and one of the top signal-callers in this conference. Idaho is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and they
have four outright wins as underdogs including wins over two Mountain West teams. The
Vandals won’t be confused for a great defensive team but the offense is averaging over 400
yards per game. San Jose State has faced a brutal schedule and the lone win came against
FCS Cal-Poly. The Spartans were really not competitive against three highly regarded teams
in non-conference play but this is a team that has won at least four WAC games each of the
last three years. SJSU has barely beat Idaho each of the past two years and the Vandals are
a confident group ready to keep this great run going. IDAHO BY 3
Byu (-16½) UNLV 9:00 PM
UNLV was out-gained by 427 yards last week in an ugly rivalry loss. Much of the production
came late as the dogs were certainly not called off but in a year where the Rebels expected to
be a bowl caliber team there has been only a narrow win over Hawaii. Last week ’s loss came
on the Heels of three straight games with late game drama so the Rebels just ran out of gas.
These teams have posted fairly similar offensive profiles so far this season and last year BYU
struggled in this match-up, winning by just seven in a very even statistical game. Look for
UNLV to bounce back as last week ’s loss was not as bad as it looked and it came against a
desperate Nevada team that was still winless. BYU BY 7
Fresno State (-9) HAWAII 11:00 AM
The Bulldogs are 1-3 but they have out-gained every opponent this season in a schedule that
currently features three undefeated nationally ranked teams. Hawaii’s wins came against
Central Arkansas and Washington State so there is little weight in the resume and the
Warriors were shut down last week in the conferenc e opener. Hawaii is never an easy team to
face on the road but it has got to the point where a little too much respect can be given to the
home team in Hawaii games. This has been a closely contested game the past two years but
Fresno should have immense match-up edges here and the Bulldogs are desperate for a win
after tough losses in big games . FRESNO STATE BY 21
Florida International (-3) WESTERN KENTUCKY 3:00 PM
Something has to give in this battle of 0-4 teams. Both teams have covered twice but both
squads have been out-gained in every game. The schedule has been brutally tough for both
teams and the defensive numbers have shown it. Western Kentucky has been the better
rushing team this season which could allow for a home upset. WKU has had two weeks to
prepare for this game and this will be a key spot on the schedule for the Hilltoppers as the
opportunities for wins are rare. WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 4
LOUISIANA (-6) North Texas 6:00 PM
These teams mirror each other defensively but North Texas has been the superior offensive
team even with QB Riley Dodge missing some time. North Texas has dominated the ATS
numbers in this series but the Ragin’ Cajuns were easy winners last season. Louisiana has
been a tough team to beat at home but there is a significant injury report for the ULL squad
and North Texas appears to be rested and healthy and ready to resume what opened as a
very promising start to the season. UNT has out-gained three of four foes this season with the
exception being Alabama and Louisiana is not a great rushing force this season. North Texas
will be a dangerous underdog this season and Louisiana’s early season upset win over
Kansas State is pulling a little too much weight with this number. NORTH TEXAS BY 3
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 ARIZONA (-6) over Houston
RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+9) over Baltimore
RATING 3 BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
RATING 2 CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (NL) over Seattle
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: CHICAGO, GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS, SAN DIEGO
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2009
Minnesota (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Rams defense has played respectably this season but St. Louis can not get anything
going on offense. St. Louis has scored 24 points through four games and last week the team
surrendered three defensive touchdowns. Opponents are able to play up on Stephen Jackson
as he is the only viable threat in the offense and Kyle Boller did not make many plays at QB
last week. This would be a great spot to go-against Minnesota as the Vikings will face a short
week coming off all the hoopla of the huge Monday night game. That result will certainly
impact this line and our opinion but St. Louis will be a tough team to back against a Vikings
team with a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Minnesota did not play particularly well
in the first two weeks of the season but still won and covered as road favorites while St. Louis
would likely have to score a season high to cover in this game. VIKINGS BY 13
Dallas (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chiefs were once a formidable home underdog but Kansas City failed getting a lot of
points last week in a game that was not as close as the final margin. The Chiefs have a very
limited running game and the passing attack has not developed enough in the system yet.
Kansas City has faced a brutal schedule and it is not about to get any easier. There could be
some breaks with injuries this week as Dallas RBs Felix Jones and Marion Barber are not
likely 100 percent. WR Roy Williams is also listed as questionable which could make a Dallas
team that has only scored 24 points on offense the last two weeks even more suspect. This
will be the second straight road game and Dallas will certainly be overvalued in this match-up
against the winless Chiefs. Kansas City has shown the most life of the 0-4 teams even if it has
been with inconsistency so this could be an underdog that stays close. COWBOYS BY 7
CAROLINA (-4) Washington (37½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week should be a favorable situation for the winless Panthers and catching
a Washington squad with serious problems on offense should be a favorable situation.
Washington has only scored 56 points in four games and there continue to be far too many
missed opportunities on offense. Washington got a much needed win last week but it was
unimpressive given the situation, playing at home against a winless team with some of the
worst defensive numbers in the league and facing Josh Johnson’s first career start.
Washington does have a solid defense but Carolina could be poised for a big day after a
turnover riddled start to the season through a tough schedule. PANTHERS BY 10
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Tampa Bay 12:00 PM
Last week was another loss for the Buccaneers but the result was much more encouraging. In
his first career start QB Josh Johnson showed some promise and he does provide a different
dynamic with his mobility, something that is needed given some of the protection problems. It
could be blamed on the struggling Washington offense, but the Tampa Bay defense played its
best game and made a few big plays though it was not enough. A rested Eagles team will play
as significant favorites and at present it is unclear what the QB and RB situations will be for
Philadelphia. QB Donovan McNabb is likely to return to action but there could be some rust.
The two Eagles wins have come against teams that are 0-7 and Philadelphia lost badly to the
Saints so it is unclear if this team really can justify its steep favoritism. The Eagles have
allowed 72 points in three games so this may not be the Eagles defense of past years as a
few of the key departures seem to be having an impact elsewhere. EAGLES BY 7
NY GIANTS (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
Eli Manning left the last game with a foot injury and his status is uncertain though early reports
have been encouraging. The Giants cruised to another win last week to move to 4-0 and this
looks like the most complete team in the league though the schedule has not been overly
difficult. A big game with the Saints could be a great undefeated showdown next week and
this should be an easy home game for the Giants after three consecutive road wins. New York
has not been great in role as a huge favorite and the wins over Washington and Dallas were
very tight so lopsided wins the last two weeks against teams that are now both 0-4 should not
be given too much weight. The Raiders have scored just 42 points in four games and the
offense has not come close to recapturing the steady play that was featured in the opening
week. New York is tough to go-against right now at any number. GIANTS BY 16
BUFFALO (-6) Cleveland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Browns appeared to have a win in its grasp and then took momentum into OT with a blocked
PAT but Cleveland is now 0 -4. Cleveland had 395 yards of offense against a Cincinnati defense that
had been playing well and the offense appears much more fluid with Derek Anderson at QB even if
he makes some mistakes. Jamal Lewis may still be injured for th is game but Jerome Harrison made
an impact in the backfield last week. Despite facing an unproven QB the Bills were blown out last
week in Miami. At 1-3, a season that started with a great performance may be turning for the worse
quickly. In his first game back Marshawn Lynch had a limited impact but a three interception game
from QB Trent Edwards was too much to overcome. Buffalo is still tough at home. BILLS BY 10
BALTIMORE (-9) Cincinnati (42) 12:00 PM
The media was a little quick to anoint the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC and
Baltimore came up short in New England. The Ravens continue to move the ball effectively
but this is clearly not the same Ravens defense, having allowed 20 points per game. The
Ravens have covered in nine of the last ten games as favorites but this will be a steep price
going against a Cincinnati team tied with Baltimore on top of the standings. The Bengals
struggled last week but division rivalry games take on a different meaning and Cincinnati
should not be penalized for being a bit flat after a huge win over the Steelers. This is still a
quality team that could cause problems for the Ravens. Baltimore’s wins have included two 0-
4 teams so this is a team being overvalued right now. RAVENS BY 3
Pittsburgh (NL) DETROIT 12:00 PM
The Lions were tied 21-21 before eventually being doubled up 48-24 against Chicago. Detroit
thoroughly out-gained the Bears but an interception setting up a very short field and a kickoff
return TD were mistakes the Lions can not afford to make. QB Matthew Stafford and WR
Calvin Johnson were both injured last week as well and if they must miss time in this game it
will be a very tough week. Pittsburgh finally got a rushing attack going en route to a big win
that ended up close at the end. Detroit has allowed 134 points on the season so Pittsburgh
should have plenty of scoring opportunities. The Steelers have only scored two more points
than the Lions this season and Pittsburgh would potentially be vulnerable to the Detroit pass
attack if healthy. Detroit has improved considerably but there still is a long ways to go and too
many encouraging first halves have been met with second half failures. STEELERS BY 14
SAN FRANCISCO (-2½) Atlanta (42½) 3:05 PM
The 49ers could easily be 4-0 and a commanding lead in the NFC West has been developed
with a first round sweep of the three division rivals. San Francisco scored three defensive
touchdowns last week and even without RB Gore the offense has been able to make enough
plays. Atlanta has had two weeks to soak in the first loss of the season. In three games the
Falcons have only scored four more points than they have allowed and despite a reputation as
a strong offensive team the Falcons are averaging just 19 points per game. The rushing attack
has fallen short of expectations this season and it will be another tough match-up on the
ground this week. San Francisco’s win last week was deceptively impressive with the
turnovers creating most of the points. Atlanta could be a dangerous dog. FALCONS BY 3
New England (-3½) DENVER (42½) 3:15 PM
Denver may not have played the most difficult schedule but last week’s win gained some
credibility and the Broncos have allowed just 26 points in the 4-0 start. Kyle Orton has not
made mistakes at QB and the Broncos have two RBs nearly at 250 yards already although
Correll Buckhalter left last week’s game with an ankle injury. New England moved to 3-1 with
a big win last week and this could be a difficult spot facing long travel and playing as a road
favorite in a tough venue. New England lost its only road game this season, scoring just nine
points and the Patriots have been a very average defensive team. The coaching match-up
brings a lot of intrigue but Denver clearly is going in the right direction. BRONCOS BY 3
ARIZONA (-6) Houston (48) 3:15 PM
The Cardinals are rested after a 1-2 start and an ugly loss in primetime. Arizona should have
an opportunity to put points on the board in this match-up as the Houston defense has been a
severe disappointment so far this season. The Texans have allowed 92 points in four games
and on offense the running game has had very little impact which has often left QB Matt
Schaub in less than favorable situations. Two of the best receivers in the NFL will face off in
this match-up and Houston’s effective win over Oakland should not carry tremendous weight.
Arizona has had to play a tough early season schedule and this is a team that could really get
on track in this match-up coming out of the bye week . CARDINALS BY 14
SEATTLE (NL) Jacksonville 3:15 PM
Numerous injuries for the Seahawks make this a problematic game even though the Jaguars
will face significant travel. After an 0-2 start the Jaguars have looked like a contender the past
two weeks, scoring 68 points in two impressive wins. The Jaguars have not been great on
defense but they have also played four very good offensive teams and the schedule features
teams that are a combined 1-15 the next four games so this is a team that can start to make
some noise in the AFC. Seattle normally holds an excellent home field edge but that can
change with a back-up QB and several key injuries on defense. Jacksonville’s passing game
has really turned it on the last two weeks and could have a big day. JAGUARS BY 7
Indianapolis (-3½) TENNESSEE (46) 7:20 PM
The Titans have hit rock bottom as three close losses that featured some sloppy play and
missed opportunities turned into a blowout loss last week taking the 13-3 2008 team to 0-4 in
2009. Tennessee’s defense was one of the best in the NFL last season but the Titans have
allowed 108 points in four games. Tennessee is still a very tough team to run against but with
the groove that Peyton Manning is in, the Titans could get shredded this week. The Colts have
delivered twice in primetime games already this season and although this looks like a team
with some vulnerability, Indianapolis just keeps winning. The trends would support the Titans
in this spot but Tennessee has been an undisciplined team that will have a hard time keeping
pace in this match-up unless turnovers are forced, a tough task vs. Manning. COLTS BY 6
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2009
NY Jets (-1) MIAMI (37) 7:30 PM
With Chad Henne at QB the Dolphins scored a season high in points to pick up the first win of the
season. Miami has out-scored its opponents for the year despite the 1 -3 record and the Dolphins
have had to play a difficult schedule. Some would say the Jets were exposed last week after
catching some breaks in the 3-0 start but after two turnovers turned directly into touchdowns New
York battled back and made the Saints work for the win. The New York defense held Drew Brees to
just 190 yards and no touchdowns so even if the Jets have been a bit lucky the defense is certainly
doing some things right. The Jets have had overwhelming success in this series and the defense
should cause problems for the young Miami QB. These teams are well matched but while the Jets
have found ways to win, Miami has found ways to lose with last week the exception. JETS BY 4
entering the 4th quarter but
pushed the lead to 35-17
seemingly for the cover but
Colorado scored on a long pass in
the closing seconds. BYU led just
21-10 entering t
RATING 5 VIRGINIA TECH (-13½) over Boston College
RATING 4 CONNECTICUT (+8½) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 ARKANSAS (+3) over Auburn
RATING 2 SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) over Kentucky
RATING 2 FRESNO STATE (-9) over Hawaii
RATING 1 MISSISSIPPI STATE (+3) over Houston
RATING 1 UNLV (+16½) over BYU
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2009
Nebraska (-2½) MISSOURI 8:00 PM
Missouri remains undefeated entering this huge Big XII North battle between top 25 teams.
Although Nebraska has a loss already it was just a one-point loss at Virginia Tech in a game
that Nebraska led most of the way . Both teams have posted great offensive numbers this
season while Nebraska has been a significantly better defensive team statistically. The
Huskers have played three Sun Belt teams at home to pad the numbers and while Missouri
did play a FCS team , the Tigers have faced three reasonably difficult games including two
away from home. Missouri has dominated this series the last two years, winning by a
combined score of 93-23. Missouri was expected to take a big step back this year in part due
to the reliance on unproven sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert. So far everything has been great
for Gabbert who has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. His size makes him a very
tough match-up for opponents and Missouri also features physically imposing receivers.
Nebraska QB Zac Lee has been efficient enough and Nebraska should have the rushing edge
in this game. Missouri was out-rushed 218-78 against Nevada in its last game but the Tigers
still won and covered on the road. Nebraska technically owns the top scoring defense in the
nation through four games and this could be an upset opportunity. Nebraska has covered in
every game and now is not the time to go-against. NEBRASKA BY 3
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2009
NEVADA (-7) Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM
The recent home/road trends for these teams should heavily favor Nevada in this key WAC
match-up between two teams that made bowl games last season. Nevada started the year 0-3
through a tough schedule but buried state-rival UNLV last week, 63-28. Though the statistics
were impressive with 559 rushing yards, it was not a complete rout, as it was a seven point
game entering the fourth quarter. Louisiana Tech also enjoyed a big night on the ground in
primetime last week with 352 rushing yards and a strong defensive showing to beat Hawaii.
Last season Nevada won by four with a late TD in Ruston despite trailing the Bulldogs nearly
the entire game. In a match-up of two teams that like to run the ball, Tech was superior last
season but it was the fourth straight loss in this series. Nevada has faced a very tough
schedule so this is a team that may be undervalued with a 1-3 record. Louisiana Tech has not
performed well away from home although the Bulldogs will catch a scheduling advantage this
week. Nevada is a difficult team to trust defensively, particularly coming off a big win so
although the Wolf Pack should win this game, covering a steep number that is a bit inflated
looks problematic against a better defensive team that also rushes well. NEVADA BY 4
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2009
West Virginia (-10) SYRACUSE 11:00 AM
The Mountaineers have turned the ball over 14 times in four games making them a risky team
to back despite impressive yardage statistics. West Virginia has out-gained every opponent
this season and in the lone loss the Mountaineers had six turnovers and still nearly won. The
loss to Auburn may not sting as much as the Tigers are 5-0 and climbing the rankings and the
win over East Carolina is looking better as well. Last season as a 22-point underdog Syracuse
gave West Virginia a tough game as the Orange actually won the yardage battle and trailed by
just one entering the 4th quarter in an eventual 17-6 loss. The Orange had seven turnovers
last week to lose at home despite also winning the yardage battle and although both QBs in
this match-up have strong completion percentages there have been far too many
interceptions. Syracuse has actually been a very difficult team to run against this season,
allowing just 91 yards per game on the ground which could make this a challenging match-up
for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has not proven it can play a clean game nor has the team
won on the road so far this season. WEST VIRGINIA BY 9
Michigan State (-4) ILLINOIS 11:00 AM
The Spartans got a huge win over Michigan last week but a once comfortable lead turned into
an OT game as the Michigan State defense has shown vulnerability. The Spartans have been
a productive offensive team through a fairly tough schedule but the defense has given up a lot
of big plays through the air. After avoiding a 1-4 start with a narrow win over its archrival this
could be a tricky spot for the Spartans. Illinois is yet to beat a FBS foe and the FCS win was
not terribly impressive. The Illini have not covered in a game and this has to be considered
one of the most disappointing teams in the nation after fairly high preseason expectations.
Illinois has had to face Penn State and Ohio State, likely the top teams in the Big Ten as well
as a undefeated Missouri team however so things could open up a bit this week. The Illinois
offense has moved the ball but scoring has proven difficult. Michigan State has had success in
this series, covering ten of the last 13 despite losing S/U last year but Illinois should face its
best match-up this week and can breakthrough for a win. ILLINOIS BY 7
VIRGINIA TECH (-13½) Boston College 11:00 AM
The Florida State game is always huge for Boston College and last week’s game was
enhanced further with the national attention brought to the match-up. BC delivered an
excellent performance getting out to an early lead then scoring late to seal the victory. The QB
situation should be settled as freshmen Dav id Shinskie delivered a solid game without costly
mistakes and the Eagles were greatly aided by the successful running game behind Montel
Harris. Coming off the big win over Miami, Virginia Tech was clearly a bit flat last week as
Duke forced a shootout in a very competitive game. Boston College has been impressive in its
home games but the lone road game featured a disastrous performance. The Hokies have
faced a far more difficult schedule and the Hokies have proven the ability to move the ball on
the ground and through the air. Even though QB Tyrod Taylor has taken his share of criticism
he has just one interception this season despite facing several quality defenses. Although BC
has delivered several excellent recent efforts in this series this should be a more favorable
situation for the Hokies and a convincing win should be in order. Boston College has been
fortunate to pick up wins the last two weeks and the Eagles could get caught in a very tough
spot this week against a talented and motivated team. VIRGINIA TECH BY 24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-22½) Eastern Michigan 11:00 AM
Though it was not easy, nor impressive, Central Michigan got a big road win last week against
the 2008 MAC champion Buffalo. Central Michigan has been solid defensively this season but
they have also faced one of the weaker schedules in the nation. That said, this is a team that
is 2-0 in the MAC and beat Michigan State while playing respectably close with Arizona in two
major conference tests. Eastern Michigan is still winless on the season and through a slightly
more difficult schedule the Eagles have been dwarfed statistically by what Central Michigan
has done on both sides of the ball. The season-ending injury to QB Andy Schmitt can not be
overstated but this is also a series that Central Michigan has struggled in despite being one of
the top teams in the conference. Three of the last five meetings have gone to OT and the
other two games in the past two years have been high-scoring burners with Eastern Michigan
winning outright as double-digit underdogs both years. There was some animosity between
the coaching staffs in the past but Eastern Michigan has cleaned house and this game will
likely not have the same meaning to the underdog Eagles. A bigger game with Western
Michigan is waiting next week so this could be a problematic spot for Central Michigan to
cover a huge spread while Eastern always plays well here. CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 16
NC STATE (-14½) Duke 3:00 PM
Russell Wilson’s incredible streak of interception Bonus Play came to an end last week, as did
the three-game winning streak for the Wolfpack. Two of those wins came against FCS
competition however and a serious comeback was needed to get the win over Pittsburgh at
home. NC State has some of the best defensive numbers in the country but with two fifths of
the games coming against lower division competition there should not be too much weight
given to the numbers. NC State has been very effective against the run but Duke will aim to
pass the ball, as they did with great success last week against Virginia Tech. The trends line
up with Duke as NC State has been an awful home favorite in recent years, going just 4-15
ATS in the past 19 and Duke has been an excellent ATS road team even though the S/U wins
have been rare. These nearby schools have played very competitive games each of the last
three years both in terms of the score and the yardage. NC State has taken the outright win in
all three of those games but it has never come easily. Duke is no longer the doormat of years
past and competitive efforts against Virginia Tech and Kansas make the Blue Devils worth a
look here against a much less impressive team. NC STATE BY 10
WAKE FOREST (-10½) Maryland 5:30 PM
Through tough schedules these teams have endured some losses but both came up with big
ACC wins last week. Maryland has produced some of the most discouraging results in the
country so far this season with only a narrow FCS win but last week the Terps came up with a
solid upset win over Clemson. Maryland did not run the ball well last week but QB Chris
Turner was very effective and the defense had by far its best effort of the year. Wake Forest
could easily be 5-0 right now as both losses came by just three points. Wake Forest is
allowing 15 fewer points per game on the season but the Demon Deacons allow nearly as
many yards. Maryland has had 15 turnovers this season which has contributed to the losses
as they have actually out-gained each of the last three opponents. Maryland RB De’Rel Scott
was lost for the season last week but there is talent in the backfield and Scott had been
fumbling this season. Last season Maryland dominated Wake Forest in a 21-0 shutout win
where the Deacons were out-gained 470-219. Maryland has had success in this series and
these teams project similarly despite the contrasting starts to the season. This is a lot of points
to lay for a team that has a poor history in the home favorite role. WAKE FOREST BY 7
VIRGINIA (-6½) Indiana 2:30 PM
Just like last season Virginia endured a very tough start to the year. The schedule was difficult
but the Cavaliers also did not play well. Last week everything came together for a stunning
upset as the defense allowed just three points and 14 yards. Even in the win Virginia did not
accomplish a great deal on offense and for the season the Cavaliers have averaged just 272
yards per game. Indiana played a very weak non-conference schedule to start 3-0 but the
Hoosiers impressed in a near-miss against Michigan two weeks ago. Ohio State proved to be
a much tougher match last week and the Hoosiers were beaten worse than the final score
even indicated. Indiana has been a decent defensive team this season which has been a bit of
a surprise and Hoosiers are rushing the ball well and getting decent enough QB play. This is
an odd non-conference match-up in the middle of the season which should favor the home
team as Indiana is coming off facing two marquee Big Ten opponents and then will face
Illinois next. The William & Mary loss looks bad but things appear to be coming together in
Charlottesville and the Cavaliers have battled commendably against three very good teams
the last three weeks. Virginia is far from an offensive force but historically this has been a
strong home team while Indiana will be in a tough road situation and the early returns do not
rate very favorably for the Big Ten. Indiana is also just 12-22-2 ATS on the road over the past
seven years and the Hoosiers have an inflated record at 3-2. VIRGINIA BY 10
MINNESOTA (-4) Purdue 2:30 PM
Although Minnesota had the ball late last week down three the Gophers were thoroughly
outplayed and it took good fortune to stay as close as they did. That makes two consecutive
home losses for Minnesota in the new stadium and the Gophers have not won convincingly all
season and Minnesota has been out-gained in four consecutive games. Purdue’s defense will
take a bit more criticism allowing nearly 30 points per game but the Boilers have played a
strong schedule and each loss has come by seven or fewer points. Through equally difficult
slates, Purdue has significantly out-produced Minnesota, particularly on the ground which was
a glaring problem area for the Gophers last week. Adam Weber came into the year as the far
more acclaimed QB but Joey Elliot has put up better numbers for Purdue and defensively
these teams are much closer than at first glance. Minnesota had a big turnover edge in last
year’s game, a game that Purdue QB Curtis Painter left with injury. Purdue has had success
in this series covering in seven of the last ten and Minnesota has not appeared capable of a
blowout and now faces a desperate team. MINNESOTA BY 3
PITTSBURGH (-8½) Connecticut 11:00 AM
While Pittsburgh has played challenging road games the last two weeks, Connecticut has
rested, coasting to an easy FCS win two weeks ago before being off last week. The Huskies
are perfect ATS this season and nearly were perfect S/U with an odd two-point loss mixed in.
Both of these Big East teams lost to ACC teams on the season and overall the yardage
production has been very similar on offense through relatively similar schedules. Both teams
allow very few points but Connecticut has done it while allowing 110 fewer yards per game.
The Huskies are among the best in the nation in several defensive categories and there has
been a constant w ith recent UConn teams and that is an emphasis on running the ball and
stopping the run. QB Zach Frazer may be able to return for this game but Cody Endres has
played extremely well in his place. Oddly the road team has cruised to a convincing win each
of the last two years of this series. Pittsburgh’s offense should be called into question to some
degree as the Panthers were badly out-gained twice this season and this is a team that has
been well on the plus side of the turnover margin so far. CONNECTICUT BY 3
NORTHWESTERN (-21) Miami, OH 11:00 AM
Miami did cover in a 24-point loss last week but it has been a very rough year for the
Redhawks. Miami is averaging just eleven points per game and there have been 18 turnovers,
the most in the nation. This will be the fourth road game in five weeks for Miami and the
Redhawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. On the other hand
Northwestern has faced an incredibly weak schedule and the Wildcats struggled against
Eastern Michigan of the MAC earlier this season. Miami has been far more productive in
terms of yards than the scoreboard has indicated so this is a team that could find itself
catching some value in the next few weeks. Against one of the weakest schedules in the
nation Northwestern i s allowing 26 points per game so Miami is likely to have some
opportunities. The Redhawks have actually covered in the last three meetings with Big Ten
teams and Northwestern has been a horrendous ATS team as a favorite over the last few
years. These teams played two years ago with a line of -5.5 and the Redhawk offense has
shown a lot more promise since QB Zac Dysert took over. These types of games tucked in
between conference clashes are always difficult for the favorite. NORTHWESTERN BY 13
KANSAS (-19) Iowa State 11:30 AM
The Jayhawks are 4-0 but the early season schedule has been favorable. Kansas has had
two weeks to prepare for this conference opener and few teams have been as good in the
home favorite role the last few years. Last season Iowa State nearly pulled off a big upset in
this match-up with a 35-33 loss in a game the Cyclones led 17-0 at one point. It was
heartbreak city for Iowa State last week as well as the tying scoring drive suffered a blocked
extra-point and a one-point loss was the result. Statistically Kansas has significant edges on
both sides of the ball although Kansas has played one of the weaker schedules of any major
conference team. Kansas can not afford to take this game lightly as the second half schedule
will present great challenges. Iowa State has struggled to stop the run and Kansas is rushing
for 209 yards per game while still possessing an experienced veteran QB. KANSAS BY 24
Alabama (-6½) MISSISSIPPI 12:00 PM
Although many rated these teams equally before the start of the season and pointed to this
game as the key decider in the SEC West, Alabama has been the vastly superior team at this
point in the season. The Tide has faced a far more challenging schedule and posted nearly 90
more yards per game on offense while allowing over 50 fewer yards per game. Ole Miss has
only allowed around eleven points per game but the Rebels were losers in their only
challenging game so far this season. Alabama is 4-1 ATS even with inflated spreads and the
lone miss was still a 26-point w in. Jevan Snead came into the season as a much more well
regarded QB but Greg McElroy has out-played him in every way so far this year for Alabama.
Mississippi has covered in four consecutive games in this series but Alabama has won each
of those games and this will be the lowest line the series has seen since 2003. Alabama is
facing a second straight SEC road game but there will be no surprises from the Rebels this
year and Ole Miss has appeared like a team that is not ready to perform when the lights are
shining the brightest. This will be the first FBS home game for Mississippi but Alabama has
handled tough road environments well. ALABAMA BY 10
TEMPLE (-14) Ball State 12:00 PM
After a perfect regular season last year Ball State is off to a 0-5 start but there have been
encouraging signs in recent weeks. The Cardinals have covered in both road games this
season and probably deserved to cover last week, leading most of the way until a frantic
fourth quarter. There have been plenty of growing pains for freshmen QB Kelly Page but he
has shown some improvement and actually has completed passes at a higher rate than
Temple QB Vaughn Charlton. Temple has won two straight games in fairly impressive fashion
but this is not a team accustomed to playing games as heavy favorites. Temple has only
averaged 22 points per game which will make a double-digit spread difficult to cover and the
big home win over Buffalo that the Owls are getting a lot of credit for featured a big turnover
advantage including scores on an interception and a kickoff. TEMPLE BY 7
Vanderbilt (-11½) ARMY 11:00 AM
Both teams are 2-3 but Army has faced a much easier schedule. The Cadets played fairly
even statistical games the past two weeks but suffered losses and last week’s loss came
painfully as a lead was extinguished late. Army has failed to cover in four straight games but
value should be back this week. Vanderbilt is 2-0 ATS on the road this season but in three
different games the Commodores have failed to reach double-digits on the scoreboard. Both
teams have very good numbers on defense but this is a match-up where Army should have a
solid rushing edge and Vanderbilt is a fairly banged up team coming off a physical defensive
battle last week. Vanderbilt has been vulnerable against the run this season and laying
double-digits on the road will be problematic in this match-up. Army has been overmatched in
a few games but this will be a tougher than expected departure from the SEC for the
Commodores. Army has been a risky team to back but will hang on here. VANDERBLT BY 6
WYOMING (-10) New Mexico 1:00 PM
It looked like it would be a tough rebuilding year for New Mexico but few envisioned this
difficult of a start for a team that is typically a perennial bowl contender. New Mexico is
allowing 434 yards per game while gaining only 295 per game. The scoring numbers are
much worse as the Lobos have averaged less than 15 points per game. New Mexico has
covered in eight of the last nine meetings in this series but despite also going through a
coaching change, Wyoming is off to a 3-2 start. New Mexico shut out Wyoming last season
but signs point towards a Cowboy revenge win this year. Wyoming has developed a solid
rushing attack this season and defensively the Cowboys have been capable even with two Big
XII opponents already through the schedule. Wyoming does enter this game off back-to-back
S/U wins as underdogs while New Mexico enters coming off its first ATS win of the year. It
was still a 20-point loss however and 21-points were scored in the fourth quarter after the
game was out of hand. Texas Tech also lost its starting QB in the game so the Lobos should
not be given much credit for seemingly staying close. WYOMING BY 17
Houston (-3) MISSISSIPPI STATE 12:00 PM
The Cougars have posted incredible num bers on offense but last week the team could not
handle the pressure of being a highly ranked favorite in an ugly loss to UTEP. Houston has
two big wins on its resume and this would be another solid win over a major conference
program. Even with two Big XII foes under its belt the Cougars have played a much weaker
schedule than Mississippi State as the Bulldogs have already played three SEC games plus a
tough non-conference tilt with Georgia Tech last week. MSU has out-gained its opponents
each of the last three weeks but there is only one win to show for it. Mississippi State has
been the clearly superior defensive team but this could be a problematic match-up as the
Bulldogs may not have the personnel to keep up in a shootout. Mississippi State will have a
significant rushing edge in this game as The Bulldogs are running for 205 yards per game.
Houston is still overvalued and Mississippi State will be a in a favorable situation as a home
underdog with the ground advantage. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 7
Arizona (-2½) WASHINGTON 9:00 PM
Washington has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation but at 2-3 this is a team
that has been exposed for some serious defensive liabilities. Washington is allowing nearly
410 yards per game and the Huskies have been out-gained in each of the last four weeks
despite splitting the decisions. QB Locker has made some great plays but he is only
completing 57 percent of his passes. Arizona’s lone loss came on the road in a competitive
game at Iowa and that loss does not look too damaging at this point. Despite facing a second
straight road contest with long travel the Wildcats rebounded with an upset at Oregon State
and an off week precedes this match-up while Washington travels home after a narrow and
chaotic defeat at Notre Dame. Arizona has scored 48 points against Washington each of the
last two years and given the emergence of a reliable running game the Wildcats could put up
big numbers again this year. Washington has had far more national exposure but Arizona
could quietly emerge as one of the teams to beat in the Pac-10 and Washington is still a team
that has done plenty of losing despite coming up with one big win. ARIZONA BY 7
Bowling Green (-6½) KENT STATE 2:30 PM
After an opening upset over Troy, Bowling Green has now gone on to lose four consecutive
games. The Falcons are a pass-first team that averages only 75 yards per game on the
ground and the inability to control the clock has taken a toll as the defense is allowing a lot of
second-half points. QB Spencer Keith took most of the snaps last week for Kent State but
Bowling Green should expect to get more polished QB play this week. The Flashes have been
slightly stronger on defense but the drastic difference in strength of schedule likely more than
makes up the deficit. Kent State is scoring just 16 points per game despite facing fairly
marginal defensive opposition for the most part. Bowling Green has been an excellent ATS
team on the road in recent years with an 11-1 ATS mark in the last twelve games while on the
contrary Kent State has been lousy at home, covering in just three of the last 13 home games.
An underachieving Falcons team won with relative ease last season as the Flashes had
problems containing QB Sheehan in the air and on the ground. BOWLING GREEN BY 17
Stanford (-2½) OREGON STATE 6:00 PM
At 4-1 Stanford has taken great strides to getting back to the post season but a glance at the
schedule ahead will assure that it is far from a sure thing. The Cardinal is 3-0 in the Pac -10
coming off a huge win over UCLA last week and the lone loss on the season came in a game
that Stanford led most of the way. Oregon State bounced back from back-to-back losses with
an upset win at Arizona State in a game where the Beavers were significantly out-gained.
Stanford is dangerous even on the road because the running game has been incredibly
effective with an average of 222 yards per game. Oregon State features one of the better run
defenses in the nation however so this could be a tough match-up for both teams. These
teams should rate rather equally and this will be a big revenge game for the Beavers as
Stanford won to open the season last year in a game Oregon State dominated statistically. It
is difficult to say what Stanford will be able to do on the road as the best wins have come at
home and beating Washington State on the road offers little insight. Oregon State still holds a
strong home field edge and the Beavers are underrated right now . OREGON STATE BY 4
TENNESSEE (PK) Georgia 11:00 AM
Georgia already has two losses on the year but the Bulldogs have played one of the toughest
schedules in the nation. Georgia also owns one of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
While Georgia is scoring 27 points per game the yardage has not been terribly impressive and
the running game has been limited. Tennessee will be a tough team to run against and the
Volunteers will be desperate to avoid starting the SEC season 0-3. Tennessee has covered in
four of the last five meetings in this series and Georgia is now just 1-4 ATS on the season.
Tennessee has been a successful rushing team, averaging 188 yards per game and with the
QB mistakes that have been costly the Volunteers should aim to grind out this game making
an attractive situation for the home team. Georgia QB Joe Cox has already pitched six
interceptions and facing a play -making secondary could be problematic. Although Georgia’s
two losses have been close calls, the Bulldog wins have been narrow escapes and this is not
a team deserving of road favoritism in a still treacherous SEC venue. Tennessee has
problems but this is a must-win game. TENNESSEE BY 6
Marshall (-3) TULANE 2:30 PM
The Thundering Herd out-gained and out-rushed East Carolina at home last week but could
not pull off a third consecutive upset in a narrow defeat. Tulane took the lead late against
Army to make two straight wins after an ugly start to the season. These teams have not met
since ’06 and things have changed quite a bit for these squads. Tulane is more of a passoriented
offensive team this season and this will likely be the fifth straight game that the Wave
are out-rushed. Marshall is averaging 173 yards per game on the ground but finding the end
zone has been difficult, averaging just 20 points per game. Marshall has been very good
defensively outside of the Virginia Tech game but this is also a team that is not accustomed to
being a road favorite. The Herd is just 2-10-1 the last 13 games as road favorites, but the
Wave are just as bad as home underdogs. QB Joe Kemp is completing nearly 66 percent of
his passes this season but siding with the rushing team makes sense here particularly on the
quick turf. Tulane was fortunate to win last week and Marshall’s wins have been more
impressive so far this season. MARSHALL BY 7
TEXAS TECH (-17) Kansas State 12:00 PM
In last week’s easy win over New Mexico, Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts was knocked out and
he is unlikely to play in this game. Back-up Steven Sheffield played well in relief but there will
be an upgrade in competition this week. Texas Tech already has two losses after losing just
two games all of last season. The offense has put up big numbers but not overwhelming
numbers and the defense is allowing 362 yards per game. Statistically Kansas State looks
much better than the product on the field as the Wildcats have inflated numbers through two
FCS wins. Last week’s win over Iowa State was a big boost but certainly some breaks were
caught in that victory. Texas Tech has won and covered in each of the last five meetings
between these teams and the Wildcats have been a lousy road team in recent years. While
Texas Tech is using a new QB out of necessity, Kansas State made a QB switch last week as
well as Grant Gregory had an impressive game and provides mobility. Texas Tech still has
what it takes to pull away in this game and the QB injury will create great value in a match-up
featuring inexperience at the position on both sides. Texas Tech played Texas very tough and
was in position to beat Houston as well as being in position to win by a much wider margin last
week with a misleading final. TEXAS TECH BY 24
TEXAS (-31½) Colorado 6:15 PM
The Longhorns have had two weeks to prepare for this game but there is no doubt that there
has been attention placed on the game next week with Oklahoma. Texas has covered just
once this season but will still face huge spreads as the #2 team in the nation. Colorado has
played much better the last two games after a dreadful 0-2 start but the defensive numbers
are still concerning. Colorado has faced a far tougher schedule than Texas to this point and
last season the spread on this game was just 12 and not that much has changed between the
two squads. Colorado has not had significant success in this series but this could be a
favorable situation for the Buffaloes catching a ton of points. At 1-3 and likely 1-4 with a
couple of ugly national TV performances, Colorado will be significantly undervalued. This is a
team that projected as one of the contenders in the North division and this would be the
chance at redemption that Colorado and the struggling coaching staff needs. TEXAS BY 24
FLORIDA STATE (-2½) Georgia Tech 7:00 PM
The Seminoles already have three losses but the schedule rates as one of the toughest in the
nation. Big plays have killed Florida State this season and the defense is allowing over 400
yards per game. Georgia Tech was shutdown against Miami, a team that FSU probably
should have beaten but the Yellow Jackets appear back on track with back-to-back wins.
Georgia Tech was actually out-rushed last week and if not for five turnovers another loss was
likely in order. Last season Tech won 31-28 in Atlanta but Florida State has dominated the
series history. Florida State’s defense has been suspect and the Seminoles have struggled as
favorites. Georgia Tech is facing a second straight week on the road but Florida State enters
this game off a big national TV loss and so far this season FSU has followed up its losses with
poor performances. FSU has only played one great game this season and Georgia Tech is a
reliable underdog that will have a rushing advantage. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
OHIO STATE (-14½) Wisconsin 2:30 PM
The Badgers looked sloppy early this season and Wisconsin was flat out lucky to come back
and win against Fresno State but the Big Ten season has opened with two crisp wins over
quality opponents. Ohio State has dominated this season with four straight ATS wins since the
opening close call against Navy. The Buckeyes have had massive yardage advantages the
last three games but Wisconsin has averaged 433 yards per game and this could be the top
rushing team in the Big Ten. The Badger defense has struggled against the pass but Ohio
State has not featured the explosive aerial attack some expected. Wisconsin has had a lot of
success in this series and last season the Badgers season swung the wrong way following a
tough home loss to the Buckeyes. Ohio State has some injuries and a suspension to work
through on defense and Wisconsin should be backed as an undefeated underdog. Ohio State
is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight as home favorites. OHIO STATE BY 10
Oklahoma State (NL) TEXAS A&M 11:30 AM
Injuries are a big story for the Cowboys as two of the three hyped offensive playmakers for
Oklahoma State are questionable this week. Texas A&M had its undefeated run ruined last
week but the Aggies will have a rebound chance back at home. Oklahoma State won easily
last season but the game was almost dead even statistically as A&M showed some fight after
falling behind early. Two years ago the Aggies won as home underdogs and this could be a
similar situation. Both of these teams rush for over 200 yards per game but neither team has
played a quality schedule and much of the statistics are coming off mismatch wins.
Defensively both of these teams have shown a lot of weakness. A&M has out-gained all four
opponents this season and the Aggies own a proud history as home underdogs. Oklahoma
State has had an extra week to prepare for this game but this will also be the first road game
for the Cowboys which could be problematic. OKLAHOMA STATE BY 7
Arizona State (-19½) WASHINGTON STATE 4:00 PM
Washington State is allowing nearly 37 points and nearly 500 yards per game. Although the
Cougars did beat SMU in a wild comeback the best two performances in terms of yardage
came against USC and Stanford but both games still featured solid deficits. Arizona State has
now lost back-to-back games and this has been a team with a fragile psyche in past seasons.
ASU won 31-0 last season at home in this series and the Sun Devils have again been an
impressive defensive team on the season allowing just 16 points and 229 yards per game.
Arizona State has faced a far weaker schedule than Washington State has however. Playing
at home has not proven to be a significant advantage for Washington State and the injuries for
an already depth deprived team continue to add up. ARIZONA STATE BY 27
Ohio (-5) AKRON 5:00 PM
The Bobcats have won three of the last four games and the two losses on the season came in
respectable efforts against major conference schools. This will be the third straight week on
the road for Ohio however and Akron has won each of the last five home meetings between
these teams. Having to change QBs midseason is not an ideal situation but Akron QB Matt
Rodgers played much better in his last game even if the result was the same. Akron has had
an extra week of prep time for this game, valuable at this juncture given the personnel
changes. The Ohio offense has been a bit more productive but these teams have fairly similar
defensive numbers through schedules that rate comparably. Given Akron’s extra week to
ready for this game and the brutal third week in a row on the road, backing the home
underdog makes a lot of sense in a series where Akron has had a great deal of success. Ohio
was fortunate to win last week and the Bobcats are in a tough spot here. AKRON BY 3
Utah (-6½) COLORADO STATE 5:00 PM
Colorado State will be glad to be back at home after back-to-back road losses following a 3-0
start to the season. The Rams have been a productive offensive team but there are some
major concerns on the defensive side of the ball. Utah has just one loss and to its credit losing
by seven at Oregon is looking like a quality loss at this point as the Ducks have turned it on.
Utah has had little trouble in the three most recent meetings in this series and Colorado State
has not covered in any of the last six meetings. The Rams are a quality home underdog
however, featuring a 15-4 ATS run in those situations. Colorado State has come out way
ahead on the turnover margin so far this season yet there have been some disappointing
results. Utah is rested for this game and the Utes have been a very difficult team to pass
against. Utah is just 1-3 ATS this season but all three missed covers came by four points or
less. The Utes are still a very dangerous team in the Mountain West. UTAH BY 10
Oregon (-6½) UCLA 2:30 PM
The Ducks are on a roll after two suspect performances to open the season. The early season
controversy may have actually served to unite the team and provide better discipline and the
Ducks have been impressive three weeks in a row. Each of those wins came in a very
favorable home venue however and the one road game was the opening disaster in Boise.
UCLA lost its first game last week, falling behind early before a late rally fell short. The Bruins
have been carried by defense this season as the offense has had limited production through a
challenging schedule. UCLA has been a dominant home team, covering in 26 of the last 33
games at the Rose Bowl. Oregon has had some success in this series but the Ducks failed to
score the last trip to this stadium. Last year UCLA held the powerful Ducks offense in check
and won the yardage battle but fell just short on the scoreboard. Given UCLA’s astonishing
home records in recent years and Oregon’s lack of road credibility this looks like a good
opportunity to go against a Ducks team that is getting a lot of attention. UCLA BY 3
TOLEDO (-7½) Western Michigan 6:00 PM
The Rockets continue to put up big numbers and Toledo is back at home this week following
back-to-back road wins. Toledo has some of the best offensive numbers in the nation,
averaging 474 yards per game and over 32 points per game. Western Michigan was expected
to be one of the top teams in the MAC but the Broncos are a losing team at this juncture and
coming off a lopsided loss in Dekalb. QB Tim Hiller had three interceptions last week but this
still should be a productive offensive team. Toledo has been a great home team over the
years but those numbers have slipped a bit in recent seasons. Western Michigan has won
with relative ease each of the last three meetings and this could be a spot where Toledo gets
caught as Western is better than the numbers suggest. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 4
LOUISVILLE (NL) Southern Miss 6:30 PM
Southern Miss was upset in its last game after a strong start to the year and this is a team that
is now besieged with injuries. Statistically the Golden Eagles have been great on both sides of
the ball but a 52-0 win over Alcorn State has inflated those numbers. Southern Miss did play
tough at Kansas but it has taken a toll and this will now be a third straight road game.
Louisville has lost three consecutive games and the Cardinals played and lost with a back-up
QB last week. Given the injuries on both sides it makes sense to look towards the home team
that is likely undervalued following bad losses against quality competition. Southern Miss has
been a decent road performer but this could be an incomplete offense facing a brutal travel
draw. The Cardinals have had success against their former conference. LOUISVILLE BY 14
SOUTH CAROLINA (-12½) Kentucky 11:30 AM
Kentucky has lost badly the last two weeks but they have had to face Florida and Alabama.
Both games came at home but the Wildcats really did not have a chance. South Carolina has
won nine consecutive meetings in this series and statistically the Gamecocks have been
significantly better on both sides of the ball though the Wildcats have faced a tougher slate.
Four turnovers from the Gamecocks last season led to a very tight game between these
teams. It was a tie game fairly late in the fourth but South Carolina scored to win and cover on
a drive led by current Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia. The South Carolina offense has been
more efficient and less mistake prone this season and though a conference loss has already
been taken this is a team that could move into the #2 spot in the SEC East. Wins the first two
weeks over Miami, Ohio and Louisville look far less impressive at this point in the season and
the Wildcats could struggle in this match-up unless South Carolina gets greedy and is caught
looking ahead to Alabama next week. This will be the first road game of the season for
Kentucky so things could get worse. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 21
Auburn (-3) ARKANSAS 12:00 PM
The Razorbacks beat Auburn 25-22 last season in what at the time seemed like a significant
upset but both teams ended the year 5-7. Arkansas has lost twice already this season but the
schedule has been far tougher. Last week ’s result was impressive for the Razorbacks and this
is a team that is really putting things together on offense. Defensively there are some issues
but the schedule has also played a role in the marginal numbers. Auburn is back in the
national rankings with a 5-0 start but last week’s road win at Tennessee was the first truly
impressive win as the Tigers probably deserved to lose the West Virginia game. The Tigers
have one of the top rushing attacks in the nation but this is also a team that is giving up over
153 yards per game on the ground. Auburn has also benefited from one of the top turnover
margins in the nation, a reversal from last season. Although Arkansas is coming off an
impressive non-conference win, this is a team that is 0-2 in SEC play and there will be
significant motivation to win this game. The rushing statistics for Auburn are a bit inflated from
big numbers the first two weeks and the Tigers face a second straight tough road game in the
SEC, now also getting some attention with the national exposure. ARKANSAS BY 6
OKLAHOMA (-23½) Baylor 2:30 PM
Oklahoma has two shutout wins and two losses in a bizarre season and this game has been
robbed of what could have been a brilliant QB match-up due to injuries. The Sooners have
two losses despite allowing fewer than nine points per game on average and both losses have
incredibly come by just a single point. The defensive numbers are impressive but against
quality competition the offense has not been able to produce in line with past seasons. OU QB
Landry Jones has not had bad numbers but his inexperience has shown in key spots. Baylor’s
QB Injury is more devastating as Robert Griffin provides such an exciting dynamic to the
offense. The Bears were down to QB #3 last week and visiting Norman is a dangerous place
in that situation. Baylor was actually out-gained against Kent State last week which is
discouraging for a team that is 3-1 and could challenge for a bowl spot with an upset or two.
Oklahoma rebounded nicely from its last loss and though some season goals are lost this is
still a team capable of wining the Big XII, with a big game next. OKLAHOMA BY 35
Navy (-13) RICE 2:30 PM
After winning ten games last season Rice is 0-5 and there has been just one ATS win in that
mix. Last week the Owls played tough against Tulsa, allowing only 27 points in a game that
was tied at the half. Navy was able to win in overtime against Air Force in a defensive battle.
Navy has been one of the top rushing teams in the nation this season but the numbers have
not been as dominant this season. Rice is allowing nearly 460 yards per game but they have
faced two Big XII teams. Injuries have hit the Rice offense hard and Navy has been an
impressive road team over the years even in situations laying points. NAVY BY 16
Tcu (-11) AIR FORCE 6:30 PM
With Houston falling last week TCU may start to get some more attention and the Frogs have
passed all the early tests. Conference games like this particularly on the road could be the
greatest upset risk however. Air Force is coming off a tough loss and after losing badly last
season in this match-up this could be a big game for the Falcons. QB Tim Jefferson was back
in action for the Falcons last week and with another week he should be at 100 percent this
week. The Frogs are known for great defense but Air Force actually allowed few er points per
game this season. Air Force is likely to be an underdog with a rushing edge in this match-up
and TCU has rarely had big offensive numbers on the road. TCU BY 7
East Carolina (-6½) SMU 7:00 PM
The Pirates are thought of as a strong defensive team but ECU is allowing 366 yards and over
24 points per game on the year. The Pirates barely survived last week and now must face
another tricky road game. ECU has been out-gained in three of the last four games and
SMU’s defense has not really been that much worse statistically. The Mustang offense has
been plagued by interceptions but the production has been there while ECU has struggled to
score points. East Carolina has covered just once this season and it came by the slimmest of
margins and this is a team that is still overvalued based on the attention picked up from the
great early season run last year and the conference championship. EAST CAROLINA BY 4
Florida (-9½) LSU 7:00 PM
While LSU has survived some close calls and played some sloppy football at times the Tigers
came up with a big win last week in their best performance of the season. LSU has won
outright in three of the last five meetings including both games in that span in Baton Rouge.
While Florida unquestionably has great talent the Gators have not really proved much on the
field this season. Florida is yet to play a challenging road game and the offense struggled in
its toughest test so far. QB Tim Tebow is still listed as questionable for this game and the big
statistics have been produced against one of the weakest schedules in the nation. Going
against Florida has not proven to be wise but the value on a flawed but still dangerous LSU
team is significant in this match-up. LSU has lousy recent ATS numbers at home but Tigers
have been a home dog once in six plus years. FLORIDA BY 7
IOWA (-7½) Michigan 7:05 PM
The Hawkeyes had to survive a late rally last week while Michigan’s late rally was not enough,
stealing the potential 5-0 head-to-head battle this week. In its biggest games Iowa has played
extremely well but the Hawkeyes have nearly been upset twice as well. Michigan’s defense is
not holding up in conferenceplay as the Wolverines are allowing close to 400 yards per game.
The Wolverines are posting impressive rushing numbers however and freshmen QB Tate
Forcier actually has better numbers than Iowa’s veteran Ricky Stanzi. Michigan has won S/U
each of the last three years in this series and this will be a rare situation where Iowa is the
team laying points. The Hawkeyes have really struggled as a home favorite in recent years
despite being dominant in that role early in Coach Ferentz’s career with the team. Iowa is just
5-10 ATS the last four years and this could be too many points to give an offense that can put
up big points and score in a hurry. IOWA BY 4
Utah State (-13½) NEW MEXICO STATE 7:00 PM
Utah State has posted nearly 30 points per game while allowing just over 35 points per game
through a very tough schedule. The result is 1-3 with no FBS wins but the offense has posted
impressive numbers and has not been overwhelmingly overmatched even against three high
quality opponents. New Mexico State has been out-gained in every game this season and
through one of the absolute weakest schedules in the nation NMS has averaged just 15 points
per game. Sagarin rates the New Mexico State schedule 145th, which means about 25 FCS
teams have played tougher slates. This is a team with two wins however and the defense has
posted decent numbers. Last season Utah State won 47-2 in this series and there is no
discernible home field edge here. UTAH STATE BY 17
Utep (-3) MEMPHIS 7:00 PM
The Miners scored a big win last week but it was more about an overrated Houston team
struggling than UTEP playing great. The offense had a big day but this is easily one of the
worst defenses in the nation. In fairness UTEP has played an insane schedule by Conference
USA standards and at 1-0 in league play the Miners are still in line for season goals. Memphis
has just one FCS win to its credit with four S/U and ATS losses in the FBS match-ups. The
schedule has not been that difficult but there has been no rhythm on offense as three QBs
have seen significant time. Memphis has won the only two recent meetings between these
teams and considering trusting an awful defense in a road favorite role off a huge upset win in
which they were badly out-gained should raise a major red flag. MEMPHIS BY 4
SAN JOSE STATE (-4) Idaho 7:00 PM
The oddsmakers have a tough case with Idaho as this is clearly a team that has improved by
leaps and bounds from the past few seasons. Idaho won three games in the first two years
under Coach Akey but QB Nate Enderle is now experienced and he is playing like a true
veteran and one of the top signal-callers in this conference. Idaho is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS and they
have four outright wins as underdogs including wins over two Mountain West teams. The
Vandals won’t be confused for a great defensive team but the offense is averaging over 400
yards per game. San Jose State has faced a brutal schedule and the lone win came against
FCS Cal-Poly. The Spartans were really not competitive against three highly regarded teams
in non-conference play but this is a team that has won at least four WAC games each of the
last three years. SJSU has barely beat Idaho each of the past two years and the Vandals are
a confident group ready to keep this great run going. IDAHO BY 3
Byu (-16½) UNLV 9:00 PM
UNLV was out-gained by 427 yards last week in an ugly rivalry loss. Much of the production
came late as the dogs were certainly not called off but in a year where the Rebels expected to
be a bowl caliber team there has been only a narrow win over Hawaii. Last week ’s loss came
on the Heels of three straight games with late game drama so the Rebels just ran out of gas.
These teams have posted fairly similar offensive profiles so far this season and last year BYU
struggled in this match-up, winning by just seven in a very even statistical game. Look for
UNLV to bounce back as last week ’s loss was not as bad as it looked and it came against a
desperate Nevada team that was still winless. BYU BY 7
Fresno State (-9) HAWAII 11:00 AM
The Bulldogs are 1-3 but they have out-gained every opponent this season in a schedule that
currently features three undefeated nationally ranked teams. Hawaii’s wins came against
Central Arkansas and Washington State so there is little weight in the resume and the
Warriors were shut down last week in the conferenc e opener. Hawaii is never an easy team to
face on the road but it has got to the point where a little too much respect can be given to the
home team in Hawaii games. This has been a closely contested game the past two years but
Fresno should have immense match-up edges here and the Bulldogs are desperate for a win
after tough losses in big games . FRESNO STATE BY 21
Florida International (-3) WESTERN KENTUCKY 3:00 PM
Something has to give in this battle of 0-4 teams. Both teams have covered twice but both
squads have been out-gained in every game. The schedule has been brutally tough for both
teams and the defensive numbers have shown it. Western Kentucky has been the better
rushing team this season which could allow for a home upset. WKU has had two weeks to
prepare for this game and this will be a key spot on the schedule for the Hilltoppers as the
opportunities for wins are rare. WESTERN KENTUCKY BY 4
LOUISIANA (-6) North Texas 6:00 PM
These teams mirror each other defensively but North Texas has been the superior offensive
team even with QB Riley Dodge missing some time. North Texas has dominated the ATS
numbers in this series but the Ragin’ Cajuns were easy winners last season. Louisiana has
been a tough team to beat at home but there is a significant injury report for the ULL squad
and North Texas appears to be rested and healthy and ready to resume what opened as a
very promising start to the season. UNT has out-gained three of four foes this season with the
exception being Alabama and Louisiana is not a great rushing force this season. North Texas
will be a dangerous underdog this season and Louisiana’s early season upset win over
Kansas State is pulling a little too much weight with this number. NORTH TEXAS BY 3
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
************************************************** ********************
RATING 5 ARIZONA (-6) over Houston
RATING 4 CINCINNATI (+9) over Baltimore
RATING 3 BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
RATING 2 CAROLINA (-4) over Washington
RATING 1 JACKSONVILLE (NL) over Seattle
************************************************** ********************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, and lines are obviously subject to change
BYE WEEK: CHICAGO, GREEN BAY, NEW ORLEANS, SAN DIEGO
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2009
Minnesota (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Rams defense has played respectably this season but St. Louis can not get anything
going on offense. St. Louis has scored 24 points through four games and last week the team
surrendered three defensive touchdowns. Opponents are able to play up on Stephen Jackson
as he is the only viable threat in the offense and Kyle Boller did not make many plays at QB
last week. This would be a great spot to go-against Minnesota as the Vikings will face a short
week coming off all the hoopla of the huge Monday night game. That result will certainly
impact this line and our opinion but St. Louis will be a tough team to back against a Vikings
team with a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Minnesota did not play particularly well
in the first two weeks of the season but still won and covered as road favorites while St. Louis
would likely have to score a season high to cover in this game. VIKINGS BY 13
Dallas (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chiefs were once a formidable home underdog but Kansas City failed getting a lot of
points last week in a game that was not as close as the final margin. The Chiefs have a very
limited running game and the passing attack has not developed enough in the system yet.
Kansas City has faced a brutal schedule and it is not about to get any easier. There could be
some breaks with injuries this week as Dallas RBs Felix Jones and Marion Barber are not
likely 100 percent. WR Roy Williams is also listed as questionable which could make a Dallas
team that has only scored 24 points on offense the last two weeks even more suspect. This
will be the second straight road game and Dallas will certainly be overvalued in this match-up
against the winless Chiefs. Kansas City has shown the most life of the 0-4 teams even if it has
been with inconsistency so this could be an underdog that stays close. COWBOYS BY 7
CAROLINA (-4) Washington (37½) 12:00 PM
Coming off a bye week should be a favorable situation for the winless Panthers and catching
a Washington squad with serious problems on offense should be a favorable situation.
Washington has only scored 56 points in four games and there continue to be far too many
missed opportunities on offense. Washington got a much needed win last week but it was
unimpressive given the situation, playing at home against a winless team with some of the
worst defensive numbers in the league and facing Josh Johnson’s first career start.
Washington does have a solid defense but Carolina could be poised for a big day after a
turnover riddled start to the season through a tough schedule. PANTHERS BY 10
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Tampa Bay 12:00 PM
Last week was another loss for the Buccaneers but the result was much more encouraging. In
his first career start QB Josh Johnson showed some promise and he does provide a different
dynamic with his mobility, something that is needed given some of the protection problems. It
could be blamed on the struggling Washington offense, but the Tampa Bay defense played its
best game and made a few big plays though it was not enough. A rested Eagles team will play
as significant favorites and at present it is unclear what the QB and RB situations will be for
Philadelphia. QB Donovan McNabb is likely to return to action but there could be some rust.
The two Eagles wins have come against teams that are 0-7 and Philadelphia lost badly to the
Saints so it is unclear if this team really can justify its steep favoritism. The Eagles have
allowed 72 points in three games so this may not be the Eagles defense of past years as a
few of the key departures seem to be having an impact elsewhere. EAGLES BY 7
NY GIANTS (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
Eli Manning left the last game with a foot injury and his status is uncertain though early reports
have been encouraging. The Giants cruised to another win last week to move to 4-0 and this
looks like the most complete team in the league though the schedule has not been overly
difficult. A big game with the Saints could be a great undefeated showdown next week and
this should be an easy home game for the Giants after three consecutive road wins. New York
has not been great in role as a huge favorite and the wins over Washington and Dallas were
very tight so lopsided wins the last two weeks against teams that are now both 0-4 should not
be given too much weight. The Raiders have scored just 42 points in four games and the
offense has not come close to recapturing the steady play that was featured in the opening
week. New York is tough to go-against right now at any number. GIANTS BY 16
BUFFALO (-6) Cleveland (39½) 12:00 PM
The Browns appeared to have a win in its grasp and then took momentum into OT with a blocked
PAT but Cleveland is now 0 -4. Cleveland had 395 yards of offense against a Cincinnati defense that
had been playing well and the offense appears much more fluid with Derek Anderson at QB even if
he makes some mistakes. Jamal Lewis may still be injured for th is game but Jerome Harrison made
an impact in the backfield last week. Despite facing an unproven QB the Bills were blown out last
week in Miami. At 1-3, a season that started with a great performance may be turning for the worse
quickly. In his first game back Marshawn Lynch had a limited impact but a three interception game
from QB Trent Edwards was too much to overcome. Buffalo is still tough at home. BILLS BY 10
BALTIMORE (-9) Cincinnati (42) 12:00 PM
The media was a little quick to anoint the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC and
Baltimore came up short in New England. The Ravens continue to move the ball effectively
but this is clearly not the same Ravens defense, having allowed 20 points per game. The
Ravens have covered in nine of the last ten games as favorites but this will be a steep price
going against a Cincinnati team tied with Baltimore on top of the standings. The Bengals
struggled last week but division rivalry games take on a different meaning and Cincinnati
should not be penalized for being a bit flat after a huge win over the Steelers. This is still a
quality team that could cause problems for the Ravens. Baltimore’s wins have included two 0-
4 teams so this is a team being overvalued right now. RAVENS BY 3
Pittsburgh (NL) DETROIT 12:00 PM
The Lions were tied 21-21 before eventually being doubled up 48-24 against Chicago. Detroit
thoroughly out-gained the Bears but an interception setting up a very short field and a kickoff
return TD were mistakes the Lions can not afford to make. QB Matthew Stafford and WR
Calvin Johnson were both injured last week as well and if they must miss time in this game it
will be a very tough week. Pittsburgh finally got a rushing attack going en route to a big win
that ended up close at the end. Detroit has allowed 134 points on the season so Pittsburgh
should have plenty of scoring opportunities. The Steelers have only scored two more points
than the Lions this season and Pittsburgh would potentially be vulnerable to the Detroit pass
attack if healthy. Detroit has improved considerably but there still is a long ways to go and too
many encouraging first halves have been met with second half failures. STEELERS BY 14
SAN FRANCISCO (-2½) Atlanta (42½) 3:05 PM
The 49ers could easily be 4-0 and a commanding lead in the NFC West has been developed
with a first round sweep of the three division rivals. San Francisco scored three defensive
touchdowns last week and even without RB Gore the offense has been able to make enough
plays. Atlanta has had two weeks to soak in the first loss of the season. In three games the
Falcons have only scored four more points than they have allowed and despite a reputation as
a strong offensive team the Falcons are averaging just 19 points per game. The rushing attack
has fallen short of expectations this season and it will be another tough match-up on the
ground this week. San Francisco’s win last week was deceptively impressive with the
turnovers creating most of the points. Atlanta could be a dangerous dog. FALCONS BY 3
New England (-3½) DENVER (42½) 3:15 PM
Denver may not have played the most difficult schedule but last week’s win gained some
credibility and the Broncos have allowed just 26 points in the 4-0 start. Kyle Orton has not
made mistakes at QB and the Broncos have two RBs nearly at 250 yards already although
Correll Buckhalter left last week’s game with an ankle injury. New England moved to 3-1 with
a big win last week and this could be a difficult spot facing long travel and playing as a road
favorite in a tough venue. New England lost its only road game this season, scoring just nine
points and the Patriots have been a very average defensive team. The coaching match-up
brings a lot of intrigue but Denver clearly is going in the right direction. BRONCOS BY 3
ARIZONA (-6) Houston (48) 3:15 PM
The Cardinals are rested after a 1-2 start and an ugly loss in primetime. Arizona should have
an opportunity to put points on the board in this match-up as the Houston defense has been a
severe disappointment so far this season. The Texans have allowed 92 points in four games
and on offense the running game has had very little impact which has often left QB Matt
Schaub in less than favorable situations. Two of the best receivers in the NFL will face off in
this match-up and Houston’s effective win over Oakland should not carry tremendous weight.
Arizona has had to play a tough early season schedule and this is a team that could really get
on track in this match-up coming out of the bye week . CARDINALS BY 14
SEATTLE (NL) Jacksonville 3:15 PM
Numerous injuries for the Seahawks make this a problematic game even though the Jaguars
will face significant travel. After an 0-2 start the Jaguars have looked like a contender the past
two weeks, scoring 68 points in two impressive wins. The Jaguars have not been great on
defense but they have also played four very good offensive teams and the schedule features
teams that are a combined 1-15 the next four games so this is a team that can start to make
some noise in the AFC. Seattle normally holds an excellent home field edge but that can
change with a back-up QB and several key injuries on defense. Jacksonville’s passing game
has really turned it on the last two weeks and could have a big day. JAGUARS BY 7
Indianapolis (-3½) TENNESSEE (46) 7:20 PM
The Titans have hit rock bottom as three close losses that featured some sloppy play and
missed opportunities turned into a blowout loss last week taking the 13-3 2008 team to 0-4 in
2009. Tennessee’s defense was one of the best in the NFL last season but the Titans have
allowed 108 points in four games. Tennessee is still a very tough team to run against but with
the groove that Peyton Manning is in, the Titans could get shredded this week. The Colts have
delivered twice in primetime games already this season and although this looks like a team
with some vulnerability, Indianapolis just keeps winning. The trends would support the Titans
in this spot but Tennessee has been an undisciplined team that will have a hard time keeping
pace in this match-up unless turnovers are forced, a tough task vs. Manning. COLTS BY 6
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2009
NY Jets (-1) MIAMI (37) 7:30 PM
With Chad Henne at QB the Dolphins scored a season high in points to pick up the first win of the
season. Miami has out-scored its opponents for the year despite the 1 -3 record and the Dolphins
have had to play a difficult schedule. Some would say the Jets were exposed last week after
catching some breaks in the 3-0 start but after two turnovers turned directly into touchdowns New
York battled back and made the Saints work for the win. The New York defense held Drew Brees to
just 190 yards and no touchdowns so even if the Jets have been a bit lucky the defense is certainly
doing some things right. The Jets have had overwhelming success in this series and the defense
should cause problems for the young Miami QB. These teams are well matched but while the Jets
have found ways to win, Miami has found ways to lose with last week the exception. JETS BY 4
entering the 4th quarter but
pushed the lead to 35-17
seemingly for the cover but
Colorado scored on a long pass in
the closing seconds. BYU led just
21-10 entering t
Playbook Tracking
FYI:
I have been tracking Playbook Football for 2009:
Week 5 Picks
3* USC Won
3* Titans Loss
3* Patriots Under Loss
4* Michagan State Won
4* Patriots Won
4* Bears NFL Over Won
5* Nevada Won
5* Saints Won
5* Broncos NFL Over Loss
For the Week
3* 2-1
4* 3-0
5* 2-1
+14 Units Much Better
For the Year
3* 8-5
4* 7-6
5* 4-9
-12 units still inthe RED but heating up
Awesome Angle 4-2
FYI:
I have been tracking Playbook Football for 2009:
Week 5 Picks
3* USC Won
3* Titans Loss
3* Patriots Under Loss
4* Michagan State Won
4* Patriots Won
4* Bears NFL Over Won
5* Nevada Won
5* Saints Won
5* Broncos NFL Over Loss
For the Week
3* 2-1
4* 3-0
5* 2-1
+14 Units Much Better
For the Year
3* 8-5
4* 7-6
5* 4-9
-12 units still inthe RED but heating up
Awesome Angle 4-2
POINTWISE RED SHEET
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 10, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 6
Arizona State 45 - WASHINGTON STATE 10 - (5:00 EDT) -- Line opened at ArizSt minus 17½, and now
minus 19½. Tough spot for punchless Cougars (6 pts each of last 2 wks), who catch the
talented Devils off a pair of tough losses, who will look to turn formerly hopeful season
completely around this week. Went down to Oregon St last week, despite 26-14 FD, & 406-
295 yd edges, & rank among the best defensive squads in the nation. Contrast that to
WashSt owning the nation's worst stop unit. Normally easy to look past squads such as
this, but it won't happen here. The Coogs are now hurting at QB. Suns do it up right.
RATING: ARIZONA STATE 89
Fresno State 41 - HAWAII 20 - (11:00) -- Line opened at FresnoSt minus 8, and is now minus 9. The term
"under-the-radar" certainly applies to these Bulldogs, whose 1-3 record hardly deserves
much recognition. However, their 3 setbacks have come vs the likes of Wisconsin (in OT at
Madison), BoiseSt (nation's 6th ranked squad), & at Cincinnati (ranked 8th). Despite that
formidable trio, Fresno ranks among the best overland teams in the nation (262 RYpg vs
those 3), headed by the spectacular Mathews (148 RYpg). The 'Bows glad to be home, but
will be without their only "O" weapon, QB Alexander. FSt's chance to explode.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89
OHIO STATE 38 - Wisconsin 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 16, and is now minus 14. Love the
2-pt line swing in our favor, after having to accept a push with last week's top Red Sheet play,
Tulsa, with a 3½-pt line shift from Wednesday to Saturday. Oh, well, it comes with the
territory. These Bucks have been overwhelming since their excruciating loss to USC, with
overland edges of 247-13, 236-82, & 219-18, with a 101-14 combined score. The Badgers
bring a perfect 5-0 record into this fray, so again full focus for OSU. Realize RB Clay & QB
Tolzien present a challenge, but UW allowing 29 ppg in its last 8 lined tilts.
RATING: OHIO STATE 88
SOUTH CAROLINA 31 - Kentucky 10 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SouthCarolina minus 12, and is now minus
11½. First road game for the Wildcats since their opening day rout of defenseless Miami-
Ohio. Have since barely squeaked by 1-3 Louisville, before entering caldron of back-to-back
games with top-ranked Florida & 3rd ranked Alabama. Sure, they've been a respectable 18-
12 ATS as SEC double digit dogs, but taking on this defensive grinder (held OleMiss to 14
FDs & 10 pts), on the heels of those 2 is asking too much, especially off a 3-game homestand.
Another solid performance from the Ol' Ball Coach's minions.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88
NEVADA 48 - Louisiana Tech 20 - (9:00 Friday) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 6½, and is now minus 7½.
Loved the play of the 'Pack in 63-28 blasting of UNLV last week (30-pt cover), as they rolled
up 773 yds, including 559 RYs, with Ball, Kaepernick, & Lippincott reaching 170 RYs. As
figured, they resembled the runner with the weights removed, after road games vs NotreDame
& ColoradoSt, & a hoster vs powerful Missouri. They took full advantage of Vegas, in that
one, & should do likewise vs a Bulldog team which has lost its 2 RGs to date by 11 & 11 pts
ATS. Solid Tech home win last week, keeps line in sight.
RATING: NEVADA 88
Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 13 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is now minus
3½. Yes, we are quite aware of the fact that we've yet to be on the right side of a game
involving these Titans, who, thus far, have been a monumental flop. Their formerly frightening
defense is slipping by the week, as they've been mauled for 34, 24, & 37 pts the last 3
weeks. The defection of Haynesworth has obviously taken its toll, & facing this smoking Colt
(13 straight regular season wins) certainly not the prescription for turning things around.
Manning: 69-of-99 for 1,035 yds (15 yds per completion) past 3 weeks.
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Toledo, Alabama, Florida -- NFL: San Fran, Philadelphia, Miami
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): LSU (+11½ to +9); UConn (+10 to +8½); Wisc (+16 to +14);
ArizSt (-17½ to -19½); UtahSt (-11 to -13); BYU (-14 to -16) - NFL: Pitt (-9½ to -10½; Dallas (-7 to -8½) -
TIME CHANGES: Pitt/UConn: 3:30; Ala/Miss: 3:30; Hous/MissSt: 12:30; Tenn/Ga: 12:30; Tol/WM: 7:00; Aub/
Ark: 12:00 - KEY INJURIES: Ariz RB Grigsby (shoulder) prob; Bay QB Szymanski (shoulder) ??, RB Finley
(ankle) ??; Conn QB Endres will start; Fla QB Tebow (concussion) ??; HI QB Alexander (knee) out for yr;
IowaSt RB Robinson (groin) prob; Kans RB Sharp (calf) prob; LV QB Burke (sternum) prob; MD RB Scott
(wrist) out for yr; Memp QB Bass (shoulder) prob; Mich QB Forcier (ribs) prob; Nev RB Taua (elbow) prob;
Okla QB Bradford (shoulder) ??, & WR Broyles (shoulder) out 2-4 wks; OkSt RB Hunter (ankle) doubtful, &
WR Bryant (hamstring) ??; Oregon QB Masoli (knee) doubtful, & RB James (ankle) prob; SoMiss QB Davis
(ankle) out for yr, RB Fletcher (groin) prob; TT QB Potts (concussion) doubtful; UCLA QB Prince (jaw) ??;
UNLV QB Clayton (shoulder) prob; WashSt QB Tuel (back) ?? - NFL: Brown RB Lewis (leg) ??; Lion QB
Stafford (knee) out 1-2 wks, WR Johnson (quad) prob; Giant QB Manning (heel) prob; Raider RB McFadden
(knee) out 2-4 wks; Eagle QB McNabb (ribs) prob, RB Westbrook (ankle) prob; Niner RB Gore (ankle) doubt;
Seattle QB Hasselbeck (ribs) ??; Ram QB Bulger (rotator cuff) ??.....
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
OCTOBER 10, 2009 VOLUME 41, NUMBER 6
Arizona State 45 - WASHINGTON STATE 10 - (5:00 EDT) -- Line opened at ArizSt minus 17½, and now
minus 19½. Tough spot for punchless Cougars (6 pts each of last 2 wks), who catch the
talented Devils off a pair of tough losses, who will look to turn formerly hopeful season
completely around this week. Went down to Oregon St last week, despite 26-14 FD, & 406-
295 yd edges, & rank among the best defensive squads in the nation. Contrast that to
WashSt owning the nation's worst stop unit. Normally easy to look past squads such as
this, but it won't happen here. The Coogs are now hurting at QB. Suns do it up right.
RATING: ARIZONA STATE 89
Fresno State 41 - HAWAII 20 - (11:00) -- Line opened at FresnoSt minus 8, and is now minus 9. The term
"under-the-radar" certainly applies to these Bulldogs, whose 1-3 record hardly deserves
much recognition. However, their 3 setbacks have come vs the likes of Wisconsin (in OT at
Madison), BoiseSt (nation's 6th ranked squad), & at Cincinnati (ranked 8th). Despite that
formidable trio, Fresno ranks among the best overland teams in the nation (262 RYpg vs
those 3), headed by the spectacular Mathews (148 RYpg). The 'Bows glad to be home, but
will be without their only "O" weapon, QB Alexander. FSt's chance to explode.
RATING: FRESNO STATE 89
OHIO STATE 38 - Wisconsin 10 - (3:30) -- Line opened at OhioSt minus 16, and is now minus 14. Love the
2-pt line swing in our favor, after having to accept a push with last week's top Red Sheet play,
Tulsa, with a 3½-pt line shift from Wednesday to Saturday. Oh, well, it comes with the
territory. These Bucks have been overwhelming since their excruciating loss to USC, with
overland edges of 247-13, 236-82, & 219-18, with a 101-14 combined score. The Badgers
bring a perfect 5-0 record into this fray, so again full focus for OSU. Realize RB Clay & QB
Tolzien present a challenge, but UW allowing 29 ppg in its last 8 lined tilts.
RATING: OHIO STATE 88
SOUTH CAROLINA 31 - Kentucky 10 - (12:30) -- Line opened at SouthCarolina minus 12, and is now minus
11½. First road game for the Wildcats since their opening day rout of defenseless Miami-
Ohio. Have since barely squeaked by 1-3 Louisville, before entering caldron of back-to-back
games with top-ranked Florida & 3rd ranked Alabama. Sure, they've been a respectable 18-
12 ATS as SEC double digit dogs, but taking on this defensive grinder (held OleMiss to 14
FDs & 10 pts), on the heels of those 2 is asking too much, especially off a 3-game homestand.
Another solid performance from the Ol' Ball Coach's minions.
RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88
NEVADA 48 - Louisiana Tech 20 - (9:00 Friday) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 6½, and is now minus 7½.
Loved the play of the 'Pack in 63-28 blasting of UNLV last week (30-pt cover), as they rolled
up 773 yds, including 559 RYs, with Ball, Kaepernick, & Lippincott reaching 170 RYs. As
figured, they resembled the runner with the weights removed, after road games vs NotreDame
& ColoradoSt, & a hoster vs powerful Missouri. They took full advantage of Vegas, in that
one, & should do likewise vs a Bulldog team which has lost its 2 RGs to date by 11 & 11 pts
ATS. Solid Tech home win last week, keeps line in sight.
RATING: NEVADA 88
Indianapolis 27 - TENNESSEE 13 - (8:20 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is now minus
3½. Yes, we are quite aware of the fact that we've yet to be on the right side of a game
involving these Titans, who, thus far, have been a monumental flop. Their formerly frightening
defense is slipping by the week, as they've been mauled for 34, 24, & 37 pts the last 3
weeks. The defection of Haynesworth has obviously taken its toll, & facing this smoking Colt
(13 straight regular season wins) certainly not the prescription for turning things around.
Manning: 69-of-99 for 1,035 yds (15 yds per completion) past 3 weeks.
RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): TCU, Toledo, Alabama, Florida -- NFL: San Fran, Philadelphia, Miami
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest): LSU (+11½ to +9); UConn (+10 to +8½); Wisc (+16 to +14);
ArizSt (-17½ to -19½); UtahSt (-11 to -13); BYU (-14 to -16) - NFL: Pitt (-9½ to -10½; Dallas (-7 to -8½) -
TIME CHANGES: Pitt/UConn: 3:30; Ala/Miss: 3:30; Hous/MissSt: 12:30; Tenn/Ga: 12:30; Tol/WM: 7:00; Aub/
Ark: 12:00 - KEY INJURIES: Ariz RB Grigsby (shoulder) prob; Bay QB Szymanski (shoulder) ??, RB Finley
(ankle) ??; Conn QB Endres will start; Fla QB Tebow (concussion) ??; HI QB Alexander (knee) out for yr;
IowaSt RB Robinson (groin) prob; Kans RB Sharp (calf) prob; LV QB Burke (sternum) prob; MD RB Scott
(wrist) out for yr; Memp QB Bass (shoulder) prob; Mich QB Forcier (ribs) prob; Nev RB Taua (elbow) prob;
Okla QB Bradford (shoulder) ??, & WR Broyles (shoulder) out 2-4 wks; OkSt RB Hunter (ankle) doubtful, &
WR Bryant (hamstring) ??; Oregon QB Masoli (knee) doubtful, & RB James (ankle) prob; SoMiss QB Davis
(ankle) out for yr, RB Fletcher (groin) prob; TT QB Potts (concussion) doubtful; UCLA QB Prince (jaw) ??;
UNLV QB Clayton (shoulder) prob; WashSt QB Tuel (back) ?? - NFL: Brown RB Lewis (leg) ??; Lion QB
Stafford (knee) out 1-2 wks, WR Johnson (quad) prob; Giant QB Manning (heel) prob; Raider RB McFadden
(knee) out 2-4 wks; Eagle QB McNabb (ribs) prob, RB Westbrook (ankle) prob; Niner RB Gore (ankle) doubt;
Seattle QB Hasselbeck (ribs) ??; Ram QB Bulger (rotator cuff) ??.....
Winning Points NFL
NFL
****BEST BET
New England over *Denver by 21
Denver’s record says 4-0.The Broncos have yielded an average of 6.5 points
per game.Are the Broncos really this good? Our answer is a resounding NO.
The Broncos stole their opener from Cincinnati. They followed that up
with victories against Cleveland and Oakland – combined record of 1-7 –
and then beat a flat Dallas squad traveling on a short week at home. It
wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos lose their next four games starting
with this one.Denver won’t be able to hide a patchwork secondary and
a front seven composed of mainly castoffs against Tom Brady, who is getting
more in sync having played four games since his knee injury and with
Wes Welker back healthy. Denver is 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
The Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS following a victory. It’s pupil against master.
Broncos’ first year head coach Josh McDaniels was Bill Belichick’s quarterback
coach last year. Belichick will have his team up for this matchup.
Denver is the only team Belichick has a losing record against.The Patriots
destroyed the Broncos last year, 41-7. New England has yet to give up 300
yards passing this season. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is just a glorified
game manager. He’s at his best when he’s staying out of his own way by not
throwing downfield. The Broncos could be without their most effective
back this season, Correll Buckhalter. He suffered an ankle injury last
Sunday.The Patriots have covered eight of the past nine times they’ve been
a road favorite of four or more points. The Patriots could even get back
their best defensive player, linebacker Jerod Mayo (check status). NEW ENGLAND 31-10.
***BEST BET
*Carolina over Washington by 18
When we last saw the Redskins away from FedEx Field, they were helping
Detroit end its 19-game loss streak.That shouldn’t be so shocking considering
it was the fifth straight time Washington has lost on the road. The
Redskins have been held to 20 points or less in 11 of their past 12 games.
The Jim Zorn watch is in full blossom. A narrow home victory (and noncover)
against a bad Tampa Bay squad at home last week changes nothing.
Washington has lost eight of its last 12 games. The Redskins are deficient
both in the run game, missing their best run-blocking guard Randy Thomas,
and in their passing attack with inadequate pass protection and Santana
Moss as the lone big-play threat. Quarterback Jason Campbell isn’t good
enough to produce points unless he has multiple weapons, which he doesn’t.
Clinton Portis is banged-up and clearly not as good as he once was.The
Panthers come off their bye a desperate team at 0-3, their worst start in 11
years. Jake Delhomme has committed 15 turnovers in his last 16 games and
injuries have left the Panthers vulnerable to power ground attacks. They
entered their bye ranked 29th in run defense.During their time off, though,
the Panthers did something about this signing 340-pound, 14-year veteran
run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Delhomme is on a short leash despite recently
signing a big contract extension. He should be fine in this matchup with
extra time to prepare and at home.The Panthers have a strong 1-2 running
punch of DeAngelo Williams and a now-healthy Jonathan Stewart. Steve
Smith remains a premier deep threat. John Fox gives Carolina a coaching
edge. CAROLINA 30-12.
**PREFERRED
Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 2
If it weren’t for a fluke, tipped-pass that went for a late touchdown, the
Bengals would be unbeaten. Unlike Denver, though, the Bengals’ record
isn’t a fluke. Cincinnati has a very talented defense with just about every
position manned by a high draft choice. The Ravens are strong, too. This
key division showdown should be a close battle. The line is inflated.The
Ravens’ first two home games were against Kansas City and Cleveland, two
teams that have yet to win a game in eight tries. Baltimore’s weakness is its
cornerbacks are not nearly as good as in previous seasons. Carson Palmer
can attack them. He has a big weapon with Chad Ochocinco.The Ravens
haven’t allowed a running back to gain 100 yards against them in an NFLhigh
39 straight games. Cedric Benson probably won’t end that streak, but
he’s emerged as a credible back that the Ravens can’t ignore in order to
blitz all out against Palmer.The Bengals have showed their heart, desire and
improvement upsetting Green Bay as a similarly-priced road ‘dog and then
coming from behind to edge Pittsburgh. Cincinnati did struggle with the
Browns last week, but it was an obvious flat spot in between Pittsburgh
and this huge matchup. CINCINNATI 23-21.
Dallas over *Kansas City by 17
This isn’t so much a play on Dallas as it is a strong fade on the Chiefs, losers
of 14 of their last 15 at Arrowhead Stadium. This includes dropping
their last eight home contests. The Cowboys have too much team speed
and athleticism for a slow Kansas City offense that has lost faith already.
Todd Haley is another of these first-year head coaches in over his head.
He’s already impaired the confidence level of quarterback Matt Cassel.
Dwayne Bowe, the team’s only legitimate receiving threat, is slowed by a
hamstring injury and has lost his edge, too, because of Haley’s head games.
The Chiefs have nowhere to turn because Larry Johnson isn’t doing the job
on the ground, averaging less than three yards per carry. He’s only scored
two touchdowns in his last 12 games. It’s not like the Chiefs have a dominant
defense that can pick up the slack. Tony Romo should find Kansas
City’s porous secondary to his liking. Look for Romo to play better being
away from the pressure of being in the spotlight in Dallas’ new billion dollar
stadium. Dallas won’t have Felix Jones. However, Marion Barber and
underrated Tashard Choice are good running backs and Jason Witten is one
of the best tight ends in the NFL. DALLAS 30-13.
NFL
****BEST BET
New England over *Denver by 21
Denver’s record says 4-0.The Broncos have yielded an average of 6.5 points
per game.Are the Broncos really this good? Our answer is a resounding NO.
The Broncos stole their opener from Cincinnati. They followed that up
with victories against Cleveland and Oakland – combined record of 1-7 –
and then beat a flat Dallas squad traveling on a short week at home. It
wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos lose their next four games starting
with this one.Denver won’t be able to hide a patchwork secondary and
a front seven composed of mainly castoffs against Tom Brady, who is getting
more in sync having played four games since his knee injury and with
Wes Welker back healthy. Denver is 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.
The Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS following a victory. It’s pupil against master.
Broncos’ first year head coach Josh McDaniels was Bill Belichick’s quarterback
coach last year. Belichick will have his team up for this matchup.
Denver is the only team Belichick has a losing record against.The Patriots
destroyed the Broncos last year, 41-7. New England has yet to give up 300
yards passing this season. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton is just a glorified
game manager. He’s at his best when he’s staying out of his own way by not
throwing downfield. The Broncos could be without their most effective
back this season, Correll Buckhalter. He suffered an ankle injury last
Sunday.The Patriots have covered eight of the past nine times they’ve been
a road favorite of four or more points. The Patriots could even get back
their best defensive player, linebacker Jerod Mayo (check status). NEW ENGLAND 31-10.
***BEST BET
*Carolina over Washington by 18
When we last saw the Redskins away from FedEx Field, they were helping
Detroit end its 19-game loss streak.That shouldn’t be so shocking considering
it was the fifth straight time Washington has lost on the road. The
Redskins have been held to 20 points or less in 11 of their past 12 games.
The Jim Zorn watch is in full blossom. A narrow home victory (and noncover)
against a bad Tampa Bay squad at home last week changes nothing.
Washington has lost eight of its last 12 games. The Redskins are deficient
both in the run game, missing their best run-blocking guard Randy Thomas,
and in their passing attack with inadequate pass protection and Santana
Moss as the lone big-play threat. Quarterback Jason Campbell isn’t good
enough to produce points unless he has multiple weapons, which he doesn’t.
Clinton Portis is banged-up and clearly not as good as he once was.The
Panthers come off their bye a desperate team at 0-3, their worst start in 11
years. Jake Delhomme has committed 15 turnovers in his last 16 games and
injuries have left the Panthers vulnerable to power ground attacks. They
entered their bye ranked 29th in run defense.During their time off, though,
the Panthers did something about this signing 340-pound, 14-year veteran
run-stuffer Hollis Thomas. Delhomme is on a short leash despite recently
signing a big contract extension. He should be fine in this matchup with
extra time to prepare and at home.The Panthers have a strong 1-2 running
punch of DeAngelo Williams and a now-healthy Jonathan Stewart. Steve
Smith remains a premier deep threat. John Fox gives Carolina a coaching
edge. CAROLINA 30-12.
**PREFERRED
Cincinnati over *Baltimore by 2
If it weren’t for a fluke, tipped-pass that went for a late touchdown, the
Bengals would be unbeaten. Unlike Denver, though, the Bengals’ record
isn’t a fluke. Cincinnati has a very talented defense with just about every
position manned by a high draft choice. The Ravens are strong, too. This
key division showdown should be a close battle. The line is inflated.The
Ravens’ first two home games were against Kansas City and Cleveland, two
teams that have yet to win a game in eight tries. Baltimore’s weakness is its
cornerbacks are not nearly as good as in previous seasons. Carson Palmer
can attack them. He has a big weapon with Chad Ochocinco.The Ravens
haven’t allowed a running back to gain 100 yards against them in an NFLhigh
39 straight games. Cedric Benson probably won’t end that streak, but
he’s emerged as a credible back that the Ravens can’t ignore in order to
blitz all out against Palmer.The Bengals have showed their heart, desire and
improvement upsetting Green Bay as a similarly-priced road ‘dog and then
coming from behind to edge Pittsburgh. Cincinnati did struggle with the
Browns last week, but it was an obvious flat spot in between Pittsburgh
and this huge matchup. CINCINNATI 23-21.
Dallas over *Kansas City by 17
This isn’t so much a play on Dallas as it is a strong fade on the Chiefs, losers
of 14 of their last 15 at Arrowhead Stadium. This includes dropping
their last eight home contests. The Cowboys have too much team speed
and athleticism for a slow Kansas City offense that has lost faith already.
Todd Haley is another of these first-year head coaches in over his head.
He’s already impaired the confidence level of quarterback Matt Cassel.
Dwayne Bowe, the team’s only legitimate receiving threat, is slowed by a
hamstring injury and has lost his edge, too, because of Haley’s head games.
The Chiefs have nowhere to turn because Larry Johnson isn’t doing the job
on the ground, averaging less than three yards per carry. He’s only scored
two touchdowns in his last 12 games. It’s not like the Chiefs have a dominant
defense that can pick up the slack. Tony Romo should find Kansas
City’s porous secondary to his liking. Look for Romo to play better being
away from the pressure of being in the spotlight in Dallas’ new billion dollar
stadium. Dallas won’t have Felix Jones. However, Marion Barber and
underrated Tashard Choice are good running backs and Jason Witten is one
of the best tight ends in the NFL. DALLAS 30-13.
Winning Points-College
****BEST BET
IOWA* over MICHIGAN by 27
It is amazing how a couple of plays can change the perceptions of a team and a season.
But while there is a general level of optimism in the second season for Rich
Rodriguez in Ann Arbor, the shrewd observer will see something entirely different.
The Wolverines trailed Notre Dame and Indiana by a combined 145 yards of total
offense in those two tense home wins, needing to rally from fourth quarter deficits
each time. And if not for hitting a 60-yard TD pass with a little over four minutes
remaining at East Lansing on Saturday, they could have lost in double figures in a
game in which they were dominated at the line of scrimmage (they were outrushed
197-28). How different does the season look if a couple of those big plays
are not made? The bottom line is that they are still lacking in fundamentals on
both sides of the ball, with the offense a work in progress because of those young
QB’s, and the defense not any better under Greg Robinson than LY’s mediocre
unit. Now they have to leave the state of Michigan for the first time, and will face
an opponent that will tax all of those issues. That hard-hitting Iowa LB corps rates
among the nation’s best, and will keep the Wolverine spread attack form having
any seams to work with, while a Hawkeye offense geared around ball control can
methodically move the chains throughout both on the ground and through the air.
And by playing with their usual fundamental soundness, they frustrate an opponent
that lacks a similar polish. IOWA 37-10.
***BEST BET
FRESNO STATE over HAWAII* by 25
Having already made two long trips to the mainland to disrupt practice cycles, a
real issue for such a young roster, the last thing that Greg McMackin needed was
to have QB Greg Alexander go down for the season. Now a team lacking in defense
and a ground game has lost the one strength that they did have, and they are in the
wrong matchup at the wrong time here against a fresh and angry Bulldog team that
is going to bring plenty of bite. Although it has only been a 1-3 opening for Fresno
State, Pat Hill’s squad more than held their own against Wisconsin, Boise State and
Cincinnati, including a ground game that plowed through those defenses for 790
rushing yards at 5.9 per clip. Now they get to step way down in class against a
Warrior defense that was buried at the point of attack at Louisiana Tech, allowing
352 yards, mostly through the tackles. That is right where State wants to attack
with Ryan Matthews, Robbie Rouse and Lonyae Miller, who have all rambled for
over 100 yards and at least 6.2 per carry so far, remarkable numbers against the
schedule that they have faced. And off of a bye week that will include far too many
viewings of LY’s ugly 32-29 home loss to Hawaii in overtime, when a +180 in total
offense was negated by -5 in turnovers, they will be of the right mindset to not let
up at any time in this one. That mismatch in the trenches, and the depth at RB to
take advantage, wears out a young and depth-shy Hawaii DL, and the Bulldogs
will also have plenty of fans in red making this trip. FRESNO STATE 45-20.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Connecticut over Pittsburgh* by 3
Only some late mistakes vs. North Carolina have prevented Randy Edsell’s Huskies
from opening 4-0 this season, with the defense playing outstanding against both
the run and the pass, the ground game going over 200 yards three times, and Cody
Endres looking like he may be the answer at QB. That is more than enough for us
to take the points being offered here in a game that Edsell and his team may want
more than any other this season, having to deal with that bitter memory of LY’s
ugly 34-10 home loss to these Panthers. Did that score tell us anything about a talent
gap? Not at all – the Huskies held Pittsburgh to 228 yards, but five turnovers
were translated to the scoreboard, including an interception return for a TD. Now
UConn gets two full weeks to prepare for the grudge match, and having won 34-
14 as +8.5 here two years ago there is plenty of confidence when they take this
field, while we get extra value from Pittsburgh’s scoreboard rout of Louisville that
was not nearly as impressive on the field. CONNECTICUT 22-19.
Northwestern* over Miami O. by 10
It has only taken a few seasons, but the Northwestern team on the field has become
a reflection of Pat Fitzgerald, with the Wildcats a scrappy bunch that plays will a
lot of heart and determination when out-manned. As such they are a perfect 4-0
as Big 10 road underdogs the past two seasons, winning every game outright, and
the last 3+ seasons there have been six such outright wins. But there is also another
pattern developing, with Northwestern just 2-5 ATS laying double figures under
Fitzgerald, and that makes sense also – while they have the tenacity to gut out those
upsets, which then increases their power ratings, the raw talent just is not there to
get anything easily. This time around the ground game is the culprit, averaging just
96.5 yards per game vs. lined opponents, and that makes it tough to ever build
much of a margin here, especially with that look-ahead to a conference revenge
game with Michigan State next. RedHawk offense shows enough life with Zac
Dysert at QB to make this work. NORTHWESTERN 30-20.
Wake Forest* over Maryland by 1
Even in a down season a guy like Ralph Freidgen is never going to stop working,
and last week’s upset of Clemson is a tribute to keeping the proper focus. Having
allowed only 274 yards, with one of the Tiger TD’s coming on a kickoff return,
there is also an indication that the defense is getting comfortable in the new
schemes of DC Don Brown. That makes this pointspread category tough to pass
up in a game in which the favorite does not bring the kind of physical edges usually
associated with the range (it was 28-0 Maryland at home last year), and it is
part of the problem of rating Jim Grobe’s program properly. He is a master at finding
ways to win close games, and finding the tricks to keep his Deacons in the
game when out-manned, which leads to elevated power ratings, but a 4-17 ATS
tally laying -7 or more tells us about the limited athleticism that he has to work
with. Hence, in this category, those ratings are misleading. They are good enough
to win again here, but barely. WAKE FOREST 24-23.
Oklahoma State over Texas A&M* by 18
We got what we expected from these Aggies at the top of this page last week, a
young team that was absolutely not ready for prime time, yet got put into the
wrong pointspread category because of those routs vs. lightweights. Unfortunately
that loss to Arkansas was so decisive that the oddsmakers see that adjustments need
to be made, but they will leave this door wide open for us. It will be a crisis of confidence
for Mike Sherman’s team, with so many true freshmen already in key roles,
and the last thing that they need is to face not only a superior opponent, but one
that is hungry and fresh. Having only coasted past Grambling two weeks ago, and
then having last week off, the Cowboys will be in a mood to play their A game,
and with so much talent in the skill positions that exemplary balance can overwhelm
this defense, much as they did in last year’s 56-28 rout in Stillwater. Mike
Gundy’s squad has gone 6-2 ATS on the Big 12 road the past two seasons, and will
be well prepared for this trip. OKLAHOMA STATE 40-22.
****BEST BET
IOWA* over MICHIGAN by 27
It is amazing how a couple of plays can change the perceptions of a team and a season.
But while there is a general level of optimism in the second season for Rich
Rodriguez in Ann Arbor, the shrewd observer will see something entirely different.
The Wolverines trailed Notre Dame and Indiana by a combined 145 yards of total
offense in those two tense home wins, needing to rally from fourth quarter deficits
each time. And if not for hitting a 60-yard TD pass with a little over four minutes
remaining at East Lansing on Saturday, they could have lost in double figures in a
game in which they were dominated at the line of scrimmage (they were outrushed
197-28). How different does the season look if a couple of those big plays
are not made? The bottom line is that they are still lacking in fundamentals on
both sides of the ball, with the offense a work in progress because of those young
QB’s, and the defense not any better under Greg Robinson than LY’s mediocre
unit. Now they have to leave the state of Michigan for the first time, and will face
an opponent that will tax all of those issues. That hard-hitting Iowa LB corps rates
among the nation’s best, and will keep the Wolverine spread attack form having
any seams to work with, while a Hawkeye offense geared around ball control can
methodically move the chains throughout both on the ground and through the air.
And by playing with their usual fundamental soundness, they frustrate an opponent
that lacks a similar polish. IOWA 37-10.
***BEST BET
FRESNO STATE over HAWAII* by 25
Having already made two long trips to the mainland to disrupt practice cycles, a
real issue for such a young roster, the last thing that Greg McMackin needed was
to have QB Greg Alexander go down for the season. Now a team lacking in defense
and a ground game has lost the one strength that they did have, and they are in the
wrong matchup at the wrong time here against a fresh and angry Bulldog team that
is going to bring plenty of bite. Although it has only been a 1-3 opening for Fresno
State, Pat Hill’s squad more than held their own against Wisconsin, Boise State and
Cincinnati, including a ground game that plowed through those defenses for 790
rushing yards at 5.9 per clip. Now they get to step way down in class against a
Warrior defense that was buried at the point of attack at Louisiana Tech, allowing
352 yards, mostly through the tackles. That is right where State wants to attack
with Ryan Matthews, Robbie Rouse and Lonyae Miller, who have all rambled for
over 100 yards and at least 6.2 per carry so far, remarkable numbers against the
schedule that they have faced. And off of a bye week that will include far too many
viewings of LY’s ugly 32-29 home loss to Hawaii in overtime, when a +180 in total
offense was negated by -5 in turnovers, they will be of the right mindset to not let
up at any time in this one. That mismatch in the trenches, and the depth at RB to
take advantage, wears out a young and depth-shy Hawaii DL, and the Bulldogs
will also have plenty of fans in red making this trip. FRESNO STATE 45-20.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Connecticut over Pittsburgh* by 3
Only some late mistakes vs. North Carolina have prevented Randy Edsell’s Huskies
from opening 4-0 this season, with the defense playing outstanding against both
the run and the pass, the ground game going over 200 yards three times, and Cody
Endres looking like he may be the answer at QB. That is more than enough for us
to take the points being offered here in a game that Edsell and his team may want
more than any other this season, having to deal with that bitter memory of LY’s
ugly 34-10 home loss to these Panthers. Did that score tell us anything about a talent
gap? Not at all – the Huskies held Pittsburgh to 228 yards, but five turnovers
were translated to the scoreboard, including an interception return for a TD. Now
UConn gets two full weeks to prepare for the grudge match, and having won 34-
14 as +8.5 here two years ago there is plenty of confidence when they take this
field, while we get extra value from Pittsburgh’s scoreboard rout of Louisville that
was not nearly as impressive on the field. CONNECTICUT 22-19.
Northwestern* over Miami O. by 10
It has only taken a few seasons, but the Northwestern team on the field has become
a reflection of Pat Fitzgerald, with the Wildcats a scrappy bunch that plays will a
lot of heart and determination when out-manned. As such they are a perfect 4-0
as Big 10 road underdogs the past two seasons, winning every game outright, and
the last 3+ seasons there have been six such outright wins. But there is also another
pattern developing, with Northwestern just 2-5 ATS laying double figures under
Fitzgerald, and that makes sense also – while they have the tenacity to gut out those
upsets, which then increases their power ratings, the raw talent just is not there to
get anything easily. This time around the ground game is the culprit, averaging just
96.5 yards per game vs. lined opponents, and that makes it tough to ever build
much of a margin here, especially with that look-ahead to a conference revenge
game with Michigan State next. RedHawk offense shows enough life with Zac
Dysert at QB to make this work. NORTHWESTERN 30-20.
Wake Forest* over Maryland by 1
Even in a down season a guy like Ralph Freidgen is never going to stop working,
and last week’s upset of Clemson is a tribute to keeping the proper focus. Having
allowed only 274 yards, with one of the Tiger TD’s coming on a kickoff return,
there is also an indication that the defense is getting comfortable in the new
schemes of DC Don Brown. That makes this pointspread category tough to pass
up in a game in which the favorite does not bring the kind of physical edges usually
associated with the range (it was 28-0 Maryland at home last year), and it is
part of the problem of rating Jim Grobe’s program properly. He is a master at finding
ways to win close games, and finding the tricks to keep his Deacons in the
game when out-manned, which leads to elevated power ratings, but a 4-17 ATS
tally laying -7 or more tells us about the limited athleticism that he has to work
with. Hence, in this category, those ratings are misleading. They are good enough
to win again here, but barely. WAKE FOREST 24-23.
Oklahoma State over Texas A&M* by 18
We got what we expected from these Aggies at the top of this page last week, a
young team that was absolutely not ready for prime time, yet got put into the
wrong pointspread category because of those routs vs. lightweights. Unfortunately
that loss to Arkansas was so decisive that the oddsmakers see that adjustments need
to be made, but they will leave this door wide open for us. It will be a crisis of confidence
for Mike Sherman’s team, with so many true freshmen already in key roles,
and the last thing that they need is to face not only a superior opponent, but one
that is hungry and fresh. Having only coasted past Grambling two weeks ago, and
then having last week off, the Cowboys will be in a mood to play their A game,
and with so much talent in the skill positions that exemplary balance can overwhelm
this defense, much as they did in last year’s 56-28 rout in Stillwater. Mike
Gundy’s squad has gone 6-2 ATS on the Big 12 road the past two seasons, and will
be well prepared for this trip. OKLAHOMA STATE 40-22.
Sports Memo-Best Bets
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: SMU +7
East Carolina SMU +7
SMU 21 at East Carolina (-5) 38 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Don’t hesitate to bet this one as there has been plenty of early movement toward
the juicy home underdog as the +7 gets taken out. Under June Jones, SMU is on the
right track. They are not yet able to compete every week against all comers but the
program is on the rise. Last week they trailed just 12-7 at the half against a very strong
TCU team. While the Mustangs were held to just to 224 total yards -- well below their
season average of 432 -- they trailed by just nine points headed into the fourth quarter.
This week they face another good team, but one against which they can compete.
East Carolina has averaged just 21 points and less than 300 yards of total offense per
game. They have been outgained by an average of 69 yards per game. They are not
especially strong defensively and SMU should be able to move the football. So while
SMU has dropped two in a row we note that they allowed just 239 total yards in the
overtime loss at Washington State and showed capable by forcing three turnovers in
the first half at TCU. This ball hawking unit has 12 interceptions and should have more
than enough on the defensive side of the ball to slow East Carolina. Take the home dog.
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Stanford is suddenly the “it” team in the PAC-10 after beating UCLA and Washington over
the past two weeks to improve to 3-0 in conference play. The Cardinal are now tied atop
the standings and are 4-1 overall. They are definitely feeling good about themselves and
are getting some attention as a result of their good start. However, they may be getting
a little too much respect, as they are now favored on the road at a tough venue against
a decent team. Stanford’s wins are not that impressive in reality, beating a UCLA team
without its starting quarterback, Washington after it had knocked off USC the previous
week, a bad San Jose State team and an even worse Washington State squad to open
the season. Their lone loss was on the road at Wake Forest, in which they were held to
120 yards rushing. Oregon State has already lost twice at home, yet they have failed
more than twice at home only once this decade, going 44-14 SU since 2000. The Beavers
are coming off a road win at Arizona State and will have some confidence as the Cardinal
come to town. Oregon State has defended the run well thus far, giving up just 3.52
ypc, and that should be the key factor in what expects to be a home underdog victory.
TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Oklahoma State NLOklahoma State NL Texas A&M
Texas A&M 28 at Oklahoma State (-26) 56 - 2008 O/U NL 9:30 am PT
My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket playing against Texas A&M in their 47-19 blowout
loss to Arkansas last week and there’s no reason to hop off the anti-Aggies train
this week. Second year head coach Mike Sherman is using his own recruits these days,
with 16 true freshmen (including five starters) and 31 first time players seeing action
already through the first four games. The young offensive line is undersized and inexperienced,
leaving QB Jarrod Johnson running for his life against better defenses.
And the Aggies own defensive shortcomings that cannot be overemphasized. Last
year, the Aggies allowed a whopping 37 ppg and 462 ypg. This year we saw Utah State
hang 30 points and 521 yards and Arkansas moved the football at will both on the
ground and through the air. The “12th man” factor at Kyle Field hasn’t been an issue
in recent seasons including a 1-3 SU and ATS mark in Big XII play last year. Oklahoma
State beat A&M 56-28 in ’08, and a similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor,
with or without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter in the lineup. It’s not like the Cowboys
lack quality depth at receiver and running back. Oklahoma State rolls in this one.
DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7.5Cincinnati +7.5 Baltimore
Baltimore (-7) 34 at Cincinnati 3 - 2008 O/U 42 10 am PT
Color me skeptical about this Baltimore Ravens team. The national media and pundits
have Baltimore regarded as one of the elite teams in the NFL. And in fairness, if not for
a dropped pass on a fourth down conversion against New England, this team would be
4-0. However it must be noted that their wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland
and San Diego. Those three teams all rank in the bottom nine in scoring defense and
have allowed nearly 28 points per game. In our opinion, Baltimore is good but overrated.
This week they face a division rival brimming with confidence and an identical
3-1 record. While not as flashy, the Bengals’ bend-but-don’t-break defense has allowed
just 19 points per game. A scoring average that is actually better than Baltimore’s. On offense
Joe Flacco has proved himself to be a tremendous talent and can match or exceed
Carson Palmer’s numbers across the board. However that advantage at quarterback is
negligible and with the Bengals better at the skill positions, there is simply not much
difference in the overall talent between these two teams. So while home field advantage
is legitimate, the big points make up the difference and put us on the big divisional dog.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Iowa -7.5Michigan Iowa -7.5
Iowa 6 at Michigan (-12.5) 20 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT (ABC)
The Wolverines will try to pick themselves off the mat as they travel to Iowa to challenge
the Hawkeyes. Michigan met their match in their first road game losing to rival
Michigan State in overtime. The Spartans largely dominated the Wolverines and
easily exploited their weaknesses. It was clear that if you can stop the run against
Michigan you can go a long way in beating them. Unfortunately for the Wolverines,
Iowa is traditionally solid at stopping the run game. While Michigan has a talented
freshman quarterback in Tate Forcier it’s clear he’s not mature enough to
carry this team to victory in a place such as Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes were
once almost impossible to beat on their home turf. This year’s team has the look of
dominance with head coach Kirk Ferentz’s best team in years. They’ll feature a quarterback
edge with junior Ricky Stanzi as he’s taken a real step forward from last season.
This Hawkeyes team is all of the sudden getting healthier on offense as well,
with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Tony Moeaki and Bryan Bulaga returning to full
strength. This defense can simply shut down Michigan and we will lay the points.
Handicapper Best Bets
Vol. 14, Issue 10
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Florida State -2.5Georgia Tech Florida State -2.5
Florida State (+3) 28 at Georgia Tech 31 - 2008 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Last week in these pages we used Wake Forest over NC State in a preferred situation
of one team coming off a loss on the road and returning home to face a
team off a big home win. We’ll go back to the well again this week and utilize
Florida State over visiting Georgia Tech. Since getting crushed at Miami, Tech
has looked dominant with wins over North Carolina and last week on the road
at Mississippi State. The Seminoles have fallen flat since their big win at BYU,
dropping contests to South Florida and on the road to Boston College. In my
opinion in-depth statistical analysis is irrelevant given the ebb and flow nature
of the ACC this season. Both teams are certainly capable of beating one
and other on any given day so like last week, we’ll utilize the favorable situation
for the home side. We also get to add in a little revenge angle with Tech
winning by three last year in Atlanta. I love breaking down rushing advantages,
offensive line play, key injuries, etc. but this is a play that requires nothing
but a peak at the results and schedule. Seminoles find a way to get it done.
Vol. 14, Issue 10
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Oregon State secured a rare win in the desert last week at Arizona State and return home
as underdog to the upstart and much improved Stanford Cardinal, who are on top of
the PAC-10 standings at 3-0. Stanford is off to their best start since 2001, and Cardinal
coach Jim Harbaugh played in the NFL for Oregon State coach Mike Riley while at San
Diego. Stanford beat OSU last season 36-28 as the Beavers fumbled the ball over the goal
line and through the end zone in the final seconds. Stanford running back Toby Gerhart
leads the nation in rushing with 650 yards. The senior star is a workhorse and combines
a bruising physique and impressive acceleration. They’ll rely on him heavily, yet the Beavers
strength is run defense while their pass rush and secondary have been very sub-par.
Oregon State counters with ultra quick and fast RB Jacquizz Rodgers and his 100+ rushing
ypg average and passing game that torched Stanford for 400 yards in last season’s
matchup. Oregon State would have been over a touchdown favorite at home on opening
day, and we’ll take the value and strength of the Beavers on the turf at Reser Stadium.
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Illinois +4Michigan State Illinois +4
Illinois (+25) 23 at Michigan State 20 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT (Big Ten)
We finished off a 9-3 week in college football with Michigan State as our 20* Big Ten
Game of the Year winner. The Spartans dominated Michigan, holding them to 105 total
yards until the final five minutes when Michigan miraculously forced overtime. That
emotional overtime rivalry win by the Spartans triggers a number of letdown situations
and some very strong technical parameters that point to potential issues this weekend.
Illinois will be on nobody’s “buy list” following another lackluster effort after falling behind
Penn State 28-3 in the fourth quarter before losing 35-17. Quarterback Juice Williams
continues to disappoint with just one TD pass and four INTs and Ron Zook finally
made the move to Eddie McGee on Monday. Incredibly, Illinois is last in the conference
in scoring and ypg offense along with total defense. However, Michigan State continues
to turn the ball over and make mistakes that allow their opponents extra opportunities
to make plays. Homecoming should put some extra fight in the Illini and our situational
and technical analysis is just too strong to pass up. Take the home underdog Illinois.
HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Miami (OH) +20.5Miami (OH) +20.5 Northwestern
Northwestern (-5.5) 21 at Miami 3 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT
The RedHawks are currently 0-5 on the season but the team has shown improvement
on offense with redshirt freshman Zac Dysert taking over quarterback. In
Dysert’s first start against Kent State he threw for 337 yards and ran for 107 more.
Then in his second start against a highly ranked Cincinnati defense, he threw for 291
yards and rushed for 45 yards. While the RedHawk defense did give up 439 yards to
Cincinnati, they held them under their seasonal average which is a good sign. The
Wildcats have played a fairly weak schedule and have shown no ability at all to beat
these teams by any kind of margin. With an injury to starting running back Stephen
Simmons the running game has been sub par the last three games with totals of
just 52, 61 and 87 yards. As a result the Wildcats have been a little one dimensional
on offense, averaging more than 45 pass attempts per game. The Red Hawks have
played some very tough teams and have been competitive in both conference
games. With the emergence of Dysert, they should be able to keep this one closer
than projected against a Wildcat defense that has been a little shaky this season.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Ole Miss +6.5Alabama Ole Miss +6.5
Ole Miss (+12.5) 20 at Alabama 24 - 2008 O/U NL 12:30 pm PT (CBS)
This should be one hell of a game! Two teams ranked in the top five just a
couple of weeks ago battling out for top spot in the SEC West...it simply
doesn’t get any better. I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog and call
for that emotional boost to bring them to a higher level than the favorite.
Alabama’s defense is the best in the country, ranking second in total yardage
allowed and 14 ppg. But Ole Miss should be considered a top defensive
unit as well. The Rebels ranked first against the rush in conference play last
year and look strong again this season holding opponents to just 3.2 ypc.
We should also give a little slack to the Rebels who have opened with a challenging
slate of three of their first four on the highway. This will be a raucous
crowd on Saturday and we’ve seen the Oxford faithful power the home side
before. In fact, as a home dog the last three seasons, Ole Miss is a solid 6-2
against the number. With a quarterback in Jevan Snead that has proven his
worth as an underdog (5-0 ATS) we’ll get the money again. Take Ole Miss.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Vanderbilt -11.5Vanderbilt -11.5 Army
None O/U NL 9 am PT
The season is going straight downhill for the Cadets who have failed to improve
offensively after five games. In fact, Army seemed to be entrenched in lousy offensive
play the last three weeks after averaging just 267.7 ypg and 16.7 ppg against
a trio of defenses that hold national ranks of 65th or worse. Two of the three are
not even in the top 100 and the porous Tulane defense, which entered last week
allowing 470.7 ypg, held Army to 222. That’s bad news for first-year coach Rich
Ellerson’s bunch with the nation’s 25th-best defense coming to town Saturday.
Vandy should have no problem shutting Army’s one dimensional attack as their
fast and hard hitting defense has already seen three SEC opponents. For the Commodores
a win here is crucial to their bowl hopes so look for a fully focused effort.
Against comparable competition a few weeks ago, Vanderbilt torched Rice
for 484 yards en-route to a spread covering 37-13 victory. They’ll steamroll the
hapless Army bunch, who once behind, have no means to mount a comeback.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Atlanta +3Atlanta +3 San Francisco
San Francisco 16 at Atlanta (-3.5) 20 - 2007 O/U 40.5 1 pm PT
Vastly different scenario coming out of the bye week this time around for the Falcons,
who figure to be very focused this Sunday. Last season, rookie quarterback
Matt Ryan and first year coach Mike Smith were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises as
they hit the open date off of back-to-back upset victories and a 4-2 record. The accolades
they were receiving and the unexpected instant success clearly indicated
they’d come out of the bye week flat and their trip to Philadelphia that week resulted
in a 27-14 loss as nine-point underdogs. The situation is reversed here as Atlanta
was denied upper echelon league status by New England who dominated two
weeks ago. The Falcons had the bye week to refocus and realize that they still have
some improving to do before they can handle road games versus the league’s elite.
Expect the diverse Falcons to be well prepared for this game at San Francisco where
the 49ers are now earning the same type of bulls eye on their chest. Strong situational
spot here for the Falcons, who also own the fundamental edges in this game.
SPORTSMEMO NEWSLETTER BEST BETS
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: SMU +7
East Carolina SMU +7
SMU 21 at East Carolina (-5) 38 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Don’t hesitate to bet this one as there has been plenty of early movement toward
the juicy home underdog as the +7 gets taken out. Under June Jones, SMU is on the
right track. They are not yet able to compete every week against all comers but the
program is on the rise. Last week they trailed just 12-7 at the half against a very strong
TCU team. While the Mustangs were held to just to 224 total yards -- well below their
season average of 432 -- they trailed by just nine points headed into the fourth quarter.
This week they face another good team, but one against which they can compete.
East Carolina has averaged just 21 points and less than 300 yards of total offense per
game. They have been outgained by an average of 69 yards per game. They are not
especially strong defensively and SMU should be able to move the football. So while
SMU has dropped two in a row we note that they allowed just 239 total yards in the
overtime loss at Washington State and showed capable by forcing three turnovers in
the first half at TCU. This ball hawking unit has 12 interceptions and should have more
than enough on the defensive side of the ball to slow East Carolina. Take the home dog.
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Stanford is suddenly the “it” team in the PAC-10 after beating UCLA and Washington over
the past two weeks to improve to 3-0 in conference play. The Cardinal are now tied atop
the standings and are 4-1 overall. They are definitely feeling good about themselves and
are getting some attention as a result of their good start. However, they may be getting
a little too much respect, as they are now favored on the road at a tough venue against
a decent team. Stanford’s wins are not that impressive in reality, beating a UCLA team
without its starting quarterback, Washington after it had knocked off USC the previous
week, a bad San Jose State team and an even worse Washington State squad to open
the season. Their lone loss was on the road at Wake Forest, in which they were held to
120 yards rushing. Oregon State has already lost twice at home, yet they have failed
more than twice at home only once this decade, going 44-14 SU since 2000. The Beavers
are coming off a road win at Arizona State and will have some confidence as the Cardinal
come to town. Oregon State has defended the run well thus far, giving up just 3.52
ypc, and that should be the key factor in what expects to be a home underdog victory.
TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Oklahoma State NLOklahoma State NL Texas A&M
Texas A&M 28 at Oklahoma State (-26) 56 - 2008 O/U NL 9:30 am PT
My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket playing against Texas A&M in their 47-19 blowout
loss to Arkansas last week and there’s no reason to hop off the anti-Aggies train
this week. Second year head coach Mike Sherman is using his own recruits these days,
with 16 true freshmen (including five starters) and 31 first time players seeing action
already through the first four games. The young offensive line is undersized and inexperienced,
leaving QB Jarrod Johnson running for his life against better defenses.
And the Aggies own defensive shortcomings that cannot be overemphasized. Last
year, the Aggies allowed a whopping 37 ppg and 462 ypg. This year we saw Utah State
hang 30 points and 521 yards and Arkansas moved the football at will both on the
ground and through the air. The “12th man” factor at Kyle Field hasn’t been an issue
in recent seasons including a 1-3 SU and ATS mark in Big XII play last year. Oklahoma
State beat A&M 56-28 in ’08, and a similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor,
with or without Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter in the lineup. It’s not like the Cowboys
lack quality depth at receiver and running back. Oklahoma State rolls in this one.
DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7.5Cincinnati +7.5 Baltimore
Baltimore (-7) 34 at Cincinnati 3 - 2008 O/U 42 10 am PT
Color me skeptical about this Baltimore Ravens team. The national media and pundits
have Baltimore regarded as one of the elite teams in the NFL. And in fairness, if not for
a dropped pass on a fourth down conversion against New England, this team would be
4-0. However it must be noted that their wins have come against Kansas City, Cleveland
and San Diego. Those three teams all rank in the bottom nine in scoring defense and
have allowed nearly 28 points per game. In our opinion, Baltimore is good but overrated.
This week they face a division rival brimming with confidence and an identical
3-1 record. While not as flashy, the Bengals’ bend-but-don’t-break defense has allowed
just 19 points per game. A scoring average that is actually better than Baltimore’s. On offense
Joe Flacco has proved himself to be a tremendous talent and can match or exceed
Carson Palmer’s numbers across the board. However that advantage at quarterback is
negligible and with the Bengals better at the skill positions, there is simply not much
difference in the overall talent between these two teams. So while home field advantage
is legitimate, the big points make up the difference and put us on the big divisional dog.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Iowa -7.5Michigan Iowa -7.5
Iowa 6 at Michigan (-12.5) 20 - 2006 O/U NL 5 pm PT (ABC)
The Wolverines will try to pick themselves off the mat as they travel to Iowa to challenge
the Hawkeyes. Michigan met their match in their first road game losing to rival
Michigan State in overtime. The Spartans largely dominated the Wolverines and
easily exploited their weaknesses. It was clear that if you can stop the run against
Michigan you can go a long way in beating them. Unfortunately for the Wolverines,
Iowa is traditionally solid at stopping the run game. While Michigan has a talented
freshman quarterback in Tate Forcier it’s clear he’s not mature enough to
carry this team to victory in a place such as Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes were
once almost impossible to beat on their home turf. This year’s team has the look of
dominance with head coach Kirk Ferentz’s best team in years. They’ll feature a quarterback
edge with junior Ricky Stanzi as he’s taken a real step forward from last season.
This Hawkeyes team is all of the sudden getting healthier on offense as well,
with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Tony Moeaki and Bryan Bulaga returning to full
strength. This defense can simply shut down Michigan and we will lay the points.
Handicapper Best Bets
Vol. 14, Issue 10
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Florida State -2.5Georgia Tech Florida State -2.5
Florida State (+3) 28 at Georgia Tech 31 - 2008 O/U NL 5 pm PT
Last week in these pages we used Wake Forest over NC State in a preferred situation
of one team coming off a loss on the road and returning home to face a
team off a big home win. We’ll go back to the well again this week and utilize
Florida State over visiting Georgia Tech. Since getting crushed at Miami, Tech
has looked dominant with wins over North Carolina and last week on the road
at Mississippi State. The Seminoles have fallen flat since their big win at BYU,
dropping contests to South Florida and on the road to Boston College. In my
opinion in-depth statistical analysis is irrelevant given the ebb and flow nature
of the ACC this season. Both teams are certainly capable of beating one
and other on any given day so like last week, we’ll utilize the favorable situation
for the home side. We also get to add in a little revenge angle with Tech
winning by three last year in Atlanta. I love breaking down rushing advantages,
offensive line play, key injuries, etc. but this is a play that requires nothing
but a peak at the results and schedule. Seminoles find a way to get it done.
Vol. 14, Issue 10
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Oregon State +2Stanford Oregon State +2
Oregon State 28 at Stanford (+2.5) 36 - 2008 O/U NL 4 pm PT
Oregon State secured a rare win in the desert last week at Arizona State and return home
as underdog to the upstart and much improved Stanford Cardinal, who are on top of
the PAC-10 standings at 3-0. Stanford is off to their best start since 2001, and Cardinal
coach Jim Harbaugh played in the NFL for Oregon State coach Mike Riley while at San
Diego. Stanford beat OSU last season 36-28 as the Beavers fumbled the ball over the goal
line and through the end zone in the final seconds. Stanford running back Toby Gerhart
leads the nation in rushing with 650 yards. The senior star is a workhorse and combines
a bruising physique and impressive acceleration. They’ll rely on him heavily, yet the Beavers
strength is run defense while their pass rush and secondary have been very sub-par.
Oregon State counters with ultra quick and fast RB Jacquizz Rodgers and his 100+ rushing
ypg average and passing game that torched Stanford for 400 yards in last season’s
matchup. Oregon State would have been over a touchdown favorite at home on opening
day, and we’ll take the value and strength of the Beavers on the turf at Reser Stadium.
FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Illinois +4Michigan State Illinois +4
Illinois (+25) 23 at Michigan State 20 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT (Big Ten)
We finished off a 9-3 week in college football with Michigan State as our 20* Big Ten
Game of the Year winner. The Spartans dominated Michigan, holding them to 105 total
yards until the final five minutes when Michigan miraculously forced overtime. That
emotional overtime rivalry win by the Spartans triggers a number of letdown situations
and some very strong technical parameters that point to potential issues this weekend.
Illinois will be on nobody’s “buy list” following another lackluster effort after falling behind
Penn State 28-3 in the fourth quarter before losing 35-17. Quarterback Juice Williams
continues to disappoint with just one TD pass and four INTs and Ron Zook finally
made the move to Eddie McGee on Monday. Incredibly, Illinois is last in the conference
in scoring and ypg offense along with total defense. However, Michigan State continues
to turn the ball over and make mistakes that allow their opponents extra opportunities
to make plays. Homecoming should put some extra fight in the Illini and our situational
and technical analysis is just too strong to pass up. Take the home underdog Illinois.
HELMUT SPORTS
Best Bet: Miami (OH) +20.5Miami (OH) +20.5 Northwestern
Northwestern (-5.5) 21 at Miami 3 - 2006 O/U NL 9 am PT
The RedHawks are currently 0-5 on the season but the team has shown improvement
on offense with redshirt freshman Zac Dysert taking over quarterback. In
Dysert’s first start against Kent State he threw for 337 yards and ran for 107 more.
Then in his second start against a highly ranked Cincinnati defense, he threw for 291
yards and rushed for 45 yards. While the RedHawk defense did give up 439 yards to
Cincinnati, they held them under their seasonal average which is a good sign. The
Wildcats have played a fairly weak schedule and have shown no ability at all to beat
these teams by any kind of margin. With an injury to starting running back Stephen
Simmons the running game has been sub par the last three games with totals of
just 52, 61 and 87 yards. As a result the Wildcats have been a little one dimensional
on offense, averaging more than 45 pass attempts per game. The Red Hawks have
played some very tough teams and have been competitive in both conference
games. With the emergence of Dysert, they should be able to keep this one closer
than projected against a Wildcat defense that has been a little shaky this season.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Ole Miss +6.5Alabama Ole Miss +6.5
Ole Miss (+12.5) 20 at Alabama 24 - 2008 O/U NL 12:30 pm PT (CBS)
This should be one hell of a game! Two teams ranked in the top five just a
couple of weeks ago battling out for top spot in the SEC West...it simply
doesn’t get any better. I’ll gladly take the points with the home dog and call
for that emotional boost to bring them to a higher level than the favorite.
Alabama’s defense is the best in the country, ranking second in total yardage
allowed and 14 ppg. But Ole Miss should be considered a top defensive
unit as well. The Rebels ranked first against the rush in conference play last
year and look strong again this season holding opponents to just 3.2 ypc.
We should also give a little slack to the Rebels who have opened with a challenging
slate of three of their first four on the highway. This will be a raucous
crowd on Saturday and we’ve seen the Oxford faithful power the home side
before. In fact, as a home dog the last three seasons, Ole Miss is a solid 6-2
against the number. With a quarterback in Jevan Snead that has proven his
worth as an underdog (5-0 ATS) we’ll get the money again. Take Ole Miss.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Vanderbilt -11.5Vanderbilt -11.5 Army
None O/U NL 9 am PT
The season is going straight downhill for the Cadets who have failed to improve
offensively after five games. In fact, Army seemed to be entrenched in lousy offensive
play the last three weeks after averaging just 267.7 ypg and 16.7 ppg against
a trio of defenses that hold national ranks of 65th or worse. Two of the three are
not even in the top 100 and the porous Tulane defense, which entered last week
allowing 470.7 ypg, held Army to 222. That’s bad news for first-year coach Rich
Ellerson’s bunch with the nation’s 25th-best defense coming to town Saturday.
Vandy should have no problem shutting Army’s one dimensional attack as their
fast and hard hitting defense has already seen three SEC opponents. For the Commodores
a win here is crucial to their bowl hopes so look for a fully focused effort.
Against comparable competition a few weeks ago, Vanderbilt torched Rice
for 484 yards en-route to a spread covering 37-13 victory. They’ll steamroll the
hapless Army bunch, who once behind, have no means to mount a comeback.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Atlanta +3Atlanta +3 San Francisco
San Francisco 16 at Atlanta (-3.5) 20 - 2007 O/U 40.5 1 pm PT
Vastly different scenario coming out of the bye week this time around for the Falcons,
who figure to be very focused this Sunday. Last season, rookie quarterback
Matt Ryan and first year coach Mike Smith were one of the NFL’s biggest surprises as
they hit the open date off of back-to-back upset victories and a 4-2 record. The accolades
they were receiving and the unexpected instant success clearly indicated
they’d come out of the bye week flat and their trip to Philadelphia that week resulted
in a 27-14 loss as nine-point underdogs. The situation is reversed here as Atlanta
was denied upper echelon league status by New England who dominated two
weeks ago. The Falcons had the bye week to refocus and realize that they still have
some improving to do before they can handle road games versus the league’s elite.
Expect the diverse Falcons to be well prepared for this game at San Francisco where
the 49ers are now earning the same type of bulls eye on their chest. Strong situational
spot here for the Falcons, who also own the fundamental edges in this game.
SPORTSMEMO NEWSLETTER BEST BETS
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
MINNESOTA over *ST. LOUIS by 12
The Vikings are coming off a hugely hyped match-up on Monday Night against the Packers
and have the high-flying Ravens waiting next week, plus a road trip to Pittsburgh and Brett
Favre’s first visit to Lambeau Field in enemy clothing in the weeks following. It’s a lot to
digest, but also a lot at stake for the Vikes, which actually makes this game against the Rams
more likely to be considered a must-have rather than a trap game. After all, with three difficult
games on the board before their bye week in week nine, it behooves the Purple Ones to
notch as many wins as possible, especially with the NFC North looking more and more competitive
by the week. Although often times we advocate taking the underdog in these type of
situation – and that won’t change in the parity-stricken NFL – these St. Louis Rams are part
of a brotherhood of horrible 2009 teams that don’t inspire even the smallest confidence in
the bettor. After all, it’s one thing to be a home underdog, but it’s another thing still to have
been outscored by the opposition 108-24, all losses, of course. Steve Spagnuolo might have
good reason for getting all emotional about Steven Jackson stepping up and displaying leadership
in the locker room, and it’s probably because Jackson’s been the only one. MINNESOTA,
24-12.
RECOMMENDED
*KANSAS CITY over DALLAS by 2
Struggling teams normally do not rediscover themselves on the road. Favorites that fall
behind – as the Cowboys have in their last three games -- are not to be trusted. There
might be an inclination to think, “well, the Cowboys’ NFC East foe New York went into
Kansas City and won rather easily last week, Dallas should do the same.” But the Giants
were unbeaten going in, their coaches are better, they eat quarterbacks for lunch, and
their own quarterback hasn’t been laying waste to the offense for a long time. Dallas ain’t
unbeaten, doesn’t get the same kind of scary pressure on opposing passers, and their
quarterback is becoming a careless, overrated bet-killer. The Chiefs’ head coach Todd
Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast game-planned against Dallas last
season and beat them, when they were offensive and defensive coordinator on Arizona.
They have different personnel here with the Chiefs, but if the Cowboys cannot get the
same kind of scoreboard separation against Chiefs that the Giants established early due
to a Chiefs bumble and superior speed at wideout, then the desperate, winless home
underdog can hang in there and peck away. Kansas City also might be able to pull a special
teams play out of their arsenal, which is how Arizona beat the fat-cat Cowboys last
year. Haley was the Cowboys’ passing game coordinator from 2004-06, his last season
there being Tony Romo’s first as the Cowboys’ starting QB. KANSAS CITY, 21-19.
*CAROLINA over WASHINGTON by 6
There’s just not much to like about Washington – an aging and injured running back struggling
to break off runs, a decimated offensive line giving the shaky quarterback next to no
help, and an overmatched head coach openly feuding on the sidelines with his assistant
coaches about… when to call a time-out? Carolina, while sitting on a similarly middling
record, at least has the semblance of team unity on their side. Despite a large portion of the
blame for their mediocrity landing at the feet of quarterback Jake Delhomme, the offensive
unit has gone out of their way to express support for their beleaguered leader. What’s most
important in this week’s match-up has been Washington big off-season acquisition, Albert
Haynesworth, and his minimal impact on the defense so far. Carolina still has the tools to run
the ball, as long as Delhomme doesn’t single-handedly sabotage the offensive flow on those
occasions he is allowed to throw, and the Panthers should be able to mount a credible run
game on home grass, especially with head coach John Fox doing whatever he can to reduce
the pressure on a mentally burdened Delhomme. CAROLINA, 20-14.
*PHILADELPHIA over TAMPA BAY by 19
Both sides are coming off a bye week. Based on the talent they have, it’s hard to figure who
the extra time benefits, if anyone. The Eagles play this patty-cake and then the crumbling
Raiders next Saturday before tackling three straight NFC East foes. Although they aren’t looking
ahead just yet, they could use this game to experiment, knowing they have a margin for
error against an opponent whose three possible quarterbacks are all new to a new system
in the coaching staff’s first year. Two of Tampa Bay’s options behind center are very inexperienced,
and one of them is Byron Leftwich. Yuck, yuck, and ugh. The Bucs have also been
playing some of the worst defense in the NFL, and the Eagles have demonstrated plenty of
offensive flash, maybe not as consistently as some people would expect it, but they’ve been
moving the ball despite offensive line issues and the injury to Donovan McNabb. McNabb was
always a lock to throw the ball right to Bucs’ DB Ronde Barber when the Bucs played exdefensive
coordinator Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 defense, ruining the Eagles’ chances early. But
now it’s the Bucs who have more potential to do damage to themselves in several areas.
Implosion warning! PHILADELPHIA, 36-17.
*NY GIANTS over OAKLAND by 14
Ex-NFL quarterbacks who have spent time in Oakland are publicly breaking down Raiders’
QB Jamarcus Russell as not being mentally or physically fit to contribute to Oakland success
right now, add more red flags to fly around Oakland as a point-spread investment. The window
of opportunity on the Raiders might have shut one week earlier than we expected (nightmare
in Houston last Sunday). Now they’ve gotta fly home, fly back across the country, and
find a way for this quarterback to help them win a game against the NFL’s deepest and best
pass rush. Opposing quarterbacks have a 49.2 QB Rating against the Giants so far. Russell
had a 38.2 QB Rating last week. Can Oakland show up using two or three tight ends, “max
protect,” and use a power running game to move chains, shorten the game and maybe play
some inspired defense against a Giants’ offense that has had red-zone issues and might
have a hobbled Eli Manning behind center, if not #2 QB David Carr? Perhaps. But the bozo
owner would have to approve it first, and he doesn’t like to play that way. And Russell, their
running backs and return men would have to hold onto the football, but they haven’t been
taught how. NY GIANTS, 27-13.
*BUFFALO over CLEVELAND by 8
After three weeks, Eric Mangini went ahead and publicly apologized to the fan base, promising
progress if given more time to institute his changes and his program. That has to be
some kind of record, right? Apologizing three weeks into your first season? A week four loss
has the Browns boasting the AFC’s ugliest record and the future doesn’t bode well. At this
point, Cleveland is the early frontrunner for the #1 pick in next year’s draft – and they are
exactly the kind of the team the Buffalo Bills feast on for their annual six-to-eight wins. Not
3
NFL FOOTBALL
only are the Bills playing at home, the Browns feature the kind of defense that will allow the
Buffalo offense to finally find some room. The Cleveland’s secondary is extremely weak and
back-up safety Mike Adams has been filling in as the nickel cornerback despite not having
any experience at that position. While Derek Anderson’s insertion into the starting line-up
produced points, he failed to do any damage with Braylon Edwards – which has to be a
source of great frustration to the offensive coaching staff. Look for Buffalo to resemble a
good football team vs. such a mediocre foe and win and cover at home. BUFFALO 24-16.
*BALTIMORE over CINCINNATI by 6
Big game, bigger than normal. The winner of this battle between 3-1 SU AFC North rivals gets
sole possession of first place and would improve to 2-0 in the division. If it’s the Ravens, they
might be doing it without left tackle Jared Gaither, injured vs. the Patriots last Sunday. The
Bengals have double-revenge after losing an opening day game 17-10 (with only 154 offensive
yards and Carson Palmer quarterbacking), anda November 30 game 34-3 (with only 155
offensive yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacking). Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was just a rookie
in both games. This season, he has more of a playbook available to use, and the Ravens’
offensive yardage has increased dramatically from the hum-drum 250-like yard games they
won with last season. So far, Baltimore’s offensive yardage has been 501, 311, 479, 363. The
Bengals, who gained the fewest yards in the NFL last season, are still a sub-300 yards per
game offense this season. Their defense is good, but is it good enough to withstand
Baltimore’s relentless ground game and Flacco’s big arm, as well as what Baltimore’s
defense might do to Palmer? BALTIMORE, 23-17.
PITTSBURGH over *DETROIT by 14
There aren’t many NFL defenses that show less resistance than the Chargers unit that the
Steelers knifed through on Sunday night, but Detroit’s alleged “stop unit” might be one of
them. Combine the Lions’ habitually lousy defense with an injury to QB Matt Stafford that
might force Daunte (Are You Ready to Fumble?!) Culpepper behind center for the Lions, and
you have the recipe for a failed investment with Detroit, barring some unforeseen weirdness
working against the Steelers. Chicago running back Matt Forte was having a lot of trouble
kicking it into gear this season, until the Lions showed up in Soldier Field last Sunday and he
rushed for 121 yards. The Steelers were having problems in the running game until the
Chargers showed up last week. Having rediscovered the power despite the absence of #1
running back Willie Parker in that game, they figure to keep the running attack, and the hardto-
stop offensive balance, going. Even if super safety Polamalu doesn’t return, the Steelers
can’t help but get at least two turnovers from the Lions’ offense. PITTSBURGH, 31-17.
ATLANTA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 3
After years of tantalizing as a sleeper pick, the 49ers have delivered early in the season,
going 4-0 ATS and rising to the top of their division. They’ve faced a cupcake schedule to be
sure, but such is life in the NFC West – everyone runs into an easy stretch at some point. It
gets a little more difficult with a visit from the Falcons, who are experiencing a sophomore
slump after a brief taste of success last year. While the defense has played small, as expected,
the offense hasn’t gotten untracked. Atlanta’s coaching staff is happy to have any wins
at all, but also have the benefit of the bye week to plan for this game. Make no mistake, San
Francisco is hurt by missing Frank Gore. Shaun Hill may boast a pretty record as a starter,
but the majority of those victories have come with Gore under center. Glen Coffee should be
able to find more breathing room against a Falcons defense that is injured and soft, but will
a conservative offense be able to keep up with an Atlanta aerial attack that will find some
real success? Bet against it, and bet on the 49ers running into a stumbling block when face
to face with their limitations. ATLANTA, 20-17.
NEW ENGLAND over *DENVER by 5
The Broncos, with a revamped coaching staff and many new free agents, are 4-0 SU and ATS
after compiling the absolute worst three-season point-spread record to close Mike
Shanahan’s head coaching tenure. Interesting. Maybe Mike Shanahan really did become the
NFL’s worst head coach over the years? For sure, the Broncos had a group of very undisciplined
personnel in Shanahan’s final seasons, which helped contribute to the habitual underperformance.
The housecleaning has helped create a lemony-fresh scent, the smell of success.
Head coach Josh McDaniels spent the eight seasons before this in the New England
locker room and sidelines, the last three as offensive coordinator. But there are only so many
hours in a week, he didn’t bring any New England assistants with him, and the Broncos obviously
put a lot into their first four games. McDaniels might be a mole who has worked closely
with Tom Brady and others in New England successes, but with Wes Welker back in the
fold for the Patriots, Brady has been re-united with an important piece of the Patriots offensive
arsenal -- the reliable possession receiver. Denver has revenge for an embarrassing, 41-
7 Monday Night Football defeat last season, when they were – what else? – undisciplined,
turning it over five times. NEW ENGLAND, 27-22.
BEST BET
HOUSTON over *ARIZONA by 7
So, this Texans team can score, that much is evident. And they should be able to continue
scoring against a Cardinals defense that has played much worse than last season.
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt didn’t want defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast back
because he was a holdover and not one of his boys, but he forgot that the only reason
why the Cardinals got to the Super Bowl last season was the ability to force turnovers
through an overactive defensive front that confused opposing offenses into coughing up
the football. Factor in a gimpy Kurt Warner and there are plenty of reasons why Arizona
looks like yet another Super Bowl loser destined for the tank in the following season.
They’ve been pitiful at home, where they were once their best, and look ripe for the picking
against a non-conference opponent as the ex-AFC coaches on the Cardinals get farther
and farther away from their knowledge base of that conference. The Houston
offense is slowly proving itself, week after week, but like Arizona it’s the defense that
hasn’t kept up its end of the bargain – unless you count harassing an overmatched
JaMarcus Russell as some kind of achievement. Look for Houston to generate something
resembling a pass rush against a underwhelming Arizona offensive line, giving the
offense enough breathing room to notch a welcome road victory. HOUSTON, 28-21.
BEST BET
*SEATTLE over JACKSONVILLE by 14
Two strangers line up and run their stuff, one of them coming off a big win against a division
rival (Jax), the other coming off a lopsided loss in a non-conference game (Sea), theoretically
the least important on the Seahawks’ schedule. Theoretically, this would be one
of the least important games on the Jags’ schedule, being non-conference road. Yahoo
Jack Del Rio and staff also seem to have been extra sweet on preparing to tackle their
AFC South foes this season, with two wins and a near-win against those clubs so far, 3-
0 ATS. The Jags are already 0-1 SU and ATS vs. the NFC (Arizona). The best way to think
about Seattle off their non-Hasselbeck losses to Chicago and Indianapolis is the opposite
way of a clown columnist in the Seattle times, who knee-jerked the following last Sunday
night: “This loss [at Indy] shows how far the Seahawks have fallen. Not acceptable.” As
if the team reports to him? Last Sunday, the Jags took advantage of a Tennessee defense
that curiously stacked the box, dared them to run, and left an injury-depleted secondary
vulnerable to being beaten. It was. The Seahawks are gradually getting injured defensive
players back, and the Jags might be without two starting offensive tackles, in a loud stadium
where communication at the line of scrimmage is always very difficult for the visitor.
SEATTLE, 29-15.
RECOMMENDED
INDIANAPOLIS over *TENNESSEE by 13
When is it too early to pull the plug on a season? 0-4 sounds like a pretty safe time to
do so, although it’s not like it’s never happened. Odds are though, it’s not gonna happen
for these Tennessee Titans, who look like a team that’s been punched in the face week
after week and are finding it harder to get up each time. Conversely, the Colts are team
rising up despite their faults, thanks to the best quarterback in football, Peyton Manning.
Now, Indianapolis’ biggest issue is their run defense – it seems like there are so many
teams with similar issues – but the Colts’ small defensive front seven is something that
Chris Johnson should be able to exploit for big gains. But that advantage is more than
negated by Tennessee’s soft secondary, and the huge mismatches Indy has with Reggie
Wayne and Dallas Clark. Manning will be throwing it up and often against a defense that
has been routinely getting torched by lesser teams. Jeff Fisher hasn’t lost a team during
his long tenure with this franchise, but the Titans are tumbling towards the black hole of
unmet expectations with their early season play. INDIANAPOLIS, 27-14.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
NY JETS over *MIAMI by 4
It’s a testament to how quickly things change in the NFL that the Jets are one of the league’s
hottest teams and the Dolphins are doing what they can to salvage the 2009 season. After
all, despite a quick start last season, the Jets sunk into the doldrums along with their elderly
quarterback – the season dissolving into a mess of injured egos and broken playoff dreams
– while the Dolphins were the media darlings, winning the AFC East in a shocker and turning
heads with the Wildcat formation led by the cast-off former Jet SQB. My, how things
change. Keep in mind that Chad Henne will be making his second career NFL start for the
Dolphins, and that Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan made his coaching reputation making the lives
of opposing quarterbacks extremely difficult. A rookie QB against a very good Jets defense?
Bettor be warned – because even though the Jets secondary is dealing with injury issues,
the Dolphins don't have the personnel to exploit this weakness. NY JETS, 17-13.
4
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
*TROY over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 8
MTS offensive coordinator Tony Franklin is the guy who installed Troy’s spread offense
conversion four years ago. However, his best running back Philip Tanner missed last
week’s win at North Texas, where they probably didn’t need him against a pretty soft
defensive front. This match-up is tougher, and they’re now talking about redshirting
Tanner. Troy’s D held Arkansas State’s Reggie Arnold to 32 yards last Saturday. without
Tanner, MTS probably can’t pound them enough to offset what Troy’s back-to-back 500-
yard-games offense can do when it has the ball. TROY, 31-23.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 1
Last season’s 52-17 win by Missouri in Lincoln was the Huskers' most lopsided home
loss in 53 years. Most of the players not majoring in Geometry at Nebraska nevertheless
know how to circle a date on a schedule. The Huskers huff and they puff and they get
ready to blow Missouri’s house down in payback…but since it’s the first real offense
Nebraska’s defense has seen this season, and it’s a long-term, proven productive system,
Missouri’s new home insurance agents prevail. MISSOURI, 28-27.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
*NEVADA over LOUISIANA TECH by 11
La. Tech will be playing catch-up in Reno all night – probably sounds familiar to many.
Nevada should be salivating after watching tape of La. Tech vs. Auburn and Navy, two
teams with dynamic running games that put up 301 and 290 yards on the ground,
respectively. The Bulldogs do not man a come-from-behind offense, so their rush
defense better improve big-time if they want to compete here against mobile QB
Kaepernick and his running backs who finally got rolling last week. NEVADA, 35-24.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
BEST BET
WEST VIRGINIA over *SYRACUSE by 22
Former Duke point guard Paulus, now Syracuse the quarterback, wants to know if
it’s against the rules for the opposing defense to play with five men in the secondary
and disguise their blitzes, like the one where the safety lines up at DE, then stunts
through the middle of the line. Coach K would cry for a foul on that, he thinks. They
both think it’s unfair that a QB who threw five picks the first time an opposing
defense schemed against his offense (see South Florida horror-movie projection
from last week’s issue) should have to face something like this only seven days later.
His counterpart behind center on West Virginia needs to recognize which color uniform
is his friends, and which color his enemies wear, the better to direct his passes
correctly. But of the two, WVU’s trigger-puller is the better candidate to run from
trouble in an undesigned, madcap romp that would be hard for the other defense to
stop. He also has a hard-to-find little running back with a good motor, vs. mostly traditional
RBs offered by Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA, 35-13.
*ILLINOIS over MICHIGAN STATE by 1
Ron Zook says that Illinois’ offensive problems (basically, needing a compass to find the
end zone) are not all the fault of the new coordinator, or quarterback Juice Williams. Yet
this Juice is a concoction that has frequently done nothing but gag anyone who takes a
sip. Michigan State is off the overtime rivalry win against Michigan and certainly due for
the obligatory letdown. The loosely wired Zook crew (0-3 ATS) is always eligible to shortcircuit
and let an opponent off the hook, but at least their defense has a better chance
to stop t he most blah offense it’ll face so far. ILLINOIS, 21-20.
*VIRGINIA TECH over BOSTON COLLEGE by 13
BC’s rush defense was giving up 150 yards on the ground per game prior to last week’s
emotionally charged FSU game. Visitors must come down off of that high, travel to
Blacksburg, and tangle with the Hokies. On offense, BC is about as exciting as a rice
cake and after they fall behind and are forced to throw. The V-Tech secondary will be all
over a QB unit that has barely completed half of its throws. VIRGINIA TECH, 23-10.
RECOMMENDED
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 31
Offensive capabilities seem too one-sided favoring Central Michigan, who lost a
shootout in last year’s regular season finale when the formerly flying Genkys of EMU
used some late-season bye weeks to cobble together a four- and five-wideout scam,
er, plan to save their jobs. EMU’s 80-pass, 56-52 win against CMU would have
accomplished that objective had a win been a condition for remaining under contract.
But it wasn’t. New head coach Ron English is an ex-defensive coordinator reining
it in, preferring to lose 21-6 with a chance to be, say, 14-6 when the fourth quarter
begins. But his best reinsman is out for the season and you can only hold back
the best offense in the MAC with lousy defensive personnel for so long. When Dan
Lefevour and CMU flood through the gates, Eastern Michigan’s offense figures to be
rowing against the current trying to come back. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 44-13.
*NORTH CAROLINA STATE over DUKE by 11
NC State’s front seven will make sure run-starved Duke doesn’t enjoy some sort of
instant, weird success on the ground. Domino effect of bad down-and-distance situations
forces Duke special teams and defense to create some havoc and points. They
might, but Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson has been one of the best in the nation at ball
security. His string of 379 straight passes without an INT ended last week at Wake with
two picks. Does he get angry, re-focus and freak on the Dukies? Or have ACC opponents
adjusted to him? NC STATE, 34-23.
*WAKE FOREST over MARYLAND by 7
Deacs will have trouble with teams that can stop the run on D and sling it on offense.
Maryland’s QB’s cannot throw it and their defense is giving up close to 5 yards per tote.
That’s good news for the Wake faithful. That said, home team has innate ability to keep
games close so this could get interesting late. WAKE FOREST, 28-21.
*VIRGINIA over INDIANA by 1
Motivation will be an issue for an 0-4 UVA team led by an unofficial lame duck coach.
Indiana, on the other hand, is out to prove that they are a mid-tier Big 10 team and they
want a bowl game to seal that deal. Virginia should keep it close by picking on a relatively
weak secondary, but the Hoosiers will wear down the ’Hoos weak defensive front
seven with a better-than-advertised offensive line. VIRGINIA, 27-26.
*MINNESOTA over PURDUE by 8
It’s not easy to commit five turnovers in a span of 17 minutes, but Purdue, after leading
21-3, achieved that dubious feat last Saturday. The defense showed its own lack of guts
by allowing two 20-play scoring drives by Northwestern. If you enjoy supporting passive,
juggling clowns, don’t back Purdue, buy tickets to the circus. Minnesota’s o-line cannot
pass protect when the opponent knows Weber is forced to throw, but they’ll be fine with
a one-score lead and the Gophers’ defense is pretty good at taking the ball away from
juggling clowns. MINNESOTA, 28-20.
*PITTSBURGH over CONNECTICUT by 11
If you can’t beat Pitt’s defense deep, then you’re probably not gonna beat it. The next
game UConn wins against a legitimate defense by going deep vertically will be the first
since Hector was a pup. UConn, now off a bye, departed from their rush-heavy ways in
a 52-10 win against Rhode Island two weeks ago when QB Cody Endres was 23-for-30,
at 9.5 yards per attempt. Put it in perspective: UMass had gotten 329 passing yards
against Rhode Island the prior week, and Fordham got 302 passing yards against Rhode
Island before that. Bingo the Chimp could have hit some pass plays against URI’s
defense. PITTSBURGH, 24-13.
*NORTHWESTERN over MIAMI-OH by 18
Lack of physicality on the offensive line puts Miami-OH in a bind. Northwestern has been
weathering some defensive injuries up front, but as they get healthier, they generate
enough pressure and push to force bad throws by their 12th Man -- Miami-OH’s quarterback
-- for another Northwestern first down, after Northwestern’s peppery offense
has already gotten enough of them on its own. NORTHWESTERN. 34-16.
5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*KANSAS over IOWA STATE by 25
What do you get when you cross a mediocre visitor on its third different coaching staff
and no bowl-season practices in the last four years against a stable home team with a
proven, productive offensive system? If it’s not a rout, then we’re sadly mistaken.
KANSAS, 51-26.
ALABAMA over *MISSISSIPPI by 7
Great battle here between the Rebels’ massive offensive line and Alabama’s ferocious
defensive front seven. Tough to imagine anybody gashing this ’Bama defense with the
run, so Ole Miss QB Snead will have to make a bunch of plays. Scouting report on Snead
says that he gets rattled easily when pressured. Snead threw 3 picks vs. Vandy last week
prompting Commodore coach Johnson to note, “We switched up coverages and he didn’t
seem to adjust much.” Might as well just dump a gallon of blood in shark Saban’s
fish tank. Saban will dial-up pressure time and time again. Don’t be surprised if Snead
doesn’t make it through four quarters. ALABAMA, 27-20.
*TEMPLE over BALL STATE by 17
Ball State needs to establish a running game with overworked tailback MiQuayle Lewis.
Temple has a stout run defense. The teams haven’t met since Temple became an official
member of the MAC, which means that the Ball State coaching staff headed by Stan
“Empty” Parrish must start from scratch on the prep job against eager-beaver Temple
coaches seriously seeking to trump Turner Gill and the Buffalo staff as the “hot young
coaches” poised to make headline-grabbing, vertical career moves. TEMPLE, 24-7.
VANDERBILT over *ARMY by 11
As the season wears on, and more of Army’s offense is seen on tape, the easier it gets
to defend against the Running plays that lack passing-game support. Vandy’s defense
contained Ole Miss’ zippy end-scooting tailback McCluster well enough last week and
should enjoy playing against an offense that can’t get around the edges and rarely gets
anything vertically over the top. Their own offense stinks, but…VANDERBILT, 17-6.
*WYOMING over NEW MEXICO by 10
Both programs undertook coaching and system changes in the off-season. First-year
Wyoming coach Christensen decided to keep the legacy defensive coordinator and system.
Excellent call, ’cause the defense has been good while the offense tries to figure
things out. New Mexico has nothing to fall back on, and to make matters worse, head
coach Locksley is involved in some off-field distractions. WYOMING, 23-13.
*MISSISSIPPI STATE over HOUSTON by 3
Conference…non-conference – makes no different to MSU first-year coach Dan Mullen,
who just wants wins. Should be able to topple Houston’s paper towel defense that gave
up 305 yards rushing to UTEP. Tough for the Cougars to lift themselves off of the deck
after going from dark horse thoroughbred to also-ran in one week. High scoring game
here, with an edge to the SEC athletes. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 34-31.
BEST BET
ARIZONA over *WASHINGTON by 14
’Zona coach Stoops has a new-found affection for the running game after averaging
158 yards rushing per game last year and finally making a bowl game. That will
serve his team well on the road in Seattle. Arizona’s offensive line is huge – averaging
6’5”, 313 pounds. They’ll eat the Husky d-line for lunch, opening holes for a solid
group of backs. Stoops also found a decent passing option in QB Foles, who started
the season as the backup but went 25-of-34 on the road vs. Oregon St. in a 5-point
win. Washington QB Locker must make plays every drive for his offense to move it,
but the ’Cats are quick on defense and will mitigate the “Locker effect”. Last
Saturday night the Huskies were on a charter flight from Indiana to Washington after
a tough overtime loss to Notre Dame, while the Wildcats were kicking back watching
ball from the comforts of their living room. ARIZONA, 35-21.
BOWLING GREEN over *KENT STATE by 8
Kent’s offense jumped up to 400+ yards at Baylor last Saturday, but Baylor wasn’t
scheming up for non-conference personnel they didn’t know. Baylor also stayed on the
ground offensively and did nothing to expose any holes in Kent State’s pass defense. A
senior QB like BG’s Tyler Sheehan can do that. After only eking a few covers in a row,
Kent State can regress to usual form. BOWLING GREEN, 31-23.
*OREGON STATE over STANFORD by 1
OSU can defend the run and that’s what Stanford wants do on offense. Cardinal tailback
Gerhart is a bruiser, so look for OSU to try and get penetration with its front four.
Defensively, the Cardinal do not have great athletes – news to the ears of Beaver burners
Rodgers & Rodgers. Mike Riley is a solid coach and he knows how to get the ball in
the hands of his play-makers. OREGON STATE, 24-23.
*TENNESSEE over GEORGIA by 1
As suggested in last week’s issue before they got out-rushed by 111 yards vs. LSU, some
simple smashmouth football can be effective against the Georgia defense. That’s what
the Vols do best on offense and their defense is solid enough. Georgia’s under-performing
offense needs to figure out ways to score and get a lead, to put Tennessee’s awful
QB Crompton into the position of being forced to move his arm forward, when bad things
tend to happen to Tennessee. TENNESSEE, 21-20.
*TULANE over MARSHALL by 2
One-trick ponies like Marshall’s “Darius Marshall left, right, up the middle” become easier
to corral with every go-round. Tulane RB Antonio Anderson is capable of offsetting
Darius’ output. Containing Marshall the player would put Marshall the offense into downand-
distance situations that the Tulane defensive front will enjoy. That unit can sack
quarterbacks and has been getting healthier as Toledo Bob has been pointing it towards
C-USA season after some of his other kids built up some betting value while getting
hammered in losses to offensive juggernauts Tulsa and BYU. TULANE, 23-21.
*TEXAS TECH over KANSAS STATE by 15
K-State moved to a 4-2-5 in the off-season, but they haven’t really been tested by a
good offense. Enter Texas Tech – a team that averages over 400 yards passing. The
Wildcats have only 4 sacks on the year, so expect the Red Raiders QB to get nice and
comfy in the pocket as he chucks the ball all over the yard. Mike Leach’s starting QB
Potts left before the half last week with an injury, but the plug ’n play model worked just
fine, as the backup threw 3 TDs. TEXAS TECH, 37-23.
RECOMMENDED
*TEXAS over COLORADO by 40
If Colorado was serious when they were playing the decent pass offenses of
Colorado State and Toledo during “exhibition season,” then they’d have no shot here
against Colt McCoy and the Longhorns’ passing game. CU’s two games post-exposure
have been against the Wyoming lack-of-offense trying to play like Missouri – a
system Colorado has often played against -- and the imitation quarterback on West
Virginia, whose o-line is still learning how to pass block. The Texas QB is Colt McCoy,
past and current Heisman candidate. Unless an emergency Boulder budget increase
has been passed for the purpose of importing and making eligible real defensive
backs, this matchup is not favorable for the visitor. The Buffs are still playing sillycutesy
with the planned redshirt of the team’s best quarterback Hansen. He could
give them a fighting chance as a replacement for Sonny Boy Hawkins but
still…TEXAS, 54-14.
*FLORIDA STATE over GEORGIA TECH by 1
’Noles seem to have the attention span of a hummingbird on crack – playing well one
minute and falling apart the next. FSU does have nice defensive speed to combat the
triple option, but so did UNC and Tech rambled over those guys. Best weapon against
such a run-dominated team is to get on top and stay on top. Seminoles QB Ponder will
be motivated to atone for poor play in the two home games this year and his ability to
scramble and extend drives just might be the difference. FLORIDA STATE, 28-27.
*OHIO STATE over WISCONSIN by 12
Wisconsin is saying, “Gotta stop the run. Gotta stop the run.” They’re right, but they won’t
practice what they preach. Badgers’ defensive front is young and they’ll get power footballed
this weekend. They are just okay at defending the run and have yet to play a team
that really runs the ball well. Wisky’s also saying, “Gotta get ahead. Gotta get ahead.” Not
likely against a super-nasty defensive line that can combat the road dog’s power punching
style blow-for-blow. Wisconsin has a more winnable home game vs. unbeaten Iowa
next week, so expect this week’s prep to include the Hawkeyes. OHIO STATE, 27-15.
OKLAHOMA STATE over *TEXAS A&M by 3
Grass basketball game pairing two teams that will get up and down the field on one
another. Cowboys could not wrangle Houston’s dynamic Keenum QB in week #2, and will
have the same trouble with A&M signal caller Johnson who is putting up about 370 yards
of total offense per game. Home team’s transition to the 3-4 defense was finally exposed
by a good offense last week and the trend will continue this week. A&M coach Sherman
knows that he has a good offense and below average D, so he’ll be looking to outscore
Okie State. Last man with the ball might win….man holding the ticket that says “Over”
might as well. OKLAHOMA STATE, 38-35.
ARIZONA STATE over *WASHINGTON STATE by 21
Sun Devils won’t blow you out of your own building, but they can run the ball which sets
up an effective play-action game. Running the football will not be a problem against one
of the NCAA’s worst defenses. The Cougars are at home with a bye week on deck, so the
kids will be swinging for the fences. They’ll hit a few singles, but won’t be able to move
the sticks with enough regularity to pose much of a threat. ARIZONA STATE, 37-16.
OHIO over *AKRON by 10
Addition by subtraction: Remove one (Boo!) Jackson from behind center, replaced by
Theo Scott, and Ohio’s offense becomes more efficient. Subtraction by subtraction:
Remove one senior QB Chris Jacquemain from behind center by virtue of program-booting
suspension, and the Akron offense becomes less efficient. Akron had a bye week to
get ready for this. Maybe if they had two more, they’d find a way. They picked a bad year
to open a new stadium. OHIO, 30-20.
*COLORADO STATE over UTAH by 1
With the loss of stud-running back Asiata to injury, since the Sugar Bowl last year, the
Utes have replaced their starting QB, RB, top 3 WRs, four starting offensive linemen, their
top 2 defensive linemen, and two NFL-caliber cornerbacks. That’s like asking a supermodel
to eat a 12-egg omelet – hard to digest. CSU has struggled defensively against
better offenses – but we wouldn’t classify Utah as “better.” Utes must ask their defensive
front seven to make Rams’ QB Stucker beat them with his inconsistent arm. Lowscoring
battle at altitude – advantage home team. COLORADO STATE, 20-19.
*UCLA over OREGON by 1
Visiting Ducks must run the ball for mini-QB Masoli and the passing game to work. Cal
and Washington State obliged, but it won’t be so easy in L.A. UCLA’s run D will feed the
Ducks a steady diet of run blitz and 8-men in the box. Even in his 3 TD game against
Cal, Masoli’s receivers didn’t do much – all of his touchdowns were to Dickson his tight
end. On offense, Bruin starting QB Prince should be back in action and his offensive line
is playing more and more physical every week. UCLA, 24-23.
*TOLEDO over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
When your Western Michigan pass offense with overrated QB Tim Hiller needs 15 plays
to punch it across the goal line, but your defense can be beaten for six points in five or
six plays, it’s not a good thing. Toledo has the offensive balance and the horses to bust
it open and protect a leaky defense that will allow the visiting Broncos to escape from
the corral for a thrilling chase. TOLEDO, 37-31.
*LOUISVILLE over SOUTHERN MISS by 1
Southern Miss went bird-hunting and missed at Kansas, which looks like it cost them
the UAB game after some key offensive players got injured and the replacements couldn’t
hang onto the ball in Birmingham. Larry Fedora might reload for Cardinal after spraying
buckshot in vain at the Jayhawk. It’s a third straight road game but they lost the first
two so it should be easy to get up for, especially if Fedora can return to hanging his hat
on RB Fletcher and WR Brown. He’ll never catch a BCS conference foe as reeling as
Louisville is right now. LOUISVILLE, 27-26.
*SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY by 8
Likely to be low-scoring and boring, but neither coaching staff cares about looking good,
they just want the win. Coach Brooks will ask his Cats to run it into the line and to play
defense – he doesn’t want his mistake-prone QB getting hung out against South
Carolina’s mistake-forcing defense. Should the Ol’ Ball Coach remain patient with his
offense – running the ball and taking what the defense gives him in the passing game
– he’ll win ’cause he won’t need to score much (see South Carolina’s wins vs. NC State
and Ole Miss). SOUTH CAROLINA, 21-13.
RECOMMENDED
*ARKANSAS over AUBURN by 7
With a road game at Florida up next, Arkansas coach Petrino knows he must get this
SEC victory. The Hawgs did see Auburn offensive coordinator Malzahn last year when
he was at Tulsa, and Arkansas held Malzahn’s offense to 84 yards under their per
game rush average of 268. But – Malzahn’s offense still managed over 500 yards of
total offense, so don’t expect a complete bog down job. Tigers knocked off
Tennessee on the road last week, but had the benefit of going up against a sub-par
QB. Not the same luxury here against the offensive-minded Petrino and his rocketarm
QB Mallet. ARKANSAS, 35-28.
*OKLAHOMA over BAYLOR by 18
A suddenly shaky quarterback situation forces the Baylor defense to dig down deep right
now. What’s wrong with that statement? It’s the Baylor defense, built maybe to make
some stops in non-conference season against popgun offenses, but already with one
failure against the rush when Connecticut came to town with no passing attack, yet won
by two scores with 100-yard rushing games by two different running backs. Good day
to be Oklahoma running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, isn’t it? Baylor has
been toying with a Wildcat package and will no doubt throw the kitchen sink at an
Oklahoma defense that has often flinched in the face of trickeration. OKLAHOMA, 35-17.
NAVY over *RICE by 14
Rice’s defense would have had a better chance to stop Navy’s triple-option about six
years ago, when their offense was running it and they were practicing against it most of
the time. But that’s not the way it is now. Rice sacked Tulsa’ quarterback five times in
the first half last week. But that kid has problems making downfield reads and would
rather pull it down and run. Navy might not throw it more than five times the entire
game, so forget about sacks. When Rice’s defense has to guess which way the ball is
going on the ground so often, breakdowns are bound to happen. NAVY, 34-20.
7
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
RECOMMENDED
TCU over *AIR FORCE by 20
Horned Frogs defense always gives Air Force fits. In the last three years, the Falcons
have averaged just 131 rushing yards per contest against TCU. Not too bad…until
you consider that the fly boys averaged better than 270 yards on the ground per
game against everybody else during that span. This year’s TCU D isn’t much different
– incredibly fast and able to gain penetration. Going to the air isn’t really an
option for Air Force, as they run it on 87% of their snaps. Offensively, the visitors’
offensive line has a big-time size advantage that they’ll use to control the ball and
keep their defense well rested. TCU, 30-10.
EAST CAROLINA over *SMU by 11
You live dangerously going with the unbalanced and relatively immature pass offense of
SMU vs. a defense as solid and active as East Carolina’s. You need to be able to push
these guys around and wear ‘em down a little, keep ‘em off balance and unable to jump
pass routes. EAST CAROLINA, 31-20.
FLORIDA over *LSU by 5
Sounds like Gator QB and leader Tebow will play after suffering a concussion on
September 26. Florida will need his leadership in Baton Rouge to get the win, but it will
be the defense that gets the game ball. LSU QB Jefferson has been okay this season –
but he doesn’t stretch the field. UF can stuff the run, while matching up with the athletic
Tiger receivers. For the home team to knock off the nation’s #1, they need to win the
turnover battle and keep the Florida special teams from doing damage. LSU is +7 in
turnover margin this year and their coverage teams have been solid. FLORIDA, 28-23.
BEST BET
MICHIGAN over *IOWA by 5
Any active defense will be a challenge for Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi. There
aren’t enough hours in the week to cure him of the nasty habit of throwing the ball
directly to someone in a different-colored jersey. Note that the 5-0 SU Hawkeyes’,
despite winning all their games in ‘09, are not an offensive scoring machine: 27, 21,
24 in their last three games, and all five games have been against non-offensive juggernauts.
Greg Robinson wasn’t much of a head coach at Syracuse, but as a defensive
coordinator, he figures to get his unit to play well enough against a quarterback
whose completion percentage is less than 60%, with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7.
Robinson’s Syracuse teams also played Iowa in ’06 and ’07, and the Hawkeyes’ playbook
gets revised about as often as the Bible. Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense did not
face Michigan’s new offense last season. Against the Big Ten teams who run pieces
of it, they were 0-2 SU last year vs. Illinois and Northwestern. So, good luck to them
getting ready to face it for the first time and yes, they were preparing for it prior to
eking past Arkansas State’s downhill attack but still…MICHIGAN, 28-23.
BEST BET
UTAH STATE over *NEW MEXICO STATE by 23
Couple of things going for us here siding with the roadie: (1) this is Utah State, far
from the focus of College Game Day, (2) they are 1-3…on the surface what Joe
Public expects, and (3) they are on the road. Truth is that Utah State is far more talented
than their opponent. They were competitive in all of their losses against Utah,
Texas A&M, and BYU. Gary Anderson – the former Utah defensive coordinator –
inherited some nice offensive players and he has coached up the defense pretty well.
Anderson’s offense is directed by the dual-threat Borel who can out-athlete most of
NMSU’s defenders. Borel has a few play-makers and the little guys operate behind a
good offensive line. NMSU is in the middle of a coaching and scheme transition and
won’t get their collective feet under them until 2010 spring ball. UTAH STATE, 37-14.
UTEP over *MEMPHIS by 7
Memphis has resorted to using Will (Ugh) Hudgens at quarterback. Many defensive
backs are waiting to get their hands on his throws if he stays in place of Bass, who
replaced Hall. Like the Beatles sang, one and one and one is three-and-out. It’s not coming
together right now for the Tigers under Tommy West (0-4 ATS). UTEP boss Mike Price
was primed for C-USA season (see Midweek Update Best Bet winner UTEP +16, outright
over Houston) and will bring along a tape of Eric Carmen sad songs for the home team
to play in the sideline boom-box. UTEP, 34-27.
*SAN JOSE STATE over IDAHO by 10
Spartans have lost to three teams that will be in bowl games, so the 1-3 record shouldn’t
be a surprise. They drop back to their conference class and should start faring much
better. Coach Tomey has a solid group, led by a veteran offensive line an emerging running
back in Muldrow. SJSU comes off of a much-needed prep and rest bye to face a
surprising 4-1 Idaho team. For once, the home team won’t be dominated in the trenches
and no matter what has happened to date, the Spartans would be 1-0 in the WAC
standings with a win Saturday. SAN JOSE STATE, 27-17.
BYU over *UNLV by 8
As you’re reading this, Nevada just scored another rushing touchdown on UNLV. Rebels
gave up over 700 yards off offense to the Pack last week and will need to get their legs
and confidence back if they want to knock off a conference big boy. Gonna be tough if
backup QB Claussen is still under center. Kid ain’t bad, but he had zero TD passes last
week against a Nevada secondary that has been ripped like 1980s jeans. UNLV can hang
if Cougar QB Hall continues to throw picks (10 on the season), but BYU is a bit too balanced
offensively and too focused on the Mountain West crown to get punked in Vegas.
BYU, 31-23.
FRESNO STATE over *HAWAII by 7
Warrior QB Alexander entered last week’s game with La. Tech as the nation’s leader in
total offense. He left with major knee ligament damage. Ouch for him and Hawaii. Fresno
might be the best 1-3 team in the land, losing to three unbeatens. Their last game was
September 26, so the trip to the islands won’t be too unsettling. Helps to have a running
game to win on the road and Fresno is averaging 275 ground yards per game.We’d say
that qualifies. FRESNO STATE, 28-21.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over *WESTERN KENTUCKY by 8
Western Kentucky’s offense woke up a little bit in its last outing, coinciding with the start
at QB by freshman Kawun Jakes, who replaced injured senior Brandon Smith, whose
stats made it seem like he was playing injured before he was hurt. If the WJU braintrust
decides to stick with Jakes, they’ll probably have to live with inevitable short-circuiting
mistakes and turnovers that come along with the spark. FIU’s defense is known for blitzing
on every other down, not what the kid needs to be playing against at this stage of
his game. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 27-19.
*LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over NORTH TEXAS by 4
Defensive intensity for both sides begins and ends with squinty eyes and mean stares.
When the ball is snapped, each stop unit prays for the other side to drop the ball. UNT
QB Riley Dodge, primed for the last few years for this particular Sun Belt season, goes
to work in an offense that despite getting more rushing into it for better balance, has
returned to its turnover-laden ways in the last two games (9 of them!). At least he only
QB’d one of them. The Lafalots turned it over 6 times at Nebraska and LSU. LOUISIANALAFAYETTE,
38-34.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13
*LOUISIANA-MONROE over ARKANSAS STATE by 1
Arkansas State is the kind of team that looks fine, but will do something wrong to get
itself beat. One thing for sure, their conference foe Monrovians will take them a lot more
seriously than Iowa did. LOUISIANA-MONROE, 27-26.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14
BOISE STATE over *TULSA by 10
Tulsa will be amped to play Top 5 Boise, but the Broncos have a BCS berth on the line
every week and they play like it. First on Golden Hurricane coach Todd Graham’s list of
“to dos” is to win C-USA. This game does nothing for that goal. Broncos are better in the
trenches and unless they lose the turnover battle by 3+, BSU remains unbeaten. BOISE
STATE, 34-24.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
MINNESOTA over *ST. LOUIS by 12
The Vikings are coming off a hugely hyped match-up on Monday Night against the Packers
and have the high-flying Ravens waiting next week, plus a road trip to Pittsburgh and Brett
Favre’s first visit to Lambeau Field in enemy clothing in the weeks following. It’s a lot to
digest, but also a lot at stake for the Vikes, which actually makes this game against the Rams
more likely to be considered a must-have rather than a trap game. After all, with three difficult
games on the board before their bye week in week nine, it behooves the Purple Ones to
notch as many wins as possible, especially with the NFC North looking more and more competitive
by the week. Although often times we advocate taking the underdog in these type of
situation – and that won’t change in the parity-stricken NFL – these St. Louis Rams are part
of a brotherhood of horrible 2009 teams that don’t inspire even the smallest confidence in
the bettor. After all, it’s one thing to be a home underdog, but it’s another thing still to have
been outscored by the opposition 108-24, all losses, of course. Steve Spagnuolo might have
good reason for getting all emotional about Steven Jackson stepping up and displaying leadership
in the locker room, and it’s probably because Jackson’s been the only one. MINNESOTA,
24-12.
RECOMMENDED
*KANSAS CITY over DALLAS by 2
Struggling teams normally do not rediscover themselves on the road. Favorites that fall
behind – as the Cowboys have in their last three games -- are not to be trusted. There
might be an inclination to think, “well, the Cowboys’ NFC East foe New York went into
Kansas City and won rather easily last week, Dallas should do the same.” But the Giants
were unbeaten going in, their coaches are better, they eat quarterbacks for lunch, and
their own quarterback hasn’t been laying waste to the offense for a long time. Dallas ain’t
unbeaten, doesn’t get the same kind of scary pressure on opposing passers, and their
quarterback is becoming a careless, overrated bet-killer. The Chiefs’ head coach Todd
Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast game-planned against Dallas last
season and beat them, when they were offensive and defensive coordinator on Arizona.
They have different personnel here with the Chiefs, but if the Cowboys cannot get the
same kind of scoreboard separation against Chiefs that the Giants established early due
to a Chiefs bumble and superior speed at wideout, then the desperate, winless home
underdog can hang in there and peck away. Kansas City also might be able to pull a special
teams play out of their arsenal, which is how Arizona beat the fat-cat Cowboys last
year. Haley was the Cowboys’ passing game coordinator from 2004-06, his last season
there being Tony Romo’s first as the Cowboys’ starting QB. KANSAS CITY, 21-19.
*CAROLINA over WASHINGTON by 6
There’s just not much to like about Washington – an aging and injured running back struggling
to break off runs, a decimated offensive line giving the shaky quarterback next to no
help, and an overmatched head coach openly feuding on the sidelines with his assistant
coaches about… when to call a time-out? Carolina, while sitting on a similarly middling
record, at least has the semblance of team unity on their side. Despite a large portion of the
blame for their mediocrity landing at the feet of quarterback Jake Delhomme, the offensive
unit has gone out of their way to express support for their beleaguered leader. What’s most
important in this week’s match-up has been Washington big off-season acquisition, Albert
Haynesworth, and his minimal impact on the defense so far. Carolina still has the tools to run
the ball, as long as Delhomme doesn’t single-handedly sabotage the offensive flow on those
occasions he is allowed to throw, and the Panthers should be able to mount a credible run
game on home grass, especially with head coach John Fox doing whatever he can to reduce
the pressure on a mentally burdened Delhomme. CAROLINA, 20-14.
*PHILADELPHIA over TAMPA BAY by 19
Both sides are coming off a bye week. Based on the talent they have, it’s hard to figure who
the extra time benefits, if anyone. The Eagles play this patty-cake and then the crumbling
Raiders next Saturday before tackling three straight NFC East foes. Although they aren’t looking
ahead just yet, they could use this game to experiment, knowing they have a margin for
error against an opponent whose three possible quarterbacks are all new to a new system
in the coaching staff’s first year. Two of Tampa Bay’s options behind center are very inexperienced,
and one of them is Byron Leftwich. Yuck, yuck, and ugh. The Bucs have also been
playing some of the worst defense in the NFL, and the Eagles have demonstrated plenty of
offensive flash, maybe not as consistently as some people would expect it, but they’ve been
moving the ball despite offensive line issues and the injury to Donovan McNabb. McNabb was
always a lock to throw the ball right to Bucs’ DB Ronde Barber when the Bucs played exdefensive
coordinator Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 defense, ruining the Eagles’ chances early. But
now it’s the Bucs who have more potential to do damage to themselves in several areas.
Implosion warning! PHILADELPHIA, 36-17.
*NY GIANTS over OAKLAND by 14
Ex-NFL quarterbacks who have spent time in Oakland are publicly breaking down Raiders’
QB Jamarcus Russell as not being mentally or physically fit to contribute to Oakland success
right now, add more red flags to fly around Oakland as a point-spread investment. The window
of opportunity on the Raiders might have shut one week earlier than we expected (nightmare
in Houston last Sunday). Now they’ve gotta fly home, fly back across the country, and
find a way for this quarterback to help them win a game against the NFL’s deepest and best
pass rush. Opposing quarterbacks have a 49.2 QB Rating against the Giants so far. Russell
had a 38.2 QB Rating last week. Can Oakland show up using two or three tight ends, “max
protect,” and use a power running game to move chains, shorten the game and maybe play
some inspired defense against a Giants’ offense that has had red-zone issues and might
have a hobbled Eli Manning behind center, if not #2 QB David Carr? Perhaps. But the bozo
owner would have to approve it first, and he doesn’t like to play that way. And Russell, their
running backs and return men would have to hold onto the football, but they haven’t been
taught how. NY GIANTS, 27-13.
*BUFFALO over CLEVELAND by 8
After three weeks, Eric Mangini went ahead and publicly apologized to the fan base, promising
progress if given more time to institute his changes and his program. That has to be
some kind of record, right? Apologizing three weeks into your first season? A week four loss
has the Browns boasting the AFC’s ugliest record and the future doesn’t bode well. At this
point, Cleveland is the early frontrunner for the #1 pick in next year’s draft – and they are
exactly the kind of the team the Buffalo Bills feast on for their annual six-to-eight wins. Not
3
NFL FOOTBALL
only are the Bills playing at home, the Browns feature the kind of defense that will allow the
Buffalo offense to finally find some room. The Cleveland’s secondary is extremely weak and
back-up safety Mike Adams has been filling in as the nickel cornerback despite not having
any experience at that position. While Derek Anderson’s insertion into the starting line-up
produced points, he failed to do any damage with Braylon Edwards – which has to be a
source of great frustration to the offensive coaching staff. Look for Buffalo to resemble a
good football team vs. such a mediocre foe and win and cover at home. BUFFALO 24-16.
*BALTIMORE over CINCINNATI by 6
Big game, bigger than normal. The winner of this battle between 3-1 SU AFC North rivals gets
sole possession of first place and would improve to 2-0 in the division. If it’s the Ravens, they
might be doing it without left tackle Jared Gaither, injured vs. the Patriots last Sunday. The
Bengals have double-revenge after losing an opening day game 17-10 (with only 154 offensive
yards and Carson Palmer quarterbacking), anda November 30 game 34-3 (with only 155
offensive yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacking). Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was just a rookie
in both games. This season, he has more of a playbook available to use, and the Ravens’
offensive yardage has increased dramatically from the hum-drum 250-like yard games they
won with last season. So far, Baltimore’s offensive yardage has been 501, 311, 479, 363. The
Bengals, who gained the fewest yards in the NFL last season, are still a sub-300 yards per
game offense this season. Their defense is good, but is it good enough to withstand
Baltimore’s relentless ground game and Flacco’s big arm, as well as what Baltimore’s
defense might do to Palmer? BALTIMORE, 23-17.
PITTSBURGH over *DETROIT by 14
There aren’t many NFL defenses that show less resistance than the Chargers unit that the
Steelers knifed through on Sunday night, but Detroit’s alleged “stop unit” might be one of
them. Combine the Lions’ habitually lousy defense with an injury to QB Matt Stafford that
might force Daunte (Are You Ready to Fumble?!) Culpepper behind center for the Lions, and
you have the recipe for a failed investment with Detroit, barring some unforeseen weirdness
working against the Steelers. Chicago running back Matt Forte was having a lot of trouble
kicking it into gear this season, until the Lions showed up in Soldier Field last Sunday and he
rushed for 121 yards. The Steelers were having problems in the running game until the
Chargers showed up last week. Having rediscovered the power despite the absence of #1
running back Willie Parker in that game, they figure to keep the running attack, and the hardto-
stop offensive balance, going. Even if super safety Polamalu doesn’t return, the Steelers
can’t help but get at least two turnovers from the Lions’ offense. PITTSBURGH, 31-17.
ATLANTA over *SAN FRANCISCO by 3
After years of tantalizing as a sleeper pick, the 49ers have delivered early in the season,
going 4-0 ATS and rising to the top of their division. They’ve faced a cupcake schedule to be
sure, but such is life in the NFC West – everyone runs into an easy stretch at some point. It
gets a little more difficult with a visit from the Falcons, who are experiencing a sophomore
slump after a brief taste of success last year. While the defense has played small, as expected,
the offense hasn’t gotten untracked. Atlanta’s coaching staff is happy to have any wins
at all, but also have the benefit of the bye week to plan for this game. Make no mistake, San
Francisco is hurt by missing Frank Gore. Shaun Hill may boast a pretty record as a starter,
but the majority of those victories have come with Gore under center. Glen Coffee should be
able to find more breathing room against a Falcons defense that is injured and soft, but will
a conservative offense be able to keep up with an Atlanta aerial attack that will find some
real success? Bet against it, and bet on the 49ers running into a stumbling block when face
to face with their limitations. ATLANTA, 20-17.
NEW ENGLAND over *DENVER by 5
The Broncos, with a revamped coaching staff and many new free agents, are 4-0 SU and ATS
after compiling the absolute worst three-season point-spread record to close Mike
Shanahan’s head coaching tenure. Interesting. Maybe Mike Shanahan really did become the
NFL’s worst head coach over the years? For sure, the Broncos had a group of very undisciplined
personnel in Shanahan’s final seasons, which helped contribute to the habitual underperformance.
The housecleaning has helped create a lemony-fresh scent, the smell of success.
Head coach Josh McDaniels spent the eight seasons before this in the New England
locker room and sidelines, the last three as offensive coordinator. But there are only so many
hours in a week, he didn’t bring any New England assistants with him, and the Broncos obviously
put a lot into their first four games. McDaniels might be a mole who has worked closely
with Tom Brady and others in New England successes, but with Wes Welker back in the
fold for the Patriots, Brady has been re-united with an important piece of the Patriots offensive
arsenal -- the reliable possession receiver. Denver has revenge for an embarrassing, 41-
7 Monday Night Football defeat last season, when they were – what else? – undisciplined,
turning it over five times. NEW ENGLAND, 27-22.
BEST BET
HOUSTON over *ARIZONA by 7
So, this Texans team can score, that much is evident. And they should be able to continue
scoring against a Cardinals defense that has played much worse than last season.
Head coach Ken Whisenhunt didn’t want defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast back
because he was a holdover and not one of his boys, but he forgot that the only reason
why the Cardinals got to the Super Bowl last season was the ability to force turnovers
through an overactive defensive front that confused opposing offenses into coughing up
the football. Factor in a gimpy Kurt Warner and there are plenty of reasons why Arizona
looks like yet another Super Bowl loser destined for the tank in the following season.
They’ve been pitiful at home, where they were once their best, and look ripe for the picking
against a non-conference opponent as the ex-AFC coaches on the Cardinals get farther
and farther away from their knowledge base of that conference. The Houston
offense is slowly proving itself, week after week, but like Arizona it’s the defense that
hasn’t kept up its end of the bargain – unless you count harassing an overmatched
JaMarcus Russell as some kind of achievement. Look for Houston to generate something
resembling a pass rush against a underwhelming Arizona offensive line, giving the
offense enough breathing room to notch a welcome road victory. HOUSTON, 28-21.
BEST BET
*SEATTLE over JACKSONVILLE by 14
Two strangers line up and run their stuff, one of them coming off a big win against a division
rival (Jax), the other coming off a lopsided loss in a non-conference game (Sea), theoretically
the least important on the Seahawks’ schedule. Theoretically, this would be one
of the least important games on the Jags’ schedule, being non-conference road. Yahoo
Jack Del Rio and staff also seem to have been extra sweet on preparing to tackle their
AFC South foes this season, with two wins and a near-win against those clubs so far, 3-
0 ATS. The Jags are already 0-1 SU and ATS vs. the NFC (Arizona). The best way to think
about Seattle off their non-Hasselbeck losses to Chicago and Indianapolis is the opposite
way of a clown columnist in the Seattle times, who knee-jerked the following last Sunday
night: “This loss [at Indy] shows how far the Seahawks have fallen. Not acceptable.” As
if the team reports to him? Last Sunday, the Jags took advantage of a Tennessee defense
that curiously stacked the box, dared them to run, and left an injury-depleted secondary
vulnerable to being beaten. It was. The Seahawks are gradually getting injured defensive
players back, and the Jags might be without two starting offensive tackles, in a loud stadium
where communication at the line of scrimmage is always very difficult for the visitor.
SEATTLE, 29-15.
RECOMMENDED
INDIANAPOLIS over *TENNESSEE by 13
When is it too early to pull the plug on a season? 0-4 sounds like a pretty safe time to
do so, although it’s not like it’s never happened. Odds are though, it’s not gonna happen
for these Tennessee Titans, who look like a team that’s been punched in the face week
after week and are finding it harder to get up each time. Conversely, the Colts are team
rising up despite their faults, thanks to the best quarterback in football, Peyton Manning.
Now, Indianapolis’ biggest issue is their run defense – it seems like there are so many
teams with similar issues – but the Colts’ small defensive front seven is something that
Chris Johnson should be able to exploit for big gains. But that advantage is more than
negated by Tennessee’s soft secondary, and the huge mismatches Indy has with Reggie
Wayne and Dallas Clark. Manning will be throwing it up and often against a defense that
has been routinely getting torched by lesser teams. Jeff Fisher hasn’t lost a team during
his long tenure with this franchise, but the Titans are tumbling towards the black hole of
unmet expectations with their early season play. INDIANAPOLIS, 27-14.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 12
NY JETS over *MIAMI by 4
It’s a testament to how quickly things change in the NFL that the Jets are one of the league’s
hottest teams and the Dolphins are doing what they can to salvage the 2009 season. After
all, despite a quick start last season, the Jets sunk into the doldrums along with their elderly
quarterback – the season dissolving into a mess of injured egos and broken playoff dreams
– while the Dolphins were the media darlings, winning the AFC East in a shocker and turning
heads with the Wildcat formation led by the cast-off former Jet SQB. My, how things
change. Keep in mind that Chad Henne will be making his second career NFL start for the
Dolphins, and that Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan made his coaching reputation making the lives
of opposing quarterbacks extremely difficult. A rookie QB against a very good Jets defense?
Bettor be warned – because even though the Jets secondary is dealing with injury issues,
the Dolphins don't have the personnel to exploit this weakness. NY JETS, 17-13.
4
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6
*TROY over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 8
MTS offensive coordinator Tony Franklin is the guy who installed Troy’s spread offense
conversion four years ago. However, his best running back Philip Tanner missed last
week’s win at North Texas, where they probably didn’t need him against a pretty soft
defensive front. This match-up is tougher, and they’re now talking about redshirting
Tanner. Troy’s D held Arkansas State’s Reggie Arnold to 32 yards last Saturday. without
Tanner, MTS probably can’t pound them enough to offset what Troy’s back-to-back 500-
yard-games offense can do when it has the ball. TROY, 31-23.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 1
Last season’s 52-17 win by Missouri in Lincoln was the Huskers' most lopsided home
loss in 53 years. Most of the players not majoring in Geometry at Nebraska nevertheless
know how to circle a date on a schedule. The Huskers huff and they puff and they get
ready to blow Missouri’s house down in payback…but since it’s the first real offense
Nebraska’s defense has seen this season, and it’s a long-term, proven productive system,
Missouri’s new home insurance agents prevail. MISSOURI, 28-27.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9
*NEVADA over LOUISIANA TECH by 11
La. Tech will be playing catch-up in Reno all night – probably sounds familiar to many.
Nevada should be salivating after watching tape of La. Tech vs. Auburn and Navy, two
teams with dynamic running games that put up 301 and 290 yards on the ground,
respectively. The Bulldogs do not man a come-from-behind offense, so their rush
defense better improve big-time if they want to compete here against mobile QB
Kaepernick and his running backs who finally got rolling last week. NEVADA, 35-24.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
BEST BET
WEST VIRGINIA over *SYRACUSE by 22
Former Duke point guard Paulus, now Syracuse the quarterback, wants to know if
it’s against the rules for the opposing defense to play with five men in the secondary
and disguise their blitzes, like the one where the safety lines up at DE, then stunts
through the middle of the line. Coach K would cry for a foul on that, he thinks. They
both think it’s unfair that a QB who threw five picks the first time an opposing
defense schemed against his offense (see South Florida horror-movie projection
from last week’s issue) should have to face something like this only seven days later.
His counterpart behind center on West Virginia needs to recognize which color uniform
is his friends, and which color his enemies wear, the better to direct his passes
correctly. But of the two, WVU’s trigger-puller is the better candidate to run from
trouble in an undesigned, madcap romp that would be hard for the other defense to
stop. He also has a hard-to-find little running back with a good motor, vs. mostly traditional
RBs offered by Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA, 35-13.
*ILLINOIS over MICHIGAN STATE by 1
Ron Zook says that Illinois’ offensive problems (basically, needing a compass to find the
end zone) are not all the fault of the new coordinator, or quarterback Juice Williams. Yet
this Juice is a concoction that has frequently done nothing but gag anyone who takes a
sip. Michigan State is off the overtime rivalry win against Michigan and certainly due for
the obligatory letdown. The loosely wired Zook crew (0-3 ATS) is always eligible to shortcircuit
and let an opponent off the hook, but at least their defense has a better chance
to stop t he most blah offense it’ll face so far. ILLINOIS, 21-20.
*VIRGINIA TECH over BOSTON COLLEGE by 13
BC’s rush defense was giving up 150 yards on the ground per game prior to last week’s
emotionally charged FSU game. Visitors must come down off of that high, travel to
Blacksburg, and tangle with the Hokies. On offense, BC is about as exciting as a rice
cake and after they fall behind and are forced to throw. The V-Tech secondary will be all
over a QB unit that has barely completed half of its throws. VIRGINIA TECH, 23-10.
RECOMMENDED
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN over EASTERN MICHIGAN by 31
Offensive capabilities seem too one-sided favoring Central Michigan, who lost a
shootout in last year’s regular season finale when the formerly flying Genkys of EMU
used some late-season bye weeks to cobble together a four- and five-wideout scam,
er, plan to save their jobs. EMU’s 80-pass, 56-52 win against CMU would have
accomplished that objective had a win been a condition for remaining under contract.
But it wasn’t. New head coach Ron English is an ex-defensive coordinator reining
it in, preferring to lose 21-6 with a chance to be, say, 14-6 when the fourth quarter
begins. But his best reinsman is out for the season and you can only hold back
the best offense in the MAC with lousy defensive personnel for so long. When Dan
Lefevour and CMU flood through the gates, Eastern Michigan’s offense figures to be
rowing against the current trying to come back. CENTRAL MICHIGAN, 44-13.
*NORTH CAROLINA STATE over DUKE by 11
NC State’s front seven will make sure run-starved Duke doesn’t enjoy some sort of
instant, weird success on the ground. Domino effect of bad down-and-distance situations
forces Duke special teams and defense to create some havoc and points. They
might, but Wolfpack QB Russell Wilson has been one of the best in the nation at ball
security. His string of 379 straight passes without an INT ended last week at Wake with
two picks. Does he get angry, re-focus and freak on the Dukies? Or have ACC opponents
adjusted to him? NC STATE, 34-23.
*WAKE FOREST over MARYLAND by 7
Deacs will have trouble with teams that can stop the run on D and sling it on offense.
Maryland’s QB’s cannot throw it and their defense is giving up close to 5 yards per tote.
That’s good news for the Wake faithful. That said, home team has innate ability to keep
games close so this could get interesting late. WAKE FOREST, 28-21.
*VIRGINIA over INDIANA by 1
Motivation will be an issue for an 0-4 UVA team led by an unofficial lame duck coach.
Indiana, on the other hand, is out to prove that they are a mid-tier Big 10 team and they
want a bowl game to seal that deal. Virginia should keep it close by picking on a relatively
weak secondary, but the Hoosiers will wear down the ’Hoos weak defensive front
seven with a better-than-advertised offensive line. VIRGINIA, 27-26.
*MINNESOTA over PURDUE by 8
It’s not easy to commit five turnovers in a span of 17 minutes, but Purdue, after leading
21-3, achieved that dubious feat last Saturday. The defense showed its own lack of guts
by allowing two 20-play scoring drives by Northwestern. If you enjoy supporting passive,
juggling clowns, don’t back Purdue, buy tickets to the circus. Minnesota’s o-line cannot
pass protect when the opponent knows Weber is forced to throw, but they’ll be fine with
a one-score lead and the Gophers’ defense is pretty good at taking the ball away from
juggling clowns. MINNESOTA, 28-20.
*PITTSBURGH over CONNECTICUT by 11
If you can’t beat Pitt’s defense deep, then you’re probably not gonna beat it. The next
game UConn wins against a legitimate defense by going deep vertically will be the first
since Hector was a pup. UConn, now off a bye, departed from their rush-heavy ways in
a 52-10 win against Rhode Island two weeks ago when QB Cody Endres was 23-for-30,
at 9.5 yards per attempt. Put it in perspective: UMass had gotten 329 passing yards
against Rhode Island the prior week, and Fordham got 302 passing yards against Rhode
Island before that. Bingo the Chimp could have hit some pass plays against URI’s
defense. PITTSBURGH, 24-13.
*NORTHWESTERN over MIAMI-OH by 18
Lack of physicality on the offensive line puts Miami-OH in a bind. Northwestern has been
weathering some defensive injuries up front, but as they get healthier, they generate
enough pressure and push to force bad throws by their 12th Man -- Miami-OH’s quarterback
-- for another Northwestern first down, after Northwestern’s peppery offense
has already gotten enough of them on its own. NORTHWESTERN. 34-16.
5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*KANSAS over IOWA STATE by 25
What do you get when you cross a mediocre visitor on its third different coaching staff
and no bowl-season practices in the last four years against a stable home team with a
proven, productive offensive system? If it’s not a rout, then we’re sadly mistaken.
KANSAS, 51-26.
ALABAMA over *MISSISSIPPI by 7
Great battle here between the Rebels’ massive offensive line and Alabama’s ferocious
defensive front seven. Tough to imagine anybody gashing this ’Bama defense with the
run, so Ole Miss QB Snead will have to make a bunch of plays. Scouting report on Snead
says that he gets rattled easily when pressured. Snead threw 3 picks vs. Vandy last week
prompting Commodore coach Johnson to note, “We switched up coverages and he didn’t
seem to adjust much.” Might as well just dump a gallon of blood in shark Saban’s
fish tank. Saban will dial-up pressure time and time again. Don’t be surprised if Snead
doesn’t make it through four quarters. ALABAMA, 27-20.
*TEMPLE over BALL STATE by 17
Ball State needs to establish a running game with overworked tailback MiQuayle Lewis.
Temple has a stout run defense. The teams haven’t met since Temple became an official
member of the MAC, which means that the Ball State coaching staff headed by Stan
“Empty” Parrish must start from scratch on the prep job against eager-beaver Temple
coaches seriously seeking to trump Turner Gill and the Buffalo staff as the “hot young
coaches” poised to make headline-grabbing, vertical career moves. TEMPLE, 24-7.
VANDERBILT over *ARMY by 11
As the season wears on, and more of Army’s offense is seen on tape, the easier it gets
to defend against the Running plays that lack passing-game support. Vandy’s defense
contained Ole Miss’ zippy end-scooting tailback McCluster well enough last week and
should enjoy playing against an offense that can’t get around the edges and rarely gets
anything vertically over the top. Their own offense stinks, but…VANDERBILT, 17-6.
*WYOMING over NEW MEXICO by 10
Both programs undertook coaching and system changes in the off-season. First-year
Wyoming coach Christensen decided to keep the legacy defensive coordinator and system.
Excellent call, ’cause the defense has been good while the offense tries to figure
things out. New Mexico has nothing to fall back on, and to make matters worse, head
coach Locksley is involved in some off-field distractions. WYOMING, 23-13.
*MISSISSIPPI STATE over HOUSTON by 3
Conference…non-conference – makes no different to MSU first-year coach Dan Mullen,
who just wants wins. Should be able to topple Houston’s paper towel defense that gave
up 305 yards rushing to UTEP. Tough for the Cougars to lift themselves off of the deck
after going from dark horse thoroughbred to also-ran in one week. High scoring game
here, with an edge to the SEC athletes. MISSISSIPPI STATE, 34-31.
BEST BET
ARIZONA over *WASHINGTON by 14
’Zona coach Stoops has a new-found affection for the running game after averaging
158 yards rushing per game last year and finally making a bowl game. That will
serve his team well on the road in Seattle. Arizona’s offensive line is huge – averaging
6’5”, 313 pounds. They’ll eat the Husky d-line for lunch, opening holes for a solid
group of backs. Stoops also found a decent passing option in QB Foles, who started
the season as the backup but went 25-of-34 on the road vs. Oregon St. in a 5-point
win. Washington QB Locker must make plays every drive for his offense to move it,
but the ’Cats are quick on defense and will mitigate the “Locker effect”. Last
Saturday night the Huskies were on a charter flight from Indiana to Washington after
a tough overtime loss to Notre Dame, while the Wildcats were kicking back watching
ball from the comforts of their living room. ARIZONA, 35-21.
BOWLING GREEN over *KENT STATE by 8
Kent’s offense jumped up to 400+ yards at Baylor last Saturday, but Baylor wasn’t
scheming up for non-conference personnel they didn’t know. Baylor also stayed on the
ground offensively and did nothing to expose any holes in Kent State’s pass defense. A
senior QB like BG’s Tyler Sheehan can do that. After only eking a few covers in a row,
Kent State can regress to usual form. BOWLING GREEN, 31-23.
*OREGON STATE over STANFORD by 1
OSU can defend the run and that’s what Stanford wants do on offense. Cardinal tailback
Gerhart is a bruiser, so look for OSU to try and get penetration with its front four.
Defensively, the Cardinal do not have great athletes – news to the ears of Beaver burners
Rodgers & Rodgers. Mike Riley is a solid coach and he knows how to get the ball in
the hands of his play-makers. OREGON STATE, 24-23.
*TENNESSEE over GEORGIA by 1
As suggested in last week’s issue before they got out-rushed by 111 yards vs. LSU, some
simple smashmouth football can be effective against the Georgia defense. That’s what
the Vols do best on offense and their defense is solid enough. Georgia’s under-performing
offense needs to figure out ways to score and get a lead, to put Tennessee’s awful
QB Crompton into the position of being forced to move his arm forward, when bad things
tend to happen to Tennessee. TENNESSEE, 21-20.
*TULANE over MARSHALL by 2
One-trick ponies like Marshall’s “Darius Marshall left, right, up the middle” become easier
to corral with every go-round. Tulane RB Antonio Anderson is capable of offsetting
Darius’ output. Containing Marshall the player would put Marshall the offense into downand-
distance situations that the Tulane defensive front will enjoy. That unit can sack
quarterbacks and has been getting healthier as Toledo Bob has been pointing it towards
C-USA season after some of his other kids built up some betting value while getting
hammered in losses to offensive juggernauts Tulsa and BYU. TULANE, 23-21.
*TEXAS TECH over KANSAS STATE by 15
K-State moved to a 4-2-5 in the off-season, but they haven’t really been tested by a
good offense. Enter Texas Tech – a team that averages over 400 yards passing. The
Wildcats have only 4 sacks on the year, so expect the Red Raiders QB to get nice and
comfy in the pocket as he chucks the ball all over the yard. Mike Leach’s starting QB
Potts left before the half last week with an injury, but the plug ’n play model worked just
fine, as the backup threw 3 TDs. TEXAS TECH, 37-23.
RECOMMENDED
*TEXAS over COLORADO by 40
If Colorado was serious when they were playing the decent pass offenses of
Colorado State and Toledo during “exhibition season,” then they’d have no shot here
against Colt McCoy and the Longhorns’ passing game. CU’s two games post-exposure
have been against the Wyoming lack-of-offense trying to play like Missouri – a
system Colorado has often played against -- and the imitation quarterback on West
Virginia, whose o-line is still learning how to pass block. The Texas QB is Colt McCoy,
past and current Heisman candidate. Unless an emergency Boulder budget increase
has been passed for the purpose of importing and making eligible real defensive
backs, this matchup is not favorable for the visitor. The Buffs are still playing sillycutesy
with the planned redshirt of the team’s best quarterback Hansen. He could
give them a fighting chance as a replacement for Sonny Boy Hawkins but
still…TEXAS, 54-14.
*FLORIDA STATE over GEORGIA TECH by 1
’Noles seem to have the attention span of a hummingbird on crack – playing well one
minute and falling apart the next. FSU does have nice defensive speed to combat the
triple option, but so did UNC and Tech rambled over those guys. Best weapon against
such a run-dominated team is to get on top and stay on top. Seminoles QB Ponder will
be motivated to atone for poor play in the two home games this year and his ability to
scramble and extend drives just might be the difference. FLORIDA STATE, 28-27.
*OHIO STATE over WISCONSIN by 12
Wisconsin is saying, “Gotta stop the run. Gotta stop the run.” They’re right, but they won’t
practice what they preach. Badgers’ defensive front is young and they’ll get power footballed
this weekend. They are just okay at defending the run and have yet to play a team
that really runs the ball well. Wisky’s also saying, “Gotta get ahead. Gotta get ahead.” Not
likely against a super-nasty defensive line that can combat the road dog’s power punching
style blow-for-blow. Wisconsin has a more winnable home game vs. unbeaten Iowa
next week, so expect this week’s prep to include the Hawkeyes. OHIO STATE, 27-15.
OKLAHOMA STATE over *TEXAS A&M by 3
Grass basketball game pairing two teams that will get up and down the field on one
another. Cowboys could not wrangle Houston’s dynamic Keenum QB in week #2, and will
have the same trouble with A&M signal caller Johnson who is putting up about 370 yards
of total offense per game. Home team’s transition to the 3-4 defense was finally exposed
by a good offense last week and the trend will continue this week. A&M coach Sherman
knows that he has a good offense and below average D, so he’ll be looking to outscore
Okie State. Last man with the ball might win….man holding the ticket that says “Over”
might as well. OKLAHOMA STATE, 38-35.
ARIZONA STATE over *WASHINGTON STATE by 21
Sun Devils won’t blow you out of your own building, but they can run the ball which sets
up an effective play-action game. Running the football will not be a problem against one
of the NCAA’s worst defenses. The Cougars are at home with a bye week on deck, so the
kids will be swinging for the fences. They’ll hit a few singles, but won’t be able to move
the sticks with enough regularity to pose much of a threat. ARIZONA STATE, 37-16.
OHIO over *AKRON by 10
Addition by subtraction: Remove one (Boo!) Jackson from behind center, replaced by
Theo Scott, and Ohio’s offense becomes more efficient. Subtraction by subtraction:
Remove one senior QB Chris Jacquemain from behind center by virtue of program-booting
suspension, and the Akron offense becomes less efficient. Akron had a bye week to
get ready for this. Maybe if they had two more, they’d find a way. They picked a bad year
to open a new stadium. OHIO, 30-20.
*COLORADO STATE over UTAH by 1
With the loss of stud-running back Asiata to injury, since the Sugar Bowl last year, the
Utes have replaced their starting QB, RB, top 3 WRs, four starting offensive linemen, their
top 2 defensive linemen, and two NFL-caliber cornerbacks. That’s like asking a supermodel
to eat a 12-egg omelet – hard to digest. CSU has struggled defensively against
better offenses – but we wouldn’t classify Utah as “better.” Utes must ask their defensive
front seven to make Rams’ QB Stucker beat them with his inconsistent arm. Lowscoring
battle at altitude – advantage home team. COLORADO STATE, 20-19.
*UCLA over OREGON by 1
Visiting Ducks must run the ball for mini-QB Masoli and the passing game to work. Cal
and Washington State obliged, but it won’t be so easy in L.A. UCLA’s run D will feed the
Ducks a steady diet of run blitz and 8-men in the box. Even in his 3 TD game against
Cal, Masoli’s receivers didn’t do much – all of his touchdowns were to Dickson his tight
end. On offense, Bruin starting QB Prince should be back in action and his offensive line
is playing more and more physical every week. UCLA, 24-23.
*TOLEDO over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
When your Western Michigan pass offense with overrated QB Tim Hiller needs 15 plays
to punch it across the goal line, but your defense can be beaten for six points in five or
six plays, it’s not a good thing. Toledo has the offensive balance and the horses to bust
it open and protect a leaky defense that will allow the visiting Broncos to escape from
the corral for a thrilling chase. TOLEDO, 37-31.
*LOUISVILLE over SOUTHERN MISS by 1
Southern Miss went bird-hunting and missed at Kansas, which looks like it cost them
the UAB game after some key offensive players got injured and the replacements couldn’t
hang onto the ball in Birmingham. Larry Fedora might reload for Cardinal after spraying
buckshot in vain at the Jayhawk. It’s a third straight road game but they lost the first
two so it should be easy to get up for, especially if Fedora can return to hanging his hat
on RB Fletcher and WR Brown. He’ll never catch a BCS conference foe as reeling as
Louisville is right now. LOUISVILLE, 27-26.
*SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY by 8
Likely to be low-scoring and boring, but neither coaching staff cares about looking good,
they just want the win. Coach Brooks will ask his Cats to run it into the line and to play
defense – he doesn’t want his mistake-prone QB getting hung out against South
Carolina’s mistake-forcing defense. Should the Ol’ Ball Coach remain patient with his
offense – running the ball and taking what the defense gives him in the passing game
– he’ll win ’cause he won’t need to score much (see South Carolina’s wins vs. NC State
and Ole Miss). SOUTH CAROLINA, 21-13.
RECOMMENDED
*ARKANSAS over AUBURN by 7
With a road game at Florida up next, Arkansas coach Petrino knows he must get this
SEC victory. The Hawgs did see Auburn offensive coordinator Malzahn last year when
he was at Tulsa, and Arkansas held Malzahn’s offense to 84 yards under their per
game rush average of 268. But – Malzahn’s offense still managed over 500 yards of
total offense, so don’t expect a complete bog down job. Tigers knocked off
Tennessee on the road last week, but had the benefit of going up against a sub-par
QB. Not the same luxury here against the offensive-minded Petrino and his rocketarm
QB Mallet. ARKANSAS, 35-28.
*OKLAHOMA over BAYLOR by 18
A suddenly shaky quarterback situation forces the Baylor defense to dig down deep right
now. What’s wrong with that statement? It’s the Baylor defense, built maybe to make
some stops in non-conference season against popgun offenses, but already with one
failure against the rush when Connecticut came to town with no passing attack, yet won
by two scores with 100-yard rushing games by two different running backs. Good day
to be Oklahoma running backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, isn’t it? Baylor has
been toying with a Wildcat package and will no doubt throw the kitchen sink at an
Oklahoma defense that has often flinched in the face of trickeration. OKLAHOMA, 35-17.
NAVY over *RICE by 14
Rice’s defense would have had a better chance to stop Navy’s triple-option about six
years ago, when their offense was running it and they were practicing against it most of
the time. But that’s not the way it is now. Rice sacked Tulsa’ quarterback five times in
the first half last week. But that kid has problems making downfield reads and would
rather pull it down and run. Navy might not throw it more than five times the entire
game, so forget about sacks. When Rice’s defense has to guess which way the ball is
going on the ground so often, breakdowns are bound to happen. NAVY, 34-20.
7
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
RECOMMENDED
TCU over *AIR FORCE by 20
Horned Frogs defense always gives Air Force fits. In the last three years, the Falcons
have averaged just 131 rushing yards per contest against TCU. Not too bad…until
you consider that the fly boys averaged better than 270 yards on the ground per
game against everybody else during that span. This year’s TCU D isn’t much different
– incredibly fast and able to gain penetration. Going to the air isn’t really an
option for Air Force, as they run it on 87% of their snaps. Offensively, the visitors’
offensive line has a big-time size advantage that they’ll use to control the ball and
keep their defense well rested. TCU, 30-10.
EAST CAROLINA over *SMU by 11
You live dangerously going with the unbalanced and relatively immature pass offense of
SMU vs. a defense as solid and active as East Carolina’s. You need to be able to push
these guys around and wear ‘em down a little, keep ‘em off balance and unable to jump
pass routes. EAST CAROLINA, 31-20.
FLORIDA over *LSU by 5
Sounds like Gator QB and leader Tebow will play after suffering a concussion on
September 26. Florida will need his leadership in Baton Rouge to get the win, but it will
be the defense that gets the game ball. LSU QB Jefferson has been okay this season –
but he doesn’t stretch the field. UF can stuff the run, while matching up with the athletic
Tiger receivers. For the home team to knock off the nation’s #1, they need to win the
turnover battle and keep the Florida special teams from doing damage. LSU is +7 in
turnover margin this year and their coverage teams have been solid. FLORIDA, 28-23.
BEST BET
MICHIGAN over *IOWA by 5
Any active defense will be a challenge for Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi. There
aren’t enough hours in the week to cure him of the nasty habit of throwing the ball
directly to someone in a different-colored jersey. Note that the 5-0 SU Hawkeyes’,
despite winning all their games in ‘09, are not an offensive scoring machine: 27, 21,
24 in their last three games, and all five games have been against non-offensive juggernauts.
Greg Robinson wasn’t much of a head coach at Syracuse, but as a defensive
coordinator, he figures to get his unit to play well enough against a quarterback
whose completion percentage is less than 60%, with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7.
Robinson’s Syracuse teams also played Iowa in ’06 and ’07, and the Hawkeyes’ playbook
gets revised about as often as the Bible. Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense did not
face Michigan’s new offense last season. Against the Big Ten teams who run pieces
of it, they were 0-2 SU last year vs. Illinois and Northwestern. So, good luck to them
getting ready to face it for the first time and yes, they were preparing for it prior to
eking past Arkansas State’s downhill attack but still…MICHIGAN, 28-23.
BEST BET
UTAH STATE over *NEW MEXICO STATE by 23
Couple of things going for us here siding with the roadie: (1) this is Utah State, far
from the focus of College Game Day, (2) they are 1-3…on the surface what Joe
Public expects, and (3) they are on the road. Truth is that Utah State is far more talented
than their opponent. They were competitive in all of their losses against Utah,
Texas A&M, and BYU. Gary Anderson – the former Utah defensive coordinator –
inherited some nice offensive players and he has coached up the defense pretty well.
Anderson’s offense is directed by the dual-threat Borel who can out-athlete most of
NMSU’s defenders. Borel has a few play-makers and the little guys operate behind a
good offensive line. NMSU is in the middle of a coaching and scheme transition and
won’t get their collective feet under them until 2010 spring ball. UTAH STATE, 37-14.
UTEP over *MEMPHIS by 7
Memphis has resorted to using Will (Ugh) Hudgens at quarterback. Many defensive
backs are waiting to get their hands on his throws if he stays in place of Bass, who
replaced Hall. Like the Beatles sang, one and one and one is three-and-out. It’s not coming
together right now for the Tigers under Tommy West (0-4 ATS). UTEP boss Mike Price
was primed for C-USA season (see Midweek Update Best Bet winner UTEP +16, outright
over Houston) and will bring along a tape of Eric Carmen sad songs for the home team
to play in the sideline boom-box. UTEP, 34-27.
*SAN JOSE STATE over IDAHO by 10
Spartans have lost to three teams that will be in bowl games, so the 1-3 record shouldn’t
be a surprise. They drop back to their conference class and should start faring much
better. Coach Tomey has a solid group, led by a veteran offensive line an emerging running
back in Muldrow. SJSU comes off of a much-needed prep and rest bye to face a
surprising 4-1 Idaho team. For once, the home team won’t be dominated in the trenches
and no matter what has happened to date, the Spartans would be 1-0 in the WAC
standings with a win Saturday. SAN JOSE STATE, 27-17.
BYU over *UNLV by 8
As you’re reading this, Nevada just scored another rushing touchdown on UNLV. Rebels
gave up over 700 yards off offense to the Pack last week and will need to get their legs
and confidence back if they want to knock off a conference big boy. Gonna be tough if
backup QB Claussen is still under center. Kid ain’t bad, but he had zero TD passes last
week against a Nevada secondary that has been ripped like 1980s jeans. UNLV can hang
if Cougar QB Hall continues to throw picks (10 on the season), but BYU is a bit too balanced
offensively and too focused on the Mountain West crown to get punked in Vegas.
BYU, 31-23.
FRESNO STATE over *HAWAII by 7
Warrior QB Alexander entered last week’s game with La. Tech as the nation’s leader in
total offense. He left with major knee ligament damage. Ouch for him and Hawaii. Fresno
might be the best 1-3 team in the land, losing to three unbeatens. Their last game was
September 26, so the trip to the islands won’t be too unsettling. Helps to have a running
game to win on the road and Fresno is averaging 275 ground yards per game.We’d say
that qualifies. FRESNO STATE, 28-21.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over *WESTERN KENTUCKY by 8
Western Kentucky’s offense woke up a little bit in its last outing, coinciding with the start
at QB by freshman Kawun Jakes, who replaced injured senior Brandon Smith, whose
stats made it seem like he was playing injured before he was hurt. If the WJU braintrust
decides to stick with Jakes, they’ll probably have to live with inevitable short-circuiting
mistakes and turnovers that come along with the spark. FIU’s defense is known for blitzing
on every other down, not what the kid needs to be playing against at this stage of
his game. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 27-19.
*LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over NORTH TEXAS by 4
Defensive intensity for both sides begins and ends with squinty eyes and mean stares.
When the ball is snapped, each stop unit prays for the other side to drop the ball. UNT
QB Riley Dodge, primed for the last few years for this particular Sun Belt season, goes
to work in an offense that despite getting more rushing into it for better balance, has
returned to its turnover-laden ways in the last two games (9 of them!). At least he only
QB’d one of them. The Lafalots turned it over 6 times at Nebraska and LSU. LOUISIANALAFAYETTE,
38-34.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13
*LOUISIANA-MONROE over ARKANSAS STATE by 1
Arkansas State is the kind of team that looks fine, but will do something wrong to get
itself beat. One thing for sure, their conference foe Monrovians will take them a lot more
seriously than Iowa did. LOUISIANA-MONROE, 27-26.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14
BOISE STATE over *TULSA by 10
Tulsa will be amped to play Top 5 Boise, but the Broncos have a BCS berth on the line
every week and they play like it. First on Golden Hurricane coach Todd Graham’s list of
“to dos” is to win C-USA. This game does nothing for that goal. Broncos are better in the
trenches and unless they lose the turnover battle by 3+, BSU remains unbeaten. BOISE
STATE, 34-24.
Statfox Platinum Sheet-NFL
10/11/09 (401) MINNESOTA at (402) ST LOUIS
If you get the chance to read my NFL feature article on
page 11, you’ll see that there are even times to play teams
as bad as the Rams throughout the season. As it turns out,
games 5-8 for pathetic teams is the ideal range, and when
you combine other favorable factors, the reasons multiply.
Take for instance, this system: Play On—Underdogs of 3.5
to 10 points (ST LOUIS)—pathetic team—outscored by
opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 17
points or fewer in three straight games. (97-55 since 1983.)
(63.8 percent, +36.5 units. Rating = 2*). On top of those
factors, consider the schedule of the Vikings. After coming
off a tough Monday night game versus Green Bay, they
have this one sandwiched by games versus Baltimore,
Pittsburgh, and again, the Packers. It would be very easy
to overlook this game. My bet is they will. Expect the Rams
to put up a more competitive effort here.
Play: St Louis +10
10/11/09 (405) WASHINGTON at (406) CAROLINA
Despite its 2-2 record, Washington is being placed in the
grouping of the NFL’s worst teams. In fact, for this contest,
the Redskins are being considered a rather sizeable underdog
against an 0-3 club that has been downright awful in
its first three games, Carolina. The Panthers are scoring
just 12.3 points per game and are being outscored by 16.7.
Is that the type of team that deserves to be a 3-1/2 point
favorite against a .500 club? I’ll grant the fact that the Redskins
haven’t won a game against the spread yet, and the
fact that they have struggled offensively, but honestly,
they’ve been a favorite of -10, -6, and -9.5 the last three
weeks. Those are lines that Washington never covers.
Here, as the underdog, the ‘Skins are in a much more favorable
position, and I believe the rally last week to beat
the Bucs will propel them to another win. Plus, Washington
has won seven of its last eight games versus the Panthers.
Play: Washington +3.5
10/11/09 (417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO
Categorize this team: 3-1 SU record, 4-0 ATS mark,
outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game, and boasting
one of the best defenses in the NFL. To me, that would
be considered one of the elite teams in the league. Guess
what? It is the 49ers. San Francisco has quietly been one of
the best teams in the NFL this year and quite easily could
be unbeaten right now heading into this home contest
against Atlanta. This isn’t just a four-game fluke though, as
since Mike Singletary took over, they are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1
spreadwise. That is quite an extended stretch of strong
play and its about time people, namely oddsmakers, start
taking the Niners seriously. Here San Francisco will be
looking to extend a five-game home winning streak in
which it has outscored its opponents by 16 points per
game. Atlanta meanwhile, is being outgained by 0.4 yards
per play. The Falcons should be a bigger underdog.
Play: San Francisco -2.5
10/11/09 (419) NEW ENGLAND at (420) DENVER
Having gotten the chance to watch the full games of both
New England and Denver last week, I was impressed with
both, but more so the Broncos. This team is not overrated,
and if there is one thing I’ve learned about the NFL, its that
winning can build some very positive momentum for
teams. How can anyone discount the fact that Denver has
allowed 26 points this year. Not 26 points per game mind
you, 26 TOTAL points, easily the best in the NFL at 6.5
points per game. Now, there will be plenty of trend reasons
to play the Patriots here because of their past and Bill
Belichick over Josh McDaniels, etc, but sometimes, it just
makes sense to take stock of the teams as they stand
NOW, and analyze whether the pointspread set for the
game is right. Here it is not. A 4-0 team outscoring opponents
by 13.2 points per game should not be a home dog.
Play: Denver +3.5
10/11/09 (423) JACKSONVILLE at (424) SEATTLE
Here is an interesting StatFox Super Situation that will
apply for this game: Play On—Any team (SEATTLE)—an
average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average
defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous
game by 14 or more points at the half. (27-6 over the last
five seasons.) (81.8 percent, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*). The
truth is that these are both average teams. Seattle has
been hit by the injury bug. If all goes well, it could have
many of the key pieces back for Sunday, in which case, it
makes this game very difficult for Jacksonville. The Jaguars
will be in an unfamiliar environment, and in a typically unfavorable
line position. The Seahawks outplay factor rating
after four games is +0.3, meaning they are actually an
above-average team, and should be at least a two-point
favorite in this game.
Play: Seattle Pk
10/11/09 (401) MINNESOTA at (402) ST LOUIS
If you get the chance to read my NFL feature article on
page 11, you’ll see that there are even times to play teams
as bad as the Rams throughout the season. As it turns out,
games 5-8 for pathetic teams is the ideal range, and when
you combine other favorable factors, the reasons multiply.
Take for instance, this system: Play On—Underdogs of 3.5
to 10 points (ST LOUIS)—pathetic team—outscored by
opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 17
points or fewer in three straight games. (97-55 since 1983.)
(63.8 percent, +36.5 units. Rating = 2*). On top of those
factors, consider the schedule of the Vikings. After coming
off a tough Monday night game versus Green Bay, they
have this one sandwiched by games versus Baltimore,
Pittsburgh, and again, the Packers. It would be very easy
to overlook this game. My bet is they will. Expect the Rams
to put up a more competitive effort here.
Play: St Louis +10
10/11/09 (405) WASHINGTON at (406) CAROLINA
Despite its 2-2 record, Washington is being placed in the
grouping of the NFL’s worst teams. In fact, for this contest,
the Redskins are being considered a rather sizeable underdog
against an 0-3 club that has been downright awful in
its first three games, Carolina. The Panthers are scoring
just 12.3 points per game and are being outscored by 16.7.
Is that the type of team that deserves to be a 3-1/2 point
favorite against a .500 club? I’ll grant the fact that the Redskins
haven’t won a game against the spread yet, and the
fact that they have struggled offensively, but honestly,
they’ve been a favorite of -10, -6, and -9.5 the last three
weeks. Those are lines that Washington never covers.
Here, as the underdog, the ‘Skins are in a much more favorable
position, and I believe the rally last week to beat
the Bucs will propel them to another win. Plus, Washington
has won seven of its last eight games versus the Panthers.
Play: Washington +3.5
10/11/09 (417) ATLANTA at (418) SAN FRANCISCO
Categorize this team: 3-1 SU record, 4-0 ATS mark,
outscoring opponents by 12.3 points per game, and boasting
one of the best defenses in the NFL. To me, that would
be considered one of the elite teams in the league. Guess
what? It is the 49ers. San Francisco has quietly been one of
the best teams in the NFL this year and quite easily could
be unbeaten right now heading into this home contest
against Atlanta. This isn’t just a four-game fluke though, as
since Mike Singletary took over, they are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1
spreadwise. That is quite an extended stretch of strong
play and its about time people, namely oddsmakers, start
taking the Niners seriously. Here San Francisco will be
looking to extend a five-game home winning streak in
which it has outscored its opponents by 16 points per
game. Atlanta meanwhile, is being outgained by 0.4 yards
per play. The Falcons should be a bigger underdog.
Play: San Francisco -2.5
10/11/09 (419) NEW ENGLAND at (420) DENVER
Having gotten the chance to watch the full games of both
New England and Denver last week, I was impressed with
both, but more so the Broncos. This team is not overrated,
and if there is one thing I’ve learned about the NFL, its that
winning can build some very positive momentum for
teams. How can anyone discount the fact that Denver has
allowed 26 points this year. Not 26 points per game mind
you, 26 TOTAL points, easily the best in the NFL at 6.5
points per game. Now, there will be plenty of trend reasons
to play the Patriots here because of their past and Bill
Belichick over Josh McDaniels, etc, but sometimes, it just
makes sense to take stock of the teams as they stand
NOW, and analyze whether the pointspread set for the
game is right. Here it is not. A 4-0 team outscoring opponents
by 13.2 points per game should not be a home dog.
Play: Denver +3.5
10/11/09 (423) JACKSONVILLE at (424) SEATTLE
Here is an interesting StatFox Super Situation that will
apply for this game: Play On—Any team (SEATTLE)—an
average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average
defensive team (18-23 PPG), after trailing in their previous
game by 14 or more points at the half. (27-6 over the last
five seasons.) (81.8 percent, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*). The
truth is that these are both average teams. Seattle has
been hit by the injury bug. If all goes well, it could have
many of the key pieces back for Sunday, in which case, it
makes this game very difficult for Jacksonville. The Jaguars
will be in an unfamiliar environment, and in a typically unfavorable
line position. The Seahawks outplay factor rating
after four games is +0.3, meaning they are actually an
above-average team, and should be at least a two-point
favorite in this game.
Play: Seattle Pk
Statfox Platinum Sheet-College Foots
10/8/09 (303) NEBRASKA at (304) MISSOURI
One of the best clubs in the country in the early going will be in a huge revenge
spot on Thursday night on ESPN. Nebraska, boasting a StatFox Outplay
Factor Rating of +28.9, hits the road to take on Missouri, whose OF
is +4.7. To put that Nebraska number in perspective, there are only a few
teams this decade that finished the season with a better number. The
Cornhuskers are favored by just two points, a huge mistake. This line
should be over a touchdown, as those OF numbers prove these are simply
two different-level teams playing. Not only that, but they will be playing
with a huge chip on their shoulder, as the Tigers, one of Nebraska’s
closest rivals, has laid in on it by 35 points in back-to-back years. I don’t
often ride the revenge aspect, but when it is a rivalry game where the
clearly better team is the one with the bitter taste in its mouth, it pays.
‘Huskers roll here.
Play: Nebraska -2
10/10/09 (337) HOUSTON at (338) MISSISSIPPI STATE
If any game on this week’s list of Platinum Sheet feature contests looks
like a trap, it is this one. Houston has become the media darling in the
early going, racking up big point totals while knocking off the likes of
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. You’d figure this game against Mississippi
State would be a cakewalk, right? Well, how about this argument to
contradict that theory: Conference USA is favored on the road versus a
SEC team. That is rare, and that is wrong. The Bulldogs have already taken
on the likes of Auburn, LSU, and Georgia Tech, and while they lost all
three games, they were outcomes greatly influenced by turnovers. Right
now, Houston’s OF is just +3.6, Mississippi State’s is +2.7. The Cougars are
also allowing over 440 yards per game on defense. That makes it very difficult
to lay points with them, especially when in a tough and unfamiliar
environment. Great shot at an upset here.
Play: Mississippi State +3
10/10/09 (355) WISCONSIN at (356) OHIO STATE
Wisconsin started the year slow, but has really stepped it up the last three
weeks to advance to 5-0. The stats are marred by late rallies by Michigan
State and Minnesota in losing causes. Like past years where the Badgers
have excelled, they have flown under the national radar. That will no longer
be the case if they can upset the Buckeyes. However, do they have any
chance? Yes. This is a team finding itself finally, and has restored the ground
game that once defined the program behind huge running back John Clay.
They have also been successful in throwing the ball downfield. That is the
difference here, as Ohio State lacks offensive balance and that certainly
doesn’t warrant the Buckeyes being favored by more than a touchdown in
this game. Wisconsin has also played very well in Columbus, going 3-1 SU
& ATS in its last four trips. Only two remaining Big Ten teams are undefeated
at this point. One of them is a huge dog here. Not right.
Play: Wisconsin +14.5
10/10/09 (383) FLORIDA at (384) LSU
Assuming Tim Tebow plays, LSU is going to have its hands full in this contest
with Florida. While these teams might be in the same conference, the
Tigers simply aren’t in the same league as the Gators and haven’t been
since 2007. Trends like this prove it: LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home
games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last
three seasons. On the other side, head coach Urban Meyer’s team always
takes care of business in big games: FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75 percent) over the last
three seasons. This will be made out to be a big test for Florida. The truth
is it could be closer to a mismatch. The Gators move to 8-1 ATS versus the
Tigers in the last nine Baton Rouge meetings.
Play: Florida -9
10/10/09 (385) MICHIGAN at (386) IOWA
The bubble burst for Michigan last week and it gets even tougher from
here, as the Wolverines face what should be their toughest test of the entire
season, at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are off a near-upset loss to Arkansas
State, explainable by the fact that the game was sandwiched between
the huge Penn State win and this contest against the Wolverines. Iowa is
allowing 10 points per game fewer than Michigan, meaning a huge defensive
advantage. Michigan will have trouble scoring points in this one
and head coach Rich Rodriguez is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus very good
defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game in all games
he has coached. The hosts get it done here to remain unbeaten.
Play: Iowa -7.5
10/8/09 (303) NEBRASKA at (304) MISSOURI
One of the best clubs in the country in the early going will be in a huge revenge
spot on Thursday night on ESPN. Nebraska, boasting a StatFox Outplay
Factor Rating of +28.9, hits the road to take on Missouri, whose OF
is +4.7. To put that Nebraska number in perspective, there are only a few
teams this decade that finished the season with a better number. The
Cornhuskers are favored by just two points, a huge mistake. This line
should be over a touchdown, as those OF numbers prove these are simply
two different-level teams playing. Not only that, but they will be playing
with a huge chip on their shoulder, as the Tigers, one of Nebraska’s
closest rivals, has laid in on it by 35 points in back-to-back years. I don’t
often ride the revenge aspect, but when it is a rivalry game where the
clearly better team is the one with the bitter taste in its mouth, it pays.
‘Huskers roll here.
Play: Nebraska -2
10/10/09 (337) HOUSTON at (338) MISSISSIPPI STATE
If any game on this week’s list of Platinum Sheet feature contests looks
like a trap, it is this one. Houston has become the media darling in the
early going, racking up big point totals while knocking off the likes of
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. You’d figure this game against Mississippi
State would be a cakewalk, right? Well, how about this argument to
contradict that theory: Conference USA is favored on the road versus a
SEC team. That is rare, and that is wrong. The Bulldogs have already taken
on the likes of Auburn, LSU, and Georgia Tech, and while they lost all
three games, they were outcomes greatly influenced by turnovers. Right
now, Houston’s OF is just +3.6, Mississippi State’s is +2.7. The Cougars are
also allowing over 440 yards per game on defense. That makes it very difficult
to lay points with them, especially when in a tough and unfamiliar
environment. Great shot at an upset here.
Play: Mississippi State +3
10/10/09 (355) WISCONSIN at (356) OHIO STATE
Wisconsin started the year slow, but has really stepped it up the last three
weeks to advance to 5-0. The stats are marred by late rallies by Michigan
State and Minnesota in losing causes. Like past years where the Badgers
have excelled, they have flown under the national radar. That will no longer
be the case if they can upset the Buckeyes. However, do they have any
chance? Yes. This is a team finding itself finally, and has restored the ground
game that once defined the program behind huge running back John Clay.
They have also been successful in throwing the ball downfield. That is the
difference here, as Ohio State lacks offensive balance and that certainly
doesn’t warrant the Buckeyes being favored by more than a touchdown in
this game. Wisconsin has also played very well in Columbus, going 3-1 SU
& ATS in its last four trips. Only two remaining Big Ten teams are undefeated
at this point. One of them is a huge dog here. Not right.
Play: Wisconsin +14.5
10/10/09 (383) FLORIDA at (384) LSU
Assuming Tim Tebow plays, LSU is going to have its hands full in this contest
with Florida. While these teams might be in the same conference, the
Tigers simply aren’t in the same league as the Gators and haven’t been
since 2007. Trends like this prove it: LSU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home
games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last
three seasons. On the other side, head coach Urban Meyer’s team always
takes care of business in big games: FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75 percent) over the last
three seasons. This will be made out to be a big test for Florida. The truth
is it could be closer to a mismatch. The Gators move to 8-1 ATS versus the
Tigers in the last nine Baton Rouge meetings.
Play: Florida -9
10/10/09 (385) MICHIGAN at (386) IOWA
The bubble burst for Michigan last week and it gets even tougher from
here, as the Wolverines face what should be their toughest test of the entire
season, at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are off a near-upset loss to Arkansas
State, explainable by the fact that the game was sandwiched between
the huge Penn State win and this contest against the Wolverines. Iowa is
allowing 10 points per game fewer than Michigan, meaning a huge defensive
advantage. Michigan will have trouble scoring points in this one
and head coach Rich Rodriguez is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus very good
defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game in all games
he has coached. The hosts get it done here to remain unbeaten.
Play: Iowa -7.5
Logical Approach-College
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TOLEDO - 8 over Western Michigan - The scandals and off field issues that plagued the Toledo program the past few seasons are in the past and Toledo has emerged once again as an elite team in the MAC. They are 3-2 with both losses coming to Big 10 teams and one of their wins was a thrashing of Big 12 Colorado. They are off of a back to back road wins including their conference opener last week at Ball State. Western Michigan appears to be a middle of the pack MAC team at best and were routed last week in their MAC opener at Northern Illinois. WMU has won 3 straight in the series over a troubled Toledo team the past few seasons so the hosts do have the revenge motive in their favor against a foe they defeated 5 straight times earlier this decade. Toledo has the far more potent offense while both defenses are similar although Toledo's has faced tougher tests. Toledo wins 37-23.
Other Featured College Selections
MISSISSIPPI + 6 over Alabama - A few weeks back Ole' Miss justified those critics who felt the Rebels' high national ranking was unwarranted when Mississippi lost 16-10 at South Carolina. The Rebels did regroup to follow up that loss with a workmanlike road win at Vanderbilt last week. Meanwhile there is nothing not to like about Alabama. The Crimson Tide appear every bit as strong as last season when they went unbeaten into the SEC Title game. Yet interestingly this has been a very competitive series in recent seasons. The last 4 meetings have been decided by 3, 3, 3 and 4 points. Alabama won all 4 games but 3 of those wins came in seasons that saw Ole Miss win just 3, 4 and 3 games. This is Ole Miss' best team in decades notwithstanding that loss to 'Carolina. This is only their second home game of the season and they have a non-conference game against UAB up next while 'Bama hosts South Carolina. Ole Miss has an NFL caliber QB, a defense almost as good as Alabama's and their best chance to defeat their long time rival in years. Both defenses have been outstanding against the pass. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 20-17.
UCLA + 6 over Oregon - Oregon is now 4-1 following a pair of conference wins in which they outscored Cal and Washington State 94-9. The Ducks have shown steady improvement since that opening game loss at Boise State. However note that all 4 wins have come at home and Oregon now takes to the road for the first time in over a month. UCLA suffered their first loss last week at Stanford in their Pac 10 opener. The Bruins are challenged offensively but have played stout defense. Sandwiched around a nice road win at Tennessee are a pair of double digit home wins over San Diego State and Kansas State. Oregon has been the stronger team this decade, winning 6 of 9 meetings including 3 of 5 at UCLA. But 2 of those wins have been by a single point and UCLA won the most recent home game against Oregon 16-0 in 2007. UCLA is playing with a purpose, seeking to return to a Bowl after their 6 season streak was ended last season. The pieces are in place for a successful season with a solid defense and an offense that avoids turnovers. UCLA wins 27-23.
HAWAII + 9 over Fresno State - Hawaii is back home after playing 3 straight on the mainland. They won handily at Washington State before losing by a single point at UNLV and by 21 at Louisiana Tech. Fresno is just 1-3 and already considered a disappointment. They lost in OT at Wisconsin and then lost soundly at Boise State before playing well in a competitive loss at Cincinnati. Hawaii again eschews the run in favor of the pass. Hawaii has topped 300 passing yards in each game, averaging 395 ypg. Hawaii has won 7 of the last 10 meetings including 3 straight. Fresno does have a strong edge in the running game which is usually a key ingredient of success. Hawaii seems to be an exception as their success this decade has resulted from their reliance on the pass and an aggressive, hard hitting defense at home. Fresno's defense has forced just 2 turnovers this season and despite the glaring discrepancy in the primary stats, Fresno's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per rush while Hawaii's allows just 4.3. Ingredients for a non-surprising upset. Hawaii wins 30-20.
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: TOLEDO - 8 over Western Michigan - The scandals and off field issues that plagued the Toledo program the past few seasons are in the past and Toledo has emerged once again as an elite team in the MAC. They are 3-2 with both losses coming to Big 10 teams and one of their wins was a thrashing of Big 12 Colorado. They are off of a back to back road wins including their conference opener last week at Ball State. Western Michigan appears to be a middle of the pack MAC team at best and were routed last week in their MAC opener at Northern Illinois. WMU has won 3 straight in the series over a troubled Toledo team the past few seasons so the hosts do have the revenge motive in their favor against a foe they defeated 5 straight times earlier this decade. Toledo has the far more potent offense while both defenses are similar although Toledo's has faced tougher tests. Toledo wins 37-23.
Other Featured College Selections
MISSISSIPPI + 6 over Alabama - A few weeks back Ole' Miss justified those critics who felt the Rebels' high national ranking was unwarranted when Mississippi lost 16-10 at South Carolina. The Rebels did regroup to follow up that loss with a workmanlike road win at Vanderbilt last week. Meanwhile there is nothing not to like about Alabama. The Crimson Tide appear every bit as strong as last season when they went unbeaten into the SEC Title game. Yet interestingly this has been a very competitive series in recent seasons. The last 4 meetings have been decided by 3, 3, 3 and 4 points. Alabama won all 4 games but 3 of those wins came in seasons that saw Ole Miss win just 3, 4 and 3 games. This is Ole Miss' best team in decades notwithstanding that loss to 'Carolina. This is only their second home game of the season and they have a non-conference game against UAB up next while 'Bama hosts South Carolina. Ole Miss has an NFL caliber QB, a defense almost as good as Alabama's and their best chance to defeat their long time rival in years. Both defenses have been outstanding against the pass. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 20-17.
UCLA + 6 over Oregon - Oregon is now 4-1 following a pair of conference wins in which they outscored Cal and Washington State 94-9. The Ducks have shown steady improvement since that opening game loss at Boise State. However note that all 4 wins have come at home and Oregon now takes to the road for the first time in over a month. UCLA suffered their first loss last week at Stanford in their Pac 10 opener. The Bruins are challenged offensively but have played stout defense. Sandwiched around a nice road win at Tennessee are a pair of double digit home wins over San Diego State and Kansas State. Oregon has been the stronger team this decade, winning 6 of 9 meetings including 3 of 5 at UCLA. But 2 of those wins have been by a single point and UCLA won the most recent home game against Oregon 16-0 in 2007. UCLA is playing with a purpose, seeking to return to a Bowl after their 6 season streak was ended last season. The pieces are in place for a successful season with a solid defense and an offense that avoids turnovers. UCLA wins 27-23.
HAWAII + 9 over Fresno State - Hawaii is back home after playing 3 straight on the mainland. They won handily at Washington State before losing by a single point at UNLV and by 21 at Louisiana Tech. Fresno is just 1-3 and already considered a disappointment. They lost in OT at Wisconsin and then lost soundly at Boise State before playing well in a competitive loss at Cincinnati. Hawaii again eschews the run in favor of the pass. Hawaii has topped 300 passing yards in each game, averaging 395 ypg. Hawaii has won 7 of the last 10 meetings including 3 straight. Fresno does have a strong edge in the running game which is usually a key ingredient of success. Hawaii seems to be an exception as their success this decade has resulted from their reliance on the pass and an aggressive, hard hitting defense at home. Fresno's defense has forced just 2 turnovers this season and despite the glaring discrepancy in the primary stats, Fresno's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per rush while Hawaii's allows just 4.3. Ingredients for a non-surprising upset. Hawaii wins 30-20.
