Dwayne Bryant
TENNESSEE +6
This simply boils down to the fact that I think we're getting some good value on Tennessee here. The Vols may only bring a 7-5 record into this one, but I'd be willing to bet they'd be at least a 9-3 team in the ACC. When I look at how each team did against bowl opponents this season, I see Virginia Tech at 3-4-1 ATS and +52 yards per game, and Tennessee at 5-4 ATS and +20 yards per game. Pretty similar.
Virginia Tech's defense is very solid, ranked 14th in the nation, allowing 300.08 yards per game on 4.63 yards per play. But Tennessee's D is every bit as good. The Vols defense is ranked 18th in the nation, allowing 308.83 yards per game on 4.71 yards per play. And the Vols accomplished that against some very tough SEC competition. Back to the VT defense: while still very good, they're not as dominant in the trenches as they have been in years past. And Tennessee's o-line has only allowed 12 sacks all year in the tough SEC.
Looking at the second half of each team's season, I see the Hokies winning their last four games by double digits, but they were also favored by double digits in each contest. They were beaten by two bowl teams (North Carolina and Georgia Tech) in the two games prior. Tennessee did get spanked by Ole Miss, but they also beat bowl teams Kentucky and South Carolina. And let's not forget that Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and fell just short against #1 Alabama, 12-10, in a game they really should've won. That shows me that this Tennessee team can hang with anyone on any given day.
In fact, the one common opponent I see for these two teams is #1 Alabama. Tennessee played them on the road and lost by 2, while Virginia Tech played them on a neutral field and lost by 10. But let's look even deeper. Tennessee actually outgained Alabama 341-256, while Virginia Tech got outgained 498-155!
Motivation is also a key factor in handicapping bowl games. I have to believe that edge goes to Tennessee. At 7-5 and with first-year coach Lane Kiffin, the Vols have to be thrilled to be playing in a primetime bowl game. I doubt the Hokies share the same enthusiasm. VT had national title aspirations coming into the season. And not only were those dreams shattered early, but they're not even in a BCS bowl. Heck, they didn't even land a New Year's Day bowl invitation! This has to be a huge disappointment for Virginia Tech.
Bottom line: These two teams are SO close in talent, that the points are the only play here. It very well could come down to a FG. And I always love getting points with an SEC team playing with a motivational edge against a non-conference opponent. Grab the points with Tennessee.
TENNESSEE +6
This simply boils down to the fact that I think we're getting some good value on Tennessee here. The Vols may only bring a 7-5 record into this one, but I'd be willing to bet they'd be at least a 9-3 team in the ACC. When I look at how each team did against bowl opponents this season, I see Virginia Tech at 3-4-1 ATS and +52 yards per game, and Tennessee at 5-4 ATS and +20 yards per game. Pretty similar.
Virginia Tech's defense is very solid, ranked 14th in the nation, allowing 300.08 yards per game on 4.63 yards per play. But Tennessee's D is every bit as good. The Vols defense is ranked 18th in the nation, allowing 308.83 yards per game on 4.71 yards per play. And the Vols accomplished that against some very tough SEC competition. Back to the VT defense: while still very good, they're not as dominant in the trenches as they have been in years past. And Tennessee's o-line has only allowed 12 sacks all year in the tough SEC.
Looking at the second half of each team's season, I see the Hokies winning their last four games by double digits, but they were also favored by double digits in each contest. They were beaten by two bowl teams (North Carolina and Georgia Tech) in the two games prior. Tennessee did get spanked by Ole Miss, but they also beat bowl teams Kentucky and South Carolina. And let's not forget that Tennessee went into Tuscaloosa and fell just short against #1 Alabama, 12-10, in a game they really should've won. That shows me that this Tennessee team can hang with anyone on any given day.
In fact, the one common opponent I see for these two teams is #1 Alabama. Tennessee played them on the road and lost by 2, while Virginia Tech played them on a neutral field and lost by 10. But let's look even deeper. Tennessee actually outgained Alabama 341-256, while Virginia Tech got outgained 498-155!
Motivation is also a key factor in handicapping bowl games. I have to believe that edge goes to Tennessee. At 7-5 and with first-year coach Lane Kiffin, the Vols have to be thrilled to be playing in a primetime bowl game. I doubt the Hokies share the same enthusiasm. VT had national title aspirations coming into the season. And not only were those dreams shattered early, but they're not even in a BCS bowl. Heck, they didn't even land a New Year's Day bowl invitation! This has to be a huge disappointment for Virginia Tech.
Bottom line: These two teams are SO close in talent, that the points are the only play here. It very well could come down to a FG. And I always love getting points with an SEC team playing with a motivational edge against a non-conference opponent. Grab the points with Tennessee.
