Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
20 Dime --- VIRGINIA TECH
10 Dime --- 3 Team, 10-Point Teaser: MISSOURI, STANFORD AND IOWA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH --- I'm not quite sure why the rest of the country is in love with Tennessee or, worse yet, why they hate Virginia Tech so much, but I'll gladly take my chances with this team laying less than a touchdown. The first thing that caught my eye was the fact this line kept going up, from 4 to 4.5 to 5 and even as high as 5.5 and 6 in some places. Then I noticed the money keeps pouring in on Tennessee. It's called reverse line movement... sometimes I play it, sometimes I don't. Today, I'm all over it. I think Vegas knows Virginia Tech is a savvy Bowl team and Frank Beamer is a savvy Bowl coach facing a head coach who's known more for stirring up trouble than winning football games.
I admit, when I first looked at this game I was in love with Tennessee... and I know they always say "go with your first gut instinct". I thought about it, but there were a few things that turned me over to the Hokies and I wanted to let you know about them. First, the reverse line movement, but I already told you about that.
Second was the fact that just about every capper I know is on Tennessee. They saw the same thing I saw when I first looked at this line, but they stuck with their gut instinct and released Tennessee. Remember Clemson/Kentucky last Sunday? I was the only capper at this site who released Clemson -7 while everyone else released Kentucky. This game smells just like that one.
Third, I noticed that Tennessee finished the season strong, but a closer look at those games saw the Vols beat a very bad Vandy team by 15, Kentucky by 6, Memphis by 28, and South Carolina by 18. Only the South Carolina game was somewhat impressive. But even in those wins the Vols gave up a decent amount of points and over 300 yards of total offense. But the one game that stood out to me in the midst of winning those four games was the 42-17 loss to Ole Miss. In that game the Vols were outrushed by 260 yards for three reasons. 1. Ole Miss does a good job of stopping the run. 2. Ole Miss can run the ball on offense. 3. Tennessee has had it's fair share of trouble stopping the run. Folks, those three factors all play into our hands with V. Tech tonight.
The Hokies can run the ball, they do a great job of stopping the run, and they know Tennessee allowed 216 yards per game on the ground away from home this year. V Tech rushes for over 200 yards per game and was up to 238 YPG over their last three games of the regular season.
Fourth, public perception is that Virginia Tech can't win the big one. It seems as if every time the Hokies make it to National TV, they fail to impress the media and the general public. No wonder everyone is backing the Vols today. But that's exactly why I'm jumping on board the Hokie express. Tech allowed a total of 35 points over their final 4 games (less than 9 PPG) and finally figured out how to stop the run and the pass. Let's also not forget they scored 36, 38 and 43 points in their last three games, so it's not like this team has forgotten how to score.
The Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record and finished the season going 4-0 ATS while Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. non-conference opponents and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 when listed as a pup of between 4 and 10 points. All Hokies tonight boys.
3-team, 10-point teaser --- MISSOURI, IOWA STATE AND STANFORD --- Grabbing Mizzou at around +3 1/2, Iowa State at around +13 and Stanford at around +20... and I love all three because I have a feeling all three of these teams could win straight up... especially Missouri and Iowa State. Stanford is a bit of a stretch without QB Andrew Luck, but just running the ball with Toby Gerhart 35 times is enough to keep Oklahoma's offense off the field long enough for us to get in under the 20 points. I just can't see this Oklahoma offense, which has been absolutely putrid on the road, score enough to beat a very "game" Stanford team by three touchdowns. Honestly, this play is more AGAINST OU than it is for Stanford, because I've watched Bob Stoops go 1-5 ATS in his last 6 bowl games and I've seen him lose, time and time again, even when he's listed as the favorite. And consider this... Stanford (with or without Andrew Luck) is excited to be in this game, Oklahoma is not. Remember, the Sooners started the season with aspirations for another trip to the National Championship game, and instead they find themselves in the Sun Bowl. You tell me who's more excited to be here?
As for Missouri, well, I just think Navy is outclassed in this one. No disrespect to our Naval Academy, but I watched them play Army and it was the most disgusting game I've watched in a long time. Navy struggled to move the ball against the Knights... and I'm supposed to believe they can play the athletes Missouri has and move the ball any better? Did you watch Navy go to Hawaii a few weeks back? It was brutal. They had trouble moving the ball on that horrendous defense and they couldn't stop Hawaii's passing game. So what's to make us believe they can stop Mizzou? They can't, and the Tigers will win this game SU.
Iowa State gets a Minnesota team from the Big 10... a conference that perennially struggles in bowl games. And with Wisconsin winning the other night, it's time for a Big 10 team to lose and the Gophers are a great candidate. To be honest, I'm not sure how they made a bowl game in the first place. Don't get me wrong... I'm not here to crown Iowa State as the next coming to Florida, but they did upset Nebraska in Lincoln and had a few other impressive games along the way. HC Paul Rhoads has done a remarkable job getting the most out of a team that dealt with numerous injuries all season long. Well now they're as healthy as they've been all season and they want to prove to the country that the season wasn't a fluke. In fact, they want to prove they were better than their record would indicate. Minnesota lost four of their last six and will likely be without their leading receiver, Eric Decker... the only player that provides a legitimate offensive threat.
paid and confirmed
Thursday's Lineup
20 Dime --- VIRGINIA TECH
10 Dime --- 3 Team, 10-Point Teaser: MISSOURI, STANFORD AND IOWA STATE
VIRGINIA TECH --- I'm not quite sure why the rest of the country is in love with Tennessee or, worse yet, why they hate Virginia Tech so much, but I'll gladly take my chances with this team laying less than a touchdown. The first thing that caught my eye was the fact this line kept going up, from 4 to 4.5 to 5 and even as high as 5.5 and 6 in some places. Then I noticed the money keeps pouring in on Tennessee. It's called reverse line movement... sometimes I play it, sometimes I don't. Today, I'm all over it. I think Vegas knows Virginia Tech is a savvy Bowl team and Frank Beamer is a savvy Bowl coach facing a head coach who's known more for stirring up trouble than winning football games.
I admit, when I first looked at this game I was in love with Tennessee... and I know they always say "go with your first gut instinct". I thought about it, but there were a few things that turned me over to the Hokies and I wanted to let you know about them. First, the reverse line movement, but I already told you about that.
Second was the fact that just about every capper I know is on Tennessee. They saw the same thing I saw when I first looked at this line, but they stuck with their gut instinct and released Tennessee. Remember Clemson/Kentucky last Sunday? I was the only capper at this site who released Clemson -7 while everyone else released Kentucky. This game smells just like that one.
Third, I noticed that Tennessee finished the season strong, but a closer look at those games saw the Vols beat a very bad Vandy team by 15, Kentucky by 6, Memphis by 28, and South Carolina by 18. Only the South Carolina game was somewhat impressive. But even in those wins the Vols gave up a decent amount of points and over 300 yards of total offense. But the one game that stood out to me in the midst of winning those four games was the 42-17 loss to Ole Miss. In that game the Vols were outrushed by 260 yards for three reasons. 1. Ole Miss does a good job of stopping the run. 2. Ole Miss can run the ball on offense. 3. Tennessee has had it's fair share of trouble stopping the run. Folks, those three factors all play into our hands with V. Tech tonight.
The Hokies can run the ball, they do a great job of stopping the run, and they know Tennessee allowed 216 yards per game on the ground away from home this year. V Tech rushes for over 200 yards per game and was up to 238 YPG over their last three games of the regular season.
Fourth, public perception is that Virginia Tech can't win the big one. It seems as if every time the Hokies make it to National TV, they fail to impress the media and the general public. No wonder everyone is backing the Vols today. But that's exactly why I'm jumping on board the Hokie express. Tech allowed a total of 35 points over their final 4 games (less than 9 PPG) and finally figured out how to stop the run and the pass. Let's also not forget they scored 36, 38 and 43 points in their last three games, so it's not like this team has forgotten how to score.
The Hokies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record and finished the season going 4-0 ATS while Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. non-conference opponents and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 when listed as a pup of between 4 and 10 points. All Hokies tonight boys.
3-team, 10-point teaser --- MISSOURI, IOWA STATE AND STANFORD --- Grabbing Mizzou at around +3 1/2, Iowa State at around +13 and Stanford at around +20... and I love all three because I have a feeling all three of these teams could win straight up... especially Missouri and Iowa State. Stanford is a bit of a stretch without QB Andrew Luck, but just running the ball with Toby Gerhart 35 times is enough to keep Oklahoma's offense off the field long enough for us to get in under the 20 points. I just can't see this Oklahoma offense, which has been absolutely putrid on the road, score enough to beat a very "game" Stanford team by three touchdowns. Honestly, this play is more AGAINST OU than it is for Stanford, because I've watched Bob Stoops go 1-5 ATS in his last 6 bowl games and I've seen him lose, time and time again, even when he's listed as the favorite. And consider this... Stanford (with or without Andrew Luck) is excited to be in this game, Oklahoma is not. Remember, the Sooners started the season with aspirations for another trip to the National Championship game, and instead they find themselves in the Sun Bowl. You tell me who's more excited to be here?
As for Missouri, well, I just think Navy is outclassed in this one. No disrespect to our Naval Academy, but I watched them play Army and it was the most disgusting game I've watched in a long time. Navy struggled to move the ball against the Knights... and I'm supposed to believe they can play the athletes Missouri has and move the ball any better? Did you watch Navy go to Hawaii a few weeks back? It was brutal. They had trouble moving the ball on that horrendous defense and they couldn't stop Hawaii's passing game. So what's to make us believe they can stop Mizzou? They can't, and the Tigers will win this game SU.
Iowa State gets a Minnesota team from the Big 10... a conference that perennially struggles in bowl games. And with Wisconsin winning the other night, it's time for a Big 10 team to lose and the Gophers are a great candidate. To be honest, I'm not sure how they made a bowl game in the first place. Don't get me wrong... I'm not here to crown Iowa State as the next coming to Florida, but they did upset Nebraska in Lincoln and had a few other impressive games along the way. HC Paul Rhoads has done a remarkable job getting the most out of a team that dealt with numerous injuries all season long. Well now they're as healthy as they've been all season and they want to prove to the country that the season wasn't a fluke. In fact, they want to prove they were better than their record would indicate. Minnesota lost four of their last six and will likely be without their leading receiver, Eric Decker... the only player that provides a legitimate offensive threat.
paid and confirmed
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +1.68 over DETROIT
The Red Wings have been shutout in three of its last four games and that alone makes them a huge risk at this price. The team is simply not generating enough offense. They were shutout by the Jackets last game, a team that has had more defensive breakdowns than just about anyone. Yeah, the Joe will be electric on New Year’s Eve but so what. The AV’s have been terrific on the road and they’ve also been great against the Northeast, going a perfect 4-0-0 thus far. Oh, against the East overall, Colorado has gone 8-2-1. It’s also worth noting that the Av’s have been staying out of the box and in fact, has taken just one minor penalty in its last two games. Keep the Red Wings off the power-play and their chances of scoring are even worse. Anyway, no matter how you break it down, this one is an overlay for sure and that makes the Avalanche a good wager. Play: Colorado +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA -½ +1.27 over Montreal
The Habs are looking much better these days for sure but damn, this is a tough spot. Montreal will be playing its third game in four days and its seventh straight on the road. They played last night in Tampa Bay and this one starts at 5:00 PM EST, which means they’ll be back on the ice after finishing a game last night about 10:00 PM. That in itself is a quirk in the schedule and it’s not like the Habs are in a desperate situation, as they’ve won five of its last six games. The Panthers are rested and will be raring to go after three losses in its last four. The Panthers will also get Cory Stillman back tonight and that gives them another scoring forward that will bring a ton of energy to the team. One has to figure the Habs to be running strictly on fumes here after that physical and intense OT win last night. Play: Florida -½ +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ -1.05 over New Jersey
The Blackhawks catch the Devils at precisely the right time here, as New Jersey beat the hated Penguins last night, 2-0. Now the Devils will travel to play a team they rarely see for its third game in four days. The Devils are an established power in this league and have been for years so for them this is just another game. The Blackhawks on the other hand will get a chance to play against one of the best in ideal circumstances in what should feature one of the rowdiest crowds in years. Chicago is rested, they’re playing great hockey, they’re absolutely loaded and they might just hand this tired intruder a beating. This wager looks so good. Play: Chicago -½ -1.05 (Risking 3.15 units to win 3).
DETROIT –4½ over Chicago
The Pistons have dropped an incredible eight straight games but this is where it ends. Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon are all back in the lineup following lengthy absences and this will be the third game back for all three. The good news is that this assignment couldn’t be any easier. The Bulls are a bad team and you can triple that on the road where they’ve won just twice in 13 tries. They beat the Pacers in its last game but allowed that team an eye-opening 38 points in the second quarter to get back into it. So, not only have the Pistons lost eight in a row but they’ve also dropped four straight to the Bulls and both those sets of results will have them extra jacked up here. The Pistons have to win this game and frankly, it’s just so highly unlikely that they won’t come out firing on all cylinders and perhaps put together its best game of the year on New Year’s Eve (well sort of, the game tips off at 3:00 PM). Play: Detroit –4½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Colorado +1.68 over DETROIT
The Red Wings have been shutout in three of its last four games and that alone makes them a huge risk at this price. The team is simply not generating enough offense. They were shutout by the Jackets last game, a team that has had more defensive breakdowns than just about anyone. Yeah, the Joe will be electric on New Year’s Eve but so what. The AV’s have been terrific on the road and they’ve also been great against the Northeast, going a perfect 4-0-0 thus far. Oh, against the East overall, Colorado has gone 8-2-1. It’s also worth noting that the Av’s have been staying out of the box and in fact, has taken just one minor penalty in its last two games. Keep the Red Wings off the power-play and their chances of scoring are even worse. Anyway, no matter how you break it down, this one is an overlay for sure and that makes the Avalanche a good wager. Play: Colorado +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA -½ +1.27 over Montreal
The Habs are looking much better these days for sure but damn, this is a tough spot. Montreal will be playing its third game in four days and its seventh straight on the road. They played last night in Tampa Bay and this one starts at 5:00 PM EST, which means they’ll be back on the ice after finishing a game last night about 10:00 PM. That in itself is a quirk in the schedule and it’s not like the Habs are in a desperate situation, as they’ve won five of its last six games. The Panthers are rested and will be raring to go after three losses in its last four. The Panthers will also get Cory Stillman back tonight and that gives them another scoring forward that will bring a ton of energy to the team. One has to figure the Habs to be running strictly on fumes here after that physical and intense OT win last night. Play: Florida -½ +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO -½ -1.05 over New Jersey
The Blackhawks catch the Devils at precisely the right time here, as New Jersey beat the hated Penguins last night, 2-0. Now the Devils will travel to play a team they rarely see for its third game in four days. The Devils are an established power in this league and have been for years so for them this is just another game. The Blackhawks on the other hand will get a chance to play against one of the best in ideal circumstances in what should feature one of the rowdiest crowds in years. Chicago is rested, they’re playing great hockey, they’re absolutely loaded and they might just hand this tired intruder a beating. This wager looks so good. Play: Chicago -½ -1.05 (Risking 3.15 units to win 3).
DETROIT –4½ over Chicago
The Pistons have dropped an incredible eight straight games but this is where it ends. Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon are all back in the lineup following lengthy absences and this will be the third game back for all three. The good news is that this assignment couldn’t be any easier. The Bulls are a bad team and you can triple that on the road where they’ve won just twice in 13 tries. They beat the Pacers in its last game but allowed that team an eye-opening 38 points in the second quarter to get back into it. So, not only have the Pistons lost eight in a row but they’ve also dropped four straight to the Bulls and both those sets of results will have them extra jacked up here. The Pistons have to win this game and frankly, it’s just so highly unlikely that they won’t come out firing on all cylinders and perhaps put together its best game of the year on New Year’s Eve (well sort of, the game tips off at 3:00 PM). Play: Detroit –4½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
