I was reading one of those newsletters that cpaw submitted about some power system facts about the situations that Penn State are in.. Those are kind of nuts what does everyone think?
Teams like USC that were very strong defensively in the second half of the season have not been able to carry that over to success as favorites in Bowl Games. This is documented by a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 2 points off allowing less than 62 combined points in its last 6 games.
With TCU failing to cover the spread in their win over Boise State, these teams are now 0-9 ATS since 1992.
In a Bowl battle of 1-loss teams, the underdog has done exceptionally well as shown by a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog with exactly 1 SU loss vs. an opponent with exactly 1 SU loss not off a home SU win of more than 21 points as a favorite of more than 16 points.
Since the start of the college football SportsDataBase in 1980, these teams are 15-0 ATS, while covering the spread by nearly 11 ppg.
Another POWER SYSTEM that Penn State qualifies for reads:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 1 point with less than 3 season SU losses off a SU win of 14+ points.
Just since 2003, these teams are 9-0 ATS, beating the spread by better than 9 ppg on average.
Our database research has uncovered yet another POWER SYSTEM that the Nittany Lions are active for, this time due to their defensive efforts on the season, as they did not allow more than 24 points in any single game. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of 6+ points with 0 season games allowing 29+ points vs. an opponent not off an ATS win as a favorite of more than 28 points in its last game.
Since 1990, these teams are 10-0 ATS, which is a decent number; however, the mind-boggling aspect of this system is that the qualifying teams have covered the spread by nearly TWENTY points per game.