new week 4 new movies...

[HuskerFan1]

well i just got home and looked at the boards and i cant make heads or tails out of his early #'s so...not gonna lose sleep over it...have to wait until tomorrow #s come out....the only thing i could possible go on is maybe what people expect of borat this week and take these #s and compare to TENCD #'s...which arent far behind..HF is #1 again this week without a doubt....we will know more tomorrow...



7:45 PST Update (from the man)

BORAT
156 $1237
99 $859

JB21
394 $3082
113 $904
202 $1668

DECK
136 $1071
64 $499

DEJA
230 $1928
207 $1587
207 $1234
(And yes I do think it's amusing two prints have exactly the same attend

FYCON
31 $268

FOUNT
140 $1,195

HPY
472 $3,719
308 $2,418
360 $2717

TENCD
88 $721
112 $1009

 

[syddiggers]

Had no idea Tenacious D was Jack Black's "band" who is actually on tour at the moment. Anybody know how big his band is? Do they actually sell out shows? He's obviously getting some nice publicity from his tour.[/quote]



Hi Guys,

I have absolutely no clue in regards to your movie capping but I read some of your threads with interest as I am always after a potential new earn. I dont know if im too late for the Thanksgiving Day Weekend but be wary of the Tenacious D movie, it may look stupid, but not only does Jack Black have a following, his and Kyle Gass's band, Tenacious D is a real band and has toured the world for the past 5 years, and this movie has been a long time in the planning.

I saw them in concert in Australia 4 years ago and they were fantastic. They have built up a cult following based on songs that feature fantastic guitar playing along with ridicuously funny lyrics. You will get the casual music fan who wont care so much about the overall quality of the movie but who will go for the music.

Hope I didnt interfere and good luck.

 

[HPark1]

thks for info sd. This weekend with thanksgiving in the US movies opened wednesday so the lines are off the board now but its the thought that counts:tongue:

Estimates out don't look good for any Overs. Deja and Deck especially seem like they won't get within a few million of their number. Tenacious is on pace for 9ish or so while The Fountain is looking at 6ish.

 

[Labeeb]

Damn...should have stayed with all of my original under positions instead of scalping two of them.

I think it's going to be tought for any of the 4 to make their initial totals posted.

 

[HuskerFan1]

i dont like that # thats for sure...have no idea what to expect for today with it being a national holiday...

friday estimates will tell the real story...thats really all we can do now is wait a couple days...people are talking about these 5day multipliers etc...i wouldnt put as much stock into those like i would if it was a 3day where you know where you stand after fridays #s for the most part...

 

[Labeeb]

Yeah, a five day multiplier is ridiculous, especially with a virtual dark day today. That being said, I'll still be anxiously awaiting today's estimates when they come out tomorrow.

Friday will be the make or break day.

 

[HuskerFan1]

labeeb its not as dark as you would think...im board so i went back to last years thanksgiving weekend # on lees and wrote them down just to compare...the new releases were
your/mine/ours
just friends
in the mix
rent (this ones #s were really fu-ked so useless imo)

anyways here is how they break down day by day and % increases and decreases...

wed
YMO (yours/mine/ours) 3.18m
Rent 4.7m
JF (just friends) 2m
ITM (in the mix) .8

thursday
YMO 3.67 +16%
Rent 2.35 -50%
JF 2.1 +5%
ITM .89 +9%

friday
YMO 6.97 +81%
Rent 4.33 +78%
JF 3.75 +64%
ITM 1.75 +93%

saturday
YMO 6.7 -3%
rent 3.8 -12%
ITM 1.89 +8%
JF 3.7 -1%

now seeing the bet i need to win is TENCD bc DTH is a loser and TENCD is my 2unit play...im just gonna use the # from ITM bc its the closest to how TENCD performed # wise...

ITM did 1.69M wed/thurs and 4.45 fri-sun for 6.13m 5day total
TENCD did 1.35 on wed it beat ITMs wednesday # by 69%

if you take the 6.13 for ITM and multiply it by 69% you get a 10.4M total...i know this is totally early stages and the genres etc arent the same etc...just a rough run thru the #'s...dending on how TENCD performs today it might give this example a little more crediblity....

one thing is certain judging by last years #'s tencd MUST have a higher take (10% if you go by this example) than it did on wednesday too keep pace with ITM or i would say its a dead under....

 

[HuskerFan1]

fwiw ITM did .82 on sunday and was off a whopping 56% from its saturday #s...that is a STEEP sunday drop...so judging how TENCD does today we might have a clearer look at what it might do for the 5days vs;s that movie...

again i dont know anything about that movie etc i just used that bc wed# wise it was closest doing 500K more than it...

 

[Labeeb]

I know we saw TPOD totally differently, but it looks like it will need a killer Friday and Saturday with a small drop Sunday in order to hit. I have it needing a 10%/100/flat/-40 or so to make the 10.

I couldn't bite off a fourth piece of that under, even at 10.5. I was locked in with my three under 10m plays.

Good luck.

 

[HuskerFan1]

i agree completely with your feelings...if it doesnt increase TODAY i dont think i have a shot at it hitting....

leesmovieinfo.net is a really great site to go back and compare #'s...they have a little box where you plug in the month/day/year and it brings up the BO#'s...it goes back to 2001....i even looked at turkeyday 2004 and 9 of the 10movies increased on thursday over wed #'s...so who knows...

we will see tomorrow

Happy Thanksgiving

 

[HuskerFan1]

terrible #s for TENCD yesterday..under 1million...cant understand why this is bombing so hard

gonna go 0-2 this week :hammerit

DTH increased nicely from 2 to 2.8 but dont think that has a realistic shot...would need 15million over the weekend...

From SBD:
1. CASINO ROYALE SONY 3,443 7,560,000 2,196 n/a 63,361,000
2. HAPPY FEET WARNER BROS. 3,804 6,010,000 1,580 n/a 61,956,000
3. DEJA VU BVI 3,108 4,555,000 1,466 n/a 8,105,000
4. DECK THE HALLS 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,203 2,835,000 885 n/a 4,865,000
5. BORAT 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,580 2,629,000 1,019 30% 99,000,000
6. SANTA CLAUSE 3: THE ESCAPE CLAUSE BVI 3,043 2,175,000 715 282% 57,362,000
7. STRANGER THAN FICTION SONY 2,258 1,335,000 591 98% 26,820,000
8. BOBBY PARAMOUNT 1,667 1,175,000 705 n/a 1,270,000
9. FOUNTAIN, THE WARNER BROS. 1,049 875,000 834 n/a 1,740,000
10. TENACIOUS D IN THE PICK OF DESTINY NEW LINE 1,919 845,000 440 n/a 2,163,000

 

[Labeeb]

Friday numbers are out and it looks like barring a mirale for DTH, everything will be going under this week. Damn scalps.

 

[HuskerFan1]

ya sucks..hate giving anything back after last week...goddamn dth if it only could mustered a little better # (i was praying for a 6M and woulda had a shot with a 5.5 or so) on friday mighta had a shot at going over which woulda been sweet...christ hf and cr just dominated...

TENCD i dont understand at all...talk about a friggen flop...arrrgghhh

 

[Labeeb]

christ hf and cr just dominated...

That was the key this week. The two holdovers were WAY too strong for this weak crop of films and they skewed a lot of the demos. It'll still be a nicely profitable week here.

Get them next week.