New to Tracking Plays... Time to Document my Plays

[lockcity23]

hello... lets start this thread with a confident 4* play.
I will not talk about my past records as it doesn't matter at this point. All that matters is what I will post going forward.

take the MIAMI HEAT -8.5

Orlando defeated Miami in their previous match up 104-98 in Overtime. The line was the heat -4 during that game and ballooned all the way to -9 then dropping to -8.5 for tonight's game. This is exactly what I wanted to see. Public perception has it that if Orlando won the previous match up and now are getting more points why not take Orlando right? They cant be more wrong! Miami should comfortably win by double digits this time around. Miami just defeated the 76er's and are now coming home for revenge! I see the Miami Heat going now on a little run themselves and it starts tonight!

Some key trends I would love to share!
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5

also have a 2* with Florida-14.

Lets all make some money tonight

 

[TerribleCapper]

careful on playn team off rd trip , gl

 

[lockcity23]

thanks TerribleCapper I have followed your plays. keep up the good work...

 

[T-CANE]

gl

 

[TerribleCapper]

Nice call

 

[lockcity23]

nice start going 2-0 up 6 units...
everyone keep a look out for todays plays...

 

[lockcity23]

should have a total of 3 plays today,
lets start with 2* on Penn +1.5 against Butler

Today is a perfect day to take a dog or two if you are looking to handicap March Madness. This game has been circled by many books out there because it's receiving a lot of action of Butler. I actually don't think they really care about receiving the heavy action on Butler. If you just judge a book by the cover you automatically pick Butler, especially when they were getting a point! The line was right in the morning. Butler is clearly the dog between the match up but the public doesn't really know that. Now that PENNSYLVANIA is getting close to two points where do I sign up?

Some key statistics:

Pennsylvania is shooting close to 38% in 3-pointers! Butler on the other hand is shooting a very cold 27.5% Butler is also allowing over 31% on three pointers, this will come to play tonight. Pennsylvania last 5 games have been awesome, they nearly allowed 10 less points than their defensive average through the year. Public perception has Buter being the household name. They have trully struggled this year and has never been consistent offensively and their poor shooting is showing to be the key reasons why they lose. Getting the better team plus points and being part of a huge public fade tonight is the play here.

Keep your eyes open for 2 possible NBA plays later today Denver\/Dallas game and Minnesota\/Golden State.
good luck...

 

[T-CANE]

I agree here on that game, big action and public not knowing Ivy league school. GL

 

[varkeyboy]

Let's go PENN!

 

[lockcity23]

Penn just not showing up like i thought they would...
4* 1-0
2* 1-1
record 2-1

lets bounce back with NBA play...

 

[lockcity23]

i would have 2 plays for tonight but i just can't play the under on warriors games at home...
everything is point to the under on this one but can't seem to pull the trigger on this one...

lets end the night with another 2* on Denver minus the points.
Denver -4 2*

 

[lockcity23]

Ok the inside info on this game is too much for me to look away...

This line initially started off at 206 and sharply went down to 204. My play was initially on the over as I hate playing UNDERS when the Warriors are playing in the Oracle. I have confirmed that the money was indeed sharp that caused the line to drop from 206 to 204. If you think about it, if this game was going to go over wouldn't Vegas create a line in the 210 range. The entire Pacific Divison has a massive over backing at the moment. People are really going nuts because these guys are starting to score. The last couple totals have been the highest of all season, this is no different. Minnesota playing over 212.5 against the Kings last night really raised some eyebrows considering how large the backing for the over last night was as well. The lines have really dictated how things are going to go lately. Put this together with Golden State, a team everyone just assumes will play over, its putting gas on the fire. With Ellis gone and Curry out, this is not the 97 point team they are dressed up as. These moves have cost the team three possessions in their last three games and I think will eventually drop this Warriors team down to a pace team. There is a big ceremony for Chris Mullin and his jersey retirement. This means all the Warriors are on their feet for 20 minutes prior to tip off on the court. This kills emotion prior to tip off and slows things down in a
hurry. Since I don't want to force the again and hate when games get extended I will go with my GUT and say the the pace of the game will start slow. at 102.5 at the Half I will have to take the under.

4* under 102.5 First Half Warriors/Wolves

some trends to keep in mind (although trends are not the way to pick plays, just some facts to look at)
Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 4-1 in Timberwolves last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings

 

[candylicker]

very solid info... glad you are posting....

 

[lockcity23]

sorry for the misstep on denver... they came out flat... not the same team i saw them to be... will need to reevaluate denver as a team...
went 1-2 today for a net of 0 units taking a lose on juice....

on a positive not 4* plays are 2-0, 2* 1-2. will need to bunch back.
YTD record 3-2, up 2 units

will be back tomorrow for bounce back

 

[varkeyboy]

What's your MAX unit play? Welcome to theRX. Keep firing away........

 

[T-CANE]

nice call on 1h gs under

 

[lockcity23]

varkeyboy, so far my highest unit play is 4*, i will sometimes have a 6* if the information I receive is strong and I like the play alot myself.

 

[lockcity23]

First posted 3* Indy -3.5

*Indiana is great at home, they just blew out the 76ers at home and I look
for them to continue winning with their hot offense. Also, they are looking
to revenge their 114-107 loss to the Clippers. Clippers have failed to
cover the spread in their last 3 games and their offense just looks bad as
of late. They are scoring 7 points less than their season average these
last 5 games.*

also got another 2* in NHL
Over 5.5 Goals in NJD vs OTT

there may be other plays, just waiting on more information. stay tuned and GOOD LUCK all

 

[lockcity23]

hockey play should be +120. looking for an easy bounce back 2*

 

[lockcity23]

2 small unit plays on favs
take NY-8.5 1* and Miami-10.5 1*
alot of chalk to cover but lets see what they can do...