JANUARY 31, 2013
It seems so innocent that a game with absolutely, positively, zero meaning could rile up a team as much as what occurred
earlier this year in February (last season). UNC Greensboro hopped on a bus for a short twenty minute ride to play rival Elon,
who had been struggling immensely towards the end of last season. It was a white-out at Elon and it was also Senior Day. Elon
could earn a bye in the conference tournament with a win, so it was a pretty emotional ball game. The ball gets tipped in the
air, all of a sudden Elon has finally found an offensive spark they had been lacking for weeks and they race out to a 21-2 lead.
Wes Miller called it the worst game he had been associated with in his brief coaching career (half a season). Multiple players,
including Junior PG Derrell Armstrong called it an embarrassment to the program. Those reactions are probably pretty normal
for any coach or player who loses to a rival, but this was anything but that. You see, just one night prior to this ball being tipped
into the air, UNC Greensboro had already clinched the North Division of the Southern Conference and a #1 seed in the
conference tournament. This game virtually meant nothing. I was pretty blown away with how upset they were. Any person
with a brain knew the outcome of that game before it even started. So I did what any other normal human being would do. I
found my pen, wrote a few things down, and clipped it to my filing cabinet:
They should be highly motivated tonight. They haven’t had the greatest of seasons, largely due in part to injuries at various
parts of the seasons and a tough non-conference slate but for the most part appear to be healthy at the moment. They have
taken care of business against the North half of the Socon (their division) aside from two defeats where Trevis Simpson either
did not play or got injured. It would also appear that after tallying a combined 71 points in his previous two games, he is back
to full strength.
In terms of spot, as I said, the motivation to take down a rival should be there. This UNC Greensboro team will be playing its
fifth straight home game, while Elon’s on the road for a 2
nd
straight. Being on the road for two straight probably isn’t that big of
deal, considering the trip isn’t too out of the ordinary. What is a big deal is the fact that Elon will be facing a man-to-man
defense for the first time in a while. They’ve faced a zone three of their last four, and some pretty weak zones might I add. The
change-over from what they’re really good at (shooting 3’s against lack of pressure) to trying to find rhythm within the offense
in a man setting should be tough for any team. Elon’s going to bring a sagging man-to-man pack it in the paint type of defense
to the table that they always have. They’re extremely good at protecting the paint as they’re one of the taller teams in the
conference but the pressure they exhibit on the perimeter just isn’t there. Over the course of the past few years, this Elon team
has been at or near the bottom in all of the country in terms of forcing turnovers. They’d rather try to out-score you than
defend you and it has worked in a conference that features a bunch of zone defense. This year, they are forcing a few more
turnovers, but those are coming from inside the paint, as more and more teams within the SoCon are relying on interior scoring
than ever before. In terms of this Elon lack of pressure on the outside, they used Sebastian Koch on (6’8”) on Trevis Simpson in
the 2
nd
meeting last year, and from what I’ve read, it looks like they’re going to try and do a little bit of the same this year.
Obviously the size is a concern, but the speed in terms of keeping up with Simpson is not. Now, Elon’s pretty much owned the series as of late. I’m not a big fan of “well this team has won 7 straight games in the series
so they should hold some value tonight because they have this team’s number.” Maybe in certain instances, that may apply. But
not here. Wes Miller didn’t take over this team until AFTER the first meeting with Elon last season…the game where Elon scored
at will on a zone. He took a Mike Dement zone press and a half-court zone defense (which is the main reason Elon has
controlled the series as of late) and flipped that into a token press that still allows them to push the pace, but they now instead
drop back into a man defense. In games that mattered last year, Miller at the helm led to a 8-3 conference mark…with the
unfortunate ending of the regular season to Elon…again…in an 82 possession game that didn’t mean a single thing; that same
game that was referred to as an embarrassment. Tonight, this game means a little bit more. It’s rival on rival, and it’s a tiny
chance at redemption.
In addition, there’s been some news in recent weeks that certainly helps to make a case for UNC Greensboro. Elon sort of is
without a PG at the present moment. Austin Hamilton tore his ACL two weeks ago and they will be without his services for the
remainder of the season. He’s their leading assist rate guy, and was the only defender on the arc who exhibited any kind of
pressure on the opposing PG (he had a steal percentage ranking 174
th
in the country). They have a decent backup in Josh
Bonney, but his lack of size (5’10”) combined with the fact that Elon is going bigger with Koch to defend Simpson, this team
trots out a lineup tonight without a true ball-handler. They’ve been starting freshman shooting guard Tanner Samson in
Hamilton’s place as of late…key words…shooting guard. This seems like a good spot where token pressure to speed up the pace
of the game makes a bit of sense and causes Elon some issues. In terms of Austin Hamilton’s impact to this Elon squad, they
have now played a total of ten games the last two years without him. In those games, their lone road win came this past
Saturday against a pathetic zone defense of Citadel where they launched 32 three-pointers and made just enough (12) to sneak
out of there with a four point victory. Where do they find the ball-handling they’re going to need tonight? You don’t need a PG
to bring the ball up against a half-court zone defense, but they will certainly need it tonight and it will be one of the first
instances they will have to deal with the loss in a true sense of the game.
In terms of value, Elon was a five point favorite last year in an emotional spot at home in a game that meant nothing to UNC
Greensboro and a game Elon was fully healthy. At the start of the season, I was fully expecting having to lay the -3.5 or -4
here. Of course, coaches have to coach, players have to play. And that little tiny orange bouncy thing needs to find its way in
the hoop more often than not. But, I think this situation sets itself up pretty nicely for those things to happen for me.
It seems so innocent that a game with absolutely, positively, zero meaning could rile up a team as much as what occurred
earlier this year in February (last season). UNC Greensboro hopped on a bus for a short twenty minute ride to play rival Elon,
who had been struggling immensely towards the end of last season. It was a white-out at Elon and it was also Senior Day. Elon
could earn a bye in the conference tournament with a win, so it was a pretty emotional ball game. The ball gets tipped in the
air, all of a sudden Elon has finally found an offensive spark they had been lacking for weeks and they race out to a 21-2 lead.
Wes Miller called it the worst game he had been associated with in his brief coaching career (half a season). Multiple players,
including Junior PG Derrell Armstrong called it an embarrassment to the program. Those reactions are probably pretty normal
for any coach or player who loses to a rival, but this was anything but that. You see, just one night prior to this ball being tipped
into the air, UNC Greensboro had already clinched the North Division of the Southern Conference and a #1 seed in the
conference tournament. This game virtually meant nothing. I was pretty blown away with how upset they were. Any person
with a brain knew the outcome of that game before it even started. So I did what any other normal human being would do. I
found my pen, wrote a few things down, and clipped it to my filing cabinet:
They should be highly motivated tonight. They haven’t had the greatest of seasons, largely due in part to injuries at various
parts of the seasons and a tough non-conference slate but for the most part appear to be healthy at the moment. They have
taken care of business against the North half of the Socon (their division) aside from two defeats where Trevis Simpson either
did not play or got injured. It would also appear that after tallying a combined 71 points in his previous two games, he is back
to full strength.
In terms of spot, as I said, the motivation to take down a rival should be there. This UNC Greensboro team will be playing its
fifth straight home game, while Elon’s on the road for a 2
nd
straight. Being on the road for two straight probably isn’t that big of
deal, considering the trip isn’t too out of the ordinary. What is a big deal is the fact that Elon will be facing a man-to-man
defense for the first time in a while. They’ve faced a zone three of their last four, and some pretty weak zones might I add. The
change-over from what they’re really good at (shooting 3’s against lack of pressure) to trying to find rhythm within the offense
in a man setting should be tough for any team. Elon’s going to bring a sagging man-to-man pack it in the paint type of defense
to the table that they always have. They’re extremely good at protecting the paint as they’re one of the taller teams in the
conference but the pressure they exhibit on the perimeter just isn’t there. Over the course of the past few years, this Elon team
has been at or near the bottom in all of the country in terms of forcing turnovers. They’d rather try to out-score you than
defend you and it has worked in a conference that features a bunch of zone defense. This year, they are forcing a few more
turnovers, but those are coming from inside the paint, as more and more teams within the SoCon are relying on interior scoring
than ever before. In terms of this Elon lack of pressure on the outside, they used Sebastian Koch on (6’8”) on Trevis Simpson in
the 2
nd
meeting last year, and from what I’ve read, it looks like they’re going to try and do a little bit of the same this year.
Obviously the size is a concern, but the speed in terms of keeping up with Simpson is not. Now, Elon’s pretty much owned the series as of late. I’m not a big fan of “well this team has won 7 straight games in the series
so they should hold some value tonight because they have this team’s number.” Maybe in certain instances, that may apply. But
not here. Wes Miller didn’t take over this team until AFTER the first meeting with Elon last season…the game where Elon scored
at will on a zone. He took a Mike Dement zone press and a half-court zone defense (which is the main reason Elon has
controlled the series as of late) and flipped that into a token press that still allows them to push the pace, but they now instead
drop back into a man defense. In games that mattered last year, Miller at the helm led to a 8-3 conference mark…with the
unfortunate ending of the regular season to Elon…again…in an 82 possession game that didn’t mean a single thing; that same
game that was referred to as an embarrassment. Tonight, this game means a little bit more. It’s rival on rival, and it’s a tiny
chance at redemption.
In addition, there’s been some news in recent weeks that certainly helps to make a case for UNC Greensboro. Elon sort of is
without a PG at the present moment. Austin Hamilton tore his ACL two weeks ago and they will be without his services for the
remainder of the season. He’s their leading assist rate guy, and was the only defender on the arc who exhibited any kind of
pressure on the opposing PG (he had a steal percentage ranking 174
th
in the country). They have a decent backup in Josh
Bonney, but his lack of size (5’10”) combined with the fact that Elon is going bigger with Koch to defend Simpson, this team
trots out a lineup tonight without a true ball-handler. They’ve been starting freshman shooting guard Tanner Samson in
Hamilton’s place as of late…key words…shooting guard. This seems like a good spot where token pressure to speed up the pace
of the game makes a bit of sense and causes Elon some issues. In terms of Austin Hamilton’s impact to this Elon squad, they
have now played a total of ten games the last two years without him. In those games, their lone road win came this past
Saturday against a pathetic zone defense of Citadel where they launched 32 three-pointers and made just enough (12) to sneak
out of there with a four point victory. Where do they find the ball-handling they’re going to need tonight? You don’t need a PG
to bring the ball up against a half-court zone defense, but they will certainly need it tonight and it will be one of the first
instances they will have to deal with the loss in a true sense of the game.
In terms of value, Elon was a five point favorite last year in an emotional spot at home in a game that meant nothing to UNC
Greensboro and a game Elon was fully healthy. At the start of the season, I was fully expecting having to lay the -3.5 or -4
here. Of course, coaches have to coach, players have to play. And that little tiny orange bouncy thing needs to find its way in
the hoop more often than not. But, I think this situation sets itself up pretty nicely for those things to happen for me.
