Is this NOT the trap of the century? This line opened at -3 and hasn't budged, even though Colorado is taking in 80$ of the money. EVERYONE and their moms are/will be on Colorado. Nebraska lost to Minnesota and put up a measly 7 points. Meanwhile, Colorado knocked off TCU. I have a hard time believing Vegas is just going to be handing out donations on Saturday. Nebraska was a 7.5 Pt dog @ Minnesota and now they're a 3 point dog at Colorado. There's NO WAY!!!!
Actually, before the start of week 1 (Saturday) the line was Nebraska -7/Colorado +7 at Circa. After Saturday it moved/adjusted to Nebraska +5/Colorado -5. And now down to Nebraska +3/Colorado -3. The line moved a minimum of 12 points in 1 day.
Also, Nebraska will have 2 extra days of rest and in the first game for Colorado they were expected to lose as a 21 point dog. Now they've been moved to the favorite in a early start game where there's more pressure on them to win after defeating TCU. Keep in mind also they played a track meet game in the heat vs TCU.
"Smart money" takes advantage of lines that are off. Could be early, could be in the middle of the week, could be late. But you're kinda right, typically early, especially at Circa and occasionally, but not as often, the Superbook. I use Circa for EARLY wagers typically.
No shit? What are your thoughts? I watched the Nebraska/Minnesota game and Nebraska looked putrid. And, of course, Colorado looked stellar. I read an article about Nebraska and it was talking about how Nebraska barely even has an OL. It said they were basically asking people to "volunteer" to play on the O-Line. It surprises me that they are -7 before week 1
yeah, true. Also, it's a perfect letdown spot coming off a huge upset.
No shit. Nebraska was actually -9 at Circa after their loss to Minnesota but that changed drastically after Colorado defeated TCU. Probably the largest swing I've ever seen in that short of time.
That's crazy! I wonder why it would've gone up AFTER they lost to Minnesota. LOL. They looked like absolute dog shit!
After Colorado defeated TCU the line at Circa was moved to Colorado -5 and VERY quickly went to -3, within minutes. Circa typically sets their line and waits to see where the resistance is after it moves and then other books set their lines accordingly. That's typically what I've seen. Circa will even admit that's what they typically do with their opening lines.
I'm sorry I stated that wrong. It was Nebraska -9 originally at Circa. Moved to Nebraska -7 after their loss and then after Colorado defeated TCU it moved to Nebraska +5 and now has settled around Nebraska +2 1/2, +3.
Here's the Circa line after Colorado defeated TCU. The total also plummeted
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South Point was at Colorado +9 originally (screenshot below).
After both teams played, Circa opened it at Colorado -5 (screenshot above)
After both teams played, Circa opened it at Colorado -5 (screenshot above)
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Books lost their ass with the COL/TCU result. I guess they're trying to not let that happen again giving some value with Nebraska in my opinion
No way Colorado "lets down" after the win, the kids will be jacked up for their first home game after establishing themselves vs TCU. The Colorado fans will be pumped.
Sure it is a shorter week for Colorado but they will be in the altitiude, with which their systems have adjusted, and Nebraska cannot in their short stay.
Nebraska QB Sims (from GT) is not a good passer at all, he is a run first QB, made some big mistakes vs Minny, I think Colorado will be able to deal with him.
I do not think the line is an overreaction, Prime Time brough in 86 new players and it is a totally different team from 2022.
Sure it is a shorter week for Colorado but they will be in the altitiude, with which their systems have adjusted, and Nebraska cannot in their short stay.
Nebraska QB Sims (from GT) is not a good passer at all, he is a run first QB, made some big mistakes vs Minny, I think Colorado will be able to deal with him.
I do not think the line is an overreaction, Prime Time brough in 86 new players and it is a totally different team from 2022.
Agree with a lot of this.
However i will say that Colorado was probably hard to prepare for and scout. It’s all out now. Also they wont sneak up on anyone either now. Plus TCU played a style that suited Colorado. A spread ‘em out athlete for athlete type game. Nebraska will do something totally different.
Colorado is no question better and a totally different team… but I’m still not sure this Colorado team wins more than 4-5 games. TCU was a lucky team last year that lost too much. It wouldn’t shock me if TCU finishes the year at or under 500.
M108K
We'll see. That's why they play the games and we gamble lol. Everyone has opinions. Some right, some wrong.
Agree with all that.
From my friend in Sin City regarding Colorado and their line this week. "It was an adjustment. On lookaheads offered at some books, and in SP's Games of the Year, Colorado was a TD or more 'dog last week. As books began to reopen Saturday afternoon/evening, it was down to Huskers short fave or pick 'em. Then Sunday, jumped fence."
