Nd2000-week 3

nd2000 · Sep 18, 2009

I am also tracking the lines in the following games very closely.

UGA +2 - if this goes to three, i'll be on the Bulldogs. Arkansas is completely untested, while the Bulldogs have already been in two hard fought battles against strong opposition. UGA was only a 4.5 dog to a strong Okie State squad in week one. Getting UGA at +3 against Arkansas would be a steal IMO.

Oregon State +1 - I may pull the trigger here. Still undecided. Here is the secret of Cincinnati: they have a coach that is 10x better than any other coach in the Big East. That makes them look a lot better than they really are when they face conference foes. Bill Stewart, Dave Wannstedt, Jim Leavitt, Kragthorpe are all morons compared to Brian Kelly. However, when Cincinnati ran into a mediocre team with a very good coach in Frank Beamer last year, Virginia Tech manhandled them. That was very telling for me. Oregon State head coach Riley is excellent and Reser Stadium is a tough place to play in.

Nebraska +5 - Would take this at +6 or higher. I love Nebraska's play in the trenches and the last time VT faced a team with monsters up front (Bama), they were severely outgained and looked overmatched. Huskers capable of winning straight up.

jimmyshivers · Sep 18, 2009

nd2000 said:
Was on the fence about this play earlier, but line movement and the U's play tonight closed the deal:

Florida State+8 over BYU

Watching the U dismantle GT tonight was quite impressive. Miami, FL is for real. Now, i do realize that GT is overrated, as i explained in my Clemson pick last week, but still, you can tell that Miami is a strong team. Florida State went toe to toe with them in week one. I would basically throw out that performance last week vs. Jacksonville State. There was zero motivation there after the painful loss to the U in week one. I really like the overall speed of FSU, and i'm not sold on BYU being a legit top 10 team just yet. After all, they were 22 point underdogs to OU in week one, so i have a feeling that Vegas oddsmakers are not completely in love with their personnel. Would FSU been that big of a dog to OU in week one?? I kinda doubt it, probably more like +17. Think there is a lot of line value here on Florida State as people have suddenly fallen in love with BYU and driven the line a full 7 points higher than the preseason line of BYU -1 for this game.

Personally think you are all over this game right here. BOL to us with the points, this FSU Offense can keep up imo. FSU has much stronger O-line than OU and will give Bradford time all day. To me its closer to a 3 point line so the extra points are a nice gift. BOL

russ1945 · Sep 18, 2009

nd2000 said:
Notre Dame -10 over Michigan State

I have a feeling that good old Sparty might be much weaker this year than most anticipated. Last week's loss at home vs. CMU was quite an eye opener. Not only did they lose the game, they were outgained by over 100 yards to a team that was just coming off a beatdown at the hands of a mid level pac-10 in Arizona. Both Floyd and Armando Allen are expected to play. Notre Dame's defense is highly suspect, but against a traditional type offense like Michigan State, they will fair much better, especially since Sparty doesn't have many playmakers to hurt them.

Sidebar - I think you are vastly underestimating Arizona as a mid level pac-10 team. I think the season will bear this out. In my opinion the CM win over Mich St makes the Arizona win look better. If Arizona can put some points on the board they can play with just about anybody. Their defense is the real deal.

nd2000 · Sep 18, 2009

russ1945 said:
Sidebar - I think you are vastly underestimating Arizona as a mid level pac-10 team. I think the season will bear this out. In my opinion the CM win over Mich St makes the Arizona win look better. If Arizona can put some points on the board they can play with just about anybody. Their defense is the real deal.

Possibly i am. We'll see how they look at Iowa tomorrow. That should be a real good test of how good they really are. I still think Michigan State is overmatched in this game though against Notre Dame. The ND defense has listened all week to how bad they are. They'll come to play a big game here against Sparty and ND has a huge edge on offense obviously.

russ1945 · Sep 18, 2009

nd2000 said:
Possibly i am. We'll see how they look at Iowa tomorrow. That should be a real good test of how good they really are. I still think Michigan State is overmatched in this game though against Notre Dame. The ND defense has listened all week to how bad they are. They'll come to play a big game here against Sparty and ND has a huge edge on offense obviously.

Yes, Arizona will miss their AA TE but points may be at a premium for either team tomorrow. I like ND also, they should try to make a statement against Mich St tomorrow. BOL

FairWarning · Sep 18, 2009

nd2000 said:
Possibly i am. We'll see how they look at Iowa tomorrow. That should be a real good test of how good they really are. I still think Michigan State is overmatched in this game though against Notre Dame. The ND defense has listened all week to how bad they are. They'll come to play a big game here against Sparty and ND has a huge edge on offense obviously.

Every year Mich St and ND play, MSU kicks ND's ass on the lines. Weis' passing in obvious running situations last week reinforces how little confidence he has in the running game. He will make them one-dimensional, and MSU can stop that.