BHG-
Great game to discuss, I will give you a few of my points and should hopefully clear things up.
A)Believe it or not, Florida is still riding the hype of the Miami game in which they LOST and should have easily won. Public thinks they can "hang" with anyone now. Let's assume they can.
B)Florida comes into this game 2-0 ATS, and Tennessee comes in 0-2 ATS, unable to cover two games at home vs Fresno St and Marshall.
C)Florida offense averaging a whopping 53.7 pts/game and Tennessee only 29. The defenses are about equal, both allowing about 15 pts/game. The defensive numbers are however a little deceiving because the Tenn run D is outstanding.
D)Florida beat Tennessee last year on the road 30-13.
E)The line crossed the opening 2.5, to 3, and now 3.5. I believe I may have even seen a 4 somewhere.
I hope you get my point. Everything is pointing to Florida, Florida, Florida, yet they are only favored by a FG? This is a Tennessee spot I absolutely love. In my world of sports gambling, rarely do you find a match-up like this to bet on with everything going one direction. If linesmakers were confident with Florida covering this game, they would not be scared to throw up a -7 line, and Joe Public would react no different than it has to this line.
The Vols will get it done on Saturday, should be a great game.
Great game to discuss, I will give you a few of my points and should hopefully clear things up.
A)Believe it or not, Florida is still riding the hype of the Miami game in which they LOST and should have easily won. Public thinks they can "hang" with anyone now. Let's assume they can.
B)Florida comes into this game 2-0 ATS, and Tennessee comes in 0-2 ATS, unable to cover two games at home vs Fresno St and Marshall.
C)Florida offense averaging a whopping 53.7 pts/game and Tennessee only 29. The defenses are about equal, both allowing about 15 pts/game. The defensive numbers are however a little deceiving because the Tenn run D is outstanding.
D)Florida beat Tennessee last year on the road 30-13.
E)The line crossed the opening 2.5, to 3, and now 3.5. I believe I may have even seen a 4 somewhere.
I hope you get my point. Everything is pointing to Florida, Florida, Florida, yet they are only favored by a FG? This is a Tennessee spot I absolutely love. In my world of sports gambling, rarely do you find a match-up like this to bet on with everything going one direction. If linesmakers were confident with Florida covering this game, they would not be scared to throw up a -7 line, and Joe Public would react no different than it has to this line.
The Vols will get it done on Saturday, should be a great game.
NASDAQ...would like to get in touch with you..please drop me a line at vfrtx@yahoo.com...Thanks...
I do not preset numbers, but I have a set strategy on my totals plays that I try use each week. Would not like to release too much info regarding my capping on totals, but here is a brief example that may help.
When a line is over 60+, lets say, I am only looking to play the game OVER or I pass. So I look at every game that is 60+ and see which games I think have the capability of going over that number. If both teams fired it up the week before, then will probably lay off, it's when the teams looked poor and my contrarion views kick in that I am more likely to play the over. A little more complicatiing than this, but that is the general view.
Also have to keep an eye on teams that are considered "over" teams and "under" teams. If an "over" team is playing another "over" team, line is naturally going to be inflated. Under has value in these games.
Last thing to look at, one area that I would say less than 1% of cappers know about it, is the position in rotation. Meaning the chronological order of the play on the card for that week. Quick example...First game on the card is typically an Under game:
Week 1- Ark State/Texas A&M UNDER
Week 2- Boston College/Penn State UNDER
Week 3- Louisville/Syracuse UNDER
Week 4- Miami/Boston College ???
Hope that helps.
When a line is over 60+, lets say, I am only looking to play the game OVER or I pass. So I look at every game that is 60+ and see which games I think have the capability of going over that number. If both teams fired it up the week before, then will probably lay off, it's when the teams looked poor and my contrarion views kick in that I am more likely to play the over. A little more complicatiing than this, but that is the general view.
Also have to keep an eye on teams that are considered "over" teams and "under" teams. If an "over" team is playing another "over" team, line is naturally going to be inflated. Under has value in these games.
Last thing to look at, one area that I would say less than 1% of cappers know about it, is the position in rotation. Meaning the chronological order of the play on the card for that week. Quick example...First game on the card is typically an Under game:
Week 1- Ark State/Texas A&M UNDER
Week 2- Boston College/Penn State UNDER
Week 3- Louisville/Syracuse UNDER
Week 4- Miami/Boston College ???
Hope that helps.
I like your attitude on the backdoor defeat. You know you were on the right side, upsets will occur. We've all been beaten by a bad beat but if you know you made a good choice ahead of time that's ok.
If we could pick 60% we could retire and cap for a living. That's being wrong 40% of the time. No problemo.
If we could pick 60% we could retire and cap for a living. That's being wrong 40% of the time. No problemo.
also Washington....I was liking them...but I also had them -26 over Indy.....and they won by 25....
Not sure I can stomach taking WVU....but love to hear what you have to say about them...can always root them on and watch...
are you betting all those totals?
with you tonight on the under...
gl
bl
Not sure I can stomach taking WVU....but love to hear what you have to say about them...can always root them on and watch...
are you betting all those totals?
with you tonight on the under...
gl
bl
bornloser-
I will try to address each of your questions.
Cal-
I agree their QB looked very good vs Utah and with a game under his belt, I look for him to be better this week. These two teams are evenly matched for the most part, I just like Tedford on the road in this one. Cal has won 4 of their last 5 as dogs, with the one loss by 1.5 pts. Also like to see Cal has lost their last two games ATS.
N. Texas-
No real position on this game. Would obviously lean to NT with Arkansas pulling the upset against my boys last week. Problem is, Arkansas is at home, playing a weaker offensive team, and a weaker defensive team. The play is NT or pass.
Syracuse-
These teams look too equal to me, could go either way. See lots of UCF support and few on the Cuse. An easy pass for me.
WVU-
Just a gut feeling on this one, don't have much to say about it.
NC State-
Did a write-up on why I like Tech. Luckily I got +7 early, but I would still consider Tech at 6.5.
Washington-
Falls in to one of my strongest systems this week. In fact the only team to qualify under this system of mine. I think they run and gun all over Idaho.
And, yes I am betting all the totals I posted. Good luck with the Under tonight, should be a good game to watch.
I will try to address each of your questions.
Cal-
I agree their QB looked very good vs Utah and with a game under his belt, I look for him to be better this week. These two teams are evenly matched for the most part, I just like Tedford on the road in this one. Cal has won 4 of their last 5 as dogs, with the one loss by 1.5 pts. Also like to see Cal has lost their last two games ATS.
N. Texas-
No real position on this game. Would obviously lean to NT with Arkansas pulling the upset against my boys last week. Problem is, Arkansas is at home, playing a weaker offensive team, and a weaker defensive team. The play is NT or pass.
Syracuse-
These teams look too equal to me, could go either way. See lots of UCF support and few on the Cuse. An easy pass for me.
WVU-
Just a gut feeling on this one, don't have much to say about it.
NC State-
Did a write-up on why I like Tech. Luckily I got +7 early, but I would still consider Tech at 6.5.
Washington-
Falls in to one of my strongest systems this week. In fact the only team to qualify under this system of mine. I think they run and gun all over Idaho.
And, yes I am betting all the totals I posted. Good luck with the Under tonight, should be a good game to watch.
