NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

[Udog]

MONTANA ST is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the current season.

SETON HALL is 19-8 Under (10.2 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game after 15+ games in the las...

SMU is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the last 3 seasons.

BRADLEY is 7-0 Under (7 Units) in home games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 ...

IUPU-FT WAYNE is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds in the current season.

PRINCETON is 43-22 ATS (18.8 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.

WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

AUSTIN PEAY is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds in the current season...

CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

VA COMMONWEALTH is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

BOISE ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game in the current season.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, March 20

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 20

 

[Udog]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Leading rebounders in the NBA:
13.7/game— Domantas Sabonis, Sac
12.9— Rudy Gobert, Minn
12.3— Anthony Davis, Lakers
12.3— Nikola Jokic, Den
11.9— Jalen Duren, Det
11.2— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
Quote of the Day
“I like recruiting transfers; their cars are already paid for.”
The late Jerry Tarkanian, who coached UNLV to national prominence in the 70’s/80’s
Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, what did Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) do in his first at-bat with the Bulls?
Tuesday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy has led three teams to a World Series; Texas, San Francisco and San Diego. He’s won four World Series, three of them with the Giants.
Monday’s quiz
In the movie Oceans Eleven, Julia Roberts played George Clooney’s wife.

********************************************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

NCAA play-in games:
— Wagner 71, Howard 68
Wagner jumped out to a 21-10 lead, led 38-27 at halftime.
Seahawks advance to lose to North Carolina in their next game.
Wagner is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 21 to Seton Hall, by 34 to Providence.

— Colorado State 67, Virginia 42
Cavaliers shot 25% from floor, an ugly performance.
This is 7th time this season Virginia lost by 20+ points.
Rams shot 63.6% inside arc, led 27-14 at halftime.
Part of me thinks the four play-in games should be the last eight at-large teams; teams that win their conference tournament should get to play on Thursday/Friday, giving them a couple more days to enjoy the experience.
Another part of me thinks that the national TV exposure they get during the play-in games has to help their recruiting, so that is good, too.

NIT games:
— Ohio State 88, Cornell 83
Cornell was up 10 early, led 81-79 with 1:04 left.
Buckeyes were 13-22 on foul line, Cornell 5-6.

— Minnesota 73, Butler 72
Golden Gophers shot 57.1% inside the arc.
Butler led 70-67 with 1:24 left.

— South Florida 83, Central Florida 77
USF shot 13-24 on arc, led 49-35 at halftime.
Bulls have won 23 of their last 26 games.

— Boston College 62, Providence 57
Eagles have won five of their last six games.
Three guys on Providence played 39 or 40 minutes.

— Georgia 78, Xavier 76
Dawgs led 65-42 with 13:25 left, then held on for dear life.
Georgia’s bench outscored Xavier’s, 35-7.

— Word of the Day: Transition- a change from one state or condition to another.

— Famous birthdays for March 20:
Pat Riley, 79
Rick Langford, 72
Steve McCatty, 70
Amy Aquino, 67
Kathy Ireland, 61
Mookie Blaylock, 57

— Abilene Christian 73, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 63
Wildcats have won eight of their last 10 games.
Corpus Christi shot 2-24 on arc, 19-30 on foul line.

— Tarleton State 82, Texas Southern 71
Tarleton State put five players in double figures.
Texans have won 12 of their last 14 games.

— North Texas 84, LSU 77
Mean Green had lost 66-62 to LSU back in November.
North Texas shot 11-26 on the arc.

— Iowa 91, Kansas State 82
Payton Sandfort made 7-11 shots on the arc.
Iowa was 22-30 on foul line, K-State 8-16.

— Virginia Tech 74, Richmond 58
Spiders led 22-13 early on, then it went south on them.
Hokies have won four of their last five games.

— Utah 84, Cal-Irvine 75
Utes start four seniors; PG Smith had 13 points, 10 assists.
Utah hosts Iowa in its next game, Sunday.

— Kansas star Kevin McCullar is out of the NCAA Tournament with a bone bruise in his knee.

— Note of the Day: The last 36 NCAA Tournament teams that were seeded #1 or #2, who were unranked in the preseason top 25? None of those 36 teams made the Final Four. Iowa State falls into that category this year.

 

[Udog]

DUQUESNE is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

AKRON is 11-4 ATS (6.6 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in the current season.

LONG BEACH ST is 14-5 Over (8.5 Units) in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

ILLINOIS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons.

S CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

KENTUCKY is 8-0 Over (8 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots in the current season.

GONZAGA is 81-52 Over (23.8 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games since 1997.

IOWA ST is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after playing a game as an underdog in the current season.

ST PETERS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less in the current season.

TEXAS TECH is 11-0 Over (11 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

SAMFORD is 103-65 Over (31.5 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive conference games since 1997.

WASHINGTON ST is 7-0 Under (7 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 21

Thursday’s games
Day Games
Michigan State (-1.5) vs Mississippi State (@ Charlotte)
Michigan State (19-14) ranked #18 by KenPom
Tempo: #305
Experience: #61
Continuity: #14
MSU lost five of its last seven games.
Spartans are 8-3 in non-conference games.
Spartans have #58 eFG% defense in country.
MSU is 4-10 against top 50 teams.
MSU is 2-10 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Michigan State’s schedule, to this point: #12
bench minutes: #165
Michigan State won five of last six first round games.


Mississippi State (21-13) ranked #30 by KenPom
Tempo: #202
Experience: #54
Continuity: #28
Miss State lost five of its last seven games.
Bulldogs are turning ball over 18.7% of time (#290)
Bulldogs are #21 team in country on the offensive boards.
Miss State is 4-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Miss State is 11-2 in non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 5-10 vs top 50 teams.
Miss State’s schedule, to this point: #22
bench minutes: #114
Coach Jans is in NCAA’s for 5th time in last six years.


This year, SEC teams are 9-4 SU/ATS vs Big 14 opponents.
Favorites were 11-2 ATS in those games.


Duquesne vs BYU (-9.5) (@ Omaha)
Duquesne (24-11) ranked #86 by KenPom
Tempo: #291
Experience: #47
Continuity: #94
Duquesne won its last eight games.
Dukes are 8-3 in D-I non-conference games.
Dukes have #60 eFG% defense in country.
Duquesne is 1-3 against top 50 teams.
Duquesne is 8-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Duquesne’s schedule, to this point: #97
bench minutes: #83
Duquesne is in NCAA’s for first time since 1977.
Last four years, A-15 teams are 1-4 SU/ATS in NCAA’s.
Coach Dambrot is retiring after this season.


BYU (23-10) ranked #16 by KenPom
Tempo: #85
Experience: #132
Continuity: #29
BYU is 5-4 in its last nine games.
Cougars are 12-1 in non-conference games.
BYU is shooting 58% inside the arc (#8)
Cougars are #24 team on defensive boards.
BYU is 5-4 in games decided by 8 or less points.
Cougars are 11-9 vs top 100 teams.
BYU’s schedule, to this point: #52
bench minutes: #117
BYU is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in eight years; their last NCAA win, 2011.


This year, A-15 teams are 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS vs Big X opponents.
Last eight years, underdogs are 18-14 ATS in #6-11 seed games.


Akron vs Creighton (-12.5) (@ Pittsburgh)
Akron (24-10) ranked #116 by KenPom
Tempo: #268
Experience: #22
Continuity: #70
Akron won MAC tourney (3-5 in last 8 regular season games)
Zips are 6-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Akron is shooting 54.8% inside arc (#31)
Zips are 1-4 against top 100 teams.
Akron is 10-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Akron’s schedule, to this point: #219
bench minutes: #167
Akron is in NCAA’s for 2nd time in three years.
Over last 25 years, Zips are 0-4 in NCAA games.
Last seven years, MAC teams are 3-4 SU/6-1 ATS in first round games.


Creighton (23-9) ranked #11 by KenPom
Tempo: #207
Experience: #8
Continuity: #40
Creighton won seven of its last nine games.
Bluejays are 9-2 in non-conference games.
Creighton has #3 eFG% in the country.
Bluejays beat MAC’s Central Michigan 109-64 in December.
Creighton forces fewest turnovers in the country.
Duquesne’s schedule, to this point: #23
bench minutes: #355
Under McDermott, Creighton is 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS in first round games..


Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.
This year, Big East teams are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.


Long Beach State vs Arizona (-19.5) (@ Salt Lake City)
Long Beach State (21-14) ranked #163 by KenPom
Tempo: #29
Experience: #68
Continuity: #7
Long Beach fired its coach March 11, after an 0-5 skid.
Long Beach then won Big West tourney, with same coach.
Long Beach is 6-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Long Beach is 2-3 against top 100 teams.
Long Beach won in OT USC of Pac-12 December 10.
Long Beach’s schedule, to this point: #182
bench minutes: #279
Long Beach is in NCAA’s for first time since 2012.
Last 8 years, Big West teams are 2-6 SU/5-3 ATS in first round games.


Arizona (25-8) ranked #6 by KenPom
Tempo: #16
Experience: #84
Continuity: #211
Arizona lost 2 of its last 3 games, after a 10-1 run.
Wildcats are 9-2 in non-league games.
Arizona has #26 eFG% in country.
Wildcats are a top 5 rebounding team in country.
Arizona is 9-2 against teams outside the top 100.
Arizona’s schedule, to this point: #26
bench minutes: #280
LY, Arizona got upset in first round, also as a #2-seed.
Last 7 first round games, Wildcats are 4-3 SU/0-6-1 ATS


TY, Pac-12 teams are 8-7 ATS vs Big West opponents.
Last seven years, #2-seeds are 15-12-1 ATS in first round.


Morehead State vs Illinois (-12.5) (@
Morehead State (26-8) ranked #111 by KenPom
Tempo: #335
Experience: #163
Continuity: #247
Morehead won its last six games.
Eagles are 5-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Eagles have #9 eFG% defense in country.
Eagles have #35 eFG% in country.
Morehead is 0-4 vs top 100 teams (3 losses by 23+).
Morehead is 1-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #319
bench minutes: #348
Last 18 years, OVC teams are 13-5-1 ATS in first round games.


Illinois (25-8) ranked #10 by KenPom
Tempo: #56
Experience: #10
Continuity: #140
Illinois won four in row, seven of last eight games.
Illini is 10-2 in non-league games.
Illinois beat two OVC teams TY, by 28-32 points.
Illini has #48 eFG%, #55 eFG% defense in country.
Illinois is 12-0 against teams outside the top 100.
Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #24
bench minutes: #240
Underwood is 4-3 SU/ATS in first round games.
Illinois is 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS in last ten first round games.


Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.
Big 14 teams are 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS vs OVC teams this season.


Oregon vs South Carolina (-1.5) (@ Pittsburgh)
Oregon (23-11) ranked #55 by KenPom
Tempo: #197
Experience: #169
Continuity: #258
Oregon won its last four games, giving up 64.5 ppg.
Ducks are 8-3 in non-league games.
Ducks won Pac-12 tourney, or else they wouldn’t be here.
Oregon lost to Alabama of SEC 88-81 in November.
Oregon is 3-7 against teams in the top 50.
Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #67
bench minutes: #138
Under Altman, Oregon is 7-0 in first round games.


South Carolina (26-7) ranked #49 by KenPom
Tempo: #354
Experience: #26
Continuity: #176
Carolina is 5-4 in last nine games, after a 21-3 start.
Carolina is 12-1 in non-conference games (NC schedule #337).
Opponents are shooting 46.8% inside arc (#44)
Gamecocks are #56 team on offensive boards.
Carolina is 11-7 against teams in the top 100.
Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #81
bench minutes: #112
This is South Carolina’s 2nd NCAA bid since 2004.
Gamecocks made Final Four as a #7-seed, in 2017.


SEC teams are 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents this season.
Last eight years, underdogs are 18-14 ATS in #6-11 seed games.


Nevada (-1.5) vs Dayton (@ Salt Lake City)
Nevada (26-7) ranked #36 by KenPom
Tempo: #233
Experience: #7
Continuity: #41
Nevada won seven of its last eight games.
Wolf Pack is 12-1 in D-I non-league games.
Nevada has #56 eFG%, #62 eFG% defense.
Wolf Pack gets 23.8% of points on foul line (#11)
Nevada is 6-5 against teams in the top 50.
Nevada’s schedule, to this point: #89
bench minutes: #288
In his career, coach Alford is 7-5 in first round games.


Dayton (24-7) ranked #32 by KenPom
Tempo: #337
Experience: #73
Continuity: #189
Dayton split its last six games, after a 21-4 start.
Flyers were held under 75 points in their last five losses.
Dayton is 10-2 in non-conference games.
Flyers are shooting 40.2% on arc (#3)
Dayton is 9-7 against teams in the top 100.
Dayton’s schedule, to this point: #88
bench minutes: #345
Dayton is in NCAA’s for first time since 2017.
Coach Grant was 1-2 in first round games, at VCU/Alabama.


Atlantic 15/Mountain West split four games SU/ATS this year.


Night Games
Oakland vs Kentucky (-13.5) (@ Pittsburgh)
Oakland (23-11) ranked #137 by KenPom
Tempo: #232
Experience: #107
Continuity: #110
Oakland is 17-3 in its last 20 games, after a 6-8 start.
Grizzlies are 11-3 in games decided by 7 or less points, or in OT
Oakland is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Grizzlies have #93 eFG% in country.
Oakland is 0-4 against teams in top 50, losing by 6-11-17-24 points.
Oakland’s schedule, to this point: #198
bench minutes: #218
Oakland is in NCAA’s for first time since 2011.
Last 11 years, Horizon teams are 4-7 ATS in first round.


Kentucky (23-9) ranked #19 by KenPom
Tempo: #11
Experience: #197
Continuity: #317
Kentucky won seven of its last nine games.
Wildcats scored 85+ points in last six games.
Kentucky is shooting 41.2% on arc (#1)
Wildcats are 10-2 in non-conference games.
Kentucky is 13-1 against teams outside the top 100.
Kentucky’s schedule, to this point: #66
bench minutes: #87
Under Calipari, Kentucky is 10-1 SU/5-6 ATS in first round.
Coach Calipari was born/raised in Pittsburgh area.


Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.


McNeese State vs Gonzaga (-6.5) (@ Salt Lake City)
McNeese State (30-3) ranked #60 by KenPom
Tempo: #282
Experience: #103
Continuity: #324
McNeese won its last eleven games.
This is Cowboys’ first winning year since 2012.
McNeese is 7-2 in non-conference games.
Cowboys have wins at UAB, VCU, Michigan.
McNeese is 7-2 against teams in the top 200.
McNeese’s schedule, to this point: #336
bench minutes: #273
McNeese hasn’t been in NCAA’s since 2002.
Since 2014, Southland teams are 5-2 ATS in this round.


Gonzaga (30-8) ranked #15 by KenPom
Tempo: #83
Experience: #131
Continuity: #219
Gonzaga won nine of its last ten games.
Zags are 9-4 in D-I non-conference games.
Gonzaga is shooting 58.3% inside arc (#7)
Opponents are shooting 45.1% inside arc (#13)
Gonzaga is 9-6 against teams in the top 100.
Gonzaga’s schedule, to this point: #66
bench minutes: #87
Since 2003, Gonzaga is 18-2 SU/9-11 ATS in first round games.
Last time Zags lost a first round game: 2008, to Steph Curry/Davidson.


Last three years, favorites are 8-4 ATS in #5-12 seed first round games.


South Dakota State vs Iowa State (-16.5) (@ Omaha)
South Dakota State (22-12) ranked #134 by KenPom
Tempo: #148
Experience: #120
Continuity: #74
SD State won its last eight games, after a 14-12 start.
Jackrabbits are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
SD State have #19 eFG% in country.
Jackrabbits are 4-8 in D-I non-conference games.
In November, Jackrabbits (+9) lost 91-68 at K-State of Big 12
SD State is 0-3 against teams in top 100, losing by 23-3-2 points.
SD State’s schedule, to this point: #235
bench minutes: #309
Last seven years, Summit teams are 4-2-1 ATS in first round games.


Iowa State (27-7) ranked #5 by KenPom
Tempo: #179
Experience: #123
Continuity: #200
Iowa State won 11 of its last 13 games.
Cyclones are 11-2 in non-conference games.
Cyclones are forcing turnovers 25.7% of time (#2)
Iowa State has #28 eFG% defense in country.
Iowa State is 11-0 against teams outside the top 100.
Iowa State’s schedule, to this point: #37
bench minutes: #232
Since 2012, Iowa State is 6-3 SU/ATS in first round games.


Otzelberger was South Dakota State’s coach from 2017-19.
Big X teams are 10-0 SU/4-6 ATS vs Summit teams this year.
Last seven years, #2-seeds are 15-12-1 ATS in first round.


Saint Peter’s vs Tennessee (-19.5) (@ Charlotte)
Saint Peter’s (19-13) ranked #187 by KenPom
Tempo: #338
Experience: #316
Continuity: #166
Saint Peter’s won eight of last ten games.
Peacocks are 4-5 in non-conference games.
Peacocks lost by 11-9, in their two games vs top 100 foes.
Saint Peter’s has #349 eFG% in country
Saint Peter’s has #22 eFG% defense in country
Saint Peter’s schedule, to this point: #290
bench minutes: #56
Last four years, MAAC teams are 3-1 ATS in first round games.
Peacocks made Elite 8 two years ago; coach/players are all gone.


Tennessee (24-8) ranked #7 by KenPom
Tempo: #79
Experience: #29
Continuity: #67
Tennessee lost its last two games, giving up 73-85 points.
Vols have #7 eFG% defense in country.
Vols are 10-3 in non-conference games.
Tennessee is 9-0 against teams outside the top 100.
Tennessee’s schedule, to this point: #8
bench minutes: #290
Coach Barnes is 8-18-1 ATS in first round NCAA games.
Coach Barnes grew up in Hickory, NC; 60 miles from Charlotte.


Last seven years, #2-seeds are 15-12-1 ATS in first round.


NC State vs Texas Tech (-5.5) (@ Pittsburgh)
NC State (22-14) ranked #58 by KenPom
Tempo: #137
Experience: #15
Continuity: #243
NC State won 5 games in 5 days LW, to win ACC title
Wolfpack went 4-10 in last 14 regular season games.
NC State is 10-6 in games decided by 7 or less points, or in OT
Wolfpack is 8-3 in non-conference games.
NC State is 4-8 against teams in the top 50.
NC State’s schedule, to this point: #58
bench minutes: #265
Under Keatts, NC State is 0-2 in NCAA Tourney games.
Wolfpack hasn’t won an NCAA Tourney game since 2015.


Texas Tech (23-10) ranked #24 by KenPom
Tempo: #234
Experience: #88
Continuity: #286
Tech won four of its last five games.
Red Raiders are shooting 36.5% on arc (#38).
Red Raiders are 11-2 in non-conference games (NC sked #262).
Tech is 9-10 against teams in the top 100.
Texas Tech’s schedule, to this point: #31
bench minutes: #294
Texas Tech won its last four first round games.


ACC teams are 9-3 SU/ATS vs Big X teams this season.
Last eight years, underdogs are 18-14 ATS in #6-11 seed games.


Samford vs Kansas (-7.5) (@ Salt Lake City)
Samford (29-5) ranked #81 by KenPom
Tempo: #14
Experience: #104
Continuity: #168
Samford won six of its last seven games.
Bulldogs have #7 eFG% in country.
Samford is 11-2 in non-conference games (NC sked #330).
Bulldogs lost by 53 at Purdue, 10 at VCU.
Samford is forcing turnovers 21.8% of time (#16)
Samford’s schedule, to this point: #247
bench minutes: #3
Samford is in NCAA’s for first time since 2000.
Last five years, SoCon teams are 4-1 ATS in first round games.


Kansas (22-10) ranked #22 by KenPom
Tempo: #92
Experience: #21
Continuity: #134
Kansas lost four of its last five games.
Jayhawks’ two best players sat out Big X Tournament.
Kansas star McKullar is out for this game.
Jayhawks are 12-1 in non-conference games (NC sked #64).
Kansas is 13-9 against teams in the top 100.
Kansas’ schedule, to this point: #5
bench minutes: #318
Kansas won its last 16 first round games.
This is lowest seed they’ve been since 2019.


Last five years, #4-seeds are 6-14 ATS in first round.
14 of the last 15 years, a #4-seed lost in the first round.


Drake vs Washington State (-1.5) (@ Omaha)
Drake (28-6) ranked #51 by KenPom
Tempo: #150
Experience: #142
Continuity: #148
Drake won five in row, 10 of last 11 games.
Bulldogs are 9-2 in non-conference games (NC sked #243).
Drake is #1 team in country on defensive boards.
Bulldogs are 6-1 against teams in the top 100.
Drake’s schedule, to this point: #120
bench minutes: #247
Last four years, MVC teams are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in first round games.
Drake is in NCAA’s for 3rd time in four years (0-2 other two games)


Washington State (24-9) ranked #42 by KenPom
Tempo: #316
Experience: #295
Continuity: #307
Wazzu split its last six games, after a 21-6 start.
Coogs have #35 eFG% defense in country.
Coogs are 9-2 in non-conference games (NC sked #317).
Wazzu is shooting 52.6% inside arc (#87)
Wazzu is 9-6 against teams in the top 100.
Wazzu’s schedule, to this point: #31
bench minutes: #294
Wazzu is in NCAA’s for first time since 2008 (Tony Bennett was coach)


MVC/Pac-12 teams split their two meetings this season.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 21

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 21

 

[CNOTES]

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
GRAM at MTST	06:40 PM	MTST -4.5 U 134.0	+500 +500
STJOE at HALL	07:00 PM	HALL -8.0 U 147.5	+500 +500
PFW at BGSU	07:00 PM	PFW +1.0 O 149.5	+500 +500
L-IL at BRAD	07:00 PM	L-IL +4.5 U 140.0	+500 +500
SMU at INST	07:00 PM	INST -8.0 O 160.0	+500 +500
ACU at TST	07:00 PM	TST -5.5 U 147.0	+500 +500
UNLV at PRIN	08:00 PM	UNLV +3.5 U 141.0	+500 +500
AAMU at PEAY	08:00 PM	AAMU +11.5 U 144.5	+500 +500
APP at WAKE	08:00 PM	APP +8.0 O 147.5	+500 +500
VCU at VILL	09:00 PM	VCU +8.5 U 133.0	+500 +500
SF at CIN	09:00 PM	SF +7.5 U 143.5	+500 +500
COLO at BSU	09:10 PM	COLO -3.0 O 142.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

BEST BETS GOES.... 9 - 5.....64.28%........+ 17.50

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
03/20/2024	15-9-0	62.50%	+2550	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Some 2nd round NIT matchups:
— Minnesota @ Indiana State
— North Texas @ Seton Hall
— Georgia @ Wake Forest
— VCU @ South Florida
— Virginia Tech @ Ohio State
— Iowa @ Utah

Quote of the Day
“We haven’t had any discussion and I think at this point, for Pete, it’s best for him to go and have a great year and not be distracted.”
Mets owner Steve Cohen, talking about 1B Pete Alonso, who is a free agent next winter

Thursday’s quiz
Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, how many times has a #15-seed beaten a #2-seed in the first round?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) struck out in his first at-bat with the Bulls.

Tuesday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy has led three teams to a World Series; Texas, San Francisco and San Diego. He’s won four World Series, three of them with the Giants.

***********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Happy March Madness, everyone…….​

NCAA play-in games:
— Grambling 88, Montana State 81 OT
Montana State led 55-39 with 14:04 left to play.
Grambling had 13 offensive boards, out-rebounded the Bobcats 41-27.
Grambling advances to play Purdue Friday.

— Colorado 60, Boise State 53
Teams combined to shoot 6-33 on the arc.
Buffs have won nine of their last ten games.
Colorado advances to play Florida Friday.

NIT games:
— UNLV 84, Princeton 77
Rebels shot 67.6% inside the arc.
UNLV was 14-19 on foul line, Princeton 3-6.
Rebels have won 11 of their last 14 games.

— Wake Forest 87, Appalachian State 76
Deacons were 25-31 on foul line, App State 7-8.
App State shot 60% inside arc, 7-27 on the arc.

— Indiana State 101, SMU 92
SMU led 57-42 early in second half.
Sycamores scored 1.36 points/possession- they were 30-35 on foul line.

— Bradley 74, Loyola, Chi 62
Bradley jumped out to 22-6 lead, never trailed.
Braves shot 58.3% inside the arc.

— Fort Wayne 77, Bowling Green 75
Mastodons blew 49-35 second half lead, but they survive/advance.
Bowling Green shot 60.5% inside arc, 5-20 on the arc.

— Seton Hall 75, St Joe’s 72 OT
St Joe’s led by 3 with 0:41 left in regulation.
Seven players in this game played 40:00+.

— Tarleton State 86, Abilene Christian 59
These teams won their first round games Tuesday, played again Wednesday.
Tarleton State shot 61% inside the arc.
Cowboys have won 13 of their last 15 games.

— VCU 70, Villanova 61
Senior G Basimile came off bench, scored 17 points.
Villanova was 6-23 on arc; they lost four of last five games.

— Cincinnati 73, San Francisco 72 OT
Simas Lukosius made 8-10 shots on the arc.
Bearcats won four of their last five games.

— The last two SEC teams that made the Final Four were #5-seed Auburn in 2019, #7-seed South Carolina in 2017. Last three NCAA tournaments, nine SEC teams were seeded #1-4; none of them made the Final Four.

— Arizona has been a #1 or #2-seed 15 times; they made the Final Four in only three of those 15 tournaments.

— Famous birthdays for March 21:
Tom Flores, 87
Manny Sanguillen, 80
Mike Dunleavy, 70
Matthew Broderick, 62
Rosie O’Donnell, 62
Adrian Peterson, 39

— Dodgers 5, Padres 2
Season opener started at 6am here in the East Wednesday, 3am in LA/San Diego.
Dodgers scored four runs in 8th inning for the come-from-behind win.
Ohtani went 2-5 with an RBI in his Dodger debut.

— Speaking of Ohtani, his interpreter got fired by the Dodgers; there are questions about $4.5M in wire transfers sent from Ohtani’s bank account to a bookmaking operation in California, where sports gambling isn’t legal.

— When the Dodgers/Padres played exhibition games against KBO teams in Seoul earlier this week, different baseballs were used, depending on which team was hitting.
Major League baseballs are bigger than KBO baseballs

— Minnesota Twins have a giveaway on April 4, their home opener; first 10,000 fans there will get a wool ski cap with the Twins logo on it. If they put a damn dome on their new stadium a few years back, their fans wouldn’t need a freakin’ ski cap to go watch a baseball game.

— Buck Showalter is going to be on MLB Network, a wise move; he’s very good on TV. Always good to learn from smart people.

— Term of the Day: March Madness- Last week and this week are two of my favorite weeks of the year. Lot of stuff going on. Enjoy the games this weekend.

— New Jersey Jets signed WR Mike Williams, giving Aaron Rodgers a good receiver to throw to. Williams played seven years for the Chargers, catching 309 passes for 15.6 yards/catch, with 31 touchdowns.

— Rams moved from St Louis to Los Angeles in eight years ago; there are still five active players who played for the St Louis Rams:
QB Case Keenum, Hst
T Rob Havenstein, Rams
S Rodney McLeod, Blev
K Greg Zuerlein, NJJ
P Johnny Hecker, Colo

— Bucky Badger is the U of Wisconsin mascot, a pretty popular mascot.
Back in the late 80’s, some enterprising Wisconsin students marketed a line of condoms, with Bucky’s picture on them. Their pitch was: “Get lucky with Bucky!!!”

 

[Udog]

NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 Over (9.9 Units) after playing a game as an underdog in the current season.

NEW MEXICO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in all neutral court games in the current season.

NEBRASKA is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) as a favorite in the current season.

BAYLOR is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points in the current season.

UAB is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) after a game committing 8 or less turnovers in the current season.

MARQUETTE is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons.

CONNECTICUT is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers in the current season.

AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

DUKE is 54-26 Over (25.4 Units) in road games when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.

ALABAMA is 8-0 Over (8 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the current season.

HOUSTON is 12-3 Over (8.7 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

WISCONSIN is 10-1 Over (8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games in the current season.

UTAH ST is 9-1 Over (7.9 Units) in road games after a conference game in the current season.

ST MARYS-CA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive conference games in the current season.

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Friday, March 22

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 22

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, MARCH 21​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
MSU at MSST	12:15 PM	MSST +1.5 U 130.0	+500 +500
DUQ at BYU	12:40 PM	DUQ +9.5 U 142.5	+500 +500
AKR at CREI	01:30 PM	AKR +12.0 U 142.0	+500 +500
LBSU at ARIZ	02:00 PM	ARIZ -20.0 U 163.5	+500 +500
WAG at UNC	02:45 PM	UNC -25.0 O 133.0	+500 +500
MORE at ILL	03:10 PM	MORE +11.5 U 146.0	+500 +500
ORE at SCAR	04:00 PM	ORE -1.0 U 133.0	+500 +500
NEV at DAY	04:30 PM	NEV -1.0 O 136.5	+500 +500
CSU at TEX	06:50 PM	CSU +2.5 O 144.5	+500 +500
OAK at UK	07:10 PM	UK -13.5 U 161.5	+500 +500
MCNS at GONZ	07:25 PM	MCNS +7.0 O 149.5	+500 +500
SDST at ISU	07:35 PM	ISU -15.5 O 135.5	+500 +500
SPU at TENN	09:20 PM	TENN -21.5 U 130.0	+500 +500
NCST at TTU	09:40 PM	TTU -5.0 U 146.0	+500 +500
SAM at KU	09:55 PM	SAM +7.5 O 153.5	+500 +500
DRKE at WSU	10:05 PM	DRKE -1.0 O 139.0	+500 +500

 

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-up

Friday, March 22

Friday’s games
Day games
Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic (-2.5) (@ Brooklyn, NY)
Northwestern (21-11) ranked #46 by KenPom
Tempo: #32
Experience: #53
Continuity: #76
Northwestern lost three of its last four games.
Wildcats are shooting 39.4% on the arc (#4)
Northwestern has #249 eFG% defense in country.
Wildcats are 11-7 vs top 100 teams.
Northwestern is in non-conference games
Northwestern is 9-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Northwestern’s schedule, to this point: #49
bench minutes: #303
Northwestern is in NCAA’s for 2nd year in row, after making it once the previous 25 years.


Florida Atlantic (25-8) ranked #41 by KenPom
Tempo: #138
Experience: #43
Continuity: #1
FAU won four of its last five games.
Owls are shooting 56% inside the arc (#17)
FAU is #42 team on offensive boards.
FAU is 10-3 in non-conference games (NC SOS #40)
Owls are 11-3 vs top 100 teams.
FAU is 10-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
FAU’s schedule, to this point: #93
bench minutes: #151
FAU made Final Four LY; their previous NCAA’s was in 2002.


AAC/Big 14 split their six meetings this season SU/ATS


Colgate vs Baylor (-13.5) (@ Memphis)
Colgate (25-9) ranked #145 by KenPom
Tempo: #253
Experience: #151
Continuity: #23
Colgate won five in row, 17 of last 18 games.
Colgate allowed 60.4 ppg in its last five games.
Red Raiders have #31 eFG% defense in country.
Colgate is #19 team on defensive boards.
Red Raiders are 3-6 against top 200 teams.
Colgate’s schedule, to this point: #340
bench minutes: #59
Last six years, Patriot League teams are 0-6 SU/4-2 ATS in this round.
Colgate is in NCAA’s for 5th year in row (2-2 SU/ATS previous four)


Baylor (23-10) ranked #14 by KenPom
Tempo: #281
Experience: #89
Continuity: #236
Baylor split its last eight games.
Bears are 10-2 in their D-I non-conference games.
Baylor has #16 eFG% in country.
Opponents are shooting 51.9% inside arc (#245)
Bears are 9-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Baylor’s schedule, to this point: #1
bench minutes: #302
Baylor is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five first round games.


Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.


San Diego State (-6.5) vs UAB (@ Spokane)
San Diego State (24-10) ranked #21 by KenPom
Tempo: #266
Experience: #44
Continuity: #118
San Diego State lost three of its last five games.
Aztecs’ last four losses were all by 5 or less points.
Aztecs have #33 eFG% defense in country.
San Diego State is 9-2 in D-I non-conference games.
Aztecs are 14-10 against top 125 teams.
San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #25
bench minutes: #212
San Diego State lost the national title game LY; before that, they had lost their last three first round games.


UAB (23-11) ranked #106 by KenPom
Tempo: #153
Experience: #221
Continuity: #242
UAB won its last five games.
Blazers are 7-5 in their D-I non-conference games.
UAB is #22 team on offensive boards.
Blazers get 23.1% of points on foul line (#23)
Blazers are 9-6 vs teams ranked in top 100.
UAB’s schedule, to this point: #98
bench minutes: #269
UAB coach Kennedy is 1-2 in first round games.
Blazers are in NCAA’s for second time in three years.


Mountain West teams won both their games vs AAC teams TY.
Last three years, favorites are 8-4 ATS in #5-12 seed first round games.


Western Kentucky vs Marquette (-14.5) (@ Indianapolis)
Western Kentucky (22-11) ranked #132 by KenPom
Tempo: #1
Experience: #264
Continuity: #308
Hilltoppers won C-USA Tournament to get here.
WKU had lost its last four regular season games.
Hilltoppers have #67 eFG% defense in country.
WKU plays fastest-tempo games in country.
Hilltoppers are 8-3 in D-I non-league games.
WKU’s schedule, to this point: #243
bench minutes: #29
WKU is in NCAA’s for first time since 2013.
Last eight years, C-USA teams are 6-2 SU/ATS in this round.


Marquette (23-10) ranked #14 by KenPom
Tempo: #281
Experience: #89
Continuity: #236
Marquette’s star G Kolek (oblique) is expected back here.
Marquette split the last six games, with Kolek out.
Eagles are forcing turnovers 21.1% of time (#20)
Marquette is shooting 56% inside arc (#16)
Eagles are 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Marquette’s schedule, to this point: #7
bench minutes: #176
Marquette lost three of last four first round games.
Shaka Smart made Final Four in 2011, but is 1-6 in his last seven first round games.


Last four years, #3-seeds are 10-6 ATS vs #14-seeds.


Stetson vs UConn (-26.5) (@ Brooklyn, NY)
Stetson (22-12) ranked #218 by KenPom
Tempo: #257
Experience: #192
Continuity: #101
Stetson won nine of its last 11 games.
Hatters have #266 eFG% defense in country.
Stetson is shooting 36.5% on the arc (#37)
Stetson is #300 team on defensive boards.
Hatters are 5-6 in D-I non-league games.
Hatters are 3-4 against top 200 teams.
Stetson’s schedule, to this point: #267
bench minutes: #335
Stetson is in NCAA’s for the first time.
A-SUN teams are 6-2 ATS in last eight first round games.


UConn (31-3) ranked #1 by KenPom
Tempo: #329
Experience: #69
Continuity: #149
UConn won seven in row, 21 of last 22 games.
Huskies won the national title last year.
UConn has #6 eFG% in country, #4 eFG% defense.
Opponents are #15 team on offensive boards.
Huskies are 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
UConn’s schedule, to this point: #34
bench minutes: #227
Under Hurley, UConn is 1-2 first round games.


Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-10 ATS in first round.


New Mexico (-2.5) vs Clemson (@ Memphis)
New Mexico (26-9) ranked #23 by KenPom
Tempo: #8
Experience: #41
Continuity: #214
New Mexico won MW tourney last week, to get here.
Lobos were 4-6 SU in last 10 regular season games.
Lobos have #57 eFG% defense in country.
New Mexico is #50 team on offensive boards.
Lobos are 8-6 against top 50 teams.
New Mexico’s schedule, to this point: #85
bench minutes: #140
New Mexico is in NCAA’s for first time since 2014.


Clemson (23-10) ranked #34 by KenPom
Tempo: #260
Experience: #27
Continuity: #63
Clemson lost three of its last four games.
Tigers are shooting 54.5% inside arc (#37)
Opponents are shooting 47.1% inside arc (#49)
Clemson is 10-1 in non-conference games.
Tigers are 7-3 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Clemson’s schedule, to this point: #41
bench minutes: #236
Tigers are in NCAA’s for third time in last seven years.
Since 1998, Clemson is 1-6 in first round games (1-2 under Brownell).


Last eight years, underdogs are 18-14 ATS in #6-11 seed games.


Yale vs Auburn (-13.5) (@ Spokane)
Yale (22-9) ranked #84 by KenPom
Tempo: #327
Experience: #235
Continuity: #21
Yale has won five of its last six games.
Bulldogs are 3-3 ATS as an underdog this year.
Yale is #18 team in country protecting the ball.
Yale is #13 team on defensive boards.
Bulldogs are 1-3 against top 100 teams.
Yale is 9-6 in non-conference games (NC schedule #61)
Yale lost 86-71 at Gonzaga, 75-60 at Kansas.
Yale’s schedule, to this point: #127
bench minutes: #322
Yale is in NCAA’s for third time in last five years.
Last 12 years, Ivy League teams are 9-3 ATS in this round.

Auburn (27-7) ranked #4 by KenPom
Tempo: #58
Experience: #119
Continuity: #78
Auburn won its last six games, scoring 84 ppg.
Tigers are 11-2 in their non-conference games.
Auburn has #1 eFG% defense in country.
Opponents are shooting 42.8% inside arc (#1)
Tigers are 15-7 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Auburn’s schedule, to this point: #53
bench minutes: #8
Auburn won its last seven first round games (2-2 ATS under Pearl)


Auburn beat Yale 86-64 at home, two years ago.
Last five years, #4-seeds are 6-14 ATS in first round.
14 of the last 15 years, a #4-seed lost in the first round.


Colorado vs Florida (-1.5) (@ Indianapolis)
Colorado (25-10)
KenPom rating: 24
Tempo: 184
Experience: 178
Continuity: 61
Colorado won nine of its last 11 games.
Buffs are 10-2 in non-conference games TY.
Colorado has #20 eFG% in the country.
Buffs are #29 team in country on defensive boards.
Colorado is 5-5 vs teams in top 50.
Colorado played four starters 34:00+ in Wednesday’s win.
Buffs outscored Boise State 15-4 over final 4:31 of the 60-53 win.


Florida (24-11) ranked #28 by KenPom
Tempo: #18
Experience: #78
Continuity: #289
Florida is 4-3 in its last seven games.
Gators are 10-3 in their non-conference games.
Florida is #7 team on offensive boards.
Gators have #85 eFG% defense in country.
Gators are 7-8 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Florida’s schedule, to this point: #29
bench minutes: #191
Florida won its last eight first round games.


SEC teams are 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents TY.


Night Games
Texas A&M vs Nebraska (-1.5) (@ Memphis)
Texas A&M (20-14) ranked #45 by KenPom
Tempo: #269
Experience: #46
Continuity: #43
Texas A&M won five of its last six games.
Aggies have #345 eFG% in country.
Luckily for them, Aggies are #1 team in country on offensive boards.
Texas A&M is 9-4 in non-conference games.
Aggies are 7-7 against top 50 teams.
Texas A&M’s schedule, to this point: #18
bench minutes: #156
In his career, Buzz Williams is 5-4 SU in first round games.


Nebraska (23-10) ranked #28 by KenPom
Tempo: #105
Experience: #51
Continuity: #164
Nebraska won seven of its last nine games.
Huskers are 10-1 in their non-conference games (NC sked #322).
Nebraska has #62 eFG% in country.
Opponents are shooting 45.2% inside arc (#14)
You’re reading armadillosports.com
Huskers are 13-10 vs teams ranked in the top 100.
Nebraska’s schedule, to this point: #66
bench minutes: #95
Nebraska is in NCAA for first time since 2014; they’re 0-2 since 1997.
Coach Hoiberg was 3-1 in the first round while coaching Iowa State.


This year, SEC teams are 9-4 SU/ATS vs Big 14 opponents.


Vermont vs Duke (-11.5) (@ Brooklyn, NY)
Vermont (28-6) ranked #104 by KenPom
Tempo: #349
Experience: #95
Continuity: #172
Vermont won 10 in row, 19 of last 20 games.
Vermont is 8-5 in their D-I non-conference games.
Catamounts have #24 eFG% defense in country.
Vermont is #8 team on defensive boards.
Catamounts are 2-2 against top 100 teams.
Vermont’s schedule, to this point: #243
bench minutes: #53
Last five years, America East teams are 4-1 ATS in this round.
Vermont is in NCAA’s for 5th time in last seven years.


Duke (24-8) ranked #8 by KenPom
Tempo: #231
Experience: #206
Continuity: #25
Duke split its last six games, losing last two.
Duke is 9-2 in their non-conference games.
Blue Devils have #21 eFG% in country.
Duke is #56 team on defensive boards.
Blue Devils are 13-2 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Duke’s schedule, to this point: #75
bench minutes: #268
Since 2009, Duke is 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS in first round games.


Last five years, #4-seeds are 6-14 ATS in first round.
14 of the last 15 years, a #4-seed lost in the first round.


Grambling vs Purdue (-26.5) (@ Indianapolis)
Grambling (21-14)
KenPom rating: 260
Tempo: 316
Experience: 210
Continuity: 188
Grambling won SWAC regular season, going 14-4.
Tigers are 1-10 SU in their D-I non-conference games.
Grambling has played the #4 non-conference schedule.
Grambling is turning ball over 20.4% of time (#338)
Tigers are #323 team on defensive boards.
Grambling is 0-6 vs top 100 teams (four losses by 30+).
Grambling played three guys 33:00+ in Wednesday’s OT win.
SWAC teams are 3-2 ATS in last five first round games.

Purdue (29-4) ranked #3 by KenPom
Tempo: #174
Experience: #66
Continuity: #9
Purdue won six of its last seven games.
Purdue has #13 eFG% in country.
Boilers are shooting 40.8% on the arc (#2)
Boilers are 11-0 in non-conference games (NC schedule #13).
Purdue is #8 team on offensive boards.
Boilers are 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Purdue’s schedule, to this point: #4
bench minutes: #239
Purdue is 4-2 ATS in last six first round games.
Boilers lost in first round LY, as a 23-point favorite.


Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-10 ATS in first round.


Charleston vs Alabama (-9.5) (@ Spokane)
Charleston (32-6) ranked #99 by KenPom
Tempo: #58
Experience: #220
Continuity: #252
Charleston won its last 12 games.
Charleston hasn’t played in ten days.
Cougars have #83 eFG% in country.
Charleston is #46 team on offensive boards.
Cougars are 5-4 against top 150 teams.
Charleston’s schedule, to this point: #226
bench minutes: #25
Charleston is in NCAA’s for 3rd time in seven years (lost 63-57 LY)
Cougars’ last first round win was in 1997 (0-4 since)
CAA teams lost last ten first round games (0-4 ATS last four).


Alabama (21-11) ranked #12 by KenPom
Tempo: #11
Experience: #60
Continuity: #276
Alabama lost four of its last six games.
They gave up 100+ points in three of the four losses.
Crimson Tide is 8-5 in non-conference games (NC SOS #17).
Alabama has #11 eFG% in country.
Crimson Tide is #26 team on offensive boards.
Opponents are shooting 51.1% inside arc (#217)
Crimson Tide is 12-11 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Alabama’s schedule, to this point: #5
bench minutes: #139
Alabama is 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in last four first round games.


Last five years, #4-seeds are 6-14 ATS in first round.
14 of the last 15 years, a #4-seed lost in the first round.


Longwood vs Houston (-22.5) (@ Memphis)
Longwood (21-13) ranked #158 by KenPom
Tempo: #226
Experience: #137
Continuity: #145
Longwood won seven of its last nine games.
Lancers haven’t played in 12 days.
Lancers force turnovers 19.7% of time (#45)
Longwood is #12 team on offensive boards.
Lancers are 9-3 in their D-I non-conference games (NC SOS #345).
Longwood is 3-6 against top 200 teams.
Longwood’s schedule, to this point: #285
bench minutes: #218
Longwood is 0-2 vs teams in top 125, losing by 4-9 points.
Last seven years, Big South teams are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in this round.


Houston (30-4) ranked #2 by KenPom
Tempo: #348
Experience: #95
Continuity: #127
Houston won 11 of its last 12 games.
Cougars are 13-0 in their non-conference games (NC SOS #226).
Houston has #2 eFG% defense in country.
Opponents are shooting 43.4% inside arc (#4)
Cougars are 11-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100.
Houston’s schedule, to this point: #15
bench minutes: #194
Under Sampson, Houston is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in first round games.


Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-10 ATS in first round.


James Madison vs Wisconsin. (-4.5) (@ Brooklyn, NY)
James Madison (31-3) ranked #58 by KenPom
Tempo: #71
Experience: #12
Continuity: #97
James Madison won its last 13 games.
Dukes have #23 eFG% defense in country.
Dukes have #34 eFG% in country.
JMU is forcing turnovers 19.8% of time (#42).
Dukes are 1-2 against top 100 teams.
JMU started the season with an OT win at Michigan State
JMU’s schedule, to this point: #293
bench minutes: #124
James Madison is in NCAA’s for first time since 2013.
Sun Belt teams are 5-3 ATS in last eight first round games.


Wisconsin (22-13) ranked #17 by KenPom
Tempo: #307
Experience: #48
Continuity: #8
Wisconsin is 6-9 SU since February 1st.
They won three of four games in Big 14 Tourney last week.
Badgers have #275 eFG% defense in country.
Badgers are 8-3 in their non-conference games (NC SOS #49).
Wisconsin is #17 team on defensive boards.
Wisconsin’s schedule, to this point: #2
bench minutes: #283
Under Gard, Badgers are 5-1 SU/ATS in first round games.


Last three years, favorites are 8-4 ATS in #5-12 seed first round games.


TCU (-3.5) vs Utah State (@ Indianapolis)
TCU (21-12) ranked #35 by KenPom
Tempo: #65
Experience: #3
Continuity: #139
TCU is 5-7 in its last 12 games.
Horned Frogs are forcing turnovers 20.8% of time (#22)
TCU is #20 team on offensive boards.
TCU is 7-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Horned Frogs are 7-12 against top 100 teams.
TCU’s schedule, to this point: #47
bench minutes: #122
TCU is in NCAA’s for 3rd year in row; they won in 1st round last two years.
Coach Dixon is 10-4 SU in first round games.


Utah State (27-6) ranked #47 by KenPom
Tempo: #107
Experience: #79
Continuity: #360
Utah State won six of its last seven games.
Aggies are 10-1 in their D-I non-conference games.
Utah State is shooting 57.1% inside arc (#12)
Opponents are shooting 53.1% inside arc (#304)
Aggies are 5-5 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Utah State’s schedule, to this point: #87
bench minutes: #327
Since 2019, Utah State is 0-3 in first round games.
Aggies lost last nine first round games; their last win was in 2001.


Big X teams are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS vs Mountain West foes this season.


Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s (-4.5) (@ Spokane)
Grand Canyon (29-4) ranked #53 by KenPom
Tempo: #135
Experience: #59
Continuity: #156
Grand Canyon won five in row, 12 of last 14 games.
Antelopes have #10 eFG% defense in country.
Antelopes are forcing turnovers 19.9% of time (#38)
Grand Canyon is #30 team on offensive boards.
Antelopes are 3-1 against top 100 teams.
Antelopes allowed 75+ points in all four of their losses.
Grand Canyon’s schedule, to this point: #204
bench minutes: #292
Grand Canyon is 0-2 in first round games, losing by 12-12 points.
Last four years, WAC teams are 1-3 SU/4-0 ATS in first round games.


Saint Mary’s (26-7) ranked #18 by KenPom
Tempo: #358
Experience: #172
Continuity: #33
Saint Mary’s won 18 of its last 19 games.
Gaels are 8-6 in their D-I non-conference games.
Saint Mary’s has #3 eFG% defense in country.
Opponents are shooting 43.6% inside arc (#5)
Gaels are 7-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Saint Mary’s schedule, to this point: #109
bench minutes: #258
Saint Mary’s is 3-1 SU/3-0-1 ATS in last four first round games.


WAC teams are 4-2 SU/6-0 ATS vs WCC teams this year,
Saint Mary’s playing in Gonzaga’s city is a little weird.
Last three years, favorites are 8-4 ATS in #5-12 seed first round games.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Most NCAA Tournament wins:
101— Mike Krzyzewski
79— Roy Williams
65— Dean Smith
62— Jim Boeheim
57— John Calipari, Bill Self
56— Tom Izzo

Quote of the Day
“Obviously, we come in, we’re the underdog by all measures, but as a player you can’t think that way. You got to go out there and think you have the same talent level as them. I know they have draft picks, and I know I’m not going to the NBA, but I know on any given night I can compete with those guys — and our team can. That’s why I say we’re not a Cinderella, because when we play our A-game, we can be the best team on the floor.”
Oakland’s Jack Gohlke

Friday’s quiz
How many major league baseball teams have never won a World Series?

Thursday’s quiz
Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, a #15-seed beaten a #2-seed 11 times in the first round.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Crash Davis (Kevin Costner) struck out in his first at-bat with the Bulls.

*******************************************

2 Dens for Friday; Den #1, Wrapping up the first day of the NCAA’s​

— Oakland 80, Kentucky 76
Jack Gohlke was 10-20 on the arc, scored 32 points.
For season, Gohlke is 131-347 on 3’s (37.8%), 4-8 on 2’s.
This is only 2nd time in last seven years a #14-seed won an NCAA game.

— NC State 80, Texas Tech 67
Wolfpack is 6-0 in postseason, after going 2-7 in last nine regular season games.
Oakland-NC State is an #11-14 2nd round game; here are all the #11-14 games, ever:
1989- Minnesota (-3) 80, Siena 67
1991- UConn (-4.5) 66, Xavier 50
1998- Washington (-3) 81, Richmond 66
2014- Tennessee (-7.5) 83, Mercer 63
2016- UCLA (-8) 92, UAB 85
2021- UCLA (-5.5) 67, Abilene Christian 47

— Washington State 66, Drake 61
Drake was only 6-14 on foul line, Wazzu 17-22.
Drake led 59-58 with 2:00 left in game.
DeVries, Drake’s best player, was only 6-18 from floor.

— Gonzaga 86, McNeese State 65
Zags led 48-25 at halftime, had a stress-free win.
Gonzaga has won 10 of its last 11 games.
Last eight years, Zags are 8-0 SU/4-4 ATS in 2nd round games.

— Iowa State 82, South Dakota State 65
Cyclones shot 64.7% inside the arc.
Iowa State won 12 of its last 14 games.
Cyclones force turnovers 25.6% of time, #2 in country.

— Texas 56, Colorado State 44
Longhorns led this game 27-11 at halftime.
Teams combined to shoot 7-38 on the arc.
Longhorns are 7-7 in their last 14 games.

— Kansas 93, Samford 89
Down 20 in second half, Samford fought back, got within two points.
Kansas won despite being minus-11 (18-7) in turnovers.
Jayhawks’ C Dickinson had 19 points, 20 rebounds with a bum shoulder.

— Tennessee 83, Saint Peter’s 49
Vols shot 11-24 on arc in this stress-free win.
Tennessee out-rebounded Saint Peter’s 47-21.
Vols’ next game is against Texas, Rick Barnes’ old team.
Barnes coached the Longhorns from 1999-2015.

Famous birthdays for March 22:
William Shatner, 93
Don Chaney, 78
Matthew Modine, 65
Brian Shaw, 58
Reggie White, 54
Marcus Camby, 50
Reese Witherspoon, 48
JJ Watt, 35

— Dayton 63, Nevada 60
Nevada led 56-39 with 7:39 left to play.
Wolf Pack ended first half on a 16-0 run.
Dayton ended game on a 24-4 run.
Dayton was 13-15 on foul line, Nevada 3-6.

— Duquesne 71, BYU 67
Dukes win in NCAA’s for first time since 1969.
Duquesne is 16-3 in last 19 games, after starting season 9-8 (0-5 in A-15)
BYU was 8-24 on arc; this year, they got 41% of their points on 3’s.

— Oregon 87, South Carolina 73
Oregon shot 67.7% inside arc, was 24-30 on foul line.
Under Dana Altman, Ducks are 8-0 in the first round.
South Carolina split its last 10 games, after a 21-3 start.

— Arizona 85, Long Beach State 65
Arizona’s lead was only 41-35 at halftime.
Wildcats shot 13-35 on the arc, 17-37 inside arc.
Arizona’s next game is against Dayton Saturday.

— Creighton 77, Akron 60
Bluejays made 10-17 shots on the arc.
Akron led 34-31 late in first half.
Creighton wins/covers despite being minus-9 in turnovers (14-5)

— Illinois 85, Morehead State 69
Illinois held slim 39-38 lead at halftime.
Illinois shot 1.33 points/possession (12-26 on arc)
Illini moves on to play Duquesne Saturday.

— North Carolina 90, Wagner 62
Game was 13-13 early on, but then reality set in.
Tar Heels shot 57.1% inside the arc.
North Carolina moves on to play Michigan State Saturday.

— Michigan State 69, Mississippi State 51
Spartans jumped out to 20-8 lead, and never trailed.
Michigan State won six of last seven first round games.
Miss State lost six of its last eight games.

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Friday’s 2nd Den: Some random knowledge…….​

— Padres 15, Dodgers 11
Teams split their two games in Korea.
Yamamoto’s LA debut: 1 IP, 43 pitches, 5 runs allowed.
Jake Cronenworth was 4-4 with 4 RBI for the Padres.

— Texas Rangers signed P Michael Lorenzen for one year, $4.5M with incentives that could take the contract up to $7M.

— Congrats to Mets P Jose Quintana, who became an American citizen this week.

— Happy 91st birthday to former big league OF George Altman, the only left-handed hitter ever to hit two home runs in a game against Sandy Koufax (two righty hitters did it).

— Oklahoma City Thunder fan banked in a half-court shot during a timeout the other night, and banked a $20,000 check for his efforts.

— Akron’s 6-7 Enrique Freeman was in college on an academic scholarship; he went to an open tryout to play for the Zips’ basketball team, and now he’s their best player.

— Illinois hasn’t been in a Sweet 16 since 2005; if they beat Duquesne Saturday, they’ll end that drought.

— When Duquesne beat BYU Thursday, the best player in Dukes’ history was there. Norm Nixon played 10 years in the NBA, scored over 12,000 points; he was on the last Duquesne team to play in the NCAA’s, back in 1977. He won two NBA championship rings playing for the Lakers.

— Detroit Pistons have used 30 players this year, tied for most players ever used in one season by an NBA team.

— SMU fired basketball coach Rob Lanier, after the Mustangs went 20-13 this year; they did lose six of their last seven games, but 20-13 is pretty good, especially after they went 10-22 last year.
Rich people run things in college sports, and rich people aren’t patient. SMU moves into the ACC next season; am curious to see who’ll they’ll hire as the Mustangs move way up in class.

— Lady on The Price Is Right Thursday was only $900 off on her showcase bid, which is great, but her bid went over, so she lost to a lady whose bid missed by $11,000.

Some 2nd round trends for the NCAA’s:
— Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six second round games.

— North Carolina is a #1-seed; last four times they were a #1-seed, they went 3-1 ATS in their second round game (they went 2-4 ATS in last six 2nd round games, when they weren’t a #1-seed).

— Michigan State is 2-3 SU in their last five second round games. Since 2012, Spartans are 2-2 ATS as an underdog in second round games.

— Since 2017, #11-seeds who posted upsets in the first round, are 9-2 ATS in their second round game. Duquesne/Oregon are #11-seeds who play again Saturday.

— Last six years, #1-seeds are 9-13 ATS in second round.

— Last six years, #2-seeds are 8-12 ATS in second round.

— Last six years, #3-seeds are 7-16 ATS in second round.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, MARCH 22​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
NW at FAU	12:15 PM	NW +3.0 O 142.5	+500 +500
COLG at BAY	12:40 PM	BAY -14.0 O 137.5	+500 +500
UAB at SDSU	01:45 PM	UAB +7.0 O 139.0	+500 +500
WKU at MARQ	02:00 PM	MARQ -14.5 U 158.0	+500 +500
STET at CONN	02:45 PM	CONN -26.5 O 146.0	+500 +500
UNM at CLEM	03:10 PM	UNM -2.5 U 152.0	+500 +500
YALE at AUB	04:15 PM	AUB -13.0 U 140.5	+500 +500
COLO at FLA	04:30 PM	COLO +1.5 O 158.5	+500 +500
TAM at NEB	06:50 PM	NEB -1.0 U 147.0	+500 +500
UVM at DUKE	07:10 PM	DUKE -12.5 O 131.5	+500 +500
GRAM at PUR	07:25 PM	GRAM +26.5 O 138.5	+500 +500
COFC at ALA	07:35 PM	ALA -9.5 O 173.5	+500 +500
LONG at HOU	09:20 PM	LONG +24.0 O 128.0	+500 +500
JMU at WIS	09:40 PM	JMU +5.0 O 145.0	+500 +500
TCU at USU	09:55 PM	TCU -4.0 O 150.5	+500 +500
GRC at SMC	10:05 PM	GRC +5.5 O 131.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 8-pack:
Second round NIT matchups
— North Texas @ Seton Hall
— Bradley @ Cincinnati
— Virginia Tech @ Ohio State
— Minnesota @ Indiana State
— Georgia @ Wake Forest
— VCU @ South Florida
— Iowa @ Utah
— Boston College @ UNLV

Quote of the Day
“I don’t know if that’s the best win in Yale basketball history, but I will tell you that is the best basketball team we’ve beat in Yale basketball history, as far as I’m concerned.”
Yale basketball coach James Jones

Saturday’s quiz
Vermont is 1-9 in NCAA Tournament games; who is their only win against?

Friday’s quiz
Five major league baseball teams have never won a World Series:
Rockies, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rays

Thursday’s quiz
Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, a #15-seed beaten a #2-seed 11 times in the first round.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up the 2nd day of March Madness…….​

If you love college basketball and betting on the NCAA Tournament, get ESPN+ and watch these mid-major teams play all winter long. ESPN only shows the big $$$ schools but ESPN+ has just about all the conferences. The $99 a year for ESPN+ is well worth it.

— Grand Canyon 75, Saint Mary’s 66
First-ever NCAA Tournament win for Grand Canyon.
Antelopes were 28-36 on foul line, Saint Mary’s 7-12.
Grand Canyon-Alabama Sunday should be a fast-paced tilt.
My thought watching this game: GCU is better than a 12-seed.

— James Madison 72, Wisconsin 61
Dukes ran out to a 33-16 lead and had a fairly stress-free win.
JMU has won 14 games in a row, is now 32-3.
Dukes get their first NCAA Tournament win since 2013.

— Utah State 88, TCU 72
Aggies get their first NCAA Tournament win since 2001.
Utah State shot 55% from the floor.
Since 2019, Mountain West teams other than San Diego State are now 2-13 in NCAAs.

— Alabama 109, Charleston 96
Alabama made 13-23 shots on the arc; they led 51-34 at half.
SEC teams went 3-5 in first round of the tournament.
This game had highest total of any NCAA game since 1995.

— Purdue 78, Grambling 50
Game was only 36-27 at halftime.
Zach Edey scored 30 points, grabbed 21 rebounds.
Purdue out-rebounded Grambling, 47-23.

— Duke 64, Vermont 47
Game was only 34-29 at halftime.
Duke was 20-29 on foul line, Vermont 2-6.
Vermont is now 1-9 all-time in first round games.

— Texas A&M 98, Nebraska 76
Aggies came into game shooting 28.4% on arc; they were 13-23 in this game.
Texas A&M led 58-44……..at halftime.
Wade Taylor scored 25 points, was 7-10 on the arc.

— Houston 86, Longwood 46
This was a total mismatch, 43-16 at halftime.
Cougars scored 1.39 ppp, shot 66.7% inside arc.
Houston will have a tougher game Sunday, against Texas A&M.

Famous birthdays for March 23:
Ron Jaworski, 73
Jason Kidd, 51
Mark Buehrle, 45
Maurice Jones-Drew, 39
Gordon Hayward, 34
Kyrie Irving, 32

— Yale 78, Auburn 76
Auburn led by 10 with 7:27 left in game.
Yale was 21-31 on foul line, Auburn 15-22.
Last 13 years, Ivy League teams are 10-3 ATS in first round game.

— Colorado 102, Florida 100
Colorado led by 13 with 4:28 left, blew the lead.
Junior G Simpson hit baseline jumper with 0:02 left for the win.
Buffs won 10 of their last 11 games.

— San Diego State 69, UAB 65
Aztecs outscored UAB 14-7 over final of the game.
Jaedon Ledee scored 32 of San Diego State’s 69 points.
UAB shot 37.7% from the floor.

— Marquette 87, Western Kentucky 69
Marquette outscored the Hilltoppers 51-26 in second half.
Kolek returned from injury, scored 18 points, had 11 assists.
Marquette shot 60.6% inside arc, was +8 (18-10) in turnovers.

— Clemson 77, New Mexico 56
Tigers jumped out to 27-11 lead, had surprisingly easy win.
Clemson is only #6-seed to advance to second round.
New Mexico was 8-7 in its last 15 games, after an 18-3 start.

— Northwestern 77, Florida Atlantic 65, OT
Northwestern hit jumper with 0:09 left to force overtime.
Wildcats had previously blown a 9-point lead with 6:30 left.
FAU went 5-4 in its last nine games, after a 20-5 start.

— Baylor 92, Colgate 67
Baylor made 16-30 shots on the arc, led 54-34 at halftime.
Baylor is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in last six first round games.
Colgate was in NCAA’s for 5th year in row (0-5 SU/2-3 ATS)

— UConn 91, Stetson 52
Huskies jumped out to 23-4 lead, jogged to an easy win.
UConn advances to play Northwestern Sunday.
Stetson’s famous alumni: Jacob deGrom and Ted Cassidy, the guy who played Lurch on The Addams Family.