NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NOTES, NEWS OPINIONS AND BEST BETS THRU MARCH MADNESS !

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Thursday, January 25


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Trend Report
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Friday’s 6-pack:
Early odds to win next season’s Super Bowl:
6-1— 49ers
10-1— Chiefs, Ravens
12-1— Bills
14-1— Cowboys, Lions, Packers
16-1— Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles
25-1— Rams, Falcons, Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, Jets

Quote of the Day
“……you learn the most when things aren’t going very well. Everyone can be positive when you’re winning a bunch of football games.”
Titans’ coach Brian Callahan

Friday’s quiz
Who is the career leader in passing yards for the Green Bay Packers?

Thursday’s quiz
New Orleans Saints started playing in 1967, but they didn’t win a playoff game until 2000; Jim Haslett was the coach when they got that first playoff win.

Wednesday’s quiz
Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing played 15 of his 17 seasons with the Knicks; he finished his career with the Orlando Magic, after playing a year with Seattle.

**************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff, with the weekend here…….

— There were eight head coaching openings in the NFL; 6 of the 8 jobs have been filled, with Washington/Seattle remaining. Not only has Bill Belichick not been hired, Atlanta was the only team that interviewed him but they hired Rams’ DC Raheem Morris Thursday.
Morris went 17-31 in three years coaching Tampa Bay, from 2009-11.

— Four of the other five coaching openings have been filled by first-time head coaches, with Jim Harbaugh/Chargers the exception.

— Rams, by the way, will be awarded two 3rd-round draft picks under the NFL’s plan that rewards a team that develops a minority candidate hired by another franchise as a head coach or general manager.

— Carolina Panthers hired Tampa Bay’s OC Dave Canales as their new head coach.

— Philadelphia Eagles named Vic Fangio their new defensive coordinator.
Last year, the Eagles did so well that both their coordinators were hired elsewhere as head coaches; this year, they fired both their coordinators.

— If Belichick doesn’t get another coaching job, will a TV network reach out to him? The guy has gone out of his way to be as boring as humanly possible in press conferences, but it would be interesting to listen to him talk football during games.
Last thought on the coaching carousel; how do you not bring Belichick in for an interview, just to pick his brain?

— Sunday night’s NFC title game will be only the 2nd game the Lions have played outdoors since October 22; they lost 28-13 in Chicago December 10.

Baseball Note of the Day: Last year, Milwaukee Brewers’ 1st basemen hit .231, with an OPS of .681, not good. Milwaukee DH’s hit .219, with an OPS of .657, even worse, all of which explains why the Brewers gave Rhys Hoskins $34M for two years.

Word of the Day: Vivacious- someone who is lively, exciting, fun to be around.

— Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra recently signed an 8-year, $15M/year contract; there are 108 NBA players who are making more $$$ than Spoelstra this year.
Also in the NBA, Washington Wizards fired coach Wes Unseld Jr, who went 77-130 in 2.5 years coaching Washington, the team his father starred for as a player.

— When St John’s beat Villanova 70-50 Wednesday, it was the first time since 1993 that the Red Storm swept their regular season meetings with Villanova.

— Gonzaga 77, San Francisco 72
USF led by 6 early in second half.
Gonzaga played only seven guys (#346 in bench minutes)

— Wright State 107, Cleveland State 99, OT
Cleveland State led by 11 with 7:50 left in regulation.
Wright State shot 61.4% inside arc, 32-39 on foul line.

— North Texas 68, SMU 66
Mean Green made 10-23 shots on the arc.
Robert Allen had 12 points, 10 rebounds off the bench.

— Towson 70, Drexel 67
First loss for the Dragons in eight CAA games.
Towson is #2 team in country on offensive boards.

— Cal-San Diego 66, Cal-Riverside 65
Tritons were 12-15 on foul line, Riverside 3-5
UCSD is 7-1, tied for 1st in Big West; they’re ineligible for NCAA’s.

— Eastern Washington 77, Northern Colorado 74
Eagles improve to 6-0 in the Big Sky.
Eastern Washington put five players in double figures.
 

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WISCONSIN is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% in the current season.

KENT ST is 29-15 ATS (12.5 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the last 3 seasons.

SIENA is 6-0 Over (6 Units) off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival in the last 3 seasons.

MARIST is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after allowing 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

MANHATTAN is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons.

ST BONAVENTURE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seaso...

UTAH VALLEY ST is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

STANFORD is 27-9 Under (17.1 Units) in road games after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games since 1997.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, January 26

Friday’s 5 interesting games
Ohio
@ Kent State (-2.5)
Ohio (9-10, 3-4)
KenPom rating: 170
Tempo: 198
Experience: 166
Continuity: 63
Ohio is 0-3 on MAC road, losing by 5-2-9 points.
MAC opponents are shooting 40.% on arc against them.
Bobcats are 2-8 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Ohio is 2-6 vs top 200 teams.


Kent State (10-9, 3-4)
KenPom rating: 167
Tempo: 194
Experience: 193
Continuity: 113
Kent is 3-6 in last nine games, after a 7-3 start.
Kent has #313 eFG% defense in country.
Golden Flashes are shooting 37.6% on arc (#30)
Golden Flashes are 3-7 vs teams in top 200.


Kent State won last four series games.
Bobcats lost their last eight visits to Kent.
MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 2-7 ATS.


Iona
(-8.5) @ Siena
Iona (8-10, 3-4)
KenPom rating: 179
Tempo: 208
Experience: 163
Continuity: 352
Iona plays lot of guys; they’re #59 in bench minutes
Gaels are 0-6 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Iona is #252 team in country on defensive boards.
Iona is 5-3 against teams ranked outside top 200.


Siena (3-15, 2-5)
KenPom rating: 347
Tempo: 225
Experience: 359
Continuity: 322
Siena lost 10 of its last 11 games.
Saints are turning ball over 23.9% of time (#360).
Siena has #334 eFG% in country.
Saints are 0-7 vs top 200 teams.


Teams split their last 14 meetings.
Iona lost last three visits to Albany, by 1-6-17 points.
MAAC home underdogs of 4+ points are 1-4 ATS.


Michigan State
@ Wisconsin (-2.5)
Michigan State (12-7, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 16
Tempo: 278
Experience: 83
Continuity: 25
Michigan State won three in row, 8 of last 10 games.
MSU is 1-7 when it allows 70+ points, 11-0 when it allows less than 70.
MSU has #24 eFG% defense in the country.
Spartans are 2-5 vs teams ranked in top 50.


Wisconsin (15-4, 7-1)
KenPom rating: 11
Tempo: 326
Experience: 50
Continuity: 8
Wisconsin won eight of its last nine games.
Badgers are #6 team in country on defensive boards.
Wisconsin is 6-3 against teams in top 50.
Badgers are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS as a Big 14 home favorite.


Michigan State won three of last four series games.
Spartans won four of last five visits to Madison.
Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-5 ATS.


St Joe’s
@ St Bonaventure (-2.5)
St Joe’s (13-6, 3-3)
KenPom rating: 87
Tempo: 158
Experience: 119
Continuity: 24
St Joe’s won its last three games, scoring 77 ppg.
Hawks have #30 eFG% defense in country.
Hawks are 3-1 vs teams ranked in top 100.
St Joe’s is shooting 36.9% on arc (#44)


St Bonaventure (11-7, 2-4)
KenPom rating: 86
Tempo: 273
Experience: 1
Continuity: 31
St Bonaventure lost four of its last five games.
Bonnies are shooting 44.4% inside arc in A-15 tilts (#14 of 15)
Bonnies are 2-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Bonnies are 4-3 in games decided by 6 or less points.


St Bonaventure won last nine series games.
Hawks lost their last five visits to Olean.
A-15 home favorites of 4 or fewer points are 7-10 ATS.


Stanford
@ California (-1.5)
Stanford (10-8, 5-3)
KenPom rating: 91
Tempo: 86
Experience: 40
Continuity: 54
Stanford won five of its last seven games.
Cardinal is shooting 40% on the arc (#8)
Cardinal is 5-8 vs teams ranked in top 125.
Last five games, Stanford scored 83.6 ppg.


California (7-12, 3-5)
KenPom rating: 119
Tempo: 184
Experience: 33
Continuity: 316
Cal is 3-2 in last five games, after a 4-10 start.
Cal is 2-7 vs teams ranked in top 100
Cal is 4-10 in games decided by 8 or less points, or in OT.
Golden Bears have #246 eFG% defense in country.


Teams split their last 12 meetings.
Cardinal lost three of last four visits to Berkeley.
Pac-12 home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-6 ATS.
 

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Friday, January 26


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Trend Report
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Ohio @ Kent State
Ohio
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ohio's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio's last 6 games when playing Kent State
Kent State
Kent State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Ohio
Kent State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home

Iona @ Siena
Iona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Siena
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iona's last 6 games when playing Siena
Siena
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Siena's last 5 games when playing at home against Iona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Siena's last 6 games when playing Iona

Marist @ Niagara
Marist
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marist's last 6 games when playing Niagara
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marist's last 5 games on the road
Niagara
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Niagara's last 6 games when playing Marist
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Niagara's last 7 games when playing at home against Marist

Manhattan @ Canisius
Manhattan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Manhattan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Canisius
Manhattan is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Canisius
Canisius
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Canisius's last 5 games when playing at home against Manhattan
Canisius is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 6 games at home

Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure
Saint Joseph's
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saint Joseph's's last 7 games on the road
Saint Joseph's is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saint Joseph's
St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saint Joseph's

Utah Valley @ Seattle
Utah Valley
Utah Valley is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Utah Valley is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Stanford @ California
Stanford
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Stanford's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Stanford's last 11 games when playing California
California
California is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Stanford
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of California's last 11 games when playing Stanford


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Saturday’s 6-pack:
— Dallas 148, Hawks 143- Luka Doncic scored 73 points, had 7 assists.
— Rockets 138, Hornets 104- Houston shot 75% in the second half.
— Pacers 133, Suns 131- Indiana outscored Phoenix 28-17 in 4th quarter.
— Grizzlies 107, Magic 106- Memphis won its third straight game.
— Clippers 127, Raptors 107- Harden had 22 points, 10 rebounds, 13 assists.
— Cavaliers 112, Bucks 100- Cleveland won nine of its last ten games.

Quote of the Day
“He’s got some stuff to him. I don’t think the shot is that good. But he’s got some real tools. He’s 7-2, he can move, he can transfer the ball on the perimeter, he can pass it some, he has enough fluid athleticism in the open floor and can already shoot it [well] enough.”
An unnamed NBA scout, talking about Kentucky’s Zvonimir Ivisic

Saturday’s quiz
Michael Jordan was the #3 pick in the 1984 NBA Draft; who was the first pick?

Friday’s quiz
Brett Favre is career leader in passing yards for the Packers, with 61,655 yards.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 59,055 yards with Green Bay.

Thursday’s quiz
New Orleans Saints started playing in 1967, but they didn’t win a playoff game until 2000; Jim Haslett was the coach when they got that first playoff win.

***************************************

Saturday’s Den: College basketball notes……..

Notes from 13 of the best leagues in the country:

Southern
71% free throw % is 2nd-worst of any conference.
35.3% on 3’s is 7th-best %age in country.
NC-Greensboro/Samford are tied for first, at 6-1
Furman/Chattanooga are game behind, at 5-2.
From 2015-22, Western Carolina was 101-151, 54-89 in SoCon.
Last two years, Western Carolina is 33-21, 14-11 in SoCon.

WAC
WAC teams are playing 2nd-fastest tempo in country.
WAC games have the most free throws of any league in country.
Grand Canyon is 8-1; they lead the WAC by 2.5 games.
Antelopes will have pressure in WAC tourney; this is a one-bid league.
In three years under Chris Victor, Seattle is 55-29, 30-15 in WAC games.

WCC
WCC teams are shooting 53.4% inside the arc, best in country.
WCC teams have the 3rd-fewest turnovers of any league.
Saint Mary’s is 6-0 in WCC, after a 9-6 pre-conference mark.
Santa Clara is 6-1, Gonzaga 5-1, right behind the Gaels.
Right now, according to ESPN’s Bracketology, this is a one-bid league, with Gonzaga the first team out of the field of 68, but we’re still in January, still a long way to go.

Missouri Valley
Valley teams are #6 in country in eFG%; lot of good shooters.
Valley teams are outside top 20 in steals, blocked shots; not a great defensive league.
Indiana State leads the Valley with an 8-1 record.
Drake/Bradley are both a game behind. Right now, this is a one-bid league.
Belmont has won 20+ games thirteen years in a row; right now, they’re 11-9.
Last two years, Bradley is 40-15, 23-6 in Valley games.

American
39.6% of shots AAC teams take are 3’s, 3rd-highest %age.
AAC teams rebound 31.2% of their missed shots, #5 in country.
FAU/Charlotte are 6-1 in AAC; North Texas/South Florida are 5-1.
From 2010-21, Wichita State was 168-43 in league games; the last three years, Shockers are 15-24, 0-6 this season.
East Carolina is 3-5 in games decided by 6 or less points, lot of close games.
Florida Atlantic is 6-1 in AAC this year, only 2-5 against the spread.

Atlantic 15
A-15 teams are shooting 48.5% inside arc, 3rd-worst in country.
Home teams are only 25-22 SU in A-15 league games (#24 home win %age)
Dayton/Richmond are tied for first in A-15, with 6-0 records.
Loyola (5-2), VCU (4-2) are next in the standings.
This is a one-bid league, unless Dayton loses in the A-15 tourney- Flyers are getting in.
In 8 years under Bob McKillop, Davidson was 91-46 in A-15; in the two years since he retired and his son took over the program, Davidson is 10-14 in A-15 games.

Baseball Note of the Day: Minnesota Twins won the World Series in 1991; since then, no Minnesota team has won a championship, or gotten to the finals in their league. Of the 13 places with teams in all four major sports, Minnesota’s drought is 10 years longer than anyone else’s.

Thought of the Day: Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.

Mountain West
Mountain West teams are playing 4th-slowest tempo in country.
Mountain West teams are shooting 52.9% inside arc, #4 n country.
Utah State/Boise State are 6-1; San Diego State/New Mexico are 5-2.
Colorado State was 12-1 in pre-conference, but is only 3-3 in league games.
Bracketology has five Mountain West teams in Field of 68.
16-4 Nevada is in Next Four Out; MW has six teams in the top 60.

Pac-12
Pac-12 teams are shooting 36.6% on arc, #2 in country.
Home teams are 37-14 in Pac-12 games, #2 %age in country.
Oregon is 6-2 in Pac-12, followed by Colorado at 6-3.
Arizona schools are both 5-3.
Last four years, UCLA was 99-36, 58-19 in Pac-12. This year, they’re 8-11, 3-5.
Arizona is 6-5 in its last eleven games, after an 8-0 start.

ACC
ACC teams are shooting 74% on foul line, 3rd-best in country.
ACC teams are shooting only 49.8% inside arc, #20 in country.
North Carolina is 8-0 in ACC games; their last loss was December 16.
Florida State/Duke are next in standings, at 5-2.
Bracketology has Wake Forest/Virginia in Next Four Out.
Other than UNC, they have Duke as a 5-seed, Clemson as a 7-seed.

Big 14
Big 14 teams are shooting 36% on the arc, #3 in country.
Big 14’s turnover %age is 15.9%, #5 in country.
Wisconsin is 8-1 in Big 14, Purdue 7-2.
Illinois/Northwestern are tied for third, at 5-3.
Bracketology has six Big 14 teams in the Field of 68.
Michigan State is 12-8, 4-5; they haven’t missed NCAA’s since 1997.

SEC
SEC teams have 48.8 eFG%, 4th-worst in country.
SEC teams are playing 4th-fastest tempo in country.
Auburn/Alabama are both 5-1; Tennessee is 4-1.
Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia are all 4-2.
Last 4 years, Arkansas was 95-42, 41-30 in SEC; this year, they’re 10-9, 1-5.
Bracketology has seven SEC teams in, with Ole Miss/Florida near-misses.

Big East
Big East teams are rebounding 30.1% of their misses, #7 in country.
Big East teams are shooting 75.3% on foul line, best in country.
Defending national champ UConn is 7-1 in conference games.
Creighton/Seton Hall are 6-3; Marquette is 5-3.
In Jay Wright’s last nine years, Villanova was 263-53, 130-31 in conference.
In 1.5 years since Wright retired, Villanova is 28-25, 14-14 in conference.

Big X
Big X teams are playing 5th-slowest tempo in country.
Big X teams are shooting 33.2% on the arc (#24)
Texas Tech is 4-1 in Big X; four other teams are 4-2.
Four new teams in the Big X this year are 11-13 in league games.
Bracketology has six teams in, with Texas/TCU in the play-in games
Last 3 years, Oklahoma State was 27-27 in Big X; they’re 0-6 this year.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, January 27

Saturday’s 5 interesting games
Georgetown
@ Providence (-11.5)
Georgetown (8-11, 1-7)
KenPom rating: 178
Tempo: 248
Experience: 96
Continuity: 320
Georgetown is 0-4 SU/3-1 ATS on Big East road, losing by 10-30-1-13.
Opponents are shooting 54.5% inside arc (#320).
Hoyas are #300 team on defensive boards.
Georgetown is 0-10 vs top 100 teams.


Providence (13-6, 4-4)
KenPom rating: 47
Tempo: 155
Experience: 122
Continuity: 167
Providence won its last two games, after an 0-4 skid.
Providence has #10 eFG% defense in country.
Friars are 1-2 ATS as a Big East home favorite.
Friars are 8-0 vs teams outside the top 100.


Ed Cooley coached Providence the last 12 years.
This game is his return to Providence.
Providence won four in row, 10 of last 13 series games.
Hoyas lost last two visits to Providence, by 8-12 points.
Big East double digit home favorites are 2-7 ATS.


North Carolina (-6.5) @ Florida State
North Carolina (16-3, 8-0)
KenPom rating: 6
Tempo: 146
Experience: 6
Continuity: 187
North Carolina is 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS in ACC games
UNC’s ACC road wins are by 13-10-13-10 points.
Carolina has #12 eFG% defense in country.
North Carolina is 9-3 against teams ranked in top 100.


Florida State (12-7, 6-2)
KenPom rating: 75
Tempo: 41
Experience: 87
Continuity: 102
Florida State won six of its last seven games.
Seminoles are 3-2 ATS as an ACC underdog, 1-1 at home.
FSU is forcing turnovers 21.1% of time (#30)
Seminoles are 2-4 vs top 50 teams.


Teams split their last eight meetings.
Tar Heels lost three of last four visits to Tallahassee.
ACC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 4-9 ATS.


Auburn (-2.5) @ Mississippi State
Auburn (16-3, 5-1)
KenPom rating: 4
Tempo: 75
Experience: 120
Continuity: 83
Auburn won 11 of its last 12 games.
Auburn’s five SEC wins were all by 11+ points.
Tigers have #3 eFG% defense in the country.
Tigers are 7-3 vs teams ranked in top 100.


Mississippi State (13-6, 2-4)
KenPom rating: 37
Tempo: 198
Experience: 55
Continuity: 44
Miss State lost four of its last six games.
MSU is shooting 30.2% on arc, 59.6% on line in SEC tilts.
SEC foes are shooting 54.7% inside arc vs MSU (#14 of 14)
Miss State is 5-4 against teams in top 100.


Auburn won last five series games.
Tigers won last two visits to Starkville, by 12-13 points.
SEC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-3 ATS.


TCU @ Baylor (-4.5)
TCU (14-5, 3-3)
KenPom rating: 26
Tempo: 58
Experience: 3
Continuity: 142
TCU split its last six games, after an 11-2 start.
TCU’s Big X losses are by 1-2-4 points.
Horned Frogs are 2-5 vs teams ranked in top 100.
TCU is forcing turnovers 21.2% of time (#29)


Baylor (14-4, 3-2)
KenPom rating: 14
Tempo: 240
Experience: 99
Continuity: 232
Baylor lost its last two games, by 4-2 points.
Bears are shooting 42.1% on the arc (#1)
Baylor is 5-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Bears are #22 team in country on offensive boards.


Baylor won six of last eight series games.
TCU lost three of last four visits to Waco.
Big X home favorites of 5 or fewer points are 7-10 ATS.


Arizona (-3.5) @ Oregon
Arizona (14-5, 5-3)
KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 14
Experience: 90
Continuity: 219
Arizona is 6-5 in its last 11 games, after an 8-0 start.
Wildcats are #8 team in country on offensive boards.
Wildcats are 7-4 vs teams ranked in top 100.
Arizona is 0-4 when it allows 83+ points.


Oregon (14-5, 6-2)
KenPom rating: 51
Tempo: 163
Experience: 160
Continuity: 268
Oregon lost 2 of last 3 games, after a 13-3 start.
Oregon is 5-4 vs teams ranked in top 100
Ducks are 3-1 ATS as a Pac-12 underdog.
Ducks are shooting 37.6% on the arc (#29)


Oregon won eight of last ten series games.
Arizona lost its last six visits to Eugene.
Pac-12 home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-6 ATS.
 

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Saturday, January 27


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