Celtics: A
Dealing Smart is a tough look for a franchise big on loyalty, but adding Porzingis and two first-round picks is a great haul. The Celtics are getting out of Smart’s contract, and they have capable guards in Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon. They can also add a guard in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft with the No. 25 pick. If Boston extends Porzingis as a reasonable number, this will be an A+.
Wizards: B-
The Wizards do get a young point guard on an expiring deal in Jones, who they can flip at the deadline. The expiring contracts of Gallinari and Muscala can also be moved if needed. The Wizards also get a second-round pick, but that doesn’t have as much value as getting a reset on the cap sheet. The draft capital is a little weak but the overall objective of the teardown is being achieved for Washington’s front office.
Grizzlies: C
Smart is a solid replacement for Ja Morant, who is suspended for 25 games. The fit together when Morant comes back is a bit up in the air. Giving up Jones and two first-round picks in the deal is a big price to play for Smart, especially since his offense is inconsistent. Memphis clearly valued his veteran leadership, but this is a steep price to pay for it.
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Tracking all trades in the 2023 NBA Draft
We’re recapping every deal made for the 2023 NBA Draft on Thursday night.
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NBA trade rumors: Which Trail Blazers guard is most likely to be dealt?
Portland has four high-usage guards on the roster, setting up a scenario where at least one likely gets traded.
With the conclusion of the 2023 NBA Draft, the focus in the league now shifts to free agency and the possibility of bigger trades. As the new league year begins and a new CBA comes into play July 1, some teams will be looking to make moves to improve their short-term prospects while not completely sacrificing their long-term plans.
One such team trying to thread that needle is the Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, making it the first time in Damian Lillard’s career he’s missed postseason play in back-to-back years. Lillard is the franchise’s icon, and he’s been in trade rumors over the last few years as he enters the final stage of his career. The point guard is on a huge contract and has a $63 million player option for the 2026-27 season, so the Trail Blazers seemingly would need to make moves now to avoid being hamstrung too much by the salary cap later on in this deal.
Lillard has reportedly given the team a chance to improve the roster before demanding a trade. The guard has been diplomatic for the last few seasons about the performance of the team, but even he is slowly realizing he may need to leave in order to have a serious chance at a ring. The Blazers took guard Scoot Henderson with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, giving the team four high-usage guards. We’ll take a look at each player and the likelihood he gets dealt this summer.
Damian Lillard
Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game last season. His usage rate was 33.8%, which is also a career high. The guard will be 33 entering the 2023-24 season, so he’s theoretically a bit past his peak but still very much considered a star. Injuries have been a concern over the last few seasons with Lillard, but the Blazers have also shut him down when they realized they were out of contention.
Both Portland and Lillard, from all the reporting, want to avoid a split. Unless Lillard demands a trade, the Blazers aren’t going to deal him. And Lillard likely won’t do that barring an offseason where the team makes no moves. Portland is unlikely to run things back with this roster as currently constructed, so the likelihood Lillard gets dealt is probably around 5%.
Anfernee Simons
The rising guard had a career-high 21.1 points per game. He’s a lethal three-point shooter and has maintained a good percentage with an uptick in volume. At 24, Simons likely has a few more seasons to develop. His 25.1% usage rate is a bit problematic in the context of the team, especially if Henderson and Sharpe getting more touches is a priority for Portland. Simons is also a negative defender by every metric, which makes him likely to dealt. His contract is sizable but not a hinderance in trade negotiations. There’s a belief he can take a step forward as a lead guard, which makes him appealing to teams. The likelihood Simons gets dealt is at 50%.
Shaedon Sharpe
In his final 10 games of the season. Sharpe averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 46% from the floor and 37.8% from deep. That’s an encouraging sign for the Blazers regarding his development, although Portland went just 2-8 in those games. The team is unlikely to give him up, and his trade value is hard to gauge since he didn’t have a big role until the end of the season when the team was out of contention and basically trotting out G League lineups. The likelihood he gets dealt is somewhere around 15%.
Scoot Henderson
Henderson is considered by many to be the second-best prospect in the draft, and he’s got the tools to be a lead guard for any team. The Blazers have reportedly said they believe the addition of Henderson would be more impactful than any other move they could’ve made with the No. 3 overall pick. Defensively, Henderson could make an immediate impact for Portland in the backcourt. He’s a good trade chip and teams will want him if they are taking on salary in a trade, but the Blazers value him highly. The likelihood he gets dealt is 5%.
The most likely outcome for the Trail Blazers next season is a three-guard lineup with Lillard, Henderson and Sharpe. Jerami Grant is a priority in free agency, and the Blazers won’t be operating as a team over the second apron in the new CBA. That means they can package Simons and Jusuf Nurkic in trades, and take on more salary than they are sending out. The question is whether there’s a player out there who not only fits Lillard’s timeline to compete but also fits the roster. The Blazers can’t trade their 2024 or 2025 first-round pick, but they have their full arsenal of first-round picks after that.
Deandre Ayton and John Collins feel like the most logical trade targets, but the Blazers could aim bigger by inquiring about Pascal Siakam and Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic would have to come in a sign-and-trade agreement, since he’s a free agent. If Zion Williamson becomes available, that’s another player the Blazers could look into acquiring.
The Los Angeles Clippers were briefly part of a three-team trade in which they would’ve gotten Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt to shore up the guard rotation, but they ultimately backed out of the deal due to health concerns surrounding the Celtics guard. The Clippers have much bigger health concerns to deal with as the 2023-24 league year gets set to kick in, and those concerns are with their superstar duo Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Leonard and George teamed up in the summer of 2019, creating what many around the league believed the best star tandem. The forwards cost the Clippers most of their draft picks for the foreseeable future, and reshaped the organization’s focus towards a constant search for improvement on the fringes. LA has surrounding Leonard and George with a group of competent, versatile players but it’s the star duo which has not been able to deliver for the franchise.
In four seasons with the team, Leonard has not played 60 or more games in a single season. He sat out the entire 2021-22 season recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in the 2020-21 playoffs. The Clippers have made accommodations for him in terms of load management, allowing him to sit on back-to-back sets and take some days off. However, that strategy was accepted with the belief Leonard would then be at 100% for the postseason. Leonard has played in 26 playoff games for the Clippers across three postseasons, suffering injuries in two of those runs.
George has broken down as well, which was the more unexpected development. He has played more than 55 games just once in four seasons, but he was usually reliable for the playoffs. George has played in 32 playoff games in two postseasons, and would’ve built on that number if not for a bad knee injury ahead of the 2023 playoffs.
It’s reasonable for the Clippers to believe they can win a title when both players are healthy. Three of their five games against the Suns were decided by two possessions, with LA winning one. It’s not far-fetched to think the team could’ve pushed that series to the brink and even won if Leonard and George were on the floor. There’s been some bad luck as well, with the Clippers blowing multiple double-digit leads in their 3-1 collapse in the bubble. George was ruled out of a play-in game due to COVID-19, costing the team that postseason run as well.
On the flip side, George is 33 entering the 2023-24 season. Leonard will be 32. Both have $48.7 million player options for the 2024-25 year, which means they can both be free agents barring long-term extensions with LA. The Clippers won’t want to part ways with them but there has to be some sort of acknowledgement when it comes to games missed. If there’s no agreement or compromise, that opens up the trade market for both players.
The Clippers have already had talks surrounding George with the Knicks, although nothing materialized from that conversation per reports. Leonard’s trade value is more tricky, largely because he’s been less healthy. The Knicks, Heat, Pelicans and Hawks would all be good fits for either player, and both have the assets to make a deal. We’ll see how the Clippers handle their stars in the coming months.
Leonard and George teamed up in the summer of 2019, creating what many around the league believed the best star tandem. The forwards cost the Clippers most of their draft picks for the foreseeable future, and reshaped the organization’s focus towards a constant search for improvement on the fringes. LA has surrounding Leonard and George with a group of competent, versatile players but it’s the star duo which has not been able to deliver for the franchise.
In four seasons with the team, Leonard has not played 60 or more games in a single season. He sat out the entire 2021-22 season recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in the 2020-21 playoffs. The Clippers have made accommodations for him in terms of load management, allowing him to sit on back-to-back sets and take some days off. However, that strategy was accepted with the belief Leonard would then be at 100% for the postseason. Leonard has played in 26 playoff games for the Clippers across three postseasons, suffering injuries in two of those runs.
George has broken down as well, which was the more unexpected development. He has played more than 55 games just once in four seasons, but he was usually reliable for the playoffs. George has played in 32 playoff games in two postseasons, and would’ve built on that number if not for a bad knee injury ahead of the 2023 playoffs.
It’s reasonable for the Clippers to believe they can win a title when both players are healthy. Three of their five games against the Suns were decided by two possessions, with LA winning one. It’s not far-fetched to think the team could’ve pushed that series to the brink and even won if Leonard and George were on the floor. There’s been some bad luck as well, with the Clippers blowing multiple double-digit leads in their 3-1 collapse in the bubble. George was ruled out of a play-in game due to COVID-19, costing the team that postseason run as well.
On the flip side, George is 33 entering the 2023-24 season. Leonard will be 32. Both have $48.7 million player options for the 2024-25 year, which means they can both be free agents barring long-term extensions with LA. The Clippers won’t want to part ways with them but there has to be some sort of acknowledgement when it comes to games missed. If there’s no agreement or compromise, that opens up the trade market for both players.
The Clippers have already had talks surrounding George with the Knicks, although nothing materialized from that conversation per reports. Leonard’s trade value is more tricky, largely because he’s been less healthy. The Knicks, Heat, Pelicans and Hawks would all be good fits for either player, and both have the assets to make a deal. We’ll see how the Clippers handle their stars in the coming months.
The Atlanta Hawks have traded John Collins to the Utah Jazz, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The Jazz will send veteran guard Rudy Gay and a future second-round pick to the Hawks as part of the deal.
We’ll offer our instant grade of the deal below.
This trade is effectively a salary dump for the Hawks as they only got back an over-the-hill veteran in Gay along with a future second rounder. But that’s a good thing for a franchise that is trying to retool some things under new head coach Quin Snyder and general manager Landry Fields. Finally getting Collins off the books gives them more flexibility to make appropriate roster moves that will help them compete.
Also, this is technically somewhat of homecoming for Collins. He was born at Hill Air Force Base in nearby Layton, UT, while his mom was stationed there.
We’ll offer our instant grade of the deal below.
Hawks: B+
After years of seemingly never-ending trade rumors, Atlanta has finally shipped off Collins and his contract worth $78 million for another three seasons. The veteran forward’s stats have regressed each year since the 2019-20 season and there has always been speculation of behind-the-scenes tension between himself and star point guard Trae Young.This trade is effectively a salary dump for the Hawks as they only got back an over-the-hill veteran in Gay along with a future second rounder. But that’s a good thing for a franchise that is trying to retool some things under new head coach Quin Snyder and general manager Landry Fields. Finally getting Collins off the books gives them more flexibility to make appropriate roster moves that will help them compete.
Jazz: B
Utah gave up little in this trade and get to kick the tires on a forward that could be of use in its rebuild. Collins’ regression over the past few years has been noticeable, but he’s still only 25 years old with plenty of years left in his career and a change of scenery could give him a spark. As Woj mentioned in his tweet thread, the Jazz now have a formidable frontcourt with Lauri Markkannen and Walker Kessler along with Collins.Also, this is technically somewhat of homecoming for Collins. He was born at Hill Air Force Base in nearby Layton, UT, while his mom was stationed there.
Golden State Warriors power forward Draymond Green, one of the fixtures of the franchise’s current dynasty, has declined his player option for the 2023-24 season and will test free agency. Green and the Warriors are hoping for a reunion, but the possibility of him leaving certainly exists.
Green was in hot water before the 2022-23 season began after he punched Jordan Poole in practice. Video of the incident was leaked, and Green’s reputation was sealed. The Warriors battled through adversity and inconsistent play to make the postseason, but the fabric of the 2022 championship was no longer there. We’ll see if Green is able to get another opportunity to redeem himself and chase another championship in Golden State.
Green was in hot water before the 2022-23 season began after he punched Jordan Poole in practice. Video of the incident was leaked, and Green’s reputation was sealed. The Warriors battled through adversity and inconsistent play to make the postseason, but the fabric of the 2022 championship was no longer there. We’ll see if Green is able to get another opportunity to redeem himself and chase another championship in Golden State.
Best landing spots for Draymond Green
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors traded Poole ahead of free agency, landing point guard Chris Paul in the deal. With Poole gone, bringing Green back appears to be a foregone conclusion. Golden State has always been aware of the double-edged sword Green is, and it has helped the franchise capture four championships since 2014-15. This is the best fit for Green as well, since he’s not going to be tasked with doing more than he needs to.San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs might not want to expose Victor Wembanyama to a personality like Green, but the two would fit supremely well together. Green would be a nice veteran presence for the other Spurs as well, who now have some expectations with Wembanyama coming into the fold. He’s not the typical player San Antonio recruits but it’s been a decade since the franchise was at the top of the NBA mountain. Perhaps Green is the change the team needs.Detroit Pistons
Green would get to return home to Michigan and act as the leader for a rising Pistons squad. Detroit’s frontcourt could use Green as an example, and the team also has a need at the power forward spot. Jaden Ivey and Green would be devastating in the pick-and-roll offensively, and the Pistons should have the cap space to make a competitive offer to the defensive star.Sam Amick of The Athletic reported that Damian Lillard has serious interest in joining the Miami Heat if a trade were to occur:
Feb 6, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) dribbles the ball against Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports (NBA News)
The Milwaukee Bucks finished the 2022-23 regular season with the best record in the NBA and the #1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference. However, after a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury and a few poor showings, the Heat eliminated the Bucks in the very first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs. The Heat would eventually lose to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
The Heat acquiring Damian Lillard would catapult them to the top of pre-season rankings as far as the Eastern Conference goes. The Bucks seemed to be outmatched by a younger and faster Miami Heat team at times. Lillard would bring a different dynamic to the team that they didn’t have last year, most notably, another elite scorer.
After the Bucks missed out on Bradley Beal (as well), multiple other players have surfaced as possible additions that could help Milwaukee win their second championship in four years. One thing seems likely, however, the Bucks will need to get past the Miami Heat at some point during the 2023-24 season if they want to get back to the promised land.
As previously mentioned, the Blazers are currently shutting down anyone that tries to call on Lillard and there’s no telling on how long that will be the case for, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. That being said, Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler reportedly has been recruiting Lillard this offseason. Getting Lillard to Miami seems to be a priority this offseason after they lost out on the Bradley Beal sweepstakes. Miami was long linked to Bradley Beal, but the Washington Wizards dealt Beal to the Phoenix Suns to allow him to team up with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
How Would The Miami Heat Trading For Damian Lillard Impact The Milwaukee Bucks? (NBA News)
The Milwaukee Bucks finished the 2022-23 regular season with the best record in the NBA and the #1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference. However, after a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury and a few poor showings, the Heat eliminated the Bucks in the very first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs. The Heat would eventually lose to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
The Heat acquiring Damian Lillard would catapult them to the top of pre-season rankings as far as the Eastern Conference goes. The Bucks seemed to be outmatched by a younger and faster Miami Heat team at times. Lillard would bring a different dynamic to the team that they didn’t have last year, most notably, another elite scorer.
After the Bucks missed out on Bradley Beal (as well), multiple other players have surfaced as possible additions that could help Milwaukee win their second championship in four years. One thing seems likely, however, the Bucks will need to get past the Miami Heat at some point during the 2023-24 season if they want to get back to the promised land.
On Friday, June 30 at 6 p.m ET, the moratorium period begins. During this time, teams and players can agree to contracts which will be finalized on July 6. I’ll be grading all of the major deals that break live Friday night on the DK Nation Twitter account, so stay tuned for that.
In the meantime, let’s make some predictions.
While the 2023 free agency class lacks the typical elite talent at the top of the board, there are still plenty of big-time players who can immediately help teams contend. In this article, I’m going to predict landing spots for the top 10 free agents on the board.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753970/1480447794.jpg "Sacramento Kings v Dallas Mavericks")
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Irving finds himself in an interesting situation.
The All-Star’s talent is undeniable, but his track record with the Nets, Celtics, and Cavs – every team he’s played with, basically – has left a majority of the league wary of pursuing him.
That being said, the Mavericks can’t afford to be picky. Dallas shipped out valuable assets to acquire Kyrie prior to last year’s trade deadline. While that obviously didn’t work out, resulting in a late-season collapse, Mark Cuban and Nico Harrison almost HAVE to re-sign Irving and give it another try.
Production was not the issue with Kyrie in Dallas, as he averaged 26.9 points, 6.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds as a Maverick. The fit alongside Luka Doncic is certainly questionable, but at the end of the day, talent wins in this league.
The only other “contender” for Kyrie feels like the Lakers due to Irving’s obvious history with LeBron James. However, L.A. doesn’t even seem like a realistic landing spot for the star guard due to financial restrictions.
It’s typically smart to expect the unexpected when it comes to Irving, but this time, all signs point towards a return to Texas.
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Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
For a long time, it felt like a return to Houston was inevitable for the Beard. It’s clearly the place Harden enjoys being the most, along with the fact that he found immense individual success there.
However, over the last few weeks, the narrative surrounding his free agency plans have drastically shifted. Multiple reports from respected sources have implied that Harden will likely return to Philadelphia for another shot at contending with Joel Embiid.
I don’t necessarily think it’s the done deal that some believe it to be, as the Rockets will probably make a pitch of some sorts to their former superstar. That said, in the end, Harden’s drive to compete for a championship should result in him running it back with the Sixers.
I wouldn’t expect a traditional four-year max contract for Harden. We’ve heard reports of a team-friendly deal being discussed, so something short-term seems realistic.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753962/1482069424.jpg "Chicago Bulls v Toronto Raptors")
Photo by Andrew Lahodynskyj/Getty Images
This is where things start to get interesting. Both Irving and Harden are widely expected to re-sign with their current teams, but VanVleet’s prospects appear to be completely up in the air.
There’s always a chance he returns to Toronto, but it feels like it’s time for both sides to part ways. For a while, the thought of landing with a contender seemed realistic for the 29-year-old point guard. However, the number of good teams with cap space is slim, so it would likely have to be a sign-and-trade.
While that’s not completely out of the question, I actually think VanVleet’s chances of landing with a “bad team” on a short-term, high AAV (Average Annual Value) deal are much stronger.
The Rockets have been linked to him for a while now, with new coach Ime Udoka reportedly “coveting” the veteran guard.
I understand the fit may not make a ton of sense on paper after the Rockets selected Amen Thompson fourth overall in the NBA Draft last week. Thompson is widely believed to be the point guard of the future in Houston, but learning under a veteran with championship experience for two-three years could be extremely beneficial for his development.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753960/1485119184.jpg "Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat - Game Four")
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
I’ve changed my prediction for Middleton three times since I began constructing this article, which demonstrates how real the possibility of him leaving Milwaukee is.
The soon-to-be 32-year-old turned down a $40 million player option, which was… a decision. His camp must feel like a massive long-term contract is out there. That could be true, but declining $40 million after averaging just 15.1 points per game throughout an injury-riddled season is certainly a bold decision.
All of that said, I expect multiple teams to be heavily interested in the veteran wing this offseason. Milwaukee would obviously love to bring him back, but he could also be an intriguing fit for Sacramento or Houston for a myriad of reasons.
The Kings could look at Middleton as the perfect final piece for their puzzle, and the Rockets could perceive him as an ideal veteran leader to kickstart their rebuild.
In the end, I think familiarity and comfort will win out.
Middleton has spent the last 10 years in Milwaukee. He’s built lasting connections there, has started a family in the city, and also won a championship just a few years ago. It’s important to remember the personal aspect of these decisions for players, and in this case, I expect it to play a significant role in his final call.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753957/1248580237.jpg "Sacramento Kings v Washington Wizards")
Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images
It feels like the Kings are primed to do SOMETHING big after opening up a ton of cap space by offloading Richaun Holmes’ contract.
First thing’s first, I’ll acknowledge that Kuzma’s fit in Sacramento likely wouldn’t be as seamless as Khris Middleton or Draymond Green. However, he will probably be cheaper, and he absolutely fits the Kings’ timeline.
Despite bowing out in the first round to Golden State, the Kings’ front office has to be thrilled with the progress they saw over the course of last season. De’Aaron Fox took the next step and was statistically the most clutch player in the NBA. Domantas Sabonis led the league in rebounds and established himself as one of the most dominant centers in the league. Keegan Murray looked terrific as a rookie, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk excelled in their roles, etc.
However, one thing this team clearly needs is a third-option wing who can create his own shot consistently. That’s where Kuzma steps in.
The 27-year-old forward averaged a career-high 21.2 points per game in Washington last season. Efficiency isn’t necessarily his strong suit, but he would fill an obvious need on this roster and does have plenty of experience playing alongside other stars.
Kuzma could be the last piece of the puzzle as the Kings look to finally earn their status as a contender.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753956/1489027980.jpg "Los Angeles Lakers v Golden State Warriors - Game Five")
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
This feels like it’s down to a two-horse race, and in reality, one horse is MILES ahead of the other.
In fact, I’m calling the race. It’s over.
The concept of Green to Sacramento is intriguing, and I’m sure the Kings would love to add him to their already-fantastic core, but it’s just not realistic. Draymond has spent his entire career in Golden State, and has enjoyed enormous success there.
I would understand him moving on if the Warriors were pivoting towards a complete rebuild, but the acquisition of Chris Paul indicates the exact opposite. It feels like new GM Mike Dunleavy is entirely comfortably giving his aging core another year or two to contend before breaking it up.
The Warriors are in a tricky financial situation, to say the least, but swapping Jordan Poole for Paul does give them a bit of long-term flexibility to work with. I’m not sure exactly what the money will look like, but it would be a massive shock if Green is in a different jersey next year.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24755280/1474263642.jpg "Portland Trail Blazers v Philadelphia 76ers")
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
All eyes were on Damian Lillard’s meeting with Portland’s front office Monday afternoon, and while we haven’t heard an official statement from Dame, it sounds like both his and the Blazers’ stance has not changed.
The superstar’s decision will certainly play a role in how Grant’s free agency shakes out, but even if Lillard requests a trade, I think a return to Portland makes sense for Grant.
The versatile wing enjoyed tremendous individual success with the Blazers, putting together arguably the best season of his career in 2022. He has found his role alongside Lillard in this system, and while I’m sure he’d prefer Dame to stay, if he demands a trade it would only mean more offensive opportunities for Grant.
It may not be a full four-year deal, but I expect Grant to stay in a familiar situation this offseason.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753947/1482949548.jpg "Chicago Bulls v Miami Heat - Play-In Tournament")
Photo by Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images
Does it feel like the Bulls are only going to re-sign Vucevic because they traded away valuable assets for him? Yes.
Would I recommend that strategy? No.
That said, there’s a reason Artūras Karnišovas is making that decision and I’m not. It feels like Chicago is headed towards a reboot of sorts instead of a full rebuild, and that plan includes re-signing Vucevic and probably trading one of their other star wings to mix up the core.
Now, if a bad team throws a ton of money at Vuc, he could certainly accept it. The veteran big man spent most of his career on a non-contender in Orlando, there’s always a chance he could want another opportunity like that with minimal pressure. All signs point to him enjoying Chicago though, so that’s where I believe he’ll stay on a new contract.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753941/1492467213.jpg "Denver Nuggets v Los Angeles Lakers - Game Four")
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
This is a fun one.
Reaves broke out for the Lakers this season, so much so that he may have played his way out of their price range. Marc Stein reported late Monday night that the Lakers were “a lock” to match any offer sheet Reaves signs. While I have all the respect in the world for Stein’s reporting, I’ll believe that when I see it.
Now, I still think the Lakers would love to have him back, that’s not the issue. But for players like Reaves who are clearly not max-worthy, there’s always a limit teams will hit when matching offer sheets.
Unfortunately for the Lakers – and fortunately for Reaves — there are quite a few teams that could feasibly throw an absurd amount of money at him this offseason. Two of the squads in Texas come to mind, and I think Gregg Popovich could see him as a perfect fit in his system.
At just 25 years old, Reaves fits San Antonio’s timeline, and he also plays incredibly unselfish basketball. Both of those qualities, among others, make him a strong potential pick-and-roll partner with Victor Wembanyama.
I expect the Lakers to have a very difficult decision on their hands, but the Spurs can offer Reaves a contract — four years, nearly $100 million — that just doesn’t make sense to match.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24753936/1252092072.jpg "2023 NBA Playoffs Game Three - Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat")
Photo by Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images
While it feels like there’s a real chance that Milwaukee loses both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez this season, the possibility of Lopez leaving is much stronger than Middleton.
The veteran big man rejuvenated his career in Milwaukee and has set himself up nicely to command a decent-sized contract. Pretty much every team in the league would love to have a DPOY-caliber 7-footer who is capable of hitting threes consistently, regardless of his age.
The appeal of staying in Milwaukee and contending for a championship will certainly be enticing for Lopez, but Houston can offer him much more than the Bucks. A lot of the time, if the gap between money in offers isn’t that steep, players will choose to remain with their current team.
However, in this case, the gap between money in Houston and Milwaukee’s offers could be significant.
In the meantime, let’s make some predictions.
While the 2023 free agency class lacks the typical elite talent at the top of the board, there are still plenty of big-time players who can immediately help teams contend. In this article, I’m going to predict landing spots for the top 10 free agents on the board.
1. Kyrie Irving
Potential Suitors: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers
Irving finds himself in an interesting situation.
The All-Star’s talent is undeniable, but his track record with the Nets, Celtics, and Cavs – every team he’s played with, basically – has left a majority of the league wary of pursuing him.
That being said, the Mavericks can’t afford to be picky. Dallas shipped out valuable assets to acquire Kyrie prior to last year’s trade deadline. While that obviously didn’t work out, resulting in a late-season collapse, Mark Cuban and Nico Harrison almost HAVE to re-sign Irving and give it another try.
Production was not the issue with Kyrie in Dallas, as he averaged 26.9 points, 6.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds as a Maverick. The fit alongside Luka Doncic is certainly questionable, but at the end of the day, talent wins in this league.
The only other “contender” for Kyrie feels like the Lakers due to Irving’s obvious history with LeBron James. However, L.A. doesn’t even seem like a realistic landing spot for the star guard due to financial restrictions.
It’s typically smart to expect the unexpected when it comes to Irving, but this time, all signs point towards a return to Texas.
Prediction: Irving re-signs with the Mavericks
2. James Harden
Potential Suitors: Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets
For a long time, it felt like a return to Houston was inevitable for the Beard. It’s clearly the place Harden enjoys being the most, along with the fact that he found immense individual success there.
However, over the last few weeks, the narrative surrounding his free agency plans have drastically shifted. Multiple reports from respected sources have implied that Harden will likely return to Philadelphia for another shot at contending with Joel Embiid.
I don’t necessarily think it’s the done deal that some believe it to be, as the Rockets will probably make a pitch of some sorts to their former superstar. That said, in the end, Harden’s drive to compete for a championship should result in him running it back with the Sixers.
I wouldn’t expect a traditional four-year max contract for Harden. We’ve heard reports of a team-friendly deal being discussed, so something short-term seems realistic.
Prediction: Harden re-signs with the 76ers
3. Fred VanVleet
Potential Suitors: Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets
This is where things start to get interesting. Both Irving and Harden are widely expected to re-sign with their current teams, but VanVleet’s prospects appear to be completely up in the air.
There’s always a chance he returns to Toronto, but it feels like it’s time for both sides to part ways. For a while, the thought of landing with a contender seemed realistic for the 29-year-old point guard. However, the number of good teams with cap space is slim, so it would likely have to be a sign-and-trade.
While that’s not completely out of the question, I actually think VanVleet’s chances of landing with a “bad team” on a short-term, high AAV (Average Annual Value) deal are much stronger.
The Rockets have been linked to him for a while now, with new coach Ime Udoka reportedly “coveting” the veteran guard.
I understand the fit may not make a ton of sense on paper after the Rockets selected Amen Thompson fourth overall in the NBA Draft last week. Thompson is widely believed to be the point guard of the future in Houston, but learning under a veteran with championship experience for two-three years could be extremely beneficial for his development.
Prediction: VanVleet signs with the Rockets
4. Khris Middleton
Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Bucks, Sacramento Kings, Houston Rockets
I’ve changed my prediction for Middleton three times since I began constructing this article, which demonstrates how real the possibility of him leaving Milwaukee is.
The soon-to-be 32-year-old turned down a $40 million player option, which was… a decision. His camp must feel like a massive long-term contract is out there. That could be true, but declining $40 million after averaging just 15.1 points per game throughout an injury-riddled season is certainly a bold decision.
All of that said, I expect multiple teams to be heavily interested in the veteran wing this offseason. Milwaukee would obviously love to bring him back, but he could also be an intriguing fit for Sacramento or Houston for a myriad of reasons.
The Kings could look at Middleton as the perfect final piece for their puzzle, and the Rockets could perceive him as an ideal veteran leader to kickstart their rebuild.
In the end, I think familiarity and comfort will win out.
Middleton has spent the last 10 years in Milwaukee. He’s built lasting connections there, has started a family in the city, and also won a championship just a few years ago. It’s important to remember the personal aspect of these decisions for players, and in this case, I expect it to play a significant role in his final call.
Prediction: Middleton re-signs with the Bucks
5. Kyle Kuzma
Potential Suitors: Washington Wizards, Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings
It feels like the Kings are primed to do SOMETHING big after opening up a ton of cap space by offloading Richaun Holmes’ contract.
First thing’s first, I’ll acknowledge that Kuzma’s fit in Sacramento likely wouldn’t be as seamless as Khris Middleton or Draymond Green. However, he will probably be cheaper, and he absolutely fits the Kings’ timeline.
Despite bowing out in the first round to Golden State, the Kings’ front office has to be thrilled with the progress they saw over the course of last season. De’Aaron Fox took the next step and was statistically the most clutch player in the NBA. Domantas Sabonis led the league in rebounds and established himself as one of the most dominant centers in the league. Keegan Murray looked terrific as a rookie, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk excelled in their roles, etc.
However, one thing this team clearly needs is a third-option wing who can create his own shot consistently. That’s where Kuzma steps in.
The 27-year-old forward averaged a career-high 21.2 points per game in Washington last season. Efficiency isn’t necessarily his strong suit, but he would fill an obvious need on this roster and does have plenty of experience playing alongside other stars.
Kuzma could be the last piece of the puzzle as the Kings look to finally earn their status as a contender.
Prediction: Kuzma signs with the Kings
6. Draymond Green
Potential Suitors: Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings
This feels like it’s down to a two-horse race, and in reality, one horse is MILES ahead of the other.
In fact, I’m calling the race. It’s over.
The concept of Green to Sacramento is intriguing, and I’m sure the Kings would love to add him to their already-fantastic core, but it’s just not realistic. Draymond has spent his entire career in Golden State, and has enjoyed enormous success there.
I would understand him moving on if the Warriors were pivoting towards a complete rebuild, but the acquisition of Chris Paul indicates the exact opposite. It feels like new GM Mike Dunleavy is entirely comfortably giving his aging core another year or two to contend before breaking it up.
The Warriors are in a tricky financial situation, to say the least, but swapping Jordan Poole for Paul does give them a bit of long-term flexibility to work with. I’m not sure exactly what the money will look like, but it would be a massive shock if Green is in a different jersey next year.
Prediction: Green re-signs with the Warriors
7. Jerami Grant
Potential Suitors: Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, Orlando Magic
All eyes were on Damian Lillard’s meeting with Portland’s front office Monday afternoon, and while we haven’t heard an official statement from Dame, it sounds like both his and the Blazers’ stance has not changed.
The superstar’s decision will certainly play a role in how Grant’s free agency shakes out, but even if Lillard requests a trade, I think a return to Portland makes sense for Grant.
The versatile wing enjoyed tremendous individual success with the Blazers, putting together arguably the best season of his career in 2022. He has found his role alongside Lillard in this system, and while I’m sure he’d prefer Dame to stay, if he demands a trade it would only mean more offensive opportunities for Grant.
It may not be a full four-year deal, but I expect Grant to stay in a familiar situation this offseason.
Prediction: Grant re-signs with the Trail Blazers
8. Nikola Vucevic
Potential Suitors: Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets
Does it feel like the Bulls are only going to re-sign Vucevic because they traded away valuable assets for him? Yes.
Would I recommend that strategy? No.
That said, there’s a reason Artūras Karnišovas is making that decision and I’m not. It feels like Chicago is headed towards a reboot of sorts instead of a full rebuild, and that plan includes re-signing Vucevic and probably trading one of their other star wings to mix up the core.
Now, if a bad team throws a ton of money at Vuc, he could certainly accept it. The veteran big man spent most of his career on a non-contender in Orlando, there’s always a chance he could want another opportunity like that with minimal pressure. All signs point to him enjoying Chicago though, so that’s where I believe he’ll stay on a new contract.
Prediction: Vucevic re-signs with the Bulls
9. Austin Reaves
Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs
This is a fun one.
Reaves broke out for the Lakers this season, so much so that he may have played his way out of their price range. Marc Stein reported late Monday night that the Lakers were “a lock” to match any offer sheet Reaves signs. While I have all the respect in the world for Stein’s reporting, I’ll believe that when I see it.
Now, I still think the Lakers would love to have him back, that’s not the issue. But for players like Reaves who are clearly not max-worthy, there’s always a limit teams will hit when matching offer sheets.
Unfortunately for the Lakers – and fortunately for Reaves — there are quite a few teams that could feasibly throw an absurd amount of money at him this offseason. Two of the squads in Texas come to mind, and I think Gregg Popovich could see him as a perfect fit in his system.
At just 25 years old, Reaves fits San Antonio’s timeline, and he also plays incredibly unselfish basketball. Both of those qualities, among others, make him a strong potential pick-and-roll partner with Victor Wembanyama.
I expect the Lakers to have a very difficult decision on their hands, but the Spurs can offer Reaves a contract — four years, nearly $100 million — that just doesn’t make sense to match.
Prediction: Reaves signs with the Spurs
10. Brook Lopez
Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder
While it feels like there’s a real chance that Milwaukee loses both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez this season, the possibility of Lopez leaving is much stronger than Middleton.
The veteran big man rejuvenated his career in Milwaukee and has set himself up nicely to command a decent-sized contract. Pretty much every team in the league would love to have a DPOY-caliber 7-footer who is capable of hitting threes consistently, regardless of his age.
The appeal of staying in Milwaukee and contending for a championship will certainly be enticing for Lopez, but Houston can offer him much more than the Bucks. A lot of the time, if the gap between money in offers isn’t that steep, players will choose to remain with their current team.
However, in this case, the gap between money in Houston and Milwaukee’s offers could be significant.
