NBA Systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

new, hhh, and biz

OVER team off home 1 possession loss vs opponent off road 1 possession loss. 55-23-0, 2-1 (HOU/DET over 207.5)


PLAY ON great team off fav same-season loss to terrible team. 32-13 ATS (Houston)


UNDER lightly rested away team after home win or narrow loss scoring a lot of their points from FT line. 38-90-3 o/u (MIA/WAS under)


PLAY ON mediocre teams away on a winning streak in conference game. 102-56-2 ATS, 8-9-1 (Miami)


OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win. 99-44-3, 11-10 (Chicago)


OPPOSE home team with revenge after dog cover. 42-22 ATS, 4-4 (Utah)


PLAY ON away conf fav off non-cover vs home off cover. 151-90-5, 18-13 (Toronto)


OPPOSE and OVER home team after losing big HT lead
77-48-4 ATS, 9-7-1 (Sacramento)
83-44-2 o/u, 8-9 (ORL/SAC over)


note: Nets are 34-14 ATS vs Pacific
note: Kings are 24-11 o/u vs Southeast (applies today and tomorrow)

FRI
Houston -7
Miami +4.5
Chicago +6
Utah -7
Sacramento -1
Toronto - no longer fav so not a play
ORL/SAC over 203
MIA/WAS under 195
NETS/PHX over 208.5
HOU/DET over 207.5

 

[DT32]

Saturday

in 4/5 vs 4/5 play on the the team that was just at home vs opponent that is off away (24-10) - Rockets -5
Good three point shooting team with rest UNDER (72-146) - Wizards under 189
Oppose Saturday division home dogs, both team unrested (19-29) - Memphis -1

 

[Biz]

23: PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover: Dallas -7
ATS: 151-90-5 (62.7%)
Off Blowout Loss (> 10): 44-19-1 (69.8%)

38: PLAY ON mediocre teams away on a winning streak in a conf game: Charlotte +1
103-57-2 (64.4%)

34: Unders when both over .500, one in bad form, high total: Toronto/Oklahoma City Under 211.5
O/U: 18-37-2 (32.7%)

 

[rolltide]

Current Record: 264-239 (52.0%)
Sides: 151-140 (51.4%)
Totals: 113-99 (53.7%)

nothing on new or hhh or dan.

nice under shaping up for tomorrow with chi/mem. pretty rare one but two nice winning teams both in 5/7 spot is usually great for unders

for today just biz's...

 

[DT32]

Monday

Oppose away heavy schedule (12-24) - Miami (awaiting line)
Opppose home team after a dog win where they were outrebounded (37-77) - Wizards +1

 

[DT32]

Monday

Oppose away heavy schedule (12-24) - Miami -2.5
Opppose home team after a dog win where they were outrebounded (37-77) - Wizards +1

Oppose away heavy schedule (12-24) - Miami -2.5

 

[rolltide]

Current Record: 265-240 (52.0%)
Sides: 152-140 (51.4%)
Totals: 113-100 (53.7%)

new + hhh

OPPOSE home dogs after away game in diff time zone vs away fav that was home in same time zone last game. (Golden State -5)


OPPOSE winning home dog of 3+ points after away loss. 75-30-1 ATS, 6-2 (Golden State -5, Memphis -5.5)


PLAY ON big away dog went over by 40+ in L5 games vs fav that went under by 27+ L5. 1-3 2015 (Sacramento +11)


UNDER game 11+ very tired elite team in 5/7 spot playing elite opponent. 30-73-1 o/u (CHI/MEM under 185)
subset: other team also in 5/7. 8-26 o/u (CHI/MEM under 185)
subset 2: home team off an over. 13-37-1 (CHI/MEM under 185)


UNDER home team exactly 1 game rest after road trip vs team with 1 game rest. 26-59 o/u, 8-12 o/u (PHX/GS under 214)

 

[rolltide]

missed one that cancels GS


PLAY ON great offensive dogs of 3+ that were down big at HT last game. 65-25-2 ATS, 6-1 (Phoenix +5)
subset: home dog just 12-8 ATS (away dog 53-17-2)

 

[Biz]

40: Memphis -5.5
44: Atlanta -11
23: Golden St -5

Gotta run, but those are the 3 plays from my group.

 

[rolltide]

thx biz

MON:
Miami -2.5
Memphis -5.5
CHI/MEM under 185
PHX/GS under 214

 

[rolltide]

sorry missed dt's wizards...

Washington +1

 

[DT32]

Wednesday

Oppose away heavy schedule (13-24) - Sixers +6.5
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now playing non-conference OVER (73-36) - Hornets over 206
Team that lost a double digit lead last game, now playing non-conference OVER (115-58) - Hornets over 206

 

[rolltide]

UNDER & OPPOSE dog off way loss scoring far fewer points in Q4 vs Q1
total: 67-120-3 o/u, 12-23-2 o/u 2015 (MIN/PHX under 205)
side: 76-110-4 ATS, 14-23 2015, 7-0 L7 (Phoenix -5)


PLAY ON and UNDER well rested team on away trip before heavy scheduling kicks in
total: 42-70-3 o/u, 5-6-1 2015 (MEM/BOS under 189.5)
side: 75-40 ATS, 8-4 2015 (Memphis -5.5)


similar to above play on and under away fav before 4/5 spot starts.
total: 58-100-4 o/u, 7-8-1 2015 (MEM/BOS under 189.5)
side: 96-66 ATS, 9-7 2015 (Memphis -5.5)


probably not much value left in those unders which already moved 4 points but didn't have time to run earlier.....


team specific, not official plays
OVER Kings vs Southeast. 27-11, 4-1 (SAC/CHAR over)
PLAY ON Denver hosting Southeast. 37-17 ATS & 7-0 as home dog (Denver)

 

[DT32]

Thursday

Oppose away heavy schedule (14-24) - Wizards pk

 

[Biz]

nothing here

 

[DT32]

Friday

Oppose home team after a dog win where they were outrebounded (37-78) - Orlando +5
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now playing non-conference OVER (74-36) - Hawks over 204.5

 

[rolltide]

MON:

Kings OVER home vs unrested, 52-20-1 o/u. 6-3 o/u 2015 (ATL/SAC over)

UNDER unrested team off b2b big spread wins. 33-71-4 o/u, 9-15-1 o/u (POR/WAS under)

MON:
POR/WAS under 199
ATL/SAC over 207.5

 

[DT32]

MON:

Kings OVER home vs unrested, 52-20-1 o/u. 6-3 o/u 2015 (ATL/SAC over)

UNDER unrested team off b2b big spread wins. 33-71-4 o/u, 9-15-1 o/u (POR/WAS under)

MON:
POR/WAS under 199
ATL/SAC over 207.5

Tuesday

Oppose away heavy schedule (14-24) - Detroit +4.5

 

[Bishop987]

Tuesday

Oppose away heavy schedule (14-24) - Detroit +4.5

 

[rolltide]

WED:

OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win. 101-46-3 (Washington +3)


PLAY ON big dogs off a huge blowout loss vs opponent off b2b high scoring games. 70-34 ATS (Twolves +11, Magic +12.5)


OPPOSE home dogs of 3+ with decent record if they're off an away loss. 77-30-1 (Spurs -6)


PLAY ON small away fav after breaking a losing streak if they're allowing 100 ppg or less on season. 164-73-5 ATS (Pistons -1)


UNDER terrible team on a losing ATS streak vs a winning opponent. 32-71-1 o/u (MIN/TOR under 210)


UNDER unrested after playing Rockets away and not a blowout win. 8-39-1 o/u (ORL/DAL under 205.5)


OVER and OPPOSE Kings home vs unrested.
53-20-1 o/u (LAC/SAC over 212)
1-16-1 ATS (Clippers -9)