yes i know
what I'm saying is when you break it down just looking at home team coming back from away game in diff time zone there is no way some of these teams (like chicago last week, charlotte 2x the previous week) can be a fit. In that particular game it was totally wrong....first chicago didn't play in a previous time zone last game and, second, cleveland played EST the night before and then were CST in chicago. The system was to play on away fav of -2 or higher who stayed in same time zone from last game vs home team returning home from a different time zone. Pulling up CHI/CLE was actually the exact opposite on both sides.
Before the dbase switched the time zone parameters this system was tremendous and made a lot of sense. I have no idea what they've done to that parameter but it looks pretty useless at this point. sucks, but i have to toss that one to the curb. I guess I can do it manually from now on ....
1) look at away favs of -2 or higher
2) away fav played home in same time zone last game
3) home dog played away in different time zone last game
4) both teams NOT away two games ago
that is the main part of the system....the time of game and streaks helps to filter plays but the main 4 parameters are above.
you can use this query to at least narrow it down:
A and line < -1.5 and p:H and (pp:A and opp:A) = False and season>2009 and p:time of game < 158 and o:streak > -4 and streak > -2
from there just look up the time zone that the home dog played in the previous game (which was away of course) and if different than current game THEN it is a fit. I'll add this to my section
Friday
Home dog off an away loss where they shot poorly (22-42) - Miami -6 (KS has this line up, but I don't see it up anywhere yet)
Team lost a double digit lead last game, now playing non-conference OVER (113-56) - New Orleans Over 195
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now playing non-conference OVER (71-33) - New Orleans Over 195
Home dog off an away loss where they shot poorly (22-42) - Miami -6 (KS has this line up, but I don't see it up anywhere yet)
Team lost a double digit lead last game, now playing non-conference OVER (113-56) - New Orleans Over 195
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now playing non-conference OVER (71-33) - New Orleans Over 195
OPPOSE high scoring feb home dogs. 46-11 ATS (on Cleveland, on Brooklyn)
OPPOSE home dogs of 3+ with decent record off away loss. 73-30-1 ATS, 8-4 L12 (on Cleveland)
OVER well rested team off a horrible 3-point % shooting night with 20+ attempts. 71-28-1 o/u incl 8-1 o/u if rest>3 (ATL/TOR over, HOU/DAL over, GSW/SAS over, WAS/CLE over)
UNDER dog off way loss scoring far fewer points in Q4 vs Q1. 65-119-2 o/u incl 9-29 o/u if >1 rest. (WAS/CLE under, HOU/DAL under)
OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win. 97-41-3 ATS, 7-2 L9 (on Detroit)
OPPOSE home dogs of 3+ with decent record off away loss. 73-30-1 ATS, 8-4 L12 (on Cleveland)
OVER well rested team off a horrible 3-point % shooting night with 20+ attempts. 71-28-1 o/u incl 8-1 o/u if rest>3 (ATL/TOR over, HOU/DAL over, GSW/SAS over, WAS/CLE over)
UNDER dog off way loss scoring far fewer points in Q4 vs Q1. 65-119-2 o/u incl 9-29 o/u if >1 rest. (WAS/CLE under, HOU/DAL under)
OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win. 97-41-3 ATS, 7-2 L9 (on Detroit)
23: PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover: New Orleans -5.5, Cleveland -3
ATS: 147-83-5 (63.9%)
Non-Conf: 54-25-3 (68.4%)
29: OPPOSE and OVER home team after losing big HT lead: Toronto +5.5, Tor/Atl Over 205
ATS: 48-74-4 (39.3%)
O/U: 81-43-2 (65.3%)
ATS: 147-83-5 (63.9%)
Non-Conf: 54-25-3 (68.4%)
29: OPPOSE and OVER home team after losing big HT lead: Toronto +5.5, Tor/Atl Over 205
ATS: 48-74-4 (39.3%)
O/U: 81-43-2 (65.3%)
Tide,
Curious what filter you used to describe avg, Chicago is 34-20 (62.9%), Detroit 21-33 (38.8%).
ran the rest including biz's...
OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win 98-41-3 ATS, 5-0 L5 (on Charlotte +3.5)
PLAY ON home dog off a blowout fav loss facing a team they last played away. 43-11-1 ATS, on 13-0 streak (on Charlotte +3.5)
OVER february rested home team vs light rested away. 60-26-1 o/u 1-0 2015 with gsw last night (CHA/OKC over 194.5)
OPPOSE eastern dogs, high total, vs west. 67-34-4 ATS, 11-9-1 2015 (Houston -2.5)
PLAY ON great winning % team 2H season favored off a terrible loss. 89-36-4 ATS, 2-1 2015 (on Chicago -8)
UNDER both over .500 but one in bad form, high total. 15-35-2 o/u, 3-3 2015 (CHI/PHX under 204)
SAT:
Charlotte +3.5
Houston -2.5
Chicago -8
CHI/PHX under 204
NO/MIA over 189
CHA/OKC over 194.5
OPPOSE favs off a blowout win avg team vs avg team, opponent not off a blowout win 98-41-3 ATS, 5-0 L5 (on Charlotte +3.5)
PLAY ON home dog off a blowout fav loss facing a team they last played away. 43-11-1 ATS, on 13-0 streak (on Charlotte +3.5)
OVER february rested home team vs light rested away. 60-26-1 o/u 1-0 2015 with gsw last night (CHA/OKC over 194.5)
OPPOSE eastern dogs, high total, vs west. 67-34-4 ATS, 11-9-1 2015 (Houston -2.5)
PLAY ON great winning % team 2H season favored off a terrible loss. 89-36-4 ATS, 2-1 2015 (on Chicago -8)
UNDER both over .500 but one in bad form, high total. 15-35-2 o/u, 3-3 2015 (CHI/PHX under 204)
SAT:
Charlotte +3.5
Houston -2.5
Chicago -8
CHI/PHX under 204
NO/MIA over 189
CHA/OKC over 194.5
ran everything....
SUN:
Atlanta -4.5
Boston -2.5
Okla City -10
Portland -3.5
Charlotte +10
Washington -1.5
BOS/LAL under 200.5
NYK/CLE under 197
OPPOSE high scoring february home dogs. 48-11 ATS, 6-4 (Atlanta -4.5, Boston -2.5)
PLAY ON and UNDER well rested team on away trip before heavy scheduling kicks in
75-39-0 ATS, 8-3 (Boston -2.5)
41-70-3 o/u, 4-6-1 (BOS/LAL under 200.5)
PLAY ON away teams looking to avenge huge blowout loss vs home team off blowout home win. 50-20-1, 5-5 (Charlotte +10)
- subset, non conference game. 20-3-1 ATS (Charlotte +10)
PLAY ON midseason away dogs, bad team off noncover, vs winning team off cover with another home game coming. 160-87-4 ATS, 12-11 (Charlotte +10)
UNDER terrible team on ats losing streak vs winning team.31-70-1 o/u, 8-9 (NYK/CLE under 197)
PLAY ON team with a lot of rest in last 2 weeks that is off an away win scoring 109+. 80-37-2 (Okla City -10)
PLAY ON great team by winning % 2H season, favorite coming off terrible loss. 89-37-4 ATS, 2-2 (Portland -3.5)
PLAY ON away fav off non-cover blowout loss vs home off game they covered. 42-15-1 ATS, 10-5 (Washington -1.5)
SUN:
Atlanta -4.5
Boston -2.5
Okla City -10
Portland -3.5
Charlotte +10
Washington -1.5
BOS/LAL under 200.5
NYK/CLE under 197
OPPOSE high scoring february home dogs. 48-11 ATS, 6-4 (Atlanta -4.5, Boston -2.5)
PLAY ON and UNDER well rested team on away trip before heavy scheduling kicks in
75-39-0 ATS, 8-3 (Boston -2.5)
41-70-3 o/u, 4-6-1 (BOS/LAL under 200.5)
PLAY ON away teams looking to avenge huge blowout loss vs home team off blowout home win. 50-20-1, 5-5 (Charlotte +10)
- subset, non conference game. 20-3-1 ATS (Charlotte +10)
PLAY ON midseason away dogs, bad team off noncover, vs winning team off cover with another home game coming. 160-87-4 ATS, 12-11 (Charlotte +10)
UNDER terrible team on ats losing streak vs winning team.31-70-1 o/u, 8-9 (NYK/CLE under 197)
PLAY ON team with a lot of rest in last 2 weeks that is off an away win scoring 109+. 80-37-2 (Okla City -10)
PLAY ON great team by winning % 2H season, favorite coming off terrible loss. 89-37-4 ATS, 2-2 (Portland -3.5)
PLAY ON away fav off non-cover blowout loss vs home off game they covered. 42-15-1 ATS, 10-5 (Washington -1.5)
new stuff:
OPPOSE high scoring february home dogs. 49-12 ATS, 7-5 (Toronto -7, Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON small away fav after breaking a losing streak if they're allowing 100 ppg or less on season. 161-72-5, 3-1 (Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON rested team in Denver vs unrested opponent. 47-20-1 ATS, 14-3 when opposing unrested Denver (Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON rested team off away loss with more FG vs unrested opponent not off a dominating win. 82-45-6 ATS, 7-7-1 (Phoenix -7.5)
subset: opponent playing after a very long game. 37-12-2 ATS (Phoenix -7.5)
OPPOSE high scoring february home dogs. 49-12 ATS, 7-5 (Toronto -7, Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON small away fav after breaking a losing streak if they're allowing 100 ppg or less on season. 161-72-5, 3-1 (Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON rested team in Denver vs unrested opponent. 47-20-1 ATS, 14-3 when opposing unrested Denver (Brooklyn -2)
PLAY ON rested team off away loss with more FG vs unrested opponent not off a dominating win. 82-45-6 ATS, 7-7-1 (Phoenix -7.5)
subset: opponent playing after a very long game. 37-12-2 ATS (Phoenix -7.5)
